YESTERDAY

Kyle Leahy turned in five shutout innings with six strikeouts last night at Great American Ball Park, carrying the Cardinals to a 3–0 win and a 2–1 series lead. Four relievers — Stanek, Graceffo, Soriano, and O'Brien — each worked a scoreless inning behind him.

Masyn Winn went 3-for-4 with a solo homer in the fifth and scored again in the seventh on José Fermín's RBI double. Báez added a sacrifice fly in the eighth, scoring Jordan Walker to push the final to 3–0.

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

STARTING PITCHERS

Matthew Liberatore (L, 5-10, 5.07 ERA, 119.0 IP, 24 GS) faces a Reds lineup that has had limited prior exposure — Ke'Bryan Hayes' 20 career plate appearances against him (.222 average, .300 OBP) represent the largest sample in tonight's Cincinnati order. Liberatore holds right-handed batters to a .265 average and .730 OPS in 2025 (515 PA), though his 2026 right-handed-batter numbers have climbed to a .280 average and .790 OPS (393 batters faced). He pitches away from Busch Stadium tonight, where his 2026 road ERA of 4.98 (59.2 IP) provides the relevant split context.

Chase Burns (R, 14-2, 2.47 ERA, 131.0 IP, 23 GS) enters tonight as one of the most formidable individual assignments the Cardinals will face this season. His 1.98 ERA at Great American Ball Park in 2026 (68.1 IP) is lower than his already-strong 3.02 ERA on the road (62.2 IP). Burns held opposing batters to a 35.6% strikeout rate in 2025 with a 4.19 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and the Cardinals carry a combined three career plate appearances against him — making tonight effectively a first encounter for the entire lineup.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Yesterday's lineup from 2026-08-18)

Handedness: 7 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Báez, Jordan, Winn, Fermín, Pagés), 2 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson).

Reds (Yesterday's lineup from 2026-08-18)

Handedness: 6 RHB (Stewart, Suárez, Stephenson, Myers, McLain, Hayes), 2 LHB (Bleday, Rodríguez), 1 SHB (Cruz).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Reds

Hunter Greene -- 2026-08-02: Cincinnati Reds placed RHP Hunter Greene on the 15-day injured list retroactive to August 2, 2026. Right elbow soreness.

Blake Dunn -- 2026-08-06: Cincinnati Reds transferred CF Blake Dunn from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Right elbow sprain.

Hunter Greene -- 2026-08-11: Cincinnati Reds transferred RHP Hunter Greene from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Right elbow soreness.

Nick Lodolo -- 2026-08-11: Cincinnati Reds activated LHP Nick Lodolo from the 15-day injured list.

The Cardinals carry no active injured-list entries into tonight's game.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

Small sample: Iván Herrera (1 PA), Jordan Walker (1 PA), Alec Burleson (1 PA).

Three Cardinals have any career history against Burns — Iván Herrera (1 PA, 0-for-1), Jordan Walker (1 PA, 0-for-1, 1 K), and Alec Burleson (1 PA, walk) — and none constitutes a meaningful sample. Tonight is effectively a first encounter for the entire Cardinals lineup.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Small sample: Tyler Stephenson (4 PA), Eugenio Suárez (5 PA), Matt McLain (4 PA), Sal Stewart (3 PA), Dane Myers (3 PA), JJ Bleday (1 PA).

Ke'Bryan Hayes leads the Reds with 20 career plate appearances against Liberatore, posting a .222 average, .300 OBP, and .278 slugging (4-for-18, 1 BB, 3 K). Eugenio Suárez (5 PA, 0-for-4, 1 BB, 2 K) and Tyler Stephenson (4 PA, 0-for-4, 3 K) are hitless in their looks. Sal Stewart's home run in 3 at-bats is a small-sample outlier. The broader Reds lineup has limited prior history with Liberatore on a career basis.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). The 2026 column never leads in this section -- 2025 vs-hand always leads, regardless of 2026 sample size.

2026 to date: Alec Burleson is the Cardinals' most productive right-hand matchup against Burns' hand, posting a .329 average and .990 OPS in 368 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season. Jordan Walker has reversed his historical right-handed-pitcher gap sharply, producing a .289 average and .821 OPS in 383 plate appearances in 2026. Iván Herrera (.247, .730 OPS, 387 PA) and Masyn Winn (.222, .601 OPS, 357 PA) show more modest current-season results against righties.

2025 baseline: Burleson's .296 average and .478 slugging against right-handed pitching (419 PA) established the lineup's clearest directional edge entering tonight. Walker's 2025 mark of .200 average in 289 plate appearances against righties contrasts sharply with his 2026 turnaround — the most significant single-player platoon reversal in the Cardinals order against this matchup.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). The 2026 column never leads in this section -- 2025 vs-hand always leads, regardless of 2026 sample size.

2026 to date: Dane Myers posts the strongest production against left-handed pitching among Reds regulars in 2026, with a .275 average and .829 OPS (93 PA). JJ Bleday (.200, .696 OPS, 98 PA) and Eugenio Suárez (.181, .669 OPS, 82 PA) have been more limited, though Bleday's walk rate has climbed to 14.0% in 2026 (407 PA). Sal Stewart has shown a .278 average and .872 OPS against lefties in 2026 (126 PA), giving him meaningful current-season value in this matchup.

2025 baseline: Bleday's .324 average and .500 slugging against left-handed pitching (73 PA) is the strongest individual historical mark in the Reds order against Liberatore's hand. Myers (.286, .419 SLG, 117 PA) and Tyler Stephenson (.246, .443 SLG, 74 PA) are the next-most-relevant samples in this group.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Burns held right-handed batters to a .189 average and .500 OPS in 2026 (189 BF) — his strongest platoon side — and left-handed batters to a .213 average and .676 OPS (337 BF). Both marks improve on his 2025 splits: he allowed a .259 average and .845 OPS against left-handers (98 PA) and a .221 average and .582 OPS against right-handers (90 PA) in 2025. The Cardinals' seven right-handed starters tonight enter into Burns' stronger platoon side.

Liberatore is marginally more effective against right-handed batters in 2025 (.265 AVG, .730 OPS, 515 PA) than against left-handers (.274, .758 OPS, 133 PA), but the gap is narrow. His 2026 numbers have moved against him on both sides: right-handers post a .280 average and .790 OPS (393 BF), while left-handers post a .301 average and .887 OPS (126 BF).

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Burns' home ERA of 1.98 in 2026 (68.1 IP at Great American Ball Park) is the defining feature of tonight's venue context — he is meaningfully better at home than on the road (3.02 ERA, 62.2 IP away). His 2025 splits followed the same direction: 3.86 ERA at home, 4.84 away.

Liberatore pitches away tonight. His 2026 road ERA of 4.98 (59.2 IP) is marginally better than his 5.16 home ERA (59.1 IP), a reversal of his 2025 pattern (4.03 away, 3.69 home). The split advantage available in some road contexts is not present for the Cardinals' starter tonight.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Burns has been most dominant in his first time through the order in 2026, holding opponents to a .505 OPS (208 BF). The second time through rose to .583 OPS (207 BF), and the third time has reached .858 OPS (111 BF) — a meaningful escalation that gives Cardinals hitters a window in later innings if they can survive the early frames. His 2025 pattern was less linear: .624 OPS the first time, an outlier .990 OPS the second time, and .519 the third.

Liberatore's 2026 numbers show vulnerability escalating through the order, peaking at a 1.057 OPS in the third time through (92 BF). His 2025 marks were better at each pass — TTO1 .657, TTO2 .871, TTO3 .641 — and the 2026 inversion at the third-look level is the most significant management signal for the Cardinals' staff as Liberatore's pitch count climbs.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

The Cardinals' four primary relievers behind Liberatore range from a 54.5% to 100.0% inherited-runner strand rate in 2025. Gordon Graceffo (54.5%, 11 IR) is the most vulnerable of the group historically, while Michael McGreevy (100.0%, 3 IR) and Riley O'Brien (70.0%, 10 IR) have been the most effective at stranding runners. Kyle Leahy (62.1%, 29 IR) is below the MLB average of 68.8% on inherited runners despite his 3.24 ERA in 122.1 innings in 2026.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)

Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- CIN

Liberatore's 2025 groundball rate of 39.1% (463 BIP) is one of the heavier ground-ball profiles in today's matchup. The Reds bring a right-handed group whose line drives are their primary value engine — Tyler Stephenson (.733 LD avg, 2025), Dane Myers (.702), and Matt McLain (.662) have done their best work when they keep the ball on a line. Eugenio Suárez's 41.4% fly-ball frequency (343 BIP, 2025) and .077 batting average on fly balls suggests he elevates at a cost in batting average even as he generates power on those balls.

Burns' 37.0% groundball rate (100 BIP, 2025) reflects a relatively balanced contact profile. Iván Herrera (52.6% GB, 285 BIP) and Jordan Walker (48.9% GB, 231 BIP) are among the Cardinals' most ground-ball oriented hitters — their tendencies align with Burns' profile toward generating grounders rather than elevating the ball.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

Pedro Pagés starts behind the plate tonight, entering with a 15-game sample catching Liberatore this season in which the Cardinals posted a 3.93 ERA (75.2 IP). Yohel Pozo, who also appears in the table, caught Liberatore earlier in 2026 and is not on the Cardinals' current active roster; his 12-game, 63.2-inning entry (4.10 ERA) reflects that prior work. Jimmy Crooks is the active reserve catcher on the roster (2G, 11.0 IP, 2.45 ERA with Liberatore).

Pagés' 31.5% caught-stealing rate on 54 attempts is the active catcher mark entering tonight — relevant against a Cincinnati lineup that features McLain (18 SB, 90.0%), Myers (18 SB, 78.3%), and Hayes (12 SB, 80.0%) as its primary baserunning threats.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

CIN Baserunners (2026)

Catcher Throwing (2026)

Cincinnati presents three primary baserunning threats: Matt McLain (18 SB, 90.0% success rate), Dane Myers (18 SB, 78.3%), and Ke'Bryan Hayes (12 SB, 80.0%). McLain's 90.0% stolen-base success rate is the benchmark — he has converted at the highest clip of the three. Pedro Pagés counters with a 31.5% caught-stealing rate on 54 attempts. Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati's catcher tonight, is at 18.0% on 100 attempts — below the level that typically deters baserunning attempts.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Masyn Winn at shortstop enters with 129 defensive games and a .994 fielding percentage, the most extensive single-position data point in the Cardinals' defensive profile. Jordan Walker (108G, .981 Fld%) at right field and Alec Burleson (50G, .990 Fld%) at first base anchor the corners with substantial 2025 samples. José Fermín, who has appeared at second base in 15 games at 1.000 fielding percentage, provides the cleanest recent historical reference for the keystone position in tonight's defensive alignment.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Head-to-Head (Last Four Seasons)

St. Louis leads the current five-game series 2–1 after three games in Cincinnati, with two remaining. The Cardinals have won the season series against the Reds three of the last four years — including a 7-6 edge in 2025 and a 12-7 advantage in 2022. The 2024 season was the lone exception, when Cincinnati held a 7-6 advantage in the year's series.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Jordan Walker's 2025 strikeout rate of 31.8% (396 PA) against all pitching is the highest among Cardinals regulars, though his 2026 rate has moderated to 23.8% (525 PA) alongside his overall production increase. Facing Burns' 35.6% strikeout rate tonight, Pedro Pagés' 4.9% walk rate (2025, 389 PA) — the lowest among Cardinals listed — is the sharpest plate discipline gap in the lineup. José Fermín's 14.3% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate (2025, 70 PA) represent the most contact-oriented profile in the group against Burns' swing-and-miss profile.

Reds

Tyler Stephenson's 33.9% strikeout rate (2025, 342 PA) leads the Cincinnati lineup, followed by Eugenio Suárez (29.8%, 657 PA) and Matt McLain (28.9%, 577 PA). Against Liberatore's 18.8% strikeout rate and below-average swing-and-miss profile, the Reds' strikeout-prone middle of the order carries the most exposure to an early exit without doing damage. JJ Bleday's 10.5% walk rate (2025, 344 PA) is the most patient plate approach in Cincinnati's order, with his 2026 mark climbing further to 14.0% (407 PA).

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Iván Herrera (52.6% GB, 285 BIP) and Jordan Walker (48.9% GB, 231 BIP) are the Cardinals' most groundball-oriented regulars among tonight's starters — tendencies that intersect with Burns' 2025 groundball rate of 37.0% more than they clash with it. Alec Burleson (42.0% GB) and Masyn Winn (39.6% GB) show the most balanced contact distribution among Cardinals in this table.

Reds

Eugenio Suárez leads the Reds with a 41.4% fly-ball rate (343 BIP in 2025), the highest in this group — a tendency that pairs with his power profile against left-handed pitching but also with his .077 batting average on fly balls (from Section 2G). Ke'Bryan Hayes' 49.5% groundball rate (410 BIP) makes him the most ground-ball oriented bat in Cincinnati's lineup, consistent with his .246 groundball average and limited air-ball production in 2025.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

Burns' 35.6% strikeout rate in 2025 is well above the league average of 22.1%, paired with a 4.19 strikeout-to-walk ratio that reflects sharp command as well as swing-and-miss. Liberatore's 18.8% strikeout rate is below league average, and his 3.05 strikeout-to-walk ratio indicates workable but not dominant command — the Reds' three highest-strikeout hitters (Stephenson 33.9%, Suárez 29.8%, McLain 28.9%) could become favorable opportunities if Liberatore generates weak contact early in counts.

KEY MATCHUPS

The dominant story tonight is Chase Burns, and what the Cardinals have — and don't have — to work with against him. Burns enters 14-2 with a 2.47 ERA, and his 1.98 ERA at Great American Ball Park in 2026 (68.1 innings) makes home starts the most dangerous version of him. The Cardinals carry three combined career plate appearances against Burns. Tonight functions as a first encounter for every starter in the lineup.

Burns' 2026 platoon split sets the frame for how the lineup projects: he held right-handed batters to a .189 average and .500 OPS (189 BF) and left-handers to a .213 average and .676 OPS (337 BF). Seven of the nine Cardinals starters bat right-handed — the larger and more vulnerable group. Alec Burleson and JJ Wetherholt, the two left-handed bats, enter as the more historically favorable matchup based on Burns' 2025 left-handed numbers (.845 OPS), though his 2026 suppression of left-handers has been nearly as sharp.

Against Liberatore, the key individual advantage belongs to JJ Bleday: his .324 average and .500 slugging against left-handed pitching in 2025 (73 PA) is the strongest hitter-versus-handedness edge in tonight's game. Dane Myers (.286, .419 SLG vs. LHP, 117 PA) and Sal Stewart (.278 avg, .872 OPS vs. LHP in 2026, 126 PA) are the secondary targets in the Reds order. The Cardinals' starter will need to work through a right-handed lineup that includes the most aggressive base-stealing trio he'll face this series — McLain (18 SB, 90.0%), Myers (18 SB, 78.3%), and Hayes (12 SB, 80.0%).

The third lever is what Pedro Pagés does with that running game. His 31.5% caught-stealing rate on 54 attempts gives the Cardinals an active arm behind the plate, though McLain's 90.0% stolen-base success rate makes him the primary test. The game's defining throughline: a Cardinals lineup without answers on paper against a pitcher without a weakness on paper — and a Reds offense that will look to put pressure on Liberatore with speed early, against a Cardinals bullpen pacing at 469.0 innings and the most franchise-record exposure in the modern era.

WATCHLIST

Riley O'Brien — saves milestone: O'Brien is eight saves from the 40-save mark with 35 games remaining. His current 41-save pace keeps that milestone within reach through the final stretch of 2026.

André Pallante — wins milestone: Pallante needs three more wins to reach 15 on the season, a mark that would represent the upper range of achievable win totals for a Cardinals starter in a full year.

Nathan Church — extended slump: Church has posted a .481 OPS since July 4 (124 plate appearances), a sharp drop from his .726 OPS before that date. The gap has persisted across more than a month of action and remains an open question for his role in the lineup's final six weeks.

Hunter Dobbins — recent form: Dobbins has posted a 2.06 ERA over his last four starts, a significant reversal from his earlier season struggles. The sustained improvement over a defined window is the most notable recent development in the Cardinals' rotation depth entering the stretch.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

Burns season: 14-2, 2.47 ERA, 131.0 IP, 151 K, 46 BB, 1.09 WHIP, 23 GS
Burns at home (2026): 1.98 ERA, 68.1 IP
Burns vs. RHB (2026): .189 AVG, .500 OPS, 189 BF
Burns vs. LHB (2026): .213 AVG, .676 OPS, 337 BF
Burns K%/BB% (2025): 35.6% K / 8.5% BB, 4.19 K/BB
Cardinals career PA vs. Burns: 3 total — Iván Herrera 1 PA (0-for-1), Jordan Walker 1 PA (0-for-1, 1 K), Alec Burleson 1 PA (walk)

Liberatore season: 5-10, 5.07 ERA, 119.0 IP, 116 K, 44 BB, 1.48 WHIP, 24 GS
Liberatore away (2026): 4.98 ERA, 59.2 IP
Liberatore vs. RHB (2026): .280 AVG, .790 OPS, 393 BF
Liberatore vs. LHB (2026): .301 AVG, .887 OPS, 126 BF
Liberatore K%/BB% (2025): 18.8% K / 6.2% BB, 3.05 K/BB

Tonight's battery: Pagés (C) — 31.5% CS rate, 54 attempts (2026)
CIN catcher: Stephenson — 18.0% CS rate, 100 attempts (2026)
CIN base threats: McLain 18 SB (90.0%), Myers 18 SB (78.3%), Hayes 12 SB (80.0%)

Reds BvP leaders vs. Liberatore: Hayes 20 PA (.222/.300/.278, 4-for-18); Stewart 3 PA (1 HR); McLain 4 PA (.250)
Cardinals BvP vs. Burns: Herrera 1 PA (0-for-1), Walker 1 PA (0-for-1, 1 K), Burleson 1 PA (walk)

Trend Watch: Bullpen pace 598.3 IP (franchise record: 584.3, 2021) | Errors pace 68.9 (franchise low: 66, 2019) | Fld% .988 (franchise high: .989, 2019)
Series: STL leads 2-1 (Game 4 of 5 at Cincinnati)
Standings: STL 65-62, 3rd NL Central, 13.5 GB, 3.0 WC GB (5th wild card)

TREND WATCH

The Cardinals' bullpen has now worked 469.0 innings this season — a pace of 598.3 for a full year, which would break the franchise record of 584.3 set by the 2021 club. The workload has spread across a full roster of arms, and the pace is entering territory no Cardinals bullpen has reached in the modern era.

On defense, two related markers are tracking in parallel. Through 127 games, the Cardinals have committed 54 errors — a pace of 68.9 for the season against the franchise record for fewest of 66, set by the 2019 Cardinals. Their .988 fielding percentage sits one tick below the franchise record of .989, also from 2019.

The bullpen's historic volume connects directly to the rotation's recent output: the starting rotation has posted a 0.2 quality-start rate over the last 15 games, a sharp drop from 0.384 before that stretch. The relief corps' workload is in part a downstream consequence of the rotation's inconsistency — a tension that tonight's matchup with Liberatore carries forward.