NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | 15-8 | - | W4 |
| Pirates | 13-9 | 1.5 | W1 |
| Cubs | 13-9 | 1.5 | W6 |
| Cardinals | 13-9 | 1.5 | L1 |
| Brewers | 12-9 | 2.0 | L1 |
NL EAST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 16-7 | - | W6 |
| Marlins | 11-12 | 5.0 | W2 |
| Nationals | 10-13 | 6.0 | L1 |
| Phillies | 8-14 | 7.5 | L6 |
| Mets | 7-15 | 8.5 | L11 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20 | MIA | Away | L 3-5 |
| Apr 19 | HOU | Away | W 7-5 (10) |
| Apr 18 | HOU | Away | W 7-5 |
| Apr 17 | HOU | Away | W 9-4 |
| Apr 15 | CLE | Home | W 5-3 |
| Apr 14 | CLE | Home | W 6-5 (10) |
| Apr 13 | CLE | Home | L 3-9 |
| Apr 12 | BOS | Home | L 3-9 |
| Apr 11 | BOS | Home | L 1-7 |
| Apr 10 | BOS | Home | W 3-2 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Dustin May (R) -- STL. 2-2, 6.98 ERA, 19.1 IP, 15 K, 4 BB, 1.60 WHIP through 4 starts. Allowed 27 H and 2 HR. Career K% 21.1, BB% 9.6. GB% 44.1. The splits tell the story: 3.24 ERA at home (75.0 IP career) vs 6.28 ERA on the road (57.1 IP). Tonight he's the road version.
Chris Paddack (R) -- MIA. 0-3, 5.59 ERA, 19.1 IP, 18 K, 5 BB, 1.45 WHIP through 3 starts. Already 4 HR surrendered. Career K% 16.7, BB% 5.5, K/BB 3.03. FB% 34.3 -- the league's most fly-ball-prone of the two. Home ERA 4.41 career, and he's home tonight.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-04-20)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .250 | .730 |
| 2 | Herrera | C | R | .263 | .851 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .321 | .839 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .208 | .803 |
| 5 | Urías | 3B | R | .000 | .182 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .136 | .441 |
| 7 | Pozo | DH | R | .222 | .555 |
| 8 | Saggese | LF | R | .188 | .485 |
| 9 | Scott | CF | L | .133 | .355 |
Handedness: 6 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Urías, Winn, Pozo, Saggese), 3 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Scott).
Marlins (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Ramírez | C | R |
| Slater | LF | R |
| Norby | 3B | R |
| Pauley | 3B | L |
| Hernández | LF | R |
| Marsee | CF | L |
| Sanoja | 2B | R |
| Stowers | LF | L |
| Jiménez | SS | R |
| Hicks | C | L |
| Lopez | 2B | R |
| Caissie | RF | L |
| Edwards | SS | S |
Handedness: 7 RHB (Ramírez, Slater, Norby, Hernández, Sanoja, Jiménez, Lopez), 5 LHB (Pauley, Marsee, Stowers, Hicks, Caissie).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury updates incorporated -- this report draws only from the JSON data file. Check team beat feeds before first pitch for late scratches or lineup swaps.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramon Urias | 2 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Ramon Urías (2 PA).
Essentially no history. Urías' 2-PA line is meaningless, and the other eight Cardinals starters (Wetherholt, Herrera, Burleson, Walker, Winn, Pozo, Saggese, Scott) have never faced Paddack. The lineup is facing him blind -- lean on the platoon, TTO, and K%/BB% profiles in the next sections.
Bench note: Gorman, Fermin, Pages, Church, and the backup catcher room have no recorded BvP vs Paddack either.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agustín Ramírez | 3 | 3 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Edwards | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Otto Lopez | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Graham Pauley | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Stowers | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Slater | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Small sample: Agustín Ramírez (3 PA), Xavier Edwards (3 PA), Otto Lopez (2 PA), Graham Pauley (2 PA), Kyle Stowers (2 PA), Austin Slater (2 PA).
All samples under 10 PA -- none qualify for the danger threshold (AVG >= .400 with 10+ PA). Lopez (2-for-2) and Edwards (1-for-3) are the only two Marlins who have ever gotten a hit off May, and they lead the ground-ball output in the MIA lineup. Noise, not signal.
Bench note: Marsee, Norby, Hernández, Sanoja, Hicks, Caissie, and Jiménez have no recorded BvP vs May.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Victor Scott L | 332 | .221 | .310 | .317 | 5 | 31 | 75 |
| Ivan Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Ramon Urias R | 273 | .233 | .278 | .367 | 7 | 17 | 57 |
| Thomas Saggese R | 227 | .254 | .305 | .340 | 1 | 15 | 63 |
| Yohel Pozo R | 126 | .217 | .254 | .358 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
Cardinals show 6 RHB and 3 LHB tonight against Paddack's right arm. Burleson (.296/.353/.478 vs RHP) is the lineup's one sure thing and slots third. Herrera (.268/.343/.399) gives the top of the order a second real threat. Walker's .200/.263/.291 vs RHP is the sinkhole in the middle -- Paddack's home FB tendencies give Walker a shot at a mistake pitch, but the base rate is against him.
2C-OPP: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards B | 421 | .306 | .368 | .391 | 3 | 35 | 57 |
| Agustín Ramírez R | 419 | .238 | .289 | .432 | 15 | 23 | 70 |
| Otto Lopez R | 403 | .270 | .333 | .413 | 12 | 32 | 52 |
| Kyle Stowers L | 356 | .297 | .377 | .597 | 24 | 39 | 106 |
| Liam Hicks L | 324 | .256 | .349 | .367 | 6 | 35 | 46 |
| Connor Norby R | 236 | .277 | .301 | .429 | 6 | 5 | 63 |
| Javier Sanoja R | 209 | .249 | .288 | .399 | 3 | 12 | 22 |
| Heriberto Hernandez R | 170 | .270 | .347 | .439 | 6 | 16 | 41 |
| Graham Pauley L | 160 | .224 | .300 | .371 | 4 | 16 | 34 |
| Jakob Marsee L | 153 | .274 | .359 | .437 | 2 | 16 | 30 |
| Austin Slater R | 67 | .206 | .242 | .286 | 0 | 3 | 23 |
| Owen Caissie L | 27 | .192 | .222 | .346 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| Leo Jimenez R | 11 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Miami runs 7 RHB and 5 LHB on the active roster, with one switch-hitter (Edwards). Against May's right arm, Stowers (.297/.377/.597, 24 HR in 356 PA) is the top-tier danger -- May's vs-LHB profile (.261/.357/.495, 15 HR/334 PA) lines up badly. Edwards (.306 vs RHP) and Lopez (.270/.333/.413) are the table-setters, and Ramírez (.432 SLG) adds power from the right side.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | vs LHB | 334 | .261 | .357 | .495 | .756 | 15 | 82 |
| Dustin May | vs RHB | 250 | .256 | .325 | .386 | .642 | 6 | 41 |
| Chris Paddack | vs LHB | 345 | .256 | .306 | .492 | .748 | 18 | 54 |
| Chris Paddack | vs RHB | 325 | .281 | .311 | .474 | .755 | 13 | 58 |
May has a clean platoon split -- lefties slug .495 with 15 HR, righties .386 with 6 HR. Miami's 5 LHB (Stowers, Hicks, Pauley, Marsee, Caissie) are the matchup edge against him. Paddack's split is flatter: RHB actually hit him slightly higher (.281/.311/.474) than LHB (.256/.306/.492), though LHB have more HR leverage. Both Cardinals sides have angles; Burleson and Scott from the left, Herrera and Winn from the right.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | Away | 258 | 57.1 | 6.28 | 50 | 26 | 12 |
| Dustin May | Home | 326 | 75.0 | 3.24 | 73 | 30 | 9 |
| Chris Paddack | Away | 374 | 88.2 | 5.58 | 69 | 22 | 22 |
| Chris Paddack | Home | 296 | 69.1 | 4.41 | 43 | 15 | 9 |
Today's game is at loanDepot park -- May pitching away (6.28 ERA career, 12 HR in 57.1 IP), Paddack pitching home (4.41 ERA, 9 HR in 69.1 IP). Each pitcher is in his worse (May) or better (Paddack) venue tonight. If the early innings stay tight, the venue edge tilts to Miami.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | TTO1 | 227 | .226 | .347 | .573 | 5 | 56 | 23 |
| Dustin May | TTO2 | 220 | .290 | .508 | .798 | 9 | 44 | 17 |
| Dustin May | TTO3 | 137 | .263 | .517 | .780 | 7 | 23 | 16 |
| Chris Paddack | TTO1 | 289 | .265 | .493 | .758 | 15 | 55 | 14 |
| Chris Paddack | TTO2 | 266 | .283 | .500 | .783 | 13 | 41 | 12 |
| Chris Paddack | TTO3 | 115 | .243 | .417 | .660 | 3 | 16 | 11 |
May is a classic TTO-degrader: .573 OPS first time through, jumping +.225 to .798 by TTO2 and holding near .780 at TTO3. Innings 4-6 are where he breaks. Paddack's curve is the opposite shape -- worst TTO2 (.783), then a cliff in TTO3 (.660 OPS in 115 PA). If the Marlins stretch Paddack into a third pass, the Cardinals get their best swings late.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Ryan Fernandez | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero (88.5%) is the only Cardinals reliever meaningfully above league average in a real sample. Svanson and Fernandez at 50.0% and Graceffo at 54.5% are all below -- if May hands off with traffic, getting Romero into that inning is the difference between holding and leaking. Svanson walked 2 batters yesterday in 1.1 clean innings, so command is also in play.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | 372 | 44.1% | 28.2% | 26.6% |
| Chris Paddack | 487 | 38.6% | 34.3% | 25.5% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- MIA
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Caissie | .000 | .500 | .250 |
| Xavier Edwards | .290 | .560 | .126 |
| Heriberto Hernandez | .325 | .725 | .077 |
| Liam Hicks | .183 | .532 | .171 |
| Leo Jimenez | .100 | .000 | .000 |
| Otto Lopez | .227 | .542 | .079 |
| Jakob Marsee | .278 | .683 | .186 |
| Connor Norby | .218 | .714 | .157 |
| Graham Pauley | .224 | .607 | .091 |
| Agustín Ramírez | .176 | .598 | .093 |
| Javier Sanoja | .287 | .443 | .045 |
| Austin Slater | .156 | .667 | .136 |
| Kyle Stowers | .271 | .696 | .178 |
May is a moderate ground-ball arm (44.1% GB career) facing a Miami lineup that hits grounders heavily -- Lopez 50.4% GB, Ramírez 49.4%, Slater 49.5%, Edwards 47.9%. That's the engine of May's outs when it works. The danger: Stowers hits fly balls well (.178 FB AVG, 24 HR vs RHP) and his LD AVG (.696) is the lineup-topping line-drive bat. One hanging slider in a Stowers AB flips the script.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
Career catcher pairings shown below reflect May's time with the Dodgers. Herrera (tonight's catcher) has 0 prior IP paired with May and does not appear in the table.
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Smith | 11 | 56.0 | 4.98 | .255 | -- | -- |
| Dalton Rushing | 6 | 34.2 | 3.89 | .227 | -- | -- |
| Carlos Narváez | 4 | 21.0 | 4.71 | .299 | -- | -- |
| Austin Barnes | 2 | 12.1 | 4.38 | .250 | -- | -- |
| Connor Wong | 2 | 5.1 | 6.75 | .348 | -- | -- |
The catchers shown above are from May's Dodgers tenure -- Rushing (3.89 ERA, 34.2 IP) and Smith (4.98, 56.0) were his strongest pairings there. Tonight's catcher is Ivan Herrera, who has 0 career IP with May in this dataset -- a fresh battery. That's a signal in itself: look for early mistake-call sequences in the first pass through the order.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Xavier Edwards (MIA): 27 SB / 7 CS career -- 79.4% success rate. Top base-stealer on either side.
Agustín Ramírez (MIA): 16 SB / 3 CS -- 84.2%. Unusual speed for a catcher.
Otto Lopez (MIA): 15 SB / 6 CS -- 71.4%. Mid-tier threat.
Jakob Marsee (MIA): 14 SB / 6 CS -- 70.0%. Active threat from the outfield.
Connor Norby (MIA): 8 SB / 2 CS -- 80.0%.
Kyle Stowers (MIA): 5 SB / 1 CS -- 83.3%.
Javier Sanoja (MIA): 6 SB / 5 CS -- 54.5%. Runs but gets caught.
Liam Hicks, Graham Pauley, Austin Slater (MIA): 100.0% success on small samples (2, 2, and 1 SB respectively).
Heriberto Hernández (MIA): 1 SB / 1 CS -- 50.0%.
Takeaway: Miami runs. Edwards, Ramírez, and Lopez as the top-three combine for 58 SB at a 77%+ clip. Herrera/May pop-time management is a full-game theme.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Scott | CF | 136 | 3 | 6 | 0.982 |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Ramon Urias | 3B | 78 | 20 | 4 | 0.979 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Yohel Pozo | C | 46 | 0 | 5 | 0.982 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2B | 35 | 24 | 4 | 0.973 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Thomas Saggese | SS | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0.988 |
| Ramon Urias | 2B | 26 | 7 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 3B | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0.939 |
| Ivan Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Victor Scott | RF | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Yohel Pozo | 1B | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Victor Scott | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ramon Urias | 1B | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Winn at SS (0.994, 64 DP) is the anchor -- a plus defender behind a GB-leaning May. Scott in CF (136 G, 0.982) handles the ground at loanDepot. Walker (RF) and Saggese (LF tonight) are average or below at the corners -- Miami's LD-heavy line (Stowers .696 LD AVG, Marsee .683) will test them on flares and doubles.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-head through 2022-2025: Cardinals 14-11 across the last four seasons (2025: 3-3, 2024: 3-3, 2023: 4-3, 2022: 4-2). An even series in most years. loanDepot park plays as a pitcher-leaning venue historically; no park-factor number is in the JSON, so no number is cited.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Victor Scott | 463 | 111 | 24.0% | 42 | 9.1% |
| Ivan Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Ramon Urias | 391 | 88 | 22.5% | 27 | 6.9% |
| Thomas Saggese | 295 | 83 | 28.1% | 16 | 5.4% |
| Yohel Pozo | 168 | 22 | 13.1% | 7 | 4.2% |
Walker (31.8% K) and Saggese (28.1% K) are both above the 25% high threshold -- strikeout exposure in the 4-8 slots. Burleson (14.5%) and Pozo (13.1%) are the contact anchors. Saggese's 5.4% BB and Pozo's 4.2% BB are both below the 6% low threshold -- don't expect free passes from either.
Marlins
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards | 619 | 88 | 14.2% | 49 | 7.9% |
| Otto Lopez | 594 | 82 | 13.8% | 44 | 7.4% |
| Agustín Ramírez | 585 | 113 | 19.3% | 36 | 6.2% |
| Kyle Stowers | 457 | 125 | 27.4% | 48 | 10.5% |
| Liam Hicks | 390 | 56 | 14.4% | 43 | 11.0% |
| Javier Sanoja | 342 | 41 | 12.0% | 19 | 5.6% |
| Connor Norby | 337 | 90 | 26.7% | 18 | 5.3% |
| Heriberto Hernandez | 294 | 77 | 26.2% | 31 | 10.5% |
| Jakob Marsee | 234 | 48 | 20.5% | 22 | 9.4% |
| Graham Pauley | 184 | 36 | 19.6% | 21 | 11.4% |
| Austin Slater | 160 | 51 | 31.9% | 11 | 6.9% |
| Leo Jimenez | 32 | 8 | 25.0% | 2 | 6.3% |
| Owen Caissie | 27 | 11 | 40.7% | 1 | 3.7% |
Miami has more contact at the top (Edwards 14.2% K, Lopez 13.8%, Sanoja 12.0%) and more swing-and-miss among the depth pieces (Stowers 27.4%, Norby 26.7%, Hernández 26.2%, Slater 31.9%, Caissie 40.7%). May's 21.1% K% can punish the tail if he reaches it. The top-third is the contact group that must be navigated with stuff, not misses.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Victor Scott | 259 | 40.2% | 32.0% | 27.8% |
| Ramon Urias | 253 | 45.1% | 29.2% | 25.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Thomas Saggese | 189 | 41.8% | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| Yohel Pozo | 133 | 40.6% | 33.1% | 26.3% |
Cardinals batted-ball shape vs Paddack's 34.3% FB / 38.6% GB profile: Burleson, Winn, Scott, and Pozo are all in the 33-34% FB range -- their contact meets Paddack's fly-ball tendency, which is how his 4 HR already get surrendered. Herrera's 52.6% GB may not unlock the power today.
Marlins
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards | 453 | 47.9% | 24.5% | 27.6% |
| Otto Lopez | 446 | 50.4% | 25.6% | 24.0% |
| Agustín Ramírez | 403 | 49.4% | 26.6% | 24.1% |
| Liam Hicks | 269 | 44.6% | 26.0% | 29.4% |
| Javier Sanoja | 258 | 47.3% | 25.6% | 27.1% |
| Kyle Stowers | 249 | 43.0% | 29.3% | 27.7% |
| Connor Norby | 213 | 40.8% | 32.9% | 26.3% |
| Heriberto Hernandez | 169 | 45.6% | 30.8% | 23.7% |
| Jakob Marsee | 156 | 46.2% | 27.6% | 26.3% |
| Graham Pauley | 121 | 40.5% | 36.4% | 23.1% |
| Austin Slater | 91 | 49.5% | 24.2% | 26.4% |
| Leo Jimenez | 20 | 50.0% | 30.0% | 20.0% |
| Owen Caissie | 14 | 28.6% | 28.6% | 42.9% |
Miami is ground-ball heavy across the top (Lopez 50.4%, Ramírez 49.4%, Slater 49.5%, Edwards 47.9%), which fits the shape May wants -- his 44.1% GB profile is designed to collect these outs. Stowers (43.0% GB / 29.3% FB / 27.7% LD) is the one who hits the air effectively. Hicks' 29.4% LD is the lineup's highest line-drive signal, a secondary threat.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paddack | 158.0 | 112 | 16.7% | 37 | 5.5% | 3.03 |
| Dustin May | 132.1 | 123 | 21.1% | 56 | 9.6% | 2.20 |
Paddack's K/BB (3.03) is the command edge -- he misses fewer bats (16.7% K%) but walks almost no one (5.5% BB%). May has the better strikeout rate (21.1%) but nearly doubles Paddack's walk rate (9.6%) -- his free passes are the self-inflicted escape hatch for the Miami lineup.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Otto Lopez vs Dustin May. 2-for-2 career (tiny sample) plus .270/.333/.413 vs RHP across 403 PA with 12 HR and 50.4% GB (Section 2M). Scored 2 runs yesterday. First Marlin May has to solve.
Alec Burleson vs Chris Paddack. No BvP on record, but Burleson is .296/.353/.478 vs RHP in 419 PA (Section 2C) and Paddack has allowed 18 HR to LHB in 345 PA (Section 2D). Third in the order.
Kyle Stowers vs May. .297/.377/.597 vs RHP, 24 HR in 356 PA (Section 2C). May's vs-LHB line (.495 SLG, 15 HR) is the matchup that fits Stowers' profile worst for St. Louis.
May's TTO window. .573 OPS TTO1 -> .798 TTO2 (Section 2E). Innings 4-6 are the danger zone.
Edwards on the bases. 27 SB / 7 CS career, 79.4% (Section 2I). Herrera-May battery is brand new (Section 2H) -- pop-time risk.
Bullpen fork. Romero 88.5% strand vs Svanson 50.0% and Fernandez 50.0% (Section 2F). Middle-inning handoff decides tight games.
X-factor: Paddack's TTO3 cliff (.660 OPS, Section 2E). If the Cardinals force a third pass, they steal the game late.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Dustin May performed in his most recent start vs LHB?
2. What is the Cardinals' record in road series openers this season?
3. Show me Chris Paddack's pitch mix vs Burleson or other LHB tonight.
4. What is Otto Lopez's career split vs RHB with 2 strikes?
5. How often does Xavier Edwards attempt a steal when leading off an inning?
6. Show me JoJo Romero's usage over the last 7 days.
7. What is Kyle Stowers' career SLG vs fastballs 95+ mph?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025