NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 54-32 | - | W1 |
| Cubs | 49-39 | 6.0 | L1 |
| Cardinals | 46-39 | 7.5 | W2 |
| Pirates | 44-45 | 11.5 | L1 |
| Reds | 40-47 | 14.5 | L1 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 3 | CHC | Away | W 17-1 |
| Jul 2 | ATL | Away | W 11-5 |
| Jul 1 | ATL | Away | L 1-5 |
| Jun 30 | ATL | Away | W 5-3 |
| Jun 28 | MIA | Home | W 2-1 |
| Jun 27 | MIA | Home | L 1-5 |
| Jun 26 | MIA | Home | L 0-4 |
| Jun 24 | ARI | Home | L 4-9 |
| Jun 23 | ARI | Home | L 3-4 |
| Jun 22 | ARI | Home | W 3-2 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Kyle Leahy (R) -- STL
6-4, 4.09 ERA, 81.1 IP through 16 starts in 2026 to date. 67 K, 31 BB, 1.48 WHIP, 9 HR allowed, 51.8% GB rate. 2025 baseline: 22.0% K%, 7.7% BB%, 2.86 K/BB ratio over 88.0 IP.
Shota Imanaga (L) -- CHC
5-6, 4.30 ERA, 98.1 IP through 17 starts in 2026 to date. 92 K, 23 BB, 1.08 WHIP, 20 HR allowed, 44.6% GB rate. 2025 baseline: 20.6% K%, 4.6% BB%, 4.50 K/BB ratio over 144.2 IP -- premium command profile.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-07-03)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .316 | .887 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .221 | .721 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .337 | .884 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .313 | .997 |
| 5 | Nootbaar | LF | L | .125 | .600 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .225 | .654 |
| 7 | Crooks | C | L | .333 | 1.052 |
| 8 | Gorman | 3B | L | -- | -- |
| 9 | Church | CF | L | .282 | .781 |
Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).
Cubs (Projected from 2026-07-03)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | Bregman | 3B | R | .184 | .553 |
| None | Kelly | C | R | .328 | .971 |
| None | Swanson | SS | R | .212 | .805 |
| None | Happ | LF | S | .177 | .700 |
| None | Dean | CF | R | .333 | 1.500 |
| None | Alcántara | DH | R | .250 | .500 |
| None | Busch | 1B | L | .280 | .827 |
| None | Conforto | DH | L | .222 | .741 |
| None | Amaya | C | R | .333 | .840 |
| None | Hoerner | 2B | R | .213 | .569 |
| None | Ramírez | 2B | S | .313 | .728 |
| None | Crow-Armstrong | CF | L | .354 | 1.043 |
| None | Suzuki | RF | R | .190 | .609 |
Handedness: 8 RHB (Bregman, Kelly, Swanson, Dean, Alcántara, Amaya, Hoerner, Suzuki), 3 LHB (Busch, Conforto, Crow-Armstrong), 2 SHB (Happ, Ramírez).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No confirmed injury or roster-move updates available for tonight. Lineups are projected off yesterday's 17-1 win; Ted will confirm any late scratches once the official card posts.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | 12 | 12 | 4 | .333 | .333 | .583 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Alec Burleson | 8 | 8 | 1 | .125 | .125 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Iván Herrera | 6 | 6 | 1 | .167 | .167 | .167 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Walker | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Small sample: Alec Burleson (8 PA), Iván Herrera (6 PA), Lars Nootbaar (3 PA), Jordan Walker (3 PA).
Winn's 12 PA (.333/.333/.583, 1 HR) is the deepest sample the Cardinals carry against Imanaga. Everyone else lives inside the small-sample flag -- Burleson (8 PA, .125) and Herrera (6 PA, .167) are the two soft looks, Nootbaar and Walker sit at 3 PA. Group-level, the Cardinals face Imanaga effectively blind outside of Winn.
Bench note: Wetherholt, Crooks, Gorman, and Church have no career BvP rows against Imanaga -- the projected order carries four unknowns vs tonight's starter.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner | 8 | 7 | 1 | .143 | .250 | .143 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 5 | 5 | 2 | .400 | .400 | .400 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Busch | 5 | 5 | 2 | .400 | .400 | .600 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dansby Swanson | 5 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .600 | .333 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Alex Bregman | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .667 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Carson Kelly | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ian Happ | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Miguel Amaya | 2 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .500 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Small sample: Nico Hoerner (8 PA), Pete Crow-Armstrong (5 PA), Michael Busch (5 PA), Dansby Swanson (5 PA), Alex Bregman (3 PA), Seiya Suzuki (3 PA), Carson Kelly (2 PA), Ian Happ (2 PA), Miguel Amaya (2 PA).
Nine Cubs bats carry BvP samples vs Leahy, but every one is under the 10-PA reliability line. Busch (.400/.400/.600 in 5 PA) and Crow-Armstrong (.400/.400/.400 in 5 PA) are the two hottest looks; Swanson's 5 PA / 2 BB / .600 OBP shows plate discipline against him. Hoerner is 1-for-7 with a walk -- Leahy's best comfort look in the group.
Bench note: Alcántara, Conforto, Dean, and Ramírez have no career rows against Leahy in the BvP sample. Those four bats represent unknowns off the bench or in a late-game pinch role.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar L | 180 | .201 | .291 | .289 | 3 | 17 | 47 |
| Masyn Winn R | 163 | .255 | .313 | .349 | 2 | 11 | 31 |
| Alec Burleson L | 127 | .271 | .310 | .398 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| Iván Herrera R | 124 | .330 | .455 | .660 | 9 | 19 | 18 |
| Jordan Walker R | 107 | .255 | .318 | .347 | 2 | 8 | 32 |
| Nathan Church L | 14 | .417 | .417 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Jimmy Crooks L | 8 | .250 | .250 | .625 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Against LHP in the 2025 sample, Herrera is the Cardinals' clear lever -- .330/.455/.660 with 9 HR in 124 PA. That production has to lead the game plan tonight. Burleson holds his own (.271 with 3 HR in 127 PA) while Nootbaar (.201) is the roughest look in the LHB group. Winn's .255/.313/.349 line vs LHP is the second-best RHB profile after Herrera; Walker's .255 with 32 K in 107 PA carries strikeout risk. Church's 14 PA (.417) is a hopeful signal, not a reliable one.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dansby Swanson R | 530 | .230 | .289 | .388 | 17 | 40 | 141 |
| Nico Hoerner R | 522 | .280 | .331 | .353 | 3 | 35 | 43 |
| Michael Busch L | 517 | .272 | .358 | .563 | 33 | 52 | 116 |
| Ian Happ B | 503 | .240 | .342 | .437 | 20 | 67 | 120 |
| Seiya Suzuki R | 492 | .244 | .311 | .476 | 24 | 44 | 129 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong L | 483 | .267 | .310 | .506 | 24 | 24 | 111 |
| Michael Conforto L | 408 | .190 | .292 | .323 | 11 | 48 | 101 |
| Alex Bregman R | 369 | .258 | .341 | .474 | 15 | 34 | 51 |
| Carson Kelly R | 321 | .238 | .321 | .408 | 13 | 32 | 70 |
| Miguel Amaya R | 82 | .312 | .341 | .545 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| Kevin Alcántara R | 5 | .400 | .400 | .400 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Justin Dean R | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Against RHP in the 2025 sample, the Cubs' power tilts left-handed: Busch (.272/.358/.563, 33 HR in 517 PA) and Crow-Armstrong (.267/.310/.506, 24 HR in 483 PA) headline the LHB group. Suzuki (.476 SLG, 24 HR) and Bregman (.474 SLG, 15 HR) are the primary RHB power looks. Amaya's .312/.341/.545 line in 82 PA is the sneakiest matchup risk. Conforto's .190 across 408 PA is the one clear soft spot Leahy can attack.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanaga | vs RHB | 438 | .222 | .252 | .477 | .729 | 30 | 87 |
| Shota Imanaga | vs LHB | 159 | .221 | .278 | .345 | .623 | 4 | 36 |
| Kyle Leahy | vs LHB | 163 | .252 | .337 | .364 | .701 | 3 | 37 |
| Kyle Leahy | vs RHB | 200 | .238 | .270 | .319 | .589 | 2 | 43 |
Imanaga runs a reverse-platoon look in his 2025 sample -- .623 OPS vs LHB, .729 vs RHB. Against a Cardinals lineup that is 6 LHB deep, the matchup type is unfavorable to the Cardinals collectively, though Herrera and Winn on the RHB side both slot into Imanaga's weaker split. Leahy is the opposite: .589 OPS vs RHB, .701 vs LHB. Against the Cubs' 8-RHB / 3-LHB / 2-SHB configuration, Leahy's right-handed dominance is the leverage point -- Busch, Conforto, and Crow-Armstrong are the three LHB he has to be careful with.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanaga | Away | 300 | 76.0 | 3.43 | 63 | 12 | 16 |
| Shota Imanaga | Home | 297 | 75.1 | 4.06 | 60 | 16 | 18 |
| Kyle Leahy | Away | 173 | 43.2 | 2.68 | 46 | 13 | 2 |
| Kyle Leahy | Home | 190 | 44.1 | 4.47 | 34 | 15 | 3 |
Tonight's game is at Wrigley -- Leahy pitching away, where he owns a 2.68 ERA over 43.2 IP with a 46/13 K/BB and just 2 HR allowed. Imanaga is home, where his 4.06 ERA and 18 HR allowed across 75.1 IP are both worse than his road line. The venue split favors Leahy on multiple axes.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanaga | TTO1 | 245 | .223 | .502 | .771 | 19 | 55 | 14 |
| Shota Imanaga | TTO2 | 232 | .226 | .421 | .678 | 11 | 44 | 9 |
| Shota Imanaga | TTO3 | 120 | .211 | .368 | .610 | 4 | 24 | 5 |
| Kyle Leahy | TTO1 | 355 | .247 | .341 | .645 | 5 | 76 | 28 |
| Kyle Leahy | TTO2 | 8 | .125 | .250 | .375 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Imanaga's line inverts the typical TTO curve. His worst OPS-against is the first pass through the order (.771 in 245 PA of the 2025 sample, 19 HR on a .502 SLG) and he tightens each turn -- .678 OPS second pass, .610 third pass. Cardinals need to damage him in innings 1-3; if they let him settle, the strike-throwing profile compounds. Leahy's 2025 sample is almost entirely first pass through the order (355 PA, .247/.304/.341, .645 OPS); his 8 PA in the second-pass bucket is too small to characterize.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Ryan Fernandez | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate is roughly 68-72%. Romero (88.5% on 26 inherited runners) is the shutdown bridge arm and sits well above league. Svanson and Fernandez both sit at 50.0% -- danger arms in high-leverage inherited-runner spots. O'Brien at 70.0% is roughly league-average. Leahy's 62.1% mark here is his relief-outing profile from earlier in the season, not tonight's starting role.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanaga | 411 | 30.9% | 46.2% | 21.4% |
| Kyle Leahy | 249 | 44.2% | 26.9% | 27.7% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- CHC
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Alcántara | .333 | .750 | -- |
| Miguel Amaya | .222 | .667 | .200 |
| Alex Bregman | .288 | .593 | .083 |
| Michael Busch | .219 | .670 | .106 |
| Michael Conforto | .183 | .621 | .075 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | .245 | .650 | .106 |
| Justin Dean | .000 | -- | -- |
| Ian Happ | .214 | .591 | .114 |
| Nico Hoerner | .284 | .618 | .095 |
| Carson Kelly | .205 | .603 | .113 |
| Seiya Suzuki | .261 | .627 | .078 |
| Dansby Swanson | .235 | .630 | .103 |
Imanaga is a career fly-ball starter (46.2% FB, 30.9% GB) working at Wrigley. The Cubs' own fly-ball AVGs sit low across the board (.075-.114 range) -- fly balls are outs unless the wind carries. Leahy is the opposite: 44.2% career GB against a Cubs lineup where Crow-Armstrong (.650 LD AVG), Suzuki (.627), Hoerner (.618), Busch (.670), and Swanson (.630) all punish line drives. Leahy's ground-ball tilt is what mutes the Cubs' line-drive damage.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 43 | 62.0 | 3.05 | .225 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 13 | 16.0 | 2.25 | .259 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 4 | 6.1 | 8.53 | .346 | -- | -- |
| Iván Herrera | 4 | 3.0 | 6.00 | .308 | -- | -- |
The catchers above reflect the full Cardinals pitching staff's pairing lines this season, not Leahy specifically. Tonight's scheduled catcher is Jimmy Crooks -- 4 games and 6.1 IP behind the plate with an 8.53 ERA in that sample. The Crooks-Leahy pairing has no dedicated pairing entry here, so treat this as a fresh battery. That is a scouting angle on its own: watch pop times and glove-side setups in the first pass through the order.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
-- Pete Crow-Armstrong: 35 SB / 8 CS (81.4% success). Primary Cubs speed lever.
-- Nico Hoerner: 29 SB / 6 CS (82.9%). Volume threat with quick reads.
-- Dansby Swanson: 20 SB / 3 CS (87.0%). Efficient on selective attempts.
-- Ian Happ: 6 SB / 3 CS (66.7%). Occasional threat.
-- Seiya Suzuki: 5 SB / 2 CS (71.4%). Moderate.
-- Michael Busch: 4 SB / 0 CS (100.0%). Perfect but limited attempts.
-- Carson Kelly: 2 SB / 0 CS (100.0%). Rare.
-- Justin Dean: 1 SB / 0 CS (100.0%). Rare.
-- Alex Bregman: 1 SB / 1 CS (50.0%). Non-threat.
-- Michael Conforto: 1 SB / 0 CS (100.0%). Non-threat.
-- Kevin Alcántara: 1 SB / 0 CS (100.0%). Limited sample.
Combined Crow-Armstrong + Hoerner run at 64 SB and 14 CS -- the Cubs' primary offensive speed. With Crooks new to Leahy's release, expect the running game to test the battery in innings 1-3.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 107 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Lars Nootbaar | RF | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Jimmy Crooks | C | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Lars Nootbaar | CF | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.967 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Winn anchors shortstop behind a ground-ball starter -- 129 games, 64 double plays, 3 errors, .994 fld%. That's the highest-leverage defensive slot tonight given Leahy's 44.2% career GB rate. Walker in right is the shakiest projected starter (.981 fld%, 4 errors in 108 games) but playable. Crooks catches for the fourth time this season and enters with a clean fld% at C but a small 14-game sample.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Wrigley Field plays as a wind-dependent venue -- typically neutral to hitter-leaning when the wind carries out. Recent head-to-head splits: 5-8 in 2025, 7-6 in 2024, 5-8 in 2023, 13-6 in 2022. The 2025 line is the freshest reference and the Cubs held the edge; STL is 1-0 in this three-game series after last night's 17-1 rout.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar | 583 | 119 | 20.4% | 64 | 11.0% |
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 46 | 17 | 37.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Walker's 2025 K% of 31.8% and Crooks' 37.0% (in only 46 PA) are the strikeout risks against Imanaga's 20.6% 2025 K% rate. Nootbaar's 11.0% BB% is the discipline anchor at the top of the group. Burleson runs a 14.5% 2025 K% in 544 PA -- highest-contact bat in the projected order.
Cubs
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Happ | 663 | 151 | 22.8% | 87 | 13.1% |
| Seiya Suzuki | 651 | 164 | 25.2% | 71 | 10.9% |
| Nico Hoerner | 649 | 49 | 7.6% | 39 | 6.0% |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 647 | 155 | 24.0% | 29 | 4.5% |
| Dansby Swanson | 645 | 168 | 26.0% | 47 | 7.3% |
| Michael Busch | 592 | 139 | 23.5% | 56 | 9.5% |
| Alex Bregman | 495 | 70 | 14.1% | 51 | 10.3% |
| Michael Conforto | 486 | 121 | 24.9% | 56 | 11.5% |
| Carson Kelly | 421 | 80 | 19.0% | 45 | 10.7% |
| Miguel Amaya | 103 | 22 | 21.4% | 4 | 3.9% |
| Kevin Alcántara | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 1 | 8.3% |
| Justin Dean | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Hoerner's 2025 7.6% K% is the outlier -- elite contact across 649 PA. Bregman (14.1%) is the other high-contact bat. On the strikeout end, Crow-Armstrong (24.0%) and Swanson (26.0%) are the aggressive whiff-and-power profiles Leahy should attack in the zone. Happ's 13.1% BB% is the top plate-discipline number in the Cubs' lineup on the 2025 sample.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Lars Nootbaar | 376 | 39.1% | 35.4% | 25.5% |
| Iván Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 27 | 37.0% | 44.4% | 18.5% |
Church's 2025 67.6% GB rate is extreme -- he beats the ball into the ground more than any bat in the projected order (37 BIP, small sample). Herrera's 2025 52.6% GB is the other ground-ball tilted bat; against Imanaga's 46.2% career FB tendency, Herrera's GB tilt mutes the power upside but suits contact. Crooks (2025 44.4% FB) is the batted-ball counter here, though the 27-BIP sample is thin.
Cubs
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner | 571 | 45.7% | 27.7% | 26.6% |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 413 | 34.6% | 41.2% | 24.2% |
| Ian Happ | 409 | 38.9% | 34.2% | 26.9% |
| Dansby Swanson | 407 | 45.0% | 28.5% | 26.5% |
| Seiya Suzuki | 393 | 35.1% | 38.9% | 26.0% |
| Michael Busch | 369 | 39.6% | 35.8% | 24.7% |
| Alex Bregman | 353 | 41.4% | 34.3% | 24.4% |
| Carson Kelly | 287 | 40.8% | 33.8% | 25.4% |
| Michael Conforto | 285 | 44.2% | 32.6% | 23.2% |
| Miguel Amaya | 70 | 38.6% | 35.7% | 25.7% |
| Kevin Alcántara | 7 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 57.1% |
| Justin Dean | 1 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Crow-Armstrong's 2025 41.2% FB rate and Suzuki's 38.9% are the fly-ball tilted bats in the Cubs' lineup. Against Leahy's 44.2% career GB approach, that is the collision point -- if Leahy stays down, both bats generate outs; if he elevates, both have shown the power to punish. Hoerner (45.7% 2025 GB) is the direct-collision profile with Leahy's ground-ball tilt.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanaga | 144.2 | 117 | 20.6% | 26 | 4.6% | 4.50 |
| Kyle Leahy | 88.0 | 80 | 22.0% | 28 | 7.7% | 2.86 |
Imanaga -- 2026 to date: 4.30 ERA, 92 K / 23 BB in 98.1 IP. 2025 baseline: 20.6% K%, 4.6% BB%, 4.50 K/BB ratio -- premium command profile.
Leahy -- 2026 to date: 4.09 ERA, 67 K / 31 BB in 81.1 IP. 2025 baseline: 22.0% K%, 7.7% BB%, 2.86 K/BB ratio. The K% is right in the same neighborhood; the walk rate is where he trails Imanaga.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Key Matchups
Winn vs Imanaga. Masyn Winn is 4-for-12 with a HR in the career BvP sample against Imanaga (Section 2A) -- the Cardinals' deepest sample on tonight's starter. He is one of only three RHB in the projected order, and Imanaga runs a .729 OPS-against vs RHB in his 2025 platoon sample (30 HR in 438 PA, Section 2D). If Cardinals damage Imanaga tonight, Winn is the likely instigator.
Herrera vs LHP. Ivan Herrera slashed .330/.455/.660 vs LHP in his 2025 sample (124 PA, 9 HR, Section 2C) -- the best Cardinals bat in the platoon lookup. His 1-for-6 career BvP sample against Imanaga is thin, but the 2025 profile is the tell against a left-hander tonight.
Busch vs Leahy. Michael Busch is 2-for-5 with a .600 SLG in the career BvP sample against Leahy (Section 2B), and slashed .272/.358/.563 with 33 HR vs RHP in his 2025 sample (Section 2C). Leahy's .364 SLG-against vs LHB in his 2025 sample (Section 2D) is a strong overall profile, but Busch is the one bat Leahy has to work around.
X-factor: Imanaga's first pass through the order. Imanaga allowed 19 HR in 245 PA during the first pass in his 2025 sample (.502 SLG, .771 OPS, Section 2E), then improves each turn -- .678 OPS second pass, .610 third pass. Cardinals need to hunt fastballs in innings 1-3.
Watchlist
-- Leahy second pass through the order. Leahy has just 8 PA in his 2025 second-pass bucket (.125 AVG, .375 OPS, Section 2E). Sample too thin to characterize -- when he reaches innings 4-6 with a starter's line, the bullpen bridge decisions are made without a data anchor.
-- Crooks-Leahy battery. Crooks has caught only 6.1 IP with a Cardinals starter this season (8.53 ERA in that sample, Section 2H). Fresh signal-calling context tonight -- watch for pop times and glove-side setups in the first pass through the order.
-- Cubs speed threat. Pete Crow-Armstrong (35 SB, 81.4% success) and Nico Hoerner (29 SB, 82.9%, Section 2I) headline the Cubs' baserunning profile. With Crooks new to Leahy's release, runners will test the battery early.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Masyn Winn performed against Shota Imanaga in their career?
2. How has Kyle Leahy fared against Michael Busch in their career?
3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Pete Crow-Armstrong in their career?
4. What are Kyle Leahy's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Ivan Herrera's splits vs LHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Wrigley Field in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025