YESTERDAY

Washington won the second game of the series last night, 8-5 in 11 innings, scoring four times in the top of the 11th to break a 4-4 tie. José Fermín and Iván Herrera each went 3-for-5 to lead the Cardinals offense, but Pedro Pagés's tying single in the ninth ultimately wasn't enough.

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

NL EAST STANDINGS

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

STARTING PITCHERS

Quinn Mathews takes the ball for St. Louis, carrying a 2-3 record, a 3.62 ERA, and a 1.39 WHIP across 37.1 innings over seven starts. He has struck out 36 and walked 16, posting a 22.2% strikeout rate and a 9.9% walk rate. His 45.2% ground-ball rate is below the league average of 47.0%.

Jake Irvin starts for Washington, where a 2-9 record and a 5.51 ERA across 96.1 innings over 19 starts tell the season's story. Among NL pitchers with at least 60 innings, he ranks 114th of 128 in ERA (5.51; league average 3.93) and 104th of 128 in WHIP (1.41; league average 1.25) -- both figures fall in the poor tier by this season's cutoffs. His walk rate of 10.8% ranks 111th of 128 in that group (league average 8.4%), also poor. The strikeout side is a relative exception: his 22.5% K rate ranks 58th of 128 (league average 22.6%). He has allowed 17 home runs and posted a 42.7% ground-ball rate, which ranks 106th of 128 (league average 48.6%).

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Yesterday's lineup from last night)

Handedness: 6 RHB (Fermín, Herrera, Walker, Saggese, Winn, Pagés), 2 LHB (Church, Scott), 1 SHB (Bernal).

Nationals (Yesterday's lineup from last night)

Handedness: 2 RHB (Crews, Chaparro), 5 LHB (Wood, Lile, Ortiz, Abrams, Vivas), 2 SHB (Ruiz, Nuñez).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Cardinals

Masyn Winn -- 2026-09-08: St. Louis Cardinals activated SS Masyn Winn from the 10-day injured list.

Peter Strzelecki -- 2026-09-16: St. Louis Cardinals activated RHP Peter Strzelecki from the 15-day injured list.

JJ Wetherholt -- 2026-09-16: St. Louis Cardinals activated 2B JJ Wetherholt from the 10-day injured list.

Joshua Báez -- 2026-09-18: St. Louis Cardinals placed LF Joshua Báez on the 10-day injured list. Left oblique strain.

Nationals

Orlando Ribalta -- 2026-09-04: Washington Nationals placed RHP Orlando Ribalta on the 15-day injured list retroactive to September 4, 2026. Right forearm inflammation.

Matt Waldron -- 2026-09-05: Washington Nationals placed RHP Matt Waldron on the 15-day injured list retroactive to September 5, 2026. Chest inflammation.

Matt Waldron -- 2026-09-12: Washington Nationals transferred RHP Matt Waldron from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Chest inflammation.

Richard Lovelady -- 2026-09-12: Washington Nationals activated LHP Richard Lovelady from the 60-day injured list.

Josiah Gray -- 2026-09-17: Washington Nationals activated RHP Josiah Gray from the 60-day injured list.

On the Cardinals side, Joshua Báez went to the 10-day injured list September 18 with a left oblique strain, removing him from left field for today. Masyn Winn and JJ Wetherholt are both back in the picture after returning from the injured list earlier this month -- Winn on September 8, Wetherholt on September 16. Peter Strzelecki was activated September 16 and designated for assignment the same day.

For the Nationals, Josiah Gray returned from the 60-day injured list September 17. Richard Lovelady came off the 60-day injured list September 12 and relieved yesterday. Matt Waldron's chest inflammation has him on the 60-day list after a transfer September 12, and Orlando Ribalta remains on the 15-day list with right forearm inflammation.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

Small sample: Masyn Winn (6 PA), Pedro Pagés (3 PA), Thomas Saggese (3 PA), Victor Scott (2 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA), Iván Herrera (1 PA).

Every career BvP sample in this table is too small to carry signal -- the largest is Masyn Winn's six plate appearances. Three starters today -- José Fermín, Nathan Church, and Leo Bernal -- have no career history against Jake Irvin on file; the matchup is blind for all three. Iván Herrera's single plate appearance produced a walk and nothing more. Victor Scott's two-at-bat line reads .500/.500/1.000, and Thomas Saggese is 0-for-3 with a strikeout, but neither sample is large enough to weigh. Jordan Walker is 0-for-2 with a strikeout. No batter meets both the plate-appearance and batting-average thresholds that would flag a meaningful danger or advantage line. Where this table goes dark, the relevant context is Irvin's 2026 platoon work: he has allowed a .824 OPS against right-handed batters across 170 batters faced this season, compared with .730 OPS against left-handed batters across 256 batters faced -- and six of the nine Cardinals in today's lineup bat right-handed.

No significant bench BvP history.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

No data available for this section.

No Washington Nationals batter in today's lineup has a career plate appearance on file against Quinn Mathews.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs RHP (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.

Jake Irvin is a right-hander who holds left-handed batters to a .730 OPS allowed this season compared with .824 against right-handed batters, so the Cardinals' six right-handed bats step in against his weaker split while the two left-handed hitters -- Church and Scott -- face his stronger one.

Among the six right-handed starters, Jordan Walker leads at .780 OPS vs right-handed pitching across 470 plate appearances, 55th of 227 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching (league average .703). Iván Herrera sits near league average at .709 over 478 plate appearances, 119th of 227. Nathan Church, the left-handed center fielder, carries a .686 OPS vs right-handed pitching across 349 plate appearances, 131st of 227 -- his stronger platoon side, per the season split, and the side Irvin challenges him from today. Pedro Pagés is at .636 over 113 plate appearances, 167th of 227. Masyn Winn and José Fermín trail the group: Winn at .596 over 382 plate appearances, 182nd of 227; Fermín at .592 over 196 plate appearances, 185th of 227. Thomas Saggese is at .617 over 109 plate appearances, 174th of 227.

Victor Scott II, the other left-handed bat, ranks 222nd of 227 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching at .465. Leo Bernal, the switch-hitter batting left against Irvin, has 53 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching in 2026 -- too small a sample to grade.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs LHP (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.

Quinn Mathews is left-handed, and Washington carries five left-handed hitters, two right-handed, and two switch-hitters. The five left-handed bats -- James Wood, Daylen Lile, Abimelec Ortiz, CJ Abrams, and Jorbit Vivas -- face a same-side starter, where their 2026 numbers against left-handed pitching generally run below their overall production.

James Wood's 2026 OPS against left-handed pitching is .825 across 202 plate appearances, ranking 43rd of 158 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs left-handed pitching (league average .735). Wood is stronger against right-handed pitching this season: .955 OPS, compared with .825 OPS against left-handed pitching. Daylen Lile's 2026 OPS vs left-handers is .583 across 169 plate appearances, ranking 140th of 158 in the same pool. Lile is stronger against right-handed pitching this season: .796 OPS, compared with .583 OPS against left-handed pitching. CJ Abrams checks in at .688 across 195 plate appearances vs left-handed pitching in 2026, ranking 95th of 158. Abrams is stronger against right-handed pitching this season: .890 OPS, compared with .688 OPS against left-handed pitching. Abimelec Ortiz's 2026 sample against left-handed pitching is too small to compare (10 plate appearances). Jorbit Vivas's 2026 sample against left-handed pitching sits at 50 plate appearances, below the 60-plate-appearance floor; his 2025 figure of .200/.333/.400 across 6 plate appearances vs left-handers is too small to carry weight.

The two right-handed bats offer a different read. Dylan Crews ranks 41st of 158 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs left-handed pitching in OPS (.829; league average .735) across 133 plate appearances in 2026. Crews is stronger against left-handed pitching this season: .829 OPS, compared with .586 OPS against right-handed pitching. Andrés Chaparro ranks 34th of 158 in the same pool, posting a .849 OPS vs left-handers across 136 plate appearances. Chaparro is stronger against right-handed pitching this season: .923 OPS, compared with .849 OPS against left-handed pitching.

The two switch-hitters bat from the right side against a left-handed starter. Keibert Ruiz ranks 62nd of 158 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs left-handed pitching in OPS (.775) across 94 plate appearances in 2026. Ruiz is stronger against right-handed pitching this season: .781 OPS, compared with .775 OPS against left-handed pitching. Nasim Nuñez ranks 132nd of 158 in the same pool at .602 across 141 plate appearances. Nuñez is stronger against left-handed pitching this season: .602 OPS, compared with .510 OPS against right-handed pitching.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Quinn Mathews (LHP) has faced 42 left-handed batters this season, too small a sample to report split rates reliably. Against right-handed batters, his 2026 line across 120 batters faced produces a .704 OPS allowed -- Quinn Mathews ranks 118th of 239 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs right-handed batters in OPS allowed (.704; league average .703). St. Louis sends six right-handed bats (Fermín, Herrera, Walker, Saggese, Winn, Pagés), two left-handed bats (Church, Victor Scott II), and one switch-hitter (Bernal) against him today.

Jake Irvin (RHP) is stronger against left-handed batters this season: his 2026 line across 256 batters faced yields a .730 OPS allowed -- Jake Irvin ranks 119th of 228 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs left-handed batters in OPS allowed (.730; league average .716). Against right-handed batters, his 2026 line across 170 batters faced yields a .824 OPS allowed -- Jake Irvin ranks 198th of 239 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs right-handed batters in OPS allowed (.824; league average .703). Washington's lineup presents five left-handed bats (James Wood, Daylen Lile, Abimelec Ortiz, CJ Abrams, Jorbit Vivas), two right-handed bats (Dylan Crews, Andrés Chaparro), and two switch-hitters (Keibert Ruiz, Nasim Nuñez). The five left-handed bats face Irvin's stronger split; the two right-handed bats and the two switch-hitters face his weaker side.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Today's game is at Busch Stadium, where Quinn Mathews pitches at home and Jake Irvin is the visiting starter.

The table shows Jake Irvin's home and away splits across 2025 and 2026 combined. His home ERA of 6.58 over 39.2 innings this season ranks 186th of 195 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched at home (league average 3.90). On the road, his 4.76 ERA over 56.2 innings ranks 126th of 183 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched away (league average 4.07). Irvin has been meaningfully worse at home this season.

Quinn Mathews's 2026 home sample of 48 batters faced is too small to compare reliably against his road figure. On the road, his 4.68 ERA over 25.0 innings ranks 123rd of 183 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched away (league average 4.07). Today he pitches at home, where his 12.1 innings of work have produced a 1.46 ERA -- but the sample of 48 batters faced is too small to carry that figure as a stable split.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Jake Irvin has pitched into a third pass in 14 of 19 starts. In the 14 starts he pitched into a third pass, hitters posted a .870 OPS on the second pass -- 126 PA. From the third pass on in those same starts: .597 OPS -- 65 PA. Pooled within-game delta, third pass and beyond minus second pass, survival starts only: -.273 OPS. Early hooks: 5 starts, 43 PA. Per-pass rate stats resting on fewer than 50 PA render as their PA count, never as a decimal; 2026 companion columns carry their own 60 BF floor (below floor renders SSS).

Jake Irvin has pitched into a third pass in 14 of 19 starts. His 2026 first-pass numbers across 172 batters faced: .761 OPS. His 2025 first-pass mark across 300 PA reads .851 OPS -- 272nd of 344 NL pitchers with at least 50 PA in the first pass (league average .734). The second pass is where he is most hittable: 2026, .836 OPS across 169 batters faced. In the 14 starts he pitched into a third pass, the conditional second-pass line reads .870 OPS across 126 PA -- his peak vulnerability window within those games. From the third pass on in those same starts, hitters posted .597 OPS across 65 PA, a .273 OPS drop from the second pass of those same starts. His 2025 third-pass mark of .686 OPS across 192 PA ranks 26th of 84 NL pitchers with at least 50 PA in the third pass (league average .781).

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

All four pitchers here carry full 2026 workloads: Kyle Leahy leads the group at 138.0 innings with a 3.65 ERA and 1.34 WHIP; Michael McGreevy has logged 164.0 innings at a 3.84 ERA and 1.25 WHIP; Riley O'Brien stands at 63.0 innings, 4.14 ERA, 1.30 WHIP; and Gordon Graceffo has thrown 78.1 innings, posting the group's best marks at 2.76 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.

On inherited runners, the 2025 figures show McGreevy stranding all three runners he inherited (100.0%), while O'Brien stranded 70.0% of his 10. Leahy inherited 29 runners and stranded 62.1%; Graceffo inherited 11 and stranded 54.5%. 2025's league average strand rate was 68.8% -- a historical baseline, as the league-level inherited-runner figure is not available in-season.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- WSH

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

2025 GB% types every ball in play; 2026 GO% is the ground-out share of outs in play (GO / (GO+AO), statsapi) -- different measures, both labeled. 2026 GO% reads "SSS" below 50 GO+AO; at or above it the 2026 figure leads and the 2025 GB% is last season's.

Jake Irvin's 2026 ground-ball rate is 42.7%, below the league average of 47.0%; last season he generated ground balls on 45.8% of balls in play across 557 BIP. Against a Washington lineup where every starter cleared the 50 GO+AO floor, 2026 ground-out share leads the contact picture.

Three Nationals hitters sit well above the lineup's ground-out average. Nasim Nuñez leads at 55.1% this season across 243 GO+AO, followed by James Wood at 54.6% (194 GO+AO) and Jorbit Vivas at 52.2% (180 GO+AO). CJ Abrams (41.5%, 265 GO+AO), Dylan Crews (41.8%, 194 GO+AO), and Daylen Lile (38.0%, 316 GO+AO) pull in the other direction; Lile in particular is the lineup's lowest ground-out share.

Last season's batted-ball averages reinforce how the type of contact matters beyond the shape. Against ground balls, Keibert Ruiz (.170) and Abrams (.235) are the hardest outs in the group when Irvin gets a ground ball; Wood (.243) and Crews (.266) are more productive on the ground. Line drives are the equalizer: Abrams (.708 last season), Wood (.713), Ruiz (.704), and Lile (.621) all convert line drives at a high rate, and Irvin's 24.4% LD rate last season means that type of contact reaches these hitters regularly. Andrés Chaparro, Nuñez, and Vivas each have fewer than 50 balls in play in the 2025 sample and carry no publishable rate.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

No data available for this section.

Leo Bernal and Pedro Pagés are both on the Cardinals' active roster. The 2025 battery table carries no record of Quinn Mathews working with either catcher, making today a fresh pairing regardless of which draws the start behind the plate. Bernal bats fourth and Pagés eighth in the projected lineup, which is carried over from last night's 11-inning game and lists both at catcher; only one of them will catch Mathews today.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Washington baserunners. Five Nationals in today's projected lineup have 2026 stolen-base figures on file. Nasim Nuñez leads the group: 46 SB, 10 CS, 82.1% success across 56 attempts. James Wood has 21 SB, 3 CS, 87.5% across 24 attempts. CJ Abrams has 32 SB, 6 CS, 84.2% across 38 attempts. Daylen Lile has 15 SB, 7 CS, 68.2% across 22 attempts. Dylan Crews has 9 SB and 0 CS in 9 attempts -- too small a sample for a rate. Jorbit Vivas has 2 SB and 1 CS in 3 attempts -- too small a sample for a rate. Keibert Ruiz has 2 SB and 1 CS in 3 attempts -- too small a sample for a rate.

Cardinals catchers. Pedro Pagés has thrown out 19 of 60 baserunners in 2026, a 31.7% caught-stealing rate across 77 games. Leo Bernal has allowed 16 stolen bases and caught 3 in 19 attempts -- too few attempts for a reliable rate; Pagés's 31.7% is the season mark for the Cardinals' primary catcher. The projected lineup, carried over from last night's 11-inning game, lists both Bernal (batting fourth) and Pagés (batting eighth) at catcher.

Opponent catcher. Keibert Ruiz has allowed 66 stolen bases and caught 18 in 84 attempts, a 21.4% caught-stealing rate across 97 games. Harry Ford has caught 6 of 30 baserunners, a 20.0% rate across 33 games.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Masyn Winn anchors the infield at shortstop, where his 2025 sample spans 129 games with 64 double plays turned, 3 errors, and a .994 fielding percentage. Pedro Pagés handles catcher in the lower third of the order; his 2025 catcher line covers 110 games, 5 errors, and a .994 fielding percentage. Leo Bernal, listed at catcher fourth in the order, has no 2025 fielding record at catcher on file.

Thomas Saggese draws third base today. His 2025 work at third base covers 18 games with 2 errors and a .939 fielding percentage, a thinner sample than his primary 2025 position at second base (35 games, 4 errors, .973). Jordan Walker is in right field, where his 2025 record runs 108 games, 4 errors, and a .981 fielding percentage.

In the outfield corners, José Fermín is at left field with just 4 games there in 2025, and Victor Scott II is also listed at left field. Scott's 2025 primary outfield record is in center field across 136 games (6 errors, .982), with only 4 games logged in left field. Nathan Church moves to center field today; his 2025 center field record covers 18 games, no errors, and a 1.000 fielding percentage.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

The Cardinals have gone 17-9 against the Washington Nationals across the 2022-2025 stretch, winning each of the four seasons, including a 5-1 mark in 2025.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Jake Irvin is a right-handed starter, and six of the nine Cardinals in this projected lineup bat right-handed. Four of those six are stronger against left-handed pitching than right — José Fermín (.756 OPS vs. LHP, .592 vs. RHP), Iván Herrera (.792 vs. LHP, .709 vs. RHP), Jordan Walker (.891 vs. LHP, .780 vs. RHP), and Masyn Winn (.721 vs. LHP, .596 vs. RHP) all carry splits that favor the opposite hand from Irvin's. Pedro Pagés runs the other way (.636 OPS vs. RHP, .513 vs. LHP), and Thomas Saggese's 2026 sample against left-handed pitching is too small to compare (49 plate appearances; floor 60). Nathan Church bats left and is stronger against right-handed pitching (.686 OPS vs. RHP, .634 vs. LHP), which aligns him with Irvin. Leo Bernal's 2026 sample against left-handed and right-handed pitching is too small to compare (22 and 53 plate appearances; floor 60).

On contact and strikeouts: Jordan Walker's 2026 K% is 25.9%, and his 2025 K% across 396 PA was 31.8% — both columns flag in the table. Pedro Pagés's 2025 K% was 27.5% across 389 PA; his 2026 K% is 26.7% across 206 PA. Thomas Saggese's 2025 K% was 28.1% across 295 PA; 2026 to date: 25.3% across 158 PA. José Fermín strikes out less often than the league average: 13.0% (2026) against 22.1% league-wide. Iván Herrera's 2026 K% is 18.3% across 688 PA.

Nationals

Quinn Mathews is a left-handed starter. The Washington Nationals send five left-handed hitters and two switch-hitters to the plate against him. James Wood is stronger against right-handed pitching this season (.955 OPS vs. RHP, .825 vs. LHP), Daylen Lile is stronger against right-handed pitching (.796 vs. RHP, .583 vs. LHP), CJ Abrams is stronger against right-handed pitching (.890 vs. RHP, .688 vs. LHP), and Nasim Nuñez is stronger against left-handed pitching (.602 vs. LHP, .510 vs. RHP). Dylan Crews is stronger against left-handed pitching (.829 vs. LHP, .586 vs. RHP), which aligns him with Mathews from the right side. Jorbit Vivas's 2026 sample against left-handed and right-handed pitching is too small to compare (50 and 300 plate appearances; floor 60). Abimelec Ortiz's 2026 sample against left-handed and right-handed pitching is too small to compare (10 and 117 plate appearances; floor 60). Andrés Chaparro is stronger against right-handed pitching (.923 vs. RHP, .849 vs. LHP); Keibert Ruiz is stronger against right-handed pitching (.781 vs. RHP, .775 vs. LHP).

On strikeouts: James Wood's 2026 K% is 28.1% across 594 PA — he strikes out more often than the league average (28.1% against 22.1%). His 2025 K% was 32.1% across 689 PA. Keibert Ruiz's 2025 K% was 9.7% across 267 PA; 2026 to date: 10.6% across 340 PA — the table's green flag marks him as a contact outlier in the group. Daylen Lile strikes out less often than the league average: 19.7% (2026) against 22.1% league-wide. Andrés Chaparro's 2025 K% was 30.1% across 73 PA; 2026 to date: 22.9% across 210 PA.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Jake Irvin's 2026 ground-ball rate is 42.7%, below the league average of 47.0%; last season's 45.8% across 557 balls in play leaned toward fly balls (29.3%) and line drives (24.4%) more than a typical starter. The Cardinals' lineup skews toward ground balls against right-handed pitching, so the contact shape here matters: Iván Herrera leads the group at a 2026 GO% of 56.3% (316 GO+AO), with last season's 52.6% GB% reinforcing the tendency; Jordan Walker's 2026 GO% is 48.7% (261 GO+AO), last season's 48.9% GB% in the same range. Masyn Winn (2026 GO% 46.6%, 249 GO+AO; last season 39.6% GB%) and Pedro Pagés (2026 GO% 48.5%, 97 GO+AO; last season 44.9% GB%) add moderate ground-ball contact. Victor Scott's 2026 GO+AO total is below the reporting floor -- last season he put up a 40.2% GB% across 259 BIP. Thomas Saggese's 2026 GO% is 43.5% (69 GO+AO); last season 41.8% GB% across 189 BIP. José Fermín's 2026 GO% is 44.4% (198 GO+AO); his 2025 BIP count of 46 is below the rate floor. Nathan Church's 2026 GO% is 47.3% (239 GO+AO); his 2025 BIP count of 37 is below the rate floor.

Nationals

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

2025 GB% types every ball in play; 2026 GO% is the ground-out share of outs in play (GO / (GO+AO), statsapi) -- different measures, both labeled. 2026 GO% reads "SSS" below 50 GO+AO; at or above it the 2026 figure leads and the 2025 GB% is last season's.

Quinn Mathews's 2026 ground-ball rate is 45.2%, below the league average of 47.0% -- he generates fly balls and line drives at a slightly higher combined share than a typical starter. The Nationals' lineup presents a heavy ground-ball profile against left-handed pitching. James Wood leads the group: his 2026 GO% is 54.6% (194 GO+AO), and last season his 54.6% GB% across 346 BIP confirmed the same pull-down tendency. Dylan Crews similarly ran a 52.7% GB% last season across 207 BIP, with a 2026 GO% of 41.8% (194 GO+AO). Keibert Ruiz posted a 49.3% GB% last season across 227 BIP; 2026 GO% is 42.3% (194 GO+AO). Nasim Nuñez ran a 55.4% GB% last season across 56 BIP, with a 2026 GO% of 55.1% (243 GO+AO). CJ Abrams is a different profile: 42.0% GB% last season across 436 BIP, 2026 GO% 41.5% (265 GO+AO) -- more air contact than the rest of the top of the order. Daylen Lile's 2025 line-drive rate stands out at 33.9% across 257 BIP, with a 2026 GO% of 38.0% (316 GO+AO). Andrés Chaparro's 2025 BIP count of 43 is below the rate floor; his 2026 GO% is 43.0% (86 GO+AO). Jorbit Vivas's 2025 BIP count of 42 is below the rate floor; his 2026 GO% is 52.2% (180 GO+AO).

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

The table above shows Jake Irvin's 2025 workload: 124 strikeouts and 62 walks over 180.0 innings, a 15.8% K%, 7.9% BB%, and a 2.00 K/BB ratio. In 2026, Irvin's strikeout rate is 22.5% (58th of 128 NL pitchers with at least 60 innings, average by the season's cutoff of 20.3%) and his walk rate is 10.8% (111th of 128, poor by the season's cutoff of 10.0%).

Quinn Mathews's 2026 season line through 37.1 innings: 36 strikeouts and 16 walks, a 22.2% K% and a 9.9% BB%. His strikeout rate sits just above the league average of 22.1%; his walk rate runs above the league average of 8.9%.

KEY MATCHUPS

Jake Irvin vs. the Cardinal right-handed bats. Jake Irvin ranks 114th of 128 NL pitchers with at least 60 innings in ERA (5.51; league average 3.93), and St. Louis sends six right-handed batters at him this afternoon. His weaker side this season is against right-handed batters: .824 OPS allowed across 170 batters faced, compared with .730 OPS allowed against left-handed batters across 256 batters faced. Jordan Walker (55th of 227 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs. right-handed pitching) and Masyn Winn (.596 OPS vs. right-handed pitching across 382 PA, 182nd of 227) represent opposite ends of that right-handed group against Irvin. Thomas Saggese carries .617 OPS vs. right-handed pitching across 109 PA (174th of 227).

Quinn Mathews -- second pass. Quinn Mathews's second pass is his weakest stretch this season: .833 OPS allowed, after .613 on the first. In the starts where he reached a third pass, the second-pass figure is .836 OPS allowed across 54 PA. Mathews has pitched into a third pass in 6 of 7 starts. Washington batters seeing him a second time enter his most vulnerable window of the game.

Jake Irvin -- third pass. Jake Irvin has pitched into a third pass in 14 of 19 starts. In those starts, hitters produced .597 OPS against him on the third pass (65 PA) -- well below the .870 OPS they posted in the second pass of those same starts (126 PA). If the Cardinals lineup gets deep enough into Irvin to force a third pass, that window is historically his sharpest.

WATCHLIST

-- Quinn Mathews home split. Mathews has held hitters to a .510 OPS allowed and a 1.46 ERA at Busch Stadium this season, against .765 on the road -- but the home sample is too small to grade (48 batters faced; floor 60).

-- Nasim Nuñez and CJ Abrams baserunning. If either reaches base, the running game is live: Nasim Nuñez is 46-for-56 on steal attempts this season (82.1% success), and CJ Abrams is 32-for-38 (84.2%). Pedro Pagés has thrown out 31.7% of steal attempts in 2026 (19 CS in 60 attempts); Leo Bernal, the other catcher in the projected lineup, has caught 3 of 19. That is the context for any green light Washington's manager chooses to give.

-- Keibert Ruiz contact rate. Ruiz ranks 8th of 169 NL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances in K% (10.6%; league average 21.8%) -- if he bats with runners on, Mathews will need to get him out on contact rather than a strikeout.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Jordan Walker performed against Jake Irvin in their career?

2. How has CJ Abrams performed against Quinn Mathews in their career?

3. How has Masyn Winn performed against Jake Irvin in their career?

4. What were Jake Irvin's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. How did James Wood perform against right-handed pitchers in 2025?

6. What was Kyle Leahy's inherited-runner strand rate in 2025?

7. What are the park factors at Busch Stadium in 2025?