NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | 10-6 | - | W1 |
| Reds | 9-7 | 1.0 | L1 |
| Brewers | 8-7 | 1.5 | L5 |
| Cardinals | 8-8 | 2.0 | L3 |
| Cubs | 7-9 | 3.0 | L1 |
AL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | 10-7 | - | W3 |
| Guardians | 10-7 | - | W1 |
| Royals | 7-9 | 2.5 | L1 |
| Tigers | 7-9 | 2.5 | W3 |
| Sox | 6-10 | 3.5 | W1 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 | CLE | Home | L 3-9 |
| Apr 12 | BOS | Home | L 3-9 |
| Apr 11 | BOS | Home | L 1-7 |
| Apr 10 | BOS | Home | W 3-2 |
| Apr 8 | WSH | Away | W 6-1 |
| Apr 7 | WSH | Away | W 7-6 (10) |
| Apr 6 | WSH | Away | L 6-9 |
| Apr 5 | DET | Away | W 5-3 |
| Apr 4 | DET | Away | L 6-11 |
| Apr 3 | DET | Away | L 0-4 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Michael McGreevy (R) -- Cardinals: 1-1, 2.16 ERA, 16.2 IP, 3 GS, 10 K (16.1%), 2 BB (3.2%), 0.78 WHIP, 1 HR, 48.7% GB%. An extreme ground-ball pitcher with elite walk avoidance. The 16.1% K rate is well below league average (22.7%) -- he relies on weak contact rather than swing-and-miss.
Joey Cantillo (L) -- Guardians: 1-0, 2.45 ERA, 14.2 IP, 3 GS, 20 K (33.3%), 7 BB (11.7%), 1.23 WHIP, 0 HR, 36.4% GB%. A high-strikeout lefty who has not allowed a home run in 2026. The 33.3% K rate is elite, though the 11.7% BB rate creates free baserunners.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-04-13)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | 0.231 | 0.661 |
| 2 | Herrera | C | R | 0.214 | 0.786 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | 0.421 | 1.087 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | 0.235 | 0.938 |
| 5 | Gorman | DH | L | 0.286 | 0.654 |
| 6 | Urias | 3B | R | 0.000 | 0.200 |
| 7 | Fermin | LF | R | 0.250 | 0.583 |
| 8 | Saggese | SS | R | 0.231 | 0.594 |
| 9 | Scott | CF | L | 0.182 | 0.349 |
Handedness: 5 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Urias, Fermin, Saggese), 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Scott).
Guardians (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Martinez | CF | S |
| Hedges | C | R |
| Naylor | C | L |
| Rocchio | SS | S |
| DeLauter | RF | L |
| Schneemann | 2B | L |
| Fry | 1B | R |
| Valera | RF | L |
| Ramirez | 3B | S |
| Brito | SS | S |
| Manzardo | 1B | L |
| Hoskins | 1B | R |
| Kwan | LF | L |
Handedness: 3 RHB (Hedges, Fry, Hoskins), 6 LHB (Naylor, DeLauter, Schneemann, Valera, Manzardo, Kwan).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
Cardinals: Nootbaar (60-day IL, heel surgeries), Dobbins (15-day IL, torn ACL), Pushard (15-day IL, knee tendinitis).
Guardians: G. Arias (10-day IL, hamstring -- Brito recalled), Valera (IL, calf), Gaddis (IL, forearm).
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramon Urias | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Small sample: Ramon Urias (2 PA).
The Cardinals are facing Cantillo essentially blind. Urias' 1-for-2 is a single data point with no predictive value. The entire game plan has to be built from platoon splits and approach profiles -- Cantillo's .203 AVG vs. RHB and .260 vs. LHB are the real scouting edges, not BvP history that doesn't exist.
Bench note: Winn, Church, Pages, Pozo -- no BvP data vs. Cantillo. No-data players from lineup: Wetherholt, Herrera, Burleson, Walker, Gorman, Fermin, Saggese, Scott.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
No data available for this section.
Complete blind matchup. Zero Cleveland batters have career BvP data vs. McGreevy. This is an interleague matchup -- first career meeting for all Cleveland hitters. Analysis relies entirely on platoon splits, batted ball tendencies, and K%/BB% profiles.
Bench note: No bench BvP history vs. McGreevy.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Scott L | 131 | 0.204 | 0.290 | 0.241 | 0 | 11 | 36 |
| Alec Burleson L | 127 | 0.271 | 0.310 | 0.398 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| Ivan Herrera R | 124 | 0.330 | 0.455 | 0.660 | 9 | 19 | 18 |
| Ramon Urias R | 118 | 0.262 | 0.322 | 0.421 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| Jordan Walker R | 107 | 0.255 | 0.318 | 0.347 | 2 | 8 | 32 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 93 | 0.220 | 0.301 | 0.439 | 5 | 10 | 25 |
| Thomas Saggese R | 68 | 0.273 | 0.279 | 0.348 | 1 | 1 | 20 |
| Jose Fermin R | 11 | 0.300 | 0.364 | 0.400 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Herrera is the standout: .330/.455/.660 vs. LHP with 9 HR in 124 PA. That's elite production over a meaningful sample. Cantillo's platoon splits are unusual for a lefty -- he's actually harder on RHB (.203 AVG, .553 OPS) than LHB (.260 AVG, .640 OPS). This means the Cardinals' 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Scott) face Cantillo's more vulnerable side, while the 5 RHB face his dominant side. Scott's .204 AVG and 36 K in 131 PA vs. LHP is the weakest link in the lineup.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez B | 486 | 0.268 | 0.354 | 0.496 | 24 | 51 | 57 |
| Steven Kwan L | 478 | 0.285 | 0.345 | 0.422 | 11 | 40 | 40 |
| Kyle Manzardo L | 442 | 0.242 | 0.324 | 0.458 | 22 | 42 | 111 |
| Daniel Schneemann L | 363 | 0.216 | 0.287 | 0.386 | 12 | 31 | 96 |
| Bo Naylor L | 334 | 0.198 | 0.289 | 0.403 | 12 | 38 | 87 |
| Angel Martinez B | 315 | 0.197 | 0.227 | 0.318 | 6 | 10 | 76 |
| Brayan Rocchio B | 272 | 0.239 | 0.284 | 0.351 | 4 | 14 | 45 |
| Rhys Hoskins R | 226 | 0.244 | 0.336 | 0.420 | 8 | 24 | 64 |
| Austin Hedges R | 91 | 0.154 | 0.239 | 0.282 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| George Valera L | 50 | 0.256 | 0.360 | 0.535 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| David Fry R | 37 | 0.152 | 0.243 | 0.333 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| Chase DeLauter L | 5 | 0.250 | 0.400 | 0.250 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Ramirez (.268/.354/.496, 24 HR) and Kwan (.285/.345/.422) anchor Cleveland's attack. McGreevy's .318 AVG to LHB makes the left-heavy roster (6 LHB + 4 switch hitters batting from the left) a structural mismatch. Manzardo's 22 HR come with 111 K -- high-variance power. Martinez (.197/.227) and Hedges (.154/.239) are near-automatic outs. Fry's .152 AVG with a 36.9% K rate is the most punchable bat in the roster pool.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Cantillo | vs RHB | 294 | 0.203 | 0.272 | 0.350 | 0.553 | 8 | 84 |
| Joey Cantillo | vs LHB | 118 | 0.260 | 0.373 | 0.380 | 0.640 | 3 | 27 |
| Michael McGreevy | vs LHB | 190 | 0.318 | 0.368 | 0.543 | 0.861 | 9 | 27 |
| Michael McGreevy | vs RHB | 210 | 0.225 | 0.255 | 0.325 | 0.550 | 3 | 31 |
The defining split of the game: McGreevy's .861 OPS to LHB (9 HR in 190 PA) vs. his .550 OPS to RHB. Cleveland's roster is built to exploit the LHB vulnerability -- Kwan, Manzardo, Naylor, Schneemann, and Valera are all left-handed, plus Ramirez and Rocchio switch-hit from the left side against righties. Cantillo's reverse platoon (harder on RHB at .203 than LHB at .260) is unusual for a lefty and means the Cardinals' 4 LHB face his weaker side.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Cantillo | Away | 221 | 51.0 | 2.47 | 54 | 25 | 5 |
| Joey Cantillo | Home | 191 | 47.0 | 3.83 | 57 | 19 | 6 |
| Michael McGreevy | Away | 188 | 45.9 | 3.55 | 24 | 9 | 6 |
| Michael McGreevy | Home | 212 | 50.0 | 5.22 | 34 | 11 | 6 |
Today's game is at Busch Stadium -- McGreevy pitching home, Cantillo pitching away. Cantillo is better on the road (2.47 ERA, 221 BF) than at home (3.83 ERA). McGreevy is notably worse at home: 5.22 ERA (29 ER in 50 IP, 56 H) vs. 3.55 on the road (18 ER in 45.9 IP, 44 H). The venue split compounds McGreevy's LHB problem.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Cantillo | TTO1 | 242 | 0.204 | 0.333 | 0.537 | 5 | 68 | 25 |
| Joey Cantillo | TTO2 | 123 | 0.262 | 0.439 | 0.701 | 5 | 26 | 15 |
| Joey Cantillo | TTO3 | 47 | 0.186 | 0.279 | 0.465 | 1 | 17 | 4 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO1 | 154 | 0.282 | 0.465 | 0.747 | 5 | 22 | 8 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO2 | 152 | 0.271 | 0.417 | 0.688 | 4 | 14 | 6 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO3 | 94 | 0.241 | 0.379 | 0.620 | 3 | 22 | 6 |
Cantillo's TTO2 is the vulnerability window: AVG jumps from .204 to .262, OPS from .537 to .701, and K rate drops sharply (68 K in 242 TTO1 PA vs. 26 K in 123 TTO2 PA). Innings 4-6 are where the Cardinals need to do damage. Cantillo rebounds in TTO3 (.186 AVG, 17 K in 47 PA) -- if he survives TTO2, he tightens up. McGreevy is relatively stable across all three looks, actually improving as the game goes on (.282 -> .271 -> .241 AVG). His K rate jumps in TTO3 (22 K in 94 PA) as hitters may be overswinging after seeing his movement twice.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Ryan Fernandez | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
Romero (88.5% strand rate) is the only reliever above league average (~68-72%). Svanson (50.0%), Graceffo (54.5%), and Fernandez (50.0%) are all at or below coin-flip rates. Last night's 8th-inning collapse -- Fernandez's throwing error with runners on leading to 3 unearned runs -- is a concrete example of the risk. When McGreevy exits with runners, the call to Romero is the only safe bridge. O'Brien (70.0%) is the secondary option at league average.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Cantillo | 246 | 42.3% | 29.7% | 27.6% |
| Michael McGreevy | 307 | 49.2% | 25.7% | 24.4% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- CLE
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chase DeLauter | 0.250 | 0.000 | -- |
| David Fry | 0.167 | 0.688 | 0.000 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.091 | 0.667 | 0.020 |
| Rhys Hoskins | 0.293 | 0.646 | 0.086 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.243 | 0.557 | 0.059 |
| Kyle Manzardo | 0.187 | 0.634 | 0.087 |
| Angel Martinez | 0.252 | 0.641 | 0.051 |
| Bo Naylor | 0.145 | 0.574 | 0.076 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.237 | 0.674 | 0.058 |
| Brayan Rocchio | 0.200 | 0.611 | 0.086 |
| Daniel Schneemann | 0.234 | 0.574 | 0.097 |
| George Valera | 0.125 | 0.625 | 0.167 |
McGreevy's 49.2% GB rate meets a Cleveland lineup with several fly-ball oriented hitters: Naylor (42.2% FB%), Manzardo (40.0%), Hoskins (39.8%), Ramirez (38.2%). When a ground-ball pitcher meets fly-ball hitters, the vertical battle determines who wins. Kwan's 30.1% LD rate and .557 LD AVG make him the most dangerous contact bat -- he peppers line drives and rarely strikes out. Schneemann (49.6% GB%) and Rocchio (45.8% GB%) play more into McGreevy's ground-ball approach.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pages | 14 | 80.7 | 4.24 | 0.266 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 2 | 8.7 | 9.35 | 0.385 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 1 | 5.7 | 0.00 | 0.056 | -- | -- |
Pages has caught the vast majority of McGreevy's career starts (14 G, 80.7 IP). The 4.24 ERA reflects the full career sample including McGreevy's rougher stretches. Herrera is projected to catch tonight -- a newer pairing. McGreevy's ground-ball approach (49.2% GB%) puts less receiving burden on the catcher but more emphasis on framing the edges where his limited strikeout ability requires called strikes.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Cleveland baserunning threats (2025):
Ramirez: 44 SB, 7 CS (86.3% success) -- elite volume and efficiency. The primary running threat on any night.
Kwan: 21 SB, 5 CS (80.8%) -- secondary weapon, often running in hit-and-run situations.
Schneemann: 9 SB, 3 CS (75.0%) -- opportunistic runner with average efficiency.
Martinez: 8 SB, 2 CS (80.0%) -- active for a CF with a 80% clip.
Rocchio: 8 SB, 4 CS (66.7%) -- below-average efficiency tempers the attempts.
With McGreevy's 49.2% GB rate, runners will reach via infield singles and grounders through the hole. Herrera's ability to control the running game is critical against Cleveland's five players with 8+ SB in 2025. Ramirez and Kwan together account for 65 SB at an 84.4% combined success rate.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Scott | OF | 147 | 3 | 6 | 0.983 |
| Jordan Walker | OF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Alec Burleson | OF | 75 | 1 | 1 | 0.992 |
| Ramon Urias | 3B | 68 | 18 | 3 | 0.983 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2B | 35 | 24 | 4 | 0.973 |
| Thomas Saggese | SS | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0.988 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Ramon Urias | 2B | 25 | 7 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 3B | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0.939 |
| Jose Fermin | 2B | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Ramon Urias | 3B | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0.944 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Jose Fermin | 3B | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Jose Fermin | OF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | OF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ramon Urias | 1B | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ramon Urias | 2B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
With McGreevy's 49.2% GB rate, infield defense matters. Urias (.983 at 3B, 68 G) and Fermin (1.000 at 2B, 15 G) provide clean glovework. Saggese at SS (.988, 33 G) is the newer piece at short. Gorman is DHing tonight, keeping his .950 3B fielding percentage (6 E in 54 G) out of the equation. The outfield alignment (Scott CF, Walker RF, Fermin LF) prioritizes Scott's range in center for any balls that get through the ground-ball barrage.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-head (last 3 seasons): 2025: STL 3-0 | 2024: STL 2-1 | 2023: STL 1-2 | 3-year total: Cardinals 6-3.
Busch Stadium is a neutral-to-slight-pitcher-friendly park. McGreevy's ground-ball approach (49.2% GB%) should play well in theory, but his 5.22 home ERA suggests the home environment hasn't translated to better results. Cantillo pitching away (2.47 road ERA) holds the venue edge tonight.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Victor Scott | 463 | 111 | 24.0% | 42 | 9.1% |
| Ivan Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Ramon Urias | 391 | 88 | 22.5% | 27 | 6.9% |
| Thomas Saggese | 295 | 83 | 28.1% | 16 | 5.4% |
| Jose Fermin | 70 | 10 | 14.3% | 8 | 11.4% |
Gorman (33.8% K%), Walker (31.8%), and Saggese (28.1%) are all above league average K rate (22.7%) and could struggle against Cantillo's 33.3% K rate. Saggese's 5.4% BB rate is the lowest in the lineup -- he doesn't walk, doesn't strike out enough hitters out himself, but Cantillo can exploit that passivity. Burleson (14.5% K%) and Fermin (14.3%) are the best contact bats in the lineup.
Guardians
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | 693 | 60 | 8.7% | 55 | 7.9% |
| Jose Ramirez | 672 | 74 | 11.0% | 66 | 9.8% |
| Kyle Manzardo | 531 | 135 | 25.4% | 48 | 9.0% |
| Angel Martinez | 484 | 110 | 22.7% | 23 | 4.8% |
| Daniel Schneemann | 422 | 117 | 27.7% | 38 | 9.0% |
| Bo Naylor | 414 | 99 | 23.9% | 45 | 10.9% |
| Brayan Rocchio | 383 | 77 | 20.1% | 22 | 5.7% |
| Rhys Hoskins | 328 | 91 | 27.7% | 38 | 11.6% |
| Austin Hedges | 180 | 43 | 23.9% | 18 | 10.0% |
| David Fry | 157 | 58 | 36.9% | 9 | 5.7% |
| George Valera | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 7 | 14.6% |
Kwan (8.7% K%) and Ramirez (11.0% K%) are elite contact bats that McGreevy's 14.5% K rate cannot overpower -- he needs them to put the ball on the ground, not strike them out. On the Cardinals side, Fry's 36.9% K rate is extreme and makes him a Cantillo strikeout target. Martinez (4.8% BB%) and Rocchio (5.7% BB%) rarely walk, which means McGreevy's 5.0% BB rate won't gift them free passes. The approach contrast is clear: Cleveland's top of the order won't give McGreevy easy outs; the Cardinals' high-K hitters might give Cantillo plenty.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Ivan Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Victor Scott | 259 | 40.2% | 32.0% | 27.8% |
| Ramon Urias | 253 | 45.1% | 29.2% | 25.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
| Thomas Saggese | 189 | 41.8% | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| Jose Fermin | 46 | 37.0% | 32.6% | 30.4% |
Gorman (30.2% GB%, 41.7% FB%) is the most fly-ball oriented Cardinal -- he could elevate against Cantillo's 42.3% GB rate. Herrera (52.6% GB%) hits a lot of ground balls, which is concerning against Cantillo's ground-ball approach. Fermin's 30.4% LD rate in a small sample (46 BIP) is the highest on the team.
Guardians
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | 555 | 39.3% | 30.6% | 30.1% |
| Jose Ramirez | 495 | 35.8% | 38.2% | 26.1% |
| Angel Martinez | 323 | 39.3% | 36.5% | 24.1% |
| Kyle Manzardo | 315 | 34.0% | 40.0% | 26.0% |
| Brayan Rocchio | 262 | 45.8% | 26.7% | 27.5% |
| Daniel Schneemann | 250 | 49.6% | 28.8% | 21.6% |
| Bo Naylor | 249 | 33.3% | 42.2% | 24.5% |
| Rhys Hoskins | 176 | 33.0% | 39.8% | 27.3% |
| Austin Hedges | 106 | 31.1% | 46.2% | 22.6% |
| David Fry | 78 | 38.5% | 41.0% | 20.5% |
| George Valera | 30 | 53.3% | 20.0% | 26.7% |
| Chase DeLauter | 5 | 80.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
McGreevy's 49.2% GB rate collides with Cleveland's fly-ball core: Hedges (46.2% FB%), Naylor (42.2%), Fry (41.0%), Manzardo (40.0%), Hoskins (39.8%), Ramirez (38.2%). These hitters try to lift the ball while McGreevy pushes it down -- the vertical battle will determine how many runs score. Kwan's 30.1% LD rate is the highest in the Cleveland roster pool and his .557 career LD AVG makes every line drive dangerous. Schneemann (49.6% GB%) and Rocchio (45.8% GB%) naturally play into McGreevy's hands.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Cantillo | 95.3 | 108 | 26.9% | 42 | 10.5% | 2.57 |
| Michael McGreevy | 95.7 | 58 | 14.5% | 20 | 5.0% | 2.90 |
Opposite pitcher profiles. Cantillo is high-K (26.9%), moderate-BB (10.5%) -- he can pitch around trouble with strikeouts but creates free baserunners. McGreevy is low-K (14.5%), extreme-low-BB (5.0%) -- he never walks anyone but needs his defense because hitters put the ball in play. McGreevy's 2.90 K/BB ratio is actually higher despite fewer strikeouts, reflecting his elite walk avoidance. Different game scripts: Cantillo can survive a jam; McGreevy needs to avoid them entirely.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
1. Herrera vs. Cantillo (LHP). Herrera's .330/.455/.660 vs. LHP (124 PA, 9 HR, 2025) is elite production. Cantillo dominates RHB at .203 AVG, but Herrera is built to destroy lefties regardless of their platoon profile. He's the single biggest batter threat in the Cardinals' lineup. Getting him to the plate with runners on in the TTO2 window (innings 4-6) is the optimal strategy.
2. Cleveland's LHB Core vs. McGreevy. McGreevy allows .318/.368/.543 (0.861 OPS, 9 HR) to LHB. Cleveland can stack Kwan (.285 vs. RHP), Manzardo (.242/.324/.458, 22 HR), Naylor (.198/.289/.403, 12 HR), and Schneemann (.216/.287/.386, 12 HR). Switch hitters Ramirez (.268/.354/.496, 24 HR) and Rocchio bat from the left side against McGreevy. The roster construction is a structural mismatch against McGreevy's biggest weakness.
3. McGreevy at Home (5.22 ERA). 56 H and 29 ER in 50.0 home IP vs. 44 H and 18 ER in 45.9 road IP. McGreevy faces his worst platoon matchup in his worst venue environment tonight. The combination of LHB-heavy Cleveland and his home struggles creates compounding risk.
X-Factor: Bullpen strand rates. Romero (88.5%) is the only reliable fireman. Svanson (50.0%), Graceffo (54.5%), and Fernandez (50.0%) are coin-flip or worse. Last night's 8th-inning collapse (Fernandez error, 3 unearned runs) illustrated the risk concretely. When McGreevy exits with runners, it must be Romero or O'Brien (70.0%).
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
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