NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

Team	W-L	GB	Strk
Reds	13-8	-	W2
Cardinals	12-8	0.5	W4
Brewers	12-8	0.5	W4
Pirates	12-9	1.0	L1
Cubs	11-9	1.5	W4

AL WEST STANDINGS

Team	W-L	GB	Strk
Rangers	11-10	-	L1
Athletics	11-10	-	W1
Angels	11-11	0.5	L1
Mariners	9-13	2.5	W1
Astros	8-14	3.5	L3

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

Date	Opp	H/A	Result
Apr 18	HOU	Away	W 7-5
Apr 17	HOU	Away	W 9-4
Apr 15	CLE	Home	W 5-3
Apr 14	CLE	Home	W 6-5 (10)
Apr 13	CLE	Home	L 3-9
Apr 12	BOS	Home	L 3-9
Apr 11	BOS	Home	L 1-7
Apr 10	BOS	Home	W 3-2
Apr 8	WSH	Away	W 6-1
Apr 7	WSH	Away	W 7-6 (10)

STARTING PITCHERS

Matthew Liberatore (L) -- STL

2026 line: 0-1, 4.29 ERA, 21.0 IP across 4 starts. 12 K / 8 BB, 1.57 WHIP. 5 HR allowed, 40.8% GB rate. K% 12.8%, BB% 8.5%. He has been hittable early -- 25 H in 21.0 IP -- but kept the runs in check.

Mike Burrows (R) -- HOU

2026 line: 1-3, 6.55 ERA, 22.0 IP across 4 starts. 18 K / 7 BB, 1.82 WHIP. 5 HR allowed, 40.9% GB rate. K% 17.5%, BB% 6.8%. The K-to-BB ratio (career 3.13) is healthy, but the contact he allows is loud -- 33 H and 5 HR in 22 IP.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-04-18)

#	Player	Pos	Bats	2026 RISP AVG	2026 RISP OPS
1	Wetherholt	2B	L	.200	.631
2	Herrera	C	R	.235	.834
3	Burleson	1B	L	.360	.934
4	Walker	RF	R	.227	.870
5	Urías	3B	R	.000	.125
6	Winn	SS	R	.100	.350
7	Pozo	DH	R	.250	.625
8	Saggese	LF	R	.214	.553
9	Scott	CF	L	.133	.309

Handedness: 6 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Urías, Winn, Pozo, Saggese), 3 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Scott).

Astros (From active roster)

13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

Player	Pos	Bats
Matthews	SS	R
Smith	RF	R
Correa	SS	R
Vázquez	C	R
Walker	1B	R
Paredes	3B	R
Loperfido	LF	L
Altuve	LF	R
Allen	SS	R
Whitcomb	LF	R
Trammell	LF	L
Diaz	C	R
Alvarez	LF	L

Handedness: 10 RHB (Matthews, Smith, Correa, Vázquez, Walker, Paredes, Altuve, Allen, Whitcomb, Diaz), 3 LHB (Loperfido, Trammell, Alvarez).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury web search performed for this run. Lineup uncertainty for HOU comes from the roster_only source -- the actual batting order will be confirmed near first pitch. Cardinals' projection is carried from yesterday's lineup; expect minor adjustments based on McCullers (RHP) yesterday vs Burrows (RHP) today.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

No data available for this section.

Burrows is essentially unfamiliar to the Cardinals lineup -- zero career BvP rows. The lineup attacks him blind. Bench note: No bench BvP history exists either.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Player	PA	AB	H	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
Isaac Paredes	4	4	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0
Nick Allen	5	3	1	.333	.500	.333	0	1	1
Carlos Correa	3	3	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0
Joey Loperfido	1	1	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0
Yordan Alvarez	1	1	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0

Small sample: Isaac Paredes (4 PA), Nick Allen (5 PA), Carlos Correa (3 PA), Joey Loperfido (1 PA), Yordan Alvarez (1 PA).

All five samples are below the small-sample threshold. Allen's 1-for-3 with a walk is the only non-zero line; it's noise. Liberatore is essentially facing this Astros lineup with a clean slate -- the platoon and TTO data below carry the real signal.

Bench note: No significant additional BvP history.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
Alec Burleson L	419	.296	.353	.478	15	32	59
Masyn Winn R	374	.251	.309	.368	7	23	71
Victor Scott L	332	.221	.310	.317	5	31	75
Ivan Herrera R	328	.268	.343	.399	10	24	66
Jordan Walker R	289	.200	.263	.291	4	21	94
Ramon Urias R	273	.233	.278	.367	7	17	57
Thomas Saggese R	227	.254	.305	.340	1	15	63
Yohel Pozo R	126	.217	.254	.358	4	6	16

Cardinals roll out a 6-RHB / 3-LHB lineup vs RHP Burrows. Burleson (.296 / .353 / .478 vs RHP, 15 HR in 419 PA) is the clear edge -- the L-on-R matchup theoretically favors him, but Burrows actually limits LHB to .225 / .566 OPS, so the leverage is in Burleson's contact, not platoon. Walker's .200 / .263 vs RHP is the worst line in the order; today he hits cleanup against a vulnerable RHP.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
Carlos Correa R	140	.272	.350	.440	5	15	25
Cam Smith R	137	.261	.365	.452	4	17	38
Christian Walker R	133	.248	.301	.397	4	8	35
Jose Altuve R	124	.261	.331	.468	7	12	28
Yainer Diaz R	120	.257	.292	.434	6	6	25
Nick Allen R	112	.216	.300	.237	0	12	20
Isaac Paredes R	71	.200	.324	.367	3	9	9
Christian Vazquez R	60	.118	.250	.137	0	8	12
Yordan Alvarez L	38	.344	.447	.656	2	6	4
Joey Loperfido L	23	.350	.409	.350	0	1	4
Taylor Trammell L	16	.308	.438	.385	0	3	5
Brice Matthews R	11	.000	.091	.000	0	1	6
Shay Whitcomb R	10	.100	.100	.400	1	0	1

HOU lineup vs LHP is structurally strong at the top. Correa (.272 / .350 / .440), Smith (.261 / .365 / .452), Walker (.248 / .301 / .397), Altuve (.261 / .331 / .468 with 7 HR), and Diaz (.257 / .292 / .434 with 6 HR) all hit Liberatore-handedness pitching well. The dangerous outlier is Alvarez -- a LHB who is .344 / .447 / .656 against LHP. Vazquez (.118 / .250) is the platoon sink they should be benching against a lefty.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Pitcher	vs	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	K
Mike Burrows	vs LHB	198	.225	.308	.341	.566	5	46
Mike Burrows	vs RHB	204	.259	.309	.439	.698	8	51
Matthew Liberatore	vs RHB	515	.265	.304	.426	.691	16	93
Matthew Liberatore	vs LHB	133	.274	.348	.410	.684	3	29

Burrows is reverse-platoon: better vs LHB (.566 OPS) than RHB (.698 OPS, 8 HR in 204 PA). The Cardinals' 6-RHB lineup tilts the matchup toward STL on paper. Liberatore is essentially neutral by OPS (.684 vs L, .691 vs R) -- but his vs-LHB OBP is .348, a discipline gap that becomes critical with Alvarez waiting.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Pitcher	Split	BF	IP	ERA	K	BB	HR
Mike Burrows	Away	177	40.2	3.54	43	15	3
Mike Burrows	Home	225	55.1	3.74	54	16	10
Matthew Liberatore	Away	334	76.0	4.03	59	26	11
Matthew Liberatore	Home	314	75.2	3.69	63	14	8

Today's game is at Daikin Park (HOU home). Burrows pitching at home (3.74 ERA, 10 HR allowed -- noticeably more longballs than his road profile of 3 HR in 40.2 IP). Liberatore pitching away (4.03 ERA, 11 HR in 76.0 IP) -- his weaker split. Both pitchers are in their less-favorable venue. Edge: longballs from both sides are more probable than the season totals suggest.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Pitcher	TTO	PA	AVG	SLG	OPS	HR	K	BB
Mike Burrows	TTO1	204	.215	.349	.564	7	55	12
Mike Burrows	TTO2	163	.274	.425	.699	4	35	15
Mike Burrows	TTO3	35	.267	.500	.767	2	7	4
Matthew Liberatore	TTO1	264	.237	.376	.613	8	56	15
Matthew Liberatore	TTO2	252	.310	.511	.821	9	40	17
Matthew Liberatore	TTO3	132	.244	.353	.597	2	26	8

Burrows TTO ladder: .564 OPS (TTO1) -> .699 (TTO2) -> .767 (TTO3). His effectiveness erodes steeply on each pass -- if STL doesn't get to him in the first six hitters, the second look should be the breakthrough.

Liberatore TTO ladder: .613 (TTO1) -> .821 (TTO2) -> .597 (TTO3). The TTO2 spike (+.208 OPS) is the danger zone -- he stabilizes at TTO3, but innings 4-6 are when the wheels historically come off. Marmol's hook should be early on the second loop.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

Reliever	IR	Scored	Strand%
Kyle Leahy	29	11	62.1%
JoJo Romero	26	3	88.5%
Matt Svanson	26	13	50.0%
Gordon Graceffo	11	5	54.5%
Riley O'Brien	10	3	70.0%
Ryan Fernandez	8	4	50.0%
Michael McGreevy	3	0	100.0%

League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero (88.5%) is the elite arm to use with traffic; McGreevy small-sample (3 IR) is perfect. The danger trio is Svanson (50.0%), Graceffo (54.5%), and Fernandez (50.0%) -- all below league average. Yesterday Soriano (not on this list) gave up 3 ER in 0.1 IP after entering with traffic. Leverage discipline matters today.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

Pitcher	BIP	GB%	FB%	LD%
Mike Burrows	256	43.0%	29.3%	27.7%
Matthew Liberatore	463	39.1%	31.3%	27.6%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- HOU

Hitter	GB AVG	LD AVG	FB AVG
Nick Allen	.250	.600	.095
Jose Altuve	.264	.624	.073
Yordan Alvarez	.277	.629	.091
Carlos Correa	.254	.675	.065
Yainer Diaz	.216	.611	.072
Joey Loperfido	.345	.714	.200
Brice Matthews	.375	.000	.000
Isaac Paredes	.215	.532	.134
Cam Smith	.246	.627	.122
Taylor Trammell	.200	.625	.125
Christian Vazquez	.186	.500	.055
Christian Walker	.277	.591	.105
Shay Whitcomb	.091	.500	.000

Liberatore's profile is fly-ball leaning (39.1% GB, 31.3% FB) against an HOU lineup that includes ground-heavy hitters Diaz (48.7% GB) and Correa (49.9% GB). Alvarez, however, hits everything hard -- his line drive AVG of .629 against any contact-allowing pitcher is the batted-ball result that scares. Burrows' 43.0% GB rate against a Cardinals lineup that hits more grounders than fly balls (Walker 48.9% GB, Herrera 52.6% GB) sets up early-count grounder dominance from the right-handed pocket.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

Catcher	G	IP	ERA	AVG	OBP	SLG
Pedro Pagés	15	75.2	3.93	.279	--	--
Yohel Pozo	12	63.2	4.10	.259	--	--
Jimmy Crooks	2	11.0	2.45	.225	--	--

Today's projected lineup has Herrera at C (per yesterday's projection) and Pozo at DH. The Liberatore-Herrera pairing isn't represented in the historical battery sample -- those splits track Liberatore with Pages, Pozo, and Crooks. Pages (3.93 ERA in 75.2 IP) is the historical primary; Crooks' 2.45 ERA in 11.0 IP is small-sample but the best line on paper. With Herrera receiving instead, expect game-call adjustments rather than pre-mapped pairings.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

HOU baserunning leaders (career, vs Cardinals catcher tier today: Herrera projected):

- Cam Smith: 8 SB, 1 CS, 88.9% success rate -- the live threat. Stole second yesterday (off Pallante / Herrera).

- Jose Altuve: 10 SB, 6 CS, 62.5% success -- volume threat with mediocre efficiency.

- Nick Allen: 8 SB, 7 CS, 53.3% success -- runs but gets gunned down.

- Taylor Trammell: 3 SB, 2 CS, 60.0% success.

- Christian Walker: 2 SB, 1 CS, 66.7% success -- minimal threat from the cleanup spot.

Smith is the only player Herrera should pre-empt with a slide step or pickover sequence.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Player	POS	G	DP	E	Fld%
Victor Scott	CF	136	3	6	0.982
Masyn Winn	SS	129	64	3	0.994
Jordan Walker	RF	108	2	4	0.981
Ramon Urias	3B	78	20	4	0.979
Alec Burleson	1B	50	27	4	0.990
Yohel Pozo	C	46	0	5	0.982
Alec Burleson	LF	41	0	0	1.000
Thomas Saggese	2B	35	24	4	0.973
Alec Burleson	RF	34	1	1	0.983
Thomas Saggese	SS	33	7	1	0.988
Ramon Urias	2B	26	7	0	1.000
Thomas Saggese	3B	18	0	2	0.939
Ivan Herrera	C	14	0	1	0.989
Victor Scott	RF	7	0	0	1.000
Yohel Pozo	1B	6	2	0	1.000
Victor Scott	LF	4	0	0	1.000
Ivan Herrera	LF	4	0	0	1.000
Ramon Urias	1B	3	0	0	1.000
Alec Burleson	P	1	0	0	--

Winn at SS (.994 Fld%, 64 DP in 129 G) is the rangiest infielder in the league for ground-ball pitchers. Yesterday's game-ending 6-3 / 4-3 double play (per scoring plays) underscores the value with Liberatore's career 39.1% GB rate. The middle infield combo (Wetherholt 2B, Winn SS) should suppress HOU's grounder-heavy lineup (Diaz 48.7% GB, Correa 49.9% GB).

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Daikin Park typically plays as a slight hitter's park with high HR factor (LF Crawford Boxes). Recent head-to-head (last three seasons): 2025 STL went 2-1, 2024 went 1-2, 2023 went 1-2 -- a roughly even trade. STL has already taken games one and two of this series 9-4 and 7-5; today completes a potential sweep on the road.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Player	PA	K	K%	BB	BB%
Alec Burleson	544	79	14.5%	39	7.2%
Masyn Winn	537	102	19.0%	34	6.3%
Victor Scott	463	111	24.0%	42	9.1%
Ivan Herrera	450	84	18.7%	43	9.6%
Jordan Walker	396	126	31.8%	29	7.3%
Ramon Urias	391	88	22.5%	27	6.9%
Thomas Saggese	295	83	28.1%	16	5.4%
Yohel Pozo	168	22	13.1%	7	4.2%

Walker's 31.8% K% is the structural concern -- highest in the lineup -- against a pitcher (Burrows) with a 24.1% K% career. That collision argues for the cleanup spot to chase or whiff. Burleson (14.5% K%) and Pozo (13.1% K%) are the contact anchors.

Astros

Player	PA	K	K%	BB	BB%
Jose Altuve	654	109	16.7%	55	8.4%
Christian Walker	640	177	27.7%	40	6.3%
Carlos Correa	584	113	19.3%	45	7.7%
Yainer Diaz	567	95	16.8%	20	3.5%
Cam Smith	493	137	27.8%	43	8.7%
Isaac Paredes	438	76	17.4%	50	11.4%
Nick Allen	416	99	23.8%	31	7.5%
Christian Vazquez	214	35	16.4%	18	8.4%
Yordan Alvarez	199	33	16.6%	28	14.1%
Taylor Trammell	135	41	30.4%	17	12.6%
Joey Loperfido	104	27	26.0%	4	3.8%
Brice Matthews	47	20	42.6%	2	4.3%
Shay Whitcomb	32	10	31.3%	0	0.0%

HOU has whiff risk at the bottom -- Matthews 42.6% K%, Whitcomb 31.3%, Trammell 30.4%, Smith 27.8%. Liberatore's 18.8% career K% is modest, but the swing-and-miss volume of the bottom half should generate at least a couple of free outs. Alvarez's 14.1% BB% is the discipline outlier -- Liberatore must avoid pitching around him into Correa or Diaz.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Player	BIP	GB%	FB%	LD%
Alec Burleson	398	42.0%	33.4%	24.6%
Masyn Winn	376	39.6%	34.0%	26.3%
Ivan Herrera	285	52.6%	21.8%	25.6%
Victor Scott	259	40.2%	32.0%	27.8%
Ramon Urias	253	45.1%	29.2%	25.7%
Jordan Walker	231	48.9%	29.4%	21.6%
Thomas Saggese	189	41.8%	29.6%	28.6%
Yohel Pozo	133	40.6%	33.1%	26.3%

Herrera (52.6% GB) and Walker (48.9% GB) are the ground-heavy bats. Against Burrows' 43.0% GB rate, expect early-count rollovers from the cleanup pocket. The Winn / Burleson / Saggese trio with line drive rates above 26% should challenge Burrows when he leaves something elevated.

Astros

Player	BIP	GB%	FB%	LD%
Jose Altuve	444	45.3%	33.8%	20.9%
Yainer Diaz	427	48.7%	26.0%	25.3%
Carlos Correa	411	49.9%	22.4%	27.7%
Christian Walker	381	40.7%	34.9%	24.4%
Cam Smith	295	46.8%	25.1%	28.1%
Isaac Paredes	282	33.0%	39.7%	27.3%
Nick Allen	268	46.3%	27.6%	26.1%
Christian Vazquez	152	38.8%	36.2%	25.0%
Yordan Alvarez	126	37.3%	34.9%	27.8%
Taylor Trammell	70	42.9%	34.3%	22.9%
Joey Loperfido	65	44.6%	23.1%	32.3%
Shay Whitcomb	21	52.4%	28.6%	19.0%
Brice Matthews	18	44.4%	38.9%	16.7%

Paredes (33.0% GB, 39.7% FB) is the lift threat at Daikin Park -- exactly the profile that punishes Liberatore's fly-ball lean (31.3% FB). Alvarez (37.3% GB, 34.9% FB, 27.8% LD) is the power-on-air profile. Diaz and Correa lean grounder-heavy and should produce double-play opportunities for Winn / Wetherholt.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

Pitcher	IP	K	K%	BB	BB%	K/BB
Matthew Liberatore	151.2	122	18.8%	40	6.2%	3.05
Mike Burrows	96.0	97	24.1%	31	7.7%	3.13

Both pitchers carry strong career K/BB ratios (Liberatore 3.05, Burrows 3.13) -- competent strike-throwers. Burrows misses more bats (24.1% K% vs Liberatore 18.8%) but allows more contact damage when he does get hit. Liberatore's 6.2% BB% is the cleaner number; the question is whether his contact suppression in 2026 returns to career form (.265 / .304 / .426 vs RHB).

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Burleson vs Burrows. Burleson is .296 / .353 / .478 vs RHP across 419 PA (Section 2C) and homered yesterday. Burrows is reverse-platoon (.566 OPS vs LHB, Section 2D) so the platoon isn't the edge -- Burleson's contact rate (14.5% K%, Section 2L) against a pitcher walking 7.7% (Section 2N) is.

Walker / Winn / Urias vs Burrows. Burrows allows .259 / .439 SLG to RHB with 8 HR in 204 PA (Section 2D). The three-RHB pocket (Walker .500 SLG with RISP per Section 1, Winn 7 HR vs RHP per Section 2C, Urias .367 SLG vs RHP) is where the Cardinals attack the right-handed pitcher's reverse-platoon weakness.

Alvarez vs Liberatore. .344 / .447 / .656 in 38 career PA vs LHP (Section 2C). He homered off Pallante in the first inning yesterday. Liberatore's vs-LHB OBP is .348 (Section 2D) -- the bigger danger isn't a single Alvarez homer but the walks that bring him up with traffic.

Bullpen X-factor. Romero strand rate 88.5% vs Svanson / Graceffo / Fernandez all at 50-55% (Section 2F). Yesterday Soriano gave up a 3-run HR in 0.1 IP. With Liberatore's TTO2 vulnerability, the bullpen call in innings 5-6 may decide the game.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

- "Mike Burrows splits by inning 2024-2025"

- "Yordan Alvarez vs lefties last 3 seasons"

- "Matthew Liberatore TTO2 splits 2025"

- "Cardinals batters vs Astros bullpen 2024-2025"

- "JoJo Romero inherited runners 2025"

- "Cam Smith stolen base attempts vs lefty starters"