NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 62-37 | - | W3 |
| Cubs | 56-43 | 6.0 | W2 |
| Cardinals | 51-47 | 10.5 | L2 |
| Pirates | 52-48 | 10.5 | W1 |
| Reds | 45-53 | 16.5 | W1 |
AL WEST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | 50-49 | - | L1 |
| Mariners | 50-50 | 0.5 | W2 |
| Astros | 47-54 | 4.0 | L4 |
| Athletics | 42-57 | 8.0 | L1 |
| Angels | 39-61 | 11.5 | W1 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19 | ARI | Away | L 7-8 (10) |
| Jul 18 | ARI | Away | L 3-5 |
| Jul 17 | ARI | Away | W 5-4 |
| Jul 12 | ATL | Home | L 3-4 |
| Jul 11 | ATL | Home | W 4-1 |
| Jul 10 | ATL | Home | W 2-1 |
| Jul 9 | MIL | Home | L 4-8 |
| Jul 8 | MIL | Home | W 5-1 |
| Jul 7 (G1) | MIL | Home | L 3-4 |
| Jul 7 (G2) | MIL | Home | L 2-10 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Kyle Leahy (R, 7-4). 3.73 ERA, 89.1 IP, 75 K, 33 BB, 1.41 WHIP through 18 starts in 2026. Ground-ball oriented (51.4% GB in 2026). His 2025 K/BB ratio was 2.86 (22.0% K, 7.7% BB per 363 BFP). Road context is his strength: 2025 away ERA of 2.68 (43.2 IP, 46 K, 13 BB) vs 4.47 at home (44.1 IP). Tonight he pitches away at Angel Stadium -- his favorable split.
José Soriano (R, 8-6). 3.49 ERA, 111.0 IP, 115 K, 53 BB, 1.29 WHIP through 20 starts in 2026. Extreme ground-ball profile -- 66.2% GB in 2025 (476 BIP). His 2025 K/BB was 1.95 (21.0% K, 10.8% BB per 724 BFP). Home context is a significant liability: 2025 home ERA of 5.54 (76.1 IP, 41 BB, 82 K) vs 2.43 away (92.2 IP). Tonight he starts at Angel Stadium -- his weaker split.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-07-19)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .317 | .874 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .224 | .703 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .345 | .917 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .336 | 1.099 |
| 5 | Nootbaar | LF | L | .182 | .757 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .241 | .659 |
| 7 | Crooks | C | L | .308 | .972 |
| 8 | Gorman | 3B | L | -- | -- |
| 9 | Church | CF | L | .234 | .650 |
Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).
Angels (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Guzman | 3B | R |
| Adell | RF | R |
| Soler | DH | R |
| Siri | CF | R |
| Lowe | LF | L |
| O'Hoppe | C | R |
| Trout | CF | R |
| Schanuel | 1B | L |
| Peraza | 2B | R |
| Heineman | C | S |
| Grissom | 2B | R |
| Meckler | LF | L |
| Neto | SS | R |
Handedness: 9 RHB (Guzman, Adell, Soler, Siri, O'Hoppe, Trout, Peraza, Grissom, Neto), 3 LHB (Lowe, Schanuel, Meckler), 1 SHB (Heineman).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury or roster-move data is available for today. Cardinals lineup is projected from 2026-07-19. Gorman appears in the Cardinals' projected lineup at 3B but is not on today's active roster per available scouting data -- his inclusion reflects the prior-day projection. JJ Wetherholt has no retro_id on file; no 2025 historical depth data is available for him. Angels are using a 13-player active roster pool with no confirmed game-day lineup.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iván Herrera | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 3 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .333 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Masyn Winn | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Small sample: Iván Herrera (2 PA), Lars Nootbaar (3 PA), Masyn Winn (2 PA).
The career BvP sample is almost entirely noise. Masyn Winn's 1-for-1 with a walk is eye-catching but carries no predictive weight at 2 PA. Herrera and Nootbaar are 0-for in their small career looks at Soriano. The Cardinals' primary starters -- Wetherholt, Burleson, Walker, Gorman, Crooks, Church -- have no career BvP history against Soriano in the available sample. Tonight is a profile and platoon game, not a history game.
Bench note: No bench BvP history against Soriano in the career BvP sample (Pagés, Velázquez, Fermín, Torres, Jordan -- no rows).
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jo Adell | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nolan Schanuel | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jorge Soler | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Lowe | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Neto | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Trout | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan O'Hoppe | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Small sample: Jo Adell (2 PA), Nolan Schanuel (2 PA), Jorge Soler (1 PA), Josh Lowe (1 PA), Zach Neto (1 PA), Mike Trout (1 PA), Logan O'Hoppe (1 PA).
Equally thin. Seven Angels have faced Leahy in the career BvP sample (combined 10 PA), with no hits across all 10 AB. The .000 line is a small-sample artifact, not a real pattern. Denzer Guzman, Jose Siri, Oswald Peraza, Tyler Heineman, Vaughn Grissom, and Wade Meckler have no career BvP history vs Leahy at all. The Angels approach Leahy without meaningful historical context.
Bench note: No bench BvP history against Leahy in the career BvP sample for any Angels bench player in the available roster.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Lars Nootbaar L | 403 | .249 | .340 | .394 | 10 | 47 | 72 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Iván Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Nathan Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| Jimmy Crooks L | 38 | .108 | .132 | .162 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
Strong platoon edge for the LHBs. Burleson (.296/.353/.478, 419 PA) leads the group against right-handed pitching and is the Cardinals' most reliable offensive threat against Soriano tonight. Nootbaar (.249/.340/.394) and Iván Herrera (.268/.343/.399) are solid contributors. Soriano allowed .233 AVG and .338 SLG to LHBs in 2025 -- meaningfully below his .268/.371 against RHBs. With 6 LHBs in the projected lineup, the platoon structure strongly favors the Cardinals' offensive side.
Jordan Walker (.200/.263/.291 vs RHP, 289 PA) is the lineup's most exposed split at the 4-hole -- he faces Soriano's better side. Church (.114/.216/.182 in 51 PA) and Crooks (.108/.132/.162 in 38 PA) are thin matchups at the bottom of the order, though both samples are small. JJ Wetherholt and Gorman have no 2025 vs RHP sample on file.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jo Adell R | 469 | .227 | .281 | .463 | 30 | 23 | 127 |
| Mike Trout R | 451 | .235 | .369 | .456 | 23 | 74 | 139 |
| Zach Neto R | 444 | .264 | .326 | .468 | 19 | 26 | 114 |
| Nolan Schanuel L | 439 | .262 | .350 | .395 | 10 | 46 | 57 |
| Logan O'Hoppe R | 371 | .203 | .246 | .358 | 15 | 19 | 120 |
| Josh Lowe L | 310 | .242 | .307 | .420 | 10 | 25 | 70 |
| Jorge Soler R | 264 | .215 | .293 | .386 | 10 | 23 | 79 |
| Oswald Peraza R | 183 | .190 | .247 | .298 | 5 | 11 | 51 |
| Tyler Heineman B | 124 | .245 | .325 | .358 | 2 | 9 | 25 |
| Denzer Guzman R | 35 | .235 | .257 | .441 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| Jose Siri R | 23 | .053 | .217 | .105 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
Leahy (RHP) faces a roster pool with 9 RHBs, 3 LHBs, and 1 SHB. His 2025 line against RHBs was .238/.270/.319 (.589 OPS) -- the favorable split. Neto (.264/.326/.468, 19 HR in 444 PA vs RHP) is the most complete offensive threat in the pool. Adell shows 30 HR despite a .227 AVG -- a power bat with contact issues (127 K). Trout is highly patient (.369 OBP, 74 BB) but strikeout-prone (139 K in 451 PA). O'Hoppe (.203/.246/.358) and Peraza (.190/.247/.298) are the weakest regulars vs RHP and the best targets for Leahy to work through quickly.
Nolan Schanuel (L, .262/.350/.395 in 439 PA) is the lone LHB expected to start -- he represents Leahy's marginally tougher platoon side (.252/.337/.364 vs LHBs in 2025), but the sample is small and Schanuel is more contact-oriented than power-based.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | vs LHB | 163 | .252 | .337 | .364 | .701 | 3 | 37 |
| Kyle Leahy | vs RHB | 200 | .238 | .270 | .319 | .589 | 2 | 43 |
| José Soriano | vs LHB | 395 | .233 | .328 | .338 | .666 | 7 | 76 |
| José Soriano | vs RHB | 329 | .268 | .344 | .371 | .715 | 5 | 76 |
Leahy's RHB line (.238/.270/.319, .589 OPS) is clearly better than his LHB line (.252/.337/.364, .701 OPS). Tonight's Angels pool is 9 RHBs -- the favorable alignment for Leahy. He limits both power and walks much better against right-handed batters.
Soriano's 2025 LHB allowed line (.233/.328/.338, .666 OPS) is meaningfully better than his RHB line (.268/.344/.371, .715 OPS). The Cardinals' 6 LHBs face the better side of Soriano's platoon split. While .666 OPS is still manageable, the gap between his LHB and RHB numbers is real -- the Cardinals' lineup construction creates the matchup advantage.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | Away | 173 | 43.2 | 2.68 | 46 | 13 | 2 |
| Kyle Leahy | Home | 190 | 44.1 | 4.47 | 34 | 15 | 3 |
| José Soriano | Away | 381 | 92.2 | 2.43 | 70 | 37 | 4 |
| José Soriano | Home | 343 | 76.1 | 5.54 | 82 | 41 | 8 |
Tonight's context inverts the typical home-field advantage: Kyle Leahy pitches away at Angel Stadium -- where his 2025 ERA was 2.68 (43.2 IP, 13 BB, 2 HR) -- while José Soriano pitches at home, where his 2025 ERA was 5.54 (76.1 IP, 41 BB, 8 HR). Leahy's road split is substantially stronger than his home split (4.47 ERA). Soriano's home split is the most significant analytical factor in tonight's matchup -- it's not a quirk of a small sample (76.1 IP at home in 2025). The Cardinals are operating in the favorable position: their pitcher's road ERA applies, their opponent's pitcher's home ERA applies.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | TTO1 | 355 | .247 | .341 | .645 | 5 | 76 | 28 |
| Kyle Leahy | TTO2 | 8 | .125 | .250 | .375 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| José Soriano | TTO1 | 279 | .228 | .307 | .634 | 3 | 66 | 32 |
| José Soriano | TTO2 | 269 | .252 | .349 | .682 | 4 | 55 | 28 |
| José Soriano | TTO3 | 176 | .277 | .432 | .783 | 5 | 31 | 18 |
Leahy has only 8 PA in the TTO2 bucket in 2025 -- he typically exits before completing a second full pass through the order. His operative window is TTO1: .247 AVG / .341 SLG / .645 OPS across 355 PA. The Angels should treat the first pass through the order as their primary scoring window; once Leahy exits, the Cardinals' bullpen strand-rate profile (see 2F) changes the dynamic.
Soriano's 2025 TTO pattern shows escalating risk with each pass: first pass through the order (.228 AVG / .307 SLG / .634 OPS, 279 PA) -> second pass (.252 / .349 / .682, 269 PA) -> third pass (.277 / .432 / .783, 176 PA, 5 HR). The third-pass-through-the-order line is the most dangerous window for the Cardinals to attack. If they can sustain pressure and reach Soriano in the late innings, his .783 OPS allowed in the third pass is a real opportunity.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate: approximately 68-72%. Riley O'Brien (CL, 70.0% strand, 10 IR) is the only Cardinals reliever at or above that threshold in a meaningful sample. McGreevy's 100% strand rate covers just 3 IR -- too small to weight heavily. Leahy himself (62.1%, 29 IR) strands below the league average when he inherits baserunners.
Svanson (50.0%, 26 IR) and Graceffo (54.5%, 11 IR) are significant liabilities if they enter with runners on base. If Leahy exits in trouble and Svanson or Graceffo takes over, the inherited-runner conversion risk is substantial. O'Brien is the preferred arm in high-leverage situations with runners on -- the bullpen sequencing tonight will matter.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 249 | 44.2% | 26.9% | 27.7% |
| José Soriano | 476 | 66.2% | 11.8% | 20.6% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- LAA
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jo Adell | .224 | .573 | .071 |
| Denzer Guzman | .429 | .667 | .125 |
| Tyler Heineman | .477 | .565 | .093 |
| Josh Lowe | .212 | .519 | .094 |
| Zach Neto | .270 | .690 | .081 |
| Logan O'Hoppe | .228 | .612 | .048 |
| Oswald Peraza | .174 | .600 | .049 |
| Nolan Schanuel | .237 | .566 | .088 |
| Jose Siri | .000 | 1.000 | .091 |
| Jorge Soler | .256 | .600 | .059 |
| Mike Trout | .316 | .597 | .039 |
Soriano's 66.2% GB rate in 2025 (476 BIP) is an extreme ground-ball profile -- among the most ground-ball-oriented in the game. The Cardinals' lineup features several ground-ball-prone hitters: Iván Herrera (52.6% GB in 2025, 285 BIP), Walker (48.9%), and Church (67.6% in a small 37 BIP sample). Against Soriano, Cardinals' contact will predominantly stay on the ground -- the key is whether they can elevate enough to avoid the double play and move runners.
Leahy's 44.2% GB rate (249 BIP) is moderate. Against the Angels' lineup, his best ground-ball match is Peraza (54.8% GB tendency, 157 BIP) and Lowe (48.4%, 273 BIP). Angels' hitters universally post high line-drive AVG when they do make line-drive contact (Neto .690, Schanuel .566, Trout .597) -- Leahy needs to keep the ball off the barrel, as his 27.7% LD allowed rate creates risk when line drives occur.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 43 | 62.0 | 3.05 | .225 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 13 | 16.0 | 2.25 | .259 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 4 | 6.1 | 8.53 | .346 | -- | -- |
| Iván Herrera | 4 | 3.0 | 6.00 | .308 | -- | -- |
The battery data reflects Leahy's 2025 career sample. Pedro Pagés leads with 43 games (62.0 IP, 3.05 ERA, .225 AVG allowed) -- the most established pairing. Yohel Pozo appears with 13 games and a 2.25 ERA but is not on tonight's active roster; his data reflects a prior partnership and does not reflect tonight's context.
Tonight's scheduled catcher is Jimmy Crooks (projected lineup: C, batting 7th). His 4 games with Leahy represent the battery pairing with the least established sample -- 6.1 IP, 8.53 ERA. That ERA is too small a sample to project from meaningfully, but the key scouting signal here is familiarity: this is a fresh battery with minimal shared game experience. Pagés is on the active roster but does not appear in tonight's projected lineup. With the Angels running actively (Neto 26 SB, Lowe 18 SB, Peraza 9-for-9), a Crooks-Leahy battery working on limited shared reps will face running challenges from early innings.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Zach Neto leads the Angels' active roster with 26 SB and 9 CS (74.3% success rate). Josh Lowe adds 18 SB and 4 CS (81.8%). Oswald Peraza is 9-for-9 (100%). Nolan Schanuel has 5 SB at 83.3%; Jo Adell has 5 SB at 83.3%; Mike Trout is 2-for-2 (100%).
The Angels project to run aggressively tonight. The Crooks-Leahy battery is in only its 4th shared pairing in the 2025 sample -- pop-time calibration and sequencing will develop in real time. If the Angels get multiple baserunners early in any inning, expect stolen base attempts before Leahy and Crooks establish a working rhythm. Cardinals note: no Cardinals baserunning data appears in the available 2025 sample, reflecting the opponent-focused query scope for this section.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 107 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Lars Nootbaar | RF | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Jimmy Crooks | C | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Lars Nootbaar | CF | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.967 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Masyn Winn anchors the infield at SS with 129 games, 64 double plays, and 3 errors (.994 Fld%) -- elite range and reliability at a premium position. Lars Nootbaar in LF (107 G, 0 E, 1.000 Fld%) is the cleanest outfield glove in the sample. Nathan Church starts at CF tonight (per the projected lineup) -- his 18-game sample at CF shows 0 errors and 1.000 Fld%. Jimmy Crooks starts at C (14 G at catcher, 0 E, 1.000 Fld%).
Gorman starts at 3B per the projected lineup, but has no fielding sample in the available defensive data. Jordan Walker in RF (108 G, 4 E, .981 Fld%) is the one outfield position with a meaningful error count. Burleson's primary 2025 defensive sample is at 1B (50 G, .990 Fld%) -- he starts there tonight, consistent with his largest fielding sample.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Recent series history: Cardinals are 1-2 vs Angels in 2025, 2-1 in 2024, and 0-3 in 2023. Tonight opens a 3-game series at Angel Stadium. The Cardinals have gone 3-6 against the Angels over the last three seasons in the available head-to-head data.
Ballpark context: Angel Stadium has historically played as a pitcher-friendly to neutral venue. No numeric park factor is available in today's scouting data -- treat this as a neutral-to-pitcher-leaning context until the head-to-head sample builds out further.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar | 583 | 119 | 20.4% | 64 | 11.0% |
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 46 | 17 | 37.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
The Cardinals' contact profile splits sharply. Burleson (14.5% K, 544 PA) is the most reliable bat against a strikeout pitcher. Nootbaar (11.0% BB%) and Iván Herrera (9.6% BB%) lead the lineup in walk rate. The bottom third of the order is Soriano's best strikeout target: Walker (31.8% K), Crooks (37.0% K), and Church (27.7% K) represent three high-K at-bats clustered together. JJ Wetherholt and Gorman have no 2025 K%/BB% data on file.
Angels
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jo Adell | 570 | 151 | 26.5% | 33 | 5.8% |
| Nolan Schanuel | 564 | 71 | 12.6% | 59 | 10.5% |
| Mike Trout | 555 | 178 | 32.1% | 87 | 15.7% |
| Zach Neto | 554 | 149 | 26.9% | 33 | 6.0% |
| Logan O'Hoppe | 451 | 139 | 30.8% | 24 | 5.3% |
| Josh Lowe | 435 | 109 | 25.1% | 33 | 7.6% |
| Jorge Soler | 314 | 94 | 29.9% | 28 | 8.9% |
| Oswald Peraza | 264 | 80 | 30.3% | 17 | 6.4% |
| Tyler Heineman | 174 | 31 | 17.8% | 12 | 6.9% |
| Denzer Guzman | 43 | 22 | 51.2% | 1 | 2.3% |
| Jose Siri | 36 | 17 | 47.2% | 4 | 11.1% |
The Angels' lineup is one of the most strikeout-heavy profiles Leahy will face. Guzman (51.2% K, 43 PA) and Siri (47.2% K, 36 PA) are extreme but in tiny samples. The regulars with meaningful samples tell the real story: Trout (32.1% K, 555 PA), O'Hoppe (30.8% K, 451 PA), Peraza (30.3% K, 264 PA), and Soler (29.9% K, 314 PA) are all above 29%. Neto (26.9%, 554 PA) and Adell (26.5%, 570 PA) are above 25%. Leahy's 2025 K/BB ratio of 2.86 matches up well against this contact-limited roster.
The notable exception is Nolan Schanuel (12.6% K, 10.5% BB%, 564 PA) -- by far the most disciplined at-bat in the Angels' pool. He will work deep counts, take walks, and give Leahy the most trouble extending. Mike Trout's 15.7% BB% is the other patience outlier -- high-K but takes a lot of pitches. Both Schanuel and Trout require Leahy to make quality pitches to avoid free passes.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Lars Nootbaar | 376 | 39.1% | 35.4% | 25.5% |
| Iván Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 27 | 37.0% | 44.4% | 18.5% |
Soriano's 66.2% GB rate in 2025 meets a Cardinals lineup with substantial ground-ball tendencies. Iván Herrera (52.6% GB, 285 BIP), Walker (48.9%, 231 BIP), and Church (67.6% in a small 37 BIP sample) will produce heavy infield contact against Soriano's worm-killers. Burleson (42.0%), Winn (39.6%), and Nootbaar (39.1%) are more balanced but still lean ground-ball enough to feed Soriano's profile. JJ Wetherholt and Gorman have no 2025 batted ball data on file.
Angels
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Schanuel | 403 | 43.9% | 28.0% | 28.0% |
| Jo Adell | 338 | 42.3% | 33.4% | 24.3% |
| Zach Neto | 324 | 38.9% | 34.3% | 26.9% |
| Josh Lowe | 273 | 48.4% | 23.4% | 28.2% |
| Logan O'Hoppe | 265 | 43.0% | 31.7% | 25.3% |
| Mike Trout | 252 | 38.9% | 30.6% | 30.6% |
| Jorge Soler | 173 | 47.4% | 29.5% | 23.1% |
| Oswald Peraza | 157 | 54.8% | 26.1% | 19.1% |
| Tyler Heineman | 110 | 40.0% | 39.1% | 20.9% |
| Denzer Guzman | 18 | 38.9% | 44.4% | 16.7% |
| Jose Siri | 15 | 20.0% | 73.3% | 6.7% |
Leahy's 44.2% GB rate in 2025 meets a moderately diverse Angels pool. Peraza's 54.8% GB tendency (157 BIP) and Lowe's 48.4% (273 BIP) are the most ground-ball-oriented hitters likely in the starting lineup. Nolan Schanuel's 28.0% LD rate (403 BIP) combined with his .566 career line-drive AVG makes him the most consistent contact threat -- his value is in line drives, not ground balls. Siri (73.3% FB in a tiny 15 BIP sample) is a fly-ball outlier, though too small to rely on.
Trout (30.6% LD, 252 BIP) and Neto (26.9% LD, 324 BIP) are the most dangerous line-drive hitters Leahy will face, and both have shown the ability to hit for contact at a high rate when they do make contact (.597 LD AVG for Trout, .690 for Neto). Leahy should limit LD opportunities, which means keeping the ball down -- consistent with his ground-ball approach.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Soriano | 169.0 | 152 | 21.0% | 78 | 10.8% | 1.95 |
| Kyle Leahy | 88.0 | 80 | 22.0% | 28 | 7.7% | 2.86 |
José Soriano: 2026 to date: 24.7% K, 11.4% BB (115 K, 53 BB in 111.0 IP). 2025 baseline: 21.0% K, 10.8% BB, 1.95 K/BB ratio (724 BFP, 169.0 IP). His BB% is consistently elevated in both seasons -- a walk-issuing pitcher who induces ground balls. At home in 2025 (5.54 ERA), those walks convert to runs at a higher rate.
Kyle Leahy: 2026 to date: 19.3% K, 8.5% BB (75 K, 33 BB in 89.1 IP). 2025 baseline: 22.0% K, 7.7% BB, 2.86 K/BB ratio (363 BFP, 88.0 IP). Leahy's 2025 K/BB ratio of 2.86 -- higher than Soriano's 1.95 -- reflects his relative control advantage. His lower BB% is the stabilizer that allows his ground-ball approach to suppress scoring, particularly on the road (2.68 ERA in 2025).
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Burleson vs Soriano (LHB/RHP platoon). Burleson's .296/.353/.478 vs RHP in 2025 (419 PA) is the Cardinals' best offensive credential against a right-hander. Soriano allowed .233 AVG and .338 SLG to LHBs in 2025 -- a meaningful drop from his .268/.371 RHB line. Burleson batting third puts him in multi-PA contact with Soriano across the first and second pass through the order. No career BvP history exists between them, but the platoon structure is the operative factor.
Leahy vs Angels' contact-limited lineup. Eight of 13 Angels pool players carry K% above 25% in 2025. Trout (32.1%, 555 PA), O'Hoppe (30.8%, 451 PA), Peraza (30.3%, 264 PA), and Soler (29.9%, 314 PA) are the most strikeout-prone in meaningful samples. Leahy's 2025 K/BB ratio of 2.86 -- backed by a .238/.270/.319 line against RHBs -- creates genuine strikeout upside against an Angels lineup that makes light contact across most positions.
Soriano's third-pass-through-the-order window. Soriano's 2025 TTO3 line (.277 AVG / .432 SLG / .783 OPS, 176 PA) is a substantial step up from his first-pass (.228 / .307 / .634). If the Cardinals keep the game within reach into innings 7 and beyond, the third-pass-through-the-order window is the most actionable offensive opportunity of the night. The six LHBs face Soriano's better side in the early passes; patience early creates the late-game angle.
Angels' stolen base threat vs Crooks-Leahy. Zach Neto (26 SB, 74.3%), Josh Lowe (18 SB, 81.8%), and Oswald Peraza (9 SB, 100%) represent a genuine running game. The Crooks-Leahy battery has only 4 games together in the 2025 sample. An unfamiliar battery facing aggressive base runners will need to establish a timing understanding quickly, or the Angels will test Crooks' arm from the first baserunner on.
Walker's RHB exposure. Jordan Walker's .200/.263/.291 vs RHP in 2025 (289 PA) and 31.8% K rate make him the lineup's most exposed split against Soriano. Batting fourth, Walker faces Soriano's better side (Soriano allowed .268 to RHBs vs .233 to LHBs). An early 0-for-2 from Walker with strikeouts sets up a lineup-management decision and places more pressure on the LHBs around him to carry the offensive load.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Alec Burleson performed against José Soriano in their career?
2. How has Kyle Leahy fared against Mike Trout in their career?
3. How has Zach Neto performed against Riley O'Brien in their career?
4. What are José Soriano's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Lars Nootbaar's splits vs RHP in 2025?
6. How often does Riley O'Brien strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Angel Stadium in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025