NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | 10-7 | - | L1 |
| Reds | 10-7 | - | W1 |
| Cardinals | 9-8 | 1.0 | W1 |
| Brewers | 8-8 | 1.5 | L6 |
| Cubs | 8-9 | 2.0 | W1 |
AL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | 11-7 | - | W4 |
| Guardians | 10-8 | 1.0 | L1 |
| Tigers | 8-9 | 2.5 | W4 |
| Royals | 7-10 | 3.5 | L2 |
| Sox | 6-11 | 4.5 | L1 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | CLE | Home | W 6-5 (10) |
| Apr 13 | CLE | Home | L 3-9 |
| Apr 12 | BOS | Home | L 3-9 |
| Apr 11 | BOS | Home | L 1-7 |
| Apr 10 | BOS | Home | W 3-2 |
| Apr 8 | WSH | Away | W 6-1 |
| Apr 7 | WSH | Away | W 7-6 (10) |
| Apr 6 | WSH | Away | L 6-9 |
| Apr 5 | DET | Away | W 5-3 |
| Apr 4 | DET | Away | L 6-11 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Slade Cecconi (RHP, Cleveland): 0-2, 5.74 ERA, 15.2 IP, 1.21 WHIP through 3 starts. 14 K, 5 BB (20.6% K%, 7.4% BB%). Ground-ball machine early in 2026: 59.4% GB%. In his second year with Cleveland after the Josh Naylor trade from Arizona. Revamped pitch mix with a harder cutter and added sweeper.
Dustin May (RHP, St. Louis): 1-2, 9.45 ERA, 13.1 IP, 1.80 WHIP through 3 starts. 11 K, 3 BB (17.5% K%, 4.8% BB%). Signed a 1-year/$12.5M deal after two major elbow surgeries. Struggled badly in first two starts but showed improvement in his last outing. The 46.2% GB% is above his career norms (44.1%).
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-04-14)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .231 | .661 |
| 2 | Herrera | C | R | .214 | .812 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .400 | 1.035 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .235 | .938 |
| 5 | Urías | 3B | R | .000 | .200 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .067 | .330 |
| 7 | Pozo | DH | R | .250 | .625 |
| 8 | Saggese | LF | R | .214 | .553 |
| 9 | Scott | CF | L | .182 | .349 |
Handedness: 6 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Urías, Winn, Pozo, Saggese), 3 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Scott).
Guardians (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Martínez | CF | S |
| Hedges | C | R |
| Naylor | C | L |
| Rocchio | SS | S |
| DeLauter | RF | L |
| Schneemann | 2B | L |
| Fry | 1B | R |
| Valera | RF | L |
| Ramírez | 3B | S |
| Brito | SS | S |
| Manzardo | 1B | L |
| Hoskins | 1B | R |
| Kwan | LF | L |
Handedness: 3 RHB (Hedges, Fry, Hoskins), 6 LHB (Naylor, DeLauter, Schneemann, Valera, Manzardo, Kwan).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
Cardinals IL: Lars Nootbaar (OF, 60-day IL, heel surgery, no timetable). Hunter Dobbins (RHP, torn right ACL, rehabbing at Memphis). Matt Pushard (RHP, 15-day IL, right knee patellar tendinitis).
Cardinals moves: DFA'd LHP Jared Shuster (Apr 13). Recalled RHP Ryan Fernandez from Memphis (Apr 13).
Guardians IL: Gabriel Arias (SS, 10-day IL, left hamstring strain, 4-8 weeks). Key loss at short -- Juan Brito recalled as replacement, committed the pivotal error in Game 2.
Guardians moves: Activated RHP Hunter Gaddis and OF George Valera from IL (Apr 13). DFA'd LHP Kolby Allard. Optioned 1B/OF CJ Kayfus.
Note: Jackie Robinson Day -- all players wear #42.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Masyn Winn | 3 | 3 | 2 | .667 | .667 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ramon Urias | 4 | 3 | 2 | .667 | .750 | 1.000 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Yohel Pozo | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Victor Scott | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Alec Burleson (3 PA), Masyn Winn (3 PA), Ramon Urias (4 PA), Yohel Pozo (2 PA), Victor Scott (2 PA).
All samples are tiny (2-4 PA). Urias (.667, 4 PA) and Winn (.667, 3 PA) have the best numbers but statistically meaningless at this sample size. Wetherholt, Herrera, Walker, and Saggese have no career data against Cecconi. The Cardinals are largely facing Cecconi blind.
Bench note: Gorman has no BvP data against Cecconi. No significant bench BvP history.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Naylor | 4 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .250 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kyle Manzardo | 4 | 4 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jose Ramirez | 4 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .500 | .333 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Angel Martínez | 4 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .500 | .333 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Steven Kwan | 4 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .500 | .333 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Schneemann | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | 2.000 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Brayan Rocchio | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Austin Hedges | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| George Valera | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Bo Naylor (4 PA), Kyle Manzardo (4 PA), Jose Ramirez (4 PA), Angel Martínez (4 PA), Steven Kwan (4 PA), Daniel Schneemann (2 PA), Brayan Rocchio (1 PA), Austin Hedges (2 PA), George Valera (1 PA).
Small samples across the board (1-4 PA). Hedges is 1-for-1 with a HR (2 PA) and Valera 1-for-1 (1 PA) -- eye-catching but single-game flashes. Schneemann is 1-for-2 with a HR. Manzardo stands out negatively: 0-for-4 with 2 K. Ramirez is 1-for-3 with a walk (.333/.500 OBP) -- the most actionable sample given his stature.
Bench note: Hoskins has no BvP data against May. No significant bench BvP history.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Victor Scott L | 332 | .221 | .310 | .317 | 5 | 31 | 75 |
| Ivan Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Ramon Urias R | 273 | .233 | .278 | .367 | 7 | 17 | 57 |
| Thomas Saggese R | 227 | .254 | .305 | .340 | 1 | 15 | 63 |
| Yohel Pozo R | 126 | .217 | .254 | .358 | 4 | 6 | 16 |
Against RHP, Burleson is the standout: .296/.353/.478 in 419 PA. Herrera (.268/.343/.399) provides solid production. Walker continues to struggle vs RHP (.200/.263/.291, 94 K in 289 PA) -- the 32.5% K rate against righties is a liability. Pozo (.217/.254/.358 in 126 PA) shows limited on-base ability. The 6 RHB / 3 LHB split means the Cardinals are largely going same-side against Cecconi's weaker platoon split (.271 AVG vs RHB).
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez B | 486 | .268 | .354 | .496 | 24 | 51 | 57 |
| Steven Kwan L | 478 | .285 | .345 | .422 | 11 | 40 | 40 |
| Kyle Manzardo L | 442 | .242 | .324 | .458 | 22 | 42 | 111 |
| Daniel Schneemann L | 363 | .216 | .287 | .386 | 12 | 31 | 96 |
| Bo Naylor L | 334 | .198 | .289 | .403 | 12 | 38 | 87 |
| Angel Martínez B | 315 | .197 | .227 | .318 | 6 | 10 | 76 |
| Brayan Rocchio B | 272 | .239 | .284 | .351 | 4 | 14 | 45 |
| Rhys Hoskins R | 226 | .244 | .336 | .420 | 8 | 24 | 64 |
| Austin Hedges R | 91 | .154 | .239 | .282 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| George Valera L | 50 | .256 | .360 | .535 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| David Fry R | 37 | .152 | .243 | .333 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| Chase DeLauter L | 5 | .250 | .400 | .250 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Cleveland's roster pool is loaded with left-side hitters against the right-handed May. Ramirez (.268/.354/.496, 24 HR in 486 PA) is the premier threat from the left side. Kwan (.285/.345/.422) provides consistent contact. Manzardo (.242/.324/.458, 22 HR) brings power but strikes out heavily (25.4% K%). Schneemann (.216/.287/.386) and Naylor (.198/.289/.403) are boom-or-bust types with high K rates. The 3 RHB (Hedges .154, Fry .152, Hoskins .244) are the weakest group. Expect Cleveland to stack left-side hitters against May.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slade Cecconi | vs LHB | 279 | .222 | .276 | .428 | .650 | 13 | 62 |
| Slade Cecconi | vs RHB | 276 | .271 | .313 | .465 | .736 | 11 | 50 |
| Dustin May | vs LHB | 334 | .261 | .357 | .495 | .756 | 15 | 82 |
| Dustin May | vs RHB | 250 | .256 | .325 | .386 | .642 | 6 | 41 |
Both pitchers are RHP, creating asymmetric platoon dynamics. Cecconi is tougher on LHB (.222/.276/.428, .650 OPS) than RHB (.271/.313/.465, .736 OPS) -- an 86-point OPS gap. May shows the opposite: more vulnerable to LHB (.261/.357/.495, .756 OPS) than RHB (.256/.325/.386, .642 OPS) -- a 114-point OPS gap. The Cardinals' 6 RHB attack Cecconi's weaker side. Cleveland's deep left-side pool attacks May's weaker side. Both lineups are positioned to exploit the opposing pitcher's platoon vulnerability.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slade Cecconi | Away | 257 | 62.4 | 3.47 | 64 | 13 | 10 |
| Slade Cecconi | Home | 298 | 72.0 | 4.38 | 48 | 20 | 14 |
| Dustin May | Away | 258 | 57.4 | 6.28 | 50 | 26 | 12 |
| Dustin May | Home | 326 | 75.0 | 3.24 | 73 | 30 | 9 |
Today's game is at Busch Stadium. May pitching at home: 3.24 ERA vs 6.28 ERA away. That is a massive home advantage -- nearly half the run production. Cecconi pitching away: 3.47 ERA vs 4.38 ERA at home. Cecconi is actually better on the road. May's home comfort is one of the Cardinals' biggest edges today.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slade Cecconi | TTO1 | 216 | .225 | .350 | .575 | 4 | 53 | 13 |
| Slade Cecconi | TTO2 | 208 | .271 | .495 | .766 | 12 | 40 | 13 |
| Slade Cecconi | TTO3 | 131 | .244 | .528 | .772 | 8 | 19 | 7 |
| Dustin May | TTO1 | 227 | .226 | .347 | .573 | 5 | 56 | 23 |
| Dustin May | TTO2 | 220 | .290 | .508 | .798 | 9 | 44 | 17 |
| Dustin May | TTO3 | 137 | .263 | .517 | .780 | 7 | 23 | 16 |
Both pitchers show classic TTO2 vulnerability. May: TTO1 .226/.305/.347 (.573 OPS) to TTO2 .290/.370/.508 (.798 OPS) -- a massive +.225 OPS jump. His TTO3 (.780 OPS) stays elevated. The innings 4-6 window is where May historically gets hit hard.
Cecconi: TTO1 .225/.282/.350 (.575 OPS) to TTO2 .271/.314/.495 (.766 OPS), with TTO3 (.772 OPS) similar. Cecconi's power surge comes TTO2-3 (SLG jumps from .350 to .495 to .528). Both starters face their biggest risk in the second time through the order. Watch innings 4-6 closely.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Ryan Fernandez | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
Romero stands out: 88.5% strand rate (26 IR, 3 scored) across 17 entries -- elite fireman work well above the league average strand rate of ~68-72%. Svanson (50.0%) and Fernandez (50.0%) are liabilities with inherited runners. Leahy (62.1%, 29 IR) is below average. O'Brien (70.0%) is roughly league average. If the Cardinals need a high-leverage relief appearance with runners on, Romero is the clear choice.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slade Cecconi | 383 | 43.9% | 29.8% | 25.3% |
| Dustin May | 372 | 44.1% | 28.2% | 26.6% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- CLE
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chase DeLauter | .250 | .000 | -- |
| David Fry | .167 | .688 | .000 |
| Austin Hedges | .091 | .667 | .020 |
| Rhys Hoskins | .293 | .646 | .086 |
| Steven Kwan | .243 | .557 | .059 |
| Kyle Manzardo | .187 | .634 | .087 |
| Angel Martínez | .252 | .641 | .051 |
| Bo Naylor | .145 | .574 | .076 |
| Jose Ramirez | .237 | .674 | .058 |
| Brayan Rocchio | .200 | .611 | .086 |
| Daniel Schneemann | .234 | .574 | .097 |
| George Valera | .125 | .625 | .167 |
Both starters have similar career GB profiles: Cecconi 43.9% GB, May 44.1% GB. But Cecconi's 2026 GB rate has spiked to 59.4% -- suggesting a pitch mix change emphasizing ground balls. On the hitting side, Cleveland's fly-ball hitters (Naylor 42.2% FB, Manzardo 40.0% FB, Hoskins 39.8% FB) can elevate against May's sinker-heavy approach. Schneemann (49.6% GB) and Rocchio (45.8% GB) play into May's ground-ball game. For STL, Herrera (52.6% GB) and Walker (48.9% GB) are the most ground-ball prone -- against Cecconi's heavy 2026 GB rate, expect early-count grounders from those two.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Smith | 11 | 56.0 | 4.98 | .255 | -- | -- |
| Dalton Rushing | 6 | 34.7 | 3.89 | .227 | -- | -- |
| Carlos Narváez | 4 | 21.0 | 4.71 | .299 | -- | -- |
| Austin Barnes | 2 | 12.3 | 4.38 | .250 | -- | -- |
| Connor Wong | 2 | 5.3 | 6.75 | .348 | -- | -- |
May's career battery data is exclusively from his Dodgers tenure: 11 games with Will Smith (4.98 ERA), 6 with Dalton Rushing (3.89 ERA), 4 with Carlos Narvaez (4.71 ERA). He has zero games with Herrera, who is projected to catch today. This is a new pitcher-catcher dynamic -- expect some early-inning calibration as Herrera learns May's sequencing and secondary stuff.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Cleveland baserunning threats:
Ramirez: 44 SB, 7 CS (86.3% success) in 2025. Elite speed and instincts. The primary stolen base threat against a new battery pairing (May-Herrera).
Kwan: 21 SB, 5 CS (80.8%). Secondary speed threat who picks his spots.
Schneemann: 9 SB, 3 CS (75.0%). Willing runner.
Martinez: 8 SB, 2 CS (80.0%). Another speed element in the outfield.
Rocchio: 8 SB, 4 CS (66.7%). Below-average efficiency.
Cardinals context: Herrera catching his first game behind May. The unfamiliar battery pairing could create running opportunities for Cleveland's speed-heavy roster.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Scott | CF | 136 | 3 | 6 | .982 |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | .994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | .981 |
| Ramon Urias | 3B | 78 | 20 | 4 | .979 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | .990 |
| Yohel Pozo | C | 46 | 0 | 5 | .982 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2B | 35 | 24 | 4 | .973 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | .983 |
| Thomas Saggese | SS | 33 | 7 | 1 | .988 |
| Ramon Urias | 2B | 26 | 7 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 3B | 18 | 0 | 2 | .939 |
| Ivan Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | .989 |
| Victor Scott | RF | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Yohel Pozo | 1B | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Victor Scott | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ramon Urias | 1B | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Winn at SS (.994 FLD%, 64 DP, 3 E in 129 G) is elite. Scott in CF (.982, 136 G) covers ground. Walker in RF (.981, 108 G, 4 E) is capable but has had occasional lapses. Saggese in LF (primarily a middle infielder -- .973 FLD% at 2B, .939 at 3B) is the defensive question mark today. Burleson at 1B (.990, 50 G) is solid. Urias at 3B (.979, 78 G) provides reliability.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Recent head-to-head (regular season): Cardinals lead the recent series 6-3: 3-0 in 2025, 2-1 in 2024, 1-2 in 2023. St. Louis has dominated this interleague matchup lately, winning 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Busch Stadium park factors: Busch remains a pitcher-friendly venue, suppressing home runs approximately 15% below league average (HR factor ~85). Run factor ~96. Both starters benefit from the park's HR suppression. In a matchup between two struggling starters, the park could keep scoring in check.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Victor Scott | 463 | 111 | 24.0% | 42 | 9.1% |
| Ivan Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Ramon Urias | 391 | 88 | 22.5% | 27 | 6.9% |
| Thomas Saggese | 295 | 83 | 28.1% | 16 | 5.4% |
| Yohel Pozo | 168 | 22 | 13.1% | 7 | 4.2% |
Walker's 31.8% K% is the lineup's biggest contact liability. Saggese (28.1%) is also elevated. Pozo is a contact outlier on the positive side (13.1% K%) but walks rarely (4.2% BB%). Burleson (14.5% K%, 7.2% BB%) and Herrera (18.7% K%, 9.6% BB%) offer the best plate discipline.
Guardians
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | 693 | 60 | 8.7% | 55 | 7.9% |
| Jose Ramirez | 672 | 74 | 11.0% | 66 | 9.8% |
| Kyle Manzardo | 531 | 135 | 25.4% | 48 | 9.0% |
| Angel Martínez | 484 | 110 | 22.7% | 23 | 4.8% |
| Daniel Schneemann | 422 | 117 | 27.7% | 38 | 9.0% |
| Bo Naylor | 414 | 99 | 23.9% | 45 | 10.9% |
| Brayan Rocchio | 383 | 77 | 20.1% | 22 | 5.7% |
| Rhys Hoskins | 328 | 91 | 27.7% | 38 | 11.6% |
| Austin Hedges | 180 | 43 | 23.9% | 18 | 10.0% |
| David Fry | 157 | 58 | 36.9% | 9 | 5.7% |
| George Valera | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 7 | 14.6% |
Cleveland's K%/BB% profile is polarized. Kwan (8.7% K%, 7.9% BB%) and Ramirez (11.0% K%, 9.8% BB%) are elite contact hitters who walk at solid rates. At the other extreme, Fry (36.9% K%) and Hoskins (27.7% K%) are swing-and-miss liabilities. May's 21.1% K% needs to target the high-K hitters (Manzardo 25.4%, Schneemann 27.7%, Naylor 23.9%) rather than trying to punch out Kwan or Ramirez.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Ivan Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Victor Scott | 259 | 40.2% | 32.0% | 27.8% |
| Ramon Urias | 253 | 45.1% | 29.2% | 25.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Thomas Saggese | 189 | 41.8% | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| Yohel Pozo | 133 | 40.6% | 33.1% | 26.3% |
Herrera's 52.6% GB rate is the highest on the Cardinals. Walker (48.9% GB) and Urias (45.1% GB) also lean ground-ball heavy. Against Cecconi's 59.4% GB rate in 2026, the ground-ball-prone hitters could produce a lot of routine grounders. Burleson (42.0% GB, 33.4% FB) and Winn (39.6% GB, 34.0% FB) have more balanced profiles and may elevate better.
Guardians
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | 555 | 39.3% | 30.6% | 30.1% |
| Jose Ramirez | 495 | 35.8% | 38.2% | 26.1% |
| Angel Martínez | 323 | 39.3% | 36.5% | 24.1% |
| Kyle Manzardo | 315 | 34.0% | 40.0% | 26.0% |
| Brayan Rocchio | 262 | 45.8% | 26.7% | 27.5% |
| Daniel Schneemann | 250 | 49.6% | 28.8% | 21.6% |
| Bo Naylor | 249 | 33.3% | 42.2% | 24.5% |
| Rhys Hoskins | 176 | 33.0% | 39.8% | 27.3% |
| Austin Hedges | 106 | 31.1% | 46.2% | 22.6% |
| David Fry | 78 | 38.5% | 41.0% | 20.5% |
| George Valera | 30 | 53.3% | 20.0% | 26.7% |
| Chase DeLauter | 5 | 80.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
Cleveland shows a split: ground-ball-heavy hitters (Schneemann 49.6%, Rocchio 45.8%) play into May's ground-ball approach. But the fly-ball contingent (Naylor 42.2% FB, Manzardo 40.0%, Hoskins 39.8%, Hedges 46.2%) can elevate against May's sinker. DeLauter has only 5 BIP (80% GB) -- too small to profile. Valera (53.3% GB in 30 BIP) is also a small sample. The fly-ball hitters are May's biggest batted-ball concern.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | 132.3 | 123 | 21.1% | 56 | 9.6% | 2.20 |
| Slade Cecconi | 132.0 | 109 | 20.0% | 32 | 5.9% | 3.41 |
Cecconi (20.0% K%, 5.9% BB%, 3.41 K/BB) has the better command profile. May (21.1% K%, 9.6% BB%, 2.20 K/BB) walks too many hitters -- his 9.6% BB% is nearly double Cecconi's. May's walk rate means Cleveland's patient hitters (Ramirez 9.8% BB%, Naylor 10.9%, Hoskins 11.6%) can get on base without swinging. Cecconi's walk stinginess (5.9% BB%) forces hitters to earn their way on.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
MATCHUP 1: Jose Ramirez vs Dustin May. Ramirez is 1-for-3 with a walk career against May (.333/.500 BvP line). He hit .268/.354/.496 vs RHP in 2025 with 24 HR. As a switch hitter batting left against May, he attacks May's vulnerable LHB platoon split (.261/.357/.495). With 44 SB (86.3% success), he also threatens on the bases against a new May-Herrera battery. The best hitter on either side vs a struggling pitcher.
MATCHUP 2: Cardinals RHB vs Cecconi's weaker side. Cecconi allows .271/.313/.465 to RHB -- an 86-point OPS gap vs his LHB splits. Six of nine Cardinals bat right-handed. Winn (.667 BvP, 3 PA) and Urias (.667, 4 PA) have tiny positive samples. The 5-6-7 spots (Urias, Winn, Pozo) are where STL accumulates damage against Cecconi's weaker side.
MATCHUP 3: Steven Kwan's contact vs May's K needs. Kwan (8.7% K%, 7.9% BB%) denies strikeouts and puts the ball in play. In 4 career PA vs May: 1-for-3, 1 BB, 0 K. May needs strikeouts (21.1% K%) to survive -- Kwan refuses to provide them. If Kwan reaches early, his speed (21 SB, 80.8%) creates pressure for hitters behind him.
X-FACTOR: May's new battery. May has zero career games with Herrera catching. His Dodgers-era data shows a best ERA of 3.89 (with Rushing) and 4.98 (with Smith). The unfamiliar pairing could create pitch-selection friction early -- and Cleveland's patient hitters (Ramirez 9.8% BB%, Naylor 10.9%, Hoskins 11.6%) are positioned to punish miscommunication.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. "How has Dustin May pitched at home vs away in his career?"
2. "Jose Ramirez career stats vs right-handed pitching"
3. "Slade Cecconi platoon splits left vs right-handed batters"
4. "Cardinals bullpen inherited runners strand rate 2025"
5. "Steven Kwan strikeout rate and walk rate by season"
6. "Dustin May times through order splits career"
7. "Burleson and Herrera career batting stats vs RHP"
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025