YESTERDAY

The Cardinals lost the series opener 8-4 last night, held to 6 hits in 33 at-bats while Milwaukee scored in four separate innings; a three-run seventh that included home runs from Jordan Walker (29) and Alec Burleson (25) tied the game at 4-4, but Brice Turang's 3-for-5, 3-RBI night keyed a four-run Brewers eighth that settled it.

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

STARTING PITCHERS

Quinn Mathews (L), St. Louis: Mathews carries a 2-3 record, 3.65 ERA, and 1.38 WHIP across 44.1 innings and 8 starts this season, striking out 39 and walking 18. The surface ERA sits in an interesting place for a left-hander still building his workload: his strikeout rate of 20.5% runs below the league average of 22.1%, his walk rate of 9.5% runs above the 8.9% average, and his ground-ball rate of 43.8% trails the 47.0% league figure. The story those numbers tell is a young starter who has been far better at home -- 2.33 ERA in 19.1 innings -- while running into more trouble on the road, where he carries a 4.68 ERA in 25.0 innings. He has pitched into a third pass in 7 of 8 starts. In the 7 starts where he did reach a third pass, batters posted a .790 OPS against him in the second pass (63 PA); his third-pass sample in those starts (45 PA) is too small to report a rate. Tonight he pitches away from home, where his numbers have been harder to manage.

Dustin May (R), Milwaukee: May enters at 7-9, 4.67 ERA, and 1.32 WHIP across 142.2 innings and 30 starts -- a full-season workload that places him 101st of 130 NL pitchers with at least 60 innings in ERA and 85th in WHIP. His strikeout rate (22.9%) and walk rate (8.1%) both sit near league average. The home/road split is the sharpest line in his profile: a 3.87 ERA in 86.0 innings at American Family Field versus a 5.88 ERA in 56.2 innings on the road. Tonight he pitches at home, where his numbers have been considerably better. He has pitched into a third pass in 20 of 30 starts. In those 20 starts, batters posted a .637 OPS against him in the second pass (180 PA) and .613 OPS in the third (116 PA).

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Yesterday's lineup from last night)

Handedness: 6 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Fermín, Saggese, Winn, Pagés), 2 LHB (Wetherholt, Scott), 1 SHB (Bernal).

Brewers (Yesterday's lineup from last night)

Handedness: 2 RHB (Contreras, Ortiz), 6 LHB (Mitchell, Turang, Bauers, Yelich, Frelick, Hamilton), 1 SHB (Lara).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Cardinals

Peter Strzelecki -- 2026-09-16: St. Louis Cardinals activated RHP Peter Strzelecki from the 15-day injured list.

JJ Wetherholt -- 2026-09-16: St. Louis Cardinals activated 2B JJ Wetherholt from the 10-day injured list.

Joshua Báez -- 2026-09-18: St. Louis Cardinals placed LF Joshua Báez on the 10-day injured list. Left oblique strain.

Brewers

Andrew Vaughn -- 2026-09-22: Milwaukee Brewers placed 1B Andrew Vaughn on the 10-day injured list retroactive to September 22, 2026. Illness.

Bryse Wilson -- 2026-09-25: Milwaukee Brewers activated RHP Bryse Wilson from the 15-day injured list.

On the Cardinals side, JJ Wetherholt returned at second base September 16 after coming off the 10-day injured list, and Peter Strzelecki, a pitcher, was activated from the 15-day list and designated for assignment the same day. Joshua Báez has no left field presence in tonight's lineup; he went on the 10-day injured list September 18 with a left oblique strain.

Milwaukee is without first baseman Andrew Vaughn, placed on the 10-day injured list retroactive to September 22 with an illness. Bryse Wilson was activated from the 15-day injured list and relieved last night, returning him to the Brewers bullpen.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

No data available for this section.

The BvP table carries no career history between any Cardinals batter in tonight's projected lineup and Dustin May, so his 2026 platoon work is the guide: May holds right-handed batters to a .649 OPS across 245 batters faced this season, while left-handed batters have posted a .753 OPS against him across 363 batters faced. Six of the nine Cardinals in the projected order bat right-handed, two bat left-handed, and Leo Bernal switches -- so the majority of the lineup lands on May's tighter side.

No significant bench BvP history.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

No data available for this section.

Quinn Mathews has no career BvP record on file against any Milwaukee Brewers batter in tonight's lineup; no career figures apply to this matchup.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs RHP (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.

Dustin May enters tonight having allowed a .649 OPS to right-handed batters and a .753 OPS to left-handed batters in 2026, so the six right-handed hitters in this lineup face the side of the ledger where May has been harder to square up. Jordan Walker is the group's clearest exception: his 2026 line against right-handed pitching reads .775 OPS across 486 PA, 55th of 232 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching in OPS (.775; league average .699). Iván Herrera, at .701 OPS across 492 PA, ranks 122nd of 232 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching in OPS (vs RHP) (.701; league average .699). Masyn Winn's 2026 mark against right-handers stands at .594 across 391 PA, 187th of 232 in that pool. José Fermín shows a .611 OPS in 202 PA vs right-handers, 177th of 232. Thomas Saggese's 2026 vs-RHP figure is .581 across 120 PA, 191st of 232. Pedro Pagés posts a .636 OPS across 113 PA, 168th of 232.

The two left-handed hitters, JJ Wetherholt and Victor Scott II, face May's weaker platoon side. Wetherholt's 2026 line vs right-handed pitching is .736 OPS across 397 PA, 95th of 232 NL batters in that split pool. Victor Scott II's 2026 vs-RHP line is .478 OPS across 131 PA, 226th of 232; his 2025 line against right-handers was .221/.310/.317 across 332 PA. Leo Bernal, a switch-hitter, bats left against May: his 2026 vs-RHP OPS is .854 across 68 PA, 22nd of 232 NL batters in that split pool, while his 26 PA against left-handers are too few to compare.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs LHP (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.

Quinn Mathews is a left-hander, and six of the nine Milwaukee Brewers in last night's lineup bat from the left side -- Mitchell, Turang, Bauers, Yelich, Frelick, and Hamilton -- with Luis Lara a switch-hitter and William Contreras and Joey Ortiz the only right-handed bats.

Against left-handed pitching in 2026, the group is mostly below the league average of .726 OPS among NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances. Jake Bauers is the clear exception: his .927 OPS vs LHP ranks 11th of 164 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs left-handed pitching. William Contreras (.762 OPS, 68th of 164) sits just above the league average. The remaining qualifiers are well below it: Garrett Mitchell, .674 OPS, 102nd of 164; Joey Ortiz, .664 OPS, 108th of 164; David Hamilton, .597 OPS, 139th of 164; Brice Turang, .598 OPS, 138th of 164; Christian Yelich, .610 OPS, 132nd of 164; Sal Frelick, .547 OPS, 154th of 164. Luis Lara ranks 144th of 164 at .574 OPS across 70 plate appearances.

Bauers and Contreras are the two Brewers who have historically handled left-handed pitching with at least league-average results; the rest of the lineup, including the five left-handed hitters outside of Bauers, have collectively fared below the NL average against same-side pitching this season. Turang is stronger against right-handed pitching this season (.904 OPS vs .598 against left-handers), as are Mitchell (.799 OPS vs .674), Yelich (.729 OPS vs .610), Ortiz (.768 OPS vs .664), Frelick (.644 OPS vs .547), and Hamilton (.659 OPS vs .597) -- each of those six carries a more comfortable split against the opposite hand. Contreras runs the other direction: stronger against left-handed pitching this season (.762 OPS vs .755 against right-handers), and Bauers likewise (.927 OPS vs .863 against right-handers).

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Dustin May enters tonight having allowed a .753 OPS against left-handed batters across 363 batters faced in 2026, ranking 134th of 231 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs left-handed batters. Against right-handed batters his 2026 figure drops to a .649 OPS across 245 batters faced, ranking 87th of 244 NL pitchers in that split -- his stronger side this season. Six of the nine Cardinals in last night's lineup bat right-handed, meaning the bulk of St. Louis lands on the side where May has been harder to reach.

Quinn Mathews has faced only 52 left-handed batters this season, a sample too small to report split rates reliably vs left-handed hitters. Against right-handed batters, his 2026 OPS allowed stands at .690 across 138 batters faced, ranking 111th of 244 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs right-handed batters. Six of the nine Milwaukee batters in last night's lineup hit left-handed, so the majority of tonight's Brewers order falls into the split where Mathews carries no reportable 2026 rate.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Dustin May pitches at home tonight, his stronger side this season: .635 OPS allowed at American Family Field, compared with .820 OPS allowed on the road. His 2026 home ERA of 3.87 ranks 99th of 197 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched at home (league average 3.91). On the road, his 5.88 ERA ranks 171st of 189 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched away from home (league average 4.05). The 2025 split ran in the same direction -- a 3.24 ERA at home across 75.0 innings, against a 6.28 ERA away over 57.1 innings.

Quinn Mathews takes the road side tonight, the weaker half of his own home/away split: .765 OPS allowed on the road this season, compared with .602 OPS allowed at home. His 2026 away ERA of 4.68 ranks 128th of 189 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched on the road (league average 4.05).

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Dustin May has pitched into a third pass in 20 of 30 starts. In the 20 starts he pitched into a third pass, hitters posted a .637 OPS on the second pass -- 180 PA. From the third pass on in those same starts: .613 OPS -- 116 PA. Early hooks: 10 starts, 50 PA. Per-pass rate stats resting on fewer than 50 PA render as their PA count, never as a decimal; 2026 companion columns carry their own 60 BF floor (below floor renders SSS).

Dustin May has pitched into a third pass in 20 of 30 starts. In the 20 starts he was left in for a third pass, hitters posted a .637 OPS on the second pass across 180 PA and a .613 OPS from the third pass on across 116 PA. Last season ran the other way: his 2025 second-pass OPS allowed of .878 ranked 109th of 132 NL pitchers with at least 50 PA in that pass (league average .742), and his third-pass .882 ranked 69th of 84 (league average .781). His 2025 first-pass figure of .652 OPS across 227 PA ranks 114th of 344 NL pitchers with at least 50 PA in that pass (league average .734).

Quinn Mathews has pitched into a third pass in 7 of 8 starts this season. In those 7 starts, the second pass drew a .790 OPS across 63 PA. His third-pass sample in those same starts covers 45 batters faced -- too small to report a reliable rate. His 2026 first-pass figure stands at .625 OPS across 74 batters faced.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

2025's league average strand rate was 68.8%. Two of the four Cardinals pitchers in this table finished 2025 below that mark. Kyle Leahy entered with runners on base 21 times, inheriting 29 total, and stranded 62.1% -- his 2026 season reads 140.0 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.34 WHIP. Gordon Graceffo's 54.5% strand rate was the group's lowest across 11 inherited runners; he carries a 2.73 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 79.0 innings this season. Riley O'Brien stranded 70.0% of his 10 inherited runners in 2025 and has a 4.08 ERA through 64.0 innings in 2026. Michael McGreevy's sample is small -- three inherited runners, none scored -- and his 2026 workload of 168.2 IP is the largest in the group, with a 3.95 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- MIL

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

2025 GB% types every ball in play; 2026 GO% is the ground-out share of outs in play (GO / (GO+AO), statsapi) -- different measures, both labeled. 2026 GO% reads "SSS" below 50 GO+AO; at or above it the 2026 figure leads and the 2025 GB% is last season's.

Dustin May induced ground balls on 44.1% of balls in play last season across 372 BIP, with fly balls at 28.2% and line drives at 26.6%; his 2026 ground-ball rate is 46.8%, just below the league's 47.0%.

Seven of the eight Milwaukee hitters have 2026 GO% at or above the league average of 47.3% among 172 qualified hitters. Christian Yelich (206 GO+AO, 64.6%) and Garrett Mitchell (175 GO+AO, 64.6%) are the most pronounced ground-out profiles in the lineup -- Yelich posted a last-season ground-ball average of .248 and a line-drive average of .630 across publishable samples, meaning his best outcomes come on lifted contact. Brice Turang (259 GO+AO, 56.0% GO%) and Sal Frelick (226 GO+AO, 54.0% GO%) follow the same pattern: last-season line-drive averages of .609 and .696, respectively, set against a pitcher whose profile keeps the ball on the ground at a moderate rate.

William Contreras is the lineup's most interesting divergence: a 2026 GO% of 43.7% -- below league average -- paired with a last-season ground-ball average of .246 and a line-drive average of .660. He makes his damage in the air and on line drives, and May's 28.2% fly-ball rate leaves some room for that kind of contact. Joey Ortiz (198 GO+AO, 52.0% GO%) and David Hamilton (179 GO+AO, 48.0% GO%) both run near-average ground-out rates; Hamilton's 2025 line-drive and fly-ball samples are below the floor. Jake Bauers's 2025 per-type batting averages are all below the floor across 43 ground-ball AB, 41 fly-ball AB, and 32 line-drive AB; his 2026 GO% of 49.5% places him just above the league average.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

No data available for this section.

The pairing figures cover 2025, and Quinn Mathews has no games on file with any Cardinals catcher that season. Last night's box lists both Leo Bernal (fourth) and Pedro Pagés (eighth) at catcher, so tonight's catcher is not settled in the projection.

With no battery history on file, Mathews's own profile is the guide. He is stronger at home this season -- .602 OPS allowed at home versus .765 on the road -- and tonight he starts away from Busch Stadium at American Family Field, where his road ERA of 4.68 applies. His second pass is his weakest this season, with batters posting a .793 OPS against him in that pass (71 PA) versus .625 in the first. Mathews has pitched into a third pass in 7 of 8 starts; the third-pass sample in those starts (45 PA) is too small to report a rate.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Milwaukee's baserunning group is active and efficient in 2026. David Hamilton leads with 30 stolen bases against 6 caught stealing (83.3% success). Brice Turang has 19 stolen bases against 5 caught stealing (79.2%). Christian Yelich has 11 stolen bases against 1 caught stealing (91.7%). Joey Ortiz has 9 stolen bases against 5 caught stealing (64.3%). Garrett Mitchell has 14 stolen bases against 10 caught stealing (58.3%). Sal Frelick has 7 stolen bases against 3 caught stealing (70.0%). Jake Bauers has 11 stolen bases against 6 caught stealing (64.7%). William Contreras has 1 stolen base and 2 caught stealing this season -- a sample of 3 attempts is too small to report a rate.

Behind the plate for St. Louis, Pedro Pagés has thrown out 19 of 60 base-stealers (31.7%) across 78 games. Leo Bernal has thrown out 5 of 23 (21.7%) in 19 games.

Milwaukee's catchers present a wide range. William Contreras has allowed 47 stolen bases while throwing out 25 of 72 attempts (34.7%) across 127 games. Gary Sánchez has allowed 19 stolen bases while throwing out 6 of 25 attempts (24.0%) in 42 games. Bo Naylor has allowed 22 stolen bases while throwing out 2 of 24 attempts (8.3%) in 29 games.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Masyn Winn starts at shortstop tonight carrying a 2025 fielding line of .994 across 129 games, with 64 double plays turned and 3 errors. Thomas Saggese draws the start at third base; his 2025 record at that position covers 18 games, 0 double plays, 2 errors, and a .939 fielding percentage. At second base, JJ Wetherholt carries no 2025 fielding row. Jordan Walker starts in right field, where his 2025 record shows 108 games, a .981 fielding percentage, 2 double plays, and 4 errors.

José Fermín played left field last night; his 2025 left-field record covers 4 games, 0 errors, and a 1.000 fielding percentage. Last night's box lists Victor Scott II in left field too, so the outfield alignment is not settled; his 2025 fielding came mostly in center field (136 games, .982). The box also lists both Leo Bernal and Pedro Pagés at catcher. Pagés holds a 2025 catching record of .994 across 110 games, with 6 double plays and 5 errors; Bernal has no 2025 fielding row in this table.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Against the Milwaukee Brewers from 2022 through 2025, the Cardinals went 26-32, winning the series outright only in 2022 (10-9) before dropping three consecutive seasons -- 5-8 in both 2023 and 2024, and 6-7 in 2025.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Jordan Walker's 2026 K% sits at 26.1% against a league average of 22.1%; his 2025 mark was 31.8% across 396 PA. Pedro Pagés and Thomas Saggese each carry elevated strikeout rates -- Pagés at 27.5% (2025) with a 2026 companion of 26.9% across 208 PA, Saggese at 28.1% (2025) with a 2026 figure of 27.2% across 173 PA -- alongside walk rates below the league average of 8.9% (Pagés: 4.9% in 2025, 5.8% in 2026; Saggese: 5.4% in 2025, 7.5% in 2026). Iván Herrera's 2026 K% is 19.2% -- below the league average of 22.1% -- across 709 PA, with a 2025 baseline of 18.7% across 450 PA. José Fermín's 2026 K% of 13.4% across 365 PA is the lineup's lowest; his 2025 figure was 14.3% across 70 PA. Masyn Winn's 2026 K% reads 21.8% across 532 PA; his 2025 baseline was 19.0% across 537 PA, with a 2026 BB% of 9.0%. Victor Scott II's 2026 K% is 23.6% and BB% 8.2% across 195 PA; his 2025 line across 463 PA shows a 24.0% K% and 9.1% BB%.

Brewers

Six of the nine Brewers in last night's lineup bat left-handed against Quinn Mathews, a left-hander. William Contreras leads the group in contact, with a 2026 K% of 14.6% across 636 PA -- well below the league average of 22.1% -- and a 2025 baseline of 18.2% across 659 PA. Sal Frelick's 2026 K% of 10.0% across 381 PA is the lineup's lowest; his 2025 mark was 13.6% across 590 PA. Garrett Mitchell's 2026 K% is 31.6% across 525 PA -- above the league average of 22.1%; his 2025 figure was 32.1% across 78 PA. Brice Turang's 2026 K% of 25.1% across 672 PA is paired with a 2026 BB% of 13.2%. Jake Bauers carries a 2026 BB% of 16.3% across 570 PA; his 2025 figure was 14.7% across 218 PA -- both above the league average of 8.9%. Joey Ortiz's 2025 BB% was 5.3% across 506 PA, with a 2026 companion of 8.4% across 415 PA. Christian Yelich's 2026 K% is 26.7% across 494 PA; his 2025 baseline was 25.9% across 644 PA.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Dustin May's 2026 ground-ball rate is 46.8%, just below the league average of 47.0%; his 2025 mix showed 44.1% across 372 balls in play. Against that profile, Iván Herrera carries the Cardinals' heaviest 2025 ground-ball rate, 52.6% across 285 balls in play, with a 2026 GO% of 56.4% (321 GO+AO). Jordan Walker logged a 2025 GB% of 48.9% across 231 BIP; his 2026 GO% is 49.3% (270 GO+AO). Pedro Pagés shows a 2025 GB% of 44.9% across 243 BIP and a 2026 GO% of 48.0% (98 GO+AO). Masyn Winn's 2025 GB% reads 39.6% across 376 BIP; his 2026 GO% is 46.0% (252 GO+AO). Thomas Saggese posted a 2025 GB% of 41.8% across 189 BIP and a 2026 GO% of 42.7% (75 GO+AO). Victor Scott's 2025 GB% is 40.2% across 259 BIP; his 2026 GO% is 60.6% (99 GO+AO). José Fermín's 2025 sample of 46 balls in play falls below the floor; his 2026 GO% is 44.3% (201 GO+AO).

Brewers

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

2025 GB% types every ball in play; 2026 GO% is the ground-out share of outs in play (GO / (GO+AO), statsapi) -- different measures, both labeled. 2026 GO% reads "SSS" below 50 GO+AO; at or above it the 2026 figure leads and the 2025 GB% is last season's.

Quinn Mathews carried a 43.8% ground-ball rate in 2026, below the league average of 47.0% -- his contact shape leans toward fly balls relative to the league. All eight Brewers in the table clear the 50 GO+AO floor. Christian Yelich's 2026 GO% shares the group lead at 64.6% (206 GO+AO), pairing with a 2025 GB% of 61.2% across 376 BIP -- a heavy ground-ball tendency either way. Garrett Mitchell's 2025 sample of 42 BIP falls below the floor; his 2026 GO% is 64.6% (175 GO+AO). Sal Frelick's 2026 GO% is 54.0% (226 GO+AO), with a 2025 GB% of 47.5% across 432 BIP. Brice Turang's 2026 GO% is 56.0% (259 GO+AO), with a 2025 GB% of 48.6% across 405 BIP. William Contreras shows a 2026 GO% of 43.7% (327 GO+AO) and a 2025 GB% of 53.1% across 429 BIP -- one of the group's wider year-over-year gaps in ground-ball share. Joey Ortiz's 2026 GO% is 52.0% (198 GO+AO), with a 2025 GB% of 45.7% across 385 BIP. Jake Bauers posted a 2025 GB% of 37.1% across 116 BIP and a 2026 GO% of 49.5% (194 GO+AO). David Hamilton's 2025 GB% is 43.8% across 121 BIP; his 2026 GO% is 48.0% (179 GO+AO). Against a Mathews profile that ran below the league ground-ball average, the Milwaukee lineup's contact tendencies -- led by Yelich and Turang at the top of the ground-ball ledger -- shape the expected contact type, with several hitters more likely to put the ball on the ground than Mathews typically induces.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

In 2025 Dustin May posted a 21.1% strikeout rate, a 9.6% walk rate and a 2.20 K/BB ratio across 132.1 innings. His 2026 numbers have shifted -- 22.9% K%, 8.1% BB% -- placing him 58th of 130 NL pitchers in strikeout rate and 65th of 130 in walk rate among pitchers with at least 60 innings.

Quinn Mathews's 2026 season line shows 39 strikeouts and 18 walks over 44.1 innings, a 20.5% strikeout rate and a 9.5% walk rate. His strikeout rate sits below the league average of 22.1% and his walk rate above the league average of 8.9%, a combination that narrows his margin for error tonight on the road, where he carries a 4.68 ERA in 25.0 innings.

KEY MATCHUPS

May vs Cardinals RHB-heavy lineup. Dustin May is stronger against right-handed batters this season: .649 OPS allowed, compared with .753 OPS allowed against left-handed batters. St. Louis sends six right-handed bats against him tonight -- the Cardinals' order lands predominantly on his stronger side. Among NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs right-handed batters, May ranks 87th of 244 (.649; league average .698). Jordan Walker, batting third, is stronger against left-handed pitching this season (.874 OPS vs LHP across 173 PA), so he lands on May's tougher side; Walker ranks 23rd of 164 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs left-handed pitching. Against right-handed pitching Walker carries a .775 OPS across 486 PA, 55th of 232 NL batters. Masyn Winn's 2026 line vs right-handed pitching reads .594 OPS across 391 PA, 187th of 232 NL batters -- the bottom third of the order gives May little resistance on his stronger side.

Mathews vs Brewers LHB-heavy lineup. Quinn Mathews's 2026 sample against left-handed batters carries 52 batters faced -- too small to report a reliable platoon edge. His right-handed sample clears the floor: .690 OPS allowed across 138 batters faced, 111th of 244 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs right-handed batters (league average .698). Milwaukee sends six left-handed bats tonight. Jake Bauers, batting fourth, ranks 11th of 164 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs left-handed pitching in OPS (.927; league average .726). Brice Turang is stronger against right-handed pitching this season (.904 OPS across 474 PA, 9th of 232 NL batters) but hits left-handed pitching at .598 OPS across 198 PA, 138th of 164. Christian Yelich carries a .610 OPS vs left-handed pitching across 130 PA, 132nd of 164 NL batters.

May home/away split. Dustin May is stronger at home this season: .635 OPS allowed, compared with .820 OPS allowed on the road. Tonight he pitches at American Family Field -- the Cardinals face his better self. Among NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched at home, May ranks 99th of 197 in ERA (home) (3.87; league average 3.91). His road ERA this season ranks 171st of 189 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched on the road (5.88; league average 4.05), a substantial split that the Cardinals cannot exploit tonight.

WATCHLIST

-- Jake Bauers. If Bauers reaches base against Quinn Mathews, watch his walk rate as the primary mechanism -- he ranks 4th of 172 NL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances in BB% (16.3%; league average 9.0%).

-- Mathews second pass. If the Brewers' lineup reaches Mathews a second time, watch for the divergence in outcomes by hitter. Mathews has pitched into a third pass in 7 of his 8 starts; in the starts where he reached a third pass, his second-pass sample of 63 PA produced a .790 OPS against. Brice Turang (.598 OPS vs left-handed pitching this season, 198 PA) and Jake Bauers represent opposite ends of the exposure spectrum among the left-handed bats in tonight's Milwaukee lineup.

-- Jordan Walker. If Walker reaches hitter's counts against Dustin May, watch whether he can lift the ball -- his 2026 ground-out share is 49.3% against a 47.3% league average (48.9% ground-ball rate in 2025), and he faces May on the side where May holds a platoon advantage tonight.

-- Iván Herrera. If Herrera sees multiple plate appearances against May, watch his on-base ability as the counter to May's platoon edge -- Herrera ranks 25th of 172 NL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances in OBP (.355; league average .322), though he faces May tonight on his weaker side: .701 OPS against right-handed pitching across 492 plate appearances this season, compared with .835 OPS against left-handed pitching.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Jordan Walker performed against Dustin May in their career?

2. How has William Contreras performed against Quinn Mathews in their career?

3. How has Christian Yelich performed against Quinn Mathews in their career?

4. What are Dustin May's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Jordan Walker's splits against left-handed and right-handed pitchers in 2025?

6. What is Kyle Leahy's inherited-runner strand rate in 2025?

7. What are the park factors at American Family Field in 2025?