NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Brewers55-33-W1
Cubs50-406.0W1
Cardinals47-407.5L1
Pirates46-4510.5W2
Reds41-4814.5W1

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

DateOppH/AResult
Jul 5CHCAwayL 4-6
Jul 4CHCAwayW 3-0
Jul 3CHCAwayW 17-1
Jul 2ATLAwayW 11-5
Jul 1ATLAwayL 1-5
Jun 30ATLAwayW 5-3
Jun 28MIAHomeW 2-1
Jun 27MIAHomeL 1-5
Jun 26MIAHomeL 0-4
Jun 24ARIHomeL 4-9

STARTING PITCHERS

Dustin May (STL, R) -- 5-6, 4.80 ERA

May is 84.1 IP into his 2026 season across 16 starts with a 4.80 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 78 K, and 24 BB. His 2026-to-date K%/BB% profile: 22.2% / 6.8% (2.20 K/BB ratio in 2025 as reference). Ground-ball rate 48.1% in 2025, 7 HR allowed this year. The 2025 home/away split is the dominant framing for tonight: 3.24 ERA in 75.0 IP at home vs 6.28 in 57.1 IP on the road. Busch is the favorable half.

Shane Drohan (MIL, L) -- 3-2, 3.12 ERA

Drohan has 57.2 IP in 7 starts with a 3.12 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 59 K, 18 BB, and 5 HR allowed. K%/BB%: 24.5% / 7.5%. 49.1% GB rate. The LHP identity is the throughline -- Cardinals project 6 LHB in tonight's lineup, giving Drohan the platoon side of nearly every at-bat.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-07-05)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
1Wetherholt2BL.316.887
2HerreraDHR.229.735
3Burleson1BL.343.888
4WalkerRFR.3141.013
5NootbaarLFL.115.558
6WinnSSR.222.646
7CrooksCL.3331.052
8Gorman3BL----
9ChurchCFL.282.781

Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).

Brewers (From active roster)

13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

PlayerPosBats
Vaughn1BR
PerkinsCFS
Turang2BL
YelichDHL
PrattSSR
Hamilton3BL
MitchellCFL
SánchezCR
ChourioLFR
Bauers1BL
OrtizSSR
FrelickRFL
ContrerasCR

Handedness: 6 RHB (Vaughn, Pratt, Sánchez, Chourio, Ortiz, Contreras), 6 LHB (Turang, Yelich, Hamilton, Mitchell, Bauers, Frelick), 1 SHB (Perkins).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster-move information available for tonight's slate.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

No data available for this section.

No Cardinals batter has a career BvP sample against Drohan. The Cardinals are effectively facing him blind -- profile-based scouting (platoon, TTO, batted-ball) is the only lever tonight.

Bench note: No significant bench BvP history against Drohan (Blaze Jordan, Bryan Torres, Jose Fermin, Nelson Velazquez, Pedro Pages -- no rows).

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

No data available for this section.

No Brewers batter has a career BvP sample against May. This mirrors the 2A situation -- with Drohan's arrival in the NL Central and May's Dodgers-heavy history, both starters are working against unfamiliar lineups tonight.

Bench note: No significant bench BvP history against May in the career sample.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Lars Nootbaar L180.201.291.28931747
Masyn Winn R163.255.313.34921131
Alec Burleson L127.271.310.3983720
Iván Herrera R124.330.455.66091918
Jordan Walker R107.255.318.3472832
Nathan Church L14.417.417.500004
Jimmy Crooks L8.250.250.625102

With Drohan (L) starting and 6 LHB in the projected lineup, the platoon math cuts against St. Louis at the top and middle of the card. Herrera is the standout counter -- .330 / .455 / .660 vs LHP in 124 PA with 9 HR (2025). Burleson (L, .271 in 127 PA) is the lefty who holds his own; Nootbaar (L, .201 in 180 PA) is the primary drag. Church's .417 in 14 PA is too small a 2025 sample to lean on, and Crooks (8 PA) is the same. Wetherholt has no 2025 vs LHP sample on file -- profile unknown at leadoff.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
William Contreras R502.263.349.409145992
Brice Turang L489.274.352.4471653117
Jackson Chourio R464.249.283.435162091
Christian Yelich L461.271.356.4932551114
Sal Frelick L442.278.342.421123859
Joey Ortiz R380.203.261.27252657
Andrew Vaughn R335.227.272.385121964
Jake Bauers L214.244.360.42883156
David Hamilton L174.203.263.35461341
Blake Perkins B130.203.277.30511138
Gary Sánchez R59.245.322.4914216
Garrett Mitchell L54.208.278.3330521

Against RHP (May), the Brewers' top-line names carry the offensive load: Yelich (L, .271 / .356 / .493 in 461 PA, 25 HR), Contreras (R, .263 / .349 / .409 in 502 PA), Turang (L, .274 / .352 / .447 in 489 PA), and Frelick (L, .278 / .342 / .421 in 442 PA) are all above-average vs RHP in 2025. The soft spots are Ortiz (R, .203 in 380 PA), Hamilton (L, .203 in 174 PA), and Perkins (S, .203 in 130 PA) -- if the lineup skews toward those bats in the bottom third, May will find outs there.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

PitchervsPAAVGOBPSLGOPSHRK
Dustin Mayvs LHB334.261.357.495.8521582
Dustin Mayvs RHB250.256.325.386.711641

May's 2025 platoon splits carry an obvious slugging asymmetry: .852 OPS vs LHB (15 HR in 334 PA) against .711 vs RHB (6 HR in 250 PA). AVG holds nearly even (.261 vs .256), but the power surrender to lefties is the exploit. The Brewers project 6 LHB in the pool -- Yelich, Turang, Frelick, Bauers, Hamilton, Mitchell -- and if the top four of those swing tonight, the LHB slug lane is Milwaukee's primary path against May.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

PitcherSplitBFIPERAKBBHR
Dustin MayAway25857.16.28502612
Dustin MayHome32675.03.2473309

Tonight's game is at Busch Stadium -- May is pitching at home, the favorable side of a wide 2025 split (3.24 ERA at home in 75.0 IP vs 6.28 on the road in 57.1 IP). K rate holds up in both contexts (73 K at home, 50 away), but he surrenders 12 HR on the road versus 9 at home in a smaller road innings pool -- the HR-suppression is where home most cleanly separates from road.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PitcherTTOPAAVGSLGOPSHRKBB
Dustin MayTTO1227.226.347.65255623
Dustin MayTTO2220.290.508.87894417
Dustin MayTTO3137.263.517.88272316

May's 2025 first pass through the order is his dominant window: .226 AVG / .347 SLG / .652 OPS with 5 HR in 227 PA. The second pass through the order is the cliff -- .290 / .508 / .878 with 9 HR in 220 PA. Third pass through the order stays elevated (.263 / .517 / .882, 7 HR in 137 PA). Innings 4-6 are where the exposure lives; anything the Cardinals want to do about May should be built to arrive on the second pass.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

RelieverIRScoredStrand%
Kyle Leahy291162.1%
JoJo Romero26388.5%
Matt Svanson261350.0%
Riley O'Brien10370.0%
Ryan Fernandez8450.0%
Michael McGreevy30100.0%

League-average IR strand rate sits around 68-72%. Romero (88.5% on 26 IR) is the elite arm to enter with runners on -- his 3-year IR strand rate is 75.9%, and the 2025 mark is well above that. Leahy (62.1%) is just below the league band; Svanson (50.0%) and Fernandez (50.0%) both sit clearly under. McGreevy's 100% is a 3-IR sample, not a rate to trust. If May exits mid-inning tonight, the fork is Romero (clean strand) vs Svanson (leak) -- who gets called decides whether inherited runs count.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)

PitcherBIPGB%FB%LD%
Dustin May37244.1%28.2%26.6%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- MIL

HitterGB AVGLD AVGFB AVG
Jake Bauers.188.765.070
Jackson Chourio.307.581.101
William Contreras.241.651.067
Sal Frelick.269.682.076
David Hamilton.226.444.049
Garrett Mitchell.200.636.182
Joey Ortiz.281.449.087
Blake Perkins.273.696.097
Gary Sánchez.2221.000.000
Brice Turang.327.609.077
Andrew Vaughn.197.659.059
Christian Yelich.245.632.125

May's career 44.1% GB rate is essentially league-average (2025 league GB% 47.1%). The Brewers' hitters have the classic line-drive-heavy AVG profile -- Bauers (.765 on LD), Frelick (.682), Contreras (.651), and Vaughn (.659) all live on line contact. Ground-ball outcomes suppress most of the pool (Vaughn .197, Bauers .188, Mitchell .200 on GB), which means the pitch-plan question is straightforward: keep the ball on the ground, cut the LD share.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

CatcherGIPERAAVGOBPSLG
Will Smith1156.04.98.255----
Dalton Rushing634.23.89.227----
Carlos Narváez421.04.71.299----
Austin Barnes212.14.38.250----
Connor Wong25.16.75.348----

The catchers above reflect May's prior-tenure history (primarily Dodgers): Will Smith (11 G, 56.0 IP, 4.98 ERA), Dalton Rushing (6 G, 34.2 IP, 3.89 ERA), and thin samples from Narvaez, Barnes, and Wong. None are Cardinals. Tonight's scheduled catcher is Jimmy Crooks (STL, batting 7th) -- he has 0 IP paired with May in this sample. That is a signal in itself: a fresh battery brings unfamiliar signal sequencing and pop-time calibration, both of which the Brewers' running game (Turang, Hamilton, Chourio, Frelick all above 75% SB success in 2025) is set up to test.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Milwaukee brings a deep speed layer against a fresh Crooks-May battery. 2025 SB / CS / success%:

-- Brice Turang: 24 / 8 / 75%

-- David Hamilton: 22 / 6 / 78.6%

-- Jackson Chourio: 21 / 7 / 75%

-- Sal Frelick: 19 / 6 / 76%

-- Christian Yelich: 16 / 6 / 72.7%

-- Joey Ortiz: 14 / 3 / 82.4%

-- Jake Bauers: 8 / 1 / 88.9%

-- Blake Perkins: 7 / 2 / 77.8%

-- William Contreras: 6 / 4 / 60%

-- Garrett Mitchell: 3 / 0 / 100%

Five Brewers cleared 15 SB last year and four of the top five are at 75% or better. Any single (or walk) from Turang, Hamilton, Chourio, or Frelick creates a real second-base threat within 1-2 pitches.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

PlayerPOSGDPEFld%
Masyn WinnSS1296430.994
Jordan WalkerRF108240.981
Lars NootbaarLF107001.000
Alec Burleson1B502740.990
Alec BurlesonLF41001.000
Alec BurlesonRF34110.983
Lars NootbaarRF23001.000
Nathan ChurchCF18001.000
Jimmy CrooksC14001.000
Iván HerreraC14010.989
Lars NootbaarCF12010.967
Nathan ChurchRF7010.833
Nathan ChurchLF5001.000
Iván HerreraLF4001.000
Alec BurlesonP100--

Winn at SS (129 G, .994, 64 DP, 3 E) is the anchor -- the range plays cleanly against May's ~44% ground-ball rate. Walker at RF (108 G, .981, 4 E) is the middling glove of the outfield card; Nootbaar in LF (107 G, 1.000) is the clean corner. Church starts in CF tonight per the lineup card -- his 18 G, 1.000 fielding sample in center is short but clean; his RF sample (7 G, .833) is where the errors have shown. Herrera's C sample (14 G, .989) is a positional footnote -- Crooks is behind the plate tonight.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Recent head-to-head: 2025 -- Cardinals 6-7. 2024 -- Cardinals 5-8. 2023 -- Cardinals 5-8. 2022 -- Cardinals 10-9. Milwaukee has held the season-series edge in three of the last four years. Busch Stadium plays as a neutral-to-pitcher-leaning venue in most run-environment framings; the available head-to-head sample does not carry a numeric park factor.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Lars Nootbaar58311920.4%6411.0%
Alec Burleson5447914.5%397.2%
Masyn Winn53710219.0%346.3%
Iván Herrera4508418.7%439.6%
Jordan Walker39612631.8%297.3%
Nathan Church651827.7%34.6%
Jimmy Crooks461737.0%00.0%

Cardinals contact/discipline (2025): Walker's 31.8% K% is the primary strikeout risk in the middle of the order. Church's 27.7% K% is elevated, and Crooks' 37.0% K% is extreme (small 46 PA sample). Nootbaar (11.0% BB%) is the on-base anchor. Burleson (14.5% K%) is the safest contact profile.

Brewers

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Brice Turang65915022.8%6610.0%
William Contreras65912018.2%8412.7%
Christian Yelich64416725.9%649.9%
Sal Frelick5908013.6%478.0%
Jackson Chourio58912120.5%305.1%
Joey Ortiz5067414.6%275.3%
Andrew Vaughn4478017.9%316.9%
Jake Bauers2185927.1%3214.7%
David Hamilton1944724.2%136.7%
Blake Perkins1714727.5%158.8%
Gary Sánchez1012726.7%44.0%
Garrett Mitchell782532.1%79.0%

Brewers contact (2025): Mitchell (32.1%), Perkins (27.5%), Bauers (27.1%), Sanchez (26.7%), and Yelich (25.9%) all sit above the ~22% league K% band. Frelick (13.6%) and Ortiz (14.6%) are the low-K contact bats. On the discipline side (2025 BB%), Bauers (14.7%) and Contreras (12.7%) are the walk-rate leaders; Sanchez (4.0%), Chourio (5.1%), and Ortiz (5.3%) are the low-walk anchors. May's 9.6% BB% in 2025 makes free passes less of a factor than usual against this discipline profile.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Alec Burleson39842.0%33.4%24.6%
Masyn Winn37639.6%34.0%26.3%
Lars Nootbaar37639.1%35.4%25.5%
Iván Herrera28552.6%21.8%25.6%
Jordan Walker23148.9%29.4%21.6%
Nathan Church3767.6%21.6%10.8%
Jimmy Crooks2737.0%44.4%18.5%

Cardinals batted-ball profile (2025): Church's 67.6% GB rate in a 37-BIP sample is extreme -- his contact plays to the infield. Herrera 52.6% GB% and Walker 48.9% GB% both live above average on the ground. Nootbaar (35.4% FB%) and Winn (34.0% FB%) are the primary FB profiles. Crooks' 44.4% FB% is unusual in a 27-BIP sample.

Brewers

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Sal Frelick45847.8%28.8%23.4%
William Contreras45453.1%22.9%24.0%
Jackson Chourio42645.1%30.3%24.6%
Brice Turang42448.3%24.5%27.1%
Christian Yelich40062.3%14.0%23.8%
Joey Ortiz40046.3%31.5%22.3%
Andrew Vaughn33444.0%30.5%25.4%
Jake Bauers12538.4%34.4%27.2%
David Hamilton12143.8%33.9%22.3%
Blake Perkins10950.5%28.4%21.1%
Gary Sánchez5945.8%37.3%16.9%
Garrett Mitchell4247.6%26.2%26.2%

Brewers 2025 batted-ball profile: Yelich (62.3% GB%) and Contreras (53.1%) headline a ground-ball-leaning top line -- against May's 44.1% GB profile, that's a compatible-shape matchup for keeping the ball in the park. Bauers (27.2% LD%) and Turang (27.1% LD%) run the highest line-drive rates in the pool -- LD contact is where the AVG numbers cluster (Bauers .765 LD AVG, Frelick .682, Turang .609). Sanchez's 37.3% FB% is his outlier profile; May's home-side HR suppression (9 HR at home in 75.0 IP vs 12 away in 57.1 IP in 2025) is the relevant counter.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

PitcherIPKK%BBBB%K/BB
Dustin May132.112321.1%569.6%2.20

2026 to date: 22.2% K%, 6.8% BB% across 84.1 IP. 2025 baseline: 21.1% K%, 9.6% BB%, 2.20 K/BB ratio across 132.1 IP. May has tightened the free passes year-over-year while holding K rate roughly flat. Against a Brewers pool that mixes elite discipline (Contreras 12.7% BB%, Bauers 14.7% BB% in 2025) with volatile contact (Mitchell 32.1% K%, Perkins 27.5%, Bauers 27.1% K%), the matchup will fork by hitter -- May can attack the low-walk names and has to work more carefully to Contreras and Bauers.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Herrera vs Drohan. Herrera is the one Cardinals bat with a proven LHP profile -- .330 / .455 / .660 vs LHP in 124 PA in 2025 with 9 HR (Section 2C). With six LHB projected around him, he is the primary lever against Drohan's platoon-side advantage.

May vs Yelich. Yelich is .271 / .356 / .493 vs RHP in 461 PA in 2025 (Section 2C) with 25 HR. May's vs-LHB line is .261 / .357 / .495 with 15 HR allowed and a .852 OPS (Section 2D). The slug lane is the exposure.

May's second pass through the order. First-pass OPS-against .652 climbs to a .878 OPS on the second pass through the order (Section 2E). Innings 4-6 are the window Milwaukee's patient bats (Contreras 12.7% BB%, Bauers 14.7% BB% in 2025) will look to reach.

Bullpen fork. Romero's 88.5% 2025 IR strand vs Svanson's 50.0% (Section 2F) is a two-arm split at the extremes of the league distribution (~68-72%). Which arm enters with runners on decides the middle innings.

X-factor -- Brewers running game vs fresh battery. Turang, Hamilton, Chourio, and Frelick each cleared 19 SB at 75%+ success in 2025 (Section 2I). Crooks pairs with May for the first time in this sample (Section 2H) -- pop-time signal-sequencing is untested.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Ivan Herrera performed against Shane Drohan in their career?

2. How has Dustin May fared against Christian Yelich in their career?

3. How has William Contreras performed against JoJo Romero in their career?

4. What are Dustin May's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Lars Nootbaar's splits vs LHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?

700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025