YESTERDAY
Pittsburgh won the series finale yesterday afternoon, 2-1, as the Cardinals managed just 5 hits in 31 at-bats. Alec Burleson's first-inning home run (24) gave St. Louis a brief lead before Spencer Horwitz's eighth-inning sacrifice fly proved to be the difference.
NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 100-59 | - | W2 |
| Cubs | 88-71 | 12.0 | W1 |
| Pirates | 81-78 | 19.0 | W1 |
| Cardinals | 77-82 | 23.0 | L1 |
| Reds | 74-85 | 26.0 | W1 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | PIT | Away | L 1-2 |
| Sep 23 | PIT | Away | W 5-1 |
| Sep 22 | PIT | Away | L 0-2 |
| Sep 20 | WSH | Home | W 5-3 |
| Sep 19 | WSH | Home | L 5-8 (11) |
| Sep 18 | WSH | Home | L 1-9 |
| Sep 16 | SF | Home | L 5-6 (10) |
| Sep 15 | SF | Home | L 3-10 |
| Sep 14 | SF | Home | W 2-1 |
| Sep 13 | CWS | Home | W 3-1 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Michael McGreevy (RHP, Cardinals): McGreevy is 7-9 with a 3.84 ERA across 164.0 innings and 30 starts, striking out 113 and walking 46 (WHIP 1.25). His ERA sits at average among NL pitchers with at least 60 innings this season, ranking 66th of 130 (league average 3.90), and his WHIP lands at average as well, 63rd of 130 (league average 1.25). He ranks among the better control artists in the group -- 32nd of 130 in walk rate at 6.8%, which clears the excellent cutoff of 6.8% -- and generates ground balls at an above-average clip, 42nd of 130 in ground-ball rate at 51.4%. The strikeout rate is where he trails the field: at 16.7%, he ranks 113th of 130 (league average 22.7%), below the poor cutoff of 18.3%. The profile is a contact-management starter who limits walks and induces ground balls rather than missing bats.
Robert Gasser (LHP, Brewers): Gasser is 5-5 with a 4.01 ERA across 103.1 innings and 19 starts, striking out 94 and walking 34 (WHIP 1.24). His ERA ranks 75th of 130 NL pitchers with at least 60 innings (league average 3.90), landing at average. His WHIP is 59th of 130 (league average 1.25), also average. Gasser's strikeout rate of 21.2% ranks 71st of 130, below the league average of 22.7% but within the average band. He works in his home park tonight: his home ERA sits at 3.62 over 49.2 innings, compared with 4.36 on the road over 53.2 innings.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Yesterday's lineup)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS | 2026 Slash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .290 | .802 | .246/.344/.371 |
| 2 | Herrera | C | R | .231 | .729 | .244/.356/.382 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .358 | .933 | .279/.343/.464 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .274 | .905 | .271/.330/.467 |
| 5 | Bernal | DH | S | .435 | 1.154 | SSS |
| 6 | Torres | LF | L | .244 | .668 | .232/.308/.335 |
| 7 | Saggese | 3B | R | .226 | .605 | .238/.302/.364 |
| 8 | Church | CF | L | .273 | .712 | .251/.295/.371 |
| 9 | Winn | SS | R | .254 | .679 | .233/.309/.319 |
Handedness: 4 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Saggese, Winn), 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Torres, Church), 1 SHB (Bernal).
Brewers (From active roster)
14 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Vaughn | 1B | R |
| Naylor | C | L |
| Turang | 2B | L |
| Yelich | DH | L |
| Pratt | SS | R |
| Hamilton | 3B | L |
| Mitchell | CF | L |
| Sánchez | C | R |
| Chourio | LF | R |
| Bauers | 1B | L |
| Ortiz | SS | R |
| Lara | RF | S |
| Frelick | RF | L |
| Contreras | C | R |
Handedness: 6 RHB (Vaughn, Pratt, Sánchez, Chourio, Ortiz, Contreras), 7 LHB (Naylor, Turang, Yelich, Hamilton, Mitchell, Bauers, Frelick), 1 SHB (Lara).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
Cardinals
JJ Wetherholt -- 2026-09-16: St. Louis Cardinals activated 2B JJ Wetherholt from the 10-day injured list.
Peter Strzelecki -- 2026-09-16: St. Louis Cardinals activated RHP Peter Strzelecki from the 15-day injured list.
Joshua Báez -- 2026-09-18: St. Louis Cardinals placed LF Joshua Báez on the 10-day injured list. Left oblique strain.
JJ Wetherholt returned to the lineup September 16 after activation from the 10-day injured list. Peter Strzelecki was activated from the 15-day injured list the same day and designated for assignment. Joshua Báez went on the 10-day injured list September 18 with a left oblique strain, leaving the Cardinals without him against Milwaukee tonight.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 4 | 3 | 0 | .000 | .250 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Iván Herrera | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.500 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Masyn Winn | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Walker | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Alec Burleson (4 PA), Iván Herrera (4 PA), Thomas Saggese (2 PA), Masyn Winn (2 PA), Jordan Walker (1 PA).
All five Cardinals with career BvP history against Robert Gasser carry samples below 10 AB, so every line is noise rather than signal.
Iván Herrera's career line reads 1.000/1.000/2.500 across 4 PA (2 AB), including a home run -- a two-at-bat flash that carries no predictive weight. Masyn Winn is 1-for-2 career. On the other side, Alec Burleson is 0-for-3 with a walk across 4 PA, Thomas Saggese is 0-for-2 across 2 PA, and Jordan Walker is 0-for-1 in his lone career plate appearance against Gasser. None of the five batters meets both danger thresholds (10 PA and .400 AVG).
JJ Wetherholt, Leo Bernal, Bryan Torres, and Nathan Church have no career BvP history against Gasser on file; for those four, his 2026 platoon work is the available frame of reference.
No significant bench BvP history.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
No data available for this section.
Milwaukee Brewers batters carry no career history against Michael McGreevy on file; no career BvP figures apply to tonight's matchup.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K | 2026 PA | 2026 AVG | 2026 OPS | Leads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn R | 163 | .255 | .313 | .349 | 2 | 11 | 31 | 139 | .270 | .715 | leads 2026 |
| Alec Burleson L | 127 | .271 | .310 | .398 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 204 | .215 | .554 | leads 2026 |
| Iván Herrera R | 124 | .330 | .455 | .660 | 9 | 19 | 18 | 214 | .263 | .820 | leads 2026 |
| Jordan Walker R | 107 | .255 | .318 | .347 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 171 | .285 | .885 | leads 2026 |
| Thomas Saggese R | 68 | .273 | .279 | .348 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 51 | SSS | SSS | leads 2025 |
| Nathan Church L | 14 | .417 | .417 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 102 | .237 | .620 | leads 2026 |
2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs LHP (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.
Robert Gasser holds a sharp platoon split in 2026: .574 OPS allowed against left-handed batters across 134 batters faced, compared with .782 OPS allowed against right-handed batters across 309 batters faced. That shapes tonight's split clearly. St. Louis sends four left-handed hitters -- JJ Wetherholt, Alec Burleson, Bryan Torres, and Nathan Church -- into the side of the ledger where Gasser has been toughest.
Among those four, Burleson faces the sharpest mismatch. His 2026 OPS vs. left-handed pitching is .554 across 204 plate appearances, 151st of 163 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs. left-handers (league average .727). Church's 2026 mark vs. left-handers is .620 across 102 plate appearances, 126th of 163 (league average .727). Wetherholt stands at .670 vs. left-handed pitching across 215 plate appearances this season, 105th of 163 (league average .727). Torres has 30 plate appearances vs. left-handed pitching in 2026 -- too small a sample to grade.
The four right-handed bats face Gasser's weaker split. Jordan Walker leads that group: his 2026 OPS vs. left-handed pitching is .885 across 171 plate appearances, 20th of 163 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs. left-handers (league average .727). Iván Herrera checks in at .820 across 214 plate appearances, 42nd of 163 (league average .727). Masyn Winn's 2026 mark is .715 across 139 plate appearances, 86th of 163 (league average .727). Thomas Saggese's 2026 sample vs. left-handed pitching is 51 plate appearances -- below the floor for a reliable rate -- so his 2025 line is the reference: .627 OPS across 68 plate appearances, 131st of 181 2025 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs. left-handers (league average .702). Leo Bernal, the switch-hitter, has 24 plate appearances vs. left-handed pitching in 2026, too small a sample to grade.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K | 2026 PA | 2026 AVG | 2026 OPS | Leads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Contreras R | 477 | .267 | .354 | .422 | 14 | 57 | 88 | 451 | .269 | .758 | leads 2026 |
| Brice Turang L | 467 | .280 | .358 | .454 | 15 | 51 | 108 | 471 | .288 | .896 | leads 2026 |
| Jackson Chourio R | 440 | .245 | .280 | .422 | 14 | 19 | 88 | 397 | .266 | .767 | leads 2026 |
| Christian Yelich L | 438 | .274 | .356 | .504 | 25 | 47 | 110 | 359 | .244 | .726 | leads 2026 |
| Sal Frelick L | 420 | .282 | .349 | .433 | 12 | 37 | 57 | 282 | .243 | .649 | leads 2026 |
| Joey Ortiz R | 363 | .206 | .259 | .278 | 5 | 23 | 54 | 261 | .280 | .758 | leads 2026 |
| Bo Naylor L | 329 | .201 | .294 | .410 | 12 | 38 | 86 | 84 | .130 | .449 | leads 2026 |
| Andrew Vaughn R | 315 | .230 | .273 | .388 | 11 | 17 | 62 | 198 | .285 | .764 | leads 2026 |
| Jake Bauers L | 201 | .238 | .358 | .411 | 7 | 30 | 53 | 409 | .266 | .868 | leads 2026 |
| David Hamilton L | 174 | .203 | .263 | .354 | 6 | 13 | 41 | 300 | .240 | .646 | leads 2026 |
| Gary Sánchez R | 59 | .245 | .322 | .491 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 148 | .183 | .730 | leads 2026 |
| Garrett Mitchell L | 54 | .208 | .278 | .333 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 394 | .270 | .800 | leads 2026 |
2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs RHP (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.
Michael McGreevy is a right-handed starter, so the Brewers' seven left-handed bats face his weaker side: 2026 vs left-handed batters, he has allowed a .759 OPS across 428 batters faced, compared with .669 OPS allowed against right-handed batters across 249 batters faced. The group's 2026 vs-RHP lines lead the read for every player whose sample clears the 60-PA floor.
Brice Turang (2B, L) leads the lineup against right-handed pitching. His 2026 vs-RHP line reads .288/.390/.506 over 471 PA -- he ranks 12th of 230 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching in OPS (.896; league average .701). Jake Bauers (1B, L) follows: .266/.396/.472 over 409 PA, ranking 18th of 230 in the same pool (.868 OPS; league average .701). Garrett Mitchell (CF, L) posts .270 AVG and .800 OPS across 394 PA vs RHP, ranking 44th of 230.
Christian Yelich (DH, L) sits at .244 AVG and .726 OPS over 359 PA vs right-handers this season -- 102nd of 230 in the split pool (league average .701). Sal Frelick (RF, L) is at .243/.309/.340 over 282 PA, ranking 160th of 230 (.649 OPS; league average .701). David Hamilton (3B, L) posts .240/.314/.332 across 300 PA vs RHP, ranking 162nd of 230 (.646 OPS; league average .701).
Bo Naylor (C, L) has 84 PA vs right-handed pitching in 2026 -- the table leads with that 2026 figure (.130 AVG, .449 OPS). He ranks 225th of 230 NL batters with at least 60 PA vs RHP in OPS (.449; league average .701), the lowest mark in this lineup against McGreevy's hand.
Among the right-handed and switch-hitting batters, Jackson Chourio (LF, R) posts .266/.322/.445 over 397 PA vs RHP -- 64th of 230 (.767 OPS; league average .701). Andrew Vaughn (1B, R) is at .285/.369/.395 across 198 PA, ranking 68th of 230 (.764 OPS; league average .701). William Contreras (C, R) sits at .269 AVG and .758 OPS over 451 PA vs right-handers, 74th of 230 (league average .701). Joey Ortiz (SS, R) is at .280 AVG and .758 OPS across 261 PA vs RHP, also 74th of 230. Gary Sánchez (C, R) posts .183 AVG and .730 OPS over 148 PA, 100th of 230. Cooper Pratt (SS, R) is at .762 OPS vs RHP across 189 PA, 69th of 230 (league average .701). Luis Lara (RF, S) bats from both sides; his 2026 vs-RHP line covers 134 PA (.683 OPS), ranking 130th of 230 (league average .701).
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K | 2026 BF | 2026 AVG | 2026 OPS | Leads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Gasser | vs RHB | 20 | .313 | .450 | .563 | 1.013 | 1 | 4 | 309 | .266 | .782 | leads 2026 |
| Robert Gasser | vs LHB | 9 | .000 | .222 | .000 | .222 | 0 | 1 | 134 | .169 | .574 | leads 2026 |
| Michael McGreevy | vs LHB | 190 | .318 | .368 | .543 | .911 | 9 | 27 | 428 | .263 | .759 | leads 2026 |
| Michael McGreevy | vs RHB | 210 | .225 | .255 | .325 | .580 | 3 | 31 | 249 | .241 | .669 | leads 2026 |
Robert Gasser allowed a 2026 OPS of .574 across 134 batters faced vs left-handed batters — Robert Gasser ranks 35th of 231 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs left-handed batters in OPS allowed (vs LHB) (.574; league average .714). Against right-handed batters his 2026 OPS allowed climbs to .782 across 309 batters faced — Robert Gasser ranks 178th of 244 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs right-handed batters in OPS allowed (vs RHB) (.782; league average .698). The Cardinals send four right-handed bats (Herrera, Walker, Saggese, Winn), four left-handed bats (Wetherholt, Burleson, Torres, Church), and one switch-hitter (Bernal) against the left-hander, giving St. Louis a mix that lands the majority of its at-bats on Gasser's weaker side.
Michael McGreevy allowed a 2026 OPS of .759 across 428 batters faced vs left-handed batters — Michael McGreevy ranks 143rd of 231 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs left-handed batters in OPS allowed (vs LHB) (.759; league average .714). Against right-handed batters his 2026 OPS allowed is .669 across 249 batters faced — Michael McGreevy ranks 101st of 244 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs right-handed batters in OPS allowed (vs RHB) (.669; league average .698). Milwaukee's available roster carries seven left-handed bats (Naylor, Turang, Yelich, Hamilton, Mitchell, Bauers, Frelick), six right-handed bats (Vaughn, Pratt, Sánchez, Chourio, Ortiz, Contreras), and one switch-hitter (Lara); the left-handed depth in the Brewers' pool sits on McGreevy's more-exposed side.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | 2026 IP | 2026 ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Gasser | Away | 13 | 3.0 | 6.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 53.2 | 4.36 |
| Robert Gasser | Home | 16 | 2.2 | 0.00 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 49.2 | 3.62 |
| Michael McGreevy | Away | 188 | 45.2 | 3.55 | 24 | 9 | 6 | 83.0 | 3.80 |
| Michael McGreevy | Home | 212 | 50.0 | 5.22 | 34 | 11 | 6 | 81.0 | 3.89 |
Michael McGreevy pitches away tonight, his stronger half this season: .701 OPS allowed on the road compared with .751 at home. His 2026 road ERA of 3.80 ranks 82nd of 188 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched on the road, against a league average of 4.04. The 2025 road line — 45.2 innings, 3.55 ERA across 188 batters faced — points the same direction. At home last season, 212 batters faced and a 5.22 ERA; tonight he is on the side where those numbers do not apply.
Robert Gasser pitches at home tonight, also his stronger half this season: .689 OPS allowed at home compared with .746 on the road. His 2026 home ERA of 3.62 ranks 84th of 195 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched at home, against a league average of 3.89. The 2025 home and away rows in the table each cover fewer than 20 innings; the 2026 figures carry the weight for both starters' venue splits tonight.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB | 2026 BF | 2026 AVG | 2026 OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Gasser | TTO1 | 18 | -- | -- | 18 PA | 0 | 3 | 3 | 173 | .237 | .693 |
| Robert Gasser | TTO2 | 11 | -- | -- | 11 PA | 1 | 2 | 1 | 171 | .252 | .739 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO1 | 154 | .282 | .465 | .792 | 5 | 22 | 8 | 270 | .250 | .691 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO2 | 152 | .271 | .417 | .715 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 267 | .251 | .732 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO3 | 94 | .241 | .379 | .677 | 3 | 22 | 6 | 140 | .271 | .778 |
Robert Gasser has pitched into a third pass in 17 of 19 starts. In the 17 starts he pitched into a third pass, hitters posted a .724 OPS on the second pass -- 153 PA. From the third pass on in those same starts: .763 OPS -- 74 PA. Early hooks: 2 starts, 18 PA. Michael McGreevy has pitched into a third pass in 28 of 30 starts. In the 28 starts he pitched into a third pass, hitters posted a .695 OPS on the second pass -- 252 PA. From the third pass on in those same starts: .779 OPS -- 140 PA. Early hooks: 2 starts, 15 PA. Per-pass rate stats resting on fewer than 50 PA render as their PA count, never as a decimal; 2026 companion columns carry their own 60 BF floor (below floor renders SSS).
Michael McGreevy has pitched into a third pass in 28 of 30 starts. On the first pass, 2026 hitters have posted a .691 OPS across 270 batters faced; his 2025 first-pass figure of .792 OPS across 154 PA ranked 240th of 344 NL pitchers with at least 50 PA in that pass (league average .734). On the second pass in his 28 starts that reached a third -- 252 PA -- hitters posted a .695 OPS; his 2025 second-pass figure of .715 OPS across 152 PA ranked 55th of 132 NL pitchers with at least 50 PA in that pass (league average .742). From the third pass on in those same 28 starts -- 140 PA -- hitters have posted a .779 OPS, his weakest pass this season; his 2025 third-pass figure of .677 OPS across 94 PA ranked 24th of 84 NL pitchers with at least 50 PA in that pass (league average .781).
Robert Gasser has pitched into a third pass in 17 of 19 starts. His 2025 first-pass sample of 18 PA is too small to report split rates reliably; 2026 first-pass hitters have posted a .693 OPS across 173 batters faced. On the second pass in his 17 starts that reached a third -- 153 PA -- hitters posted a .724 OPS; 2026 second-pass hitters stand at .739 OPS across 171 batters faced. From the third pass on in those same 17 starts -- 74 PA -- hitters have posted a .763 OPS, his weakest pass this season; 2026 third-pass hitters also stand at .763 OPS across 74 batters faced.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% | 2026 IP | 2026 ERA | 2026 WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% | 140.0 | 3.66 | 1.34 |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% | 79.0 | 2.73 | 1.08 |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% | 64.0 | 4.08 | 1.28 |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% | 164.0 | 3.84 | 1.25 |
2025's league average strand rate was 68.8%, a historical baseline from the Neon proxy. Among the four Cardinals relievers in this table, Riley O'Brien's 2025 strand rate of 70.0% across 10 inherited runners sits closest to that mark; his 2026 line reads 64.0 IP, 4.08 ERA, and 1.28 WHIP. Kyle Leahy carried the heaviest inherited-runner load in 2025 -- 29 runners across 21 entries -- and stranded 62.1% of them; his 2026 season reads 140.0 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.34 WHIP. Gordon Graceffo's 2025 strand rate of 54.5% on 11 inherited runners was the lowest in this group; in 2026 he has logged 79.0 IP with a 2.73 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Michael McGreevy stranded all 3 inherited runners he faced in 2025, a 100.0% rate on a sample too small to carry reliable weight; his 2026 line stands at 164.0 IP, 3.84 ERA, 1.25 WHIP.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Gasser | 17 | -- | -- | -- |
| Michael McGreevy | 307 | 49.2% | 25.7% | 24.4% |
Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.
Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- MIL
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG | 2026 GO+AO | 2026 GO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers | -- | -- | -- | 192 | 50.0% |
| Jackson Chourio | .302 | .586 | .098 | 235 | 48.1% |
| William Contreras | .246 | .660 | .061 | 323 | 44.0% |
| Sal Frelick | .273 | .696 | .080 | 224 | 53.6% |
| David Hamilton | .226 | -- | -- | 179 | 48.0% |
| Garrett Mitchell | -- | -- | -- | 171 | 64.3% |
| Bo Naylor | .150 | .583 | .078 | 53 | 35.8% |
| Joey Ortiz | .290 | .453 | .089 | 197 | 51.8% |
| Gary Sánchez | -- | -- | -- | 117 | 48.7% |
| Brice Turang | .340 | .609 | .082 | 257 | 56.0% |
| Andrew Vaughn | .210 | .667 | .065 | 149 | 48.3% |
| Christian Yelich | .248 | .630 | .130 | 205 | 64.9% |
Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.
2025 GB% types every ball in play; 2026 GO% is the ground-out share of outs in play (GO / (GO+AO), statsapi) -- different measures, both labeled. 2026 GO% reads "SSS" below 50 GO+AO; at or above it the 2026 figure leads and the 2025 GB% is last season's.
Michael McGreevy generated ground balls on 49.2% of balls in play last season across 307 BIP, with fly balls at 25.7% and line drives at 24.4%. Robert Gasser's 2025 sample is only 17 BIP -- too small to report rates reliably.
Against McGreevy's ground-ball profile, the Milwaukee lineup shows varied tendencies in 2026. Brice Turang posts a 2026 GO% of 56.0% across 257 outs in play; Sal Frelick (53.6%, 224 GO+AO) and Joey Ortiz (51.8%, 197 GO+AO) are similarly ground-oriented. Christian Yelich (64.9%, 205 GO+AO) and Garrett Mitchell (64.3%, 171 GO+AO) post the lineup's highest 2026 GO% figures, though Garrett Mitchell's 2025 batted-ball sample is too small to report rates. Jackson Chourio (48.1%, 235 GO+AO) and William Contreras (44.0%, 323 GO+AO) sit closer to the middle of the distribution. Bo Naylor's 2026 GO% of 35.8% across 53 GO+AO stands out as the lowest in the group, and his last season ground-ball average of .150 reflects weak contact when the ball is on the ground.
Line drives carry the most offensive value for most of these hitters. Sal Frelick (.696 LD AVG last season), William Contreras (.660), Andrew Vaughn (.667), and Christian Yelich (.630) all make strong contact on liners. Brice Turang (.340 GB AVG last season) generates the most offensive value among the group when he keeps the ball on the ground -- a meaningful pairing with McGreevy's ground-ball tendency. Jake Bauers and Gary Sánchez have too few 2025 balls of each type for per-type averages; Bauers had 192 GO+AO in 2026 (GO% 50.0%) and Sánchez 117 (GO% 48.7%).
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 14 | 80.2 | 4.24 | .266 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 2 | 8.2 | 9.35 | .385 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 1 | 5.2 | 0.00 | .056 | -- | -- |
Jimmy Crooks and Yohel Pozo each appear in the 2025 battery data but are not on the Cardinals' active roster tonight. Iván Herrera projects behind the plate; he did not catch Michael McGreevy in 2025, the season these pairing figures cover.
Pedro Pagés is the only catcher in the table still on the roster. Over 14 games and 80.2 innings with McGreevy in 2025, he caught a 4.24 ERA and a .266 average against. Crooks' two-game sample (8.2 IP) showed a 9.35 ERA and a .385 average against; Pozo's single start (5.2 IP) produced a 0.00 ERA and a .056 average against, though both samples are too small to draw conclusions from.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Milwaukee baserunners (2026): David Hamilton leads the active roster with 30 stolen bases on 36 attempts (83.3%). Jackson Chourio has 23 stolen bases on 28 attempts (82.1%). Brice Turang has 19 stolen bases on 24 attempts (79.2%). Christian Yelich has 11 stolen bases on 12 attempts (91.7%). Jake Bauers has 11 stolen bases on 17 attempts (64.7%). Garrett Mitchell has 14 stolen bases on 23 attempts (60.9%). Joey Ortiz has 9 stolen bases on 14 attempts (64.3%). Sal Frelick has 7 stolen bases on 10 attempts (70.0%). William Contreras is 1 for 3 this season -- too small a sample for a rate.
Cardinals catchers (2026): Pedro Pagés has thrown out 19 of 60 baserunners (31.7% CS) across 518.1 innings in 59 starts. Leo Bernal has thrown out 4 of 22 baserunners (18.2% CS) across 130.2 innings in 14 starts.
Milwaukee catchers (2026): William Contreras has allowed 47 stolen bases and thrown out 25 of 72 attempts (34.7% CS) across 1,067.2 innings in 119 starts -- the most active arm among the three catchers on the roster. Gary Sánchez has thrown out 6 of 25 baserunners (24.0% CS) across 330.0 innings in 37 starts. Bo Naylor has thrown out 2 of 24 baserunners (8.3% CS) across 219.0 innings in 25 starts.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2B | 35 | 24 | 4 | 0.973 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Thomas Saggese | SS | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0.988 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 3B | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0.939 |
| Iván Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Masyn Winn anchors the Cardinals infield at shortstop tonight, bringing a 2025 fielding line of .994 across 129 games with 64 double plays and 3 errors. Jordan Walker plays right field, where his 2025 record shows .981 across 108 games with 4 errors. Alec Burleson starts at first base; his 2025 work at that position covers 50 games, 27 double plays, 4 errors, and a .990 fielding percentage. Thomas Saggese is at third base tonight, a position where he logged 18 games in 2025 with 2 errors and a .939 fielding percentage. Iván Herrera catches; his 2025 catching record shows 14 games, 1 error, and a .989 fielding percentage. Nathan Church starts in center field, where his 2025 record covers 18 games with no errors and a 1.000 fielding percentage. Bryan Torres starts in left field; no 2025 fielding row for Torres appears in the table, so no defensive figures apply to his start tonight.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Against the Milwaukee Brewers from 2022 through 2025, the Cardinals went 26-32, with their only winning season in that stretch coming in 2022 (10-9); they dropped each of the following three campaigns, going 5-8 in both 2023 and 2024 before finishing 6-7 last season. Tonight opens a three-game series at American Family Field.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% | 2026 PA | 2026 K% | 2026 BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% | 664 | 17.9% | 8.3% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% | 528 | 21.6% | 8.9% |
| Iván Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% | 705 | 18.9% | 10.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% | 655 | 26.0% | 7.6% |
| Thomas Saggese | 295 | 83 | 28.1% | 16 | 5.4% | 169 | 26.6% | 7.7% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% | 462 | 16.9% | 5.4% |
Gasser is stronger against left-handed batters this season (.574 OPS allowed, compared with .782 OPS allowed against right-handed batters), and four Cardinals starters bat from the left -- JJ Wetherholt, Alec Burleson, Bryan Torres, and Nathan Church. Wetherholt's 2026 K% is 16.7%, Burleson's 17.9%, and Iván Herrera's 18.9% -- each below the league average of 22.1%. Walker's 2025 K% was 31.8% across 396 PA; 2026 to date: 26.0% across 655 PA. Thomas Saggese's 2026 BB% of 7.7% and Church's 2026 BB% of 5.4% each fall below the league average of 8.9%.
Brewers
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% | 2026 PA | 2026 K% | 2026 BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang | 659 | 150 | 22.8% | 66 | 10.0% | 667 | 25.3% | 13.3% |
| William Contreras | 659 | 120 | 18.2% | 84 | 12.7% | 631 | 14.7% | 9.5% |
| Christian Yelich | 644 | 167 | 25.9% | 64 | 9.9% | 489 | 26.8% | 9.6% |
| Sal Frelick | 590 | 80 | 13.6% | 47 | 8.0% | 379 | 10.0% | 8.2% |
| Jackson Chourio | 589 | 121 | 20.5% | 30 | 5.1% | 563 | 23.8% | 8.2% |
| Joey Ortiz | 506 | 74 | 14.6% | 27 | 5.3% | 411 | 20.0% | 8.3% |
| Andrew Vaughn | 447 | 80 | 17.9% | 31 | 6.9% | 331 | 16.0% | 10.6% |
| Bo Naylor | 414 | 99 | 23.9% | 45 | 10.9% | 98 | 24.5% | 7.1% |
| Jake Bauers | 218 | 59 | 27.1% | 32 | 14.7% | 565 | 26.7% | 16.5% |
| David Hamilton | 194 | 47 | 24.2% | 13 | 6.7% | 376 | 22.3% | 8.5% |
| Gary Sánchez | 101 | 27 | 26.7% | 4 | 4.0% | 269 | 21.2% | 17.1% |
| Garrett Mitchell | 78 | 25 | 32.1% | 7 | 9.0% | 520 | 31.9% | 11.2% |
Seven of the Brewers' left-handed hitters face McGreevy's weaker split: he has allowed a .759 OPS against left-handed batters this season, compared with .669 OPS allowed against right-handed batters. His 2026 K% of 16.7% is below the league average of 22.1%, so contact is available. Garrett Mitchell's 2026 K% of 31.9% across 520 PA is the lineup's highest; 2025: 32.1% across 78 PA. Sal Frelick's 2026 K% of 10.0% across 379 PA is the lineup's lowest; 2025: 13.6% across 590 PA. Andrew Vaughn is stronger against left-handed pitching this season (.938 OPS, compared with .764 OPS against right-handed pitching); he is one of six right-handed hitters facing McGreevy today -- McGreevy ranks 101st of 244 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs right-handed batters in OPS allowed (.669; league average .698).
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% | 2026 GO+AO | 2026 GO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% | 317 | 51.4% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% | 251 | 46.2% |
| Iván Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% | 321 | 56.4% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% | 269 | 49.1% |
| Thomas Saggese | 189 | 41.8% | 29.6% | 28.6% | 73 | 42.5% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | -- | -- | -- | 248 | 46.0% |
Robert Gasser's 2026 ground-ball rate sits at 38.4% against a league average of 47.0%, making him one of the more fly-ball-oriented starters the Cardinals will see. Two of the five Cardinals with publishable 2025 batted-ball rates sit above the league's 47.0% ground-ball rate -- Iván Herrera most heavily at 52.6% GB% last season, then Jordan Walker at 48.9% -- while Masyn Winn (39.6%) and Alec Burleson (42.0%) sit below it. Herrera's 2026 ground-out share of 56.4% across 321 outs in play keeps him on the ground-ball side. Thomas Saggese posted a 41.8% GB% last season across 189 balls in play, with a 2026 GO% of 42.5% across 73 outs. Nathan Church has 37 balls in play last season, below the 50-BIP floor, so no 2025 rate applies; his 2026 GO% of 46.0% across 248 outs in play is on file.
Brewers
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% | 2026 GO+AO | 2026 GO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sal Frelick | 432 | 47.5% | 28.9% | 23.6% | 224 | 53.6% |
| William Contreras | 429 | 53.1% | 22.8% | 24.0% | 323 | 44.0% |
| Brice Turang | 405 | 48.6% | 24.2% | 27.2% | 257 | 56.0% |
| Jackson Chourio | 404 | 45.0% | 30.4% | 24.5% | 235 | 48.1% |
| Joey Ortiz | 385 | 45.7% | 31.9% | 22.3% | 197 | 51.8% |
| Christian Yelich | 376 | 61.2% | 14.4% | 24.5% | 205 | 64.9% |
| Andrew Vaughn | 312 | 44.2% | 29.8% | 26.0% | 149 | 48.3% |
| Bo Naylor | 243 | 32.9% | 42.4% | 24.7% | 53 | 35.8% |
| David Hamilton | 121 | 43.8% | 33.9% | 22.3% | 179 | 48.0% |
| Jake Bauers | 116 | 37.1% | 35.3% | 27.6% | 192 | 50.0% |
| Gary Sánchez | 59 | 45.8% | 37.3% | 16.9% | 117 | 48.7% |
| Garrett Mitchell | 42 | -- | -- | -- | 171 | 64.3% |
Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.
2025 GB% types every ball in play; 2026 GO% is the ground-out share of outs in play (GO / (GO+AO), statsapi) -- different measures, both labeled. 2026 GO% reads "SSS" below 50 GO+AO; at or above it the 2026 figure leads and the 2025 GB% is last season's.
Michael McGreevy's 2026 ground-ball rate is 51.4%, above the league average of 47.0%, and his last season (2025) figure across 307 balls in play was 49.2% GB% -- consistent ground-ball shape. The Brewers lineup sets up as a strong match for that tendency. Christian Yelich leads the group at 61.2% GB% last season across 376 balls in play, with a 2026 GO% of 64.9% across 205 outs; William Contreras follows at 53.1% GB% across 429 balls in play, though his 2026 GO% of 44.0% across 323 outs diverges from his historical ground-ball shape. Brice Turang posted 48.6% GB% last season and a 2026 GO% of 56.0% across 257 outs. Sal Frelick sits at 47.5% GB% last season across 432 balls in play, with a 2026 GO% of 53.6% across 224 outs. Jackson Chourio at 45.0% GB% and Joey Ortiz at 45.7% both sat just below the league's 47.0% last season. Bo Naylor's last season 32.9% GB% across 243 balls in play is the outlier -- he put 42.4% of his balls in play in the air last season, and his 2026 GO% of 35.8% across 53 outs in play is the lowest on the roster. Gary Sánchez posted 45.8% GB% last season across 59 balls in play, with a 2026 GO% of 48.7% across 117 outs. Garrett Mitchell has 42 balls in play last season, below the 50-BIP floor; his 2026 GO% of 64.3% across 171 outs is on file.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McGreevy | 95.2 | 58 | 14.5% | 20 | 5.0% | 2.90 |
| Robert Gasser | 5.2 | 5 | 17.2% | 4 | 13.8% | 1.25 |
The 2025 table captures a full season of work for Michael McGreevy (95.2 innings, 400 batters faced) and a small sample for Robert Gasser (5.2 innings, 29 batters faced -- too small to draw conclusions from either rate). McGreevy's 2025 strikeout rate of 14.5% and walk rate of 5.0% yield a K/BB ratio of 2.90, the floor of his profile: he limits free passes while missing fewer bats than most starters. In 2026, McGreevy's strikeout rate is 16.7% -- poor among NL pitchers with at least 60 innings, 113th of 130, below the 18.3% cutoff -- while his walk rate of 6.8% is excellent by that same group's standard, clearing the excellent cutoff of 6.8% at 32nd of 130. His 2026 walk rate is below the league average of 8.9%; his strikeout rate of 16.7% sits below the league average of 22.1%. Gasser carries a 21.2% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate through 2026, both average among NL pitchers with at least 60 innings: his K% ranks 71st of 130 and his walk rate falls between the average cutoff (8.9%) and the above-average cutoff (7.5%).
KEY MATCHUPS
Gasser vs Cardinals right-handed bats. Robert Gasser is stronger against left-handed batters this season: .574 OPS allowed, compared with .782 OPS allowed against right-handed batters. Jordan Walker, Iván Herrera, Masyn Winn, and Thomas Saggese -- all right-handed -- enter on that weaker side. Walker is the sharpest threat among the four. Herrera ranks 42nd of 163 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs left-handed pitching in OPS (.820), and Winn 86th of 163 (.715; league average .727). Saggese's 2026 sample against left-handed pitching is 51 plate appearances, below the floor for a split grade; last season he ranked 131st of 181 2025 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs left-handed pitching in OPS (vs LHP) (.627; league average .702). His 2026 vs-right-handers mark is .592 OPS across 118 plate appearances (188th of 230 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching).
McGreevy vs Brewers left-handed bats. Michael McGreevy allowed a .759 OPS to left-handed batters this season, compared with .669 to right-handed batters -- 143rd of 231 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs left-handed batters (league average .714). The Brewers carry seven left-handed hitters. Brice Turang is the headliner against a right-handed starter: he ranks 12th of 230 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching in OPS (vs RHP) (.896; league average .701). Christian Yelich ranks 102nd of 230 (.726), Garrett Mitchell 44th (.800). Jake Bauers bats left-handed, so he also lands on McGreevy's weaker side, though his own stronger split is against left-handers (.927 OPS vs LHP, 11th of 163). David Hamilton ranks 162nd of 230 vs right-handed pitching (.646). Bo Naylor's 2026 vs-right-handers mark is .449 OPS across 84 plate appearances (225th of 230 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching).
McGreevy third-time-through exposure. Michael McGreevy has pitched into a third pass in 28 of 30 starts. His third-pass OPS allowed this season is .778, rising from .691 in the first pass and .732 in the second -- his third pass is his weakest. Those third-pass figures come only from the 28 starts he was left in long enough to face the lineup a third time.
Gasser at home vs on the road. Robert Gasser is stronger at home this season: .689 OPS allowed, compared with .746 on the road. He pitches tonight at American Family Field, where he has posted a 3.62 ERA (84th of 195 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched at home; league average 3.89), versus 4.36 ERA on the road (118th of 188 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched on the road; league average 4.04).
WATCHLIST
-- Jordan Walker. If Walker sees elevated fastballs early in counts against Robert Gasser, watch whether he elevates: he ranks 15th of 172 NL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances in HR (28; league average 14.2), and tonight he bats on his stronger side.
-- Alec Burleson. If Burleson is moved or managed around in the lineup tonight, that is a sign the Cardinals are responding to his 2026 struggles against left-handed pitching, with a left-hander on the mound.
-- Michael McGreevy. If McGreevy reaches his third time through the Brewers' order, watch his pitch count and Oliver Marmol's hook: the third pass drives a higher OPS against him than the first or second, with Milwaukee's left-heavy lineup -- his weaker platoon side -- adding to that exposure.
-- David Hamilton / Jackson Chourio / Brice Turang. If any of the three reach base early, watch whether they test the Cardinals' catcher: Hamilton has stolen 30 bases in 36 attempts (83.3%) this season, Chourio 23 in 28 (82.1%), and Turang 19 in 24 (79.2%), forming a baserunning threat that could generate extra-base situations against McGreevy.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Jordan Walker performed against Robert Gasser in their career?
2. How has Masyn Winn performed against Robert Gasser in their career?
3. How has Jackson Chourio performed against Michael McGreevy in their career?
4. What are Michael McGreevy's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Jordan Walker's splits against left-handed and right-handed pitching in 2025?
6. What is Kyle Leahy's inherited-runner strand rate in 2025?
7. What are the park factors at American Family Field in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025