YESTERDAY

Ryan Weathers delivered 6.0 innings (0 ER, 6 K), and solo home runs from Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2nd inning, HR 17) and George Lombard Jr. (5th inning, HR 1) were all New York needed in a 2-0 shutout. Hunter Dobbins went 6.1 innings for St. Louis, limiting the damage to those two blasts; Caleb Ferguson covered the final 1.2 innings scoreless.

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

AL EAST STANDINGS

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

STARTING PITCHERS

Andre Pallante (R, 11-6, 3.72 ERA): 118.2 IP in 21 starts, 86 K, 34 BB, 1.22 WHIP. His 2026 season is his strongest to date, built on an extreme ground-ball approach -- 61.2% GB rate (career, 515 BIP). His most notable 2026 development is a road/home split: 2.66 ERA away (44.0 IP) versus 4.34 at home (74.2 IP). Tonight he takes the mound at Yankee Stadium, where his road-side form applies directly.

Will Warren (R, 8-5, 4.14 ERA): 108.2 IP in 21 starts, 109 K, 36 BB, 1.36 WHIP. A strikeout-oriented right-hander: 24.1% K rate in 2025 (162.1 IP), 23.0% K in 2026. He sharpens at home: 3.75 ERA at Yankee Stadium in 2026 (48.0 IP) versus 4.45 on the road (60.2 IP). His 2025 home advantage was even more pronounced (3.19 ERA at home versus 5.16 away). His third-pass vulnerability has worsened in 2026: .930 OPS allowed when facing a lineup for the third time (93 BF, above the 60-BF analytical floor).

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-08-04)

Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).

Yankees (Projected from 2026-08-04)

Handedness: 6 RHB (Sánchez, Rosario, Volpe, Caballero, Schuemann, Goldschmidt), 6 LHB (Wells, Rice, Chisholm, McMahon, Jones, Grisham), 1 SHB (Domínguez).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

NYY -- Cody Bellinger (LF): On the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain (placed 2026-07-26). Not available tonight.

NYY -- Max Fried (LHP): Activated from the 15-day injured list on 2026-07-22. Available as bullpen option.

STL -- Jordan Walker (RF): Scratched from Tuesday's lineup with right knee inflammation (per pre-game notes); whether he stays out again tonight is unconfirmed. Walker is listed at RF batting 4th in the projected lineup above; watch the official batting order at first pitch. His 2026 season stats (.285/.343/.491, 22 HR, 81 RBI, 475 PA) represent a career-best campaign. If he sits again, the Cardinals enter with 2 confirmed right-handed bats in tonight's order (Herrera, Winn).

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2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

Small sample: Masyn Winn (6 PA), Iván Herrera (5 PA), Alec Burleson (5 PA), Jordan Walker (4 PA), Nathan Church (2 PA).

All five BvP rows carry small samples (2–6 PA). Alec Burleson's 2-for-4 line (.500 AVG, .600 OBP) in 5 PA is the standout number, though the sample is far too small for projection. Masyn Winn is 0-for-6 with 2 strikeouts -- the largest career sample against Warren in this table, and the roughest. Jordan Walker is 0-for-3 in 4 PA but sat Tuesday with right knee inflammation; if he sits again, his BvP history is moot for this game. No bench player currently on the active roster has career BvP history against Warren in this dataset. The Cardinals face Warren with essentially no meaningful historical read.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Small sample: Trent Grisham (6 PA), Amed Rosario (5 PA), Ben Rice (3 PA), Jazz Chisholm (4 PA), José Caballero (2 PA).

Ryan McMahon is the only Yankees batter with a double-digit career PA sample against Pallante: 10 PA, .250/.400/.750 with 1 home run. The .750 SLG in that sample signals air-ball contact from a pitcher whose career GB rate is 61.2% -- worth noting, though no batter clears the combined 10-PA and .400-AVG threshold for a formal danger-bat designation (McMahon's AVG is .250). Jazz Chisholm Jr. has a home run in 4 PA (.333 AVG, 1.333 SLG) -- high SLG, but well below the PA floor for analytical weight. Ben Rice is 2-for-3 (.667) in 3 PA -- a striking line without predictive value. No danger bat is flagged for tonight.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). The 2026 column never leads in this section -- 2025 vs-hand always leads, regardless of 2026 sample size.

Alec Burleson leads the Cardinals against right-handed pitching by a clear margin: .296/.353/.478 vs RHP in 2025 (419 PA). His 2026 companion (334 PA, above the 60-PA floor) shows .329 AVG, .967 OPS -- a meaningful improvement from the 2025 baseline. He is the Cardinals' primary offensive asset against Warren tonight. Iván Herrera (.268 AVG, .343 OBP vs RHP in 2025, 328 PA) and Masyn Winn (.251 AVG, .309 OBP in 2025, 374 PA) form the middle tier. The bottom of the order is a concern against a strikeout-oriented righty like Warren: Jimmy Crooks was .108/.132/.162 vs RHP in 2025 (38 PA); his 2026 companion (88 PA) shows modest improvement to .175 AVG, .563 OPS. Nathan Church was .114/.216/.182 in 51 PA vs RHP in 2025; 2026 companion (244 PA) improves to .230 AVG, .646 OPS. If Walker sits again tonight, the Cardinals enter with 2 confirmed RHBs (Herrera, Winn) and a lineup that is 5 of 8 left-handed bats against a righty.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). The 2026 column never leads in this section -- 2025 vs-hand always leads, regardless of 2026 sample size.

Pallante's 2025 vs-LHB (.763 OPS, 347 PA) and vs-RHB (.774 OPS, 368 PA) lines are nearly flat, suggesting no major platoon vulnerability in the 2025 baseline. His 2026 companion data is sharper: vs RHB .595 OPS (237 BF, above the 60-BF floor), vs LHB .731 OPS (259 BF, above floor). The Yankees' right-handed concentration (Goldschmidt, Rosario, Caballero, Sánchez, Schuemann, Volpe) runs into Pallante's strongest 2026 split (.595 OPS). Goldschmidt (R) has declined significantly: .201 AVG, .581 OPS vs RHP in 2026 (177 PA). The Yankees' left-handed bats (Rice, McMahon, Grisham, Wells, Chisholm) face Pallante's softer 2026 side (.731 OPS). Ben Rice stands out: .269 AVG, .504 SLG vs RHP in 2025 (411 PA), with a 2026 companion of .270 AVG, .972 OPS (302 PA). Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s 2026 vs-RHP is SSS (below 60-PA floor); his 2025 baseline (.240 AVG, .508 SLG, 384 PA) leads.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Both starters are right-handed. Pallante vs. tonight's Cardinals lineup (5+ LHBs if Walker sits again): his 2025 vs-LHB line is .763 OPS (347 PA); his 2026 companion (259 BF, above floor) shows .731 OPS -- both floors cleared, 2026 leads per the companion rule. His 2026 right-side advantage is the more significant split: .595 OPS vs RHB (237 BF, above floor). The Cardinals' heavy LHB concentration falls on Pallante's slightly weaker 2026 side (.731 vs .595). Warren vs. tonight's Cardinals lineup (LHBs batting 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 8th, 9th): his 2025 vs-LHB line is .786 OPS (396 PA); his 2026 companion (267 BF, above floor) shows .782 OPS -- consistent between years. His 2025 vs-RHB (.681 OPS, 315 PA) and 2026 companion (.740 OPS, 206 BF) both show a modest right-side advantage. If Walker sits again, the Cardinals run almost entirely left-handed bats against the side where Warren's OPS allowed is .782 -- not a dominant edge for the Yankees, but the structural platoon disadvantage exists for most of the Cardinals' order.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Tonight's game is at Yankee Stadium -- Pallante pitching away, Warren pitching at home. Pallante's 2026 road ERA is 2.66 (44.0 IP), his best sustained stretch of the season. His 2025 road ERA of 4.89 (84.2 IP) makes the 2026 improvement significant rather than a sample fluke. Warren's 2026 home ERA is 3.75 (48.0 IP) versus 4.45 away (60.2 IP). The Yankee Stadium home advantage is consistent with his 2025 historical split: 3.19 ERA at home (367 BF, 87.1 IP) versus 5.16 on the road (344 BF, 75.0 IP). The venue context tonight favors Warren's documented profile.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Pallante (2026): First pass through the order .688 OPS (189 BF), second pass .658 OPS (189 BF), third pass .648 OPS (118 BF). All three buckets clear the 60-BF floor, so 2026 leads. His 2026 TTO profile is nearly flat and slightly improves as the game progresses -- a departure from his 2025 profile where the second pass reached .868 OPS (270 PA). Tonight the Cardinals face a Pallante who in 2026 has shown no pronounced late-game vulnerability.

Warren (2026): First pass through the order .686 OPS (189 BF), second pass .759 OPS (187 BF), third pass .930 OPS (93 BF). All three buckets clear the 60-BF floor, so 2026 leads. Warren's third-pass number (.930 OPS) represents a steep and documented late-game vulnerability that has worsened from 2025 (.812 OPS, 128 PA). If the Cardinals can reach Warren's third time through their batting order -- roughly innings 7 and beyond -- they enter his highest-leverage target window. The case for patience early in tonight's game is grounded in this data.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

Riley O'Brien (closer, 2026: 44.2 IP, 3.43 ERA, 1.19 WHIP): 70.0% inherited runner strand rate (2025, 10 IR, 3 scored) -- above the approximate league average of 68-72%. He is the Cardinals' most reliable late-inning arm by the strand metric, and represents the likely primary cap on any Cardinals comeback opportunities.

Gordon Graceffo (2026: 56.1 IP, 3.04 ERA, 1.10 WHIP): 54.5% strand rate (2025, 11 IR, 5 scored) -- meaningfully below league average. When Graceffo inherits runners, he allows them to score at an elevated rate relative to the other relievers in this table. His strong ERA and WHIP may partly reflect sequencing context; his inherited-runner conversion rate is a real concern in high-leverage situations.

Kyle Leahy (2026: 107.1 IP, 3.44 ERA, 1.33 WHIP): 62.1% strand rate (2025, 29 IR, 11 scored) -- below league average. The largest sample in this table. His 2026 workload likely reflects starter or opener usage.

Michael McGreevy (2026: 120.1 IP, 3.59 ERA, 1.20 WHIP): 100.0% strand rate (2025, 1 entry: 3 runners, 0 scored). Single-entry sample -- treat as context only, not a projection. His 2026 volume and ERA are the more meaningful numbers for his overall profile.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- NYY

Pallante's 61.2% GB rate (2025 career, 515 BIP) is extreme. Most Yankees hitters produce ground balls at 37–50% rates (McMahon 46.0%, Chisholm 43.6%, Rosario 50.0%, Rice 43.1%, Goldschmidt 40.1%), so Pallante's approach should generate ground-ball-heavy contact. Yankees ground-ball AVGs range .200–.276, suggesting those balls will be weak. The line-drive picture is the counter: Goldschmidt (.713 LD AVG in 379 BIP), Rosario (.694 in 144 BIP), and Wells (.656 in 260 BIP) convert line drives at very high rates. Pallante's 19.6% career LD% allowed limits how often those situations arise, but when Yankees hitters do line a ball, it almost always falls.

Warren's 44.0% GB rate (448 BIP) is near league average, with 28.6% FB and 27.0% LD. The Cardinals' lineup profiles heavily toward ground balls: Nathan Church 67.6% GB (37 BIP), Iván Herrera 52.6% (285 BIP), Jordan Walker 48.9% (231 BIP, status tonight TBD). Active Cardinals will likely produce ground contact against Warren, which means beating a Yankee infield rather than generating fly-ball damage. Alec Burleson (42.0% GB, 33.4% FB, 24.6% LD in 398 BIP) is the most balanced profile in tonight's lineup and the most likely source of hard, varied contact.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

Note: Yohel Pozo (8 G, 6.93 ERA in this sample) is not on the Cardinals' current active roster. His battery data reflects an earlier period in the season and is included for completeness; it should not be treated as a current operational read. Of the active catchers, Pedro Pagés holds the largest sample with Pallante (15 G, 76.1 IP, 4.60 ERA, .257 AVG against). Iván Herrera (5 G, 23.2 IP, 4.56 ERA) is starting tonight as DH rather than catcher.

Tonight's starting catcher is Jimmy Crooks (confirmed via lineups.cardinals.players: position "C", batting 7th). Crooks has a 5-game paired sample with Pallante (23.1 IP, 4.24 ERA, .258 AVG against) -- the smallest active-catcher sample but the strongest ERA in that data. A fresh battery in a high-leverage road game carries sequencing uncertainty, particularly early when the battery is still syncing on approach.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Yankees baserunning leaders. José Caballero tops this lineup with 49 stolen bases at 81.7% success rate in 2026 -- among the most active and efficient basestealers in the American League. Jazz Chisholm Jr. adds 31 stolen bases at 79.5% success. Both are live stolen-base threats in any at-bat where they reach base, and the combination of their aggression with Jimmy Crooks (fresh battery pairing with Pallante) creates a meaningful sequence-management challenge. Crooks' career catching sample (14 G, 1.000 Fld%) shows clean receiving, but pop time data is not available in this report.

The remaining Yankees baserunners are less active: Austin Wells (5 SB, 83.3%), Paul Goldschmidt (5 SB, 83.3%), Ryan McMahon (3 SB, 75.0%), Ben Rice (3 SB, 60.0%), Trent Grisham (3 SB, 60.0%), and Amed Rosario (1 SB, 100.0%). Caballero and Chisholm account for 80 of the projected lineup's 100 stolen base attempts in 2026 and represent the primary baserunning concern for Pallante and Crooks throughout the night.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Tonight's Cardinals defensive alignment (per projected lineup): Masyn Winn at SS, Alec Burleson at 1B, Nolan Gorman at 3B, Lars Nootbaar at LF, Nathan Church at CF, Jimmy Crooks at C. Jordan Walker (RF, 108 G, .981 Fld%) sat Tuesday with right knee inflammation; if he sits again, his replacement from the bench defines the RF defensive situation for tonight. The fielding table reflects career fielding samples across multiple positions; cross-reference lineups.cardinals.players for tonight's specific assignment.

Masyn Winn at SS (129 G, 64 DP, 3 E, .994 Fld%) is the defensive anchor -- exceptional range and double-play production at the most important infield position. Nathan Church at CF (18 G, 0 E, 1.000 Fld%) has been clean in his center field sample. Jimmy Crooks at C (14 G, 0 E, 1.000 Fld%) is errorless in his catching sample. If Walker sits again, the RF slot carries the most defensive uncertainty, particularly for tracking line drives to right center in a spacious ballpark.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Recent head-to-head (2022–2025): Cardinals are 7-4 against the Yankees in the four-season sample: 3-0 in 2022, 2-1 in 2023, 2-1 in 2024, 0-3 in 2025 (New York swept the 2025 series). This 2026 series is tied 1-1 heading into tonight's deciding game 3.

Yankee Stadium context: Generally regarded as hitter-friendly, particularly for power. No numeric park factor is available in this dataset -- treat as a neutral-to-power-favorable venue without assigning a specific multiplier. Warren's home splits suggest the park environment has played to his benefit historically (3.19 ERA at home vs 5.16 away in 2025).

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Alec Burleson leads the projected lineup in contact quality: 14.5% K in 2025 (544 PA), with a 2026 companion of 15.7% K (478 PA, above 120-PA floor -- 2026 leads). His 2026 BB% of 8.4% improves on his 2025 baseline of 7.2%. Against Warren's 23.0% K rate (2026), Burleson's contact-first approach is the Cardinals' best structural offset. Jimmy Crooks carries the highest strikeout concern: 37.0% K in 2025 (46 PA); 2026 companion 33.3% (102 PA, above 60-PA floor -- 2026 leads). Warren should be able to generate strikeouts against the bottom of the order. Iván Herrera has the best plate discipline in the lineup: 17.3% K, 10.6% BB in 2026 (502 PA, 2026 leads) -- an improving walk rate and a modest K rate improvement from his 2025 baseline (18.7% K, 9.6% BB). Jordan Walker's 2026 K% improvement (31.8% in 2025 → 25.1% in 2026, 475 PA) is a meaningful development, though he sat Tuesday with a knee issue and his status tonight is unconfirmed.

Yankees

Ryan McMahon carries the highest K% in this group: 32.3% in 2025 (586 PA), 30.1% in 2026 (269 PA, 2026 leads). His 2025 BB% of 11.9% means he draws walks despite the high strikeout rate; his 2026 BB% dropped to 6.7% (2026 leads). Against Pallante's contact-first approach, McMahon's high K% should suppress his overall value unless he makes air-ball contact. Trent Grisham shows the best plate discipline: 14.1% BB in 2025 (581 PA), 12.8% BB in 2026 (374 PA, 2026 leads), with K% improving from 23.6% to 16.0% in 2026 -- a notable contact-rate gain. Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 27.9% K in 2025 (531 PA); 2026 sample below 120-PA floor (SSS), 2025 leads. Ben Rice: 2026 K% of 24.7% (465 PA, 2026 leads) has risen from 2025's 18.9%, while BB% improved to 11.8% -- more patient but more swing-and-miss. José Caballero: 2026 BB% dropped sharply to 5.7% (348 PA, 2026 leads) from 12.7% in 2025 -- a meaningful regression in on-base value that affects his setup value despite his baserunning ability.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Nathan Church at 67.6% GB (37 BIP) is the heaviest ground-ball hitter in the lineup -- a profile that meshes with Warren's 44.0% GB approach and generates contact for the Yankee infield rather than outfield gaps. Iván Herrera at 52.6% GB (285 BIP) is the next-heaviest. Jordan Walker (48.9% GB, status tonight unconfirmed) would be the third if he plays. The Cardinals batting order on the field tonight is tilted toward ground contact, meaning their best path to extra-base damage runs through Alec Burleson: his 24.6% LD rate (398 BIP) is the highest in the lineup and the most likely source of hard, varied contact against Warren.

Yankees

Against Pallante's 61.2% GB career rate (515 BIP), the Yankees lineup will produce ground-ball-heavy contact: most hitters fall in the 37–50% GB range. Yankees ground-ball AVGs of .200–.279 indicate that contact will be weak when it goes down. The line-drive picture is the primary counter: Paul Goldschmidt (.713 LD AVG in 379 BIP), Amed Rosario (.694 in 144 BIP), and Austin Wells (.656 in 260 BIP) convert line drives at very high rates. Pallante's 19.6% career LD% allowed keeps those situations rare, but when Yankees hitters do line one, it falls for a hit at an exceptional rate. José Caballero (.564 LD AVG, 27.4% LD rate in 201 BIP) is the highest-frequency line-drive threat in the lineup despite modest overall numbers.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

Andre Pallante (2025: 15.5% K, 8.7% BB, 1.79 K/BB, 162.2 IP): A contact-management arm. He generates outs primarily through weak contact rather than swing-and-miss. His 2026 season (17.3% K, 6.9% BB in 118.2 IP) shows a modest K rate improvement alongside a lower walk rate -- a real development. For the Yankees, putting the ball in play is the required path; waiting for walks will not work against a low-BB pitcher.

Will Warren (2025: 24.1% K, 9.1% BB, 2.63 K/BB, 162.1 IP): A genuine swing-and-miss arm whose K rate is 8.6 percentage points higher than Pallante's 2025 mark. His 2026 season (23.0% K, 7.6% BB in 108.2 IP) sustains the pattern. Against Warren, passive plate appearances are costly -- strikeouts are the expected outcome against a 2.63 K/BB pitcher unless batters put the ball in play. Contact-based offense, particularly from Alec Burleson and Iván Herrera, is the Cardinals' realistic path against him.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Alec Burleson vs. Will Warren. Burleson enters with 2-for-4 (.500 AVG, .600 OBP) in 5 career PA against Warren -- the best head-to-head number any Cardinal carries tonight. He pairs that with a 2025 vs-RHP baseline of .296/.353/.478 (419 PA) and a 2026 companion of .329 AVG, .967 OPS (334 PA). He is the Cardinals' primary offensive engine against a right-hander, and how Warren sequences him in innings 1-3 -- before Burleson has his fullest read on the arsenal -- shapes the rest of the game. Burleson's .344 RISP AVG in 2026 makes him the Cardinals' most dangerous bat with runners on base as well.

Ryan McMahon vs. Andre Pallante. McMahon is the only Yankees batter with a double-digit career PA sample against Pallante: 10 PA, .250/.400/.750 with 1 home run. Pallante's 61.2% GB rate generates ground-ball-heavy contact from most hitters, but McMahon has found the ball in the air against him in confirmed at-bats. His 2025 vs-RHP baseline is .223 AVG, .415 SLG (457 PA); his 2026 companion is .222 AVG, .688 OPS (212 PA, 2026 leads). He is the most documented threat in the Yankees' career BvP sample against Pallante.

Third time through the order -- the Cardinals' structural window. Warren's 2026 OPS allowed reaches .930 in his third pass through the lineup (93 BF, above the 60-BF analytical floor) -- up from .759 in his second pass and .686 in his first. When the Cardinals cycle through their batting order for the third time, roughly innings 7 and beyond, they reach Warren's most hittable documented stretch. Whether New York's bullpen closes that window before the Cardinals capitalize is the game's central structural question. Track the at-bat count against Warren through the first six innings.

José Caballero and Jazz Chisholm Jr. on base. Caballero has 49 stolen bases at 81.7% success in 2026; Chisholm Jr. adds 31 at 79.5%. Jimmy Crooks starts behind the plate tonight in a fresh battery pairing with Pallante -- their shared 5-game career sample is the smallest among active catchers. Any Caballero or Chisholm on-base situation is a live stolen-base event. Pallante's ground-ball approach helps limit baserunners, but when either reaches, the Cardinals' battery is managing the most active basestealers in tonight's lineup.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Alec Burleson performed against Will Warren in their career?
2. How has Andre Pallante fared against Ryan McMahon in their career?
3. How has José Caballero performed against Riley O'Brien in their career?
4. What are Will Warren's times-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Alec Burleson's splits against right-handed pitching in 2025?
6. How often does Riley O'Brien strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Yankee Stadium in 2025?

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