NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | 9-6 | - | L1 |
| Reds | 9-7 | 0.5 | L1 |
| Cardinals | 8-7 | 1.0 | L2 |
| Brewers | 8-7 | 1.0 | L5 |
| Cubs | 7-8 | 2.0 | W1 |
AL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | 9-7 | - | W2 |
| Guardians | 9-7 | - | L1 |
| Royals | 7-9 | 2.0 | L1 |
| Tigers | 7-9 | 2.0 | W3 |
| Sox | 6-10 | 3.0 | W1 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12 | BOS | Home | L 3-9 |
| Apr 11 | BOS | Home | L 1-7 |
| Apr 10 | BOS | Home | W 3-2 |
| Apr 8 | WSH | Away | W 6-1 |
| Apr 7 | WSH | Away | W 7-6 (10) |
| Apr 6 | WSH | Away | L 6-9 |
| Apr 5 | DET | Away | W 5-3 |
| Apr 4 | DET | Away | L 6-11 |
| Apr 3 | DET | Away | L 0-4 |
| Apr 1 | NYM | Home | W 2-1 (11) |
STARTING PITCHERS
Matthew Liberatore (L) -- 2026: 0-0, 3.38 ERA, 16.0 IP, 3 GS. 10 K (14.1%), 5 BB (7.0%), 1.50 WHIP, 4 HR allowed. GB%: 40.5%. Liberatore has been serviceable across three starts but hasn't been sharp -- the 1.50 WHIP and 4 HR in 16.0 IP show he's been around the zone without commanding it. His strikeout rate (14.1%) is below league average, meaning he leans on contact management rather than swing-and-miss. At Busch Stadium tonight, he gets his home venue advantage: career home ERA 3.69 vs. road 4.03, with a notably better walk rate at home (14 BB per 75.9 IP vs. 26 per 76.0 IP away).
Gavin Williams (R) -- 2026: 1-1, 2.04 ERA, 17.2 IP, 3 GS. 25 K (37.3%), 14 BB (20.9%), 1.08 WHIP, 2 HR allowed. GB%: 56.5%. Williams is generating strikeouts at an elite level -- 37.3% K% is among the league's best -- but the 20.9% walk rate is the structural problem. He has walked 14 batters in 17.2 IP. His career splits are extreme: LHB allowed .163/.271/.319 (.482 OPS) while RHB hit .263/.342/.404 (.667 OPS). The Cardinals' 5 RHB are the primary offensive path against him.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-04-12)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L |
| 2 | Herrera | C | R |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R |
| 5 | Gorman | DH | L |
| 6 | Urías | 3B | R |
| 7 | Fermín | LF | R |
| 8 | Saggese | SS | R |
| 9 | Scott | CF | L |
Handedness: 5 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Urías, Fermín, Saggese), 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Scott).
Guardians (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Martínez | CF | S |
| Hedges | C | R |
| Naylor | C | L |
| Rocchio | SS | S |
| Kayfus | 1B | L |
| DeLauter | RF | L |
| Schneemann | 2B | L |
| Fry | 1B | R |
| Ramírez | 3B | S |
| Brito | SS | S |
| Manzardo | 1B | L |
| Hoskins | 1B | R |
| Kwan | LF | L |
Handedness: 3 RHB (Hedges, Fry, Hoskins), 6 LHB (Naylor, Kayfus, DeLauter, Schneemann, Manzardo, Kwan).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
Cardinals IL: Lars Nootbaar (60-day IL -- bilateral heel surgeries, no return timeline). Hunter Dobbins (15-day IL -- torn right ACL, on Triple-A Memphis rehab). Matt Pushard (15-day IL -- right knee patellar tendinitis).
Guardians IL: Gabriel Arias (10-day IL, left hamstring strain -- out 4-8 weeks, Juan Brito recalled as replacement). George Valera (IL since Mar 22, left calf strain). Andrew Walters (IL since Mar 22, post-lat surgery, potential May return). Hunter Gaddis (IL since Mar 22, right forearm).
Lineup note: Guardians lineup from active roster only. No confirmed batting order available. Actual 9-man lineup announced closer to first pitch.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Walker | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ramon Urias | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Small sample: Alec Burleson (3 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA), Ramon Urias (3 PA).
The Cardinals are essentially going in blind against Williams tonight. Only three lineup members have any tracked career history against him, and all three are hitless: Burleson (0-for-3), Walker (0-for-2), Urías (0-for-2, but with 1 BB for a .333 OBP). The sample sizes are too small to carry predictive weight -- a 3-PA sample against a pitcher is noise. The more relevant data for tonight is the platoon splits (Section 2C) and the walk-rate dynamic.
No-data players: Wetherholt, Herrera, Gorman, Fermín, Saggese, Scott -- no career BvP history vs. Williams in the database.
Bench BvP note: No significant bench BvP history against Williams identified in the active Cardinals roster.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0.167 | 0.167 | 0.167 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhys Hoskins | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.500 | 0.333 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Jose Ramirez | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.167 | 0.000 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| David Fry | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Angel Martínez | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.667 | 0.500 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Schneemann | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Austin Hedges | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bo Naylor | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Small sample: Steven Kwan (6 PA), Rhys Hoskins (8 PA), Jose Ramirez (6 PA), David Fry (3 PA), Angel Martínez (3 PA), Daniel Schneemann (2 PA), Austin Hedges (2 PA), Bo Naylor (1 PA).
The Guardians' BvP history against Liberatore is thin across the board. Hoskins is the standout: 2-for-6 with 2 BB (.333 AVG, .500 OBP, 8 PA) -- the best sample on either side of this matchup. He's shown patience at the plate against Liberatore, which aligns with his career .221/.324/.407 vs. LHP (102 PA). No danger bat callout triggered -- no player meets the threshold of 10+ PA and .400+ AVG.
Ramirez is 0-for-5 (6 PA, 1 BB) against Liberatore, but his .318/.384/.506 career line vs. LHP with 6 HR (199 PA) suggests the BvP sample undersells him. Fry's 0-for-3 with 2 K (3 PA) aligns with his 36.9% career K% against LHP. Martínez' .500/.667/.500 line (3 PA) is noise from a 2-AB sample.
No-data players (absent from BvP table): Kayfus, Rocchio, DeLauter, Manzardo, Brito -- no career BvP history vs. Liberatore in the database.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | 0.296 | 0.353 | 0.478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Victor Scott L | 332 | 0.221 | 0.310 | 0.317 | 5 | 31 | 75 |
| Ivan Herrera R | 328 | 0.268 | 0.343 | 0.399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 309 | 0.201 | 0.294 | 0.349 | 9 | 37 | 111 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | 0.200 | 0.263 | 0.291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Ramon Urias R | 273 | 0.233 | 0.278 | 0.367 | 7 | 17 | 57 |
| Thomas Saggese R | 227 | 0.254 | 0.305 | 0.340 | 1 | 15 | 63 |
| José Fermín R | 59 | 0.280 | 0.379 | 0.420 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
Against right-handed pitching (Williams throws right), the Cardinals lineup has a clear performance tier. Burleson (.296/.353/.478, .831 OPS, 419 PA) and Fermín (.280/.379/.420, .799 OPS, 59 PA) are the standouts. Herrera (.268/.343/.399, .742 OPS) and Saggese (.254/.305/.340) provide solid secondary production from the right side. These four are the Cardinals' best on-base candidates against Williams.
The liability tier: Walker (.200/.263/.291, .554 OPS vs. RHP, 289 PA) is the lineup's largest hole against a power right-hander. Gorman (.201/.294/.349, .643 OPS, 309 PA) offers home run upside but 33.8% K% exposure. The 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Scott) face Williams' dominant split (.163/.271/.319 vs. LHB) -- the 5 RHB are the better half of this lineup against Williams, but Walker's struggles keep the ceiling modest.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan L | 229 | 0.240 | 0.294 | 0.274 | 0 | 15 | 20 |
| Jose Ramirez B | 199 | 0.318 | 0.384 | 0.506 | 6 | 19 | 19 |
| Angel Martínez B | 172 | 0.280 | 0.349 | 0.440 | 5 | 13 | 36 |
| David Fry R | 120 | 0.177 | 0.225 | 0.372 | 6 | 5 | 44 |
| Brayan Rocchio B | 120 | 0.216 | 0.299 | 0.333 | 2 | 8 | 35 |
| Rhys Hoskins R | 102 | 0.221 | 0.324 | 0.407 | 4 | 14 | 27 |
| Kyle Manzardo L | 101 | 0.185 | 0.248 | 0.402 | 5 | 7 | 27 |
| Austin Hedges R | 92 | 0.167 | 0.275 | 0.269 | 2 | 12 | 25 |
| Bo Naylor L | 88 | 0.177 | 0.241 | 0.304 | 3 | 7 | 13 |
| Daniel Schneemann L | 62 | 0.151 | 0.258 | 0.170 | 0 | 7 | 22 |
| Chase DeLauter L | 2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Against left-handed pitching (Liberatore), Ramirez is the clear threat: .318/.384/.506 (.890 OPS, 199 PA, 6 HR) from the switch-hitting stance. Switch hitters Ramirez, Martínez, Rocchio, and Brito bat from their right side against Liberatore -- the data here reflects their vs. LHP splits. Martínez (.280/.349/.440, .789 OPS, 172 PA) is the second-most dangerous bat in this matchup from the switch group.
The pure LHB contingent (Kwan, Naylor, Manzardo, Schneemann, DeLauter, Kayfus) mostly struggle against LHP in this dataset: Kwan (.240/.294/.274), Naylor (.177/.241/.304), Manzardo (.185/.248/.402), and Schneemann (.151/.258/.170) all project below league average. The lineup is heavily LHB/switch-dominated, but the neutrality of Liberatore's LHB split (.274 career AVG allowed vs. LHB) means he doesn't have a significant platoon advantage to exploit against this group.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | vs RHB | 515 | 0.265 | 0.304 | 0.426 | 0.691 | 16 | 93 |
| Matthew Liberatore | vs LHB | 133 | 0.274 | 0.348 | 0.410 | 0.684 | 3 | 29 |
| Gavin Williams | vs LHB | 377 | 0.163 | 0.271 | 0.319 | 0.482 | 13 | 99 |
| Gavin Williams | vs RHB | 351 | 0.263 | 0.342 | 0.404 | 0.667 | 10 | 82 |
Liberatore is essentially platoon-neutral. vs. RHB: .265/.304/.426 (.691 OPS, 515 PA); vs. LHB: .274/.348/.410 (.684 OPS, 133 PA). The OPS gap is just 7 points. Cleveland cannot exploit a traditional platoon advantage against Liberatore -- whether they stack left-handers or right-handers in the lineup, the historical production against him is nearly identical. The Guardians' lineup (6 LHB, 4 switch-hitters batting right vs. LHP) doesn't gain a structural edge from handedness alone.
Williams has an extreme LHB platoon advantage. vs. LHB: .163/.271/.319 (.482 OPS, 377 PA); vs. RHB: .263/.342/.404 (.667 OPS, 351 PA). The .185 OPS gap is one of the more pronounced splits in this dataset. The Cardinals' 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Scott) face a .482 OPS suppression profile -- their plate appearances will produce minimal offense. The Cardinals' best offensive innings must be driven by the 5 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Urías, Fermín, Saggese), who face a more hittable .667 OPS split from Williams.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | Away | 334 | 76.0 | 4.03 | 59 | 26 | 11 |
| Matthew Liberatore | Home | 314 | 75.9 | 3.69 | 63 | 14 | 8 |
| Gavin Williams | Away | 345 | 80.9 | 2.90 | 69 | 46 | 12 |
| Gavin Williams | Home | 383 | 93.0 | 2.81 | 112 | 38 | 11 |
Liberatore pitches at home tonight (Busch Stadium). Career home ERA: 3.69 vs. road ERA: 4.03. The home advantage is real and supported by command data: 14 BB in 75.9 home IP vs. 26 BB in 76.0 road IP -- nearly half the walk rate at home. This suggests Liberatore's command and tempo are noticeably better in St. Louis. Expect tighter locations and fewer free passes than his road profile would suggest.
Williams pitches away tonight. Career away ERA: 2.90 vs. home ERA: 2.81. The split is remarkably flat -- Williams is consistently excellent in both environments. Away performance (345 BF, 80.9 IP, 69 K, 46 BB) maintains his high-walk-rate tendency on the road. No meaningful home/away edge for either team to exploit against Williams.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | TTO1 | 264 | 0.237 | 0.376 | 0.613 | 8 | 56 | 15 |
| Matthew Liberatore | TTO2 | 252 | 0.310 | 0.511 | 0.821 | 9 | 40 | 17 |
| Matthew Liberatore | TTO3 | 132 | 0.244 | 0.353 | 0.597 | 2 | 26 | 8 |
| Gavin Williams | TTO1 | 291 | 0.195 | 0.347 | 0.542 | 9 | 77 | 39 |
| Gavin Williams | TTO2 | 281 | 0.206 | 0.296 | 0.502 | 4 | 71 | 32 |
| Gavin Williams | TTO3 | 156 | 0.250 | 0.500 | 0.750 | 10 | 33 | 13 |
Liberatore TTO Profile -- The TTO2 Spike: TTO1 (first pass): .237/.281/.376 (.613 OPS) -- manageable. TTO2 (second pass): .310/.360/.511 (.821 OPS) -- the danger window. TTO3: .244/.288/.353 (.597 OPS). The jump from TTO1 to TTO2 is stark: +.073 AVG, +.135 SLG, +.208 OPS. Innings 4-6 are when the Cardinals' bullpen decision becomes critical. A two-run lead entering TTO2 is not safe with this profile. The Cardinals' manager should be watching pitch count and fatigue closely at the TTO1-TTO2 boundary.
Williams TTO Profile -- Consistent Suppression: TTO1: .195/.306/.347 (.542 OPS); TTO2: .206/.296/.296 (.502 OPS); TTO3: .250/.321/.500 (.750 OPS). Williams actually improves from TTO1 to TTO2 -- he gets more efficient as the game progresses through two passes of the order. The TTO3 jump (.750 OPS) is real but requires Williams to go deep in the game. Given his 20.9% walk rate in 2026, pitch efficiency concerns may limit him to TTO2 regardless. Cardinals hitters should not assume Williams weakens as the game progresses -- he typically doesn't.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate: ~68-72%. The Cardinals bullpen splits sharply. JoJo Romero (88.5% strand rate, 26 IR) is significantly above league average and is the ideal arm if Liberatore exits with runners on base. McGreevy (100.0%, 3 IR) has a perfect rate but the sample is tiny. Riley O'Brien (70.0%, 10 IR) sits at league average.
The problem arms: Matt Svanson (50.0% strand rate, 26 IR) and Gordon Graceffo (54.5%, 11 IR) are meaningfully below league average -- Svanson has allowed 13 of 26 inherited runners to score. Kyle Leahy (62.1%, 29 IR) is also below average in a larger sample. If Liberatore is removed in TTO2 with men on base, the arm selection matters enormously. Romero is the only clear high-strand-rate option with a meaningful sample.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | 463 | 39.1% | 31.3% | 27.6% |
| Gavin Williams | 437 | 47.6% | 29.7% | 22.9% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- CLE
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chase DeLauter | 0.250 | 0.000 | -- |
| David Fry | 0.167 | 0.688 | 0.000 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.091 | 0.667 | 0.020 |
| Rhys Hoskins | 0.293 | 0.646 | 0.086 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.243 | 0.557 | 0.059 |
| Kyle Manzardo | 0.187 | 0.634 | 0.087 |
| Angel Martínez | 0.252 | 0.641 | 0.051 |
| Bo Naylor | 0.145 | 0.574 | 0.076 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.237 | 0.674 | 0.058 |
| Brayan Rocchio | 0.200 | 0.611 | 0.086 |
| Daniel Schneemann | 0.234 | 0.574 | 0.097 |
Williams (47.6% GB, 22.9% LD) vs. Cardinals contact profile: Williams generates ground balls at a high rate and limits line drives (22.9% LD% is low). Cardinals hitters who are ground-ball-heavy -- Herrera (52.6% GB), Walker (48.9% GB), Urías (45.1% GB) -- play directly into Williams' strength. Their batted ball tendencies will produce grounders, which Williams' GB-inducing profile converts to outs. The Cardinals' best outcome against Williams requires elevation. Gorman (41.7% FB, 30.2% GB) is the lineup's best candidate to lift the ball -- his fly ball tendency is the sharpest contrast to Williams' ground-ball approach.
Liberatore (39.1% GB, 27.6% LD) vs. Cleveland's line drive potential: Liberatore's 27.6% LD rate allowed is the number to watch. Cleveland's lineup converts line drives at elite rates: Ramirez (.674 LD AVG), Fry (.688), Hoskins (.646), Manzardo (.634), Martínez (.641). If Liberatore drifts into hittable counts and leaves the ball in the middle of the zone, this lineup will generate hard line drive contact. The ground balls they do hit (Schneemann 49.6% GB, Rocchio 45.8% GB) will be mostly outs -- but line drives will not be.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 15 | 75.7 | 3.93 | 0.279 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 12 | 63.7 | 4.10 | 0.259 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 2 | 11.0 | 2.45 | 0.225 | -- | -- |
The battery table covers Cardinals catchers paired with all Cardinals pitchers (not Liberatore specifically). Pagés (3.93 ERA, 15 G) and Pozo (4.10 ERA, 12 G) are the primary duo in the 2025 dataset; Crooks has the lowest ERA (2.45) but in only 2 games. Tonight's projected catcher is Herrera (listed in the lineup), who does not appear in this table's top results -- the data reflects the Pagés/Pozo rotation from prior seasons. No battery-specific red flags for the Liberatore-Herrera pairing. OBP/SLG are not available for this section.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Cleveland stolen base threats (career data):
• José Ramírez: 44 SB, 7 CS -- 86.3% success rate. The most dangerous baserunner on the Guardians roster. Despite going 0-for-5 in BvP against Liberatore, his .318/.384/.506 vs. LHP career line means he will reach base. A stolen base attempt is probable. Herrera's arm is tested.
• Steven Kwan: 21 SB, 5 CS -- 80.8% success rate. A reliable base thief. His .240 vs. LHP limits on-base opportunities, but once he reaches, he runs efficiently.
• Daniel Schneemann: 9 SB, 3 CS -- 75.0% success rate. Limited by a poor vs. LHP line (.151/.258/.170), so his on-base chances are constrained.
• Angel Martínez: 8 SB, 2 CS -- 80.0% success rate. An active runner who can create chaos when on base.
• Brayan Rocchio: 8 SB, 4 CS -- 66.7% success rate. Below-average stolen base efficiency -- least reliable of Cleveland's baserunning options.
• Rhys Hoskins: 2 SB, 1 CS -- 66.7% success. Kyle Manzardo: 2 SB, 0 CS -- 100%. David Fry: 1 SB, 0 CS -- 100%. Bo Naylor: 1 SB, 2 CS -- 33.3%. Austin Hedges: 1 SB, 2 CS -- 33.3%.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Scott | OF | 147 | 3 | 6 | 0.983 |
| Jordan Walker | OF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Alec Burleson | OF | 75 | 1 | 1 | 0.992 |
| Ramon Urias | 3B | 68 | 18 | 3 | 0.983 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2B | 35 | 24 | 4 | 0.973 |
| Thomas Saggese | SS | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0.988 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Ramon Urias | 2B | 25 | 7 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 3B | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0.939 |
| José Fermín | 2B | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Ramon Urias | 3B | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0.944 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | 3B | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | OF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ivan Herrera | OF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ramon Urias | 1B | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ramon Urias | 2B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
The Cardinals' defense is solid at most positions. Burleson (.992 in OF, .990 at 1B) is the most reliable fielder in the lineup. Urías at 3B (.983, 68 G, 18 DP) and Herrera at C (.989) are dependable. The outfield trio of Scott (.983), Walker (.981), and Burleson (.992) covers ground reliably.
The infield middle is the area to watch. Saggese's primary 2B sample is solid (.973, 35 G) but he grades lower at 3B (.939, 18 G). In the projected lineup, Wetherholt starts at 2B -- he has no 2025 defensive data in this table (rookie). Saggese slots to SS (.988, 33 G), where he has handled the position adequately. Given Cleveland's baserunning threats (Ramírez, Kwan), infield range and arm strength on ground balls will matter in close situations.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Recent Seasons (STL vs. CLE): 2025 -- Cardinals 3-0 (swept Cleveland). 2024 -- Cardinals 2-1. 2023 -- Cardinals 1-2. Three-year total: Cardinals 6-3 advantage over Cleveland in interleague play. This is Game 1 of their first 2026 series.
Busch Stadium context: Busch Stadium (dimensions: 330-LF, 372-LC, 400-CF, 372-RC, 335-RF) plays as a mild pitcher's park, slightly below league average for run scoring. Williams' 47.6% GB rate pairs naturally with the spacious gaps -- ground balls die in the infield dirt. For Liberatore, the home environment provides a modest structural advantage (career 3.69 home ERA vs. 4.03 road), particularly for walk suppression.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Victor Scott | 463 | 111 | 24.0% | 42 | 9.1% |
| Ivan Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Ramon Urias | 391 | 88 | 22.5% | 27 | 6.9% |
| Thomas Saggese | 295 | 83 | 28.1% | 16 | 5.4% |
| José Fermín | 70 | 10 | 14.3% | 8 | 11.4% |
Williams' elite 37.3% K% in 2026 maps directly onto the Cardinals' high-strikeout bats. Gorman (33.8% K%), Walker (31.8% K%), and Saggese (28.1% K%) are the most vulnerable. Saggese also posts the lineup's lowest BB% at 5.4% -- a concerning combination of high K%, low walk discipline against a strikeout pitcher. Burleson (14.5% K%, 7.2% BB%) and Fermín (14.3% K%, 11.4% BB%) are the Cardinals' most contact-stable hitters and will give Williams the most work per at-bat.
Guardians
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | 693 | 60 | 8.7% | 55 | 7.9% |
| Jose Ramirez | 672 | 74 | 11.0% | 66 | 9.8% |
| Kyle Manzardo | 531 | 135 | 25.4% | 48 | 9.0% |
| Angel Martínez | 484 | 110 | 22.7% | 23 | 4.8% |
| Daniel Schneemann | 422 | 117 | 27.7% | 38 | 9.0% |
| Bo Naylor | 414 | 99 | 23.9% | 45 | 10.9% |
| Brayan Rocchio | 383 | 77 | 20.1% | 22 | 5.7% |
| Rhys Hoskins | 328 | 91 | 27.7% | 38 | 11.6% |
| Austin Hedges | 180 | 43 | 23.9% | 18 | 10.0% |
| David Fry | 157 | 58 | 36.9% | 9 | 5.7% |
Cleveland K% context for Liberatore: Kwan (8.7% K%) and Ramírez (11.0% K%) are the Cardinals' toughest contact matchups -- both make contact at elite rates and consistently put the ball in play. Liberatore's 18.8% career K% means he's not a swing-and-miss arm; he needs weak contact to succeed. Against Kwan and Ramírez, he will rarely get a free strikeout. These two at the top of the order (likely positions) set the table for Cleveland's middle.
Liberatore's legitimate strikeout targets: David Fry (36.9% K%, lowest BB% in lineup at 5.7%), Schneemann (27.7% K%), and Hoskins (27.7% K%). These bats offer swing-and-miss upside that Liberatore can exploit, particularly in TTO1. The question is whether the contact-dominant bats (Kwan, Ramírez) can carry the lineup into TTO2 before Fry and Schneemann's K tendencies produce outs.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Ivan Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Victor Scott | 259 | 40.2% | 32.0% | 27.8% |
| Ramon Urias | 253 | 45.1% | 29.2% | 25.7% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
| Thomas Saggese | 189 | 41.8% | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| José Fermín | 46 | 37.0% | 32.6% | 30.4% |
Williams' 47.6% GB rate collides directly with the Cardinals' ground-ball-heavy hitters. Herrera (52.6% GB), Walker (48.9% GB), Urías (45.1% GB), and Burleson (42.0% GB) are the lineup's most likely ground ball producers -- their contact tendencies align with Williams' pitching style, producing outs rather than hits. Gorman is the outlier: 30.2% GB and 41.7% FB is the most elevated contact profile in the projected Cardinals lineup. Against a GB pitcher, Gorman's fly ball tendency gives him the best chance to hit for power if he can make contact.
Guardians
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | 555 | 39.3% | 30.6% | 30.1% |
| Jose Ramirez | 495 | 35.8% | 38.2% | 26.1% |
| Angel Martínez | 323 | 39.3% | 36.5% | 24.1% |
| Kyle Manzardo | 315 | 34.0% | 40.0% | 26.0% |
| Brayan Rocchio | 262 | 45.8% | 26.7% | 27.5% |
| Daniel Schneemann | 250 | 49.6% | 28.8% | 21.6% |
| Bo Naylor | 249 | 33.3% | 42.2% | 24.5% |
| Rhys Hoskins | 176 | 33.0% | 39.8% | 27.3% |
| Austin Hedges | 106 | 31.1% | 46.2% | 22.6% |
| David Fry | 78 | 38.5% | 41.0% | 20.5% |
| Chase DeLauter | 5 | 80.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
Cardinals vs. Williams' 47.6% GB profile: The Cardinals' ground-ball-heavy bats (Herrera 52.6%, Walker 48.9%, Urías 45.1%) are aligned with Williams' strength -- producing exactly the grounders he induces. The fly ball path (Gorman 41.7% FB, Burleson 33.4% FB, Scott 32.0% FB) is the better route to hits, but it requires elevation against a pitcher with elite K% who rarely gives hittable pitches to LHB.
Guardians vs. Liberatore's 39.1% GB profile: Cleveland has a mix of contact types. Schneemann (49.6% GB) and Rocchio (45.8% GB) will produce heavy grounders -- mostly outs, some singles. Ramírez (35.8% GB, 38.2% FB) and Manzardo (34.0% GB, 40.0% FB) have fly ball tendencies that could generate extra base hits. Kwan (39.3% GB, 30.1% LD%) is the line drive threat -- his .557 LD AVG means when he puts it in the air on a line, it lands for a hit. DeLauter's 80% GB in a 5-BIP sample is not meaningful.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams | 167.7 | 173 | 24.6% | 83 | 11.8% | 2.08 |
| Matthew Liberatore | 151.7 | 122 | 18.8% | 40 | 6.2% | 3.05 |
Williams (K/BB: 2.08, K%: 24.6%, BB%: 11.8%): A K/BB ratio below 3.0 is a below-average command marker for an ace-caliber arm. Williams' 11.8% BB% is the structural problem -- he's elite at generating strikeouts but gives back that advantage with consistent walks. In tonight's game, walks to Cardinals RHB who face his more hittable .667 OPS split create scoring opportunities without requiring hard contact. The Cardinals' patient hitters (Fermín 11.4% BB%, Gorman 11.7% BB%, Herrera 9.6% BB%) should be working counts.
Liberatore (K/BB: 3.05, K%: 18.8%, BB%: 6.2%): Liberatore's K/BB is actually the stronger command ratio of the two starters. His 6.2% BB% is efficient -- he will not beat himself with walks. The challenge is a below-average strikeout rate (18.8%), which means Cleveland's contact-first lineup (Kwan 8.7% K%, Ramírez 11.0% K%) will regularly put the ball in play. For Liberatore to succeed, he needs to induce weak contact and keep the ball out of the air when facing Cleveland's line drive threats.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
1. The 5 Cardinals RHB vs. Williams' Vulnerable Half (Section 2D): Herrera, Walker, Urías, Fermín, and Saggese face Williams' .263/.342/.404 career line against right-handed batters -- far more hittable than his .163/.271/.319 vs. LHB. Fermín (.379 OBP vs. RHP, 11.4% BB% from Section 2L) and Herrera (.343 OBP vs. RHP, 9.6% BB%) are the primary on-base candidates. The Cardinals cannot afford to bat LHB-heavy in favorable counts -- the offensive innings require the RHB core to capitalize. Walker (.200/.263/.291 vs. RHP, Section 2C) is the lineup's weakest link and the most likely out in this group.
2. Liberatore's TTO2 Window -- Innings 4-6 (Section 2E): The data is unambiguous: Liberatore allows .310/.360/.511 (.821 OPS) in TTO2 vs. .237/.281/.376 (.613 OPS) in TTO1 -- a +.208 OPS jump. The second time through the order arrives in innings 4-5. With Ramírez (.318/.384/.506 vs. LHP, Section 2C) and Hoskins (.333 AVG/.500 OBP in BvP, Section 2B) seeing Liberatore a second time, the TTO2 window is when Cleveland is most dangerous. Cardinals manager should be watching pitch count and game context aggressively around the 70-75 pitch mark.
3. Hoskins as Liberatore's Toughest Matchup (Sections 2B, 2C): Hoskins carries the strongest documented BvP case against Liberatore: 2-for-6 with 2 BB (.333 AVG, .500 OBP, 8 PA). His career .221/.324/.407 vs. LHP (102 PA, 4 HR) makes him a quality mid-order threat from the right side. If Cleveland slots Hoskins in the 3-4-5 range, his combination of BvP history and platoon data gives him the best statistical odds to produce extra-base damage in this game.
4. Stolen Base Cascade Risk (Section 2I): Ramírez (86.3% SB success, 44 career SB) and Kwan (80.8%, 21 SB) are both prolific and efficient. If either reaches base in a close game, a stolen base attempt is highly probable. Herrera's arm behind the plate becomes a pivotal variable in inning-critical sequences. A stolen base by Ramírez in the 4th or 5th -- during TTO2 -- followed by a Hoskins or Manzardo hit could be the game's turning point.
X-Factor -- Williams' Walk Accumulation: Williams' 20.9% walk rate in 2026 creates a cascading risk even when the Cardinals are not hitting him hard. If Williams walks Fermín and then Herrera in the same inning, a single by Walker or Urías ends the frame. The Cardinals don't need to barrel Williams -- they need patience. At-bats that extend beyond 4 pitches against a high-walk-rate pitcher are productive even when they end in outs.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
• "What is Gavin Williams' career walk rate by season and how does it compare to league average?"
• "How have Cardinals right-handed hitters performed against Cleveland starting pitching historically?"
• "What is Matthew Liberatore's ERA and OPS allowed by inning group (1-3 vs. 4-6)?"
• "Who leads the Cleveland Guardians in stolen base attempts and success rate over the last two seasons?"
• "What is Rhys Hoskins' career OPS vs. left-handed pitching broken down by season?"
• "How does Busch Stadium rank for run scoring and ground ball rates compared to league average?"
• "What are Jose Ramirez's career stats vs. left-handed pitchers in interleague road games?"
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025