Player	Pos	Bats
Myers	CF	R
Arroyo	2B	S
Cruz	SS	S
Suárez	DH	R
Bleday	LF	L
Trevino	C	R
Hayes	3B	R
Lowe	DH	L
Marte	RF	R
Stewart	1B	R
Steer	1B	R
Friedl	CF	L
Stephenson	C	R

Handedness: 8 RHB (Myers, Suárez, Trevino, Hayes, Marte, Stewart, Steer, Stephenson), 3 LHB (Bleday, Lowe, Friedl), 2 SHB (Arroyo, Cruz).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Roster flag: Nolan Gorman (3B) appears in the Cardinals' projected lineup (from 2026-07-23) but does not appear on today's active roster. Blaze Jordan (3B) is confirmed on the active roster and is available but is not projected in the starting lineup. Confirm the 3B alignment at first pitch -- the projection may not reflect a roster transaction completed after July 23.

No additional injury or roster-move data is available for today's Cardinals-Reds game beyond the roster status noted above. The Reds' lineup has not been confirmed; all 13 position players listed above are from the active roster pool.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

Small sample: Lars Nootbaar (2 PA), Alec Burleson (2 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA).

Thin career BvP across the board. Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, and Jordan Walker each have 2 PA against Lowder -- all hitless. These 2-PA samples carry no statistical weight. JJ Wetherholt, Iván Herrera, Masyn Winn, Jimmy Crooks, Nolan Gorman, and Nathan Church have no career BvP history against Lowder in our sample. The Cardinals are going in essentially blind on Lowder -- this is a profile matchup, not a history matchup.

Bench note: No bench BvP history vs. Lowder in our career sample (Jordan, Torres, Fermin, Velazquez, Pages -- no rows).

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Small sample: Nathaniel Lowe (6 PA), Eugenio Suárez (6 PA), JJ Bleday (5 PA), Jose Trevino (3 PA).

Two Reds batters have meaningful career BvP history against May: Eugenio Suárez (3-for-6, .500 AVG, 1.000 SLG, 1 HR) and Nathaniel Lowe (2-for-6, .333 AVG, .833 SLG, 1 HR). Both samples are small at 6 PA each, but both show power against May. JJ Bleday has 5 PA against May (.000 AVG, .400 OBP -- 1 BB, 2 K) and Jose Trevino is 0-for-3. Myers, Arroyo, De La Cruz, Hayes, Marte, Stewart, Steer, Friedl, and Stephenson have no career BvP rows against May in our sample.

Danger bat threshold: Neither Suárez nor Lowe reaches 10 PA, so neither clears the formal danger bat threshold (10 PA and .400 AVG). The BvP signal is real but directional -- treat as a tendency, not a definitive pattern.

Bench note: No significant bench BvP history against May in our career sample (roster-only opponent lineup; data covers the players listed above).

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

Tonight's Cardinals face Lowder (R), making the 2025 vs-RHP sample directly applicable to the full projected lineup. The handedness summary shows 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church) vs. 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn). JJ Wetherholt and Nolan Gorman have no 2025 vs-RHP sample on file.

Alec Burleson leads this group with a .296 AVG and .478 SLG vs. RHP in 2025 (419 PA, 15 HR) -- the most established track record at a meaningful sample size. Lars Nootbaar (.249 AVG, .394 SLG, 403 PA) and Iván Herrera (.268 AVG, .399 SLG, 328 PA) round out the reliable producers. Jordan Walker is the concern: .200 AVG and .263 OBP vs. RHP in 289 PA. Nathan Church (.114 AVG, 51 PA) and Jimmy Crooks (.108 AVG, 38 PA) are both below-average contact performers vs. RHP, though both samples are limited.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

The Reds roster pool contains 8 RHB, 3 LHB, and 2 SHB. Against May (R), the three left-handed bats (TJ Friedl, Nathaniel Lowe, JJ Bleday) carry the platoon advantage -- May's 2025 LHB OPS allowed is .852 vs. .711 against RHBs. Edwin Arroyo and Elly De La Cruz (switch-hitters) would bat from the left side vs. a right-handed starter, adding to the LHB exposure.

TJ Friedl (.268 AVG, .378 OBP, .394 SLG vs. RHP in 487 PA) is the most established LHB in the pool with a 11.8% BB rate in 2025. Nathaniel Lowe (.252 AVG, .333 OBP, .429 SLG, 438 PA, 16 HR) brings legitimate power to the LHB platoon spot. JJ Bleday is the outlier LHB at .180 AVG and a 26.5% K rate vs. RHP (271 PA).

On the RHB side, Eugenio Suárez leads the power profile: .252 AVG, .552 SLG, 36 HR vs. RHP in 473 PA (29.8% K%). Noelvi Marte (.275 AVG, .516 SLG, 13 HR in 256 PA) is a dangerous contact-power combination despite a 4.4% BB rate. Jose Trevino (.255 AVG, .288 OBP in 223 PA) and Ke'Bryan Hayes (.242 AVG, .319 SLG in 449 PA) are lower-ceiling RHBs in the 2025 sample. Sal Stewart's 51 PA is too limited to weight heavily.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

May's 2025 platoon data shows a clear directional split. Against RHBs (250 PA), he allows a .711 OPS with 6 HR -- his more favorable matchup. Against LHBs (334 PA), the line rises to a .852 OPS with 15 HR -- his more vulnerable side. Tonight's Reds roster pool is RHB-heavy (8 RHB) but brings three LHBs (TJ Friedl, Nathaniel Lowe, JJ Bleday) and two switch-hitters (Edwin Arroyo, Elly De La Cruz) who will bat from the left side against a right-handed starter. May is well-positioned against the RHB core, but the LHB exposure is real and Lowe is the primary concern.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Tonight's game is at Busch Stadium -- May is pitching at home. His home ERA (3.24, 75.0 IP, 326 BF, 9 HR, 73 K) is a substantially better context than his road ERA (6.28, 57.1 IP, 258 BF, 12 HR, 50 K). The home/road gap -- 3.24 at Busch Stadium vs. 6.28 on the road -- is the most favorable structural element in May's profile for tonight. His home context is where May keeps the ball in the park and sequences effectively.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

May's 2025 TTO splits show a clear first-pass advantage that dissolves in subsequent passes. In the first pass through the order (TTO1), he holds opponents to a .226 AVG and .652 OPS in 227 PA (5 HR). Hitters seeing May for the first time struggle to do damage.

In the second pass through the order (TTO2), the line jumps to .290 AVG and .878 OPS in 220 PA (9 HR). The .652 TTO1 OPS vs. .878 TTO2 OPS is the critical pattern in tonight's game -- May is effective through roughly innings 1-3, and exposure builds in innings 4-6. Nine HR in 220 TTO2 PA is not a quality-start profile.

In the third pass through the order (TTO3), the line holds near the TTO2 level: .263 AVG, .882 OPS in 137 PA (7 HR). Hitters seeing May a third time are as dangerous as the second pass. The implication for tonight: getting May through the first pass is the Cardinals' best-case scenario. When the bullpen enters in the TTO2 window, the reliever's inherited-runner strand rate becomes the deciding variable.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

The Cardinals' 2025 inherited runner strand rates show a wide spread. Riley O'Brien leads at 70.0% (10 IR) -- above the league-average range of ~68-72%. Kyle Leahy is at 62.1% (29 IR) -- below league average but with the largest sample of the group. Michael McGreevy's 100.0% strand rate is a 3-IR sample and should not be over-weighted.

Gordon Graceffo (54.5%, 11 IR) and Matt Svanson (50.0%, 26 IR) are the most concerning entries -- both well below the league-average range. Svanson's 50.0% strand rate is the lowest in the group with a substantial sample (26 IR). He allowed 3 ER in 0.2 IP yesterday while inheriting runners. If Svanson enters mid-inning with the game close tonight, his 50.0% strand rate is the Cardinals' most exploitable bullpen vulnerability.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- CIN

May's career batted-ball profile shows a 44.1% GB rate (372 BIP) -- a ground-ball-leaning pitcher who also allows a 26.6% line-drive rate. His 2026 to-date GB% (47.5%) is comparable. The Reds' career hitter batted ball data shows line drives are the most dangerous contact type across the lineup -- every Reds hitter in the sample hits above .550 on line drives. For May, keeping the Reds off line drives is the primary contact-management task.

Dane Myers (.702 LD AVG, 57 AB on lines) and Noelvi Marte (.704 LD AVG, 54 AB on lines) are the most line-drive dependent hitters in the sample. Both hit grounders in the mid-.200s and fly balls well below .100 -- for them, the only good outcome is a line drive. May's ability to induce ground balls against Myers (45.9% GB in 2025) and Marte (48.8% GB in 2025) would suppress their ceiling.

On the fly-ball risk side: Eugenio Suárez (41.4% FB in 2025, .552 SLG vs. RHP) and JJ Bleday (41.1% FB in 2025) both elevate balls at a high rate. May's 28.2% FB allowed rate means a fly-ball-heavy matchup can produce extra-base damage from Suárez in particular.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

The catchers shown above -- Will Smith (11 G, 56.0 IP, 4.98 ERA), Dalton Rushing (6 G, 34.2 IP, 3.89 ERA), Carlos Narváez (4 G, 21.0 IP, 4.71 ERA), Austin Barnes (2 G), Connor Wong (2 G) -- reflect May's prior tenure; Smith and Rushing are recognizable Dodgers catchers from May's Los Angeles years before he joined the Cardinals. None of these catchers are on the Cardinals' active roster today.

Tonight's scheduled catcher is Jimmy Crooks (batting 7th per the projected lineup, confirmed at position C in today's lineup data). Crooks has 0 career innings paired with May in our sample -- a fresh battery. That is a signal in itself: watch for early pitch-selection calibration sequences in the first pass through the order as Crooks and May establish their in-game signal library. Rushing's 3.89 ERA in 34.2 IP represents May's strongest historical pairing, but that context is Dodger-era and does not translate to tonight's setup.

Catcher consistency check: The lineup data confirms Crooks (position "C", order 7) as tonight's starting catcher. This matches the annotation above -- no discrepancy.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

The Reds present an active baserunning threat against tonight's projected battery of Dustin May and Jimmy Crooks.

Dane Myers leads the active roster pool with 18 SB (78.3% success rate in 2025). TJ Friedl and Ke'Bryan Hayes each have 12 SB (80.0% success rate). Noelvi Marte has 10 SB (76.9% success rate). Spencer Steer is the most efficient base stealer in the sample at 87.5% (7 SB, 1 CS in 2025).

Eugenio Suárez has 4 SB (80.0% success rate). Nathaniel Lowe has 1 SB (100.0%). JJ Bleday is the outlier at 33.3% (1 SB, 2 CS) -- a negative runner on the basepaths.

League-average success rate is approximately 68-72%. Myers, Friedl, Hayes, Marte, Steer, Suárez, and Lowe all exceed that threshold. The Cardinals' catcher situation -- Jimmy Crooks in his 14th game behind the plate, paired with a pitcher he has never caught before -- may give the Reds a pop-time advantage, particularly for Myers and Friedl if they reach base early in the game.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Masyn Winn anchors the infield at SS with a .994 fielding percentage in 129 games -- minimal errors and 64 double plays in his primary sample, among the best at the position. At 1B tonight, Alec Burleson shows a .990 fld% in 50 games with 27 DP -- a reliable corner who can turn the double play off May's ground-ball tendency.

The outfield is solid on the corners. Lars Nootbaar is errorless in 107 LF games (1.000 fld%) -- the cleanest defensive data point in the Cardinals sample. Jordan Walker at RF has 4 errors in 108 games (.981 fld%). Nathan Church at CF -- tonight's starter at center per the projected lineup -- is clean in 18 CF games (1.000 fld%), though his 0.833 fld% in 7 RF games with 1 error is a small-sample concern at a different position.

At catcher, Jimmy Crooks is listed at 1.000 fld% in 14 games (no errors). Note that Iván Herrera also appears in the catching sample (14 G, 1 E, .989 fld%) -- tonight's starting catcher per the projected lineup is Crooks (batting 7th, position "C"). Position assignments for tonight per the lineup card: Crooks (C), Burleson (1B), Winn (SS), Nootbaar (LF), Walker (RF), Church (CF). The defense table reflects career/season fielding samples; position assignments here are sourced from the lineup, not the defense sample.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Cardinals vs. Reds recent head-to-head record: 7-6 in 2025, 6-7 in 2024, 7-6 in 2023, 12-7 in 2022. The series has been relatively even over the past three seasons. Tonight opens a 3-game home set for the Cardinals at Busch Stadium.

No numeric park factor for Busch Stadium is available in today's data -- treat this as a neutral-to-pitcher-leaning venue context based on Busch Stadium's historically spacious outfield dimensions. The Cardinals' 7-6 record vs. Cincinnati in 2025 is the most relevant directional context for this series.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Jordan Walker's 31.8% 2025 K rate vs. RHP (396 PA) is the highest in the projected Cardinals lineup -- a significant swing-and-miss concern against any strike-throwing starter. Nathan Church (27.7% K, 65 PA) and Jimmy Crooks (37.0% K, 46 PA) compound the bottom-of-the-order strikeout risk, though both have small samples. League average K rate is 22.2%; Walker, Church, and Crooks all exceed it materially. Alec Burleson (14.5% K, 544 PA) is the lineup's contact anchor, well below the league average. Lars Nootbaar (20.4% K, 11.0% BB in 583 PA) profiles as the most disciplined table-setter in the group. JJ Wetherholt and Nolan Gorman have no 2025 K%/BB% data on file.

Reds

The Reds present an interesting 2025 K% profile for May. Tyler Stephenson leads at 33.9% K (342 PA) -- the highest in the Reds' pool and an automatic strikeout risk. Eugenio Suárez (29.8% K, 657 PA) and JJ Bleday (26.5% K, 344 PA) are elevated strikeout threats against a competent RHP. Nathaniel Lowe (26.1% K, 609 PA) also falls above the league-average K rate of 22.2%, despite being the most dangerous BvP hitter in the sample. In contrast, Jose Trevino (12.9% K, 302 PA) and TJ Friedl (16.8% K, 685 PA) are the best contact profiles in the Reds' pool -- May will need pitch execution to retire them without walks or hard contact.

On the BB side: TJ Friedl leads at 11.8% BB (685 PA) -- above the league average of 8.9%. Nathaniel Lowe (10.2% BB, 609 PA) and JJ Bleday (10.5% BB, 344 PA) also show above-average walk rates, meaning they will draw balls out of the zone and extend at-bats. Noelvi Marte (4.4% BB, 360 PA) and Jose Trevino (5.0% BB, 302 PA) are below-average walkers -- they will swing early, and May can get them to put balls in play if his command is working.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Iván Herrera profiles as the highest-ground-ball hitter in the Cardinals 2025 sample at 52.6% GB (285 BIP). Nathan Church is extreme at 67.6% GB (37 BIP) -- but with a very small sample. Jordan Walker (48.9% GB, 231 BIP) and Alec Burleson (42.0% GB, 398 BIP) are moderate ground-ball hitters. Masyn Winn (39.6% GB), Lars Nootbaar (39.1% GB), and Jimmy Crooks (37.0% GB) are more balanced. Lowder's 48.0% 2026 GB rate suggests ground balls will be a common outcome tonight -- the Cardinals' moderate-GB hitters (Burleson, Nootbaar, Winn) are best positioned to elevate the ball for extra-base contact in this matchup.

Reds

May's career batted-ball profile (44.1% GB, 372 BIP) meets a Reds lineup where several hitters profile as consistent ground-ball producers in 2025: Ke'Bryan Hayes (49.5% GB, 410 BIP), Nathaniel Lowe (46.6% GB, 363 BIP), Noelvi Marte (48.8% GB, 240 BIP), Jose Trevino (48.3% GB, 236 BIP), and Dane Myers (45.9% GB, 222 BIP). These matchups align May's tendency to induce ground balls with hitters who are comfortable putting the ball on the ground -- a pitcher-favorable outcome when Burleson (.990 fld%) and Winn (.994 fld%) are holding down the infield corners and middle of the diamond.

Fly-ball hitters present elevated risk for May: Eugenio Suárez (41.4% FB in 2025, .552 SLG vs. RHP) and JJ Bleday (41.1% FB in 2025) both elevate balls at a high rate. May's 28.2% career FB allowed rate means a fly-ball-heavy contact sequence can produce extra-base damage, and Suárez's 36 HR vs. RHP in 2025 confirms the power ceiling when he elevates.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

2026 to date: May carries a 22.9% K rate and 7.7% BB rate in 98.0 IP. 2025 baseline: 21.1% K, 9.6% BB, 2.20 K/BB ratio (132.1 IP, 584 BFP). His 2025 K/BB ratio of 2.20 places him in the functional zone -- not an elite swing-and-miss arm, but a reasonable command profile when his stuff is working. His 2026 BB rate (7.7%) is running below the 2025 baseline (9.6%), which is an encouraging signal for tonight's home start against a Reds lineup with several high-strikeout hitters. A lower BB rate preserves his ability to work the plate and induce weak contact through the first and second passes through the order.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Alec Burleson vs. Rhett Lowder. Burleson's 2025 vs-RHP line is .296 AVG, .353 OBP, .478 SLG in 419 PA (15 HR). Lowder's 5.75 ERA and 1.64 WHIP through 14 starts indicate he surrenders hard contact at an elevated rate. Burleson batting 3rd in a 6-LHB lineup is the Cardinals' best structural advantage tonight -- a disciplined left-handed bat facing a right-hander who has not established command or consistent contact management in 2026.

Nathaniel Lowe vs. Dustin May. Lowe is 2-for-6 (.333 AVG, .833 SLG, 1 HR) in the career BvP against May. As a LHB, Lowe faces May's weaker 2025 platoon side: .261 AVG, .357 OBP, .495 SLG, .852 OPS allowed to left-handed bats (334 PA). Lowe's 2025 vs-RHP line is .252 AVG, .333 OBP, .429 SLG in 438 PA (16 HR). His combination of career BvP history and platoon advantage -- both pointing in the same direction -- makes him the Reds' most dangerous alignment against May tonight.

Eugenio Suárez vs. Dustin May. Suárez is 3-for-6 (.500 AVG, 1.000 SLG, 1 HR) in the career BvP against May. His 2025 vs-RHP line is .252 AVG, .313 OBP, .552 SLG in 473 PA (36 HR). He is a RHB facing May's better 2025 platoon split (.711 OPS allowed to RHBs), but the career BvP pattern -- three hits including a homer in six PA -- represents a specific threat that overrides the platoon calculation. His 29.8% 2025 K rate is the counterweight: May has strikeout paths here, but Suárez's power when he makes contact is legitimate.

May's TTO2 window. May's second pass through the order (TTO2) shows a pronounced jump from the first pass: .290 AVG, .878 OPS in 220 PA (9 HR) vs. .226 AVG and .652 OPS in TTO1 (227 PA). If the Reds track May's stuff into innings 4-6, the Cardinals bullpen decision becomes critical. Kyle Leahy (62.1% IR strand rate, 29 IR) and Riley O'Brien (70.0% IR strand rate, 10 IR) are the most reliable options to bridge to the back end when May exits.

X-factor: Crooks-May fresh battery. None of the catchers in May's battery history data are on the Cardinals' active roster -- his prior pairings reflect his Los Angeles years. Tonight is Jimmy Crooks's first career start paired with Dustin May. Fresh batteries create calibration noise in the first pass through the order: pitch sequencing, framing setup, and pop time to second are all being established in real time. The Reds' active running game (Myers 18 SB, Friedl 12 SB, Hayes 12 SB) makes that pop-time calibration immediately consequential.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Alec Burleson performed against Rhett Lowder in their career?

2. How has Eugenio Suárez performed against Dustin May in their career?

3. How has Nathaniel Lowe performed against Kyle Leahy in their career?

4. What are Dustin May's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Nathaniel Lowe's splits vs RHP in 2025?

6. How often does Kyle Leahy strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the runs park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?