YESTERDAY

Matthew Liberatore struck out nine over six innings but surrendered Sal Stewart's three-run home run (No. 27) in the sixth, flipping a 2–0 Cardinals lead into a 3–2 deficit. Justin Bruihl allowed three hits and two earned runs in the eighth — a Blaze Jordan error on a Matt McLain bunt scored Jose Trevino, and Dane Myers added an RBI single. Jordan Walker's two-run home run (No. 25) in the ninth brought the Cardinals within one, but Cincinnati held on, 5–4. STL falls to 65–63; the series heads into today's finale tied 2–2.

What worked: Liberatore (6.0 IP, 4 H, 9 K) and a clean bridge from Luis Gastelum (1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K). Nathan Church and Bryan Torres each drove in a run in the fourth. Walker's ninth-inning homer kept the Cardinals in it. What didn't: Bruihl's eighth-inning collapse (3 H, 2 ER), a Blaze Jordan error that opened the door, and McLain going 3-for-3 from the bottom of the order.

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

STARTING PITCHERS

Michael McGreevy enters today at 5–9 with a 3.48 ERA across 24 starts and 132.0 innings pitched in 2026 (91 K, 34 BB, 1.22 WHIP). He pitches on the road today, where his 2026 ERA is 3.55 — nearly identical to his 3.41 mark at home. No meaningful home/away split to factor.

Brady Singer enters today at 5–11 with a 4.66 ERA across 24 starts and 125.2 innings pitched in 2026 (104 K, 42 BB, 1.44 WHIP). He pitches at home today, where his 2026 ERA is 3.62 — well under his 5.75 ERA on the road. Home context works in his favor.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Yesterday's lineup from 2026-08-19)

Handedness: 4 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Jordan), 5 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Church, Torres, Crooks).

Reds (Yesterday's lineup from 2026-08-19)

Handedness: 6 RHB (Stewart, Myers, Suárez, Stephenson, Trevino, McLain), 1 LHB (Bleday), 2 SHB (Cruz, Toglia).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Reds

Blake Dunn -- 2026-08-06: Cincinnati Reds transferred CF Blake Dunn from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Right elbow sprain.

Nick Lodolo -- 2026-08-11: Cincinnati Reds activated LHP Nick Lodolo from the 15-day injured list.

Hunter Greene -- 2026-08-11: Cincinnati Reds transferred RHP Hunter Greene from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Right elbow soreness.

The Reds have absorbed two significant rotation losses in August — Blake Dunn and Hunter Greene are each on the 60-day list with elbow issues. Lodolo's activation on August 11 returns a piece to the pitching staff. No Cardinals are listed with injury designations heading into today's game.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

Small sample: Alec Burleson (8 PA), Jordan Walker (7 PA), Masyn Winn (6 PA), Jimmy Crooks (4 PA), Iván Herrera (6 PA), Nathan Church (2 PA).

Alec Burleson and Masyn Winn have had Singer's number in limited career looks — each with a home run in under 10 plate appearances. Jordan Walker owns a 0-for-7 mark with four strikeouts against him, the sharpest contrast on the roster. Three Cardinals starters — Wetherholt, Jordan, and Torres — have no career plate appearances against Singer.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Small sample: Matt McLain (4 PA), Tyler Stephenson (3 PA), Sal Stewart (3 PA), Jose Trevino (2 PA), Michael Toglia (2 PA), Eugenio Suárez (2 PA).

The Reds' lineup has no established track record against McGreevy — all six players in the career table are hitless. Sal Stewart is the lone hitter to reach base, working a walk in 3 career plate appearances (0-for-2, .333 OBP). Three Reds starters — Cruz, Myers, and Bleday — have no career plate appearances against him at all.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). The 2026 column never leads in this section -- 2025 vs-hand always leads, regardless of 2026 sample size.

Alec Burleson (.296/.353/.478 in 419 PA against RHP in 2025) and Iván Herrera (.268/.343/.399 in 328 PA) are the most reliable producers in this matchup. Jordan Walker's .200 average against right-handed pitching in 289 PA is the structural vulnerability — Singer's 2026 edge against right-handers (.699 OPS, 197 BF) is positioned to exploit it. Nathan Church (51 PA) and Jimmy Crooks (38 PA) are below the 60-PA sample floor for platoon splits; their 2025 RHP figures carry elevated uncertainty.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). The 2026 column never leads in this section -- 2025 vs-hand always leads, regardless of 2026 sample size.

Eugenio Suárez leads the Reds against right-handed pitching with a .552 SLG in 473 PA in 2025 — the power threat to monitor against McGreevy. Sal Stewart's .521 SLG comes from a smaller 2025 sample (51 PA) but is consistent with his 2026 production. JJ Bleday, the lone left-handed regular, posted a .377 SLG against right-handers in 271 PA despite a .180 average. Toglia (.176, 241 PA) and Myers (.208, 216 PA) are the softest contact profiles in the group against this hand.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

The operative split today is Singer's exposure to left-handed bats. 2026 to date: .872 OPS against left-handed batters (360 BF). 2025 baseline: .790 OPS (404 PA). The Cardinals send five left-handed starters — Wetherholt, Burleson, Church, Torres, and Crooks. Against right-handers, Singer has held opponents to a .699 OPS (197 BF) in 2026.

McGreevy runs the reverse. 2026 to date: .685 OPS against right-handed batters (196 BF). 2025 baseline: .580 OPS (210 PA). The Reds send six right-handed starters, which plays directly into his strength.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Singer pitches at home today. 2026 to date: 3.62 ERA at Great American Ball Park (64.2 IP), compared to 5.75 ERA on the road (61.0 IP). 2025 baseline: 3.29 home ERA (90.1 IP, 366 BF). Home context works in his favor and partially offsets his TTO2 vulnerability.

McGreevy goes on the road. 2026 to date: 3.55 away ERA (66.0 IP), nearly matching his 3.41 home ERA (66.0 IP). 2025 baseline: 3.55 away ERA (45.2 IP, 188 BF). No meaningful home/away split to factor for McGreevy today.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Singer's second-pass number is the most actionable split in this game. 2026 to date: .978 OPS the second time through the order (215 BF), bracketed by .684 in the first pass (216 BF) and .735 in the third (126 BF). 2025 baseline: .756 OPS in TTO2 (277 PA) — but note that the 2025 pattern ran in the opposite direction (.767 TTO1, .756 TTO2, .554 TTO3). The 2026 pattern represents a structural change in how hitters are reading Singer the second time through, not a continuation of a prior trend. All three 2026 TTO samples clear the 60-BF floor.

McGreevy shows modest, gradual drift. 2026 to date: .676 TTO1 (216 BF), .748 TTO2 (213 BF), .771 TTO3 (109 BF). 2025 baseline: .792 TTO1, .715 TTO2, .677 TTO3. No single-pass spike comparable to Singer's.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

Leahy has stranded 62.1% of inherited runners in 2025 (11 scored of 29 inherited), slightly below the 68.8% league average. Graceffo's 54.5% strand rate (5 scored of 11) is the softest mark among named Cardinals relievers — the soft spot in the bullpen when runners are on. O'Brien leads the group at 70.0% (3 scored of 10), matching league average. McGreevy himself stranded all three inherited runners in his 2025 relief appearance (100.0%, 1 entry — small sample).

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)

Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- CIN

McGreevy generated ground balls at 49.2% in 2025 (307 BIP) — well above Singer's 40.6% (461 BIP). Against a Cincinnati lineup where every regular in the table posts a line-drive average above .550, McGreevy's ground-ball profile keeps contact off the barrel and generates double-play opportunities with runners on base. Singer's 32.5% fly-ball inducement rate pairs with several Reds hitters who are fly-ball oriented: Suárez (41.4% FB) and Bleday (41.1% FB) are among the most likely to generate fly-ball contact against him.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

Jimmy Crooks starts behind the plate today — only his third game working with McGreevy by 2025 pairing data (2G, 8.2 IP, 9.35 ERA together). Pedro Pagés is McGreevy's established battery partner (14G, 80.2 IP, 4.24 ERA in 2025). Yohel Pozo appears in the table (1G, 5.2 IP, 0.00 ERA) but is not on the active roster. Crooks has made 14 throwing attempts this season; his caught-stealing rate is not published (under the 20-attempt minimum).

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

McLain (90.0%, 18 SB in 2025) and Myers (78.3%, 18 SB) are active baserunning threats at the top and middle of the Cincinnati lineup. Jimmy Crooks starts at catcher today; his caught-stealing rate is not published this season (14 attempts, under the 20-attempt minimum). By contrast, Pedro Pagés posted a 31.5% caught-stealing rate in 54 attempts in 2025.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Masyn Winn's .994 fielding percentage at shortstop (129G in 2025) is the steadiest mark in the Cardinals infield. Jordan Walker logged 108 games at right field at .981. Jimmy Crooks is perfect defensively behind the plate in 14 games (1.000). A Blaze Jordan error in last night's eighth inning — which allowed a run to score on a McLain bunt — is live context for defensive execution under pressure entering today's game.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

STL and CIN have split the 2025 head-to-head series 7–6. In prior seasons: Cardinals 6–7 in 2024, 7–6 in 2023, 12–7 in 2022. This five-game series at Cincinnati enters its finale today tied 2–2.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Alec Burleson's 14.5% K% is the most contact-friendly profile among the Cardinals regulars in this table — well under the 22.1% league average. Jordan Walker (31.8% K%) and Jimmy Crooks (37.0% K%, 0.0% BB%) face the highest swing-and-miss risk against Singer, who struck out 22.8% of batters faced in 2025. Nathan Church's 27.7% K% combined with a 4.6% BB% in his 2025 RHP sample (65 PA) limits his on-base upside in this matchup.

Reds

Michael Toglia's 39.2% K% leads the Reds in swing-and-miss risk — McGreevy's contact-generating approach (14.5% K%, 2.90 K/BB in 2025) is well-suited to generate early-count outs against him. Jose Trevino's 12.9% K% is the softest contact risk in the Cincinnati lineup; he makes contact consistently but rarely walks (5.0% BB%). JJ Bleday's 26.5% K% is partially offset by his 10.5% BB% — the best combined K/BB profile among the eight Reds regulars listed.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Nathan Church's 67.6% ground-ball rate in 2025 (37 BIP) is the heaviest ground-ball tendency in the Cardinals lineup. Iván Herrera is next at 52.6% (285 BIP). Jimmy Crooks shows a 44.4% fly-ball rate in a 27-BIP sample — small enough that the number may not be stable. Against Singer's 32.5% fly-ball inducement rate, the Cardinals' overall ground-ball lean suppresses the ball-in-play type Singer generates most often.

Reds

Every Reds regular in this table posts a line-drive average above .550 — a lineup that does damage when it elevates contact. Eugenio Suárez's 41.4% fly-ball rate (343 BIP) is a power signal against Singer, who induces fly balls at 32.5%. Jose Trevino is the heaviest ground-ball hitter in the group at 48.3% (236 BIP) — a profile aligned with McGreevy's 49.2% GB rate, which limits the damage ceiling when Trevino puts the ball in play.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

Singer's 22.8% K% sits just above the 22.1% league average, with an 8.4% walk rate slightly under the 8.9% average. His K/BB ratio of 2.72 reflects solid command relative to his strikeout volume. McGreevy's 14.5% K% is well below average — he pitches to contact — but his 5.0% walk rate is among the lowest in the league, and his 2.90 K/BB ratio reflects command that minimizes free bases even without high strikeout upside.

KEY MATCHUPS

Burleson and Winn vs. Singer: Alec Burleson is batting .429 with a 1.143 SLG in 8 career plate appearances against Singer, including a home run. Masyn Winn has a .400 average in 6 career PA, also with a home run. Jordan Walker is 0-for-7 with four strikeouts — the sharpest contrast within the same lineup.

Singer's platoon exposure: Five Cardinals starters bat left-handed, and Singer's 2026 OPS against left-handed batters is .872 (360 BF). Against right-handers he's held opponents to .699 (197 BF). The Cardinals' lineup construction creates a structural advantage today.

McGreevy vs. the right-handed Reds: Six Cincinnati starters hit right-handed. McGreevy's 2026 OPS allowed against right-handers is .685 (196 BF), well under his .745 against left-handers (342 BF). The Reds' right-dominant alignment plays into his strength.

The TTO window: Singer's 2026 TTO2 OPS is .978 (215 BF), against .684 in the first pass (216 BF) and .735 in the third (126 BF). The Cardinals' second trip through the batting order is this morning's central tactical opportunity.

WATCHLIST

Singer's second pass: The Cardinals' second trip through the batting order is where Singer's 2026 numbers spike to a .978 OPS (215 BF). That window opens in roughly the fourth and fifth innings — the tactical moment of the game.

Crooks behind the plate: Jimmy Crooks is catching today — his third appearance alongside McGreevy by 2025 pairing data (2G, 9.35 ERA together). Matt McLain ran at 90.0% in 2025 (18 SB); Crooks' caught-stealing rate is not published this season (14 attempts, below the minimum). The running game is a live variable.

Walker vs. Singer: Jordan Walker is 0-for-7 with four strikeouts in his career against Singer. His 31.8% K% against right-handed pitching (2025) makes him the highest-risk bat in the lineup if Singer locates his fastball early.

McGreevy's contact approach: His 49.2% GB rate in 2025 pairs well against a Cincinnati lineup that hits line drives at .550+ across the board. When the pitch count climbs in innings 4–6, Kyle Leahy (3.24 ERA, 122.1 IP in 2026) and Riley O'Brien (2.96 ERA, 51.2 IP) are the established bridge options — with Gordon Graceffo (54.5% inherited-runner strand rate, below the 68.8% league average) as the soft spot.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

TTO tracker: TTO1 = Cardinals' first pass through the batting order (roughly innings 1–3). TTO2 = second pass (roughly innings 4–5). Singer's 2026 TTO2 OPS is .978 (215 BF) — flag those at-bats as the game's central inflection point.

Crooks' arm: 14 caught-stealing attempts this season; rate not published (under the 20-attempt minimum). McLain (90.0%, 18 SB in 2025) and Myers (78.3%, 18 SB) are the primary threats to run.

Trend Watch check-in: Liberatore's season strikeout total stands at 125 (personal best, passing 122 set in 2025). Burleson's runs scored stand at 72 (personal best, passing 71 set in 2024). Both milestones landed 128 team games into the season.

Reliever watch: If McGreevy exits — 24 starts, 132.0 IP this season — Kyle Leahy (3.24 ERA, 122.1 IP in 2026) and Riley O'Brien (2.96 ERA, 51.2 IP) are the primary bridge options. Graceffo's 54.5% inherited-runner strand rate (below the 68.8% league average) is the soft spot to avoid with runners on.