Correction -- 2026-08-25. This edition was corrected after publication. In the pitcher platoon section, two sentences reversed the direction of tonight's platoon comparison, crediting the Cardinals' right-handed majority with an edge the same table's numbers place with the left-handed bats; the passage now states the direction the numbers show. No numbers were changed. The edition as originally published is preserved in this project's git history; the full record of archive corrections is kept in ARCHIVE-CORRECTIONS.md.

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Brewers81-50-L1
Cubs76-565.5W2
Cardinals66-6615.5L3
Pirates64-6918.0W1
Reds62-7019.5L2

AL EAST STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Rays78-53-W2
Yankees74-563.5W1
Sox72-596.0W4
Jays64-6814.5L1
Orioles63-6815.0L1

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

DateOppH/AResult
Aug 23PHIAwayL 4-6
Aug 22PHIAwayL 3-12
Aug 21PHIAwayL 6-7 (10)
Aug 20CINAwayW 10-9
Aug 19CINAwayL 4-5
Aug 18CINAwayW 3-0
Aug 17 (G1)CINAwayW 2-1
Aug 17 (G2)CINAwayL 5-6 (10)
Aug 16CHCAwayW 11-4
Aug 15CHCAwayW 8-4

STARTING PITCHERS

The Cardinals have not announced a starter for tonight's series opener against Baltimore; the pitching assignment remains to be determined.

Chris Bassitt carries a 4-4 record and a 5.08 ERA across 12 starts and 67.1 innings, with 46 strikeouts and 26 walks. A 1.62 WHIP reflects the volume of traffic he has allowed this season. The sharpest fault line in his 2026 numbers is a pronounced home-road split: a 3.35 ERA over 37.2 innings at home against a 7.28 mark in 29.2 innings away from home. Tonight he draws an away assignment at Busch Stadium.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (From active roster)

13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

PlayerPosBats
Burleson1BL
Jordan3BR
TorresLFL
HerreraDHR
Wetherholt2BL
CrooksCL
WalkerRFR
FermínLFR
BáezLFR
WinnSSR
ChurchCFL
PagésCR
Urías3BR

Handedness: 8 RHB (Jordan, Herrera, Walker, Fermín, Báez, Winn, Pagés, Urías), 5 LHB (Burleson, Torres, Wetherholt, Crooks, Church).

Orioles (From active roster)

13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

PlayerPosBats
NarváezCR
Encarnacion-Strand3BR
FranklinCFR
Mayo3BR
CowserCFL
BeaversRFL
HendersonSSL
Holliday2BL
TaverasCFS
Alonso1BR
BasalloCL
O'NeillRFR
PozoCR

Handedness: 7 RHB (Narváez, Encarnacion-Strand, Franklin, Mayo, Alonso, O'Neill, Pozo), 5 LHB (Cowser, Beavers, Henderson, Holliday, Basallo), 1 SHB (Taveras).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Cardinals

Andre Pallante -- 2026-08-18: St. Louis Cardinals placed RHP Andre Pallante on the 15-day injured list retroactive to August 18, 2026. Right elbow inflammation.

Hunter Dobbins -- 2026-08-22: St. Louis Cardinals placed RHP Hunter Dobbins on the 15-day injured list. Right forearm tightness.

Ramón Urías -- 2026-08-23: St. Louis Cardinals activated 3B Ramón Urías from the 60-day injured list.

Everson Pereira -- 2026-08-23: St. Louis Cardinals placed RF Everson Pereira on the 10-day injured list. Left hand contusion.

Orioles

Chris Bassitt -- 2026-08-14: Baltimore Orioles activated RHP Chris Bassitt from the 60-day injured list.

Samuel Basallo -- 2026-08-19: Baltimore Orioles activated C Samuel Basallo from the 10-day injured list.

The Cardinals bullpen is short two right-handed arms with Pallante (elbow) and Dobbins (forearm) both on the injured list, compressing available relief depth for this series. Urías returning from the 60-day list replenishes the infield, though Pereira's left hand contusion narrows the outfield bench at the same time. For Baltimore, Basallo is back behind the plate following his 10-day absence, restoring their preferred catching alignment.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Ramón Urías984.500.556.875111
Alec Burleson553.600.6001.400100
Masyn Winn440.000.000.000001
Iván Herrera441.250.250.250001
Pedro Pagés330.000.000.000000
Jordan Walker220.000.000.000000

Small sample: Ramón Urías (9 PA), Alec Burleson (5 PA), Masyn Winn (4 PA), Iván Herrera (4 PA), Pedro Pagés (3 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA).

Every career BvP line against Bassitt rests on a sample too small to trust -- the deepest is Ramón Urías at 9 PA, and no other Cardinals batter clears 5. Urías (.500/.556/.875, 1 HR in 8 AB) and Alec Burleson (.600/.600/1.400, 1 HR in 5 AB) post striking career BvP numbers, but both are small-sample lines and should be treated as noise, not signal. Masyn Winn (0-for-4 in 4 PA), Iván Herrera (.250/.250/.250 in 4 PA), Pedro Pagés (0-for-3), and Jordan Walker (0-for-2) present the inverse in equally thin history -- their zeroes carry no more weight than the eye-catching lines above them.

No Cardinals batter clears both danger thresholds: Urías's career average leads the group but his 9 PA stop short of the plate-appearance minimum, and Burleson's 5 PA fall further still.

No significant bench BvP history.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

No data available for this section.

The Cardinals starter is TBD, so no career BvP matchup data can be compiled against the Baltimore roster.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK2026 PA2026 AVG2026 OPS
Alec Burleson L419.296.353.478153259381.327.978
Masyn Winn R374.251.309.36872371362.219.595
Iván Herrera R328.268.343.399102466400.241.713
Jordan Walker R289.200.263.29142194396.287.825
Pedro Pagés R276.225.264.36491272107.232.661
Ramón Urías R273.233.278.3677175748SSSSSS
José Fermín R59.280.379.420178149.226.596
Nathan Church L51.114.216.1821314284.242.653
Jimmy Crooks L38.108.132.1620015122.182.554

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.

Bassitt has posted a .931 OPS against left-handed batters in 2026 across 194 BF, and the Cardinals send five left-handers into the matchup. Alec Burleson leads that group: 2026 vs RHP, .327 AVG/.978 OPS across 381 PA. His 2025 baseline was .296/.353/.478 across 419 PA. Nathan Church has climbed sharply from a punishing 2025 mark (.114/.216/.182, 51 PA): 2026 vs RHP, .242 AVG/.653 OPS across 284 PA. Jimmy Crooks is the weaker end of the LHB group against right-handers but has moved well clear of a difficult 2025 floor (.108/.132/.162, 38 PA): 2026 vs RHP, .182 AVG/.554 OPS across 122 PA.

The eight right-handers in the Cardinals' pool face the harder side of that split: Bassitt has held right-handed batters to a .631 OPS across 115 BF in 2026. Jordan Walker is the standout story among them: 2026 vs RHP, .287 AVG/.825 OPS across 396 PA, a sharp departure from a 2025 baseline of .200/.263/.291 in 289 PA. Masyn Winn has pulled back in 2026, sitting at .219 AVG/.595 OPS across 362 PA vs RHP, below his 2025 figure of .251/.309/.368 in 374 PA. Iván Herrera reads .241 AVG/.713 OPS through 400 PA in 2026, down from .268/.343/.399 in 328 PA in 2025. José Fermín has receded to .226 AVG/.596 OPS across 149 PA in 2026, below a 2025 mark of .280/.379/.420 in 59 PA. Pedro Pagés sits at .232 AVG/.661 OPS through 107 PA in 2026, near his 2025 baseline of .225/.264/.364 in 276 PA. Ramón Urías has 48 PA against right-handers in 2026; the 2025 baseline reads .233/.278/.367 across 273 PA.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK2026 PA2026 AVG2026 OPS
Gunnar Henderson L210.224.286.31831451184.222.712
Pete Alonso R204.227.309.42091861169.248.745
Jackson Holliday L179.200.263.3094114369.233.666
Carlos Narváez R130.243.331.4004152859SSSSSS
Coby Mayo R97.253.330.4374925118.3061.105
Colton Cowser L92.188.250.388533345SSSSSS
Tyler O'Neill R59.157.254.3924618123.223.775
Yohel Pozo R42.275.286.42511620SSSSSS
Christian Encarnacion-Strand R33.061.061.061001140SSSSSS
Leody Taveras B31.276.323.310029128.202.509
Samuel Basallo L25.143.280.28613581.192.491
Dylan Beavers L25.150.320.35015436SSSSSS

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.

Against left-handed pitching, the right-handed side of Baltimore's roster presents the steepest challenge. Coby Mayo stands out in 2026: .306 AVG, 1.105 OPS across 118 PA vs LHP, a sharp step up from his 2025 mark (.253/.330/.437, 97 PA). Pete Alonso is a consistent left-side power threat -- 2026 vs LHP: .248 AVG, .745 OPS across 169 PA, close to his 2025 output (.227/.309/.420, 204 PA, nine home runs). Tyler O'Neill has reversed a difficult 2025 (.157/.254/.392, 59 PA); in 2026 he carries .223 AVG and .775 OPS across 123 PA vs LHP.

Baltimore's left-handed bats are broadly suppressed in the same-hand matchup. Gunnar Henderson posts a 2026 vs LHP line of .222 AVG, .712 OPS across 184 PA -- consistent with his 2025 baseline (.224/.286/.318, 210 PA). Jackson Holliday tracks similarly: 2026 vs LHP, .233 AVG and .666 OPS across 69 PA, in line with his 2025 struggles (.200/.263/.309, 179 PA). Samuel Basallo logs .192 AVG and .491 OPS across 81 PA vs LHP in 2026; his 2025 baseline was .143/.280/.286 across 25 PA. Switch-hitter Leody Taveras sits at .202 AVG and .509 OPS across 128 PA vs LHP in 2026, well off a slim 2025 read (.276/.323/.310, 31 PA).

Three roster members fall below the 60-PA floor vs LHP in 2026 and anchor to 2025 history. Carlos Narváez posted .243/.331/.400 across 130 PA vs LHP in 2025, drawing 15 walks against 28 strikeouts. Colton Cowser hit .188/.250/.388 across 92 PA vs LHP in 2025; the five home runs in that sample flag real pop potential despite the low average. Christian Encarnacion-Strand carries a severe 2025 line against left-handed pitching: .061/.061/.061 across 33 PA.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

PitchervsPAAVGOBPSLGOPSHRK2026 BF2026 AVG2026 OPS
Chris Bassittvs LHB419.283.352.461.8131387194.333.931
Chris Bassittvs RHB317.233.290.356.646979115.262.631

Chris Bassitt (RHP): 2026 vs LHB: .333 AVG / .931 OPS across 194 BF, sharply above his 2025 mark (.283/.352/.461, .813 OPS across 419 PA). Five left-handed Cardinals bats -- Burleson, Torres, Wetherholt, Crooks, and Church -- fall in the split where Bassitt has been easier to run against in both seasons. 2026 vs RHB: .262 AVG / .631 OPS across 115 BF, tracking close to his 2025 baseline (.233/.290/.356, .646 OPS across 317 PA). St. Louis carries eight right-handed bats, aligning the lineup's majority with the side Bassitt has handled more cleanly -- the structural platoon advantage in this matchup sits with the five left-handed bats, not with the right-handed majority.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

PitcherSplitBFIPERAKBBHR2026 IP2026 ERA
Chris BassittAway35177.14.7766251229.27.28
Chris BassittHome38593.02.71100271037.23.35

Bassitt draws an away start tonight at Busch Stadium, and his splits show a pronounced venue gap. 2026 away: 7.28 ERA across 29.2 innings. 2025 away baseline: 4.77 ERA over 77.1 innings and 351 batters faced. His home numbers run sharply lower: 2026 home: 3.35 ERA across 37.2 innings; 2025 home baseline: 2.71 ERA over 93.0 innings and 385 batters faced. The Cardinals get the road-struggling version of Bassitt tonight.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PitcherTTOPAAVGSLGOPSHRKBB2026 BF2026 AVG2026 OPS
Chris BassittTTO1284.243.425.728116918108.359.977
Chris BassittTTO2276.285.422.77176519103.319.819
Chris BassittTTO3176.252.390.7144321555SSSSSS

Chris Bassitt has pitched into a third pass in 10 of 12 starts. In the 10 starts he pitched into a third pass, hitters posted a .746 OPS on the second pass -- 90 PA. From the third pass on in those same starts: .640 OPS -- 55 PA. Early hooks: 2 starts, 13 PA. Per-pass rate stats resting on fewer than 50 PA render as their PA count, never as a decimal; 2026 companion columns carry their own 60 BF floor (below floor renders SSS).

The 2025 baseline shows a relatively even ride through the order: .728 OPS in the first pass (284 PA), .771 in the second (276 PA), and .714 in the third (176 PA). In 2026 the top of that cycle has spiked. Bassitt's first-pass line stands at .977 OPS over 108 batters faced -- a sharp step above his 2025 first-pass mark. From the second pass on, the production moderates.

Conditioned on the 10 starts where Bassitt worked into a third pass: second-pass hitters produced a .746 OPS (90 PA), and from the third pass on in those same starts the line fell to .640 (55 PA). Chris Bassitt has pitched into a third pass in 10 of 12 starts. His 2026 third-pass work spans 55 BF. The first pass is his clearest exposure window this season; within the starts he works deep, hitter production drops at each successive look.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

RelieverIRScoredStrand%2026 IP2026 ERA2026 WHIP
Kyle Leahy291162.1%126.13.131.30
Gordon Graceffo11554.5%63.13.131.12
Riley O'Brien10370.0%52.23.931.22
Ryan Fernandez8450.0%15.1SSSSSS
Michael McGreevy30100.0%137.13.541.21

League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Each arm's 2025 strand rate serves as the historical baseline for holding inherited runners.

Kyle Leahy logged 126.1 innings in 2026 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.30 WHIP -- the heaviest inherited-runner load at 29 IR. His 2025 strand rate of 62.1% ran below the league band.

Gordon Graceffo has thrown 63.1 innings in 2026 (3.13 ERA, 1.12 WHIP). His 2025 strand rate of 54.5% across 11 inherited runners sits well below the league-average band.

Riley O'Brien (2026: 52.2 IP, 3.93 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) is the one arm whose 2025 strand rate (70.0%, 10 IR) lands within the league-average band.

Ryan Fernandez posted a 2025 strand rate of 50.0% across 8 inherited runners, the group's floor. His 2026 workload stands at 15.1 innings, too small for a stable ERA or WHIP read.

Michael McGreevy carries the biggest 2026 workload (137.1 IP, 3.54 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). His 2025 inherited-runner strand rate was a perfect 100.0%, though that figure rests on just 3 inherited runners -- a lean sample.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)

PitcherBIPGB%FB%LD%
Chris Bassitt48348.0%26.7%24.8%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- BAL

HitterGB AVGLD AVGFB AVG
Pete Alonso.242.641.109
Samuel Basallo.077.667.185
Dylan Beavers.381.474.133
Colton Cowser.202.667.088
Christian Encarnacion-Strand.179.706.056
Gunnar Henderson.255.670.116
Jackson Holliday.239.653.080
Coby Mayo.234.697.113
Carlos Narváez.267.638.114
Tyler O'Neill.167.625.091
Yohel Pozo.167.600.045
Leody Taveras.237.633.022

Bassitt's 2025 contact shape -- 48.0% GB on 483 BIP -- tilts tonight's expected contact heavily toward the ground, and that tendency lands well against most of this Baltimore lineup. Basallo (.077 GB AVG), O'Neill (.167), and Pozo (.167) are near-automatic outs on balls in the dirt; even the lineup's busiest ground-ball contact producers, Henderson (.255) and Narváez (.267), stay sub-.270. Beavers (.381 GB AVG) is the lone profile that cuts against Bassitt's formula -- the one hitter who genuinely punishes that contact shape.

The danger zone is line drives, and the math is unforgiving across the board: every Baltimore hitter in this group posts a 2025 LD AVG above .600. Encarnacion-Strand (.706), Mayo (.697), Henderson (.670), Basallo (.667), and Cowser (.667) sit at the top of that band. Bassitt's own 24.8% LD rate means a real portion of contact arrives there, and when it does, the lineup converts it efficiently regardless of who is hitting.

The flyball side is where Bassitt catches a break. His 26.7% FB rate is his lowest share of the three contact types, and the Baltimore group is largely helpless on elevations: Taveras (.022 FB AVG), Pozo (.045), Encarnacion-Strand (.056), and Cowser (.088) make fly contact an almost certain out. Alonso, the lineup's preeminent power threat, checks in at .109 on flies in 2025 -- his damage comes on the line, not in the air. The matchup rewards Bassitt for inducing grounders, punishes him sharply if he leaks into the line-drive band, and gives him reasonable cover on anything lifted.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

No data available for this section.

With no Cardinals starter announced, the battery-pairing table carries no entries. Both Cardinals catchers on the active roster -- Jimmy Crooks and Pedro Pagés -- are St. Louis players, so no prior-team context applies to either. The confirmed lineup has not been posted, leaving both the pitching assignment and the starting catcher open; whichever battery takes the field, there is no 2025 pairing record between them on file.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Baltimore runners. 2026 to date: Gunnar Henderson and Leody Taveras each lead Baltimore with 10 stolen bases -- Henderson at 66.7% (5 caught) and Taveras at 76.9% (3 caught). 2025 baseline: Henderson ran at 85.7% (30 SB), Taveras at 75% (9 SB). Colton Cowser has 8 SB at 72.7% in 2026 (2025: 14 SB, 100%). Jackson Holliday sits at 70.0% on 7 SB in 2026 (2025: 17 SB, 60.7%). Dylan Beavers stands at 50.0% in 2026 (5 SB, 5 CS). Pete Alonso has 5 SB at 83.3% in 2026.

Cardinals arm behind the plate. Pedro Pagés has 17 caught stealings in 54 attempts, a 31.5% rate. Jimmy Crooks has allowed 14 stolen bases with 1 caught stealing in 15 attempts -- the sample is too small for a rate; Pagés's 31.5% is the roster's published figure.

Baltimore catchers. Carlos Narváez has caught 9 of 49 steal attempts (18.4%). Samuel Basallo has caught 11 of 36 (30.6%). Yohel Pozo has allowed 5 stolen bases with 2 caught in 7 attempts -- too few for a published rate; Narváez's 18.4% and Basallo's 30.6% are the available marks in the Baltimore group.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

PlayerPOSGDPEFld%
Masyn WinnSS1296430.994
Pedro PagésC110650.994
Jordan WalkerRF108240.981
Ramón Urías3B782040.979
Alec Burleson1B502740.990
Alec BurlesonLF41001.000
Alec BurlesonRF34110.983
Ramón Urías2B26701.000
Nathan ChurchCF18001.000
José Fermín2B15501.000
Jimmy CrooksC14001.000
Iván HerreraC14010.989
Nathan ChurchRF7010.833
Nathan ChurchLF5001.000
José Fermín3B5001.000
Iván HerreraLF4001.000
José FermínLF4001.000
Ramón Urías1B3001.000
Pedro Pagés1B2101.000
José FermínRF1001.000
Alec BurlesonP100--
Pedro Pagés2B1001.000

Masyn Winn at shortstop is the defensive anchor of this infield: his 2025 work at the position covered 129 games, 64 double plays, and just 3 errors for a .994 fielding percentage. Burleson at first base logged 50 games there in 2025, posting a .990 fielding percentage and 27 double plays. Urías at third base carries a 78-game 2025 sample at the position (.979 fielding percentage, 20 double plays) and also showed clean work at second base in 2025 -- 26 games, 1.000 fielding percentage. Walker in right field holds the largest 2025 outfield fielding sample among the Cardinals outfielders listed, 108 games at .981. Church at center field has 18 games at that spot in 2025, error-free at 1.000. Both catchers listed -- Pagés (110 games at the position in 2025, .994 fielding percentage) and Crooks (14 games, 1.000) -- carry solid 2025 receiving records. Fermín, listed in left field, has 4 games at that position in 2025 (1.000 fielding percentage), with additional 2025 appearances at second base (15 games, 1.000) and third base (5 games, 1.000). No 2025 fielding entries appear for Wetherholt at second base, Jordan at third, or Torres and Báez in left field.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Over the 2022-2025 span, St. Louis has held the upper hand at the season-series level against Baltimore, sweeping the Orioles 3-0 in 2024 and taking the series 2-1 in both 2023 and 2025; Baltimore's lone series edge in that window came in 2022 (2-1).

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%2026 PA2026 K%2026 BB%
Alec Burleson5447914.5%397.2%55316.8%8.3%
Masyn Winn53710219.0%346.3%49021.4%9.0%
Iván Herrera4508418.7%439.6%58618.1%10.9%
Jordan Walker39612631.8%297.3%54824.1%7.7%
Ramón Urías3918822.5%276.9%7216.7%8.3%
Pedro Pagés38910727.5%194.9%19126.2%5.2%
José Fermín701014.3%811.4%28412.3%9.2%
Nathan Church651827.7%34.6%35918.9%5.3%
Jimmy Crooks461737.0%00.0%14032.1%6.4%

Jimmy Crooks carries the steepest strikeout rate in the lineup - 2026 K%: 32.1%; 2025 baseline: 37.0%. Jordan Walker's 2026 rate of 24.1% has moved below 25% this season; his 2025 baseline was 31.8%. Pedro Pagés (2026: 26.2%; 2025: 27.5%) sits elevated on both lines, while Nathan Church's 2026 K% of 18.9% reflects a sharp pullback from his 2025 baseline of 27.7%.

Pedro Pagés and Nathan Church sit below the 6% walk threshold: Pagés at 2026 BB% 5.2% (2025: 4.9%), Church at 5.3% (2025: 4.6%). Jimmy Crooks stands at 2026 BB% 6.4% across 140 PA; his 2025 sample of 46 PA produced a BB% of 0.0%.

Orioles

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%2026 PA2026 K%2026 BB%
Pete Alonso70916222.8%618.6%56723.8%11.1%
Gunnar Henderson65113721.0%629.5%58722.1%9.2%
Jackson Holliday64914021.6%568.6%27522.9%12.4%
Carlos Narváez44611124.9%388.5%24233.1%6.6%
Colton Cowser36012835.6%277.5%31030.3%11.9%
Coby Mayo2948428.6%279.2%34032.6%7.1%
Tyler O'Neill2095124.4%2210.5%26027.7%10.4%
Leody Taveras1805027.8%52.8%40124.2%9.0%
Yohel Pozo1682213.1%74.2%50SSSSSS
Dylan Beavers1373626.3%2619.0%24726.7%9.3%
Christian Encarnacion-Strand1373223.4%32.2%10426.9%4.8%
Samuel Basallo1183025.4%65.1%32626.4%8.0%

Coby Mayo's 2026 K% of 32.6% has climbed from a 2025 baseline of 28.6%. Colton Cowser (2026: 30.3%; 2025: 35.6%) remains elevated on both lines. Dylan Beavers (2026: 26.7%; 2025: 26.3%) and Samuel Basallo (2026: 26.4%; 2025: 25.4%) carry consistent elevated marks. Leody Taveras (2026: 24.2%; 2025: 27.8%) has pulled below 25% in 2026.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (2026 BB%: 4.8%; 2025: 2.2%) and Leody Taveras (2026 BB%: 9.0%; 2025: 2.8%) each carried sub-3% walk rates in 2025, with Taveras showing a sharp turnaround in 2026. Samuel Basallo (2026: 8.0%; 2025: 5.1%) has also moved above 6%, while Yohel Pozo posted a 2025 BB% of 4.2% with 50 PA in 2026. Dylan Beavers stands at the opposite end - 2026 BB%: 9.3%; 2025 baseline: 19.0%.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Alec Burleson39842.0%33.4%24.6%
Masyn Winn37639.6%34.0%26.3%
Iván Herrera28552.6%21.8%25.6%
Ramón Urías25345.1%29.2%25.7%
Pedro Pagés24344.9%30.9%24.3%
Jordan Walker23148.9%29.4%21.6%
José Fermín4637.0%32.6%30.4%
Nathan Church3767.6%21.6%10.8%
Jimmy Crooks2737.0%44.4%18.5%

Bassitt's 2025 ground-ball rate was 48.0% across 483 BIP, and his 2026 rate has climbed to 52.1% -- a groundball-heavy tendency facing a Cardinals lineup that skews the same direction. In 2025 profiles, Herrera (52.6% GB, 285 BIP), Walker (48.9%, 231 BIP), Urías (45.1%, 253 BIP), and Pagés (44.9%, 243 BIP) all sit in the 45-53% GB band, aligning naturally with what Bassitt induces. Winn (39.6% GB, 34.0% FB across 376 BIP) carries the most balanced air-ball profile among the regulars; Fermín's 30.4% LD rate across 46 BIP adds a hard-contact dimension in a smaller sample.

Orioles

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Jackson Holliday42850.9%26.2%22.9%
Pete Alonso42442.0%30.4%27.6%
Gunnar Henderson42351.1%22.5%26.5%
Carlos Narváez27747.3%31.8%20.9%
Colton Cowser18248.9%31.3%19.8%
Coby Mayo16838.1%42.3%19.6%
Yohel Pozo13340.6%33.1%26.3%
Tyler O'Neill12134.7%45.5%19.8%
Leody Taveras11433.3%40.4%26.3%
Christian Encarnacion-Strand9242.4%39.1%18.5%
Samuel Basallo7552.0%36.0%12.0%
Dylan Beavers7030.0%42.9%27.1%

The Orioles lineup carries a pronounced split in 2025 contact shape. Holliday (50.9% GB, 428 BIP), Henderson (51.1%, 423 BIP), and Basallo (52.0%, 75 BIP) all exceed 50% ground-ball rates, the heaviest groundball profiles in the order. Mayo (42.3% FB, 168 BIP), O'Neill (45.5% FB, 121 BIP), Taveras (40.4% FB, 114 BIP), and Beavers (42.9% FB, 70 BIP) run in the opposite direction, each generating fly balls at elevated rates. Alonso's 27.6% LD rate across 424 BIP adds a hard-contact dimension that sits outside either extreme. The Cardinals' starting pitcher has not been announced; the groundball bloc in the Baltimore order would fit a groundball arm's profile, while the elevated-FB contingent carries the greater exposure against a pitch-up approach.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

PitcherIPKK%BBBB%K/BB
Chris Bassitt170.116622.6%527.1%3.19

The Cardinals have not named a starter for today's game. Bassitt's 2025 profile shows a 22.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate, and a 3.19 K/BB ratio across 170.1 IP -- a command-forward baseline. Through 67.1 innings in 2026, both edges of that profile have narrowed: his strikeout rate sits at 14.9% and his walk rate has climbed to 8.4%, compressing the gap that gave his 2025 work its shape.

KEY MATCHUPS

Ramón Urías. Urías carries the richest career BvP line against Bassitt on this roster: .500/.556/.875 across 9 plate appearances, including a home run. Because Bassitt grows more difficult as games deepen, first-rotation at-bats from Urías hold the highest individual ceiling in the Cardinals' lineup tonight.

Alec Burleson. Burleson has posted the most damaging career line against Bassitt in this lineup: .600/.600/1.400 in 5 plate appearances, including a home run. As a left-handed hitter, he carries a structural platoon edge against a pitcher whose exposure to left-handed bats is his sharpest current vulnerability.

Cardinals Left-Handed Bats. Bassitt's steepest current exposure is against left-handed hitters: in 2026, lefties have posted a .333/.407/.524 line across 194 batters faced, a .931 OPS compared to .631 for right-handed hitters across 115 batters faced. The Cardinals' left-handed contingent tonight -- Burleson, Torres, Wetherholt, Crooks, and Church -- accounts for most of the batting order, giving the platoon edge repeated exposure.

Chris Bassitt. The .931 OPS against left-handed hitters in 2026 is not a single-season aberration: in 2025, lefties posted a 0.813 OPS against Bassitt over 419 plate appearances, compared to 0.646 for right-handed hitters over 317, establishing the split as a durable feature of his profile.

WATCHLIST

-- Chris Bassitt. Bassitt has pitched into a third pass in 10 of his 12 starts this season. If he works through St. Louis cleanly in the first two rotations, watch whether the Cardinals have already put runs on the board -- his third-pass stretch is where opposing bats have done the least damage in 2026, and the offensive window narrows sharply once he reaches it.

-- Chris Bassitt. If his 2026 BB% (8.4) spikes early, watch Cardinals hitters extend counts and push his pitch count -- forcing a second trip through the batting order before he can settle into his sharper late-game form.

-- Pedro Pagés. If Baltimore reaches base, Henderson (10 SB, 66.7% success in 2026) and Cowser (8 SB, 72.7%) present a legitimate running threat. Pagés has thrown out 31.5% of basestealing attempts this season -- watch whether that rate holds against the Orioles' most active baserunners.

-- Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday. If the Cardinals' left-handed starter is confirmed, watch whether platoon suppression materializes -- 2026 splits complicate the picture. Henderson has hit .222/.293/.419 in 184 PA against left-handers this season, compared to .224/.286/.318 in 210 PA in 2025, with the 2026 slugging notably higher. Holliday sits at .233/.333/.333 in 69 PA vs lefties in 2026, above his 2025 mark of .200/.263/.309 in 179 PA. The hand advantage the Cardinals' starter carries may be narrower than prior-year tracks alone would suggest.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Masyn Winn performed against Chris Bassitt in their career?

2. How has Alec Burleson performed against Chris Bassitt in their career?

3. How has Jordan Walker performed against Chris Bassitt in their career?

4. What were Chris Bassitt's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are JJ Wetherholt's splits against left-handed and right-handed pitchers in 2025?

6. What was Kyle Leahy's inherited-runner strand rate in 2025?

7. What is the park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?

700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025

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