YESTERDAY

The Cardinals beat Pittsburgh 5-1 last night in game two of three at Pittsburgh, with Matthew Liberatore allowing one run over 5.2 innings and JJ Wetherholt going 3-for-4 to lead an offense that scored all five runs across the 3rd and 4th innings.

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

STARTING PITCHERS

Kyle Leahy (RHP, Cardinals): Leahy enters today at 10-5 with a 3.65 ERA across 138.0 innings and 29 starts, striking out 129 batters against 41 walks (1.34 WHIP). Among NL pitchers with at least 60 innings, that ERA ranks 56th of 130 -- average by this season's tier cutoffs -- while his WHIP of 1.34 sits 91st of 130, also average. His 22.0% strikeout rate is 65th of 130 in the NL, and his walk rate of 7.0% ranks 38th of 130, above average by this season's cutoff of 7.5%. Leahy's ground-ball rate of 53.6% ranks 32nd of 130 NL pitchers with at least 60 innings, above average by this season's cutoff.

Paul Skenes (RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates): Skenes is 10-11 with a 3.91 ERA over 168.0 innings and 31 starts, with 192 strikeouts and 47 walks (1.13 WHIP). His ERA of 3.91 ranks 70th of 130 NL pitchers with at least 60 innings, average by this season's tier cutoffs. His WHIP of 1.13 ranks 31st of 130, an excellent mark -- right at this season's excellent cutoff of 1.13. Skenes's strikeout rate of 27.9% ranks 29th of 130 in the NL, excellent by this season's cutoff of 26.4%, and his walk rate of 6.8% ranks at the excellent cutoff for that category as well.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Yesterday's lineup from last night)

Handedness: 4 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Fermín, Winn), 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church), 1 SHB (Bernal).

Pirates (Yesterday's lineup from last night)

Handedness: 4 RHB (Griffin, Flores, Gonzales, Triolo), 2 LHB (Lowe, O'Hearn), 3 SHB (Reynolds, Simon, Mangum).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Cardinals

JJ Wetherholt -- 2026-09-16: St. Louis Cardinals activated 2B JJ Wetherholt from the 10-day injured list.

Peter Strzelecki -- 2026-09-16: St. Louis Cardinals activated RHP Peter Strzelecki from the 15-day injured list.

Joshua Báez -- 2026-09-18: St. Louis Cardinals placed LF Joshua Báez on the 10-day injured list. Left oblique strain.

Pirates

Braxton Ashcraft -- 2026-09-07: Pittsburgh Pirates placed RHP Braxton Ashcraft on the 15-day injured list retroactive to September 7, 2026. Right arm discomfort.

Ryan O'Hearn -- 2026-09-11: Pittsburgh Pirates activated RF Ryan O'Hearn from the 10-day injured list.

Esmerlyn Valdez -- 2026-09-12: Pittsburgh Pirates placed RF Esmerlyn Valdez on the 10-day injured list. Left hamstring strain.

Kirby Yates -- 2026-09-22: Pittsburgh Pirates activated RHP Kirby Yates from the 15-day injured list.

On the Cardinals side, JJ Wetherholt returned from the injured list September 16 and is back at second base. Peter Strzelecki also rejoined the roster that day. Joshua Báez has been out since September 18 with a left oblique strain, leaving a gap in left field that today's lineup addresses without him.

Pittsburgh has had Ryan O'Hearn back in the lineup since his return September 11; he projects at first base. Braxton Ashcraft remains on the injured list with right arm discomfort. Esmerlyn Valdez has been out since September 12 with a left hamstring strain. Kirby Yates, who relieved yesterday, was activated September 22 and is back in the Pittsburgh bullpen.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

Small sample: Nolan Gorman (8 PA), Jordan Walker (7 PA), José Fermín (2 PA).

Four of the nine lineup starters have no career BvP history against Paul Skenes, leaving the matchup blind for JJ Wetherholt, Iván Herrera, Leo Bernal, and Nathan Church; his 2026 platoon work is the best available guide for those at-bats.

Among those with a sample, Alec Burleson carries the most encouraging line: .353/.389/.412 across 18 career plate appearances (17 AB), with just 3 strikeouts and 1 walk. At 18 PA the sample is meaningful rather than decisive, but it is the largest in the group and the most positive. Masyn Winn also has 18 plate appearances against Skenes and reads at the other end—.167/.167/.222 with no walks and 4 strikeouts, a combination that points to trouble making contact and getting on base.

Nolan Gorman (8 PA), Jordan Walker (7 PA), and José Fermín (2 PA) each fall below 10 plate appearances; those samples are noise, not signal. No batter clears both danger thresholds (10 PA and a .400 average): Burleson’s .353 career average across 18 PA is the closest, but his average sits below the .400 mark.

No significant bench BvP history.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Small sample: Bryan Reynolds (4 PA), Nick Gonzales (3 PA), Jake Mangum (1 PA), Ryan O'Hearn (2 PA), Ronny Simon (1 PA), Jared Triolo (1 PA).

Six Pittsburgh batters carry career BvP history against Kyle Leahy, all in small samples. Bryan Reynolds has the most exposure at 4 PA, going 0-for-4 with 3 strikeouts (.000/.000/.000). Nick Gonzales is 1-for-2 across 3 PA (.500/.333/.500). Ryan O'Hearn is 1-for-1 with a walk across 2 PA (1.000/1.000/1.000). Jake Mangum is 1-for-1 in his lone plate appearance (1.000/1.000/1.000). Ronny Simon is 0-for-1 with a strikeout. Jared Triolo drew a walk in his one plate appearance against Leahy, producing no at-bat (.000/1.000/--).

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs RHP (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.

Paul Skenes is a right-hander, so every Cardinals batter faces his right-handed side today. Skenes holds a tighter line against right-handed batters this season -- .663 OPS allowed compared with .683 against left-handed batters -- which means the four left-handed hitters in the lineup (Wetherholt, Alec Burleson, Nolan Gorman, and Nathan Church) face his slightly softer split.

Burleson is the standout in this matchup. His 2026 OPS vs. right-handed pitching is .918 across 457 plate appearances, 6th of 230 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances against right-handers (league average .700). Gorman and Masyn Winn each post a .600 OPS vs. RHP in 2026 -- Gorman across 250 PA (183rd of 230) and Winn across 387 PA (183rd of 230) -- the two lowest marks in the lineup against right-handed pitching. Jordan Walker sits at .771 across 480 PA (60th of 230). Iván Herrera posts .708 across 488 PA (119th of 230). Church comes in at .679 across 357 PA (136th of 230), and José Fermín at .611 across 202 PA (178th of 230).

Leo Bernal, the switch-hitter batting fifth, bats left-handed against Skenes. His 2026 OPS vs. right-handed pitching is .858 across 63 plate appearances, 21st of 230 NL batters at that threshold. That sample just clears the 60-PA floor.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs RHP (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.

Kyle Leahy is a right-handed starter, and Pittsburgh's lineup has two left-handed bats — Brandon Lowe (2B) and Ryan O'Hearn (1B) — who each carry a 2026 advantage against right-handed pitching. Brandon Lowe's 2026 OPS vs. right-handers is .906, ranking 8th of 230 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching (.906; league average .700) across 437 plate appearances. Ryan O'Hearn's 2026 OPS vs. right-handers is .852, ranking 24th of 230 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching (.852; league average .700) across 302 plate appearances. The right-handed batters face the side of Leahy that holds; the three switch-hitters bat left-handed against him, his weaker side. Nick Gonzales, hitting right-handed, ranks 47th of 230 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching in OPS (.791; league average .700) across 405 plate appearances. Bryan Reynolds, a switch-hitter who bats left against right-handers, ranks 55th of 230 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching in OPS (.776; league average .700) across 450 plate appearances. Jake Mangum, another switch-hitter, ranks 121st of 230 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching in OPS (.706; league average .700) across 333 plate appearances. Jared Triolo, the other right-handed bat in the lineup, ranks 193rd of 230 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching in OPS (.580; league average .700) across 217 plate appearances. Konnor Griffin, leading off and hitting right-handed, ranks 140th of 230 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching in OPS (.676; league average .700) across 235 plate appearances. Ronny Simon's 2026 sample against right-handed pitching is 38 plate appearances — too small to report split rates reliably; his 2025 line vs. right-handers reads .246/.311/.292 across 74 plate appearances. Rafael Flores Jr. posts an .863 OPS vs. right-handers across 79 plate appearances in 2026.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Kyle Leahy is stronger against right-handed batters this season: .618 OPS allowed across 269 batters faced, compared with .850 OPS allowed against left-handed batters across 318 batters faced. Among NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced, Leahy ranks 71st of 242 vs right-handed batters (.618; league average .698) and 193rd of 231 vs left-handed batters (.850; league average .714). Pittsburgh sends four right-handed bats (Griffin, Flores, Gonzales, Triolo) and two left-handed bats (Lowe, O'Hearn) against him today, with three switch-hitters (Reynolds, Simon, Mangum) rounding out the order -- the right-handed portion of the lineup meets his stronger split.

Paul Skenes is stronger against right-handed batters this season: .663 OPS allowed across 287 batters faced, compared with .683 OPS allowed against left-handed batters across 402 batters faced. Among NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced, Skenes ranks 95th of 242 vs right-handed batters (.663; league average .698) and 93rd of 231 vs left-handed batters (.683; league average .714). St. Louis lines up four right-handed bats (Herrera, Walker, Fermín, Winn) and four left-handed bats (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church), with one switch-hitter (Bernal) -- an evenly split lineup that gives neither side a clear handedness edge against him.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Kyle Leahy starts away today, which is his weaker side this season: he has allowed a .769 OPS on the road compared with .719 at home. His 2026 road ERA of 3.94 ranks 93rd of 187 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings on the road (league average 4.05). In 2025 he was sharper away from home, posting a 2.68 ERA across 173 batters faced and 43.2 innings -- a reversal of his current split.

Paul Skenes pitches at home today, which is his stronger side this season: he has allowed a .653 OPS at home compared with .701 on the road. His 2026 home ERA of 3.94 ranks 106th of 195 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings at home (league average 3.88). His 2025 home ERA was 1.77 across 352 batters faced and 91.1 innings; his 2026 home ERA of 3.94 has not matched it.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Kyle Leahy has pitched into a third pass in 21 of 29 starts. In the 21 starts he pitched into a third pass, hitters posted a .789 OPS on the second pass -- 188 PA. From the third pass on in those same starts: 1.017 OPS -- 92 PA. Early hooks: 8 starts, 44 PA. Paul Skenes has pitched into a third pass in 29 of 31 starts. In the 29 starts he pitched into a third pass, hitters posted a .622 OPS on the second pass -- 261 PA. From the third pass on in those same starts: .816 OPS -- 142 PA. Early hooks: 2 starts, 7 PA. Per-pass rate stats resting on fewer than 50 PA render as their PA count, never as a decimal; 2026 companion columns carry their own 60 BF floor (below floor renders SSS).

Kyle Leahy has pitched into a third pass in 21 of 29 starts. His 2025 first-pass line of .645 OPS across 355 PA ranks 110th of 344 2025 NL pitchers with at least 50 PA in that pass (league average .734). His 2026 first pass reads .575 OPS across 263 batters faced. In the starts he was left in long enough to reach a third pass, hitters posted a .789 OPS against him on the second pass across 188 PA, and 1.017 OPS from the third pass on across 92 PA -- a sharp rise as he works deeper into the order. His 2026 second-pass companions: .827 OPS across 232 batters faced. His 2026 third-pass sample is 92 batters faced.

Paul Skenes has pitched into a third pass in 29 of 31 starts. His 2025 first-pass line of .521 OPS across 289 PA ranks 13th of 344 2025 NL pitchers with at least 50 PA in that pass (league average .734). His 2026 first pass reads .666 OPS across 279 batters faced. His 2025 second-pass line of .536 OPS across 286 PA ranks 11th of 132 2025 NL pitchers with at least 50 PA in that pass (league average .742); in 2026, .605 OPS across 268 batters faced. His 2025 third-pass line of .669 OPS across 158 PA ranks 19th of 84 2025 NL pitchers with at least 50 PA in that pass (league average .781). In the 29 starts he was left in long enough to reach a third pass, hitters posted a .622 OPS on the second pass across 261 PA; from the third pass on in those same starts, .816 OPS across 142 PA. His 2026 third pass reads .810 OPS across 143 batters faced.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

2025's league average strand rate was 68.8%.

Kyle Leahy leads this group in volume, entering 21 times to inherit 29 runners in 2025 and stranding 62.1% of them -- below the league mark. His 2026 season covers 138.0 IP with a 3.65 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.

Gordon Graceffo's 2025 strand rate of 54.5% is the lowest in the group across 11 inherited runners. His 2026 line -- 78.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 1.09 WHIP -- stands as the sharpest ERA and WHIP of the four.

Riley O'Brien stranded 70.0% of his 10 inherited runners in 2025, clearing the league baseline. His 2026 line: 64.0 IP, 4.08 ERA, 1.28 WHIP.

Michael McGreevy stranded all 3 of his inherited runners in 2025, a 100.0% strand rate on a sample of 3. His 2026 workload of 164.0 IP -- the largest of the group -- carries a 3.84 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- PIT

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

2025 GB% types every ball in play; 2026 GO% is the ground-out share of outs in play (GO / (GO+AO), statsapi) -- different measures, both labeled. 2026 GO% reads "SSS" below 50 GO+AO; at or above it the 2026 figure leads and the 2025 GB% is last season's.

Kyle Leahy's 2025 contact shape across 249 balls in play was 44.2% grounders, 26.9% flies, and 27.7% line drives; his 2026 ground-ball rate of 53.6% runs above the league average of 47.0%. Paul Skenes posted 45.4% grounders, 31.2% flies, and 23.1% line drives across 458 balls in play in 2025, and his 2026 ground-ball rate of 44.1% sits below the league average.

Against Leahy, the Pittsburgh lineup leans into that shape. Jake Mangum and Nick Gonzales are the lineup's most ground-oriented hitters by 2026 GO share: Mangum checked in at 61.7% (222 GO+AO) and Gonzales at 56.6% (281 GO+AO). Jared Triolo (55.7%, 176 GO+AO) and Ryan O'Hearn (50.8%, 197 GO+AO) sit in the middle range. Brandon Lowe (44.1%, 245 GO+AO) is the lineup's most fly-ball-inclined bat, and Bryan Reynolds sits at 51.8% (278 GO+AO): Lowe posted a .678 last season average on line drives and .071 on flies, Reynolds .600 on line drives and .198 on flies. Rafael Flores and Ronny Simon each have 2025 samples too small to report rates.

The contact picture favors Leahy's strength: a lineup that produces ground balls at a high rate, facing a pitcher whose ground-ball tendency runs above the league average, reduces the line-drive and fly-ball exposure that would give Pittsburgh the most favorable batted-ball results.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

Yohel Pozo and Jimmy Crooks, who appear in the 2025 pairing history with Kyle Leahy, are not on the current Cardinals active roster. Leo Bernal, who caught last night, projects behind the plate; he did not catch Leahy in 2025, the season these pairing figures cover. Pedro Pagés carries the largest 2025 sample: 43 games and 62.0 innings behind Leahy produced a 3.05 ERA and .225 average against, the strongest mark in the table. Iván Herrera's 4-game, 3.0-inning pairing posted a 6.00 ERA and .308 average against; he starts today at DH, not behind the plate.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Pittsburgh baserunning (2026): Jake Mangum leads the Pittsburgh group with 23 stolen bases and 9 caught stealing, a 71.9% success rate on 32 attempts. Jared Triolo has 13 stolen bases against 1 caught stealing, a 92.9% success rate on 14 attempts. Nick Gonzales has 7 stolen bases and 3 caught stealing, a 70.0% success rate on 10 attempts. Bryan Reynolds has 9 stolen bases and 0 caught stealing across 9 attempts -- too small a sample for a rate. Ronny Simon has 3 stolen bases and 0 caught stealing across 3 attempts -- too small a sample for a rate. Brandon Lowe has 2 stolen bases and 0 caught stealing across 2 attempts -- too small a sample for a rate. Ryan O'Hearn has 1 stolen base and 0 caught stealing across 1 attempt -- too small a sample for a rate.

Pittsburgh baserunning (2025): Mangum stole 27 bases against 6 caught stealing (81.8% on 33 attempts). Triolo went 13 for 15 (86.7%). Reynolds had 3 stolen bases and 2 caught stealing across 5 attempts -- too small a sample for a rate. Lowe had 3 stolen bases and 2 caught stealing across 5 attempts -- too small a sample for a rate. O'Hearn had 3 stolen bases and 1 caught stealing across 4 attempts -- too small a sample for a rate. Simon had 1 stolen base and 0 caught stealing across 1 attempt -- too small a sample for a rate.

Cardinals catchers (2026): Pedro Pagés has thrown out 19 of 60 base stealers (31.7% caught stealing) over 518.1 innings. Leo Bernal, starting today, has thrown out 4 of 22 (18.2%) over 130.2 innings.

Pittsburgh catcher (2026): Rafael Flores Jr. is in the lineup today and has allowed 32 stolen bases against 7 caught stealing (17.9% caught stealing) over 252.1 innings. Henry Davis has thrown out 17 of 37 (45.9%) in 727.0 innings -- the more active arm behind the plate for Pittsburgh this season but not in today's lineup.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Today's lineup puts several Cardinals at positions where the 2025 fielding record is thin or new. José Fermín starts in left field, where his 2025 sample covers 4 games at a 1.000 fielding percentage — a small base. Nathan Church is in center field, where his 2025 record across 18 games shows 0 errors and a 1.000 fielding percentage. Nolan Gorman moves to third base, his primary 2025 position (54 games, .950 fielding percentage, 6 errors). Alec Burleson plays first base, where his 2025 line reads 50 games, 27 double plays, 4 errors, and a .990 fielding percentage. Masyn Winn at shortstop has the deepest sample in the table: 129 games, 64 double plays, 3 errors, and a .994 fielding percentage in 2025. Jordan Walker in right field posted a .981 fielding percentage across 108 games in 2025 with 4 errors.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Against the Pittsburgh Pirates from 2022 through 2025, the Cardinals went 13-6 in 2022, 4-9 in 2023, 8-5 in 2024, and 6-7 in 2025. The series at PNC Park today is tied 1-1 heading into the finale.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker strike out more often than the league average. Gorman's 2025 K% was 33.8% across 402 PA; his 2026 figure is 31.8% across 296 PA. Walker's 2025 K% was 31.8% across 396 PA; his 2026 figure is 25.8% across 651 PA. Both figures run well above the league average of 22.1%. Nathan Church posted a 2025 K% of 27.7% across 65 PA, also above that mark, though his 2026 K% is 17.0% across 459 PA. On the other side, Alec Burleson's 2025 K% was 14.5% across 544 PA, and his 2026 K% is 17.9% across 660 PA -- both below the 22.1% league average. Iván Herrera's 2025 K% was 18.7% across 450 PA; his 2026 K% is 18.7% across 701 PA, also below that mark. Skenes enters with a 2026 K% of 27.9%, excellent by this season's cutoff of 26.4% among NL pitchers with at least 60 innings, 29th of 130.

Pirates

Brandon Lowe and Bryan Reynolds strike out more often than the league average. Lowe's 2025 K% was 26.9% across 553 PA; his 2026 K% is 28.8% across 643 PA, above the league average of 22.1%. Reynolds posted a 2025 K% of 26.5% across 654 PA; his 2026 K% is 23.1% across 688 PA, also above that mark. Jake Mangum and Nick Gonzales sit at the other end: Mangum's 2025 BB% was 4.4% across 428 PA, and his 2026 BB% is 5.4% across 465 PA -- both below the league average of 8.9%. Gonzales's 2025 BB% was 5.1% across 408 PA; his 2026 BB% is 6.9% across 596 PA, likewise below that mark. Ronny Simon's 2026 sample of 59 PA is too small to report split rates reliably. Rafael Flores Jr. shows a 2025 K% of 41.2% across 17 PA, a sample too small to report reliably. Leahy's 2026 K% is 22.0% across his qualified sample, 65th of 130 NL pitchers with at least 60 innings.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Paul Skenes allowed ground balls on 45.4% of balls in play last season across 458 BIP. Against his contact profile, Iván Herrera's 2026 GO% leads at 56.2% (320 GO+AO), with last season's 52.6% GB% confirming a strong ground-ball tendency. Jordan Walker's 2026 GO% is 48.9% (268 GO+AO), last season 48.9% GB%. Alec Burleson's 2026 GO% is 51.1% (315 GO+AO), last season 42.0% GB%. Masyn Winn's 2026 GO% is 46.4% (250 GO+AO), last season 39.6% GB%. Nolan Gorman is the outlier: his 2026 GO% is 33.1% (121 GO+AO), and last season his 30.2% GB% and 41.7% FB% made him the lineup's primary fly-ball hitter. José Fermín (46 BIP last season) and Nathan Church (37 BIP last season) are below the batted-ball floor; their 2026 GO% figures are 44.5% (200 GO+AO) and 46.3% (246 GO+AO), respectively.

Pirates

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

2025 GB% types every ball in play; 2026 GO% is the ground-out share of outs in play (GO / (GO+AO), statsapi) -- different measures, both labeled. 2026 GO% reads "SSS" below 50 GO+AO; at or above it the 2026 figure leads and the 2025 GB% is last season's.

Kyle Leahy's 2026 ground-ball rate sits at 53.6%, above the 47.0% league average. He allowed ground balls on 44.2% of balls in play last season across 249 BIP. The Pittsburgh lineup matches that tendency from several angles. Jake Mangum's 2026 GO% leads at 61.7% (222 GO+AO), with last season's 62.0% GB% across 337 BIP reinforcing a heavy ground-ball profile. Bryan Reynolds's 2026 GO% is 51.8% (278 GO+AO), last season 49.5% GB% across 398 BIP. Ryan O'Hearn's 2026 GO% is 50.8% (197 GO+AO), last season 47.7% GB%. Nick Gonzales's 2026 GO% is 56.6% (281 GO+AO), last season 47.9% GB%. Jared Triolo's 2026 GO% is 55.7% (176 GO+AO), last season 41.4% GB%. Brandon Lowe's 2026 GO% is 44.1% (245 GO+AO), last season 42.2% GB% — the lineup's most fly-ball-inclined hitter among those above the floor. Ronny Simon's 2026 GO+AO of 32 is below the floor for a GO% rate; last season he put up a 54.1% GB% across 61 BIP. Rafael Flores has 8 BIP last season, below the batted-ball floor, and his 2026 GO+AO is not reported.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

The table above covers the 2025 season. Paul Skenes carries that profile into 2026 largely intact: his current K% of 27.9% is excellent among NL pitchers with at least 60 innings (29th of 130, league average 22.1%), and his BB% of 6.8% is excellent by the same group (31st of 130, league average 8.9%). His 5.14 K/BB last season reflects that combination -- more than five strikeouts for every walk issued over 187.2 innings. Kyle Leahy's 2026 K% of 22.0% ranks 65th of 130 NL pitchers with at least 60 innings (league average 22.1%), and his BB% of 7.0% ranks 38th of 130 in the same group (league average 8.9%), which is above average by that population's cutoff. His 2.86 K/BB last season (80 strikeouts, 28 walks across 88.0 innings) trails Skenes considerably, though Leahy limits free passes at a rate that sits comfortably below the league norm.

KEY MATCHUPS

Alec Burleson vs. Paul Skenes. Paul Skenes is stronger against right-handed batters this season: .663 OPS allowed, compared with .683 OPS allowed against left-handed batters. The gap is narrow, and Alec Burleson steps in as a left-handed bat against the side Skenes holds less firmly. Career vs. Skenes, Burleson is 6-for-17 (.353 avg, .389 OBP, .412 SLG) across 18 plate appearances.

Kyle Leahy's third-pass escalation. Kyle Leahy's third pass is his weakest this season: 1.016 OPS allowed, after .575 on the first and .827 on the second. He has pitched into a third pass in 21 of 29 starts.

Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn vs. Leahy. Kyle Leahy is stronger against right-handed batters this season: .618 OPS allowed, compared with .850 OPS allowed against left-handed batters. Pittsburgh's two left-handed starters face Leahy's sharply weaker side. Ryan O'Hearn ranks 24th of 230 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching in OPS vs RHP (.852; league average .700). Both bat against their stronger platoon half today.

Paul Skenes's third-pass escalation. Paul Skenes's third pass is his weakest this season: .810 OPS allowed, after .666 on the first and .605 on the second. He has pitched into a third pass in 29 of 31 starts, making late-game at-bats the Cardinals' clearest path to offense.

WATCHLIST

-- Kyle Leahy. If Leahy reaches the Pittsburgh order a third time today, watch whether Oliver Marmol pulls him first -- Marmol has done so in 8 of his 29 starts.

-- Alec Burleson. If Burleson squares up early against Skenes -- he is 6-for-17 career against him -- watch whether his season-long production against right-handed pitching shows up early.

-- Rafael Flores Jr. If Cardinals baserunners reach against Skenes, watch Rafael Flores Jr. behind the plate -- he has thrown out 17.9% of attempted base-stealers (7 CS in 39 attempts) this season, compared with Henry Davis's 45.9% rate on the same roster.

-- José Fermín. If José Fermín continues his active 3-game multi-hit streak, watch whether he can sustain contact against Skenes -- Fermín faces him on the tougher side of his platoon split (.611 OPS vs right-handed pitching, .766 vs left-handed this season, 202 and 160 PA respectively), and his strikeout rate of 13.0% -- 13th of 171 NL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances -- gives him a contact floor to work from.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Jordan Walker performed against Paul Skenes in their career?

2. How has Nolan Gorman performed against Paul Skenes in their career?

3. How has Bryan Reynolds performed against Kyle Leahy in their career?

4. What are Kyle Leahy's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Jordan Walker's splits against left-handed and right-handed pitching in 2025?

6. What is Riley O'Brien's inherited-runner strand rate in 2025?

7. What are the park factors at PNC Park in 2025?