NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Brewers60-37-W1
Cubs54-436.0L1
Cardinals51-458.5W1
Pirates50-4710.0W3
Reds44-5215.5W1

NL WEST STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Dodgers62-36-W1
D-backs49-4812.5L1
Padres48-4913.5L1
Giants42-5519.5W3
Rockies39-6023.5L3

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

DateOppH/AResult
Jul 17ARIAwayW 5-4
Jul 12ATLHomeL 3-4
Jul 11ATLHomeW 4-1
Jul 10ATLHomeW 2-1
Jul 9MILHomeL 4-8
Jul 8MILHomeW 5-1
Jul 7MILHomeL 3-4
Jul 7MILHomeL 2-10
Jul 6MILHomeL 3-4
Jul 5CHCAwayL 4-6

STARTING PITCHERS

Dustin May (R) -- STL

2026 to date: 5-6, 4.55 ERA, 93.0 IP, 1.26 WHIP, 89 K / 28 BB, 7 HR allowed. K% 22.9, BB% 7.2, GB% 48.3. Career vs LHB .261/.357/.495 (.852 OPS); vs RHB .256/.325/.386 (.711). Career TTO1 .652 OPS jumps to .878 in TTO2 and .882 in TTO3 -- the first pass is his strength, then risk climbs sharply.

Brandon Pfaadt (R) -- ARI

2026 to date: 3-1, 4.70 ERA, 53.2 IP, 1.32 WHIP, 41 K / 18 BB, 8 HR allowed. K% 17.7, BB% 7.8, GB% 55.2. Career vs LHB .268/.324/.451 (.775 OPS); vs RHB .291/.322/.489 (.811). Career TTO3 OPS spikes to .866 with 11 HR in 182 PA -- the third look is his exposed pass.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-07-17)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
1Wetherholt2BL.322.898
2HerreraDHR.216.696
3Burleson1BL.343.916
4WalkerRFR.3271.085
5NootbaarLFL.161.708
6WinnSSR.244.668
7CrooksCL.308.972
8Gorman3BL----
9ChurchCFL.244.678

Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).

Diamondbacks (Projected from 2026-07-17)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
NoneCarrollRFL.270.918
NoneMorenoCR.264.837
NonePerdomoSSS.174.582
NoneVargas1BS.286.819
NoneMcCannCR.4621.346
NoneBarrosaCFS.143.594
NoneMarte2BS.267.760
NoneGurrielLFR.200.579
NoneKeplerLFL.167.617
NoneArenado3BR.209.724
NoneWaldschmidtCFR.208.578
NoneTawaLFR.250.704

Handedness: 6 RHB (Moreno, McCann, Gurriel, Arenado, Waldschmidt, Tawa), 2 LHB (Carroll, Kepler), 4 SHB (Perdomo, Vargas, Barrosa, Marte).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster-move data is available for today's run beyond what is carried in the active roster tables above. José Fermín (2-for-4 yesterday) is on the active roster but not in the projected lineup; Pedro Pagés is the backup catcher behind Crooks. The Cardinals lineup is projected from 2026-07-17; the Diamondbacks card is a projected pool of 12 position players.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Lars Nootbaar992.222.222.556101
Masyn Winn1193.333.455.667123
Jordan Walker881.125.125.125001
Alec Burleson870.000.000.000001
Iván Herrera872.286.250.286005

Small sample: Lars Nootbaar (9 PA), Jordan Walker (8 PA), Alec Burleson (8 PA), Iván Herrera (8 PA).

Only Winn stands out with a positive line -- 3-for-9 with a HR and 2 BB in 11 PA, .333/.455/.667. Nootbaar's .556 SLG is one HR in a 9-PA look. Everyone else sits at .286 or below. Herrera's 5 K in 8 PA is the loudest negative signal in the sample and matches Pfaadt's out-pitch tendency vs RHB (.291 AVG allowed but .811 OPS suggests damage on contact).

Bench note: No career BvP rows for Wetherholt, Church, Crooks, Gorman, Pagés, Fermín, or the rest of the bench against Pfaadt. The lower half of the order is facing Pfaadt without history to lean on.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Corbin Carroll14133.231.286.538012
Ketel Marte13132.154.154.385103
Gabriel Moreno11113.273.273.273001
Geraldo Perdomo1191.111.273.111025
Nolan Arenado990.000.000.000001
Lourdes Gurriel660.000.000.000002
Tim Tawa541.250.400.250010

Small sample: Nolan Arenado (9 PA), Lourdes Gurriel (6 PA), Tim Tawa (5 PA).

Carroll is the standout danger -- 3-for-13 with a .538 SLG, no HR yet but the extra-base profile shows. Marte has one HR in 13 PA against May. Moreno's line drives (.273/.273/.273) are steady but not damaging. Perdomo has 5 K in 11 PA but has drawn 2 BB -- his career .273 OBP off May comes from patience, not contact. Arenado is 0-for-9 -- May has owned that matchup so far.

Bench note: Kepler, McCann, Vargas, Barrosa, and Waldschmidt have no career rows against May. The May matchup for most of the second half of the ARI lineup is a profile bet, not a history bet.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Alec Burleson L419.296.353.478153259
Lars Nootbaar L403.249.340.394104772
Masyn Winn R374.251.309.36872371
Iván Herrera R328.268.343.399102466
Jordan Walker R289.200.263.29142194
Nathan Church L51.114.216.1821314
Jimmy Crooks L38.108.132.1620015

Cardinals bring 6 LHB and 3 RHB against Pfaadt (RHP). Burleson's 2025 .296/.353/.478 vs RHP is the top of the group and lines up with a favorable platoon. Nootbaar's 2025 .249/.340/.394 vs RHP is above-average OBP with modest slug. Winn and Herrera each carry .340+ 2025 OBP vs RHP among the RHB. Walker is .200 vs RHP in 289 PA with 94 K -- the RHB with the worst 2025 platoon line, and Pfaadt is tougher on RHB (.291 AVG allowed, .811 OPS).

Church (.114 in 51 PA) and Crooks (.108 in 38 PA) are the two bottom-of-order LHB where the platoon works against them despite the L/R nominal advantage -- small samples but reinforcing.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Geraldo Perdomo B501.267.378.451146868
Corbin Carroll L443.267.354.5752450109
Max Kepler L410.214.303.401164378
Lourdes Gurriel R390.229.272.413141864
Ketel Marte B373.286.375.516194358
Nolan Arenado R324.217.272.368102042
Gabriel Moreno R232.287.353.44582142
Tim Tawa R143.169.262.35561540
James McCann R87.250.299.4384423
Ildemaro Vargas B69.277.294.385119
Jorge Barrosa B33.125.121.1560011

May is RHP. Arizona's projected pool has 2 LHB (Carroll, Kepler), 6 RHB, and 4 SHB -- and the SHB group hits from the left side vs May. Carroll's 2025 .267/.354/.575 vs RHP (24 HR in 443 PA) is the loudest slug line in the lineup and syncs with his career .538 SLG vs May. Perdomo's 2025 .378 OBP vs RHP in 501 PA (68 BB / 68 K) is the on-base engine. Marte's 2025 line vs RHP (.286/.375/.516, 19 HR) is elite production from the switch side.

Right side against May is thinner: Arenado .217 with limited walk rate; Gurriel .229 with a low .272 OBP; Tawa .169 in 143 PA. Moreno's 2025 .287/.353/.445 is the strongest RHB line, and he starts behind the plate.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

PitchervsPAAVGOBPSLGOPSHRK
Dustin Mayvs LHB334.261.357.495.8521582
Dustin Mayvs RHB250.256.325.386.711641
Brandon Pfaadtvs LHB416.268.324.451.7751474
Brandon Pfaadtvs RHB351.291.322.489.8111273

May's career .852 OPS vs LHB (.495 SLG, 15 HR in 334 PA) is his split to worry about, and Arizona's lineup projects with Carroll and Kepler from the left plus four switch-hitters batting left vs May. That's effectively 6 LHB looks in a lineup where he already carries the higher slug. Vs RHB he is a different pitcher -- .711 OPS, half the HR rate. Moreno, Gurriel, Arenado, and McCann are the RHB with the least profile advantage.

Pfaadt's career splits invert the usual RHP pattern: he is tougher on LHB (.324 OBP, .775 OPS) than on RHB (.322 OBP but .811 OPS with more SLG). The Cardinals' 3 RHB -- Herrera, Walker, Winn -- face the slightly friendlier side of the split, but Walker's own 2025 .200 vs RHP is the counterweight.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

PitcherSplitBFIPERAKBBHR
Dustin MayAway25857.16.28502612
Dustin MayHome32675.03.2473309
Brandon PfaadtAway36379.17.60631722
Brandon PfaadtHome40497.12.9684204

Today's game is at Chase Field -- May pitching away, Pfaadt pitching home. Both splits pull in the same direction against the Cardinals. May's career away line is 6.28 ERA in 57.1 IP (12 HR); at home he is a 3.24 ERA pitcher. Pfaadt's home ERA is 2.96 in 97.1 IP with only 4 HR allowed -- his away ERA (7.60, 22 HR in 79.1 IP) is a different pitcher. This is Pfaadt's park.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PitcherTTOPAAVGSLGOPSHRKBB
Dustin MayTTO1227.226.347.65255623
Dustin MayTTO2220.290.508.87894417
Dustin MayTTO3137.263.517.88272316
Brandon PfaadtTTO1299.282.458.78875916
Brandon PfaadtTTO2286.277.431.74985911
Brandon PfaadtTTO3182.276.547.866112910

May's 2025 baseline shows a sharp cliff between the first pass through the order (.652 OPS) and the second pass (.878). The third pass stays elevated at .882 OPS. Innings 4-6 are the danger zone -- and that lines up with his road split. The Cardinals need him to escape TTO1 with the game still close and then decide quickly whether to let him face the top of the order a third time.

Pfaadt runs an inverted TTO shape: his AVG stays flat across all three passes (.282/.277/.276), but SLG explodes in the third pass to .547 with 11 HR in 182 PA. The first and second passes are unusually strong for a mid-rotation starter (.788 and .749 OPS). If the Cardinals get the top of the order to a third look, that is where the innings open up.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

RelieverIRScoredStrand%
Kyle Leahy291162.1%
Matt Svanson261350.0%
Gordon Graceffo11554.5%
Riley O'Brien10370.0%
Michael McGreevy30100.0%

League average strand rate: ~68-72%. O'Brien (70.0%) sits at the top of that band; Leahy (62.1%) is just below. Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) are meaningfully under -- if either enters with runners on, the run expectancy jumps. McGreevy's 100% is a 3-inherited-runner sample and threw 6.1 IP yesterday, so he is unavailable early. The Cardinals want O'Brien or Leahy in the leverage spots.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

PitcherBIPGB%FB%LD%
Dustin May37244.1%28.2%26.6%
Brandon Pfaadt54443.9%26.8%29.0%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- ARI

HitterGB AVGLD AVGFB AVG
Nolan Arenado.223.560.089
Jorge Barrosa.182.333.067
Corbin Carroll.250.681.101
Lourdes Gurriel.253.570.022
Max Kepler.198.592.042
Ketel Marte.206.702.124
James McCann.250.600.190
Gabriel Moreno.326.587.063
Geraldo Perdomo.209.684.103
Tim Tawa.235.500.114
Ildemaro Vargas.241.786.125

May and Pfaadt are near-mirror career profiles (44.1% GB / 26.6% LD for May, 43.9% GB / 29.0% LD for Pfaadt) -- both are moderate ground-ball starters. Arizona's lineup damages line drives: Marte .702, Perdomo .684, Carroll .681. That is the shape of every Arizona threat -- ground balls muted (.209-.253 range), fly balls suppressed at Chase's outfield, and line drives at elite conversion. May's LD% allowed (26.6%) is right at the level where those hitters connect.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

CatcherGIPERAAVGOBPSLG
Will Smith1156.04.98.255----
Dalton Rushing634.23.89.227----
Carlos Narváez421.04.71.299----
Austin Barnes212.14.38.250----
Connor Wong25.16.75.348----

The catchers above reflect May's Dodgers tenure through 2024 -- his career battery data is dominated by Smith (11 G, 4.98 ERA in 56.0 IP) and Rushing (6 G, 3.89 ERA in 34.2 IP). Tonight's scheduled catcher is Jimmy Crooks, who has 0 IP with May in this dataset -- a fresh battery. That is a signal in itself: unfamiliar pop-time calibration, signal sequencing on the fly, and a new tempo for how May attacks Perdomo's patience and Carroll's line-drive spray. Look for early mistake-call sequences in the first pass through the order.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Carroll -- 32 SB, 6 CS, 84.2% success rate. The single-most active baserunning threat in either lineup and the profile Crooks is meeting for the first time as May's battery partner. Carroll walked once yesterday and homered; if he singles today, second base is in play immediately.

Perdomo -- 27 SB, 6 CS, 81.8% success rate. Elite success rate on a high-volume runner. Combined with a 13.1% BB% (2025), his OBP profile makes him a late-innings running threat.

Gurriel (71.4%) and Marte (66.7%) are the secondary threats -- Marte's rate is below the ~70% break-even and Gurriel's is right at it. They will run selectively, not aggressively.

Arenado and Kepler each 3-for-3 (100%) in small samples -- opportunistic, not volume runners.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

PlayerPOSGDPEFld%
Masyn WinnSS1296430.994
Jordan WalkerRF108240.981
Lars NootbaarLF107001.000
Alec Burleson1B502740.990
Alec BurlesonLF41001.000
Alec BurlesonRF34110.983
Lars NootbaarRF23001.000
Nathan ChurchCF18001.000
Jimmy CrooksC14001.000
Iván HerreraC14010.989
Lars NootbaarCF12010.967
Nathan ChurchRF7010.833
Nathan ChurchLF5001.000
Iván HerreraLF4001.000
Alec BurlesonP100--

Winn at SS anchors the infield (.994 fld%, 64 DP in 129 G) -- with May working the ground and both starters near 44% GB, Winn will see volume. Walker in RF (.981, 4 E) is the corner with the roughest fielding line among the projected starters. Church starts in CF today with an 18-game sample at that spot (1.000 fld%). Burleson's primary 2025 fielding sample is at 1B (50 G, .990), and he is starting there today.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Chase Field plays as a neutral-to-slightly-hitter-leaning venue historically (roof state and pull-side dimensions matter game-to-game). Recent head-to-head has been dead even: 3-3 in 2025, 3-3 in 2024, 3-3 in 2023, and 5-2 STL in 2022. Yesterday's 5-4 win opened the series with STL up 1-0.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Lars Nootbaar58311920.4%6411.0%
Alec Burleson5447914.5%397.2%
Masyn Winn53710219.0%346.3%
Iván Herrera4508418.7%439.6%
Jordan Walker39612631.8%297.3%
Nathan Church651827.7%34.6%
Jimmy Crooks461737.0%00.0%

Cardinals lineup swing-and-miss (2025 K%): Walker 31.8% is the extreme, Crooks 37.0% and Church 27.7% in smaller samples reinforce the tail. Burleson (14.5%) is the contact hitter. Pfaadt's 2025 K% is 19.2 -- Walker, Crooks, and Church are the three most likely swing-and-miss touchpoints in the order.

Diamondbacks

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Geraldo Perdomo7208311.5%9413.1%
Corbin Carroll64215323.8%6710.4%
Ketel Marte5568314.9%6411.5%
Lourdes Gurriel5467613.9%315.7%
Max Kepler4749319.6%4810.1%
Nolan Arenado4364911.2%286.4%
Gabriel Moreno3095317.2%299.4%
Tim Tawa2256428.4%208.9%
James McCann1373324.1%85.8%
Ildemaro Vargas1211512.4%21.7%
Jorge Barrosa772228.6%22.6%

Arizona plate discipline is bimodal. Perdomo (11.5% K%, 13.1% BB%) and Arenado (11.2% K%) are the low-K anchors -- May's out-pitch rarely finishes them cleanly. Marte at 14.9% K% is a third contact bat. Tawa (28.4%) and Barrosa (28.6%) are the two exploitable K signals for May's out-pitch profile. Carroll at 23.8% K% is the slug-heavy strikeout.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Alec Burleson39842.0%33.4%24.6%
Masyn Winn37639.6%34.0%26.3%
Lars Nootbaar37639.1%35.4%25.5%
Iván Herrera28552.6%21.8%25.6%
Jordan Walker23148.9%29.4%21.6%
Nathan Church3767.6%21.6%10.8%
Jimmy Crooks2737.0%44.4%18.5%

Herrera's 2025 GB profile (52.6%) meets Pfaadt's 55.2% 2026-to-date GB tendency -- expect ground-ball at-bats. Church (67.6% GB) has the most extreme ground-ball tendency in the lineup. Nootbaar (39.1% GB, 35.4% FB) and Winn (39.6% GB, 34.0% FB) are the most balanced batted-ball profiles -- most likely to lift for damage.

Diamondbacks

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Geraldo Perdomo48440.5%32.0%27.5%
Lourdes Gurriel40540.0%33.6%26.4%
Corbin Carroll38038.9%36.3%24.7%
Ketel Marte37044.6%32.7%22.7%
Nolan Arenado34038.2%39.7%22.1%
Max Kepler31638.3%37.7%24.1%
Gabriel Moreno21541.4%29.3%29.3%
Tim Tawa12753.5%27.6%18.9%
Ildemaro Vargas9660.4%25.0%14.6%
James McCann8551.8%24.7%23.5%
Jorge Barrosa4647.8%32.6%19.6%

Perdomo (27.5% LD), Gurriel (26.4%), Carroll (24.7%) all hit line drives at rates that cross-reference with their high LD-batted-ball AVGs (.684, .570, .681 respectively). Moreno's 29.3% LD is the highest sustainable line-drive rate in the group. May allows a 26.6% career LD -- exactly the meeting point where this Arizona lineup finds hits.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

PitcherIPKK%BBBB%K/BB
Brandon Pfaadt176.214719.2%374.8%3.97
Dustin May132.112321.1%569.6%2.20

Pfaadt: 2026 to date 4.70 ERA, 41 K / 18 BB, 7.8% BB%. 2025 baseline: 19.2% K%, 4.8% BB%, K/BB 3.97 -- elite control. May: 2026 to date 4.55 ERA, 89 K / 28 BB, 7.2% BB%. 2025 baseline: 21.1% K%, 9.6% BB%, K/BB 2.20 -- more strikeouts but a walk profile twice Pfaadt's. If the Cardinals want free passes, May issues them at more than twice Pfaadt's rate.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Masyn Winn vs Brandon Pfaadt. 11 PA career, 3-for-9 with 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K -- .333/.455/.667. The only positive BvP profile in the Cardinals lineup. Winn's 2025 baseline vs RHP is .251/.309/.368, so this matchup runs meaningfully above that. Pfaadt is tougher on RHB (.291 AVG allowed, .811 OPS) but Winn's history against him tells its own story.

Corbin Carroll vs Dustin May. 14 PA career, 3-for-13 with 1 BB, 2 K -- .231/.286/.538. No HR yet but the SLG says the extra-base contact is there. Carroll's 2025 vs RHP is .267/.354/.575 (24 HR in 443 PA), his career LD AVG is .681, and he stole a base yesterday among 32 SB at 84.2%. May is worse vs LHB (.852 career OPS) and worse on the road (6.28 ERA away). All four vectors line up on Carroll.

JJ Wetherholt leading off. No BvP history against Pfaadt (rookie sample). 2026 RISP AVG .322 (.898 OPS). Homered in T5 yesterday. Pfaadt's TTO1 line is .282/.330/.458 -- his softest OBP pass -- and Wetherholt gets first look. If Wetherholt draws a walk or gets on with contact, the top of the order threads into a Pfaadt second pass.

Watchlist.

-- May away vs May home: 6.28 ERA in 57.1 IP away, 3.24 in 75.0 IP at home. Chase Field is a road start.

-- Pfaadt TTO3 crack: .547 SLG allowed on the third pass with 11 HR in 182 PA. Getting Pfaadt to a third look at the top of the order is the cleanest scoring window.

-- Cardinals lineup discipline: Nootbaar 11.0% BB%, Herrera 9.6%, Burleson 7.2%. Pfaadt's 2025 walk rate is 4.8% -- take-the-walk swings will rarely convert. Cardinals will need contact damage rather than free passes.

-- Bullpen fork: O'Brien 70.0% strand, McGreevy 100% (3 IR, small sample), Leahy 62.1%. Svanson 50.0% and Graceffo 54.5% are meaningfully under league average (~68-72%). Which arm inherits with runners on decides innings 6-8.

-- Perdomo the walk pump: 2025 BB% 13.1 (94 BB in 720 PA), 11.5% K%. Perdomo drew 2 BB yesterday against Cardinals pitching. He is 1-for-9 vs May but reaches by not swinging.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Masyn Winn performed against Brandon Pfaadt in their career?

2. How has Dustin May fared against Corbin Carroll in their career?

3. How has Ketel Marte performed against Dustin May in their career?

4. What are Dustin May's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Corbin Carroll's splits vs RHP in 2025?

6. How often does Riley O'Brien strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Chase Field in 2025?

700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025