NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

NL WEST STANDINGS

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

STARTING PITCHERS

Andre Pallante (R) -- STL
2026 to date: 10-6, 3.96 ERA, 100.0 IP, 72 K, 29 BB, 1.26 WHIP, 18 GS, 60.7% GB, 17.0% K%, 6.9% BB%. Pallante has been STL's most dependable rotation arm this first half, posting his best ERA in the role. His identity is ground-ball contact management -- 60.7% GB rate in 2026 is among the game's higher marks. Today he starts as the road team at Chase Field. His 2025 away ERA of 4.89 (84.2 IP, 375 BF) was meaningfully better than his 2025 home ERA of 5.42 (78.0 IP, 340 BF), so this road context is not unfavorable by his historical splits.

Eduardo Rodriguez (L) -- ARI
2026 to date: 8-3, 2.29 ERA, 114.0 IP, 79 K, 39 BB, 1.17 WHIP, 19 GS, 46.8% GB, 17.1% K%, 8.4% BB%. Rodriguez has been one of the better NL starters in the first half. He throws from the left side against a Cardinals lineup that projects 6 LHBs and 3 RHBs today. His 2025 baseline K/BB ratio of 2.38 (from 154.1 IP, 694 BF) reflects a pitcher who generates swings and misses at a rate Pallante does not approach. Rodriguez pitches at home today; his 2025 home and away ERAs (4.73 and 4.61 respectively) are nearly flat -- Chase Field does not function as a meaningful home-park advantage in his 2025 data.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-07-18)

Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).

Diamondbacks (Projected from 2026-07-18)

Handedness: 6 RHB (Moreno, McCann, Gurriel, Arenado, Waldschmidt, Tawa), 2 LHB (Carroll, Kepler), 4 SHB (Perdomo, Vargas, Barrosa, Marte).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster-move data is available for today in our scouting report. Both lineups are projected from July 18 and may change before first pitch at Chase Field. Monitor pre-game availability for any late scratches in either lineup pool. Both teams' active-roster data was fetched from the StatsAPI successfully at report generation time (Cardinals: 26 players, Diamondbacks: 26 players).

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

No data available for this section.

No career BvP history exists between any Cardinals roster member and Eduardo Rodriguez in our career sample -- the Cardinals face him without individual historical reference points. With 0 rows returned, this matchup is a pure profile bet. The analytical approach shifts entirely to Rodriguez's aggregate splits: his weaker context is vs RHBs (.281 AVG, .825 OPS, 543 PA in 2025), making the Cardinals' 3 right-handed bats (Iván Herrera, Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn) the primary targeting lever today.

Bench note: No career BvP data for any Cardinals roster member against Rodriguez in our career sample. Blaze Jordan (bench, R, 3B) also carries no historical data. The absence of BvP history makes Rodriguez's platoon tendencies and TTO patterns the only available scouting levers for today's game.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Small sample: Geraldo Perdomo (7 PA), Max Kepler (6 PA), Corbin Carroll (7 PA), Ketel Marte (3 PA), Ildemaro Vargas (2 PA), James McCann (1 PA), Gabriel Moreno (1 PA).

Every BvP sample here is small -- the largest is 7 PA (Perdomo, Carroll). No player clears the 10 PA threshold for a danger-bat callout. Corbin Carroll's .400/.571 line in 7 PA is the most notable entry -- 2 hits and 2 walks in 5 at-bats signals consistent on-base ability against Pallante, even if the sample is too small to anchor firm conclusions. Perdomo's .333/.429 in 7 PA adds a second credible data point for ARI's on-base threats at the top of the projected order. Ketel Marte is 0-for-3 in 3 PA -- discardable at this sample size.

Bench note: Ryan Waldschmidt, Jorge Barrosa, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Tim Tawa have no BvP history against Pallante in our career sample. All will face Pallante today without individual historical reference. Nolan Arenado also has no BvP row in our career sample -- his matchup with Pallante is entirely profile-based.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

Rodriguez (LHP) creates a structural platoon disadvantage for 6 of the projected 9 Cardinals starters. Iván Herrera (R) stands apart from the field: .330/.455/.660 across 124 PA vs LHP in 2025 -- a premier reverse-platoon bat who neutralizes the lefty-on-lefty penalty entirely. Alec Burleson (L) holds a respectable .271/.310/.398 line vs LHP across 127 PA -- serviceable contact with modest power. Lars Nootbaar (L) is the sharpest concern in this table: .201/.291/.289 across 180 PA vs LHP is a sustained same-handed weakness backed by the table's largest sample. The 47 strikeouts in 180 PA add to the exposure.

JJ Wetherholt and Nolan Gorman do not appear in the 2025 vs-LHP sample -- both carry no Retrosheet IDs on file, so split data could not be retrieved. Nathan Church's .417/.417/.500 line in 14 PA and Jimmy Crooks' .250/.250/.625 in 8 PA are too small to weight reliably.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

Pallante (RHP) faces Arizona's projected mix: 6 RHB, 2 LHB, and 4 SHB. Pallante's platoon profile is essentially flat (.266 vs LHBs, .275 vs RHBs in career 2025 data), so handedness is not the primary lever today. The analytical focus is individual quality within the pool. Geraldo Perdomo (.267/.378/.451, 501 PA vs RHP) and Ketel Marte (.286/.375/.516, 373 PA) are the most dangerous consistent contact threats. Corbin Carroll (.267/.354/.575, 443 PA, 24 HR) adds a power-and-speed dimension at the top of the projected pool.

Jorge Barrosa (.125/.121/.156 in 33 PA vs RHP) and Tim Tawa (.169/.262/.355 in 143 PA) are the softest spots in this table. Nolan Arenado (.217/.272/.368 in 324 PA) is also below his historical offensive profile against right-handed pitching. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. does not appear in the 2025 vs-RHP sample -- no Retrosheet data on file for him.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Pallante's 2025 platoon profile is essentially flat: .266 AVG and .763 OPS vs LHBs (347 PA), versus .275 AVG and .774 OPS vs RHBs (368 PA) -- negligible separation across 715 career PA. He does not rely on platoon advantage. Today's ARI pool (6 RHB, 4 SHB, 2 LHB) offers no structural matchup edge against him; individual quality within that pool is what matters.

Rodriguez's 2025 profile shows a more notable gap. His vs-RHB line (.281 AVG, .825 OPS, 543 PA) carries the larger sample and the higher OPS. His vs-LHB line (.303 AVG, .812 OPS, 151 PA) is a smaller sample -- just 28% as many PA. The Cardinals' 3 RHBs (Iván Herrera, Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn) face his weaker split by OPS. Herrera's personal vs-LHP history (.330/.455/.660 in 124 PA) is the real edge, not the pitcher's marginal platoon gap alone.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Today's game is at Chase Field -- Pallante is pitching away. His 2025 away ERA of 4.89 (84.2 IP, 375 BF) was better than his home ERA of 5.42 (78.0 IP, 340 BF), making today's road context an above-average setting by his own 2025 baseline. The sample sizes are substantial and the gap is meaningful -- Pallante has historically been more effective on the road than at Busch Stadium in this data.

Rodriguez is pitching at home today. His 2025 home and away ERAs are nearly identical -- 4.73 at home (72.1 IP) versus 4.61 away (82.0 IP). Chase Field does not function as a clear home-park advantage for Rodriguez personally based on this 2025 data. The Cardinals face him in what amounts to a neutral home-park context.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Pallante's 2025 TTO data shows a pronounced second-pass vulnerability. His second pass through the order (TTO2): .309 AVG, .487 SLG, .868 OPS across 270 PA -- a substantial climb from his first-pass line (.266 AVG, .720 OPS). His third pass (TTO3) improves again to .217 AVG and .691 OPS -- suggesting a mid-game fatigue window rather than a simple arc of decline. Innings 4 through 6 represent ARI's clearest offensive opportunity if Pallante remains in the game at that point.

Rodriguez's 2025 TTO pattern runs opposite. His first pass through the order (TTO1) is his worst: .315 AVG, .523 SLG, .886 OPS across 262 PA. He improves in the second pass (.296 AVG, .819 OPS) and improves further in the third (.224 AVG, .727 OPS). The Cardinals must score today in the first three innings -- letting Rodriguez work through the order without damage makes the offensive path back increasingly narrow in the later frames.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

League average strand rate: approximately 68-72%. Only Riley O'Brien (70.0%, 10 IR) meets that benchmark among Cardinals relievers in this data. Kyle Leahy (62.1%, 29 IR) is the highest-volume arm and sits below league average -- he has logged the most inherited-runner situations on this staff. Matt Svanson (50.0%, 26 IR) and Gordon Graceffo (54.5%, 11 IR) are the most concerning entries; both sit well below the league floor with significant IR volume. Michael McGreevy (100.0%, 3 IR) posts a perfect strand rate but on a sample too small to rely on.

The Cardinals' inherited-runner profile represents a bullpen risk flag. If Pallante exits today with runners on base, the data suggests those runners carry a meaningful probability of scoring -- particularly if Svanson or Graceffo enters the game.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- ARI

Pallante's 2025 ground-ball rate of 61.2% (515 BIP) is an elite mark. The ARI lineup's career ground-ball averages are moderate -- Gabriel Moreno (.326 GB AVG) and Corbin Carroll (.250 GB AVG) make the most contact on grounders. The real damage mechanism against Pallante is the line drive: every ARI hitter in this table posted a line-drive AVG of .500 or higher, with Ketel Marte (.702), Geraldo Perdomo (.684), and Carroll (.681) converting line drives at exceptional rates. When ARI squares balls up, they make contact count -- Pallante's path to limiting damage is keeping the ball on the ground, not elevating into the ARI lineup's line-drive damage zone.

Rodriguez's 2025 profile (38.8% GB, 31.7% FB, 27.6% LD) is more balanced. He does not create the same ground-ball-heavy contact environment as Pallante. The Cardinals' 2025 batted ball profiles (Section 2M below) provide the cross-reference for how STL hitters make contact against a left-handed pitcher with a balanced batted-ball distribution.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

Pallante's most experienced battery partner in this sample is Pedro Pagés (15 G, 76.1 IP, 4.60 ERA), who remains on the active roster. Yohel Pozo (8 G, 37.2 IP) is not on the current active roster -- that data reflects a prior stint with the Cardinals; the 6.93 ERA in that context represents the weakest partnership in the table. Today's projected catcher is Jimmy Crooks (from the projected lineup at position C), who has 5 games and 23.1 IP with Pallante at a 4.24 ERA -- the best ERA of any catcher in this data.

The Pallante-Crooks pairing is developing. Five games of shared reps is a limited partnership compared to the 15 Pagés has logged. The signal here is not a weakness -- 4.24 ERA in that sample is encouraging -- but this is still an early-stage battery relationship entering a decisive series game. Look for early-inning count management and pitch sequence calibration, particularly given the baserunning threat Carroll and Perdomo pose.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

ARI's projected roster pool contains multiple active stolen-base threats against today's battery (Pallante/Crooks). Key threats from the 2025 baserunning data:

Corbin Carroll: 32 SB, 6 CS, 84.2% success rate -- the most dangerous baserunner in ARI's projected pool. Carroll combines plate patience (.571 OBP vs Pallante in the career BvP sample) with exceptional speed; expect aggressive running if he reaches base today.

Geraldo Perdomo: 27 SB, 6 CS, 81.8% success rate -- nearly as active as Carroll and nearly as efficient. Perdomo is ARI's other elite baserunning threat at 81.8% success across 33 attempts. Together, Carroll and Perdomo represent the top two baserunning threats in the projected pool.

Tim Tawa: 8 SB, 2 CS, 80.0% success rate -- efficient at a lower volume. Ketel Marte: 4 SB, 2 CS, 66.7% success rate -- below the threshold where aggressive running is typically advisable. Nolan Arenado: 3 SB, 0 CS, 100% success rate (3 attempts only -- he picks his spots carefully). Max Kepler: 3 SB, 0 CS, 100% success rate (similarly limited attempts). Gabriel Moreno: 2 SB, 2 CS, 50.0% success rate -- not a baserunning threat.

The Pallante-Crooks battery has 5 games of shared reps. Pop-time calibration matters most against Carroll (84.2% success rate) and Perdomo (81.8% success rate), the two most active baserunners in ARI's projected pool today.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Masyn Winn's 2025 fielding sample at shortstop (129 G, 64 DP, 3 E, .994 fld%) is among the elite marks at the position -- confirmed as today's SS from the projected lineup. Lars Nootbaar at LF (107 G, 0 E, 1.000 fld%) provides an errorless outfield anchor, also confirmed from the lineup. Nathan Church starts at CF today (confirmed from lineup); his 2025 CF sample shows 18 G, 0 E, 1.000 fld% -- clean in limited appearances.

Alec Burleson starts at 1B today (confirmed from lineup), where his 2025 sample shows 50 G, 27 DP, 4 E, .990 fld%. His multi-position history (also LF and RF) reflects roster versatility, but the 1B assignment matches today's lineup card. Jimmy Crooks' 2025 catching sample (14 G, 0 E, 1.000 fld%) is confirmed as today's starting catcher per the projected lineup.

JJ Wetherholt (2B today) and Nolan Gorman (3B today) do not appear in the 2025 defensive data -- neither has a Retrosheet ID on file, so no fielding statistics could be retrieved for them. Their defensive alignment at 2B and 3B is noted from the projected lineup but cannot be assessed from available data. Iván Herrera is listed today as DH -- not a fielding position; his 2025 catching data (14 G at C, .989 fld%) reflects a prior role this season.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Recent head-to-head: Cardinals vs Arizona went 3-3 in both 2025 and 2024, and 3-3 again in 2023. The series has been remarkably balanced across recent seasons; the Cardinals' most decisive run was 5-2 in 2022. This current series -- tied 1-1 heading into today's decisive Game 3 -- continues that pattern of competitive equilibrium between these clubs. No numeric park factor data is available in our current sample for Chase Field; treat ballpark context as neutral-to-hitter-leaning for today's matchup based on the venue's general profile. The head-to-head records suggest neither team has dominated at this venue in recent seasons.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Jordan Walker (2025 K%: 31.8%) and Jimmy Crooks (37.0% K%) are the highest strikeout-rate bats in the Cardinals' projected lineup today -- both well above the 22.1% league average. Nathan Church (27.7% K%) is a similar concern in a smaller sample (65 PA). Against Rodriguez's 2025 K% of 20.6% and K/BB ratio of 2.38, STL's swing-and-miss bats represent a meaningful vulnerability, particularly at the bottom of the order where Church and Crooks project. Alec Burleson (14.5% K%) and Iván Herrera (18.7% K%) are the cleanest contact profiles in the lineup.

Diamondbacks

Geraldo Perdomo leads Arizona with the best plate discipline profile in the pool: 2025 K% 11.5%, BB% 13.1% -- the most patient bat the projected lineup pool contains against Pallante (RHP). Ketel Marte (14.9% K%, 11.5% BB%) is the other high-contact, high-walk option. Nolan Arenado (11.2% K%, 6.4% BB%) makes contact but rarely walks -- a low-strikeout profile that still clears the league-average contact bar.

Jorge Barrosa (28.6% K%, 2.6% BB%) and Tim Tawa (28.4% K%) are swing-heavy profiles that play into Pallante's contact-generation approach. James McCann (24.1% K%, 5.8% BB%) and Ildemaro Vargas (1.7% BB%) round out the weaker discipline entries in the ARI pool.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Rodriguez's 2025 GB rate (38.8%) is balanced -- he is not a ground-ball pitcher in the same mold as Pallante. Nathan Church (2025 GB%: 67.6%) and Iván Herrera (52.6%) are the most ground-ball-heavy bats in the Cardinals' projected lineup -- both hit contact right into a range where Rodriguez's neutral profile distributes outs across all ball types. Jordan Walker (48.9% GB%) and Alec Burleson (42.0% GB%) are similarly ground-ball-leaning. Jimmy Crooks stands out with a 44.4% fly-ball rate in a small sample (27 BIP) -- a power-contact tendency that sets him apart from the rest of the order.

Diamondbacks

Pallante's 2025 GB rate of 61.2% creates a natural collision with ARI's several ground-ball-leaning hitters. Ildemaro Vargas (2025 GB%: 60.4%), Tim Tawa (53.5%), James McCann (51.8%), and Ketel Marte (44.6%) all bring elevated ground-ball rates that play into Pallante's contact-generation model. When these hitters put the ball in play, they produce grounders at rates where Pallante's infield defense -- anchored by Winn at SS and Burleson at 1B -- can generate outs.

The line drive is the real damage mechanism for ARI against Pallante. Ketel Marte (.702 LD AVG, career), Geraldo Perdomo (.684), and Corbin Carroll (.681) all convert line drives into hits at exceptional rates. Nolan Arenado's line-drive AVG of .560 adds to the threat. Pallante's path to limiting damage is keeping the ball on the ground -- allowing the ARI lineup to elevate into the line-drive zone creates the risk profile where this matchup turns.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

2026 to date: Pallante 3.96 ERA, 17.0% K%, 6.9% BB%. 2025 baseline: 15.5% K%, 8.7% BB%, 1.79 K/BB ratio (162.2 IP, 715 BF). Pallante's 1.79 K/BB ratio reflects a contact-management approach -- he generates outs through ground balls and defensive conversion rather than strikeouts. His 2025 BB% of 8.7% is the walk rate to monitor; against a patient ARI pool featuring Perdomo (13.1% BB%) and Marte (11.5% BB%), free passes carry cost.

2026 to date: Rodriguez 2.29 ERA, 17.1% K%, 8.4% BB%. 2025 baseline: 20.6% K%, 8.6% BB%, 2.38 K/BB ratio (154.1 IP, 694 BF). Rodriguez's 2025 K/BB ratio of 2.38 is meaningfully stronger than Pallante's 1.79, reflecting a swing-and-miss profile that does not rely on defense the same way. His 2026 and 2025 K% and BB% are closely aligned, indicating a consistent and sustainable approach. Against a Cardinals lineup with three high-K-rate bats at the bottom (Walker 31.8%, Church 27.7%, Crooks 37.0%), Rodriguez's strikeout ability matters acutely today.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Iván Herrera vs Eduardo Rodriguez. The Cardinals' best individual matchup today. Herrera bats right -- Rodriguez's weaker 2025 split (.281 AVG, .825 OPS vs RHBs, 543 PA). Herrera's own 2025 line vs LHP is .330/.455/.660 across 124 PA with 9 HR -- the lineup's top weapon against a southpaw. No career BvP data is available in our sample, so this is a pure profile bet. Herrera's 2025 K% of 18.7% and BB% of 9.6% add discipline quality to the threat. His 2025 GB% of 52.6% means his hard contact tends toward grounders and line drives rather than fly balls -- look for line-drive extra-base hits as the damage mechanism.

Corbin Carroll vs Andre Pallante. Carroll is 2-for-5 (.400 AVG, .571 OBP) in the career BvP sample against Pallante -- 2 hits and 2 walks in 7 PA. His 2025 line vs RHP: .267 AVG, .354 OBP, .575 SLG across 443 PA. He is also ARI's top baserunner at 84.2% stolen base success rate (32 SB, 6 CS). Against the developing Pallante-Crooks battery (5 games together), Carroll can apply pressure at the plate and on the bases simultaneously. His 2025 BB% of 10.4% ensures he reaches at a high clip even when not squaring balls up.

Ketel Marte vs Andre Pallante. Marte is 0-for-3 in 3 career PA vs Pallante -- discardable at this sample size. His 2025 vs-RHP line (.286 AVG, .375 OBP, .516 SLG, 373 PA) makes him a legitimate middle-order threat. Pallante's neutral platoon profile (.266 vs LHBs, .275 vs RHBs) means no structural edge in this matchup -- execution and count management decide it. Marte's 2025 line-drive AVG of .702 (career) is the individual ceiling to watch if Pallante leaves pitches elevated.

Rodriguez's first pass through the order (TTO1 urgency). Rodriguez's 2025 TTO1 is his worst pass: .315 AVG, .523 SLG, .886 OPS in 262 PA. The Cardinals must put runs on the board in the first three innings today. His TTO2 line (.296 AVG, .819 OPS) and TTO3 line (.224 AVG, .727 OPS) improve significantly -- the path back gets narrower with each pass Rodriguez completes cleanly.

Cardinals bullpen strand-rate exposure. If Pallante exits with runners on base today, the relief picture carries concrete risk. Matt Svanson (2025: 50.0% strand rate, 26 IR) and Gordon Graceffo (54.5%, 11 IR) both sit well below the league average of approximately 68-72%. Riley O'Brien leads the tracked group at 70.0% strand rate (10 IR) -- the bullpen's strongest inherited-runner bet. The choice of reliever in transition situations today will carry significant game-state consequence.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Iván Herrera performed against Eduardo Rodriguez in their career?

2. How has Corbin Carroll fared against Andre Pallante in their career?

3. How has Geraldo Perdomo performed against Andre Pallante in their career?

4. What are Andre Pallante's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Iván Herrera's splits vs left-handed pitching in 2025?

6. How often does Kyle Leahy strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Chase Field in 2025?