YESTERDAY

Pittsburgh took the series opener last night, PIT 2, STL 0, holding the Cardinals to 1 hit in 28 at-bats as Jared Jones struck out 9 over 7 scoreless innings. Ryan O'Hearn's sixth-inning single and a seventh-inning wild pitch by Cade Winquest accounted for both Pittsburgh runs.

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

STARTING PITCHERS

Matthew Liberatore (LHP, Cardinals): Liberatore carries a 5-14 record, a 5.36 ERA, and a 1.49 WHIP across 30 starts and 149.1 innings this season. He has struck out 148 batters against 55 walks. Among NL pitchers with at least 60 innings, he ranks 113th of 129 in ERA (5.36; league average 3.91) and 117th of 129 in WHIP (1.49; league average 1.25), placing him in the poor tier by both cutoffs. His strikeout rate (22.7%) and walk rate (8.4%) both sit at the league average mark for that group. The deeper concern is the times-through-order curve: Liberatore has pitched into a third pass in 27 of 30 starts, and hitters in those 27 starts post a .709 OPS against him in the second pass (243 PA) and a 1.099 OPS in the third pass (117 PA) -- a gap of .390 OPS within the same games.

Lake Bachar (RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates): Bachar is 1-4 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP across 83.1 innings, including 11 starts. He has fanned 87 batters against 35 walks. Among NL pitchers with at least 60 innings, he ranks 50th of 129 in ERA (3.56; league average 3.91) and 33rd of 129 in WHIP (1.14; league average 1.25), the latter placing him in the excellent tier (excellent: WHIP at or below 1.14). His strikeout rate is 25.2% against 10.1% walks. In 11 starts, he has reached a second pass in only a handful of appearances and has not pitched into a third pass -- his per-pass sample across the order is too small (fewer than 50 batters faced per pass beyond the first) to compare across times through the order.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Yesterday's lineup from last night)

Handedness: 4 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Saggese, Winn), 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Torres, Church), 1 SHB (Bernal).

Pirates (Yesterday's lineup from last night)

Handedness: 2 RHB (Griffin, Flores), 5 LHB (Lowe, Cruz, O'Hearn, Horwitz, Gonzalez), 2 SHB (Reynolds, Simon).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Cardinals

JJ Wetherholt -- 2026-09-16: St. Louis Cardinals activated 2B JJ Wetherholt from the 10-day injured list.

Peter Strzelecki -- 2026-09-16: St. Louis Cardinals activated RHP Peter Strzelecki from the 15-day injured list.

Joshua Báez -- 2026-09-18: St. Louis Cardinals placed LF Joshua Báez on the 10-day injured list. Left oblique strain.

Pirates

Braxton Ashcraft -- 2026-09-07: Pittsburgh Pirates placed RHP Braxton Ashcraft on the 15-day injured list retroactive to September 7, 2026. Right arm discomfort.

Ryan O'Hearn -- 2026-09-11: Pittsburgh Pirates activated RF Ryan O'Hearn from the 10-day injured list.

Esmerlyn Valdez -- 2026-09-12: Pittsburgh Pirates placed RF Esmerlyn Valdez on the 10-day injured list. Left hamstring strain.

Kirby Yates -- 2026-09-22: Pittsburgh Pirates activated RHP Kirby Yates from the 15-day injured list.

On the Cardinals side, JJ Wetherholt returned to the roster September 16 and is back in the lineup as a position player. Peter Strzelecki also returned September 16; his role tonight is not confirmed. Joshua Báez went to the injured list September 18 with a left oblique strain and is out for this series.

For the Pittsburgh Pirates, Braxton Ashcraft has been sidelined since September 7 with right arm discomfort and remains unavailable. Ryan O'Hearn returned September 11 and is back in the lineup. Esmerlyn Valdez went on the injured list September 12 with a left hamstring strain. Kirby Yates was activated from the 15-day injured list on September 22 and is available out of the Pirates bullpen tonight.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

Small sample: Nathan Church (2 PA), Iván Herrera (2 PA), Masyn Winn (2 PA), Alec Burleson (1 PA), Thomas Saggese (2 PA), Jordan Walker (1 PA).

Six Cardinals have career BvP history against Lake Bachar, but every row sits at 1 or 2 PA -- noise, not signal. Nathan Church (2 PA, 0-for-2) and Iván Herrera (2 PA, 0-for-2) are hitless in those at-bats; Masyn Winn went 1-for-2 (.500/.500/1.000) in 2 PA. Alec Burleson, Thomas Saggese, and Jordan Walker each have a single plate appearance, all hits, with Saggese and Walker recording extra-base slugging lines of 2.000 in that one at-bat each. None of this registers as a meaningful track record -- the samples are too small to draw conclusions from. No batter clears the danger threshold (10 PA at .400 average or better).

Bench note: JJ Wetherholt, Leo Bernal, and Bryan Torres have no career BvP history against Bachar on file. Tonight's matchup is effectively a blind draw for the full lineup; his 2026 platoon work against left- and right-handed batters carries more weight than this table.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Small sample: Brandon Lowe (2 PA), Spencer Horwitz (1 PA).

Bryan Reynolds carries the most meaningful career BvP line against Matthew Liberatore: 4 hits in 12 at-bats (.333/.333/.667) with a home run and three strikeouts across 12 PA. Oneil Cruz has seen him 13 times (11 AB) and is 1-for-11 (.091/.231/.182) with two walks and three strikeouts. Brandon Lowe (2 PA) and Spencer Horwitz (1 PA) have samples too small to carry weight. The five Pittsburgh batters with no career history against Liberatore -- Konnor Griffin, Rafael Flores Jr., Ryan O'Hearn, Ronny Simon, and Jacob Gonzalez -- enter tonight without a prior plate appearance against him on file.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs RHP (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.

Lake Bachar is stronger against right-handed batters this season (.581 OPS allowed, compared with .696 OPS allowed against left-handed batters), so the Cardinals' four left-handed hitters — JJ Wetherholt, Alec Burleson, Bryan Torres, and Nathan Church — face the side where he has allowed more damage. The four right-handed bats face his stronger split.

Burleson leads the group against right-handed pitching this season: a .928 OPS across 453 plate appearances, which ranks 6th of 229 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching (league average .701). Jordan Walker posts a .773 OPS across 476 PA, 59th of 229. Iván Herrera's 2026 mark vs right-handers is .711 across 484 PA, 115th of 229. JJ Wetherholt sits at .729 across 389 PA, 98th of 229.

Among the lineup's other right-handed hitters, Masyn Winn's 2026 vs-RHP OPS is .593 across 384 PA, 187th of 229, and Thomas Saggese checks in at .596 across 115 PA, 182nd of 229. Nathan Church, a left-handed bat, posts a .684 OPS vs right-handers across 354 PA, 130th of 229; Bryan Torres carries a .682 OPS across 153 PA, 134th of 229. Leo Bernal, the switch-hitter batting fifth, has 59 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching in 2026 — too small a sample to grade.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs LHP (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.

Pittsburgh carries five left-handed hitters, two right-handed, and two switch-hitters against Matthew Liberatore tonight. Against left-handed pitching this season Liberatore has allowed a .810 OPS across 167 batters faced -- his slightly stronger side compared with .824 OPS allowed against right-handers across 485 batters faced. The five left-handed bats in Pittsburgh's lineup face that stronger split.

Among those left-handers, Oneil Cruz is the sharpest threat. His 2026 OPS vs. left-handed pitching is .849 across 134 plate appearances, 32nd of 161 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs. left-handed pitching (league average .730). Brandon Lowe's 2026 line vs. left-handers reads .220 AVG and .632 OPS across 203 plate appearances, 120th of 161 in that pool. Ryan O'Hearn checks in at .586 OPS across 132 plate appearances vs. lefties in 2026, 139th of 161. Spencer Horwitz posts a .627 OPS across 86 plate appearances vs. left-handers this season, 122nd of 161.

Bryan Reynolds, a switch-hitter who bats right-handed against Liberatore -- the side where Liberatore has allowed more damage -- carries a 2026 OPS of .815 vs. left-handed pitching across 235 plate appearances, 47th of 161 NL batters in that split. Ronny Simon, also a switch-hitter, has just 19 plate appearances vs. left-handed pitching this season -- too small a sample to rate; his 2025 line across 14 plate appearances was .167/.231/.167.

The two right-handed hitters, Konnor Griffin and Rafael Flores Jr., face Liberatore's weaker side (.824 OPS allowed against right-handers). Griffin's 2026 OPS vs. left-handed pitching is .837 across 84 plate appearances, 36th of 161 NL batters in that split. Rafael Flores Jr. owns a .917 OPS vs. left-handed pitching across 73 plate appearances this season, 11th of 161 in that pool. Jacob Gonzalez has 33 plate appearances vs. left-handed pitching this season -- too small a sample to rate.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Lake Bachar's stronger side this season is against right-handers: 2026 OPS allowed of .581 across 149 batters faced, ranking 47th of 241 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs right-handed batters (.581; league average .698). Against left-handers, his 2026 OPS allowed rises to .696 across 196 batters faced, ranking 104th of 230 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs left-handed batters (.696; league average .714). The Cardinals send four left-handed bats to the plate against Bachar tonight -- Wetherholt, Burleson, Torres, and Church -- along with four right-handers and switch-hitter Bernal. The left-handed group faces his weaker split.

Matthew Liberatore's stronger side this season is against left-handers: 2026 OPS allowed of .810 across 167 batters faced, ranking 173rd of 230 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs left-handed batters (.810; league average .714). Against right-handers, his 2026 OPS allowed is .824 across 485 batters faced, ranking 203rd of 241 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs right-handed batters (.824; league average .698). Pittsburgh's lineup leans left-handed: Lowe, Cruz, O'Hearn, Horwitz, and Gonzalez bat left, against two right-handers in Griffin and Flores, and two switch-hitters in Reynolds and Simon. The five left-handed bats face Liberatore's slightly stronger split, while the two right-handers face the side where hitters have fared better.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Pittsburgh Pirates is the home team tonight at PNC Park. Lake Bachar has been sharply better at home this season: a 2.27 ERA in 39.2 innings (40th of 195 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched at home; league average 3.88), compared with a 4.74 ERA in 43.2 innings on the road (127th of 185 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched on the road; league average 4.06). The 2025 historical rows reinforce the same pattern: a 6.55 ERA in 34.1 innings at home against a 3.68 ERA in 36.2 innings away -- Bachar was notably worse at home last season, the reverse of his 2026 form.

Matthew Liberatore pitches away from Busch Stadium tonight. His 2026 road ERA is 5.27 in 70.0 innings (145th of 185 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched on the road; league average 4.06), and his home ERA is 5.45 in 79.1 innings (161st of 195 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched at home; league average 3.88) -- both figures land in the bottom quarter of NL qualifiers. The 2025 rows ran the other way: a 3.69 ERA in 75.2 home innings against a 4.03 ERA in 76.0 away innings -- better at home last season, better on the road this season.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Lake Bachar has pitched into a third pass in 0 of 11 starts. Early hooks: 11 starts, 4 PA. Matthew Liberatore has pitched into a third pass in 27 of 30 starts. In the 27 starts he pitched into a third pass, hitters posted a .709 OPS on the second pass -- 243 PA. From the third pass on in those same starts: 1.099 OPS -- 117 PA. Pooled within-game delta, third pass and beyond minus second pass, survival starts only: +.390 OPS. Early hooks: 3 starts, 22 PA. Per-pass rate stats resting on fewer than 50 PA render as their PA count, never as a decimal; 2026 companion columns carry their own 60 BF floor (below floor renders SSS).

Lake Bachar has pitched into a third pass in 0 of 11 starts. His 2026 first-pass line of .588 OPS across 94 batters faced holds up across a larger 2025 sample of 284 PA, where he allowed a .695 OPS -- 159th of 344 2025 NL pitchers with at least 50 PA in the first pass (league average .734). His 2026 second-pass sample is 4 batters faced, and his 2025 second-pass sample is 12 PA -- both too small to report split rates reliably. The order never reaches him a second time in any meaningful volume.

Matthew Liberatore has pitched into a third pass in 27 of 30 starts. His 2026 first-pass line is .731 OPS across 270 batters faced, and his second-pass line is .795 across 265. Last season his first-pass .657 ranked 120th of 344 2025 NL pitchers with at least 50 PA in the first pass (league average .734), and his second-pass .871 ranked 107th of 132 (league average .742). In the 27 starts he was left in long enough to face a third pass, hitters posted a .709 OPS in the second pass across 243 PA -- then 1.099 OPS from the third pass on across 117 PA, a within-game swing of +.390 OPS. His 2025 third-pass figure of .641 OPS across 132 PA ranks 16th of 84 2025 NL pitchers with at least 50 PA in the third pass (league average .781), but this season's 2026 third-pass line of 1.099 OPS across 117 BF is where he is being hit hardest. Manager Oliver Marmol has pulled Liberatore before a third pass in only 3 of 30 starts.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

2025's league average strand rate was 68.8%, per a proxy measure covering the full season. Two of the four Cardinals relievers in this table fell below that mark in 2025. Kyle Leahy stranded 62.1% of 29 inherited runners in 2025 and Gordon Graceffo 54.5% of 11 -- the lowest of the group; Riley O'Brien stranded 70.0% of 10, just above the mark. Michael McGreevy did not allow any of his three inherited runners to score, a 100.0% strand rate across a small sample. In current form, Graceffo carries 78.1 innings, a 2.76 ERA, and a 1.09 WHIP in 2026; Leahy has logged 138.0 innings with a 3.65 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. O'Brien has thrown 64.0 innings to a 4.08 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, and McGreevy 164.0 innings to a 3.84 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- PIT

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

2025 GB% types every ball in play; 2026 GO% is the ground-out share of outs in play (GO / (GO+AO), statsapi) -- different measures, both labeled. 2026 GO% reads "SSS" below 50 GO+AO; at or above it the 2026 figure leads and the 2025 GB% is last season's.

Matthew Liberatore brought a 2025 ground-ball rate of 39.1% across 463 balls in play -- a flyball-leaning profile that favors a lineup capable of lifting the ball. Lake Bachar ran an even split in 2025, 36.0% ground balls and 36.0% fly balls across 178 balls in play, with a 26.4% line-drive rate.

Against Liberatore, the Pirates' contact shape cuts against him where he already allows fly balls. Oneil Cruz, Spencer Horwitz, Brandon Lowe, Ryan O'Hearn, and Bryan Reynolds all carry 2026 GO+AO counts above 50, so the 2026 ground-out share leads for each. Cruz's 2026 GO% sits at 63.4% across 123 GO+AO -- he puts the ball on the ground at a high rate, which works in Liberatore's favor given the Cardinals' starter's flyball-allowing tendency; Cruz's last-season fly-ball average was .043 across 70 AB. Horwitz (45.1% GO%, 215 GO+AO), Lowe (43.9% GO%, 244 GO+AO), O'Hearn (50.5% GO%, 196 GO+AO), and Reynolds (52.2% GO%, 276 GO+AO) are more balanced, each posting last-season line-drive averages between .600 and .678 -- the contact type Liberatore surrendered at a 27.6% rate in 2025. Rafael Flores (8 AB across all batted-ball types, below floor) and Ronny Simon (30 GO+AO, below floor) carry too small a 2026 sample for rate-based conclusions.

Against Bachar, the Cardinals face a starter whose 2025 line-drive rate was 26.4% as well, with fly balls matching ground balls at 36.0% each. The Cardinals' left-handed batters draw from Bachar's softer 2026 side (.696 OPS allowed vs. left-handed batters, compared with .581 allowed vs. right-handers).

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

Yohel Pozo and Jimmy Crooks, who appear in the 2025 pairing data, are not on the Cardinals' active roster tonight. Leo Bernal, who caught last night, projects behind the plate; he did not catch Liberatore in 2025, the season these pairing figures cover. Among catchers on the current active roster, Pedro Pagés carries the largest 2025 pairing sample with Liberatore: 15 games, 75.2 innings, a 3.93 ERA and .279 opponent average.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Pittsburgh runners. Oneil Cruz is the Pittsburgh running threat with a 2026 success rate of 80.0% on 28 steals and 7 caught in 35 attempts. His 2025 baseline: 88.4% on 38 steals and 5 caught. Bryan Reynolds has 9 steals and 0 caught stealing in 2026, a sample too small to carry a rate; he went 3 for 5 in steal attempts in 2025. Brandon Lowe has 2 steals and 0 caught in 2026 (too small for a rate); 3 steals and 2 caught in 2025. Ryan O'Hearn has 1 steal and 0 caught in 2026 (too small for a rate); 3 steals and 1 caught in 2025. Ronny Simon has 3 steals and 0 caught in 2026 (too small for a rate); 1 steal and 0 caught in 2025. Spencer Horwitz has 1 steal and 0 caught in 2026 (too small for a rate).

Pittsburgh catcher. Rafael Flores Jr. is the starting catcher tonight. He has thrown out 16.7% of baserunners in 2026 (6 caught, 36 attempts). Henry Davis, the other Pittsburgh catcher, holds a 45.9% mark on 17 caught in 37 attempts.

Cardinals catchers. Pedro Pagés has caught 31.7% of runners in 2026 (19 caught, 60 attempts). Leo Bernal has caught 18.2% (4 caught, 22 attempts). Leo Bernal is the starting catcher tonight per the projected lineup.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Masyn Winn logged 129 games at shortstop in 2025, committing 3 errors across 64 double-play opportunities for a .994 fielding percentage. Jordan Walker's 2025 right-field sample spans 108 games, 4 errors, and a .981 fielding percentage -- the same position he holds in tonight's lineup. Alec Burleson's most extensive 2025 fielding work came at first base (50 games, .990 Fld%, 27 double plays), where he is slotted tonight. Thomas Saggese's 2025 record at third base covers 18 games and a .939 fielding percentage; he starts there tonight. Nathan Church was error-free across 18 center-field games in 2025 (1.000 Fld%); he mans center field tonight. JJ Wetherholt, Leo Bernal, and Bryan Torres have no 2025 fielding record on file in this table; no defensive figures from these rows apply to their starts tonight.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Against the Pittsburgh Pirates from 2022-2025, the Cardinals went 13-6, 4-9, 8-5, and 6-7 in successive seasons -- a mixed four-year stretch with no consistent lean either way.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Contact: Alec Burleson set the group's lowest 2025 strikeout rate at 14.5% across 544 plate appearances; 2026 to date: 17.6% across 655 plate appearances, below the league average of 22.1%. Iván Herrera (2025: 18.7%, 450 PA; 2026: 18.8%, 696 PA) and JJ Wetherholt (2026: 16.8%) also sit below that mark. Jordan Walker's 2025 strikeout rate of 31.8% across 396 plate appearances was above the league average; 2026 to date: 25.8% across 647 plate appearances. Thomas Saggese posted 28.1% across 295 plate appearances in 2025, above the league average; 2026 to date: 26.1% across 165 plate appearances. Nathan Church's 2025 figure of 27.7% came across 65 plate appearances; 2026 to date: 17.1% across 455 plate appearances.

Patience: Saggese's 2025 walk rate of 5.4% across 295 plate appearances and Church's 4.6% across 65 plate appearances both fell below the league average of 8.9%; 2026 to date, their walk rates stand at 7.9% (165 PA) and 5.5% (455 PA) respectively.

Pirates

Contact: Oneil Cruz carries the sharpest strikeout profile: 32.0% across 544 plate appearances in 2025 — above the league average of 22.1%; 2026 to date: 33.4% across 410 plate appearances. Brandon Lowe posted 26.9% across 553 plate appearances in 2025, above the league average; 2026 to date: 28.8% across 639 plate appearances. Bryan Reynolds struck out at 26.5% across 654 plate appearances in 2025, above the league average; 2026 to date: 23.1% across 684 plate appearances. Konnor Griffin's 2026 strikeout rate stands at 24.8%, above the league average. Spencer Horwitz is the group's most consistent contact hitter: 17.8% across 411 plate appearances in 2025; 2026 to date: 15.8% across 436 plate appearances. Ronny Simon's 55 plate appearances in 2026 are too small to report reliable rates; his 2025 figure of 17.0% came across 88 plate appearances. Rafael Flores Jr.'s 2025 strikeout rate of 41.2% came across 17 plate appearances, a sample too small to carry weight.

Patience: Cruz (2025 BB%: 11.8%, 544 PA; 2026: 11.2%, 410 PA), Ryan O'Hearn (2025: 10.7%, 544 PA; 2026: 7.9%, 433 PA), and Spencer Horwitz (2025: 10.7%, 411 PA; 2026: 11.9%, 436 PA) lead the group in walk rate. Brandon Lowe's 2025 walk rate of 6.9% across 553 plate appearances fell below the league average of 8.9%; 2026 to date: 9.4% across 639 plate appearances. Matthew Liberatore's walk rate (8.4%) and strikeout rate (22.7%) this season both sit at the league average for NL pitchers with at least 60 innings — the five left-handed Pittsburgh hitters in tonight's lineup face his stronger side (.810 OPS allowed against left-handed batters this season, compared with .824 against right-handed batters).

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Lake Bachar's last season ground-ball rate was 36.0% across 178 balls in play -- he allowed fly balls at an equal rate (36.0%) and line drives at 26.4%, making him a relatively fly-ball-permissive arm. Iván Herrera's 2026 GO% leads at 56.2% (317 GO+AO), reinforcing his last season 52.6% GB% across 285 BIP as the lineup's heaviest ground-ball profile. Jordan Walker carried a 48.9% GB% last season (231 BIP); his 2026 GO% is 48.9% (266 GO+AO). Alec Burleson's 2026 GO% is 51.3% (314 GO+AO), with a last season 42.0% GB% across 398 BIP -- he pulled more fly balls last season than his 2026 ground-out share suggests. Thomas Saggese's 2026 GO% reads 43.1% across 72 GO+AO; last season he went 41.8% GB% across 189 BIP. Masyn Winn's 2026 GO% is 46.4% (250 GO+AO), with a last season 39.6% GB% over 376 BIP -- the most fly-ball-oriented profile among the qualifying Cardinals. Nathan Church logged 37 BIP last season, too few to report split rates; his 2026 GO% is 47.1% (242 GO+AO). Against a pitcher who allowed fly balls and line drives at roughly equal rates last season, Burleson's elevated fly-ball profile and Winn's carry the most contact-shape alignment.

Pirates

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

2025 GB% types every ball in play; 2026 GO% is the ground-out share of outs in play (GO / (GO+AO), statsapi) -- different measures, both labeled. 2026 GO% reads "SSS" below 50 GO+AO; at or above it the 2026 figure leads and the 2025 GB% is last season's.

Matthew Liberatore's last season ground-ball rate was 39.1% across 463 balls in play -- he ran a 31.3% fly-ball rate and a 27.6% line-drive rate, a profile below the 47.0% league-average ground-ball rate, meaning he has historically allowed contact to stay elevated. His 2026 ground-ball rate is 40.1%, still below the league average. Bryan Reynolds leans to the ground: 2026 GO% of 52.2% (276 GO+AO), reinforcing a last season 49.5% GB% across 398 BIP. Oneil Cruz's 2026 GO% is 63.4% (123 GO+AO), with a last season 52.7% GB% across 277 BIP -- the steepest ground-ball lean in the lineup. Ryan O'Hearn posted a last season 47.7% GB% across 348 BIP; his 2026 GO% is 50.5% (196 GO+AO). Brandon Lowe's 2026 GO% is 43.9% (244 GO+AO), with a last season 42.2% GB% over 327 BIP. Spencer Horwitz ran a last season 40.0% GB% across 280 BIP; his 2026 GO% is 45.1% (215 GO+AO). Ronny Simon's last season GB% was 54.1% across 61 BIP; his 2026 GO+AO total of 30 is below the floor, so no 2026 GO% is reported. Rafael Flores logged 8 BIP last season, too few to report split rates, and his 2026 GO+AO is not reported. Liberatore's fly-ball and line-drive contact rates align most with Lowe and Horwitz, each of whom pulls a meaningful share of contact into the air.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

The table above carries 2025 figures. Matthew Liberatore posted an 18.8% strikeout rate and a 6.2% walk rate across 151.2 innings in 2025, producing a 3.05 K/BB ratio. In 2026, his strikeout rate is 22.7% -- average among NL pitchers with at least 60 innings (58th of 129; league average 22.7%) -- and his walk rate is 8.4%, also average (71st of 129; league average 8.4%).

Lake Bachar posted a 25.3% strikeout rate and a 10.1% walk rate across 71.0 innings in 2025, a 2.50 K/BB ratio. In 2026, his strikeout rate is 25.2%, above average among NL pitchers with at least 60 innings (40th of 129; league average 22.7%). His 2026 walk rate is 10.1% across 345 batters faced, 99th of 129 (league average 8.4%).

KEY MATCHUPS

Liberatore's third-pass collapse. Matthew Liberatore has pitched into a third pass in 27 of 30 starts this season. In those starts, hitters post a 1.099 OPS against him on the third pass, compared with .709 OPS in the second pass of those same starts -- a .390 gap. His third-pass figures come only from the starts he was left in. Pittsburgh will almost certainly see that third pass tonight.

Bachar's home/away split. Lake Bachar is stronger at home this season: .541 OPS allowed at PNC Park, compared with .736 OPS allowed on the road. His home ERA is 2.27 (40th of 195 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched at home; league average 3.88), and he has never reached a third pass through the order in 11 starts this season -- St. Louis must score against him early.

Bryan Reynolds career BvP vs. Liberatore. Reynolds is 4-for-12 with a home run against Matthew Liberatore in career plate appearances, posting a .333 average and .667 slugging. The sample sits below the floor for a graded split but is the deepest any Pittsburgh batter carries against tonight's starter. Reynolds also hits better with runners in scoring position than his overall line: .868 OPS with RISP across 160 plate appearances this season, compared with .790 overall.

Pittsburgh's left-heavy lineup vs. Liberatore's platoon split. Pittsburgh sends five left-handed hitters and two switch-hitters tonight. Matthew Liberatore is stronger against left-handed batters this season -- .810 OPS allowed versus .824 OPS allowed against right-handed batters -- but the margin is narrow (14 points) and his .810 figure against left-handers ranks 173rd of 230 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs. left-handed batters (league average .714).

WATCHLIST

-- Liberatore's leash. If Matthew Liberatore reaches a third pass of the Pittsburgh order, watch for Oliver Marmol to act -- he has pulled Liberatore before a third pass in only 3 of 30 starts this season.

-- Oneil Cruz vs. Liberatore late. If Oneil Cruz reaches a third-pass plate appearance against Liberatore, watch for damage. Cruz's career line against Liberatore is 1-for-11 across 13 plate appearances -- too small to compare -- but his 2026 line vs. left-handed pitching is .849 OPS across 134 PA, nearly even with his .854 against right-handers. The season production is what carries weight here, not the BvP sample.

-- Oneil Cruz on the bases. If Oneil Cruz reaches base, watch the running game. Cruz has stolen 28 bases in 35 attempts this season (80.0%), and Leo Bernal, projected behind the plate for St. Louis, has thrown out 18.2% of would-be base stealers (4 of 22).

-- Alec Burleson first-pass window. If Alec Burleson reaches base in his first at-bat against Lake Bachar, the Cardinals need to convert -- across 11 starts this season, Bachar has faced only 4 batters a second time through the order and has never reached a third pass, so the first trip may be St. Louis's only look at him.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Jordan Walker performed against Lake Bachar in their career?

2. How has Bryan Reynolds performed against Matthew Liberatore in their career?

3. How has Oneil Cruz performed against Matthew Liberatore in their career?

4. What are Matthew Liberatore's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. How has Oneil Cruz performed against left-handed pitchers in 2025?

6. What is Kyle Leahy's inherited-runner strand rate in 2025?

7. What are the park factors at PNC Park in 2025?