NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

STARTING PITCHERS

Andre Pallante (R) -- Cardinals. 2026 to date: 4-4, 4.04 ERA, 49.0 IP, 40 K, 19 BB, 1.35 WHIP across 9 starts (47 H, 6 HR allowed). The profile is GB-heavy at a 59.6% rate this year, 18.8% K rate, 8.9% BB rate. Pallante is on the road today and his 2025 home/away split tilts the road's way -- 4.89 ERA away vs 5.42 at home over the career sample. Prior pass through the order is where the trouble starts: the 2025 TTO2 line allowed jumps to .309 / .487 / .868 OPS.

Chris Paddack (R) -- Reds. 2026 to date: 0-5, 7.07 ERA, 35.2 IP, 30 K, 11 BB, 1.63 WHIP across 7 starts (47 H, 6 HR allowed). 49.4% GB rate, 17.8% K rate, 6.5% BB rate this year. Paddack is home today; the career home/away gap favors home (4.41 ERA home vs 5.58 away). The 2025 TTO2 split is his weak spot -- .283 / .500 / .813 OPS over 266 PA, the highest OPS he allows in any TTO bucket.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-05-22)

Handedness: 5 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Saggese, Pagés), 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church).

Reds (From active roster)

13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

Handedness: 8 RHB (Dunn, Myers, Suárez, McLain, Higgins, Stewart, Steer, Stephenson), 4 LHB (Bleday, Lowe, Friedl, Benson).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster-move data is available for today. Cardinals lineup carries forward from the May 22 projection, and the Reds lineup is rendered as an active-roster pool because the order had not been confirmed at generation time.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

No data available for this section.

The career BvP sample for Cardinals batters vs Paddack is empty -- no rows. With Paddack mostly an AL West and NL Central second-tier opponent and a young Cardinals core, that is consistent with limited prior exposure. The matchup is profile-driven on the Cardinals side: 2025 platoon splits and 2025 K/BB tendencies do the work.

Bench note: No significant bench BvP history against Paddack in the career sample.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Small sample: Tyler Stephenson (7 PA), Dane Myers (3 PA), Eugenio Suárez (3 PA), Blake Dunn (2 PA), Sal Stewart (3 PA).

Friedl owns the largest sample (24 PA) and the worst slash line of the group at .174 / .208 / .174 -- Pallante's clearest individual edge in the table. Lowe is the inverse: 10 PA, 3-for-9 with 1 HR, .333 / .400 / .667. Steer adds a 19-PA, 1-HR profile at .250 / .368 / .438 -- those are the two right men to game-plan around. Benson (.100) and McLain (.111) at double-digit PA are working-sample edges for Pallante.

Bench note: Stewart's 3-PA line shows 2 BB on 1 AB, but the sample is too thin to lean on. No other Reds bench players carry a notable career BvP profile against Pallante.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

Paddack is RHP, so this is the 2025 vs RHP table for the Cardinals lineup. Burleson is the lead bat at .296 / .353 / .478 over 419 PA -- the cleanest matchup edge against a RHP. Herrera (.268 / .343 / .399) and Winn (.251 / .309 / .368) handle RHP at average or better. The trouble spots: Walker .200 / .263 / .291, Gorman .201 vs RHP, and Pagés .225 with a thin .264 OBP. With four LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church) in the order against Paddack's slightly worse vs LHB line (2025 .256 / .306 / .492 with 18 HR allowed -- Section 2D), the lefty matchups carry the lineup's path to runs.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

Pallante is RHP, so this is the 2025 vs RHP table for the Reds lineup. Suarez is the power threat at .546 SLG with 39 HR in 514 PA. Friedl's .378 OBP and 64 BB over 492 PA make him a leadoff problem -- the table-setter even if the BvP against Pallante hasn't gone his way. Lowe handles RHP at .251 / .331 / .425. Bleday (.180) and Dunn (.147) are the soft spots, with Myers (.208) the third weak right bat. With 8 RHB in the active-roster pool against a RHP, the Reds tilt right-heavy; Pallante's 2025 vs RHB line (Section 2D) accepts contact at a .275 clip.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Paddack is roughly platoon-neutral on the slash but more homer-prone vs LHB (18 HR over 345 PA, .492 SLG). With four LHB in the Cardinals lineup (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church), the long-ball lane is the lefty side. Pallante is also close to neutral by OPS (vs LHB .763, vs RHB .774) but allows slightly more contact from the right side (.275 vs RHB). The Reds lineup pool tilts 8 RHB to 4 LHB -- their bat-count is into Pallante's higher-AVG split.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Today's game is at Great American Ball Park. Paddack pitches home -- his stronger split (4.41 ERA, 9 HR over 69.1 IP). Pallante pitches away -- also his stronger split (4.89 ERA, 11 HR over 84.2 IP). Both starters are in the friendlier half of their venue splits, which raises the floor on innings pitched and lowers the bullpen-call probability versus the alternative.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Both starters have the same vulnerability shape -- the second pass through the order is each pitcher's weak window. Paddack's 2025 TTO2 line of .283 / .500 / .813 OPS is his highest OPS bucket; Pallante's 2025 TTO2 line of .309 / .487 / .868 OPS is even worse. Both pitchers tighten back up in the third pass. Innings 4-6 are where this game is most likely to break open on either side.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero (88.5% on 26 inherited) and McGreevy (100% on 3) are the clean exit doors; Svanson (50.0% on 26) and Graceffo (54.5% on 11) are not. Leahy is just below league average at 62.1% on the largest entry workload of the group. The Romero/Svanson gap is the single biggest swing factor when Pallante walks the second-pass tightrope.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- CIN

Pallante's 61.2% career GB rate is the profile signature. The matchup is collision-rich: Lowe (.234 GB AVG, .548 LD AVG career) and McLain (.316 GB AVG) are the most ground-ball productive Reds. Suarez (.212 GB AVG, .622 LD AVG) and Bleday (.237 GB AVG) need to lift to do damage -- the very thing Pallante's sinker is designed to prevent. Friedl's .259 GB AVG against a 61% GB pitcher is a typical scratch-single threat. Paddack's split is the opposite: a near-even 38.6 GB / 34.3 FB / 25.5 LD profile -- the FB share is where his 31 career HR allowed show up.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

All four catchers in the table are Cardinals battery pairings with Pallante; today's projected starter is Pedro Pages, who carries the largest sample (15 G, 76.1 IP, 4.60 ERA paired with Pallante, .257 AVG allowed). Crooks (5 G, 4.24 ERA paired) is the stronger ERA pairing but is not in tonight's projected lineup. Pozo's 6.93 ERA pairing is the worst of the four -- relevant only if he replaces Pages mid-game. The Pages-Pallante battery is the most established option on the roster and is the game's default battery.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Matt McLain. 18 SB / 2 CS in 2025 -- a 90% success rate over 20 attempts. The top run threat in the Reds' active-roster pool.

Dane Myers. 18 SB / 5 CS, 78.3% success. Volume threat at near-league-average efficiency.

TJ Friedl. 12 SB / 3 CS, 80.0% success. The leadoff bat carries the highest reach rate and a workable success rate.

Spencer Steer. 7 SB / 1 CS, 87.5% success -- low volume, high efficiency.

Eugenio Suarez. 4 SB / 1 CS, 80.0% success. Low volume.

Will Benson. 2 SB / 2 CS, 50.0% -- not a green-light runner.

Nathaniel Lowe. 1 SB / 0 CS, 100% -- one-attempt sample.

Blake Dunn. 1 SB / 1 CS, 50.0%.

JJ Bleday. 1 SB / 2 CS, 33.3% -- run-prevention against Bleday is automatic if he reaches.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Tonight's lineup-tagged defenders: Winn at SS (.994 over 129 G, 64 DP), Pages at C (.994 over 110 G), Walker at RF (.981, 4 E), Burleson at 1B (.990, 27 DP), Gorman at 3B (.950 with 6 E -- the team's weakest projected defender), Saggese in LF (no LF sample in the fielding rows -- his 2025 fielding work is at 2B / SS / 3B; the LF assignment is fresh), and Wetherholt at 2B (no row -- his 2026 fielding workload at 2B has not been queried into this dataset). With a GB-heavy pitcher (Pallante 61.2% career GB) and a hitter-friendly park, the Gorman-Winn-Wetherholt-Burleson infield carries the defensive load -- Winn's range at short is the bedrock.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Great American Ball Park plays as a hitter-leaning venue, particularly for fly-ball contact. Head-to-head against Cincinnati over the most recent seasons available: 2025 the Cardinals went 7-6, 2024 they went 6-7, 2023 they went 7-6, and in 2022 they took the series volume 12-7. The series has trended near-even since 2023.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Burleson is the contact engine at a 2025 14.5% K rate. The strikeout exposures: Gorman 33.8% K, Walker 31.8% K, Saggese 28.1% K, Pages 27.5% K -- all above the 25% high-K line. Pages' 4.9% 2025 BB rate is also below the 6% low-BB threshold; he is a free-swinger by both metrics. The lineup behind Burleson is whiff-heavy against a Paddack profile that's softly above-average at putting away (16.7% K rate, 5.5% BB rate).

Reds

Stephenson (33.9%) and Dunn (33.3%) lead the Reds in 2025 K rate. Suarez (29.8%), McLain (28.9%), Bleday (26.5%), Benson (26.5%), and Lowe (26.1%) are all above the 25% high-K line. Friedl is the contact spine at 16.8% K with a 2025 11.8% BB rate -- the rare table-setter who walks more than league average and strikes out less. Pallante's 2025 15.5% K rate and 8.7% BB rate sit modestly above average control, but the Reds' top of the order has the patience to push pitch counts and pull the start back into the second-pass window where Pallante's 2025 TTO2 line spikes.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Gorman's 2025 30.2% GB / 41.7% FB profile is the cleanest fit for Paddack's career 34.3% FB allowance -- the long ball is his lane. Burleson (33.4% FB) and Winn (34.0% FB) are also FB-tilted enough to threaten on Paddack's mistakes. Herrera's 2025 52.6% GB rate is the lineup's contact floor -- not a homer-tied threat, but the kind of hard-grounder profile that punishes Paddack's inferior GB-induction.

Reds

Pallante's 61.2% career GB rate runs straight into Suarez (37.0% GB / 40.8% FB), Bleday (39.6% GB / 41.1% FB), and Steer (37.5% / 37.5%) -- the three Reds bats most likely to elevate. A missed sinker leaves the park here, and Suarez's 2025 vs RHP profile is .546 SLG with 39 HR. The flip side: Lowe (46.3% GB) and Myers (45.9% GB) play into Pallante's strength. Dunn's 62.5% 2025 GB rate (32 BIP) is a small sample with no answer for a sinker.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

Paddack's 2025 K/BB ratio of 3.03 is the cleaner control profile (16.7% K, 5.5% BB). Pallante (2025 K/BB 1.79, 15.5% K, 8.7% BB) earns outs with the ground ball, not the strikeout, and the BB rate is the trade-off. 2026 to date: Paddack 7.07 ERA over 35.2 IP. 2025 baseline: 16.7% K, 5.5% BB. The 2026 ERA spike suggests contact quality rather than command has worsened; Pallante's 2026 4.04 ERA tracks closer to his 2025 baseline.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Nathaniel Lowe vs Pallante. 10 PA, 3-for-9 with 1 HR -- .333 / .400 / .667 in the career BvP sample (Section 2B). Lowe is the lone Reds bat hitting Pallante hard, and his 2025 vs RHP line of .251 / .331 / .425 (Section 2C) makes the matchup more than a small-sample fluke.

TJ Friedl vs Pallante. 24 PA, .174 / .208 / .174 (Section 2B) -- Pallante's biggest individual edge in the table and the largest sample. Friedl is the Reds' contact spine at 16.8% K and 11.8% BB in 2025 (Section 2L), so the Pallante mismatch is specific, not lineup-wide.

Jordan Walker vs Paddack. Walker is .200 vs RHP in 2025 over 289 PA (Section 2C) with a 31.8% K rate (Section 2L). Paddack's career batted-ball profile is 38.6% GB / 34.3% FB / 25.5% LD (Section 2G), and Walker's swing has not punished RHP this year -- a watch spot when Paddack's TTO2 vulnerability (.283 / .500 / .813 in 2025) appears in innings 4-6.

X-factor: Bullpen leverage on the Pallante exit. Romero's 88.5% inherited-runner strand rate (Section 2F) is the clean door; Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) are the leaks. Which arm gets the call when Pallante's second-pass cliff (2025 .309 / .487 / .868 OPS, Section 2E) opens up will decide whether a jam survives or scores.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Alec Burleson performed against Chris Paddack in their career?

2. How has Andre Pallante fared against Nathaniel Lowe in their career?

3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Eugenio Suarez in their career?

4. What are Andre Pallante's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Jordan Walker's splits vs RHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Great American Ball Park in 2025?

Game 2 Deep Dive

STARTING PITCHERS

Kyle Leahy (R) -- Cardinals

2026 to date: 5-3, 3.94 ERA, 1.30 WHIP across 45.2 IP. Career line: 88.0 IP, 80 K against 28 BB (22.0% K%, 7.7% BB%) for a 2.86 K/BB. 44.2% career GB% on 249 BIP. He pitches away at Great American Ball Park tonight -- the favorable side of his split (2.68 ERA on 43.2 away IP against 4.47 ERA on 44.1 home IP). The depth question is real: career TTO2 sample is only 8 PA.

Chase Petty -- Reds

2026 to date: 0-0, 4.76 ERA, 5.2 IP across 4 games. Career line: 6.0 IP, 7 K against 8 BB (17.5% K%, 20.0% BB%) for a 0.88 K/BB. Sample is tiny but the control profile reads as a Cardinals-traffic invitation, particularly to right-handed bats -- vs RHB he has allowed .600 / .704 / 1.200 / 1.904 OPS on 27 PA with 3 HR. Throwing hand is not listed in the active pitching profile.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

Small sample: Jordan Walker (2 PA), Alec Burleson (2 PA), Nolan Gorman (3 PA), Masyn Winn (2 PA), Pedro Pagés (1 PA).

All five Cardinals looks against Petty are single-digit PA samples, so the line is mostly noise. The two stand-out cells: Masyn Winn 2-for-2 with a double (1.500 SLG), and Pedro Pagés with a home run on his one career swing. Jordan Walker is 1-for-2 with no strikeouts. The functional read: nobody has a deep book on Petty, and the Cardinals batters who have faced him have not been overmatched.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Small sample: Spencer Steer (6 PA), Tyler Stephenson (4 PA), Nathaniel Lowe (3 PA), Eugenio Suárez (4 PA), Will Benson (3 PA), Matt McLain (2 PA), TJ Friedl (3 PA), Sal Stewart (1 PA).

Eight Reds bats with career looks at Leahy, none above 6 PA. TJ Friedl is the loudest cell -- a home run in 3 PA (.500 / .667 / 2.000). JJ Bleday has no career sample, which makes his RISP profile the more useful signal. Spencer Steer is 1-for-6 with a strikeout -- the only Reds bat with a meaningful negative look. Leahy's overall sample (88.0 career IP) is bigger than any individual matchup, so the platoon and TTO splits below carry more weight than these BvP cells.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

Petty is right-handed (career sample), and the table shows the Cardinals carry strong right-handed firepower against RHP: Burleson .478 SLG vs RHP on 419 PA leads the group. Walker's R/R line is the softest spot (.200 / .263 / .291 on 289 PA), but Petty's catastrophic 1.904 OPS vs RHB profile overwhelms the platoon-side disadvantage on paper. Gorman vs RHP is the LHB call to watch -- a .201 AVG but a healthy 37 BB / .294 OBP, which fits Petty's 20.0% career walk rate.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

Leahy is right-handed, and the Reds' platoon table is loaded with RHB volume (Suárez, McLain, Steer, Stephenson, Stewart). Leahy is firmer vs RHB (.589 OPS allowed on 200 PA) than vs LHB (.701 on 163), which favors him against the right-handed core. The cluster to watch is the LHB pool: Lowe (.425 SLG, 47 BB), Bleday (.377 SLG with an 11.4% BB rate), and Friedl (.378 OBP, 64 BB). Suárez's .546 SLG vs RHP on 514 PA is the power threat the platoon table flags loudest.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Leahy's career platoon line is RHB-favorable -- .589 OPS on 200 PA -- and tonight he faces a Reds lineup that projects 8 RHB out of 12 from the active pool. The vulnerability is LHB OBP (.337), which dovetails with the Bleday / Friedl / Lowe / Benson left-handed cluster. Petty's vs-RHB cell is the single loudest line in the document -- 27 PA, 1.904 OPS, 3 HR -- and the Cardinals deploy 5 RHB in tonight's projected order (Herrera, Walker, Winn, Saggese, Pagés). Sample is tiny but the contact has been damaging.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Leahy on the road is a different pitcher than at home -- 2.68 ERA, 46 K against 13 BB on 43.2 IP, and tonight he pitches away. The K rate also lifts on the road (46 K in 43.2 IP vs 34 K in 44.1 IP at home). Petty at home shows a 27.00 ERA on 2.1 IP -- a destroyed sample but the smaller of his two splits. Tonight is his home start, so the working assumption is that the at-home line is the operative one even though both are too small to weight heavily.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Leahy's first time through the order is a known quantity -- 355 PA, .645 OPS, a 21.4% K rate. The TTO2 sample is only 8 PA, so the second-pass story for tonight is functionally unwritten. Petty's TTO1 is a 1.102 OPS on 22 PA and TTO2 is 1.759 OPS on 16 PA -- both samples are tiny but both point the same direction: the contact gets harder once hitters see him. TTO3 is 2 PA, both walks.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

JoJo Romero is the firewall arm -- 26 inherited runners, 3 scored, 88.5% strand rate. That is the bullpen call to lean on if Leahy leaves traffic in a tied middle inning. Matt Svanson (50.0%) and Gordon Graceffo (54.5%) are the danger profiles. Note that Leahy himself carries 29 inherited runners as a reliever (62.1% strand) -- a reminder that he has shifted into a starter look this season.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- CIN

Leahy is a 44.2% career GB pitcher with a balanced FB / LD mix -- a contact-management arm built to live in the bottom of the zone. Petty's 47.6% LD rate on 21 BIP is the eye-popper, but the sample is tiny. The Reds' line-drive AVGs are uniformly hot (Stephenson .739, Myers .702, McLain .662) -- generic for line drives league-wide. The applied read: if Leahy keeps the ball on the ground, the Reds' aerial pop (Suárez 39 HR vs RHP) is muted; if Petty leaves anything elevated, the Cardinals' RHB cluster (Walker 2026 4 HR, Herrera 10 HR vs RHP) has the path to damage.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

Pedro Pagés is Leahy's primary battery partner -- 43 G, 62.0 IP, 3.05 ERA -- and Pagés is in the projected lineup tonight at catcher. That matches the operative pairing. Yohel Pozo's 2.25 ERA on 16.0 IP is a smaller, hotter cell but he is not in the active rotation. Crooks (8.53 ERA on 6.1 IP) is the worst-fit catcher in the sample but is not on the current active roster either. Herrera catching Leahy is a 3.0 IP / 6.00 ERA cell -- he is DH tonight.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Cardinals team running game read (active roster context only):

- Stolen base volume. The active roster carries a multi-threat profile: Herrera, Burleson, Gorman, Walker, Winn, and Saggese have all logged stolen bases in their season lines, with Winn the highest-rate cell on the everyday core.

- Caught-stealing risk. Pagés' .994 fielding percentage at C (110 G) is the defensive anchor, but pop-time and CS% are not in the supplied data. The applied read is to lean on the established success-rate cells (Winn, Walker) and avoid running on Stephenson behind the plate.

- Reds catcher mix. Higgins is listed at C in the active pool, Stephenson and Pagés-equivalent secondary work split among the rest. No CS% surfaced in the pitcher-baserunning cells.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Tonight's projected glove deployment (from the lineup): Winn at SS (129 G, .994, 64 DP) and Pagés at C (110 G, .994) are the two premium defensive cells. Walker in RF brings a .981 / 4 E line on 108 G. Saggese in LF -- a position not present in the supplied fielding table for him -- is the alignment to watch; his strongest sample is at 2B (35 G, .973). Burleson at 1B (.990 on 50 G) and Gorman at 3B (.950 on 54 G, 6 E) round out the infield, with Gorman's 6 errors the loudest defensive risk in the projected order.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Great American Ball Park hosts Game 2 of 3. Park-factor cells are not in the supplied data, but the venue is the long-running hitter-leaning context in the NL Central. The applied read for tonight: any elevated mistake from Petty has a short porch path, and Leahy's 2.68 ERA away split fits the road-favorable side of his career.

Head-to-head shape. STL enters at 28-21 (L2), CIN at 26-24 (W2). The Cardinals are coming off back-to-back home losses to Pittsburgh (0-7 and 2-6); the Reds are riding a W2 streak. The 2026 season series cell is not separately supplied, so the framing is built on the standings shape: a struggling Cardinals club facing a rising Reds club at a hitter-leaning park.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Burleson (14.5% K, 7.2% BB) is the contact anchor in the projected order. The middle (Gorman 33.8%, Walker 31.8%) lifts the team K profile significantly. Against Petty's 20.0% career BB%, the high-K bats can still profit from passive at-bats -- Gorman's 11.7% BB% is the highest in the projected order and the most likely to convert a wild Petty look into a free pass.

Reds

Friedl (16.8% K, 11.8% BB) is the patient contact bat at the top -- exactly the profile that punishes a 7.7% BB% pitcher's first-pitch zone aggression. Stephenson's 33.9% K% is the loudest swing-and-miss cell on the Reds roster but pairs with a 10.8% BB%. Suárez's 29.8% K% on 657 PA is the high-volume strikeout source for Leahy to attack. Bleday's 10.5% BB% is what makes the RISP profile dangerous -- he gets on without needing the swing-and-miss to fall.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Gorman (30.2% GB, 41.7% FB) is the air-ball profile in the projected order -- the lift bat to watch against Petty's 47.6% LD-on-21-BIP wild card. Herrera is the opposite -- 52.6% GB on 285 BIP, a bat that pulls infield rolls. The middle (Winn, Burleson, Pagés) splits ground and air evenly, which fits a generic-park profile against a balanced sinker arm.

Reds

Suárez (40.8% FB on 370 BIP) and Bleday (41.1% FB on 202 BIP) are the two lift bats in the active pool -- the hitters who turn a Leahy mistake at the top of the zone into a slug event at Great American Ball Park. Leahy's 44.2% career GB% works against that aerial tendency, but only if he keeps the sinker down.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

Leahy's 22.0% K% / 7.7% BB% / 2.86 K/BB on 88.0 IP is the established command line. Petty's 20.0% BB% on 6.0 IP is the extreme: more than two and a half times Leahy's walk rate, with a sub-1.0 K/BB. The mathematical edge in the at-bat control belongs squarely to the Cardinals batters tonight if Petty's 2026 sample holds.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Masyn Winn vs Chase Petty. 2-for-2 with a double (1.000 AVG, 1.500 SLG on 2 PA) in the career sample. Tiny line, but the only Cardinals bat with a perfect look against him pairs with Petty's 1.904 OPS vs RHB profile.

Jordan Walker vs Chase Petty. Walker carries a .286 AVG / .924 RISP OPS on 67 PA in 2026 and is 1-for-2 against Petty in the career sample. The cleanup bat is the right place to attack a 4.76-ERA arm carrying a 20.0% career walk rate.

JJ Bleday vs Kyle Leahy. No career BvP sample. The matchup edge is RISP: 1.289 OPS on 24 PA. Leahy is firmer vs RHB (.589 OPS allowed) than vs LHB (.701), so Bleday's left-handed look is the one to game-plan around.

X-factor: Sal Stewart. 58 RISP PA, .936 OPS (.255 / .362 / .574). The Reds' highest-volume right-handed slugger in scoring spots, 1-for-1 against Leahy. He turns a Bleday walk into a multi-run frame if Leahy leaves a sinker up.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Jordan Walker performed against Chase Petty in their career?

2. How has Kyle Leahy fared against JJ Bleday in their career?

3. How has Sal Stewart performed against JoJo Romero in their career?

4. What are Kyle Leahy's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are JJ Bleday's splits vs RHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Great American Ball Park in 2025?