NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

NL WEST STANDINGS

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

STARTING PITCHERS

Matthew Liberatore (L, STL)

2026 to date: 0-1, 4.75 ERA, 30.1 IP, 19 K, 11 BB, 8 HR, 1.55 WHIP across 6 starts -- 14.1% K%, 8.1% BB%, 42.0% GB%. The K-rate is well below his career line (18.8% on 151.2 IP), and the 8 HR allowed in 30.1 IP is the structural concern. 2025 baseline platoon: vs RHB .265 / .304 / .426 (.691 OPS, 515 PA), vs LHB .274 / .348 / .410 (.684 OPS, 133 PA) -- minimal platoon spread. 2025 home/away nearly even (3.69 home / 4.03 away).

Emmet Sheehan (R, LAD)

2026 to date: 2-0, 4.78 ERA, 26.1 IP, 28 K, 9 BB, 4 HR, 1.25 WHIP across 5 starts -- 25.5% K%, 8.2% BB%, 50.0% GB%. The K-rate is the carry skill. 2025 baseline platoon: vs LHB .180 / .289 / .333 (.513 OPS, 128 PA), vs RHB .225 / .267 / .348 (.573 OPS, 202 PA) -- both sides suppressed, slight reverse-platoon at OPS. 2025 home/away is the lopsided split: home 2.08 ERA / 47.2 IP / 57 K; away 4.64 ERA / 33.0 IP / 38 K. Today is at Busch -- the away (worse) context for Sheehan.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-04-30)

Handedness: 6 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Urías, Winn, Pozo, Saggese), 3 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Scott).

Dodgers (From active roster)

12 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

Handedness: 6 RHB (Call, Pages, Rojas, Espinal, Hernández, Smith), 5 LHB (Rushing, Freeman, Kim, Tucker, Muncy).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No Phase 2 injury web search performed for this run. JSON does not carry an injury list.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

Small sample: Ivan Herrera (3 PA), Yohel Pozo (2 PA), Masyn Winn (2 PA), Alec Burleson (2 PA), Ramon Urias (2 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA).

No Cardinals starter has more than 3 PA against Sheehan. Every line is small-sample. Herrera (0-for-3, 3 K) and Burleson (0-for-2) are the only rows with strikeouts; Urias is 1-for-2 with a double-equivalent SLG, but two-PA samples carry no signal. Wetherholt, Scott, and Saggese -- No data. The matchup turns on platoon, TTO, and Sheehan's 2025 home/away split, not on BvP history.

Bench note: No bench BvP rows beyond the projected starters appear in the JSON.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Small sample: Santiago Espinal (6 PA), Kyle Tucker (6 PA), Freddie Freeman (6 PA), Will Smith (5 PA), Teoscar Hernandez (4 PA), Miguel Rojas (3 PA), Andy Pages (2 PA), Alex Freeland (2 PA), Alex Call (2 PA).

Freeman is the lead. 4-for-5 with 0 K is the kind of look that historically translates to a present-day approach edge -- the swing decisions are baked in. Smith at 2-for-4 with a walk in 5 PA is the secondary note. Tucker, Espinal, Hernandez, Rojas, Freeland are all 0-for or below the Mendoza in their few PA but at sample sizes that don't predict tonight. Pages 1-for-2 and Call 1-for-2 are decoration.

Bench note: No additional opponent BvP samples in the JSON beyond the rows above.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

Sheehan is right-handed, so this is the Cardinals' 2025 vs-RHP profile. Burleson (.296 / .353 / .478, 419 PA) is again the only bat with a clean RHP line at volume; Herrera (.268 / .343 / .399, 328 PA) is the second-best vs-RHP option. The structural soft spot is Walker -- .200 / .263 / .291 in 289 PA with a 32.5%-equivalent K rate (94 K), which lines up cleanly with Sheehan's 2025 25.5%-2026 K%. Sheehan vs RHB suppresses to .225 / .267 / .348 (.573 OPS), so the right-handed bulk of the order (6 of 9) is heading into the harder side.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

Liberatore is left-handed, so this is the Dodgers' 2025 vs-LHP profile. Freeman (.283 / .345 / .503, 206 PA, 9 HR) is the best LHB-vs-LHP line in the lineup -- a meaningful note since most LHBs lose ground against LHP. Tucker (.272 / .367 / .467, 208 PA, 9 HR) is the comparable other-side LHB. On the right-handed side, Call (.306 / .360 / .459 in 128 PA), Rojas (.289, 142 PA, 6 HR), and Pages (.287, 167 PA) all hit LHP at quality lines. Liberatore vs LHB allowed .274 / .348 / .410 (.684 OPS) in 2025 -- the lefties on this Dodgers roster are not a hand-side advantage for him.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Liberatore's 2025 platoon split is essentially flat: vs RHB .691 OPS, vs LHB .684 OPS. He does not get the typical reverse-LHP advantage and walks LHB at a higher rate (.348 OBP vs LHB vs .304 vs RHB). The Dodgers' 5 LHB / 6 RHB roster mix is therefore neutral against him -- there is no exploitable hand-side seam. Sheehan is the inverse story: vs LHB .513 OPS (.180 / .289 / .333) and vs RHB .573 OPS (.225 / .267 / .348). The Cardinals' 6-RHB / 3-LHB lineup leans into the slightly-less-suppressed RHB side, but both lines are well below average regardless.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Tonight's game is at Busch -- Liberatore at home, Sheehan on the road. Sheehan's home/away split in 2025 is the loudest line on either staff: 2.08 ERA at home (47.2 IP, 57 K, 2 HR) vs 4.64 ERA away (33.0 IP, 38 K, 5 HR). The HR rate doubles on the road. Liberatore's split is small (3.69 home / 4.03 away, ~30 IP each) -- venue does not move him much. The structural read is that the Cardinals are catching Sheehan in the worse half of his split.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Liberatore's 2025 TTO arc is the cliff-and-recovery shape: TTO1 .237 / .376 / .613 (264 PA), TTO2 .310 / .511 / .821 (252 PA -- the cliff), TTO3 .244 / .353 / .597 (132 PA -- a recovery, but partly because he rarely sees a third pass). The window of damage is innings 4-6. Today the Dodgers' top of the order would reach TTO2 in those frames; that is where the score is likely to move.

Sheehan is the inverse: TTO1 .242 / .373 / .615 (168 PA) is the rockiest pass, TTO2 .196 / .346 / .542 (119 PA) tightens, TTO3 .105 / .211 / .316 (43 PA) is dominant on a small sample. He gets stronger as the game progresses. The Cardinals' chance is the first three innings -- the first pass through the order is the highest-OPS window against him.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

League-average strand rate is roughly 68-72%. Romero (88.5% on 26 IR) is the high-leverage choice on an inherited-runner moment. Svanson (50.0% on 26 IR) and Graceffo (54.5% on 11 IR) are the low-strand arms to avoid in those spots. Leahy (62.1%) is the soft middle. With Liberatore's TTO2 cliff sitting in innings 4-6 against a .283-.287 LHB-vs-LHP top of the order (Freeman, plus the RHB Pages and Call), the bullpen choice in the middle innings is a real fork.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- LAD

Liberatore's career batted-ball profile is the second-most fly-ball-leaning configuration of any starter the Cardinals have rolled out this stretch (39.1% GB, 31.3% FB, 27.6% LD on 463 BIP), and he has already allowed 8 HR in 30.1 IP this year. The career LD-AVG numbers in the Dodgers room are uniformly elevated -- Smith .688, Call .684, Freeman .667, Tucker .628 -- so the path of damage is clear: line drives, with the long ball tail. Sheehan's career mix (35.2% GB, 35.7% FB, 28.6% LD on 199 BIP) is balanced; against the Cardinals lineup, Herrera's career 52.6% GB rate (in 2M) is the highest in the room and the one most likely to put a ball on the ground.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

Tonight's projected catcher per the lineup is Ivan Herrera (2-hole), who does not appear in the Liberatore battery table -- the listed pairings are Pedro Pagés (75.2 IP, 3.93 ERA), Yohel Pozo (63.2 IP, 4.10 ERA), and Jimmy Crooks (11.0 IP, 2.45 ERA). With Pagés currently absent from the lineup pool and Pozo slotted at DH, the Liberatore-Herrera battery is the de facto starting combo and is not summarized in the table. Treat the table as historical context, not a tonight-specific read.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Kyle Tucker -- 25 SB, 3 CS, 89.3% success rate. The premier active runner in the Dodgers room; reaches against Liberatore and the steal threat is on every pitch. Liberatore is left-handed, so the pickoff move is the structural counter -- but Tucker's success rate is high enough that the threat doesn't go away.

Andy Pages -- 14 SB, 7 CS, 66.7%. Modest success rate, but volume is real.

Hyeseong Kim -- 13 SB, 1 CS, 92.9%. Highest success rate on the roster; speed is the carry skill.

Freddie Freeman -- 6 SB, 2 CS, 75.0%. Modest but live.

Miguel Rojas -- 5 SB, 0 CS, 100%. Small-volume but perfect.

Teoscar Hernandez -- 5 SB, 2 CS, 71.4%. Occasional runner.

Santiago Espinal -- 2 SB, 1 CS, 66.7%. Negligible.

Alex Call -- 2 SB, 1 CS, 66.7%. Negligible.

Tucker and Kim are the names to anticipate. Herrera behind the plate plus the LHP Liberatore is a partial counter to the Tucker threat -- but a 89% career rate is loud regardless.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Tonight's defensive alignment per the Cardinals lineup: Wetherholt 2B (no fielding sample in the table), Herrera C, Burleson 1B, Walker RF, Urias 3B, Winn SS, Saggese LF, Scott CF. Winn at SS (.994 fielding pct, 64 DP in 129 G) and Burleson at 1B (.990 in 50 G) anchor the infield. Wetherholt is starting at 2B; the 2B fielding samples in the table belong to Saggese (.973 in 35 G) and Urias (1.000 in 26 G), not to tonight's starter at the position. The skeleton fielding table is reference material; the lineup card is authoritative.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Busch Stadium plays as a slightly pitcher-leaning venue historically -- a qualitative read; no numeric park factor in the JSON. Recent head-to-head record by season: 2025 STL 4-2, 2024 STL 2-5, 2023 STL 3-4, 2022 STL 2-4. The 2025 line is the only winning split in the four-year window.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Sheehan's 2025 K-rate against RHB (28.2%-equivalent on 57 K / 202 PA) and 2026 K% (25.5%) line up against a Cardinals bat group where Walker (31.8%), Saggese (28.1%), and Scott (24.0%) are the strikeout exposures. Burleson (14.5% 2025 K%) and Pozo (13.1%) are the contact bats; if anyone is going to tag Sheehan in the first pass, those are the names.

Dodgers

Tucker (14.6% 2025 BB%) and Smith (14.7%) are the patient bats Liberatore must respect; combined with his 2025 vs-LHB .348 OBP, walks are a real path to base for the Dodgers. Espinal (11.6% K%, 6.4% BB%) is the toughest contact out. The strikeout exposure clusters in the bench/depth pieces -- Rushing 37.4%, Freeland 36.1%, Muncy 30.9%, Kim 30.6% -- but Liberatore's 14.1% 2026 K% / 18.8% career K% is not the strikeout profile to capitalize on those rates.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Sheehan's 2026 GB% (50.0%) leans heavier than his career profile (35.2%) and stacks well against Herrera's 52.6% career GB rate -- the catcher's at-bats are the most plausible double-play sources. Burleson (42.0% career GB) and Pozo (40.6%) are the closest-to-balanced profiles in this lineup.

Dodgers

Liberatore's 31.3% career FB% and 8 HR allowed in 30.1 IP this year run into a Dodgers room with three FB-leaning bats: Smith 37.3%, Tucker 35.9%, Pages 34.0%. Tucker (.122 career FB AVG, 9 HR vs LHP in 2025) and Smith (.100 FB AVG, 4 HR vs LHP in 2025) are the launch-angle threats. Freeman's profile is balanced (43.3% GB, 29.7% FB, 27.0% LD) -- the line drives are the path of damage given his .667 career LD AVG and 4-for-5 BvP line. Hernandez's 50.0% career GB and Kim's 53.8% are ground-ball sources that benefit Liberatore if his sinker is on.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

Liberatore's 2026 to date: 0-1, 4.75 ERA, 19 K, 11 BB in 30.1 IP -- 14.1% K%, 8.1% BB%. Career baseline (151.2 IP): 18.8% K%, 6.2% BB%, 3.05 K/BB. The 2026 K-rate has dropped meaningfully from the career line, and the BB-rate is up; the 8 HR in 30.1 IP is the structural risk. Sheehan's 2026 to date: 2-0, 4.78 ERA, 28 K, 9 BB in 26.1 IP -- 25.5% K%, 8.2% BB%. Career baseline (73.1 IP): 30.6% K%, 7.6% BB%, 4.05 K/BB. The K-rate gap (Sheehan's 25.5%-2026 / 30.6%-career vs Liberatore's 14.1%-2026 / 18.8%-career) is the structural mismatch of this game; the offset is Sheehan's road ERA and Liberatore's HR rate.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Freeman vs Liberatore (career BvP). 6 PA, 5 AB, 4 H, 0 HR, 0 BB, 0 K -- .800 / .833 / .800. Below the formal 10-PA / .400 BvP-danger threshold, but the only real career sample in the Dodgers lineup against Liberatore. Pairs with Freeman's 2025 vs-LHP profile (.283 / .345 / .503, 9 HR in 206 PA). The lead matchup of the night.

Walker vs Sheehan (platoon + K-rate). 2 PA career line is empty signal. The real read is Walker's 2025 vs-RHP line (.200 / .263 / .291, 31.8% K%) running into Sheehan's 2026 25.5% K% / career 30.6%. The 4-spot is the rough at-bat tonight.

Burleson vs Sheehan (lone Cardinals contact bat). 14.5% K% career, .296 / .353 / .478 vs RHP in 2025. Even on Sheehan's home line (where he's been dominant), Burleson's contact profile is the one swing the Cardinals trust against an above-average K-rate righty.

Tucker on the bases. 89.3% career SB success rate. Liberatore is left-handed, which is the structural counter to a left-handed runner -- pickoff move plays better than a slide step. But Tucker's volume (25 SB / 3 CS) is loud enough that the threat is live the moment he reaches first.

Sheehan home/away split. 2.08 ERA at home, 4.64 ERA away (2025). Today is at Busch -- the away half. The HR rate doubles on the road. If Sheehan is going to be hit, it's the early innings here, not the third pass through the order where he tightens.

Liberatore TTO2 cliff. 2025 second pass: .310 / .511 / .821 in 252 PA. Innings 4-6 are where Freeman and the Dodgers' top of the order would reach TTO2; the bullpen choice (Romero 88.5% strand vs Svanson 50.0%) shapes whether the score moves there.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Freddie Freeman performed against Matthew Liberatore in their career?

2. How has Emmet Sheehan fared against Jordan Walker in their career?

3. What are Matthew Liberatore's second-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

4. What are Emmet Sheehan's home/away splits in 2025?

5. What is Kyle Tucker's stolen-base rate in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?