YESTERDAY

Last night's 6-5 loss turned in the 9th inning: Randal Grichuk hit a 2-run go-ahead home run (his 13th) off Riley O'Brien in the top half, sending what had been a 5-4 Cardinals lead the other way, and the Cardinals could not answer in the bottom of the inning. Kyle Leahy opened for St. Louis and threw three clean innings -- 0 earned runs, 4 strikeouts. Masyn Winn hit his 20th double in the 2nd inning, scoring Nolan Gorman and Thomas Saggese (2 RBI), and José Fermín followed with a sacrifice fly to push the lead to 3-0. Nathan Church added an RBI double (his 13th) in the 4th inning to make it 4-1 after Chicago scored once on a bases-loaded walk in the 4th.

Cooper Hjerpe then surrendered a bases-loaded walk in the top of the 4th -- allowing CWS to cut it to 3-1 -- then returned for the 5th and could not record an out, with three more runs scoring before he was removed. His final line: 4 earned runs, 4 walks in 1.0 inning pitched. Leo Bernal's solo home run (his 3rd) in the 8th inning put St. Louis back ahead 5-4, but O'Brien allowed Grichuk's 2-run blast in the 9th. The top four lineup slots -- Fermín (0-for-2), Herrera (0-for-3), Burleson (0-for-4), Báez (0-for-4) -- went hitless in their at-bats, though Fermín and Herrera drew 4 combined walks.

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

AL CENTRAL STANDINGS

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

STARTING PITCHERS

STL: Michael McGreevy (R, 6-9, 3.92 ERA) -- McGreevy takes the mound for the series finale this afternoon with 154.0 innings across 28 starts, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 51.0% ground-ball rate in 2026. His home ERA is 4.06 (71.0 IP) vs. 3.80 on the road (83.0 IP). McGreevy has posted a 9.29 ERA over his last 8 starts since July 28, against a 3.32 ERA before that stretch -- the 3.92 full-season number masks a significant recent shift.

CWS: TBD (R, defaulted) -- The White Sox have not announced a starter. The opponent's throwing hand is defaulted to R for platoon-split queries; hand-specific splits for Cardinals batters today are unverified against the actual arm.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Yesterday's lineup from 2026-09-12)

Handedness: 5 RHB (Fermín, Herrera, Báez, Saggese, Winn), 3 LHB (Burleson, Gorman, Church), 1 SHB (Bernal).

White Sox (Yesterday's lineup from 2026-09-12)

Handedness: 2 RHB (Vargas, Meidroth), 6 LHB (Antonacci, Teel, Murakami, Benintendi, Peters, Montgomery), 1 SHB (Montgomery).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Cardinals

JJ Wetherholt -- 2026-08-30: St. Louis Cardinals placed 2B JJ Wetherholt on the 10-day injured list. Right wrist tendinitis.

Andre Pallante -- 2026-09-04: St. Louis Cardinals activated RHP Andre Pallante from the 15-day injured list.

Masyn Winn -- 2026-09-08: St. Louis Cardinals activated SS Masyn Winn from the 10-day injured list.

White Sox

Davis Martin -- 2026-09-02: Chicago White Sox activated RHP Davis Martin from the 15-day injured list.

Kyle Teel -- 2026-09-04: Chicago White Sox activated C Kyle Teel from the 10-day injured list.

Tommy Pham -- 2026-09-03: Chicago White Sox placed LF Tommy Pham on the 10-day injured list retroactive to September 3, 2026. Left calif strain.

Chris Murphy -- 2026-09-07: Chicago White Sox activated LHP Chris Murphy from the 15-day injured list.

The most relevant Cardinals roster notes for today: Masyn Winn (activated 9/8) is back at shortstop, Andre Pallante (activated 9/4) is back on the active roster, and Leo Bernal -- recalled from Memphis on September 1 -- starts behind the plate. JJ Wetherholt remains on the IL with right wrist tendinitis. For CWS: Kyle Teel (activated 9/4) bats second today. Tommy Pham's IL stint opened outfield playing time for Tristan Peters, who has produced a .831 OPS against right-handed pitching in 395 plate appearances this season.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

Chicago's starter has not been announced, so there is no batter-versus-pitcher history to show for the Cardinals today.

With the opponent starter listed as TBD, no historical batter-vs-pitcher data is available for Cardinals batters today. Today's matchup reads run through the platoon and batted-ball tables, not BVP history.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Small sample: Chase Meidroth (3 PA), Andrew Benintendi (2 PA), Miguel Vargas (2 PA).

The BVP data against McGreevy covers three CWS batters, all at small-sample scale. Andrew Benintendi is 1-for-2 (.500) in 2 career plate appearances against McGreevy; Chase Meidroth is 0-for-3 in 3 plate appearances; Miguel Vargas is 0-for-2 in 2 plate appearances. With no individual reaching 10 plate appearances against McGreevy, this history carries no diagnostic weight today. The platoon and batted-ball tables below are the primary read.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs RHP (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.

Against a right-handed starter (defaulted), Alec Burleson is the Cardinals' most productive bat today. His 2026 slash vs. RHP is .317/.395/.545 (.940 OPS) in 433 plate appearances -- the strongest Cardinals platoon number in the lineup. Iván Herrera has managed a .721 OPS in 459 plate appearances vs. RHP in 2026. Nolan Gorman (.603 OPS in 234 plate appearances vs. RHP in 2026) and Masyn Winn (.598 OPS in 369 plate appearances) represent the weaker side of the Cardinals lineup on this split. The opponent starter's throwing hand is defaulted to R -- these splits are directionally useful but unverified against the actual arm.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs RHP (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.

McGreevy's softer platoon side (vs. LHB) faces 6 left-handed starters in today's projected CWS lineup. For batters above the 60 PA floor in 2026, the 2026 figure leads: Vargas (RHB) .773 OPS in 456 plate appearances vs. RHP; Benintendi (LHB) .748 OPS in 390 plate appearances; Meidroth (RHB) .663 OPS in 431 plate appearances. Teel (LHB) clears the floor in 2026 (71 PA), so his .745 OPS vs. RHP this season leads the read; last season he hit .290/.388/.448 in 245 plate appearances vs. RHP. Colson Montgomery (LHB) hit 17 home runs against right-handed pitching in 201 plate appearances in 2025 (.567 SLG); his 2026 OPS vs. RHP is .675 in 411 plate appearances with a 34.7% strikeout rate. Peters (LHB) had a trivial 2025 sample (10 PA, SSS); his 2026 OPS of .831 in 395 plate appearances leads. Note: the opponent starter's hand is defaulted to R.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

McGreevy's 2026 platoon split is above the 60 BF floor on both sides: 397 batters faced vs. LHB (.751 OPS allowed) and 238 batters faced vs. RHB (.694 OPS allowed). The 2026 gap is real but narrower than the 2025 history -- 190 left-handed batters in 2025 (.318/.368/.543, .911 OPS) vs. 210 right-handed batters (.225/.255/.325, .580 OPS). Both years confirm this as a durable tendency: McGreevy's LHB side is meaningfully weaker than his RHB side. Against today's CWS lineup, which projects 6 LHB starters, the majority of his batters faced will fall on his tougher side.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

McGreevy's home ERA is 4.06 this season (71.0 IP) vs. 3.80 on the road (83.0 IP). The 2025 gap was wider: 5.22 at home (50.0 IP) vs. 3.55 away (45.2 IP). Today's game at Busch Stadium places McGreevy in his historically tougher environment on top of his platoon challenge.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Michael McGreevy has pitched into a third pass in 26 of 28 starts. In the 26 starts he pitched into a third pass, hitters posted a .715 OPS on the second pass -- 234 PA. From the third pass on in those same starts: .773 OPS -- 134 PA. Early hooks: 2 starts, 15 PA. Per-pass rate stats resting on fewer than 50 PA render as their PA count, never as a decimal; 2026 companion columns carry their own 60 BF floor (below floor renders SSS).

McGreevy pitched into a third pass in 26 of his 28 starts this season. In those 26 starts, the conditional TTO analysis shows the order posting a .715 OPS on the second pass (234 plate appearances) and .773 OPS on the third pass (134 plate appearances). The within-game delta (.058 OPS gain from TTO2 to TTO3) is consistent in direction, but the third-pass sample (134 plate appearances) is too small to treat as a reliable rate. The 2026 per-pass pattern aligns: .684 OPS in TTO1 (252 BF), .754 in TTO2 (249 BF), .773 in TTO3 (134 BF). The order gains modest leverage with each pass -- watch when the third turn through the lineup begins, as McGreevy is likely to work into it most outings.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

McGreevy, today's starter, inherited only 3 runners in 2025 -- too few to read. Among Cardinals relievers with meaningful samples, Gordon Graceffo has the lowest inherited runner strand rate at 54.5% -- 5 of 11 inherited runners scored -- well below the 2025 league proxy of 68.8%. Kyle Leahy's 62.1% strand rate (11 of 29 IR scored) is also below the 68.8% league mark. Riley O'Brien's 70.0% strand rate edges above the 68.8% league mark, though his recent performance (3 blown saves in his last 5 appearances) is the more relevant signal today.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- CWS

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

McGreevy is a groundball pitcher -- 49.2% GB rate in 2025 across 307 balls in play, and 51.0% GB rate in 2026. Against today's CWS lineup, Chase Meidroth is the most groundball-friendly matchup: he produced a .279 GB average on a 54.2% GB rate in 371 balls in play in 2025. Miguel Vargas is the key mismatch: he runs a 30.4% GB rate and 43.6% fly-ball rate in 388 balls in play -- a fly-ball hitter against a groundball pitcher who has already allowed 20 home runs this season. Andrew Benintendi's 41.2% fly-ball rate in 318 balls in play follows a similar pattern. McGreevy's value is in suppressing weak groundball contact; the fly-ball-oriented CWS LHBs may force him to work up in the zone.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

Today's scheduled battery pairs McGreevy with Leo Bernal (C, batting 5th), who was recalled from Memphis on September 1. The battery table reflects McGreevy's prior work with Pedro Pagés (14 games, 80.2 IP, 4.24 ERA), Jimmy Crooks (2 games, 8.2 IP), and Yohel Pozo (1 game, 5.2 IP) -- no McGreevy-Bernal partnership history is available in the data. Bernal has caught 74.2 innings this season (10 games) with 11 stolen bases allowed and 2 caught stealing -- below the 20-attempt threshold required for a published caught-stealing rate. His 2026 season line is .311/.367/.556 (.923 OPS) in 49 plate appearances, including a .438 average in 17 RISP plate appearances.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

CWS is active on the bases. Miguel Vargas has posted 18 stolen bases in 20 attempts in 2026 -- a 90.0% success rate above the 10-attempt threshold for a published rate -- making him the primary baserunning threat today. Tristan Peters has added 8 stolen bases in 10 attempts (80.0% success rate, above the threshold). With Leo Bernal catching -- recalled September 1, 74.2 innings behind the plate this season, 2 caught stealing in 13 attempts (below the 20-attempt publishing threshold) -- CWS will likely test the battery early in the game.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Masyn Winn anchors the Cardinals infield at short -- .994 fielding percentage in 129 games at SS (3 errors, 64 double plays in 2025) speaks for itself. McGreevy's groundball game benefits significantly from a reliable middle infield. Nolan Gorman at third base has been rougher: 6 errors in 54 games (.950 Fld%). Thomas Saggese is dependable at second base (.973 Fld% in 35 games, 24 double plays). Nathan Church has been clean in center field (18 games, 0 errors in 2025).

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Head-to-head (2023-2025): The Cardinals went 3-0 against CWS in 2025, 1-2 in 2024, and 2-1 in 2023 -- 6 wins in 9 meetings across those three seasons of available data. This weekend's series is tied 1-1 heading into the finale, with St. Louis winning Game 1 on September 11 (7-3) before last night's 6-5 loss. The series winner takes the three-game set.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Among Cardinals starters today, Nolan Gorman (32.5% K rate in 2026, 280 PA) and Thomas Saggese (26.3% K rate in 2026, 133 PA) carry the highest strikeout risk against any opponent. Alec Burleson (17.1% K, 8.6% BB in 2026) and José Fermín (13.4% K in 2026) are the most contact-oriented. Nathan Church's 2025 sample is small (65 PA); his 2026 K rate of 17.4% in 426 plate appearances is the stronger signal for today.

White Sox

For CWS, Colson Montgomery's 2026 strikeout rate (34.7% in 591 plate appearances) and Kyle Teel's 37.6% in a small 2026 sample (93 PA; his 2025 rate of 25.9% in 297 PA is the steadier signal) are the highest-K LHB names facing McGreevy today. These are potential strikeout targets for a groundball pitcher. Miguel Vargas is the most patient CWS bat: 13.7% walk rate in 644 plate appearances in 2026. Tristan Peters' 2025 K% (58.3% in 12 PA) is trivially small; his 2026 rate of 18.1% in 453 plate appearances is the actionable number.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Iván Herrera is a strong groundball hitter (52.6% GB in 285 balls in play in 2025), which plays well against a groundball-generating pitcher. Nolan Gorman's 41.7% fly-ball rate (199 BIP) represents a power threat from the left side but also a natural groundball-out risk when McGreevy works down in the zone. José Fermín (46 BIP) and Nathan Church (37 BIP) are below the 50 BIP floor for published rates.

White Sox

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

The CWS fly-ball hitters represent the mismatch risk against McGreevy's groundball game. Miguel Vargas' 43.6% fly-ball rate (388 BIP) and Andrew Benintendi's 41.2% rate (318 BIP) are the highest among CWS starters today -- both left-handed bats on McGreevy's tougher platoon side. Chase Meidroth's 54.2% groundball rate (371 BIP) makes him the most favorable contact-type matchup for McGreevy among the CWS starters. Tristan Peters' 5 balls in play in 2025 are below the 50 BIP floor; his rate is not publishable from that sample.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

McGreevy's 2025 K/BB profile (95.2 IP, K% 14.5%, BB% 5.0%, K/BB 2.90) reflects solid command at well below-average strikeout generation. His 2026 full-season line (154.0 IP, K% 16.7%, BB% 6.6%) continues that pattern against a league average of 22.1% K and 8.9% BB. McGreevy is a contact-management pitcher whose value is in limiting free passes and inducing weak contact -- a profile that places significant demands on the defense behind him, particularly with Masyn Winn at short and Alec Burleson at first.

KEY MATCHUPS

The central matchup today is McGreevy's platoon tendency against CWS's left-handed starters. In 2026, McGreevy has allowed a .751 OPS against left-handed batters across 397 batters faced -- his weaker side -- against .694 OPS against right-handers in 238 batters faced. The 2025 history amplified this gap: .911 OPS across 190 left-handed batters in 2025 vs. .580 OPS across 210 right-handed batters. Both years confirm the split as durable.

McGreevy vs. Kyle Teel (L, batting 2nd): Teel's 2026 line against right-handed pitching is .210/.310/.435 (.745 OPS) in 71 plate appearances, above the 60 PA floor, with a 37.6% strikeout rate this season. Last season he hit .290/.388/.448 in 245 plate appearances vs. RHP -- a patient, contact-first profile the 2026 sample has not yet matched. He will see McGreevy at the front of the order multiple times.

McGreevy vs. Colson Montgomery (L, batting 8th): Montgomery hit 17 home runs against right-handed pitching in 201 plate appearances in 2025 (.567 SLG). His 2026 OPS vs. RHP is .675 in 411 plate appearances with a 34.7% strikeout rate -- the power-vs.-strikeout trade-off that defines his matchup with a groundball pitcher. McGreevy's groundball game could neutralize him or give up a home run on an elevated pitch.

Alec Burleson (L) vs. the TBD RHP: On the Cardinals' side, Burleson is the most productive bat in today's split. His 2026 slash vs. RHP is .317/.395/.545 (.940 OPS) in 433 plate appearances. With 22 home runs and 106 RBI on the season, Burleson in an RHP matchup is the Cardinals' primary run-production threat today.

WATCHLIST

The bullpen save situation: Riley O'Brien has blown 3 saves in his last 5 appearances. Last night's go-ahead 9th-inning home run allowed to Randal Grichuk is the freshest example. The Cardinals' broader bullpen has blown 6 saves in the last 15 games -- 30 on the season. If St. Louis leads in the 8th inning, the decisions around who enters in the 8th and 9th are as important as McGreevy's start.

McGreevy's recent form context: McGreevy has posted a 9.29 ERA over his last 8 starts since July 28, against a 3.32 ERA in his prior starts. His full-season 3.92 ERA masks this shift. Watch whether his first time through the CWS order tracks his early-season or recent form -- the 2026 TTO1 OPS allowed (.684) vs. TTO3 (.773) tells you whether CWS gained leverage on each pass, or whether McGreevy held a line.

Miguel Vargas on the bases: Vargas has stolen 18 bases in 20 attempts in 2026 (90.0% success rate, above the 10-attempt threshold). With Leo Bernal behind the plate in his 9th start of the season, CWS will test the battery. Watch for early steal attempts, particularly with Vargas in scoring position.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

McGreevy's platoon (2026): .751 OPS allowed vs. LHB (397 BF) | .694 OPS vs. RHB (238 BF). Six LHB projected in today's CWS lineup.

McGreevy's platoon (2025): .911 OPS vs. LHB (190 PA) | .580 OPS vs. RHB (210 PA). Durable tendency across both years.

TTO watch: McGreevy went into TTO3 in 26 of 28 starts. Conditional TTO2 OPS in those starts: .715 (234 PA). Conditional TTO3: .773 (134 PA). Order gains leverage late.

Burleson vs. RHP (2026): .317/.395/.545, .940 OPS in 433 plate appearances -- the Cardinals' best bat today.

Vargas baserunning (2026): 18 SB in 20 attempts, 90.0% success rate. Bernal: 2 CS in 13 attempts behind the plate (below 20-attempt threshold).

Bullpen alert: 6 blown saves in last 15 games (30 for the season). O'Brien: 3 blown saves in last 5 appearances.

Head-to-head (2023-2025): Cardinals 6-3 vs. CWS across 3 seasons. This weekend tied 1-1 -- today is the series decider.

McGreevy recent: 9.29 ERA over last 8 starts (since July 28) vs. 3.32 ERA before. Full-season 3.92 ERA masks the recent shift.