YESTERDAY

Alec Burleson went 3-for-5 with 3 home runs (Nos. 16, 17, 18) and 6 RBI as the Cardinals rallied from a 7th-inning deficit to beat New York 13-7 last night at Yankee Stadium. Nathan Church drove in 4 runs — a run-scoring single in the 3rd inning and a 3-run home run in the 8th (No. 9) — with Blaze Jordan and Masyn Winn on base. Jimmy Crooks launched a 2-run home run (No. 4) in the same frame. The Cardinals trailed 6-7 entering the 8th after Ryne Stanek (0.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 HR) and George Soriano (0.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 HR) allowed 4 runs in the 7th inning, then erupted for 7 runs to win going away. Michael McGreevy started and yielded 2 earned runs in 4.1 innings; Gordon Graceffo closed the final 2.0 innings without allowing a hit.

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

AL EAST STANDINGS

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

STARTING PITCHERS

Hunter Dobbins (R, 2-1, 3.74 ERA, 33.2 IP, 4 GS). Dobbins is in his fourth major-league start of 2026, carrying 32 strikeouts and 11 walks (WHIP: 1.34). His 2026 platoon splits both clear the 60-BF floor: vs LHB .634 OPS (71 BF) and vs RHB .832 OPS (72 BF) — a 2025 baseline that favored LHB suppression (.746 vs .683 OPS) has inverted in 2026. All three 2026 TTO buckets are below the 60-BF floor (36/36/13 BF), making his 2025 TTO baseline the operative reference. His 2025 away ERA of 4.70 (23.0 IP, 98 BF) is the primary guide for tonight's road start at Yankee Stadium; his 2026 away sample of 14.2 IP falls below the 20-IP floor.

Ryan Weathers (L, 4-7, 3.99 ERA, 115.0 IP, 21 GS). Weathers is the established veteran in this pairing at 115.0 innings and 126 strikeouts (K%: 26.1%, WHIP: 1.24). The most analytically significant feature of his profile is the complete inversion of his times-through-order splits: a 2025 TTO2 of .880 OPS (69 PA) has become a 2026 TTO2 of .622 OPS (184 BF) — now his best current split. His 2026 home ERA of 4.50 (64.0 IP) is weaker than his 2026 road ERA of 3.35 (51.0 IP), working against him in tonight's home start.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-08-03)

Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 5 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Crooks, Gorman, Church); LF slot TBD following the Nootbaar trade.

Yankees (Projected from 2026-08-03)

Handedness: 6 RHB (Sánchez, Rosario, Volpe, Caballero, Schuemann, Goldschmidt), 6 LHB (Wells, Rice, Chisholm, McMahon, Jones, Grisham), 1 SHB (Domínguez).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Yankees

Max Fried (LHP) — activated from 15-day IL (2026-07-22).

Cody Bellinger (LF) — placed on 10-day IL (2026-07-26); left hamstring strain.

Cardinals

No current IL activity reported.

Roster Note

The Cardinals traded Lars Nootbaar, Dustin May, and JoJo Romero. The 2026-08-03 projection was set before the trade was reflected and originally carried Nootbaar at LF; that slot is shown as TBD above pending tonight's confirmed lineup. Subsequent roster pulls should exclude Nootbaar, May, and Romero.

editorial direction: operator-supplied

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

Small sample: Iván Herrera (3 PA), Masyn Winn (2 PA), Alec Burleson (2 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA).

All BvP samples are extremely small (maximum 3 PA). Iván Herrera's 1 HR in 3 career PA vs Weathers is the only signal worth noting, though 3 PA carries no predictive weight. Use as historical context only; the platoon and TTO data below provide the operative analytical foundation for tonight.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Small sample: Ben Rice (5 PA), Trent Grisham (5 PA), Paul Goldschmidt (4 PA), Jazz Chisholm (4 PA), Austin Wells (2 PA), José Caballero (1 PA).

Largest samples are 5 PA each for Ben Rice and Trent Grisham — both showing .200/.200/.200. Paul Goldschmidt is 0-for-4. None of these samples are large enough to inform tonight's matchup in any directional way. The section is decorative context at this volume.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). The 2026 column never leads in this section -- 2025 vs-hand always leads, regardless of 2026 sample size.

Weathers throws left; the Cardinals' right-handed bats carry the platoon advantage tonight. Jordan Walker is the standout: his 2026 vs-LHP line is .913 OPS (123 PA, above the 60-PA floor). Iván Herrera's 2026 vs-LHP OPS is .804 (149 PA) — a step down in batting average from his elite 2025 .330/.455/.660 baseline (124 PA), but the OPS holds. Among the LHB starters, Alec Burleson's 2026 vs-LHP line of .199 AVG/.530 OPS (144 PA) is a meaningful step back from his 2025 .271/.310/.398 profile — watch how Weathers sequences against him. Nathan Church's .417/.417/.500 in 14 PA vs LHP (2025) is a compelling small-sample note, though his 2026 vs-LHP OPS (65 PA, .637) is the more current read. Crooks (8 PA vs LHP in 2025) and Church's 2025 line both sit below the 60-PA companion floor, showing SSS.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). The 2026 column never leads in this section -- 2025 vs-hand always leads, regardless of 2026 sample size.

Dobbins throws right; NYY's left-handed bats carry the platoon advantage. Ben Rice leads the pool: his 2026 vs-RHP OPS is .971 (299 PA) — the highest-danger number in the NYY lineup against tonight's starter, representing a major improvement over his 2025 vs-RHP line of .269/.356/.504. Ryan McMahon (2026: .688 OPS, 209 PA) and Trent Grisham (2026: .692 OPS, 265 PA) are consistent without being threatening. Among the right-handed bats, Amed Rosario's 2026 vs-RHP line is a striking .844 OPS (70 PA, above the 60-PA floor) — the only RHB with a notably strong 2026 split. Paul Goldschmidt (RHB) is down to .581 OPS vs RHP in 2026 (177 PA). Jazz Chisholm's 2026 data shows SSS; his 2025 baseline of .240/.336/.508 (384 PA) leads.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Both 2026 companion figures for Dobbins clear the 60-BF floor (71 BF vs LHB, 72 BF vs RHB). His 2025 baseline favored RHB suppression (.683 OPS, 132 PA) over LHB (.746 OPS, 124 PA). The 2026 data inverts this: vs LHB .634 OPS (71 BF), vs RHB .832 OPS (72 BF). The elevated 2026 RHB line runs counter to his 2025 track record — a trend to monitor as the sample grows. Weathers's 2025 vs-LHB line (32 PA, .848 OPS, flagged in red) is a small-sample warning. His 2026 companion (111 BF, .725 OPS vs LHB, above the 60-BF floor) shows the worst of that 2025 split has not fully carried forward, though the gap vs RHB (.707 OPS, 371 BF) has narrowed considerably. The Cardinals' 6-LHB lineup faces a lefty whose historical LHB struggles have softened in 2026.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Dobbins pitches at Yankee Stadium tonight (away). His 2025 away ERA of 4.70 (23.0 IP, 98 BF) is a meaningful gap from his 2025 home ERA of 2.61 (38.0 IP). Both 2026 ERA figures show SSS — the road sample at 14.2 IP and home at 19.0 IP are both below the 20-IP floor. The 2025 road-home differential is the operative baseline for tonight's start. Weathers pitches at home, where his 2026 ERA is 4.50 (64.0 IP — well above the 20-IP floor). His 2026 road ERA of 3.35 (51.0 IP) is the stronger half of the split; tonight's home venue works against his recent trend.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PRIMARY ANGLE: Times Through the Order

Weathers 2025 baseline: TTO1 .671 OPS (72 PA), TTO2 .880 OPS (69 PA), TTO3 .501 OPS (25 PA). His 2025 TTO2 was the most exploitable split on his profile — a .880 OPS across 69 PA in the middle innings of his starts. The 2026 picture tells a dramatically different story. All three 2026 buckets clear the 60-BF floor: TTO1 .759 OPS (190 BF), TTO2 .622 OPS (184 BF), TTO3 .777 OPS (108 BF). Weathers has made his second pass his best current split, not his worst — a complete inversion. The 184-BF sample behind the 2026 TTO2 line is large enough to treat as a genuine signal, not noise. Any Cardinals gameplan anchored on the historical second-pass cliff needs to be recalibrated around where Weathers actually lives in 2026.

Dobbins 2025 baseline: TTO1 .578 OPS (116 PA), TTO2 .813 OPS (105 PA), TTO3 .855 OPS (35 PA) — a classic arc of declining effectiveness as batters see him more. All three 2026 TTO buckets are below the 60-BF floor: TTO1 at 36 BF, TTO2 at 36 BF, TTO3 at 13 BF (all show SSS). At 33.2 innings across 4 starts, meaningful 2026 TTO depth will not accumulate for several more starts. The 2025 baseline guides the read for tonight: if NYY reaches Dobbins a second or third time, historical data suggests the exposure grows sharply each pass.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

League average IR strand rate: 68.8%. Riley O'Brien leads the Cardinals' charted relievers at 70.0% (10 IR) — just above the benchmark. Kyle Leahy carries the highest volume (29 IR) at 62.1%, below the league line across a meaningful sample. Gordon Graceffo (11 IR, 54.5% strand) shows the widest gap between overall ERA (3.04 in 56.1 IP) and strand efficiency; the divergence can matter in high-leverage sequences where he enters with runners on base. McGreevy's 100.0% strand rate comes from only 3 IR — too small a sample to treat as a predictive signal.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- NYY

Dobbins generates grounders at a 50.0% rate (186 BIP, career), above the 47.1% league average. Against a ground-ball-heavy pitcher, the most dangerous NYY hitters are those who can elevate contact into line drives: Paul Goldschmidt leads the group at a career .713 LD average, followed by Amed Rosario (.694) and Austin Wells (.656). Jazz Chisholm (.593) and José Caballero (.564) also profile as LD-over-FB producers. Weathers allows a higher fly-ball rate (33.9%, 109 BIP) than Dobbins, which creates more power upside for Cardinals hitters. Jimmy Crooks's career 44.4% FB rate (27 BIP) stands apart from his teammates and creates an interesting intersection with Weathers's elevated fly-ball-allowed tendency.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

Carlos Narváez and Connor Wong — the two catchers listed above — reflect Dobbins's prior-organization battery pairings and are not on the Cardinals' active roster. Tonight's battery is Dobbins–Crooks. Jimmy Crooks (C, batting 7th per the projected lineup) has 14 career games at catcher with a 1.000 fielding percentage in 2025.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

NYY Baserunning Profile (2025)

José Caballero leads the NYY pool with 49 stolen bases in 2025 at 81.7% success — the most active base-stealing threat in the lineup. Jazz Chisholm adds 31 SB at 79.5%. Both are primary concerns for the Dobbins–Crooks battery if they reach base. Wells (83.3%), Goldschmidt (83.3%), and Rosario (100%, 1 SB) show high efficiency but low volume. Rice (60.0%) and Grisham (60.0%) fall below the standard 70% efficiency benchmark.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Tonight's positions per the projected lineup: Winn at SS, Walker at RF, Burleson at 1B, Church at CF, Crooks at C, Herrera at DH (not C). The defense table reflects career historical data across all positions. Winn's .994 fielding percentage at SS (129 career games) is the anchor. Note that Herrera is listed here at C historically — tonight he is the DH; Jimmy Crooks catches.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

STL vs. NYY Head-to-Head (Recent Seasons)

The Cardinals went 0-3 against the Yankees in 2025 before last night's 13-7 win opened this 2026 series. STL leads the current series 1-0 (Game 2 of 3 tonight). Yankee Stadium is tonight's venue. The Cardinals' lineup leans heavily left-handed (6 LHB), amplifying the significance of the platoon splits against left-handed Weathers.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

League average: 22.1% K, 8.9% BB. 2026 companion leads at 120+ PA vs this pitcher's hand; below floor (Crooks at 102 PA, 2025 leads), 2025 data leads. Wetherholt and Gorman have no historical Neon data available.

Burleson is the most disciplined strikeout-avoider (2025: 14.5% K; 2026: 15.7% K in 477 PA — 2026 leads). Walker's 2025 K rate of 31.8% has declined to 25.1% in 2026 (475 PA) — a meaningful improvement. Church's 2026 K rate of 20.1% (308 PA) is also down from 27.7% in 2025. Crooks (2025: 37.0% K, 0.0% BB; 2026: 33.3% K, 6.9% BB in 102 PA) carries the highest combined risk profile — 2025 data leads given the 102-PA 2026 sample is below the 120-PA floor.

Yankees

League average: 22.1% K, 8.9% BB. 2026 companion leads at 120+ PA; below floor (Sánchez at 59 PA), 2025 leads. Jazz Chisholm 2026 data unavailable.

Trent Grisham shows the most improved 2026 K rate in the NYY pool: 16.2% (down from 23.6% in 2025) in 370 PA, with a 13.0% BB rate that leads the group. Ben Rice's 2026 K rate climbed to 24.7% (461 PA) from 18.9% in 2025, but his BB rate of 11.5% also improved meaningfully. Austin Wells's 2026 BB rate of 11.8% (254 PA) is up from 6.7% in 2025, showing improved plate discipline despite a stable K rate. José Caballero's BB rate dropped from 12.7% (2025) to 5.7% in 2026 (348 PA) — a notable regression in discipline. Amed Rosario's 2026 K rate (26.6%, 192 PA) has climbed from 16.2% in 2025.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Career batted ball data. Wetherholt and Gorman have no historical Neon data available.

Nathan Church's extreme 67.6% GB rate (37 BIP) aligns with Weathers's 46.8% GB-inducing tendency — limited power upside in those matchups. Jimmy Crooks's career 44.4% FB rate (27 BIP) stands apart from the Cardinals lineup and creates an angle against Weathers's 33.9% fly-ball-allowed rate. Iván Herrera's 52.6% GB tendency may suppress his offensive output when Weathers induces grounders against the right-handed DH.

Yankees

With Dobbins generating 50.0% grounders, the NYY lineup's LD averages are the most consequential metric. Paul Goldschmidt leads the group at a career .713 LD average (379 BIP), followed by Amed Rosario (.694, 144 BIP) and Ryan McMahon (.639, 291 BIP). José Caballero (.564 LD, .143 FB, 201 BIP) and Jazz Chisholm (.593 LD, .125 FB, 280 BIP) also profile as hitters who convert elevated contact into hits far more readily than fly balls. Dobbins's GB-inducing style suppresses easy offense — but when these hitters do get the ball in the air as a line drive, the damage is typically severe.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

League average: 22.1% K, 8.9% BB. 2025 data only in this table.

Weathers holds the strikeout advantage: his 2025 K rate of 22.3% (166 BFP) sits at the league average of 22.1%, with a 3.08 K/BB ratio. Dobbins's 17.6% K rate is below average, but his 6.6% BB rate (well below the 8.9% league mark) is where he creates value. Command is Dobbins's primary weapon — he lives on contact and batted-ball shape rather than generating misses. The contrast frames tonight's game: Weathers is more likely to record strikeouts, while Dobbins relies on getting early contact in favorable counts.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Key Matchups

Jordan Walker and Iván Herrera vs. Weathers (LHP). Walker's 2026 vs-LHP line is .913 OPS (123 PA) and Herrera's is .804 OPS (149 PA) — the Cardinals' right-handed bats carry the platoon advantage tonight. Herrera also has 1 career HR in 3 PA vs Weathers. Both 2026 figures clear the 60-PA companion floor, making these the most reliable offensive edges in the STL lineup against a lefty.

Ben Rice vs. Dobbins (RHP). Rice (LHB) carries a .971 OPS vs right-handed pitching in 2026 (299 PA) — the highest-danger bat in the NYY pool for tonight's Cardinals starter. His 2025 vs-RHP baseline was .269/.356/.504 (411 PA); the 2026 production represents a substantial leap that should anchor how the Dobbins–Crooks battery sequences against him.

Weathers's TTO2 inversion. His 2025 TTO2 was a .880 OPS cliff (69 PA) — the most exploitable historical split on his card. In 2026, TTO2 reads .622 OPS across 184 BF — now his best current split. The window where the Cardinals might expect a second-pass surge has closed. First-pass execution, using Walker and Herrera's platoon edge in the early innings, becomes the primary offensive strategy.

Dobbins at Yankee Stadium. His 2025 road ERA of 4.70 (23.0 IP, 98 BF) sets the baseline for tonight; the 2026 away ERA shows SSS at 14.2 IP. NYY has historically found Dobbins more exposed on the second time through the order (2025 TTO2: .813 OPS, 105 PA) — though that 2026 bucket also shows SSS. The 2025 TTO pattern is the best available guide for how NYY should approach their at-bats as the game deepens.

Watchlist

Crooks behind the plate. Tonight's battery is Dobbins–Crooks. José Caballero (49 SB, 81.7% success, 2025) and Jazz Chisholm (31 SB, 79.5%) are the primary base-stealing threats. Jimmy Crooks (14 career games at catcher, 1.000 Fld%) will face his first extended test against an active Yankees running game.

Masyn Winn vs. LHP recovery. Winn was 0-for-4 with 3 strikeouts last night. His 2025 vs-LHP profile is .255/.313/.349 (163 PA), with a 2026 companion of .287 avg/.730 OPS (109 PA). His contact-first approach against Weathers tests whether the previous night's struggles carry over or reset.

Amed Rosario's 2026 jump. Rosario (RHB) shows a .844 OPS vs RHP in 2026 (70 PA, above the 60-PA companion floor) — the only RHB in the NYY pool with a notably strong 2026 line against tonight's Cardinals starter. At 70 PA the sample is meaningful but still building; watch whether he continues this trend as the game deepens.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

First pitch: 6:05 PM CT, Yankee Stadium (STL away)
Starters: Hunter Dobbins (R, 3.74 ERA, 33.2 IP, 2-1, 4 GS) vs Ryan Weathers (L, 3.99 ERA, 115.0 IP, 4-7, 21 GS)
Tonight's battery (STL): Dobbins–Crooks
Series context: STL leads 1-0, Game 2 of 3
Key TTO split: Weathers 2026 TTO2 .622 OPS (184 BF) — his best current split; was .880 OPS in 2025
BvP note: Iván Herrera — 1 HR in 3 career PA vs Weathers (SSS)
NYY running threats: José Caballero (49 SB, 81.7%), Jazz Chisholm (31 SB, 79.5%)
Cardinals bullpen depth (2026): O'Brien (CL, 3.43 ERA / 44.2 IP), Graceffo (3.04 / 56.1 IP), Leahy (3.44 / 107.1 IP), Stanek (4.74 / 43.2 IP)
STL recent: W2 streak — W 13-7 (NYY, Aug 3), W 5-1 (TOR, Aug 2)