NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 53-32 | - | L1 |
| Cubs | 49-38 | 5.0 | W5 |
| Cardinals | 45-39 | 7.5 | W1 |
| Pirates | 44-44 | 10.5 | W1 |
| Reds | 40-46 | 13.5 | W1 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2 | ATL | Away | W 11-5 |
| Jul 1 | ATL | Away | L 1-5 |
| Jun 30 | ATL | Away | W 5-3 |
| Jun 28 | MIA | Home | W 2-1 |
| Jun 27 | MIA | Home | L 1-5 |
| Jun 26 | MIA | Home | L 0-4 |
| Jun 24 | ARI | Home | L 4-9 |
| Jun 23 | ARI | Home | L 3-4 |
| Jun 22 | ARI | Home | W 3-2 |
| Jun 21 | KC | Away | W 12-10 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Andre Pallante (R) -- Cardinals
2026 to date: 9-5, 3.83 ERA, 89.1 IP across 16 starts. 68 K, 26 BB, 1.23 WHIP, 61.1% GB% -- the ground-ball profile that defines his arsenal is fully intact and his 2026 K% (18.2%) is running about three points above his 2025 baseline (15.5%). BB% down to 7.0% from 8.7% in 2025 -- both trend lines are the right direction.
2025 baseline (for context): 15.5% K%, 8.7% BB%, 1.79 K/BB ratio across 162.2 IP. Career batted-ball profile: 61.2% GB, 18.3% FB, 19.6% LD on 515 BIP -- one of the highest GB rates among NL starters.
David Peterson (L) -- Cubs
2026 to date: 4-6, 5.86 ERA, 73.2 IP across 9 starts. 65 K, 30 BB, 1.59 WHIP. 2026 K% (19.2%) and BB% (8.8%) both sit within a point of his 2025 baseline -- the ERA jump is not being driven by a strikeout collapse or a walk spike; it's the hit rate.
2025 baseline: 20.7% K%, 9.0% BB%, 2.31 K/BB ratio across 168.2 IP. Career batted-ball profile: 55.4% GB, 16.2% FB, 27.2% LD -- like Pallante, a ground-ball tilt with a heavier line-drive rate. Peterson's platoon shape is the day's biggest structural note (Section 2D).
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-07-02)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .316 | .879 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .209 | .703 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .326 | .870 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .320 | 1.011 |
| 5 | Nootbaar | LF | L | .125 | .600 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .206 | .583 |
| 7 | Crooks | C | L | .333 | 1.052 |
| 8 | Gorman | 3B | L | -- | -- |
| 9 | Church | CF | L | .263 | .671 |
Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).
Cubs (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Bregman | 3B | R |
| Kelly | C | R |
| Swanson | SS | R |
| Happ | LF | S |
| Dean | CF | R |
| Alcántara | DH | R |
| Busch | 1B | L |
| Conforto | DH | L |
| Amaya | C | R |
| Hoerner | 2B | R |
| Ramírez | 2B | S |
| Crow-Armstrong | CF | L |
| Suzuki | RF | R |
Handedness: 8 RHB (Bregman, Kelly, Swanson, Dean, Alcántara, Amaya, Hoerner, Suzuki), 3 LHB (Busch, Conforto, Crow-Armstrong), 2 SHB (Happ, Ramírez).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury or roster-move data is available for today.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Walker | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Small sample: Jordan Walker (2 PA).
Walker's 2 PA is the only career BvP row for the Cardinals against Peterson -- effectively no career file to work from. The Cardinals are facing Peterson on his platoon shape, not on history. The vs LHP splits below (Section 2C) and Peterson's vs LHB reverse platoon (Section 2D) are the load-bearing signals.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history against Peterson in the career sample -- Pagés, Fermín, Jordan, and Velázquez have no rows.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Happ | 17 | 13 | 5 | .385 | .529 | .538 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| Dansby Swanson | 12 | 12 | 1 | .083 | .083 | .083 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 9 | 8 | 4 | .500 | .556 | .750 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Nico Hoerner | 8 | 7 | 3 | .429 | .500 | .857 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 5 | 5 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Michael Conforto | 4 | 4 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Busch | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.750 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Carson Kelly | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Bregman | 5 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .800 | .000 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Miguel Amaya | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Seiya Suzuki (9 PA), Nico Hoerner (8 PA), Pete Crow-Armstrong (5 PA), Michael Conforto (4 PA), Michael Busch (4 PA), Carson Kelly (4 PA), Alex Bregman (5 PA), Miguel Amaya (1 PA).
Ian Happ is the only truly usable sample and it's a threat: 5-for-13 with 4 walks in 17 PA (.385/.529/.538). Below Happ, four Cubs sit in eye-catching small-sample territory -- Busch 4-for-4 with 2 HR, Kelly 4-for-4, Hoerner 3-for-7 with a HR, Suzuki 4-for-8. The offsetting stories are Swanson (1-for-12 with 4 K) and Crow-Armstrong (0-for-5, 2 K), both in the more-informative sample zone. Bregman has never put a ball in play against Pallante -- 3 walks in 5 PA.
Bench note: Miguel Amaya has 1 PA against Pallante and there is no meaningful bench BvP history to draw on for the Cubs' reserves.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar L | 180 | .201 | .291 | .289 | 3 | 17 | 47 |
| Masyn Winn R | 163 | .255 | .313 | .349 | 2 | 11 | 31 |
| Alec Burleson L | 127 | .271 | .310 | .398 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| Iván Herrera R | 124 | .330 | .455 | .660 | 9 | 19 | 18 |
| Jordan Walker R | 107 | .255 | .318 | .347 | 2 | 8 | 32 |
| Nathan Church L | 14 | .417 | .417 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Jimmy Crooks L | 8 | .250 | .250 | .625 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
The 6-LHB / 3-RHB alignment against a lefty starter is a rough platoon draw on paper, but Herrera's 2025 vs LHP is the standout on either roster -- .330/.455/.660 with 9 HR in 124 PA. Nootbaar's 2025 vs LHP is the red flag on the STL side (.201 in 180 PA). Church (.417 in 14 PA) and Crooks (.250/.625 SLG in 8 PA) both carry too little sample to lean on. Burleson (.271) and Walker (.255 with .318 OBP) are functional but not standouts.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dansby Swanson R | 530 | .230 | .289 | .388 | 17 | 40 | 141 |
| Nico Hoerner R | 522 | .280 | .331 | .353 | 3 | 35 | 43 |
| Michael Busch L | 517 | .272 | .358 | .563 | 33 | 52 | 116 |
| Ian Happ B | 503 | .240 | .342 | .437 | 20 | 67 | 120 |
| Seiya Suzuki R | 492 | .244 | .311 | .476 | 24 | 44 | 129 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong L | 483 | .267 | .310 | .506 | 24 | 24 | 111 |
| Michael Conforto L | 408 | .190 | .292 | .323 | 11 | 48 | 101 |
| Alex Bregman R | 369 | .258 | .341 | .474 | 15 | 34 | 51 |
| Carson Kelly R | 321 | .238 | .321 | .408 | 13 | 32 | 70 |
| Miguel Amaya R | 82 | .312 | .341 | .545 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| Kevin Alcántara R | 5 | .400 | .400 | .400 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Justin Dean R | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Nine of the twelve Cubs listed have 300+ PA vs RHP in the 2025 sample. Busch is the heaviest bat (.272/.358/.563 with 33 HR in 517 PA) -- the power profile that made his BvP romp against Pallante specifically dangerous. Bregman (.258/.341/.474) and Suzuki (.244/.311/.476) add mid-.700 OPS threats. Hoerner is the contact anchor (.280 with just 43 K in 522 PA). Conforto is the one flagged red row (.190 in 408 PA) -- the reverse-platoon lefty is the softest bat here against Pallante. Amaya (.312 in 82 PA) and Alcántara (5 PA) are on the noisy end of the table.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | vs LHB | 347 | .266 | .329 | .434 | .763 | 10 | 60 |
| Andre Pallante | vs RHB | 368 | .275 | .345 | .429 | .774 | 11 | 51 |
| David Peterson | vs RHB | 564 | .270 | .349 | .396 | .745 | 10 | 102 |
| David Peterson | vs LHB | 164 | .225 | .272 | .285 | .557 | 1 | 49 |
Peterson is the reverse-platoon story of the day. His 2025 vs LHB line (.225/.272/.285, 1 HR in 164 PA) is a full 188 points of OPS better than his vs RHB (.745). Except six Cardinals bats -- Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church -- sit on the wrong side of that split. The offensive leverage for the Cardinals lives in the three RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn). Pallante has essentially no platoon separation (2025 .763 vs LHB, .774 vs RHB), so the Cubs' bat handedness will not disqualify anyone from the game plan; Pallante works both sides of the plate to roughly the same expected outcome.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | Away | 375 | 84.2 | 4.89 | 67 | 35 | 11 |
| Andre Pallante | Home | 340 | 78.0 | 5.42 | 44 | 27 | 10 |
| David Peterson | Away | 363 | 85.0 | 3.92 | 83 | 34 | 6 |
| David Peterson | Home | 365 | 84.2 | 3.72 | 68 | 31 | 5 |
Today's game is at Wrigley Field -- Pallante pitching away. His 2025 away ERA (4.89) is his slightly stronger context, but not dominant, with a better K/BB profile (67 K, 35 BB in 84.2 IP) than his home line (44 K, 27 BB in 78.0 IP). Peterson pitches at home with a 3.72 ERA -- 20 points of ERA better than his road split. The venue narrowly favors Peterson.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | TTO1 | 279 | .266 | .393 | .720 | 6 | 35 | 21 |
| Andre Pallante | TTO2 | 270 | .309 | .487 | .868 | 8 | 46 | 27 |
| Andre Pallante | TTO3 | 166 | .217 | .408 | .691 | 7 | 30 | 14 |
| David Peterson | TTO1 | 276 | .244 | .320 | .627 | 3 | 52 | 21 |
| David Peterson | TTO2 | 261 | .268 | .394 | .734 | 4 | 59 | 24 |
| David Peterson | TTO3 | 191 | .269 | .413 | .771 | 4 | 40 | 20 |
Pallante has a clear cliff on his second pass through the order in 2025. TTO1 line is .266/.393/.720 across 279 PA -- solid. TTO2 jumps to .309/.487/.868 across 270 PA -- a 148-point OPS climb. TTO3 pulls back to .217/.408/.691. The middle-inning stretch (innings 4-6) is where opposing lineups get their best looks. Peterson's TTO progression is a smoother climb: .627 -> .734 -> .771. His third pass in 2025 (.269/.413/.771 in 191 PA) is his weakest, but the deterioration is gradual rather than a cliff -- Peterson can pitch deeper into a game before the numbers turn.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Ryan Fernandez | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
JoJo Romero is the anchor with runners on -- 88.5% strand across 26 IR is well above the league benchmark. Svanson (50.0% on 26 IR) and Fernandez (50.0% on 8 IR) are the leaks, and Graceffo (54.5% on 11 IR) is flagged red too. Leahy sits mid-pack at 62.1%. League average strand rate: ~68-72%. If Pallante loads bases in the TTO2 window, Romero from the left side is the highest-leverage call the Cardinals have.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | 515 | 61.2% | 18.3% | 19.6% |
| David Peterson | 493 | 55.4% | 16.2% | 27.2% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- CHC
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Alcántara | .333 | .750 | -- |
| Miguel Amaya | .222 | .667 | .200 |
| Alex Bregman | .288 | .593 | .083 |
| Michael Busch | .219 | .670 | .106 |
| Michael Conforto | .183 | .621 | .075 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | .245 | .650 | .106 |
| Justin Dean | .000 | -- | -- |
| Ian Happ | .214 | .591 | .114 |
| Nico Hoerner | .284 | .618 | .095 |
| Carson Kelly | .205 | .603 | .113 |
| Seiya Suzuki | .261 | .627 | .078 |
| Dansby Swanson | .235 | .630 | .103 |
Both starters live off the ground: Pallante 61.2% GB, Peterson 55.4% GB. On the Cubs side, the elevation bats -- Crow-Armstrong (2025 34.6% GB / 41.2% FB) and Suzuki (2025 35.1% GB / 38.9% FB) -- are the structural mismatches against Pallante's ground game. Hoerner is a natural fit for the ground-ball tilt (2025 45.7% GB) -- his line-drive rate (26.6%) is where damage happens if it happens. On the Cardinals side, Herrera (2025 52.6% GB) and Walker (2025 48.9% GB) face Peterson's own ground-tilted profile -- expect the ball on the ground more often than not for the Cardinals' RHB. Alcántara's 7-BIP sample is noise.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 15 | 76.1 | 4.60 | .257 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 8 | 37.2 | 6.93 | .303 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 5 | 23.1 | 4.24 | .258 | -- | -- |
| Iván Herrera | 5 | 23.2 | 4.56 | .271 | -- | -- |
All catchers above are on the Cardinals' active roster; the sample is 2025 Cardinals-only pairings. Today's starting catcher is Jimmy Crooks (batting seventh in the projected lineup). Crooks-Pallante has 5 games / 23.1 IP together with a 4.24 ERA and .258 BAA -- functional but not a large enough sample to lean on. Pagés carries the biggest sample (15 G, 76.1 IP, 4.60 ERA) but sits on the bench. Pozo (6.93 ERA, .303 BAA) is the red-flagged row on volume. The more material battery variable today is the running game: Crooks's pop time hasn't been tested against the volume of a Crow-Armstrong / Hoerner / Swanson order.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Pete Crow-Armstrong: 35 SB, 8 CS -- 81.4% success rate. Volume leader on either roster.
Nico Hoerner: 29 SB, 6 CS -- 82.9%.
Dansby Swanson: 20 SB, 3 CS -- 87.0%. Highest success rate among the volume threats.
Ian Happ: 6 SB, 3 CS -- 66.7%. Occasional bag, modest volume.
Seiya Suzuki: 5 SB, 2 CS -- 71.4%.
Michael Busch: 4 SB, 0 CS -- 100%. Low volume.
Carson Kelly, Kevin Alcántara, Michael Conforto, Justin Dean: 1 SB each at 100%. Alex Bregman 1-for-2 (50.0%).
The Cardinals do not appear in the baserunning sample -- no STL bat with meaningful 2025 SB volume in this dataset. The running game is a one-way threat this afternoon.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 107 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Lars Nootbaar | RF | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Jimmy Crooks | C | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Lars Nootbaar | CF | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.967 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Winn's .994 fielding percentage across 129 games at SS (3 errors, 64 DP) is the defensive anchor behind a ground-ball starter -- a good pairing for Pallante's 61.2% GB profile. Walker's 4 errors at RF in 108 games (.981) is the one soft spot, and Peterson's ground-ball tilt means fewer balls hit into right field for him to work with. Wetherholt starting at 2B today has no 2025 defensive sample in this dataset, and Crooks (14 G at C, .1.000) plays a live pop-time role given the Cubs' running game.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-head (Cardinals record): 2025 5-8, 2024 7-6, 2023 5-8, 2022 13-6. The Cubs have taken the season series in three of the last four years, with 2022 the outlier. The available head-to-head data does not carry a numeric park factor. Wrigley Field plays historically as a hitter-leaning venue with heavy wind-dependence -- treat that as qualitative context until the head-to-head sample builds out.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar | 583 | 119 | 20.4% | 64 | 11.0% |
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 46 | 17 | 37.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Contact profile: Walker's 2025 31.8% K% is the standout swing-and-miss risk on the Cardinals side. Crooks (37.0% K%) and Church (27.7% K%) both post high K rates from small 2025 samples. Burleson (14.5% K%) is the contact anchor.
Cubs
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Happ | 663 | 151 | 22.8% | 87 | 13.1% |
| Seiya Suzuki | 651 | 164 | 25.2% | 71 | 10.9% |
| Nico Hoerner | 649 | 49 | 7.6% | 39 | 6.0% |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 647 | 155 | 24.0% | 29 | 4.5% |
| Dansby Swanson | 645 | 168 | 26.0% | 47 | 7.3% |
| Michael Busch | 592 | 139 | 23.5% | 56 | 9.5% |
| Alex Bregman | 495 | 70 | 14.1% | 51 | 10.3% |
| Michael Conforto | 486 | 121 | 24.9% | 56 | 11.5% |
| Carson Kelly | 421 | 80 | 19.0% | 45 | 10.7% |
| Miguel Amaya | 103 | 22 | 21.4% | 4 | 3.9% |
| Kevin Alcántara | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 1 | 8.3% |
| Justin Dean | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Cubs contact profile: Hoerner is the elite contact bat -- 2025 7.6% K% is the lowest on either roster. Suzuki (25.2% K%) and Swanson (26.0% K%) are the top whiff profiles; Conforto (24.9%) and PCA (24.0%) also sit above the 22.1% league benchmark. Alcántara (33.3%) and Dean (50.0%) are tiny-sample whiff rates.
Cubs walk-rate profile: Happ leads with 13.1% BB% -- above league average by 4 points and the top on-base engine of the lineup. Conforto (11.5% BB%) and Bregman (10.3% BB%) round out the patient bats. PCA (4.5% BB%) and Amaya (3.9% BB%) sit at the bottom of the discipline distribution.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Lars Nootbaar | 376 | 39.1% | 35.4% | 25.5% |
| Iván Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 27 | 37.0% | 44.4% | 18.5% |
Church's 2025 67.6% GB% (37 BIP) is the extreme ground-ball rate in either lineup -- against Peterson's 55.4% GB tendency, worm-burner leans on both sides of the matchup. Herrera (52.6% GB%) and Walker (48.9% GB%) are also ground-tilted. Crooks skews the other way -- 2025 44.4% FB% is the elevation profile on the Cardinals side, on a small 27-BIP sample.
Cubs
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner | 571 | 45.7% | 27.7% | 26.6% |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 413 | 34.6% | 41.2% | 24.2% |
| Ian Happ | 409 | 38.9% | 34.2% | 26.9% |
| Dansby Swanson | 407 | 45.0% | 28.5% | 26.5% |
| Seiya Suzuki | 393 | 35.1% | 38.9% | 26.0% |
| Michael Busch | 369 | 39.6% | 35.8% | 24.7% |
| Alex Bregman | 353 | 41.4% | 34.3% | 24.4% |
| Carson Kelly | 287 | 40.8% | 33.8% | 25.4% |
| Michael Conforto | 285 | 44.2% | 32.6% | 23.2% |
| Miguel Amaya | 70 | 38.6% | 35.7% | 25.7% |
| Kevin Alcántara | 7 | 42.9% | 0.0% | 57.1% |
| Justin Dean | 1 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Crow-Armstrong (2025 34.6% GB / 41.2% FB) and Suzuki (2025 35.1% GB / 38.9% FB) are the true elevation bats -- both are structural mismatches for Pallante's 61.2% GB profile if they can lift the ball. Everyone else on the Cubs sits in a normal 38-45% GB band. Alcántara and Dean are single-digit BIP -- noise. Hoerner's 2025 line-drive rate (26.6%) is the sneaky risk with his contact skill.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Peterson | 168.2 | 150 | 20.7% | 65 | 9.0% | 2.31 |
| Andre Pallante | 162.2 | 111 | 15.5% | 62 | 8.7% | 1.79 |
Peterson holds the K/BB edge on paper. 2026 to date: 19.2% K%, 8.8% BB%. 2025 baseline: 20.7% K%, 9.0% BB%, 2.31 K/BB. Pallante is thinner across the board -- 2026 to date: 18.2% K%, 7.0% BB%. 2025 baseline: 15.5% K%, 8.7% BB%, 1.79 K/BB. Pallante's 2026 K% is running about three points above his 2025 baseline while his BB% is down more than a point -- both trend lines are the right direction. But even with the improvement, his profile is below-average whiff paired with a below-average walk rate.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Cardinals LHB vs Peterson (structural edge). Six left-handed bats meet a lefty starter with a reverse platoon -- Peterson's 2025 vs LHB line (Section 2D) is .225/.272/.285 with 1 HR in 164 PA, an .557 OPS. The Cardinals will look to attack Peterson early with Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, and Church. If Peterson lasts through the third inning without significant damage, that is a signal that the reverse-platoon edge is dormant today.
Michael Busch vs Pallante (threat). Busch is 4-for-4 career against Pallante with 2 HR (Section 2B). His 2025 vs RHP line (Section 2C) is .272/.358/.563 with 33 HR in 517 PA -- the profile that makes the 4-PA sample against Pallante specifically the kind of threat that doesn't dismiss as noise. Busch bats third or fourth for the Cubs today.
Ivan Herrera vs LHP (Cardinals X-factor). Herrera's 2025 vs LHP line (Section 2C) is .330/.455/.660 with 9 HR in 124 PA -- the standout platoon bat on either roster. Batting second, Herrera sees Peterson early and repeatedly, and he is the only Cardinals RHB in the top four who gets the platoon flip on Peterson's reverse split.
Pallante TTO2 collision (bullpen fork). Pallante's 2025 TTO2 line is .309/.487/.868 OPS across 270 PA (Section 2E), a 148-point OPS climb off TTO1. The second pass through the Cubs order arrives in the middle innings, and Romero's 88.5% strand rate (Section 2F) is the highest-leverage bullpen answer if Pallante hands off with runners on.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has JJ Wetherholt performed against David Peterson in their career?
2. How has Andre Pallante fared against Michael Busch in their career?
3. How has Iván Herrera performed against David Peterson in their career?
4. What are Andre Pallante's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Iván Herrera's splits vs LHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Wrigley Field in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025