YESTERDAY

Baltimore cruised to a 13-1 win last night in the series opener, with Pete Alonso going 4-for-4 with a home run and 4 RBI to pace an offense that plated 4 in the third and 8 in the fifth. Nathan Church's 10th home run provided St. Louis's only run.

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

AL EAST STANDINGS

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

STARTING PITCHERS

Michael McGreevy carries a 3.54 ERA across 137.1 innings and 25 starts this season. His 5-9 record has not matched his effectiveness -- 95 strikeouts against 36 walks and a 1.21 WHIP point to a pitcher who works the zone consistently and absorbs contact without chronic traffic problems. McGreevy has provided the Cardinals reliable length in most of his turns, and the ERA reflects a starter who gives his team a chance on a regular basis.

Kyle Bradish takes the ball tonight for Baltimore at 3.70 ERA across 138.2 innings and 25 starts. The 129 strikeouts headline his season, but 60 walks and a 1.38 WHIP capture the tension in his profile: Bradish misses bats at a rate that masks the damage his free passes invite. His 7-12 record comes with genuine swing-and-miss capability, and the walk rate is the variable that has kept his results uneven across the year.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Yesterday's lineup from 2026-08-25)

Handedness: 5 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Báez, Urías, Fermín), 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church).

Orioles (Yesterday's lineup from 2026-08-25)

Handedness: 4 RHB (Alonso, Mayo, Encarnacion-Strand, Franklin), 4 LHB (Holliday, Henderson, Basallo, Beavers), 1 SHB (Taveras).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Cardinals

Andre Pallante -- 2026-08-18: St. Louis Cardinals placed RHP Andre Pallante on the 15-day injured list retroactive to August 18, 2026. Right elbow inflammation.

Hunter Dobbins -- 2026-08-22: St. Louis Cardinals placed RHP Hunter Dobbins on the 15-day injured list. Right forearm tightness.

Everson Pereira -- 2026-08-23: St. Louis Cardinals placed RF Everson Pereira on the 10-day injured list. Left hand contusion.

Ramón Urías -- 2026-08-23: St. Louis Cardinals activated 3B Ramón Urías from the 60-day injured list.

Orioles

Chris Bassitt -- 2026-08-14: Baltimore Orioles activated RHP Chris Bassitt from the 60-day injured list.

Samuel Basallo -- 2026-08-19: Baltimore Orioles activated C Samuel Basallo from the 10-day injured list.

Two Cardinals relievers -- Andre Pallante (right elbow inflammation) and Hunter Dobbins (right forearm tightness) -- are shelved with arm trouble, compressing right-handed bullpen depth at a demanding stretch of the schedule. Everson Pereira's left hand contusion removes him from the outfield mix, narrowing St. Louis's options against Baltimore's pitching. Offsetting those losses, Ramón Urías returned from the 60-day injured list, restoring a right-handed bat to the infield.

Baltimore arrives with both Chris Bassitt and Samuel Basallo back from their respective stints -- the Orioles carry a restored rotation depth and a healthy catching situation into this series.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

Small sample: Alec Burleson (2 PA), Iván Herrera (2 PA), Nolan Gorman (2 PA).

All three Cardinals with career BvP history against Bradish -- Alec Burleson, Iván Herrera, and Nolan Gorman -- carry exactly 2 PA apiece, well below any actionable sample. The lines diverge sharply at that size (.000 for Herrera, .500 for Burleson, and 1.000/1.000/2.000 for Gorman, who walked in one plate appearance and doubled in the other), but none of those figures carry predictive weight. No batter clears both danger thresholds on volume alone.

No significant bench BvP history.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Small sample: Pete Alonso (2 PA).

Career BvP against McGreevy is essentially uncharted for this Baltimore lineup. Pete Alonso is the lone batter with any documented history, going 0-for-2 with a strikeout across 2 career PA -- too thin to project, but no early familiarity to lean on either. The rest of the Baltimore order carries no career plate appearances against him on record.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.

Bradish works from the right side, so the Cardinals' left-handed bats hold the platoon edge -- and Burleson owns it most clearly. 2026 vs RHP: .327 AVG and .976 OPS across 384 PA, well clear of his 2025 anchor (.296/.353/.478, 419 PA). Church carries a more complicated read: 2026 vs RHP .247 AVG / .672 OPS across 287 PA, a step forward from his 2025 sample (.114/.216/.182, 51 PA), though the 2026 line still trails the territory most left-handed bats occupy against a righty. Gorman holds the same handedness advantage but opposite results -- 2026 vs RHP .194 AVG / .602 OPS across 194 PA, below an already lean 2025 line (.201/.294/.349, 309 PA).

Among the right-handed Cardinals bats facing same-arm Bradish, Walker stands apart: 2026 vs RHP .285 AVG / .819 OPS across 399 PA, sharply ahead of his 2025 line (.200/.263/.291, 289 PA). Herrera slips in 2026 -- .241 AVG / .711 OPS across 404 PA -- against a 2025 anchor of .268/.343/.399 over 328 PA. Fermín's 2026 vs RHP reads .221 AVG / .583 OPS across 152 PA, behind his 2025 mark (.280/.379/.420, 59 PA). Urías has 52 PA vs RHP in 2026, below the table's display floor; his 2025 line (.233/.278/.367, 273 PA) is the available reference.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.

Pete Alonso anchors the Baltimore order against right-handed pitching across both time frames. 2026 vs RHP: .282 AVG and .916 OPS across 399 PA -- essentially matching his 2025 baseline of .291/.362/.567 (505 PA, 29 HR). He is the primary power threat against any right-hander this lineup presents.

The two headline left-handed bats have each stepped back against RHP in 2026. Gunnar Henderson (SS): 2026 .219 AVG, .689 OPS across 404 PA, well below his 2025 .299/.379/.499 (441 PA). Jackson Holliday (2B): 2026 .229 AVG, .680 OPS across 209 PA, behind his 2025 .259/.334/.401 (470 PA). Both carry reduced threat levels relative to their 2025 marks against right-handers.

Samuel Basallo (1B) runs counter to that trend. 2026 vs RHP: .250 AVG and .829 OPS across 247 PA -- a dramatic improvement from his 2025 .170/.215/.341 (93 PA). Leody Taveras (RF, switch) has also gained ground: 2026 .240 AVG, .725 OPS across 275 PA, well above his 2025 .190/.205/.303 (149 PA). Dylan Beavers (LF) is the steadiest of the left-sided group: 2026 .249 AVG, .746 OPS across 213 PA, consistent with his 2025 .244/.387/.411 (112 PA).

Coby Mayo (DH) and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (3B) are the lineup's weakest slots against right-handers. Mayo: 2026 .162 AVG, .504 OPS across 223 PA, below his already modest 2025 .199/.284/.364 (197 PA). Encarnacion-Strand: 2026 .206 AVG, .576 OPS across 66 PA, down from his 2025 .258/.288/.485 (104 PA).

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Bradish carries a 2026 vs-LHB mark of .254 AVG / .748 OPS across 355 BF; his 2025 baseline was .234 AVG / .688 OPS over 73 PA. Against right-handed bats, his 2026 line reads .250 AVG / .705 OPS across 232 BF, well above his 2025 mark of .157 AVG / .405 OPS over 53 PA. The 2025 right-side dominance has narrowed sharply in 2026, and Cardinals righties (Herrera, Walker, Báez, Urías, Fermín) no longer carry the platoon disadvantage that the historical figure implies; the left-handed group (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church) holds only a marginal edge against him in 2026.

McGreevy shows a 2026 vs-LHB mark of .258 AVG / .742 OPS across 351 BF, a substantial improvement from his 2025 mark of .318 AVG / .911 OPS over 190 PA. Against right-handed bats, his 2026 line is .238 AVG / .664 OPS across 207 BF versus .225 AVG / .580 OPS over 210 PA in 2025. The left-handed side remains his softer exposure, and Baltimore's left-handed group (Holliday, Henderson, Basallo, Beavers) represents the primary platoon pressure; Taveras switches, adding a plate appearance that shades either side. The 2026 improvement against left-handed bats is genuine, but the OPS gap relative to his right-handed numbers persists.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Tonight's venue is Busch Stadium: McGreevy starts at home, Bradish on the road. For Bradish, the road is the harder side of his split in both samples -- 2026 away: 3.91 ERA in 73.2 innings; 2025 away baseline: 3.46 ERA in 13.0 innings (55 BF). His 2026 home ERA of 3.46 in 65.0 innings is the lower of the two figures, consistent with a home advantage that carried across both seasons.

McGreevy's 2026 home ERA of 3.41 in 66.0 innings is the lower side of his current split, a notable reversal from his 2025 home line of 5.22 ERA across 212 BF (50.0 IP). His 2026 away ERA of 3.66 in 71.1 innings now sits above the home figure; last season's relationship between these marks ran the opposite direction.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Kyle Bradish has pitched into a third pass in 24 of 25 starts. In the 24 starts he pitched into a third pass, hitters posted a .794 OPS on the second pass -- 216 PA. From the third pass on in those same starts: .796 OPS -- 142 PA. Early hooks: 1 start, 3 PA. Michael McGreevy has pitched into a third pass in 23 of 25 starts. In the 23 starts he pitched into a third pass, hitters posted a .696 OPS on the second pass -- 207 PA. From the third pass on in those same starts: .770 OPS -- 111 PA. Early hooks: 2 starts, 15 PA. Per-pass rate stats resting on fewer than 50 PA render as their PA count, never as a decimal; 2026 companion columns carry their own 60 BF floor (below floor renders SSS).

Kyle Bradish was vulnerable on his first pass in 2025, allowing a .802 OPS across 54 PA -- including 3 HR -- before locking down sharply on the second pass at .379 OPS on 52 PA. In 2026, his first-pass OPS has improved to .631 across 226 BF, but the deeper passes have opened up. Bradish has pitched into a third pass in 24 of 25 starts; in those starts, the second pass produced .794 OPS against 216 PA and the third ran at .796 OPS across 142 PA -- the two passes essentially level once he is kept in long enough. His 2025 second-pass dominance has not carried forward.

Michael McGreevy showed a clean declining gradient in 2025: first pass .792 OPS on 154 PA, second pass .715 OPS on 152 PA, third pass .677 OPS on 94 PA -- each pass coming in below the last. In 2026, the first pass has tightened to .658 OPS across 225 BF, but the middle and late passes have risen. McGreevy has pitched into a third pass in 23 of 25 starts; in those starts, the second pass produced .696 OPS against 207 PA and the third climbed to .770 OPS across 111 PA -- a departure from his 2025 pattern, where damage eased as the game deepened.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Leahy carries the heaviest inherited-runner load in this group, having seen 29 IR in 2025. His 2026 line of 3.13 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across 126.1 innings reflects sustained deployment; his 2025 strand rate of 62.1% falls below the league band. Graceffo in 2026 shows a 3.13 ERA and 1.12 WHIP across 63.1 innings; his 2025 strand rate of 54.5% sits well off the league floor. O'Brien in 2026: 3.93 ERA and 1.22 WHIP across 52.2 innings; his 2025 strand rate of 70.0% lands inside the league band. Fernandez's 2025 strand rate of 50.0% across 8 IR is the lowest in this group; he has thrown 17.1 innings in 2026. McGreevy in 2026: 3.54 ERA and 1.21 WHIP across 137.1 innings; his 2025 strand rate of 100.0% across 3 IR shows no inherited runner allowed home, though the sample is small.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)

Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- BAL

McGreevy's 2025 groundball rate (49.2% on 307 BIP) meets a Baltimore lineup that struggles to do damage on the ground. Basallo hit .077 on grounders in 2025, Encarnacion-Strand .179, and Alonso .242 -- Henderson (.255) and Beavers (.381) are the outliers on the better end. The lineup's collective strength runs in the opposite direction: 2025 line-drive averages range from .474 (Beavers) to .706 (Encarnacion-Strand), with Henderson (.670), Mayo (.697), Holliday (.653), Basallo (.667), Alonso (.641), and Taveras (.633) all clustered in that band. McGreevy keeping the ball on the ground limits this lineup to its weakest contact zone; a spike in line-drive rate exposes the opposite side of that ledger.

Bradish's 2025 profile (65 BIP) reads nearly flat across all three contact types -- 35.4% GB, 33.8% FB, 32.3% LD -- with no pronounced shape bias in either direction for the Cardinals to exploit or avoid.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

Yohel Pozo, who caught McGreevy once in 2025 (5.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, .056 average against), now appears on Baltimore's active roster rather than St. Louis's. The projected Cardinals lineup carries no catcher designation; Pedro Pagés and Jimmy Crooks both remain on the St. Louis active roster. Pagés is McGreevy's primary 2025 battery partner across 14 games and 80.2 innings, posting a 4.24 ERA in that span. Crooks caught two games behind McGreevy in 2025 (8.2 IP, 9.35 ERA, .385 average against), a stretch too brief to establish a pairing profile.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Henderson leads Baltimore on the bases: 10 steals in 2026 at 66.7%, with a 2025 baseline of 30 steals at 85.7%. Taveras matches him with 10 steals in 2026 at 76.9% (9 steals at 75% in 2025). Holliday has 7 steals in 2026 at 70.0% (17 steals at 60.7% in 2025).

Alonso has 5 steals in 2026 at 83.3% (1 steal at 33.3% in 2025). Beavers has 5 steals in 2026 at 50.0%, matching his 2025 rate (2 steals, 50%). Mayo has 2 steals in 2026 at 100.0% (3 steals at 100% in 2025). Encarnacion-Strand has 1 steal in 2026 at 100.0%.

Cardinals catchers: Pedro Pagés has a 31.5% CS rate on 54 attempts this season -- 17 caught stealing. Jimmy Crooks has 1 CS on 15 attempts (14 allowed), a sample too small for a published rate; Pagés's 54-attempt record offers the fuller frame of reference.

Baltimore catchers: Carlos Narváez has thrown out 9 of 49 baserunners this season (18.4% CS). Samuel Basallo has 11 CS on 36 attempts this season (30.6% CS). Yohel Pozo has 2 CS on 7 attempts (5 allowed) -- too small a sample for a published rate; Narváez's 49-attempt record is the primary reference among Baltimore's catchers.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Jordan Walker in right field tonight carries a 108-game 2025 sample at RF: 0.981 fielding percentage, 4 errors. Alec Burleson, listed at first base, posted a 0.990 Fld% across 50 games at 1B in 2025, with 27 double plays turned. Ramón Urías moves to second base tonight; his 2025 2B log covers 26 games, no errors, 1.000 Fld% — a smaller but clean look compared to his 78-game 2025 body of work at third base (0.979). Nathan Church in center has been error-free in 18 CF games in 2025 (1.000 Fld%). Nolan Gorman is at DH. José Fermín's 2025 fielding entries cover second base (15G, 1.000) and third base (5G, 1.000); the table carries no 2025 shortstop sample for him. Iván Herrera's 2025 log shows 14 games at catcher and 4 at left field; no first-base entry appears for him in the 2025 data.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

St. Louis swept Baltimore 3-0 in 2024 and took 2-1 series wins in both 2023 and 2025; Baltimore's only series edge across the 2022-2025 window came in 2022, when the Orioles won 2-1.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Gorman and Walker carried the steepest 2025 K% on this roster, each flagged above 30%. Gorman's 2026 K% stands at 33.0% through 233 PA; 2025 baseline: 33.8%. Walker's 2026 K% has dropped to 24.1% across 551 PA; 2025 baseline: 31.8%. Church's 2026 K% of 18.8% through 362 PA improves on his 2025 mark of 27.7%.

Church is the only Cardinal flagged for a low walk rate. His 2026 BB% of 5.2% through 362 PA edges above his 2025 mark of 4.6%, but still sits below 6%.

Orioles

Mayo's 2026 K% has climbed to 32.8% through 345 PA; 2025 baseline: 28.6%. Basallo's 2026 K% of 27.2% through 331 PA exceeds his 2025 rate of 25.4%. Taveras, flagged at 27.8% in 2025, has improved to 24.4% through 406 PA in 2026.

Encarnacion-Strand's 2026 BB% of 4.6% through 109 PA edges above his 2025 mark of 2.2%, but remains well below 6%. Taveras walked at 8.9% through 406 PA in 2026; 2025 baseline: 2.8%. Beavers' 2026 BB% of 9.5% through 252 PA has retreated from his 2025 rate of 19.0%.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

The Cardinals' 2025 contact profile skews toward ground balls across most of the order: Herrera (52.6% GB, 285 BIP), Walker (48.9%, 231 BIP), and Urías (45.1%, 253 BIP) sit at the higher end of the spectrum, with Burleson (42.0%, 398 BIP) in a similar range. Bradish carries a 55.7% GB rate in 2026, so the Cardinals' tendency to roll the ball over projects toward ground-ball contact as the dominant outcome against him. Gorman is the structural exception -- his 30.2% GB and 41.7% FB across 199 BIP in 2025 put him at the air-ball end of this order, the contact shape least aligned with that tendency.

Orioles

Bradish's 2026 GB rate of 55.7% fits the Cardinals' ground-ball-heavy tendencies almost lineup-wide. Herrera (52.6% GB, 285 BIP), Walker (48.9%, 231 BIP), Urías (45.1%, 253 BIP), and Burleson (42.0%, 398 BIP) all project toward ground-ball contact in 2025 -- a contact shape that aligns with how Bradish works. Gorman (30.2% GB, 41.7% FB in 2025, 199 BIP) is the diverging profile: his air-ball tendency runs counter to what Bradish typically generates and marks the clearest contact-shape mismatch in the Cardinals order.

McGreevy's 2025 batted-ball profile ran at 49.2% GB across 307 BIP -- a genuine groundball pitcher in contact-shape terms. The Orioles lineup maps unevenly against that profile. Holliday (50.9% GB, 428 BIP), Henderson (51.1%, 423 BIP), and Basallo (52.0%, 75 BIP) match McGreevy's groundball tendency closely; when they put the ball in play, the ground is the natural destination. Mayo (42.3% FB, 168 BIP), Taveras (40.4% FB, 114 BIP), and Beavers (42.9% FB, 70 BIP) depart from that shape -- all three carry elevated fly-ball rates in 2025 that push well beyond what McGreevy's profile typically produces, making them the hitters whose contact tendency works most against his approach.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

McGreevy's 2025 profile is built on control: his 14.5% K% sits below the starter median, but a 5.0% BB% is among the leanest walk rates in the game, and the 2.90 K/BB across 95.2 innings reflects a contact-management approach that limits damage without chasing strikeouts.

Bradish worked just 32.0 innings in 2025 -- a partial-season sample -- but posted a 37.3% K% with a 7.9% BB% for a 4.70 K/BB. Even in that short look, the strikeout rate signals genuine swing-and-miss depth. Tonight's contrast is direct: McGreevy controls traffic by suppressing walks; Bradish misses bats at a rate few starters approach when fully stretched out.

KEY MATCHUPS

Henderson vs. McGreevy. Henderson bats left-handed against McGreevy from the third spot in Baltimore's order with a 2026 line of .219/.307/.382 across 404 PA against right-handed pitching, compared to his 2025 mark of .299/.379/.499 across 441 PA. The 2026 sample reflects a step back from his historical form in this split, but batting third in Baltimore's left-handed core, he carries the order's deepest run-producing leverage in this structural matchup.

Holliday vs. McGreevy. Holliday leads off left-handed against McGreevy with a 2026 line of .229/.317/.363 across 209 PA against right-handed pitching, tracking below his 2025 baseline of .259/.334/.401 across 470 PA. Baltimore sequences left-handed bats first and third before McGreevy ever reaches a right-handed hitter in the order, making this split exposure a first-inning structural reality.

Burleson vs. Bradish. Burleson bats third left-handed against Bradish, carrying a 2026 line of .327/.404/.572 across 384 PA against right-handed pitching, well ahead of his 2025 baseline of .296/.353/.478 across 419 PA. Bradish has allowed a .748 OPS to left-handed bats across 355 batters faced in 2026, compared to .688 across 73 PA in 2025 -- Burleson's elevated 2026 form in this split lands against the pitcher's most exposed matchup type.

Pagés-McGreevy battery (2025). In 14 games together in 2025, the Pagés-McGreevy pairing logged a 4.24 ERA and .266 opponent average -- a shared-history reference that points to the split exposure McGreevy carries as a structural feature of his pitching profile, not one tonight's home setting resolves on its own.

WATCHLIST

-- Cardinals running game vs. Narváez. If the Cardinals put runners on against Bradish's elevated walk rate, watch for steal attempts against Carlos Narváez: he has allowed 40 stolen bases this season with an 18.4 percent caught-stealing rate, the lowest among Baltimore catchers with enough attempts to qualify.

-- Bradish TTO2 spike. If the Cardinals keep the game close through the first pass, watch for the second to open up: Bradish's OPS-against moves from 0.631 in the first time through the order to 0.794 in the second, measured in starts where he pitched into a third pass. He has reached a third pass in 24 of 25 starts.

-- Gunnar Henderson on the bases. If Henderson reaches base, watch for a running attempt: he has 10 stolen bases in 2026 and posted an 85.7 percent success rate on 30 steals in 2025.

-- Michael McGreevy groundball rate at home. If McGreevy keeps Baltimore from squaring the ball up -- his 52.2 GB% this season is an elite rate -- watch the Cardinals' infield execution: at Busch, in a series the Cardinals trail 1-0, a misplay on a soft grounder compounds the deficit.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Jordan Walker performed against Kyle Bradish in their career?

2. How has Pete Alonso performed against Michael McGreevy in their career?

3. How has Gunnar Henderson performed against Michael McGreevy in their career?

4. What were Michael McGreevy's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What were Nolan Gorman's splits against right-handed pitchers in 2025?

6. What was Kyle Leahy's inherited-runner strand rate in 2025?

7. What is the park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?