Player	Pos	Bats
Bohm	3B	R
Marsh	LF	L
Cruz	RF	R
Harper	1B	L
Stott	2B	L
Hill	CF	R
Sosa	LF	R
Stubbs	C	L
Realmuto	C	R
Crawford	CF	L
Schwarber	DH	L
Arraez	2B	L
Turner	SS	R

Handedness: 6 RHB (Bohm, Cruz, Hill, Sosa, Realmuto, Turner), 7 LHB (Marsh, Harper, Stott, Stubbs, Crawford, Schwarber, Arraez).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Phillies

Caleb Kilian -- 2026-08-10: Philadelphia Phillies placed RHP Caleb Kilian on the 15-day injured list. Left oblique strain.

Felix Reyes -- 2026-08-20: Philadelphia Phillies transferred LF Felix Reyes from the 7-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Right wrist fracture.

No Cardinals players are on the injured list entering this series.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

Small sample: Jordan Walker (8 PA), Iván Herrera (5 PA).

Only two Cardinals hitters in the projected lineup have career history against Luzardo in the data. Jordan Walker's 8 PA (.250/.250/.250, 2 K, 0 BB) and Iván Herrera's 5 PA (.250/.400/.500) are both too small to carry standalone predictive weight. The platoon splits in section 2C provide the more reliable reference for tonight.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

No data available for this section.

The Cardinals have not announced a starter for tonight. No opponent history is available for this section.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). The 2026 column never leads in this section -- 2025 vs-hand always leads, regardless of 2026 sample size.

Jordan Walker's 2026 line against left-handed pitching — .288 AVG and .918 OPS across 144 plate appearances — is the strongest current-season split in the projected Cardinals lineup. Iván Herrera anchors the 2025 column at .330/.455/.660 (124 PA), with a 2026 follow-through of .243 AVG and .797 OPS across 178 PA. Alec Burleson's 2026 numbers against left-handers -- .209/.244/.304 across 168 PA -- sit well below his 2025 sample (127 PA, .271/.310/.398). Nathan Church (14 PA) and Jimmy Crooks (8 PA) are too small to treat as reliable standalone references. JJ Wetherholt and Bryan Torres have no qualifying 2025 sample in this section and do not appear in the table.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). The 2026 column never leads in this section -- 2025 vs-hand always leads, regardless of 2026 sample size.

Trea Turner's 2025 line against left-handed pitching — .323/.376/.460 across 205 PA — is the strongest right-handed split in the Phillies' active pool. Edmundo Sosa (.318/.362/.533, 116 PA) and Alec Bohm (.295/.351/.467, 134 PA) provide additional right-handed leverage against the TBD Cardinals starter. Kyle Schwarber (.252/.366/.598, 276 PA) is the left-handed bat with the deepest LHP sample; his 2026 follow-through (.268 AVG, .916 OPS, 200 PA) shows continued production from the same-hand disadvantage position. Brandon Marsh has the most challenging 2025 left-handed split in the table: .197/.287/.289 across 88 PA against left-handed pitchers.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Jesús Luzardo's platoon gap is pronounced and consistent. Right-handed hitters have posted a .723 OPS against him this season (466 BF), while left-handed hitters are at .392 OPS (155 BF). The 2025 split ran in the same direction: .699 OPS against right-handed bats (585 PA) and .514 OPS against left-handed bats (173 PA). Tonight's Cardinals lineup carries four right-handed bats — Iván Herrera, Jordan Walker, Joshua Báez, and Blaze Jordan — against whom Luzardo has been more hittable across both seasons.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Jesús Luzardo is pitching at Citizens Bank Park tonight — his home venue — where his 2026 ERA is 4.63 across 72 innings. His away ERA this season is 1.95 across 78.1 innings, a gap of more than two runs. The 2025 split showed the same direction: 3.87 at home versus 2.98 away. All Cardinals game action tonight lands on the home side of that ledger.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Jesús Luzardo has pitched into a third pass in 24 of 25 starts. Survivor-selection caveat: Jesús Luzardo's third-pass numbers come only from the games he was left in -- his better second passes. In the 24 starts he pitched into a third pass, hitters posted a .783 OPS on the second pass -- 216 PA. From the third pass on in those same starts: .704 OPS -- 169 PA. Pooled within-game delta, third pass and beyond minus second pass, survival starts only: -.079 OPS. Early hooks: 1 starts, 9 PA. Per-pass rate stats resting on fewer than 50 PA render as their PA count, never as a decimal; 2026 companion columns carry their own 60 BF floor (below floor renders SSS).

Luzardo's first time through the order has been dominant this season: .413 OPS across 227 batters faced. The second time through the order is where Cardinals hitters gain the most ground — a .831 OPS across 225 batters faced, the largest pass-to-pass jump in the table. That difference from first to second pass is the most actionable split for tonight.

The third-pass row shows a lower OPS (.699) than the second pass, but the caveat above is essential: Luzardo has pitched into a third pass in 24 of 25 starts. Those are the starts where he was sharp enough to be left in — his better second passes. In those same 24 starts, hitters posted a .783 OPS on the second pass and .704 OPS on the third pass (within-game delta: -.079 OPS). The pre-rendered note explains this further.

The 2025 splits were substantially flatter: .683 OPS (first time through, 290 PA), .672 OPS (second time through, 285 PA), .586 OPS (third time through, 183 PA). The 2026 first-pass suppression and second-pass exposure gap is a current-season pattern.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

Kyle Leahy has stranded 62.1% of 29 inherited runners this season, below the league average of 68.8%. Riley O'Brien has stranded 70.0% of 10 inherited runners — above the league average in the closer role. Gordon Graceffo has stranded 54.5% of 11 inherited runners, the lowest mark among Cardinals relievers with a meaningful sample, and warrants attention in high-leverage situations with baserunners already aboard. Michael McGreevy's 100% strand rate (3 inherited runners) comes from a very small sample as a starting pitcher.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)

Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- PHI

Jesús Luzardo generated a 43.3% ground ball rate across 466 batted balls in 2025. Among Phillies hitters, Alec Bohm (52.0% GB%) and Trea Turner (50.1% GB%) are the most likely to put balls on the ground against him. Turner's .321 average on ground balls in 2025 is the strongest in the table; Kyle Schwarber's .186 groundball average reflects his fly-ball-heavy profile, which aligns less naturally with Luzardo's ground-ball tendency. Luis Arraez makes contact at a high rate (.231 GB AVG) but has the lowest fly-ball upside (.066 FB average) — a contact-first profile that tends to survive against ground-ball pitchers without generating extra bases.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

No data available for this section.

No battery pairing history is available for tonight's Cardinals starter.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Philadelphia baserunning (2025): Trea Turner is the primary threat — 36 stolen bases against 7 caught stealing (83.7% success rate). Bryson Stott (24 SB, 5 CS, 82.8%), Bryce Harper (12 SB, 2 CS, 85.7%), and Kyle Schwarber (10 SB, 2 CS, 83.3%) are the next tier. Luis Arraez (11 SB, 4 CS, 73.3%) is active but at a lower success rate. Brandon Marsh (7 SB, 1 CS, 87.5%) and Derek Hill (7 SB, 0 CS, 100.0%) represent speed in the bottom of the Phillies' order. Alec Bohm has 2 stolen bases with 0 caught stealing. Edmundo Sosa has 1 SB and 1 CS (50.0%).

Cardinals catchers — throwing: Pedro Pagés has caught 17 of 54 base stealers this season, a 31.5% caught-stealing rate across 466.2 innings and 53 starts. Jimmy Crooks, the projected starter tonight, has 14 stolen bases allowed and 1 caught stealing across 15 attempts this season; his caught-stealing rate is not published — 15 attempts falls below the 20-attempt minimum.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Jordan Walker has played 108 games at right field this season (.981 Fld%, 4 errors). Nathan Church is the projected center fielder tonight and has appeared in 18 games at that position (1.000 Fld%); he has also played right field (7 G, .833 Fld%) and left field (5 G, 1.000 Fld%) this season. Alec Burleson's 50 games at first base (.990 Fld%) represent his primary position; he has also appeared in left field (41 G, 1.000 Fld%) and right field (34 G, .983 Fld%). Jimmy Crooks has 14 games behind the plate (1.000 Fld%). Iván Herrera has 14 games at catcher (.989 Fld%, 1 error) and 4 games in left field (1.000 Fld%).

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

No park factor data is available in tonight's payload for Citizens Bank Park.

Cardinals vs. Phillies — recent history (2022–2025):

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Against a pitcher with a 29.8% K% this season (league average: 22.1%), contact becomes the premium. Alec Burleson's 2025 K% of 14.5% is the most contact-friendly profile in the projected lineup. Iván Herrera (18.7% K%, 9.6% BB%) profiles as balanced, near league averages. Jordan Walker's 31.8% K% in 2025 reflects significant strikeout exposure; his 2026 K% has improved to 24.1% across 535 PA. Jimmy Crooks' 37.0% K% with a 0.0% BB% in 2025 is the most vulnerable profile in the order against a pitcher who misses bats at Luzardo's rate.

Phillies

Luis Arraez's 3.1% K% in 2025 is the lowest in the table by a wide margin (league average: 22.1%) — a contact profile that makes him difficult to put away regardless of stuff. Kyle Schwarber pairs a high 27.2% K% with a 14.9% BB% (league average: 8.9%), the highest walk rate in the Phillies' data, reflecting a patient power approach. Derek Hill's 32.2% K% is the highest in the table and the greatest strikeout risk in the Phillies' projected lineup. Trea Turner (16.7% K%, 6.7% BB%) and Bryce Harper (20.9% K%, 12.1% BB%) profile as the Phillies' more balanced options at the plate.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Against Luzardo's 43.3% ground ball rate, Cardinals hitters with higher ground ball rates will see more infield-contact outcomes. Iván Herrera's 52.6% GB% (285 BIP in 2025) is the highest in the projected lineup, suggesting frequent grounders into Luzardo's strength. Nathan Church's 67.6% GB% (37 BIP) is even higher, though the sample is small. Alec Burleson (42.0% GB%) and Jordan Walker (48.9%) sit near Luzardo's ground ball rate and represent more mixed-outcome profiles.

Phillies

Without a Cardinals starter announced, batted ball context is most useful for identifying who hits more fly balls or line drives. Kyle Schwarber's 39.9% GB rate is among the lower rates in the table, reflecting his fly-ball power approach. Brandon Marsh's 30.0% line drive rate in 2025 is the highest in the Phillies' section, and Derek Hill's 35.0% line drive rate stands out as well. Trea Turner hits 24.8% line drives and 25.1% fly balls — a balanced profile. Alec Bohm (52.0% GB%) and Trea Turner (50.1% GB%) are the most likely ground-ball producers among Phillies hitters if the TBD Cardinals starter is also a ground-ball type.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

Jesús Luzardo's 2025 K% of 28.5% is well above the league average of 22.1%; his 7.5% BB% is below the 8.9% league average, producing a 3.79 K/BB ratio across 183.2 innings. His 2026 K%/BB% — 29.8% and 7.4% respectively — tracks in the same direction. Against a pitcher who misses bats at this rate, Cardinals hitters with high strikeout rates face added risk: Jimmy Crooks (37.0% K% in 2025), Jordan Walker (31.8%, improved to 24.1% in 2026), and Nathan Church (27.7%) are the most exposed profiles in the projected lineup.

KEY MATCHUPS

Iván Herrera vs. Jesús Luzardo: Batting second, Herrera is the Cardinals' most structurally favorable right-handed bat against a left-handed starter. His 2025 line against left-handed pitching — .330/.455/.660 across 124 plate appearances — is the strongest historical reference in the projected lineup. Career against Luzardo, the sample is 5 PA (.250/.400/.500) — too small to lead with. His 2026 OPS vs LHP is .797 across 178 plate appearances. The platoon data leads tonight.

Jordan Walker vs. Jesús Luzardo: Walker has 8 career plate appearances against Luzardo (.250/.250/.250, 2 K, 0 BB) — a sample without standalone predictive weight. His 2026 performance against left-handed pitching (.288 AVG, .918 OPS across 144 PA) is the more actionable reference. At right field, Walker hit his 26th home run yesterday afternoon and carries one of the highest 2026 vs-LHP splits in the projected order.

The left-handed bats and Luzardo's dominance vs same-hand hitters: Alec Burleson, JJ Wetherholt, Nathan Church, Bryan Torres, and Jimmy Crooks all step in against a pitcher who has held left-handed hitters to a .392 OPS this season (155 BF). Burleson's 2026 vs-LHP line -- .209/.244/.304 across 168 PA -- sits well below his 2025 anchor of .271/.310/.398 (127 PA). Nathan Church has posted a .490 OPS over his last 130 plate appearances since July 4 — tonight's platoon matchup is the most difficult assignment in the projected order.

The second time through the order: The Cardinals' best opportunity tonight may come the second time through the lineup. Luzardo's second-pass OPS this season is .831 across 225 batters faced — a .418-point jump from his first-pass .413 OPS. When the right-handed bats — Herrera, Walker, Báez, and Jordan — get their second looks, direct attention there.

Phillies right-handed bats vs. TBD Cardinals lefty: With the Cardinals' starter throwing left (per the data's default for platoon-split queries), Trea Turner (.323/.376/.460, 205 PA vs LHP in 2025; .217 AVG, .623 OPS across 177 PA in 2026), Edmundo Sosa (.318/.362/.533, 116 PA; .247 AVG, .693 OPS across 110 PA in 2026), and Alec Bohm (.295/.351/.467, 134 PA; .261 AVG, .762 OPS across 144 PA in 2026) represent the Phillies' three best-positioned right-handed threats by 2025 platoon data — though Turner and Sosa are both well below those baselines this season. Turner's 36 stolen bases in 2025 add a baserunning dimension once he reaches base.

WATCHLIST

The second-pass exposure window: Luzardo's first time through the order has suppressed Cardinals hitters to a .413 OPS this season. The second time through (.831 OPS) is when the lineup turns over and the four right-handed bats get their best cracks. Pay attention around the third or fourth inning when the order flips.

Iván Herrera's at-bats: Batting second, Herrera sees Luzardo in the heart of each pass. His 2025 vs-LHP line (.330/.455/.660) is the best historical reference in tonight's projected lineup. He works counts — 9.6% BB% in 2025, 11.0% in 2026 — which increases his chances of extending at-bats as pitch counts rise.

Luzardo's home ERA context: Tonight is a home start for Luzardo, where his 2026 ERA is 4.63 compared to 1.95 on the road. That gap has been consistent across the last two seasons. No park factor data is in tonight's payload to attribute the split further, but the home/away trend is real.

The Cardinals' bullpen after yesterday afternoon: George Soriano allowed 4 ER in 0.2 IP in Thursday's game at Cincinnati. Peter Strzelecki worked 2 clean innings and Riley O'Brien finished the game. Watch how manager Oliver Marmol pieces together the bullpen if the Cardinals carry a lead into the late innings, particularly Soriano's availability after yesterday's outing.

Nathan Church's at-bats: Church's .490 OPS since July 4 (130 PA) meets Luzardo's .392 OPS against left-handed hitters this season. The two trends converging in the same at-bat represent the sharpest structural disadvantage in tonight's projected lineup for the Cardinals.

Trea Turner's baserunning: Turner had 36 stolen bases in 2025 at an 83.7% success rate. Tonight's projected Cardinals catcher is Jimmy Crooks, who has 14 stolen bases allowed and 1 caught stealing (15 attempts) this season; his caught-stealing rate is not published — he has not reached the 20-attempt floor. Turner is the Phillies' most active baserunning threat.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

Luzardo platoon split: vs RHB — .723 OPS (2026, 466 BF) / .699 OPS (2025, 585 PA); vs LHB — .392 OPS (2026, 155 BF) / .514 OPS (2025, 173 PA).

Cardinals RHBs tonight (platoon advantage vs Luzardo): Iván Herrera (DH), Jordan Walker (RF), Joshua Báez (LF), Blaze Jordan (3B).

Best RHB vs LHP references: Walker — .288 AVG, .918 OPS (2026, 144 PA vs LHP); Herrera — .330/.455/.660 (2025, 124 PA vs LHP), .797 OPS (2026, 178 PA).

Luzardo TTO (2026): First time through — .413 OPS (227 BF); second time through — .831 OPS (225 BF); third time through — .699 OPS (170 BF, survivorship caveat; within-game delta -.079 OPS). Pitched into a third pass in 24 of 25 starts.

Luzardo home/away (2026): Home — 4.63 ERA (72 IP); away — 1.95 ERA (78.1 IP). Tonight is a home start at Citizens Bank Park.

Cardinals catchers — stolen base (2026): Crooks (tonight's starter) — 14 SB allowed, 1 CS, 15 attempts; rate not published (under 20-attempt floor). Pagés — 37 SB allowed, 17 CS, 54 attempts, 31.5% CS rate.

PHI baserunning threats (2025): Turner — 36 SB, 7 CS, 83.7%. Stott — 24 SB, 5 CS, 82.8%. Harper — 12 SB, 2 CS, 85.7%. Schwarber — 10 SB, 2 CS, 83.3%.

Luzardo K%/BB% (2025): 28.5% K / 7.5% BB / 3.79 K/BB (183.2 IP). League avg: 22.1% K / 8.9% BB.

Cardinals strikeout risk vs Luzardo (2025): Crooks — 37.0% K%; Walker — 31.8% K% (improved to 24.1% in 2026); Church — 27.7% K%.

Cardinals vs. Phillies recent history: 2025: 4-2; 2024: 2-4; 2023: 1-5; 2022: 3-4.

PHI injuries: Caleb Kilian (15-day IL, oblique, since Aug 10); Felix Reyes (60-day IL, wrist fracture, transferred Aug 20).