Player	Pos	Bats
Castillo	DH	L
Carroll	RF	L
Moreno	C	R
Perdomo	SS	S
Vargas	1B	S
McCann	C	R
Barrosa	CF	S
Marte	2B	S
Kepler	LF	L
Arenado	3B	R
Waldschmidt	CF	R
Tawa	LF	R
Locklear	1B	R

Handedness: 6 RHB (Moreno, McCann, Arenado, Waldschmidt, Tawa, Locklear), 3 LHB (Castillo, Carroll, Kepler), 4 SHB (Perdomo, Vargas, Barrosa, Marte).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Roster discrepancy -- 3B: Nolan Gorman appears in the Cardinals' projected lineup at 3B (batting 8, sourced from the prior-day projection dated 2026-07-22), but is absent from today's active Cardinals roster per the latest available data. Blaze Jordan (3B) is on the active roster. A roster adjustment may have occurred between yesterday's lineup projection and today. If Jordan starts at 3B, his historical statistics are not present in this report's data sections. Monitor official lineup cards for the actual 3B starter.

Injury and roster-move confirmation: Confirmed injury and roster news are not available at generation time. Check lineup cards and the Cardinals' official transaction log for today's active roster composition.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

Small sample: Lars Nootbaar (9 PA), Jordan Walker (8 PA), Alec Burleson (8 PA), Iván Herrera (8 PA).

Masyn Winn leads available BvP history with 11 PA (.333/.455/.667, 1 HR, 2 BB) -- the only Cardinals starter with a meaningful positive record against Pfaadt. No Cardinals batter with 8 or more PA against him posts a .400 or higher average. Iván Herrera has made contact at .286 (2-for-7) but has struck out 5 times in 8 PA -- Pfaadt generates swings and misses against him. Alec Burleson (0-for-7, .000) and Jordan Walker (1-for-8, .125) have produced nothing of consequence against him. Wetherholt, Gorman (projected 3B), Crooks, and Church have no historical records in this dataset against Pfaadt -- their at-bat history with him, if any, is not captured here.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

No data available for this section.

McGreevy's major-league career began recently enough that no Diamondbacks batter has accumulated career at-bat history against him in this dataset. Arizona's lineup faces him without prior matchup reference on either side.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

The Cardinals send six left-handed bats against Pfaadt this afternoon. Pfaadt's 2025 platoon splits are nearly flat: .775 OPS against left-handed batters, .811 OPS against right-handed batters. The Cardinals cannot exploit a meaningful platoon advantage through lineup handedness alone. Alec Burleson (LHB, .296/.353/.478 vs RHP in 419 PA in 2025) is the most productive left-handed bat in the order. Crooks (LHB, .108/.132/.162 in 38 PA vs RHP) and Church (LHB, .114/.216/.182 in 51 PA vs RHP) carry the highest contact risk at the bottom of the order. Wetherholt and Gorman (projected 3B) have no platoon split data in this dataset.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

McGreevy's split against left-handed batters (.318 AVG, .911 OPS in 190 PA in 2025) defines today's primary risk. Arizona's left-handed pool -- Carroll (.265/.351/.566, 23 HR vs RHP in 441 PA in 2025), and Kepler (.216/.305/.399, 16 HR in 398 PA) -- cycles through that vulnerability at every at-bat. Geraldo Perdomo (S, .267/.378/.451 in 501 PA) and Ketel Marte (S, .287/.376/.517 in 372 PA) hit effectively from both sides of the plate, limiting McGreevy's ability to seek relief through matchup manipulation. Locklear (RHB) and Barrosa are high-strikeout profiles relative to others in the ARI pool.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

McGreevy's platoon split is the sharpest number in today's pitching matchup: .318 AVG and .911 OPS vs LHB vs .225 AVG and .580 OPS vs RHB in 2025 across 400 total PA. Arizona's left-handed bats (Carroll, Kepler, Castillo) exploit this gap at every plate appearance. Pfaadt's splits are flat (.775 OPS vs LHB, .811 OPS vs RHB), which means the Cardinals' six left-handed bats face essentially the same pitcher as the three right-handed bats. No meaningful handedness-based strategy exists for the Cardinals against Pfaadt today.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

The decisive contextual factor: Pfaadt's 7.60 away ERA (79.1 IP, 363 BF, 22 HR allowed) vs. 2.96 at home (97.1 IP, 404 BF, 4 HR) in 2025 -- both splits carry large sample sizes. At Busch Stadium this afternoon, the Cardinals face the road version of Pfaadt, his most vulnerable environment. McGreevy runs the opposite direction: 5.22 ERA at home (50.0 IP) vs. 3.55 away (45.2 IP). Both starters are pitching in their weaker context today. Pfaadt's road disadvantage (7.60 ERA, 22 HR in 79.1 IP) is far more severe than McGreevy's home disadvantage (5.22 ERA, 6 HR in 50.0 IP), but the Cardinals must still navigate McGreevy's real home vulnerability against Arizona's left-handed bats.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

McGreevy improves as the game progresses: first pass .792 OPS (154 PA), second pass .715 OPS (152 PA), third pass .677 OPS (94 PA) in 2025. He is a better pitcher deeper in starts against a lineup cycling through for the third time. Pfaadt is the inverse: first pass .788 OPS (299 PA), second pass .749 OPS (286 PA), third pass .866 OPS with 11 HR in 182 PA. The third-pass window is the Cardinals' highest-leverage opportunity of the game. Any inning Pfaadt works against the Cardinals a third time carries a structurally elevated scoring chance -- the data does not show gradual decline, it shows a discrete spike in the third pass.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

League average inherited-runner strand rate in 2025: 68.8%. Svanson (50.0%, 26 IR) and Graceffo (54.5%, 11 IR) are substantially below that threshold -- both have allowed inherited runners to score at rates well above the league norm. If either enters with Cardinals runners on base this afternoon, the historical pattern favors the Cardinals scoring. O'Brien (70.0%, 10 IR) performs near the league average. Leahy (62.1%, 29 IR) is the highest-volume inherited-runner arm on the staff and tracks slightly below average. McGreevy (100.0%, 3 IR) is a very small sample.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- ARI

McGreevy's career 49.2% groundball rate suppresses hard fly-ball contact. Against Arizona's roster, the highest career line-drive averages belong to Ketel Marte (.702 LD AVG), Geraldo Perdomo (.684 LD AVG), and Corbin Carroll (.681 LD AVG) -- all capable of generating quality contact when they keep the ball in play. Pfaadt's career 29.0% line-drive rate is elevated for a pitcher, indicating that contact against him tends to be harder than a pure groundball arm would produce. Cardinals batters with higher fly-ball tendencies (Crooks at 44.4% FB career, Nootbaar at 35.4%) are better positioned to drive pitches off Pfaadt's profile than Cardinals batters who pound the ball into the ground.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

McGreevy's primary catcher in 2025 has been Pedro Pagés (14 G, 80.2 IP, 4.24 ERA with that pairing). This afternoon's catcher is Jimmy Crooks -- McGreevy and Crooks have worked together in 2 career games (8.2 IP, 9.35 ERA as a pair). Note: Yohel Pozo (listed above, 1 G, 5.2 IP, 0.00 ERA) is not on the current Cardinals active roster. That pairing data reflects a prior-team or prior-period context and does not apply to today. Crooks is the receiver this afternoon (batting 7, position C in the projected lineup). The unfamiliar McGreevy-Crooks pairing may affect pitch sequencing early and creates a potential timing advantage for Arizona's aggressive baserunners (Carroll, Perdomo).

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Arizona speed threats. Corbin Carroll (32 SB, 84.2% success rate in 2025) and Geraldo Perdomo (27 SB, 81.8% success rate) are the most active baserunning threats in Arizona's pool. Tim Tawa adds 8 SB at 80.0%, and Ketel Marte has 4 SB at 66.7%. Carroll and Perdomo represent a consistent pressure element at the top of any Arizona lineup configuration. Today's Cardinals battery is McGreevy-Crooks -- only 2 career games together (8.2 IP) -- which creates an unfamiliar receiver dynamic that can benefit aggressive baserunners who study battery timing.

Cardinals context. No Cardinals offensive baserunning data (stolen base attempts or success rates) is available in today's dataset. The projected lineup does not include a noted stolen-base profile based on available records.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Masyn Winn at SS is the defensive standout in today's projected lineup: 129 G, 64 double plays, 3 errors, .994 Fld% in 2025. Lars Nootbaar (LF, 107 G, 0 errors, 1.000 Fld%) has been flawless at his primary position. Nathan Church (CF, 18 G, 1.000 Fld%) has been error-free at center. Jimmy Crooks (C, 14 G, 1.000 Fld%) is clean behind the plate. Note: No defensive data for Gorman (projected 3B) or Blaze Jordan (active roster 3B) is present in this dataset. The 3B defensive profile is unrepresented here regardless of who starts today.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Head-to-head record (Cardinals vs Arizona): 2022: STL 5-2; 2023: STL 3-3; 2024: STL 3-3; 2025: STL 3-3. Cardinals are 14-11 against Arizona over the last four seasons in available records. This afternoon is a single-game series at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals' most recent Arizona trip (Jul 17-19 in available results) produced a 1-2 record: a 5-4 win followed by a 3-5 loss and a 7-8 loss in 10 innings.

Busch Stadium context. This afternoon's game is at Busch Stadium (Cardinals' home park). No park factor data is available in today's dataset. The most relevant park context is captured in the home/away splits above: Pfaadt's 7.60 ERA on the road (79.1 IP) reflects his performance in away environments of this type, while McGreevy's 5.22 home ERA (50.0 IP) reflects his performance at Busch specifically.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Jordan Walker (31.8% K%) and Jimmy Crooks (37.0% K%, 0 BB in 46 PA vs RHP) are the highest contact-risk batters in today's Cardinals lineup against Pfaadt's 19.2% K% arsenal. Lars Nootbaar (20.4% K%, 11.0% BB%) carries the best plate discipline among the tracked Cardinals starters -- he is most likely to work walks against Pfaadt. Iván Herrera's 9.6% BB% also gives him some ability to grind counts. Wetherholt and Gorman (projected 3B) have no K%/BB% data in this dataset.

Diamondbacks

Geraldo Perdomo (11.5% K%, 13.1% BB% in 720 PA in 2025) is the elite plate-discipline profile in Arizona's pool -- he works counts, draws walks, and makes contact, representing McGreevy's most difficult out on a per-PA basis. Ketel Marte (14.9% K%, 11.5% BB%) and Nolan Arenado (11.2% K%) are also low-strikeout, high-contact threats. Locklear (37.1% K%) and Barrosa (28.6% K%) are the strikeout-prone batters in the ARI pool, partially offsetting the left-handed batter platoon liability when those matchups arise. McGreevy's 14.5% K% / 5.0% BB% / 2.90 K/BB ratio reflects a contact-dependent pitcher -- he will not consistently generate strikeouts at the rate needed to avoid left-handed damage from Carroll, Kepler, and Perdomo.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Nathan Church has the most extreme ground-ball tendency in this dataset (67.6% GB, 37 BIP) -- a profile that plays poorly against a ground-ball pitcher like McGreevy (49.2% career GB%). Iván Herrera (52.6% GB, 285 BIP) and Jordan Walker (48.9% GB, 231 BIP) also trend ground-ball heavy. Jimmy Crooks has the highest fly-ball rate (44.4% FB, 27 BIP) but in a very small sample. Wetherholt and Gorman (projected 3B) have no batted ball data in this dataset.

Diamondbacks

Pfaadt's career 29.0% line-drive rate (544 BIP) is elevated for a pitcher -- contact against him tends toward harder outcomes. Arizona's highest career LD averages -- Ketel Marte (.702 LD AVG), Geraldo Perdomo (.684 LD AVG), Corbin Carroll (.681 LD AVG) -- indicate those batters make quality contact when they put the ball in play. Tyler Locklear (63.2% GB, 57 BIP) and Ildemaro Vargas (60.4% GB, 96 BIP) are heavily ground-ball oriented, which aligns with McGreevy's 49.2% career GB tendency and may suppress their offensive output in this matchup. Tawa (53.5% GB) and McCann (51.8% GB) follow a similar pattern.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

Pfaadt's 19.2% K% and 4.8% BB% produce a 3.97 K/BB ratio across 176.2 IP in 2025 -- he limits free passes and can pile up strikeouts, particularly against the Cardinals' high-strikeout bats (Walker 31.8% K%, Crooks 37.0% K%). McGreevy's 14.5% K% and 5.0% BB% produce a 2.90 K/BB across 95.2 IP -- a contact-dependent profile that relies on ground balls rather than swing-and-miss to manage damage. With Perdomo (11.5% K%), Marte (14.9% K%), and Arenado (11.2% K%) as Arizona's low-strikeout core, McGreevy faces batters who will put the ball in play at higher rates than an average lineup. Nootbaar's 11.0% BB% and Herrera's 9.6% BB% give those two the best chance of drawing walks against Pfaadt's low-BB% arsenal.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Masyn Winn vs Pfaadt. Winn is 3-for-9 (.333) with 1 HR, 2 BB, .455 OBP, and .667 SLG in 11 career PA against Pfaadt -- the best BvP performance among the Cardinals' projected starters. No other Cardinal with 8 or more PA against him exceeds .286 AVG. Winn's BvP advantage is the one piece of individual history that favors the Cardinals in this matchup.

Corbin Carroll vs McGreevy. Carroll bats left. McGreevy allows .318 AVG and .911 OPS to left-handed batters in 190 PA in 2025. Carroll's own 2025 line vs right-handed pitching is .265/.351/.566 with 23 HR in 441 PA. No prior at-bat history exists between Carroll and McGreevy in this dataset. This matchup occurs every time Carroll steps to the plate this afternoon and is the primary offensive threat on Arizona's side.

Pfaadt road context. His 7.60 away ERA (79.1 IP, 363 BF, 22 HR allowed) vs. 2.96 at home (97.1 IP, 404 BF, 4 HR) in 2025 is the structural edge of this game. Both samples are large enough to treat the split as real. The Cardinals face the road version of Pfaadt this afternoon at Busch Stadium. If they extend him into his third pass through the order (.866 OPS, 11 HR in 182 PA in 2025), the structural advantage compounds.

McGreevy home ERA (5.22) and the Arizona left-handed threat. McGreevy's 5.22 ERA at home (50.0 IP, 212 BF) is the corresponding Arizona edge. Carroll (L, .265/.351/.566), Kepler (L, .216/.305/.399), and Castillo (L) cycle through McGreevy's .318 AVG / .911 OPS left-handed-batter liability throughout the game. Carroll (32 SB, 84.2%) and Perdomo (27 SB, 81.8%) add a baserunning layer against the unfamiliar McGreevy-Crooks battery (2 career games, 8.2 IP together).

Pfaadt TTO3 window (.866 OPS). In 2025, Pfaadt's third-pass-through-the-order line was .276 AVG, .547 SLG, .866 OPS, 11 HR in 182 PA -- a discrete spike from his second-pass level (.749 OPS in 286 PA). If Pfaadt extends into the 7th inning this afternoon, that is the Cardinals' clearest offensive opportunity of the game regardless of how the first two passes went. Watch for the transition moment when the Cardinals lineup begins its third cycle.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

• Winn vs Pfaadt (career): 3-for-9, 1 HR, 2 BB -- .333/.455/.667 (11 PA) -- best BvP in Cardinals lineup
• Iván Herrera vs Pfaadt (career): 2-for-7, .286 AVG, 5 K (8 PA) -- makes contact but strikeout-prone vs Pfaadt
• Lars Nootbaar vs Pfaadt (career): 2-for-9, 1 HR -- .222 AVG, .556 SLG (9 PA) -- elevated SLG in small sample
• Pfaadt TTO3 (2025): .276 AVG, .547 SLG, .866 OPS, 11 HR in 182 PA -- escalation window begins the third time through the order
• McGreevy vs LHB (2025): .318 AVG, .911 OPS in 190 PA -- primary platoon risk vs Carroll, Kepler, Castillo
• IR strand rate (2025): Svanson 50.0% (26 IR), Graceffo 54.5% (11 IR), O'Brien 70.0% (10 IR) -- league avg 68.8%
• Pfaadt home vs away (2025): 2.96 ERA home (97.1 IP, 4 HR), 7.60 ERA away (79.1 IP, 22 HR) -- Cardinals face the away version this afternoon at Busch Stadium