NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Brewers54-33-L1
Cubs49-406.0L2
Cardinals47-396.5W3
Pirates45-4510.5W1
Reds40-4814.5L2

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

DateOppH/AResult
Jul 4CHCAwayW 3-0
Jul 3CHCAwayW 17-1
Jul 2ATLAwayW 11-5
Jul 1ATLAwayL 1-5
Jun 30ATLAwayW 5-3
Jun 28MIAHomeW 2-1
Jun 27MIAHomeL 1-5
Jun 26MIAHomeL 0-4
Jun 24ARIHomeL 4-9
Jun 23ARIHomeL 3-4

STARTING PITCHERS

Matthew Liberatore (L) -- Cardinals

2026 to date: 4-5, 5.33 ERA, 82.2 IP, 79 K, 33 BB, 1.55 WHIP across 17 starts. 2025 baseline: 122 K, 40 BB in 151.2 IP (18.8% K%, 6.2% BB%, 3.05 K/BB ratio). Career vs LHB: .274/.348/.410 in 133 PA; career vs RHB: .265/.304/.426 in 515 PA -- a rare lefty with a slightly better line against righties than lefties. Career batted-ball profile skews neutral: 39.1% GB, 31.3% FB, 27.6% LD.

Javier Assad (R) -- Cubs

2026 to date: 6-1, 4.53 ERA, 51.2 IP, 31 K, 13 BB, 1.12 WHIP across 6 starts -- a return arm from injury with a strong record but a modest 15.0% K%. 2025 baseline: 23 K, 12 BB in 37 IP (15.0% K%, 7.8% BB%, 1.92 K/BB ratio). Career vs LHB: .293/.339/.552 (.891 OPS) in 62 PA -- lefties have crushed him. Career vs RHB: .205/.308/.256 (.564 OPS) in 91 PA. Career GB tilt: 47.7%. Home ERA 1.59 in 17.0 IP; away ERA 4.50 in 20.0 IP.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-07-04)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
1Wetherholt2BL.316.887
2HerreraDHR.229.735
3Burleson1BL.337.877
4WalkerRFR.307.978
5NootbaarLFL.115.558
6WinnSSR.222.646
7CrooksCL.3331.052
8Gorman3BL----
9ChurchCFL.282.781

Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).

Cubs (Projected from 2026-07-04)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
NoneBregman3BR.180.543
NoneKellyCR.328.971
NoneSwansonSSR.212.805
NoneHappLFS.175.694
NoneDeanCFR.3331.500
NoneAlcántaraDHR.250.500
NoneBusch1BL.277.819
NoneConfortoDHL.222.741
NoneAmayaCR.333.840
NoneHoerner2BR.213.569
NoneRamírez2BS.313.728
NoneCrow-ArmstrongCFL.3541.043
NoneSuzukiRFR.188.602

Handedness: 8 RHB (Bregman, Kelly, Swanson, Dean, Alcántara, Amaya, Hoerner, Suzuki), 3 LHB (Busch, Conforto, Crow-Armstrong), 2 SHB (Happ, Ramírez).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster-move context is available for today's edition -- proceed on the projected lineup as listed. The Cubs lineup pool carries 13 position players from the active roster projection, so the specific batting order is unknown until posted.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Lars Nootbaar1092.222.300.444014
Alec Burleson983.375.333.500000
Jordan Walker550.000.000.000002
Masyn Winn6551.0001.0001.600110
Iván Herrera550.000.000.000002
Jimmy Crooks221.500.5001.500001
Nathan Church220.000.000.000001

Small sample: Alec Burleson (9 PA), Jordan Walker (5 PA), Masyn Winn (6 PA), Iván Herrera (5 PA), Jimmy Crooks (2 PA), Nathan Church (2 PA).

Wetherholt and Gorman have no career BvP sample against Assad -- rookie and recent-arrival profiles both, so the entire Cardinals top-of-order look at Assad is either untested or drawn from tiny samples. Nootbaar's 10 PA is the only sample large enough to lean on, and it is a modest .222/.300/.444. Winn's 5-for-5 in 6 PA is loud but 6 PA cannot carry an angle; Burleson's 3-for-8 with no strikeouts is the more repeatable signal because Assad's 2025 K% is 15.0 -- contact-driven.

Bench note: No meaningful bench BvP vs Assad. Pedro Pages, Nelson Velazquez, Jose Fermin, Blaze Jordan, and Bryan Torres have no career look, so a late double-switch would be a profile bet, not a history bet.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Dansby Swanson11102.200.273.200013
Seiya Suzuki1091.111.200.111014
Nico Hoerner983.375.444.500010
Pete Crow-Armstrong872.286.375.571012
Carson Kelly662.333.333.333001
Ian Happ1061.167.500.667141
Michael Busch552.400.4001.200102
Michael Conforto431.333.500.333011
Miguel Amaya1111.0001.0002.000000

Small sample: Nico Hoerner (9 PA), Pete Crow-Armstrong (8 PA), Carson Kelly (6 PA), Michael Busch (5 PA), Michael Conforto (4 PA), Miguel Amaya (1 PA).

Swanson (11 PA) and Happ (10 PA) are the two large-enough samples and both are muted against Liberatore -- Swanson slugs .200 with 3 K, Happ hits .167 but has drawn 4 walks with a HR (.500 OBP). Alex Bregman and Pedro Ramirez, both projected starters, have no career look. Below the samples, Busch's 2-for-5 with a HR (.400/.400/1.200) and Kelly's 2-for-6 stand out but neither is stable at 5 or 6 PA.

Bench note: Kevin Alcantara, Justin Dean, and Pedro Ramirez have no career BvP vs Liberatore, so pinch-hit or lineup deviations are profile matchups, not history-driven.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Alec Burleson L419.296.353.478153259
Lars Nootbaar L403.249.340.394104772
Masyn Winn R374.251.309.36872371
Iván Herrera R328.268.343.399102466
Jordan Walker R289.200.263.29142194
Nathan Church L51.114.216.1821314
Jimmy Crooks L38.108.132.1620015

2025 vs RHP -- Burleson (.296/.353/.478) and Herrera (.268/.343/.399) anchor the productive middle. Nootbaar's .340 OBP vs RHP is the on-base carry from the top four. Walker (.200 vs RHP, 94 K) is the platoon liability the Cardinals live with; Church and Crooks have not shown a 2025 sample worth leaning on vs righties. Wetherholt has no 2025 vs RHP sample on file (he is a rookie), so the leadoff spot is a profile-based bet, not a track record.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Pete Crow-Armstrong L195.189.221.3777656
Ian Happ B193.225.312.36152244
Seiya Suzuki R191.245.351.509112845
Nico Hoerner R160.377.406.556548
Dansby Swanson R144.276.326.47871042
Alex Bregman R139.314.417.42432021
Carson Kelly R130.261.338.44351422
Michael Busch L106.224.283.3985727
Michael Conforto L78.246.372.3851820
Miguel Amaya R21.158.200.316118
Kevin Alcántara R7.333.429.333011

2025 vs LHP -- Hoerner (.377/.406/.556 in 160 PA) and Bregman (.314/.417/.424 in 139 PA) are the two right-handed bats that punish left-handed pitching. Both are in the projected lineup. Suzuki's power line vs LHP (.509 SLG, 11 HR) is real. The Cubs' left-handed trio (Busch, Conforto, Crow-Armstrong) is the softer spot -- PCA's .189/.221/.377 vs LHP is a genuine hole even with the 7 HR. Liberatore's vs-LHB career line (.274/.348/.410) does not fully exploit that hole, though -- expect the game plan to test PCA rather than pitch around him.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

PitchervsPAAVGOBPSLGOPSHRK
Javier Assadvs LHB62.293.339.552.891211
Javier Assadvs RHB91.205.308.256.564112
Matthew Liberatorevs RHB515.265.304.426.7301693
Matthew Liberatorevs LHB133.274.348.410.758329

The matchup type story: Assad is a massive-platoon-split arm (.891 OPS vs LHB, .564 vs RHB), and the Cardinals send six left-handed bats at him. Liberatore is the opposite type -- essentially platoon-neutral (.730 vs RHB, .758 vs LHB) -- so the Cubs' 8-RHB projection does not systematically hurt him. The upshot: Assad has a specific weakness the Cardinals are built to attack; Liberatore does not have a matching soft spot to lean into against the Cubs.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

PitcherSplitBFIPERAKBBHR
Javier AssadAway8520.04.50962
Javier AssadHome6817.01.591461
Matthew LiberatoreAway33476.04.03592611
Matthew LiberatoreHome31475.23.6963148

Today's game is at Wrigley -- Assad pitching home, Liberatore pitching away. Assad's home ERA of 1.59 (career, 17.0 IP) is comfortably better than his 4.50 away, though the sample is thin. Liberatore's away ERA of 4.03 is only modestly worse than his 3.69 at home, but he issues far more free passes away (26 BB in 76.0 IP away vs 14 BB in 75.2 IP home) -- control is the split to watch.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PitcherTTOPAAVGSLGOPSHRKBB
Javier AssadTTO173.231.292.6070136
Javier AssadTTO263.241.466.768384
Javier AssadTTO317.308.462.874022
Matthew LiberatoreTTO1264.237.376.65785615
Matthew LiberatoreTTO2252.310.511.87194017
Matthew LiberatoreTTO3132.244.353.6412268

Liberatore's 2025 TTO profile is unusual: his second pass through the order is where he collapses (.310/.360/.511, .871 OPS) -- worse than either TTO1 (.657 OPS) or TTO3 (.641 OPS). That is a middle-innings pressure window, roughly innings 4-6. Assad's 2025 TTO2 is only modestly worse than TTO1, but his TTO3 (17 PA, .308/.412/.462, .874 OPS) suggests the Cubs will pull him around 20 batters faced -- the third pass through the order is where his fastball flattens.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

RelieverIRScoredStrand%
Kyle Leahy291162.1%
JoJo Romero26388.5%
Matt Svanson261350.0%
Riley O'Brien10370.0%
Ryan Fernandez8450.0%
Michael McGreevy30100.0%

League average strand rate: ~68-72%. JoJo Romero (88.5% on 26 IR) is the fireman; Matt Svanson (50.0% on 26 IR) and Ryan Fernandez (50.0% on 8) are the two arms to avoid with runners on. Leahy's 62.1% on 29 IR is below league average -- he is used as a bulk arm now, not a bullpen firefighter, and yesterday's 5-inning start reinforces that role.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

PitcherBIPGB%FB%LD%
Javier Assad11147.7%24.3%27.9%
Matthew Liberatore46339.1%31.3%27.6%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- CHC

HitterGB AVGLD AVGFB AVG
Kevin Alcántara.333.750--
Miguel Amaya.222.667.200
Alex Bregman.288.593.083
Michael Busch.219.670.106
Michael Conforto.183.621.075
Pete Crow-Armstrong.245.650.106
Justin Dean.000----
Ian Happ.214.591.114
Nico Hoerner.284.618.095
Carson Kelly.205.603.113
Seiya Suzuki.261.627.078
Dansby Swanson.235.630.103

Assad induces grounders at a 47.7% career clip; Liberatore is more balanced (39.1% GB). Cubs hitters do modest damage on grounders (typical .21-.29) but explode on line drives (Busch .670, PCA .650, Suzuki .627). Liberatore's 27.6% career LD-allowed rate is the exact zone Cubs bats punish -- if he leaves the ball middle in innings 4-6, expect extra bases. Cardinals hitters' 2025 GB tilt (Herrera 52.6%, Walker 48.9%, Church 67.6%) is a mixed fit against Assad's 47.7% GB profile -- ground-ball matchup on both sides in the middle of the STL order.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

CatcherGIPERAAVGOBPSLG
Pedro Pagés1575.23.93.279----
Yohel Pozo1263.24.10.259----
Jimmy Crooks211.02.45.225----

Tonight's -- rather, today's -- projected starting catcher is Jimmy Crooks (position C in the Cardinals lineup). Crooks has only 2 games / 11.0 IP paired with Liberatore this season, so this is close to a fresh battery in Liberatore terms. Pedro Pages is Liberatore's primary catcher (15 G, 75.2 IP, 3.93 ERA together) but is on the bench today; Yohel Pozo is not on the current Cardinals active roster, so his 12-game sample above reflects an earlier stretch of the season before the current roster was set. The Crooks/Liberatore paired ERA of 2.45 in a 2-game sample is loud but statistically thin -- watch early-count sequencing for signal that the battery has caught up.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Pete Crow-Armstrong -- 35 SB, 8 CS, 81.4% success. The primary running threat, and yesterday's box shows he was caught stealing against the Cardinals -- so this is a live head-to-head trend.

Nico Hoerner -- 29 SB, 6 CS, 82.9% success. The complementary threat; the Cubs' two-headed running game hits the middle infield hard.

Dansby Swanson -- 20 SB, 3 CS, 87.0% success. Efficient rather than volume-heavy but still a threat when Liberatore holds the ball.

Ian Happ -- 6 SB, 3 CS, 66.7% success. Middle-tier; risk-tolerant given the modest success rate.

Seiya Suzuki -- 5 SB, 2 CS, 71.4% success. Situational; occasional attempt.

Others (Busch, Kelly, Dean, Bregman, Conforto, Alcantara) -- 1-4 SB each, 50-100% success. Low-attempt volume.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

PlayerPOSGDPEFld%
Masyn WinnSS1296430.994
Jordan WalkerRF108240.981
Lars NootbaarLF107001.000
Alec Burleson1B502740.990
Alec BurlesonLF41001.000
Alec BurlesonRF34110.983
Lars NootbaarRF23001.000
Nathan ChurchCF18001.000
Jimmy CrooksC14001.000
Iván HerreraC14010.989
Lars NootbaarCF12010.967
Nathan ChurchRF7010.833
Nathan ChurchLF5001.000
Iván HerreraLF4001.000
Alec BurlesonP100--

Winn's .994 fielding at SS across 129 games with 64 DP is the defensive spine. Church starting in center today is the alignment shift worth noting -- his primary 2025 CF sample is 18 games with a perfect fielding pct, small but clean; his outfield-corner samples show one error in RF (7 G) and none in LF. Assad's GB tilt (47.7%) puts the infield in the play-making seats -- Wetherholt at 2B and Gorman at 3B are the two lineup infielders whose 2025 fielding samples do not appear in the table, so their defensive work today is a fresh look at a GB-heavy matchup.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Head-to-head, recent seasons: 2025 STL 5-8, 2024 STL 7-6, 2023 STL 5-8, 2022 STL 13-6. The Cardinals have already won the first two games of this series (17-1 on Jul 3 and 3-0 on Jul 4), so a Sunday win seals the sweep. Wrigley Field plays as a wind-dependent venue; the available data does not carry a numeric park factor, so treat it as neutral-until-proven-otherwise for today's editorial.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Lars Nootbaar58311920.4%6411.0%
Alec Burleson5447914.5%397.2%
Masyn Winn53710219.0%346.3%
Iván Herrera4508418.7%439.6%
Jordan Walker39612631.8%297.3%
Nathan Church651827.7%34.6%
Jimmy Crooks461737.0%00.0%

2025 K%/BB% -- Nootbaar's 11.0% walk rate is the top-of-order patience piece; Herrera 9.6%. Contact-side, Walker's 31.8% K% and Crooks's 37.0% K% flag the two bats most vulnerable to Assad's slider; that Crooks has drawn 0 walks in his 46-PA sample is the loudest red flag on this side of the ledger.

Cubs

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Ian Happ66315122.8%8713.1%
Seiya Suzuki65116425.2%7110.9%
Nico Hoerner649497.6%396.0%
Pete Crow-Armstrong64715524.0%294.5%
Dansby Swanson64516826.0%477.3%
Michael Busch59213923.5%569.5%
Alex Bregman4957014.1%5110.3%
Michael Conforto48612124.9%5611.5%
Carson Kelly4218019.0%4510.7%
Miguel Amaya1032221.4%43.9%
Kevin Alcántara12433.3%18.3%
Justin Dean2150.0%00.0%

2025 K%/BB% -- Hoerner's 7.6% K% is the elite contact piece; Bregman's 14.1% K% with 10.3% BB% is the disciplined tandem. Suzuki (25.2%) and Swanson (26.0%) K% are the two extreme swing-and-miss lines Liberatore can attack; PCA at 4.5% BB% is the low-patience bat. Happ leads the group in walk rate at 13.1%, the Cubs' primary on-base engine.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Alec Burleson39842.0%33.4%24.6%
Masyn Winn37639.6%34.0%26.3%
Lars Nootbaar37639.1%35.4%25.5%
Iván Herrera28552.6%21.8%25.6%
Jordan Walker23148.9%29.4%21.6%
Nathan Church3767.6%21.6%10.8%
Jimmy Crooks2737.0%44.4%18.5%

2025 batted-ball profile -- Herrera 52.6% GB and Walker 48.9% GB meet Assad's 47.7% career GB rate, meaning the middle of the STL order is set up for infield contact. Crooks's 44.4% FB is the outlier at the bottom -- flyball-oriented into a groundball-tilted starter is a mismatch.

Cubs

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Nico Hoerner57145.7%27.7%26.6%
Pete Crow-Armstrong41334.6%41.2%24.2%
Ian Happ40938.9%34.2%26.9%
Dansby Swanson40745.0%28.5%26.5%
Seiya Suzuki39335.1%38.9%26.0%
Michael Busch36939.6%35.8%24.7%
Alex Bregman35341.4%34.3%24.4%
Carson Kelly28740.8%33.8%25.4%
Michael Conforto28544.2%32.6%23.2%
Miguel Amaya7038.6%35.7%25.7%
Kevin Alcántara742.9%0.0%57.1%
Justin Dean1100.0%0.0%0.0%

2025 batted-ball profile -- PCA's 41.2% FB and Suzuki's 38.9% FB are the two Cubs bats built to lift the ball; Liberatore's 39.1% career GB is only modestly groundball-tilted, so lofted contact is the risk. Hoerner and Swanson (45%+ GB) hit into a neutral surface. Busch's 35.8% FB rate paired with his career .670 LD AVG against Liberatore (Section 2G) is the extra-base pathway to watch.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

PitcherIPKK%BBBB%K/BB
Matthew Liberatore151.212218.8%406.2%3.05
Javier Assad37.02315.0%127.8%1.92

2026 to date: Liberatore 79 K / 33 BB in 82.2 IP. 2025 baseline: 18.8% K%, 6.2% BB%, 3.05 K/BB ratio -- the strike-throwing is the identity, though the swing-and-miss is only average. 2026 to date: Assad 31 K / 13 BB in 51.2 IP. 2025 baseline: 15.0% K%, 7.8% BB%, 1.92 K/BB ratio -- a low-K, contact-management arm whose margin is narrow when the ball finds barrel.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

JJ Wetherholt vs Assad. No career sample -- Wetherholt is a rookie leadoff bat. What matters is the profile fit: he is left-handed, and Assad's 2025 vs-LHB line is .293/.339/.552 (.891 OPS). Wetherholt is coming off a 3-hit HR day, hitting from the top of the order into a starter whose weakness is his side.

Masyn Winn vs Assad. 5-for-5 with a HR in a 6-PA career look (1.000/1.000/1.600). The sample is tiny and cannot carry the analysis alone, but Winn hitting sixth after five lefties is a real hinge -- the RHB at the bottom of the order breaks Assad's platoon comfort just when a Cardinals rally most needs to extend.

Michael Busch vs Liberatore. 2-for-5 career with a HR (.400/.400/1.200). Add Liberatore's 2025 vs-LHB slash (.274/.348/.410), and Busch is the Cubs bat with the clearest path to extra bases this afternoon.

Liberatore TTO2 window. His 2025 second pass through the order (.310/.360/.511, .871 OPS) is a full ~200 OPS points worse than TTO1 (.657) and TTO3 (.641). Innings 4-6 are when the Cubs get their look -- and where the game is likely decided.

X-factor: Fresh battery Crooks + Liberatore. Only 2 games / 11.0 IP paired together this season. If cross-ups appear in the first pass, they can compound the TTO2 problem. If they do not, the Cardinals unlock a starter/catcher combo that limits Cubs damage without needing the veteran Pages.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has JJ Wetherholt performed against Javier Assad in their career?

2. How has Matthew Liberatore fared against Michael Busch in their career?

3. How has Masyn Winn performed against Javier Assad in their career?

4. What are Matthew Liberatore's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Pete Crow-Armstrong's splits vs LHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Wrigley Field in 2025?

700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025