NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | 16-8 | - | W5 |
| Cubs | 14-9 | 1.5 | W7 |
| Cardinals | 14-9 | 1.5 | W1 |
| Brewers | 13-9 | 2.0 | W1 |
| Pirates | 13-10 | 2.5 | L1 |
NL EAST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 16-8 | - | L1 |
| Marlins | 11-13 | 5.0 | L1 |
| Nationals | 11-13 | 5.0 | W1 |
| Phillies | 8-15 | 7.5 | L7 |
| Mets | 7-16 | 8.5 | L12 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21 | MIA | Away | W 5-3 |
| Apr 20 | MIA | Away | L 3-5 |
| Apr 19 | HOU | Away | W 7-5 (10) |
| Apr 18 | HOU | Away | W 7-5 |
| Apr 17 | HOU | Away | W 9-4 |
| Apr 15 | CLE | Home | W 5-3 |
| Apr 14 | CLE | Home | W 6-5 (10) |
| Apr 13 | CLE | Home | L 3-9 |
| Apr 12 | BOS | Home | L 3-9 |
| Apr 11 | BOS | Home | L 1-7 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Kyle Leahy (R) -- Cardinals
2026 to date: 2-2, 5.21 ERA across 4 starts and 19.0 IP. 13 K, 8 BB, 21 H, 4 HR allowed, 1.53 WHIP. Ground-ball lean (61.9% GB%) but 9.3% BB% is elevated. His 2025 baseline was 22.0% K% / 7.7% BB% (Section 2N) -- the 2026 strikeout rate has not yet caught up.
Janson Junk (R) -- Marlins
2026 to date: 0-2, 4.50 ERA across 4 starts and 22.0 IP. 15 K, 6 BB, 23 H, 2 HR allowed, 1.32 WHIP. 16.1% K%, 6.5% BB%. His 2025 baseline was 17.2% K% / 2.9% BB% with a 5.92 K/BB ratio (Section 2N) -- the walk rate has more than doubled early this year and is the regression flag worth watching.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-04-21)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .250 | .730 |
| 2 | Herrera | C | R | .250 | .817 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .333 | .849 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .185 | .720 |
| 5 | Urías | 3B | R | .000 | .182 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .136 | .441 |
| 7 | Pozo | DH | R | .222 | .555 |
| 8 | Saggese | LF | R | .188 | .485 |
| 9 | Scott | CF | L | .133 | .355 |
Handedness: 6 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Urías, Winn, Pozo, Saggese), 3 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Scott).
Marlins (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Ramírez | C | R |
| Slater | LF | R |
| Norby | 3B | R |
| Pauley | 3B | L |
| Hernández | LF | R |
| Marsee | CF | L |
| Sanoja | 2B | R |
| Stowers | LF | L |
| Jiménez | SS | R |
| Hicks | C | L |
| Lopez | 2B | R |
| Caissie | RF | L |
| Edwards | SS | S |
Handedness: 7 RHB (Ramírez, Slater, Norby, Hernández, Sanoja, Jiménez, Lopez), 5 LHB (Pauley, Marsee, Stowers, Hicks, Caissie).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No Phase 2 injury web search performed for this run. Refer to team beat reporting for active IL status before publish.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
No data available for this section.
Phase 1 returned no career BvP between any Cardinals batter and Junk. The Cardinals are essentially facing him blind -- the matchup will be defined by Junk's pitch mix and game-plan execution today, not by historical BvP signal.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history against Junk.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Austin Slater | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Agustín Ramírez | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Otto Lopez (2 PA), Austin Slater (1 PA), Agustín Ramírez (1 PA).
Three Marlins have any career PA against Leahy: Lopez (2 PA, 0-for-2, 1 K), Slater (1 PA), and Ramírez (1 PA). Combined four PA, all hitless, statistically meaningless. Leahy is effectively new to this lineup.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Victor Scott L | 332 | .221 | .310 | .317 | 5 | 31 | 75 |
| Ivan Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Ramon Urias R | 273 | .233 | .278 | .367 | 7 | 17 | 57 |
| Thomas Saggese R | 227 | .254 | .305 | .340 | 1 | 15 | 63 |
| Yohel Pozo R | 126 | .217 | .254 | .358 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
Burleson is the standout vs RHP -- .296/.353/.478 across 419 PA is the lineup's best line against right-handed pitching. With Junk on the mound and 3 LHB projected (Wetherholt, Burleson, Scott), the platoon math leans Cards' way given Junk's reverse splits (see 2D).
Walker's .200/.263/.291 vs RHP with 94 K in 289 PA is the soft spot in the heart of the order. Herrera (.268/.343/.399) and Urías (.367 SLG) provide the right-handed depth.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards B | 421 | .306 | .368 | .391 | 3 | 35 | 57 |
| Agustín Ramírez R | 419 | .238 | .289 | .432 | 15 | 23 | 70 |
| Otto Lopez R | 403 | .270 | .333 | .413 | 12 | 32 | 52 |
| Kyle Stowers L | 356 | .297 | .377 | .597 | 24 | 39 | 106 |
| Liam Hicks L | 324 | .256 | .349 | .367 | 6 | 35 | 46 |
| Connor Norby R | 236 | .277 | .301 | .429 | 6 | 5 | 63 |
| Javier Sanoja R | 209 | .249 | .288 | .399 | 3 | 12 | 22 |
| Heriberto Hernandez R | 170 | .270 | .347 | .439 | 6 | 16 | 41 |
| Graham Pauley L | 160 | .224 | .300 | .371 | 4 | 16 | 34 |
| Jakob Marsee L | 153 | .274 | .359 | .437 | 2 | 16 | 30 |
| Austin Slater R | 67 | .206 | .242 | .286 | 0 | 3 | 23 |
| Owen Caissie L | 27 | .192 | .222 | .346 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| Leo Jimenez R | 11 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Stowers is the matchup risk vs RHP: .297/.377/.597 with 24 HR in 356 PA -- Leahy is right-handed. Edwards leads the lineup pool in OBP (.368 vs RHP, 421 PA). Ramírez (.432 SLG) and Hicks (.349 OBP) round out the live left-handed-friendly threats.
Caissie (.192/.222/.346) and Slater (.206/.242/.286) are the soft spots if either appears in the order. Jiménez (0-for-10) is the smallest sample, no signal yet.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janson Junk | vs LHB | 235 | .294 | .328 | .459 | .753 | 6 | 36 |
| Janson Junk | vs RHB | 212 | .236 | .246 | .330 | .566 | 2 | 41 |
| Kyle Leahy | vs LHB | 163 | .252 | .337 | .364 | .616 | 3 | 37 |
| Kyle Leahy | vs RHB | 200 | .238 | .270 | .319 | .557 | 2 | 43 |
Junk's reverse splits (.753 OPS vs LHB, .566 vs RHB) flip the typical platoon math -- Cardinals LHB are the offensive lever today, not RHB. Leahy is the more conventional pitcher: better vs RHB (.557 OPS) than LHB (.616), which sets up well against a Marlins lineup that runs 5 LHB on the active roster pool.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janson Junk | Away | 239 | 60.0 | 3.30 | 37 | 5 | 4 |
| Janson Junk | Home | 208 | 50.0 | 4.50 | 40 | 8 | 4 |
| Kyle Leahy | Away | 173 | 43.2 | 2.68 | 46 | 13 | 2 |
| Kyle Leahy | Home | 190 | 44.1 | 4.47 | 34 | 15 | 3 |
Today's game is at loanDepot park. Junk pitching at home -- his weaker split (4.50 ERA vs 3.30 away). Leahy pitching away -- his stronger split (2.68 ERA vs 4.47 home). Both pitchers are on the favorable side of their venue splits for the Cardinals' chances.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janson Junk | TTO1 | 189 | .194 | .311 | .505 | 4 | 38 | 4 |
| Janson Junk | TTO2 | 181 | .314 | .477 | .791 | 4 | 29 | 5 |
| Janson Junk | TTO3 | 77 | .333 | .420 | .753 | 0 | 10 | 4 |
| Kyle Leahy | TTO1 | 355 | .247 | .341 | .588 | 5 | 76 | 28 |
| Kyle Leahy | TTO2 | 8 | .125 | .250 | .375 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Junk's first-to-second pass jump is dramatic: AVG .194 to .314, OPS .505 to .791. The window opens in innings 3-5 when the Cardinals see him for the second pass. If he stretches to TTO3 (career .333/.420/.753 in 77 PA), the door stays open into the sixth.
Leahy's TTO2 sample is just 8 PA -- too small to read. He has historically been used in shorter outings, so opponent benches and pinch-hitters are the leverage point if Leahy turns the order over.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Ryan Fernandez | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate sits roughly 68-72%. Romero (88.5% on 26 IR) is the elite stranding arm and the right call when a starter exits with traffic. Svanson (50.0%), Fernandez (50.0%), and Graceffo (54.5%) are well below league average -- inheriting runners with these arms is the bullpen's leak.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janson Junk | 345 | 41.4% | 30.7% | 27.0% |
| Kyle Leahy | 249 | 44.2% | 26.9% | 27.7% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- MIA
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Caissie | .000 | .500 | .250 |
| Xavier Edwards | .290 | .560 | .126 |
| Heriberto Hernandez | .325 | .725 | .077 |
| Liam Hicks | .183 | .532 | .171 |
| Leo Jimenez | .100 | .000 | .000 |
| Otto Lopez | .227 | .542 | .079 |
| Jakob Marsee | .278 | .683 | .186 |
| Connor Norby | .218 | .714 | .157 |
| Graham Pauley | .224 | .607 | .091 |
| Agustín Ramírez | .176 | .598 | .093 |
| Javier Sanoja | .287 | .443 | .045 |
| Austin Slater | .156 | .667 | .136 |
| Kyle Stowers | .271 | .696 | .178 |
Both starters lean ground (Junk 41.4% career GB%, Leahy 44.2%). The Marlins' lineup is heavy ground in turn -- Lopez 50.4%, Ramírez 49.4%, Slater 49.5%, Edwards 47.9% (Section 2M). Expect a ground-ball-tilted game with Winn, Wetherholt, and Saggese busy on the dirt.
Marlins line-drive AVGs are uniformly punishing (Hernández .725, Norby .714, Stowers .696, Marsee .683). When the ball is squared up, Leahy's contact damage spikes -- the LD% he allows (27.7%) is the at-risk number.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 43 | 62.0 | 3.05 | .225 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 13 | 16.0 | 2.25 | .259 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 4 | 6.1 | 8.53 | .346 | -- | -- |
| Ivan Herrera | 4 | 3.0 | 6.00 | .308 | -- | -- |
Of the four catchers above, Pagés, Pozo, and Herrera are on tonight's active Cardinals roster. Jimmy Crooks is NOT on tonight's active roster -- his 4 G / 8.53 ERA line with Leahy is historical context only and should not be read as an in-play option for today.
Tonight's scheduled catcher is Iván Herrera (lineup order #2). The Herrera-Leahy battery is just 4 G / 3.0 IP of shared history with a 6.00 ERA and .308 AVG against -- a thin and unflattering sample. Read it as a fresh battery: pop-time calibration, signal sequencing, and pitch-frame tendencies are still being established between this pair. Watch the first pass through the order for early mistake-call evidence.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Marlins career SB leaders on the active roster pool:
-- Xavier Edwards: 27 SB / 7 CS (79.4% success). Top-of-roster speed threat.
-- Agustín Ramírez: 16 SB / 3 CS (84.2%). Catcher who runs.
-- Otto Lopez: 15 SB / 6 CS (71.4%).
-- Jakob Marsee: 14 SB / 6 CS (70.0%).
-- Connor Norby: 8 SB / 2 CS (80.0%).
-- Javier Sanoja: 6 SB / 5 CS (54.5%).
-- Kyle Stowers: 5 SB / 1 CS (83.3%).
-- Liam Hicks: 2 SB / 0 CS (100%). Graham Pauley: 2 SB / 0 CS (100%). Heriberto Hernández: 1 SB / 1 CS. Austin Slater: 1 SB / 0 CS.
With Herrera behind the plate (only 4 G / 3.0 IP shared history with Leahy) and Edwards' active-roster speed at the top, the running game is live.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Scott | CF | 136 | 3 | 6 | 0.982 |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Ramon Urias | 3B | 78 | 20 | 4 | 0.979 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Yohel Pozo | C | 46 | 0 | 5 | 0.982 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2B | 35 | 24 | 4 | 0.973 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Thomas Saggese | SS | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0.988 |
| Ramon Urias | 2B | 26 | 7 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 3B | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0.939 |
| Ivan Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Victor Scott | RF | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Yohel Pozo | 1B | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Victor Scott | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ramon Urias | 1B | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Winn's .994 Fld% and 64 DP at SS is the spine of the infield defense -- relevant given how many ground balls today's matchup figures to produce. Walker's 4 E in 108 G in RF is the only real defensive flag in the projected lineup. Burleson's profile spans 1B/LF/RF (and one P appearance), useful versatility for late-inning matchup juggling.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
loanDepot park has historically played as a pitcher-leaning venue. Recent head-to-head: 2025 3-3, 2024 3-3, 2023 4-3 STL, 2022 4-2 STL. The series has been an even split each of the last two seasons after Cardinals advantages in 2022 and 2023.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Victor Scott | 463 | 111 | 24.0% | 42 | 9.1% |
| Ivan Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Ramon Urias | 391 | 88 | 22.5% | 27 | 6.9% |
| Thomas Saggese | 295 | 83 | 28.1% | 16 | 5.4% |
| Yohel Pozo | 168 | 22 | 13.1% | 7 | 4.2% |
Walker's 31.8% K rate is the lineup outlier -- the cleanup spot is a strikeout hole if Junk gets ahead in counts. Saggese (28.1% K, 5.4% BB) is the contact-and-walk concern further down. Burleson (14.5%) and Pozo (13.1%) anchor the contact backbone.
Marlins
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards | 619 | 88 | 14.2% | 49 | 7.9% |
| Otto Lopez | 594 | 82 | 13.8% | 44 | 7.4% |
| Agustín Ramírez | 585 | 113 | 19.3% | 36 | 6.2% |
| Kyle Stowers | 457 | 125 | 27.4% | 48 | 10.5% |
| Liam Hicks | 390 | 56 | 14.4% | 43 | 11.0% |
| Javier Sanoja | 342 | 41 | 12.0% | 19 | 5.6% |
| Connor Norby | 337 | 90 | 26.7% | 18 | 5.3% |
| Heriberto Hernandez | 294 | 77 | 26.2% | 31 | 10.5% |
| Jakob Marsee | 234 | 48 | 20.5% | 22 | 9.4% |
| Graham Pauley | 184 | 36 | 19.6% | 21 | 11.4% |
| Austin Slater | 160 | 51 | 31.9% | 11 | 6.9% |
| Leo Jimenez | 32 | 8 | 25.0% | 2 | 6.3% |
| Owen Caissie | 27 | 11 | 40.7% | 1 | 3.7% |
Six Marlins on the active pool sit above the 25% high-K threshold: Caissie (40.7%), Slater (31.9%), Stowers (27.4%), Norby (26.7%), Hernández (26.2%), Jiménez (25.0%). If Leahy's K stuff is on, the strikeouts will pile. Sanoja's 12.0% K is best in the pool and the hardest at-bat to crack. Hicks (11.0%) and Pauley (11.4%) are the disciplined-walk threats.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Victor Scott | 259 | 40.2% | 32.0% | 27.8% |
| Ramon Urias | 253 | 45.1% | 29.2% | 25.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Thomas Saggese | 189 | 41.8% | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| Yohel Pozo | 133 | 40.6% | 33.1% | 26.3% |
Herrera's 52.6% GB rate is the lineup's highest -- against Junk's 41.4% career GB profile, expect chopped contact and DP risk. Walker's 48.9% GB also leans down rather than over the wall.
Marlins
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards | 453 | 47.9% | 24.5% | 27.6% |
| Otto Lopez | 446 | 50.4% | 25.6% | 24.0% |
| Agustín Ramírez | 403 | 49.4% | 26.6% | 24.1% |
| Liam Hicks | 269 | 44.6% | 26.0% | 29.4% |
| Javier Sanoja | 258 | 47.3% | 25.6% | 27.1% |
| Kyle Stowers | 249 | 43.0% | 29.3% | 27.7% |
| Connor Norby | 213 | 40.8% | 32.9% | 26.3% |
| Heriberto Hernandez | 169 | 45.6% | 30.8% | 23.7% |
| Jakob Marsee | 156 | 46.2% | 27.6% | 26.3% |
| Graham Pauley | 121 | 40.5% | 36.4% | 23.1% |
| Austin Slater | 91 | 49.5% | 24.2% | 26.4% |
| Leo Jimenez | 32 | 50.0% | 30.0% | 20.0% |
| Owen Caissie | 14 | 28.6% | 28.6% | 42.9% |
Lopez (50.4%), Jiménez (50.0%), Slater (49.5%), Ramírez (49.4%), and Edwards (47.9%) all run high GB rates. Vs Leahy's 44.2% career GB rate, expect a ground-ball heavy game with Winn, Wetherholt, and Saggese busy on the dirt.
Caissie's 42.9% LD rate (small sample, 14 BIP) is the outlier worth watching if he reaches the order.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE (2025)
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janson Junk | 110.0 | 77 | 17.2% | 13 | 2.9% | 5.92 |
| Kyle Leahy | 88.0 | 80 | 22.0% | 28 | 7.7% | 2.86 |
Junk's 5.92 K/BB ratio in 2025 was elite -- driven by an absurdly low 2.9% BB%. He doesn't strike out the world (17.2%) but he refused to give away free bases. Leahy's 2.86 K/BB in 2025 is roughly average; the gap is the 7.7% BB% he carried. Note: Junk's 2026 walk rate is already up to 6.5% in 22.0 IP -- if that holds, the K/BB edge evaporates. Whoever blinks first on free passes likely loses the close-leverage innings.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Burleson vs Junk. Burleson's .296/.353/.478 vs RHP across 419 PA (Section 2C) collides directly with Junk's reverse-platoon weakness (.753 OPS vs LHB in Section 2D). The single highest-leverage individual matchup of the day for the Cardinals offense.
Stowers vs Leahy. Stowers .297/.377/.597 vs RHP with 24 HR in 356 PA (Section 2C). Leahy's .616 OPS allowed to LHB (Section 2D) is solid but not impervious. Stowers is the corner-power swing that decides whether Miami wins the rubber.
Cardinals lineup at TTO2. Junk's AVG jumps from .194 to .314 between TTO1 and TTO2 (Section 2E), a +.120-point swing. Innings 3-5 are where the Cards' run-scoring window is widest.
Bullpen edge. Romero's 88.5% strand rate (Section 2F) versus Svanson and Fernandez at 50% -- which Cardinals arm enters with traffic decides the middle innings if Leahy exits with men on.
X-factor. Edwards' 27 career SB at 79.4% (Section 2I) against the Herrera-Leahy battery (4 G / 3.0 IP shared, Section 2H). Pop-time calibration is uncertain with this fresh battery -- the steal game tilts toward Miami.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
-- "What is Junk's pitch mix vs LHB this season?"
-- "How is Leahy attacking Stowers in this AB -- pitch-by-pitch?"
-- "Bullpen usage for STL last 3 days -- who is unavailable today?"
-- "Edwards stolen base success rate vs RHP catchers in 2025."
-- "Live park factors at loanDepot park 2026 to date."
-- "Marlins record in TTO3 starts in 2026."
-- "Current weather and wind direction at loanDepot park."
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025