YESTERDAY

SF   3 0 4 1 0 0 0 1 1 -- 10
STL  1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 -- 3

San Francisco won last night's game 2 of 3, 10-3, breaking open a 3-0 first-inning lead -- built on a Bryce Eldridge two-run homer and a Turner Hill RBI single -- that the Cardinals never overcame; Alec Burleson's 23rd home run was St. Louis's lone early response, and the Cardinals finished 5-for-31 with 2 walks.

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Brewers94-57-W1
Cubs84-6810.5L1
Pirates75-7619.0L1
Cardinals75-7719.5L1
Reds70-8124.0L2

NL WEST STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Dodgers92-59-W2
Padres82-6910.0L1
D-backs80-7212.5L1
Giants63-8929.5W1
Rockies56-9536.0W1

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

DateOppH/AResult
Sep 15SFHomeL 3-10
Sep 14SFHomeW 2-1
Sep 13CWSHomeW 3-1
Sep 12CWSHomeL 5-6
Sep 11CWSHomeW 7-3
Sep 9SFAwayL 6-7
Sep 8SFAwayL 1-2
Sep 7SFAwayL 4-5 (11)
Sep 6COLAwayW 10-8
Sep 5COLAwayL 7-10

STARTING PITCHERS

Matthew Liberatore (LHP, Cardinals): Liberatore carries a 5-14 record, a 5.53 ERA, and a 1.49 WHIP across 29 starts and 143.1 innings this season, with 146 strikeouts and 52 walks. He ranks 110th of 122 NL pitchers with at least 60 innings in ERA and 112th in WHIP -- both in the poor tier by this season's cutoffs. His strikeout rate (23.2%) sits near the middle of that group (51st of 122), and his walk rate (8.3%) is average (65th of 122). The ground-ball rate tells a harder story: 40.2%, 107th of 122 NL pitchers with at least 60 innings. He has pitched into a third pass in 26 of 29 starts; in the 26 starts where he reached a third time through the order, hitters posted a 1.126 OPS against him in that third pass, compared with a .700 OPS in the second pass of those same starts.

Anthony Molina (RHP, Giants): Molina is 3-1 with a 5.24 ERA across 3 starts and 22.1 innings, with 19 strikeouts, 5 walks, and a 1.25 WHIP. His 2026 sample is small at this point in the season; the ERA and WHIP figures reflect a limited audition of three outings.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Yesterday's lineup from last night)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS2026 Slash
1TorresLFL.250.669.250/.322/.362
2HerreraDHR.238.742.242/.355/.374
3Burleson1BL.363.949.285/.352/.472
4WalkerRFR.289.951.280/.335/.484
5BernalCS.4441.252SSS
6SaggeseSSR.250.651.267/.319/.412
7ChurchCFL.290.756.250/.297/.370
8WinnSSR.256.690.237/.311/.323
9Fermín2BR.221.578.242/.306/.353

Handedness: 5 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Saggese, Winn, Fermín), 3 LHB (Torres, Burleson, Church), 1 SHB (Bernal).

Giants (Yesterday's lineup from last night)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS2026 Slash
1GilbertRFL.265.759.231/.320/.375
2Eldridge1BL.284.756.272/.363/.465
3CoxCFR.300.783.278/.314/.435
4LeeDHL.278.750.276/.318/.400
5Basabe2BR.200.711.202/.262/.353
6HillLFL.333.789SSS
7CavanaughCL.250.666.235/.327/.280
8McCrayRFL.083.237SSS
9KossSSR.194.436.240/.286/.339

Handedness: 3 RHB (Cox, Basabe, Koss), 6 LHB (Gilbert, Eldridge, Lee, Hill, Cavanaugh, McCray).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Cardinals

Andre Pallante -- 2026-09-04: St. Louis Cardinals activated RHP Andre Pallante from the 15-day injured list.

Masyn Winn -- 2026-09-08: St. Louis Cardinals activated SS Masyn Winn from the 10-day injured list.

Giants

Keaton Winn -- 2026-09-03: San Francisco Giants transferred RHP Keaton Winn from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Right elbow neuritis.

Jesus Rodriguez -- 2026-09-04: San Francisco Giants placed C Jesus Rodriguez on the 60-day injured list. Right elbow neuritis.

Andre Pallante's return from the 15-day injured list has him back in the rotation -- he started yesterday and covered 5.0 innings. Masyn Winn is back at shortstop after coming off the 10-day injured list September 8, restoring the Cardinals' regular infield alignment.

San Francisco is without Keaton Winn and Jesus Rodriguez, both transferred or placed on the 60-day injured list earlier this month with right elbow neuritis.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Masyn Winn110.000.000.000000
Iván Herrera1111.0001.0001.000000
Alec Burleson110.000.000.000000

Small sample: Masyn Winn (1 PA), Iván Herrera (1 PA), Alec Burleson (1 PA).

The career BvP history against Anthony Molina is effectively a blind matchup: only three Cardinals in tonight's lineup have faced him, each in a single plate appearance. Masyn Winn and Alec Burleson went 0-for-1; Iván Herrera went 1-for-1. At 1 PA each, none of these samples carries signal -- they are noise, not pattern. No batter meets both danger thresholds (10 PA and a .400 average against him).

No significant bench BvP history. With career BvP this thin, the more informative read on the matchup comes from Molina's 2026 platoon work against left-handed and right-handed batters, and from each Cardinals batter's own season tendencies.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Grant McCray110.000.000.000001

Small sample: Grant McCray (1 PA).

Only one San Francisco Giants batter carries any career history against Matthew Liberatore: Grant McCray, who struck out in his lone plate appearance. The rest of tonight's lineup has no career BvP on file against Liberatore, so no further figures apply.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK2026 PA2026 AVG2026 OPSLeads
Alec Burleson L419.296.353.478153259441.316.943leads 2026
Masyn Winn R374.251.309.36872371378.221.598leads 2026
Iván Herrera R328.268.343.399102466470.240.707leads 2026
Jordan Walker R289.200.263.29142194459.275.788leads 2026
Thomas Saggese R227.254.305.3401156398.269.651leads 2026
José Fermín R59.280.379.420178193.228.593leads 2026
Nathan Church L51.114.216.1821314340.256.683leads 2026

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs RHP (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the prior-season comparison; below it, 2025 leads.

Anthony Molina enters as a right-hander, which puts the Cardinals' three left-handed bats -- Bryan Torres, Alec Burleson, and Nathan Church -- on the favorable side of the platoon. Burleson is the headline: his 2026 OPS vs. right-handed pitching is .943, 6th of 226 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching (league average .702). He is stronger against right-handed pitching this season (.943 OPS vs. .566 against left-handers), and his 2025 line against right-handers (.296/.353/.478 across 419 PA) points the same way. Torres's 2026 vs.-RHP OPS is .723 (102nd of 226 NL batters; league average .702) across 143 PA. Church's 2026 vs.-RHP OPS is .683 (132nd of 226 NL batters; league average .702) across 340 PA, a below-average figure that limits the group's collective platoon lift.

The five right-handed bats face Molina from the handedness-neutral side. Walker leads that group: his 2026 OPS vs. right-handed pitching is .788, 52nd of 226 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances (league average .702). Iván Herrera's 2026 vs.-RHP OPS is .707, 122nd of 226 NL batters (league average .702). Masyn Winn's 2026 vs.-RHP OPS is .598, 182nd of 226 NL batters (league average .702). José Fermín's 2026 vs.-RHP OPS is .593, 185th of 226 NL batters (league average .702). Thomas Saggese's 2026 vs.-RHP OPS is .651, 156th of 226 NL batters (league average .702). Leo Bernal bats switch and his 2026 vs.-RHP sample is 42 plate appearances, too small to report a reliable split rate.

Molina's 2026 sample against left-handed batters is 51 batters faced, below the 60-BF floor; last season he allowed a 1.254 OPS against left-handed batters, compared with .829 against right-handed batters. His 2026 sample against right-handed batters is 43 batters faced, also below the floor. The left-handed Cardinals batters carry the platoon edge on the page, with Burleson as the clear standout.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK2026 PA2026 AVG2026 OPSLeads
Christian Koss R47.279.340.302021752SSSSSSleads 2025
Drew Gilbert L19.111.158.16701548SSSSSSleads 2025
Grant McCray L4.000.000.00000223SSSSSSleads 2025
Bryce Eldridge L2.000.000.000000140.296.875leads 2026

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs LHP (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.

Six of San Francisco Giants' nine starters bat left-handed against Matthew Liberatore today. Among those six, Bryce Eldridge is the one whose 2026 sample vs. left-handed pitching clears the floor: .875 OPS across 140 plate appearances, ranking 24th of 155 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs. left-handed pitching (.875; league average .737). The five other left-handed starters -- Drew Gilbert (48 PA), Turner Hill (25 PA), Drew Cavanaugh (17 PA), Grant McCray (23 PA), and Jung Hoo Lee (169 PA) -- each carry 2026 samples below the 60-plate-appearance display floor for this split; their 2025 history vs. left-handed pitching is shown in the table where available.

Of the three right-handed starters, Jonah Cox ranks 58th of 155 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs. left-handed pitching in OPS (.781; league average .737) across 70 PA. Osleivis Basabe's 2026 sample against left-handed pitching is 54 plate appearances, below the floor. Christian Koss's 2026 sample is 52 plate appearances, below the floor.

Liberatore's 2026 platoon split is narrow: .832 OPS allowed against left-handed batters vs. .822 OPS allowed against right-handed batters across 156 and 472 batters faced, respectively -- a marginal gap that offers San Francisco Giants' left-heavy lineup no meaningful platoon edge against him.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

PitchervsPAAVGOBPSLGOPSHRK2026 BF2026 AVG2026 OPSLeads
Matthew Liberatorevs RHB515.265.304.426.7301693472.285.822leads 2026
Matthew Liberatorevs LHB133.274.348.410.758329156.286.832leads 2026
Anthony Molinavs LHB77.400.440.8141.2548951SSSSSSleads 2025
Anthony Molinavs RHB83.308.329.500.82941543SSSSSSleads 2025

Matthew Liberatore enters tonight facing a San Francisco Giants lineup that sends six left-handed bats to the plate -- the side where his 2026 figures run slightly worse. Against right-handed batters this season, Liberatore has allowed a .822 OPS across 472 batters faced, ranking 199th of 236 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs right-handed batters (league average .700). Against left-handed batters, his 2026 mark is .832 OPS across 156 batters faced, ranking 174th of 223 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs left-handed batters (league average .716). Both splits lead 2026; the Giants' left-heavy lineup -- Drew Gilbert, Bryce Eldridge, Jung Hoo Lee, Turner Hill, Drew Cavanaugh, and Grant McCray all bat left -- lands on the side that runs only marginally worse, a gap that offers San Francisco's lineup no meaningful platoon edge against him.

Anthony Molina faces a Cardinals order that carries five right-handed bats and three left-handed bats, with Leo Bernal switch-hitting. His 2026 sample against both sides -- 51 batters faced vs left-handed batters, 43 vs right-handed batters -- falls below the 60-batters-faced floor on each side, so the 2026 figures carry no split rate. Last season, Molina allowed a 1.254 OPS against left-handed batters across 77 plate appearances, ranking 250th of 250 2025 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs left-handed batters (league average .718), and .829 OPS against right-handed batters across 83 plate appearances, ranking 235th of 281 2025 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs right-handed batters (league average .709). The Cardinals' three left-handed bats -- Bryan Torres, Alec Burleson, and Nathan Church -- face the side that was historically far more permissive for Molina last season.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

PitcherSplitBFIPERAKBBHR2026 IP2026 ERA
Matthew LiberatoreAway33476.04.0359261170.05.27
Matthew LiberatoreHome31475.23.696314873.15.77
Anthony MolinaAway5010.010.8051513.0SSS
Anthony MolinaHome11024.25.1119579.1SSS

Matthew Liberatore takes the mound tonight at Busch Stadium, where he is the home starter. His 2026 home ERA of 5.77 ranks 160th of 188 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched at home (league average 3.92). That is the weaker side of his venue split: road starts carry a 5.27 ERA this season (.753 OPS allowed, compared with .888 OPS allowed at home), ranking 147th of 181 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched on the road (league average 4.05). The 2025 historical rows show home and road ERAs of 3.69 and 4.03, respectively, across comparable innings totals.

Anthony Molina arrives as the road starter. His 2026 home ERA of 8.68 across 43 batters faced and his 2026 road ERA of 2.77 across 51 batters faced are each too small to rank reliably; the 2025 historical rows show a home ERA of 5.11 and a road ERA of 10.80. Molina's 2025 home ERA of 5.11 ranks 172nd of 225 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched at home (league average 4.00).

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PitcherTTOPAAVGSLGOPSHRKBB2026 BF2026 AVG2026 OPS
Matthew LiberatoreTTO1264.237.376.65785615261.252.738
Matthew LiberatoreTTO2252.310.511.87194017256.285.789
Matthew LiberatoreTTO3132.244.353.6412268111.3741.125
Anthony MolinaTTO1129.320.516.855624327SSSSSS
Anthony MolinaTTO225----25 PA30227SSSSSS
Anthony MolinaTTO36----6 PA3015SSSSSS

Matthew Liberatore has pitched into a third pass in 26 of 29 starts. In the 26 starts he pitched into a third pass, hitters posted a .700 OPS on the second pass -- 234 PA. From the third pass on in those same starts: 1.126 OPS -- 111 PA. Pooled within-game delta, third pass and beyond minus second pass, survival starts only: +.426 OPS. Early hooks: 3 starts, 22 PA. Anthony Molina has pitched into a third pass in 2 of 3 starts. In the 2 starts he pitched into a third pass, the second-pass sample is 18 PA. From the third pass on in those same starts: 5 PA. Early hooks: 1 start, 9 PA. Per-pass rate stats resting on fewer than 50 PA render as their PA count, never as a decimal; 2026 companion columns carry their own 60 BF floor (below floor renders SSS).

Matthew Liberatore has pitched into a third pass in 26 of his 29 starts this season. In those 26 starts, hitters posted a .700 OPS against him in the second pass across 234 PA. From the third pass on in those same starts, they posted a 1.126 OPS across 111 PA -- a within-game jump of .426 OPS. His 2026 companion columns confirm the pattern: a .738 OPS allowed in the first pass (261 BF), .789 in the second (256 BF), and 1.125 in the third (111 BF). Looking back at last season (2025), his first-pass .657 OPS allowed ranked 120th of 344 NL pitchers with at least 50 PA in the first time through the order (TTO pass 1) (league average .734); his second-pass .871 OPS allowed ranked 107th of 132 NL pitchers with at least 50 PA in TTO pass 2 (league average .742); and his third-pass .641 OPS allowed ranked 16th of 84 NL pitchers with at least 50 PA in TTO pass 3 (league average .781) -- a 2025 third-pass figure that looks strong, but his 2026 third-pass 1.125 OPS tells a different story this year.

Anthony Molina has pitched into a third pass in 2 of his 3 starts. His 2025 first-pass sample of 129 PA yielded a .855 OPS allowed, ranking 275th of 344 NL pitchers with at least 50 PA in TTO pass 1 (league average .734). His 2025 second-pass sample of 25 PA and third-pass sample of 6 PA are too small to report split rates reliably. His 2026 first-, second-, and third-pass samples each sit below the 60 BF display floor, carrying no companion rates tonight.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

RelieverIRScoredStrand%2026 IP2026 ERA2026 WHIP
Kyle Leahy291162.1%135.03.331.31
Gordon Graceffo11554.5%76.02.611.04
Riley O'Brien10370.0%61.04.131.28
Michael McGreevy30100.0%160.03.831.24

2025 league average strand rate was 68.8%, per the 2025 Neon proxy baseline. Kyle Leahy leads Cardinals relievers in inherited-runner volume with 29 inherited across 21 entries; his 2026 line of 135.0 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.31 WHIP gives current-season context to his 2025 strand rate of 62.1%, which sits below that baseline. Gordon Graceffo's 2025 strand rate of 54.5% across 11 inherited runners is the lowest in the group; his 2026 form reads 76.0 IP, 2.61 ERA, 1.04 WHIP. Riley O'Brien stranded 70.0% of his 10 inherited runners in 2025, just clearing the baseline, and carries a 2026 line of 61.0 IP, 4.13 ERA, 1.28 WHIP. Michael McGreevy inherited only 3 runners in 2025 and allowed none to score, a 100.0% strand rate on a small sample; his 2026 line stands at 160.0 IP, 3.83 ERA, 1.24 WHIP.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)

PitcherBIPGB%FB%LD%
Matthew Liberatore46339.1%31.3%27.6%
Anthony Molina11445.6%30.7%23.7%

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- SF

HitterGB AVGLD AVGFB AVG2026 GO+AO2026 GO%
Bryce Eldridge------16445.7%
Drew Gilbert------18750.3%
Christian Koss.250----9156.0%
Grant McCray------38SSS

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

2025 GB% types every ball in play; 2026 GO% is the ground-out share of outs in play (GO / (GO+AO), statsapi) -- different measures, both labeled. 2026 GO% reads "SSS" below 50 GO+AO; at or above it the 2026 figure leads and the 2025 GB% is last season's.

Matthew Liberatore's 2025 contact mix leans fly ball and line drive: a 39.1% ground-ball rate, 31.3% fly-ball rate, and 27.6% line-drive rate across 463 balls in play last season. Anthony Molina ran a heavier ground-ball shape in 2025 -- 45.6% grounders across 114 balls in play -- with a lower fly-ball share (30.7%) and line-drive share (23.7%).

Among the four Giants in the table, three carry enough 2026 outs in play to cite this season's ground-out share. Christian Koss leads the group at 56.0% (91 GO+AO); his 2025 ground-ball average on 64 grounders was .250. Drew Gilbert sits at 50.3% (187 GO+AO) and Bryce Eldridge at 45.7% (164 GO+AO). Grant McCray's 2026 sample of 38 GO+AO is too small to report a rate; his 2025 batted-ball averages are likewise below the floor.

Liberatore's fly-ball lean means more balls staying in the air against a lineup where Koss converts ground contact at the highest rate of the four. Molina's heavier ground-ball profile sets a different contact expectation when St. Louis bats, though his 114-BIP 2025 sample is a single-season window.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

CatcherGIPERAAVGOBPSLG
Pedro Pagés1575.23.93.279----
Yohel Pozo1263.24.10.259----
Jimmy Crooks211.02.45.225----

Yohel Pozo and Jimmy Crooks, who each caught Matthew Liberatore in 2025, are not on the current Cardinals roster. Leo Bernal, tonight's catcher, has no innings on file with Liberatore -- a fresh battery pairing by the 2025 record. Pedro Pagés caught Liberatore in 15 games and 75.2 innings in 2025, posting a 3.93 ERA and .279 average against; he is on the active roster but not slotted behind the plate tonight. Bernal steps in with no shared history in the table to draw on.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

San Francisco's baserunning group carries the more active 2026 threat. Grant McCray leads tonight's lineup with 6 stolen bases and 0 caught stealing this season, though his 6 attempts fall short of the floor for a published rate. Christian Koss has 5 stolen bases and 0 caught stealing in 2026 (5 attempts, below the rate floor). Drew Gilbert is 2-for-6 on steal attempts this season -- 2 SB, 4 CS. Osleivis Basabe has 2 SB and 2 CS in 4 attempts. Bryce Eldridge has 1 SB and 0 CS in a single attempt this year.

From the 2025 sample: Christian Koss went 4 SB / 1 CS (5 attempts, below the 10-attempt floor for a rate). Drew Gilbert went 1 SB / 1 CS (2 attempts, below the floor).

Behind the plate for St. Louis tonight, Leo Bernal has allowed 13 stolen bases against 3 caught stealing in 16 attempts this season -- too few attempts for a reliable rate. Pedro Pages, St. Louis's primary catcher, has thrown out 30.9% of runners this year (17 CS in 55 attempts across 75 games).

For San Francisco, Drew Cavanaugh has a 19.6% caught-stealing rate this season (9 CS in 46 attempts across 47 games). Andrew Knizner has allowed 14 stolen bases and caught 1 in 15 attempts -- too few for a published rate; Cavanaugh's 19.6% is the season mark for this club.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

PlayerPOSGDPEFld%
Masyn WinnSS1296430.994
Jordan WalkerRF108240.981
Alec Burleson1B502740.990
Alec BurlesonLF41001.000
Thomas Saggese2B352440.973
Alec BurlesonRF34110.983
Thomas SaggeseSS33710.988
Thomas Saggese3B18020.939
Nathan ChurchCF18001.000
José Fermín2B15501.000
Iván HerreraC14010.989
Nathan ChurchRF7010.833
José Fermín3B5001.000
Nathan ChurchLF5001.000
José FermínLF4001.000
Iván HerreraLF4001.000
José FermínRF1001.000
Alec BurlesonP100--

The Cardinals' infield tonight features two players with substantial 2025 fielding samples at their projected positions. Masyn Winn, starting at shortstop, posted a .994 fielding percentage across 129 games at short in 2025, committing 3 errors while turning 64 double plays. Thomas Saggese, projected at shortstop in tonight's lineup card, played 35 games at second base in 2025 (.973 Fld%, 4 errors, 24 double plays) and 33 games at shortstop (.988 Fld%, 1 error, 7 double plays). Alec Burleson at first base carried a .990 fielding percentage in 50 games at that position in 2025, with 27 double plays and 4 errors; his 41-game sample in left field last year was errorless (1.000 Fld%). Jordan Walker's 2025 right field record shows .981 across 108 games with 4 errors and 2 double plays. Nathan Church has handled center field this year in 18 games without an error (1.000 Fld%). José Fermín's 15-game sample at second base in 2025 was also errorless (1.000 Fld%). Iván Herrera is in the lineup tonight as the designated hitter; his 14-game catching sample from 2025 shows a .989 fielding percentage with 1 error, though that record does not apply to tonight's role. Leo Bernal, starting at catcher, has no 2025 fielding record in this table; no defensive figures from it apply to his start tonight.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

The Cardinals and San Francisco Giants have split their recent meetings unevenly across the 2022-2025 stretch, with St. Louis going 4-2 in 2025, 5-1 in 2024, 1-6 in 2023, and 4-3 in 2022. Today's series finale arrives with the clubs tied 1-1 in this three-game set at Busch Stadium.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%2026 PA2026 K%2026 BB%
Alec Burleson5447914.5%397.2%63717.3%8.6%
Masyn Winn53710219.0%346.3%51121.1%8.8%
Iván Herrera4508418.7%439.6%67718.3%10.8%
Jordan Walker39612631.8%297.3%62625.4%7.3%
Thomas Saggese2958328.1%165.4%14425.0%7.6%
José Fermín701014.3%811.4%34713.3%8.4%
Nathan Church651827.7%34.6%43617.2%5.7%

Jordan Walker's 2025 K% of 31.8% stands as the lineup's highest strikeout mark against the 22.1% league average. His 2026 K% of 25.4% across 626 PA shows improvement, though contact remains the pressure point in his profile. Thomas Saggese posted a 2025 K% of 28.1% and BB% of 5.4% across 295 PA; his 2026 figures of 25.0% K% and 7.6% BB% across 144 PA reflect a small sample. Nathan Church's 2025 BB% of 4.6% across 65 PA was the lineup's thinnest walk rate; his 2026 BB% of 5.7% across 436 PA sits below the 8.9% league average. Alec Burleson provides the clearest contact floor: 2025 K% of 14.5% across 544 PA, with a 2026 K% of 17.3% across 637 PA -- the lowest strikeout rate in the lineup both seasons.

Giants

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%2026 PA2026 K%2026 BB%
Christian Koss1914523.6%94.7%18623.1%4.8%
Drew Gilbert1092018.3%76.4%37418.2%9.6%
Bryce Eldridge371335.1%718.9%44326.6%12.9%
Grant McCray261142.3%27.7%8429.8%11.9%

Six of the nine Giants hitters in tonight's lineup bat left-handed against Matthew Liberatore, who is stronger against right-handed batters this season (.822 OPS allowed, compared with .832 OPS allowed against left-handed batters). Bryce Eldridge's 2025 K% of 35.1% across 37 PA came with an 18.9% BB% -- the table's highest walk rate in that sample; his 2026 K% of 26.6% across 443 PA remains above the 22.1% league average, while his 2026 BB% of 12.9% is well clear of the 8.9% league figure. Grant McCray's 2025 K% of 42.3% across 26 PA is a small sample; his 2026 K% of 29.8% across 84 PA is the group's highest this season. Christian Koss carries a 2025 BB% of 4.7% across 191 PA and a 2026 BB% of 4.8% across 186 PA -- both well below the 8.9% league average. Drew Gilbert's 2026 K% of 18.2% across 374 PA is the lineup's lowest contact risk against Liberatore tonight.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%2026 GO+AO2026 GO%
Alec Burleson39842.0%33.4%24.6%30351.8%
Masyn Winn37639.6%34.0%26.3%24446.3%
Iván Herrera28552.6%21.8%25.6%31355.9%
Jordan Walker23148.9%29.4%21.6%25748.6%
Thomas Saggese18941.8%29.6%28.6%6243.5%
José Fermín46------19444.3%
Nathan Church37------23247.4%

Anthony Molina allowed ground balls on 45.6% of balls in play last season across 114 BIP, with fly balls at 30.7% and line drives at 23.7%. Against that shape, Iván Herrera's 52.6% ground-ball rate (285 BIP, 2025) and Jordan Walker's 48.9% (231 BIP, 2025) fit squarely into his tendency. Herrera's 2026 GO% of 55.9% on 313 ground-outs and air-outs leads the Cardinals group; Walker's 2026 GO% is 48.6% on 257. Alec Burleson brings a flatter 2025 profile -- 42.0% GB%, 33.4% FB% -- and his 2026 GO% of 51.8% on 303 outs in play. Masyn Winn (39.6% GB%, 34.0% FB%, 376 BIP, 2025; 2026 GO% 46.3% on 244) and Thomas Saggese (41.8% GB%, 29.6% FB%, 28.6% LD%, 189 BIP, 2025; 2026 GO% 43.5% on 62) round out the publishable rows. José Fermín's 46 BIP last season is too small to report split rates reliably; his 2026 GO% is 44.3% on 194 outs in play. Nathan Church's 37 BIP last season is too small to report split rates reliably; his 2026 GO% is 47.4% on 232 outs in play.

Giants

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%2026 GO+AO2026 GO%
Christian Koss12451.6%24.2%24.2%9156.0%
Drew Gilbert7647.4%27.6%25.0%18750.3%
Bryce Eldridge15------16445.7%
Grant McCray11------38SSS

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

2025 GB% types every ball in play; 2026 GO% is the ground-out share of outs in play (GO / (GO+AO), statsapi) -- different measures, both labeled. 2026 GO% reads "SSS" below 50 GO+AO; at or above it the 2026 figure leads and the 2025 GB% is last season's.

Matthew Liberatore allowed ground balls on 39.1% of balls in play last season across 463 BIP -- a fly-ball-leaning profile (31.3% FB%, 27.6% LD%). Six of the nine Giants starters tonight hit left-handed, the side against which Liberatore's 2026 OPS allowed is .832 (156 BF) versus .822 against right-handers (472 BF). Among Giants with publishable batted-ball profiles, Christian Koss ground-balled at 51.6% last season (124 BIP), placing him as the heaviest ground-ball hitter in the group; his 2026 GO% is 56.0% on 91 outs in play, leading the group. Drew Gilbert ground-balled at 47.4% (76 BIP, 2025); his 2026 GO% is 50.3% on 187 outs in play. Bryce Eldridge's 15 BIP last season is too small to report split rates reliably; his 2026 GO% is 45.7% on 164 outs in play. Grant McCray's 11 BIP last season is too small to report split rates reliably; his 2026 GO% is not reported (38 outs in play, below the 50-out floor). Jonah Cox, Jung Hoo Lee, Osleivis Basabe, Turner Hill, Drew Cavanaugh are not in the batted-ball table. Liberatore's 2026 ground-ball rate of 40.2% is below the league average of 47.0%, consistent with the contact shape his starters tend to produce.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

PitcherIPKK%BBBB%K/BB
Matthew Liberatore151.212218.8%406.2%3.05
Anthony Molina34.22415.0%63.8%4.00

The table above reflects 2025 figures. Matthew Liberatore's 2026 strikeout rate of 23.2% ranks 51st of 122 NL pitchers with at least 60 innings, an average mark by this season's cutoff (league average 22.6%); his 2026 walk rate of 8.3% ranks 65th of the same 122, also average (league average 8.3%). His 2025 line of 18.8% K% and 6.2% BB% across 151.2 innings and a 3.05 K/BB shows tighter contact suppression than his current season. Anthony Molina's 2025 sample of 34.2 innings carries a 15.0% strikeout rate, a 3.8% walk rate, and a 4.00 K/BB -- a small-sample baseline; his 2026 work through three starts covers 22.1 innings with a 20.2% strikeout rate and a 5.3% walk rate.

KEY MATCHUPS

Liberatore TTO3 cliff. Matthew Liberatore has pitched into a third pass in 26 of 29 starts this season. In those starts, hitters post a 1.125 OPS against him on the third pass (111 batters faced) compared with .700 OPS on the second pass of those same starts. His home ERA sits at 5.77 (160th of 188 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched at home), and the Giants send six left-handed bats into that context.

Burleson vs. Molina RHP. Alec Burleson draws a right-hander whose 2026 platoon samples fall below the publishable floor -- 51 batters faced vs left-handed hitters, 43 vs right-handed hitters, both under the 60-BF minimum. Last season Anthony Molina was stronger against right-handed batters: .829 OPS allowed, compared with 1.254 OPS allowed against left-handed batters (250th of 250 2025 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs left-handed batters).

Liberatore vs. Giants left-heavy order. Six of the Giants' nine lineup spots bat left-handed. Matthew Liberatore's 2026 split shows .832 OPS-against vs left-handed batters (156 BF), 174th of 223 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs left-handed batters, against .822 OPS-against vs right-handed batters (472 BF), 199th of 236 -- the two sides sit near each other, and neither gives the Giants' left-handed bats a meaningful platoon edge against him this season.

Eldridge on-base threat vs. Liberatore. Bryce Eldridge bats left-handed, landing on the side of Liberatore's split covered in the matchup above. Eldridge is stronger against left-handed pitching this season than against right-handers -- the vs-LHP mark the Bottom Line ranks -- so the same-side matchup does not suppress him, and his 12.9% walk rate adds to his on-base profile.

WATCHLIST

-- Matthew Liberatore. If Liberatore reaches the lineup a third time today, watch whether Oliver Marmol moves quickly -- the hook question is live from the first batter of that pass, so note the score and the runners on base at that moment.

-- Drew Cavanaugh. If the Cardinals run -- Masyn Winn and Bryan Torres sit at the top of the order -- watch Cavanaugh's arm. His 2026 caught-stealing rate is 19.6% on 46 attempts.

-- Jordan Walker. Walker ranks 23rd of 168 NL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances in SLG (.484). If he reaches Molina a second time, watch for a power opportunity -- Molina's 2026 splits fall below the floor for a platoon read.

-- Anthony Molina. Molina's 2026 ERA at home is 8.68 over 9.1 innings, against 2.77 on the road over 13.0 innings. If he labors early at Busch Stadium, watch for a short outing that opens the Giants' bullpen before St. Louis cycles through a second time.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Jordan Walker performed against Anthony Molina in their career?

2. How has Bryce Eldridge performed against Matthew Liberatore in their career?

3. How has Jung Hoo Lee performed against Matthew Liberatore in their career?

4. What are Matthew Liberatore's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. How has Jung Hoo Lee hit against left-handed and right-handed pitchers in 2025?

6. What is Kyle Leahy's inherited-runner strand rate in 2025?

7. What are the park factors at Busch Stadium in 2025?

700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025

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