YESTERDAY

Colorado rallied from a 3-0 deficit with a 6-run fifth inning and a 4-run seventh to beat St. Louis 10-7 last night at Coors Field, with Ivan Herrera (2-for-5, home run, 3 RBI) and Joshua Baez (2-for-4, home run) providing the Cardinals' offensive highlights in the loss.

NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

NL WEST STANDINGS

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

STARTING PITCHERS

Kyle Leahy (RHP, Cardinals): Leahy carries a 10-4 record, a 3.13 ERA, and a 1.31 WHIP across 129.1 innings and 26 starts. He has struck out 118 batters against 38 walks. Among NL pitchers with at least 60 innings, his 3.13 ERA ranks 24th of 108 -- excellent by the season's cutoff of 3.22 -- while his 1.31 WHIP lands at the average cutoff (61st of 108). His ground-ball rate of 52.8% ranks 28th of 108 in that group. He is stronger against right-handed batters this season (.595 OPS allowed, compared with .847 OPS allowed against left-handed batters). Leahy has pitched into a third pass in 21 of 26 starts; his first pass has been his sharpest stretch, with hitters posting a .580 OPS in those 236 batters faced, and his third pass his most vulnerable -- batters have posted a 1.016 OPS across 92 batters faced in the starts he has remained for that long.

Tanner Gordon (RHP, Colorado Rockies): Gordon is 1-4 with a 5.18 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP across 88.2 innings and 8 starts. He has recorded 72 strikeouts against 16 walks. Among NL pitchers with at least 60 innings, his 5.18 ERA ranks 90th of 108 -- poor by the season's cutoff of 4.62 -- and his 1.40 WHIP ranks 88th of 108, also poor (cutoff 1.36). He is stronger against right-handed batters this season (.835 OPS allowed, compared with .884 OPS allowed against left-handed batters). Tonight at Coors Field, the home-park context is notable: Gordon's home ERA stands at 7.26, compared with 2.68 on the road. Gordon has pitched into a third pass in 6 of 8 starts; his first pass has been his weakest stretch this season (.956 OPS across 72 batters faced), with his second pass also taxing (.948 OPS across 71 batters faced in those starts where he was left in long enough to face a third time through).

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Yesterday's lineup from 2026-09-05)

Handedness: 4 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Báez, Saggese), 4 LHB (Torres, Burleson, Gorman, Church), 1 SHB (Bernal).

Rockies (Yesterday's lineup from 2026-09-05)

Handedness: 4 RHB (Norby, Goodman, Beck, Tovar), 3 LHB (McCarthy, Rumfield, Johnston), 2 SHB (Carrigg, Amador).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Cardinals

Ramón Urías -- 2026-08-23: St. Louis Cardinals activated 3B Ramón Urías from the 60-day injured list.

Everson Pereira -- 2026-08-23: St. Louis Cardinals placed RF Everson Pereira on the 10-day injured list. Left hand contusion.

Peter Strzelecki -- 2026-08-26: St. Louis Cardinals placed RHP Peter Strzelecki on the 15-day injured list retroactive to August 26, 2026. Right forearm extensor inflammation.

Blaze Jordan -- 2026-08-28: St. Louis Cardinals placed 3B Blaze Jordan on the 10-day injured list. Left ankle sprain.

JJ Wetherholt -- 2026-08-30: St. Louis Cardinals placed 2B JJ Wetherholt on the 10-day injured list. Right wrist tendinitis.

Andre Pallante -- 2026-09-04: St. Louis Cardinals activated RHP Andre Pallante from the 15-day injured list.

Rockies

Kyle Karros -- 2026-08-23: Colorado Rockies placed 3B Kyle Karros on the 7-day injured list. Concussion.

Tyler Freeman -- 2026-08-23: Colorado Rockies activated RF Tyler Freeman from the 10-day injured list.

Kyle Freeland -- 2026-08-21: Colorado Rockies placed LHP Kyle Freeland on the 15-day injured list retroactive to August 21, 2026. Cervical radiculopathy.

Hunter Goodman -- 2026-08-25: Colorado Rockies activated C Hunter Goodman from the 10-day injured list.

Willi Castro -- 2026-09-02: Colorado Rockies placed 2B Willi Castro on the 10-day injured list retroactive to September 2, 2026. Left heel inflammation.

On the Cardinals side, the infield has taken the heaviest hit. Blaze Jordan (left ankle sprain) and JJ Wetherholt (right wrist tendinitis) are both on the injured list, thinning the depth at third and second base. Ramón Urías was activated from the 60-day injured list on August 23 and returns those positions some cover. Everson Pereira remains out with a left hand contusion, leaving a gap in the outfield. Peter Strzelecki is on the 15-day list with right forearm extensor inflammation. Andre Pallante, activated September 4, is back in the rotation.

Colorado is without Willi Castro (left heel inflammation, retroactive to September 2), costing them a second-base option. Kyle Karros remains on the 7-day list with a concussion, keeping him from third base. Kyle Freeland is on the 15-day list with cervical radiculopathy. Hunter Goodman was activated August 25 and is available behind the plate. Tyler Freeman returned from the 10-day list on August 23 and is active in right field.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

Small sample: Alec Burleson (3 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA), Iván Herrera (3 PA).

Only three Cardinals carry any career BvP history against Tanner Gordon, and every sample is too small to treat as signal -- Alec Burleson (3 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA), and Iván Herrera (3 PA) each fall well short of the 10 AB threshold where career figures begin to carry weight. No batter meets both danger thresholds (10 PA and a .400 average). Jordan Walker's two-plate-appearance line reads .500/.500/1.000, but two at-bats is noise, not a trend. Iván Herrera drew two walks in one plate appearance against him, producing a .667 OBP on a single-plate-appearance basis -- again, too small to lean on. The six Cardinals in tonight's lineup with no history at all against Gordon -- Bryan Torres, Leo Bernal, Joshua Báez, Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese, and Nathan Church -- face him cold.

With BvP essentially a blank slate, tonight's matchup reads through Gordon's 2026 platoon work: he has allowed an .884 OPS against left-handed batters across 222 batters faced, compared with .835 against right-handers. The Cardinals send four left-handed hitters -- Torres, Burleson, Gorman, and Church -- into that weaker side of his split.

No significant bench BvP history.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Small sample: Adael Amador (4 PA), Hunter Goodman (3 PA), Jordan Beck (3 PA), Ezequiel Tovar (2 PA).

Career BvP samples against Kyle Leahy are thin across the Colorado lineup -- four players have history, none with more than 4 plate appearances. Hunter Goodman and Jordan Beck have each gone hitless in 3 at-bats, with Goodman striking out all three times; Beck has struck out twice in his three at-bats. Ezequiel Tovar has gone 1-for-2 with a strikeout. Adael Amador is 1-for-4 with a strikeout. Every sample here is too small to carry predictive weight.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs RHP (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.

Tanner Gordon is stronger against right-handed batters this season (.835 OPS allowed, compared with .884 against left-handed batters). The four left-handed Cardinals -- Bryan Torres, Alec Burleson, Nolan Gorman, and Nathan Church -- face his weaker split tonight. The four right-handed bats meet his stronger side.

Burleson's 2026 OPS of .924 against right-handed pitching across 414 plate appearances leads the group on the season, though he has hit .451 OPS over his last 61 plate appearances since August 20, so the season line overstates where his bat is right now. Church (.671 OPS, 314 PA) and Gorman (.601 OPS, 218 PA) are the left-handed bats struggling in the same matchup, sitting at the table's lower end. Among the right-handed hitters, Jordan Walker checks in at .812 OPS across 434 plate appearances, though Walker is stronger against left-handed pitching this season (.915 OPS vs. .812); tonight he faces Gordon's better split. Iván Herrera (.726 OPS, 436 PA) and Thomas Saggese (.669 OPS, 70 PA) round out the right-handed side. Leo Bernal bats switch and does not appear in this right-handed-pitcher table.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs RHP (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.

Kyle Leahy is a right-handed starter, so the table shows each Colorado batter's numbers against right-handed pitching. Leahy is stronger against right-handed batters this season -- .595 OPS allowed, compared with .847 OPS allowed against left-handed batters -- which shapes how the lineup's three lefties, four righties, and two switch-hitters land against him tonight.

The left-handed bats carry the platoon edge. Jake McCarthy (.789 OPS vs RHP in 2026 across 365 PA) and Troy Johnston (.816 OPS vs RHP in 2026 across 313 PA) both sit above the .731 NL average. TJ Rumfield's 2026 sample vs RHP was not included in the table's rows, but his splits show he is stronger against right-handed pitching this season: .868 OPS, compared with .785 OPS against left-handed pitching. Cole Carrigg bats from either side and is stronger against right-handed pitching this season: .801 OPS, compared with .800 OPS against left-handed pitching -- a negligible gap across 2026.

Among the right-handed bats, Hunter Goodman leads the group: 2026 vs RHP reads .242/.317/.510 across 340 PA, a .842 OPS. His .846 OPS on the season ranks 16th of 163 NL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances and clears the elite cutoff of .842. Connor Norby's 2026 vs-RHP line reads .241/.301/.429 across 215 PA (.698 OPS), and Ezequiel Tovar's reads .222/.278/.400 across 313 PA (.613 OPS). Tovar ranks 155th of 163 NL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances in OPS. Jordan Beck's 2026 sample against right-handed pitching stands at just 71 PA (.091 AVG, .322 OPS); last season against right-handed pitching across 451 PA he slashed .248/.309/.393. Adael Amador's 2026 sample against right-handed pitching is 17 plate appearances -- too small to report split rates reliably; last season across 103 PA against right-handers he slashed .211/.290/.322.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Tanner Gordon enters tonight having allowed a .884 OPS against left-handed batters across 222 BF in 2026, compared with a .835 OPS against right-handed batters across 161 BF. Last season the split ran the other way: .844 OPS against left-handers over 178 PA, compared with .912 against right-handers over 159 PA. St. Louis sends four right-handed bats (Iván Herrera, Jordan Walker, Joshua Báez, Thomas Saggese), four left-handed bats (Bryan Torres, Alec Burleson, Nolan Gorman, Nathan Church), and one switch-hitter (Leo Bernal) against Gordon tonight. The right-handed group faces his .835 OPS-against side; the left-handed group faces his .884 OPS-against side.

Kyle Leahy is stronger against right-handed batters this season: .595 OPS allowed across 257 BF, compared with .847 OPS allowed against left-handed batters across 288 BF. Last season Leahy was also stronger against right-handed batters: .589 OPS allowed over 200 PA, compared with .701 over 163 PA. Colorado's lineup carries four right-handed bats (Connor Norby, Hunter Goodman, Jordan Beck, Ezequiel Tovar), three left-handed bats (Jake McCarthy, TJ Rumfield, Troy Johnston), and two switch-hitters (Cole Carrigg, Adael Amador). The four right-handed bats face Leahy's .595 OPS-against side, 56th of 227 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs right-handed batters; the three left-handed bats face his .847 OPS-against side, 176th of 214 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs left-handed batters.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Kyle Leahy's home-road gap is small: a 2.91 ERA at home this season (54th of 185 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched at home) against 3.38 on the road (58th of 173), with the OPS allowed at .708 at home and .748 away. Tonight's road assignment puts him on the slightly weaker side, but the gap is not the story of this pitching matchup.

Tanner Gordon carries the more extreme split, and it cuts against him tonight. His 2026 ERA at home is 7.26 across 48.1 innings; on the road it is 2.68 across 40.1 innings -- the road figure is the stronger side (.717 OPS allowed on the road vs. .978 at home this season). In 2025 the gap ran the opposite way: a 4.72 ERA at home over 47.2 innings, against a 7.48 ERA in 27.2 innings away. This season Gordon starts in front of his home crowd at Coors Field, where his 2026 numbers have been his least effective context.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Tanner Gordon has pitched into a third pass in 6 of 8 starts. In the 6 starts he pitched into a third pass, hitters posted a 1.018 OPS on the second pass -- 54 PA. From the third pass on in those same starts: 36 PA. Early hooks: 2 starts, 17 PA. Kyle Leahy has pitched into a third pass in 21 of 26 starts. In the 21 starts he pitched into a third pass, hitters posted a .789 OPS on the second pass -- 188 PA. From the third pass on in those same starts: 1.017 OPS -- 92 PA. Early hooks: 5 starts, 29 PA. Per-pass rate stats resting on fewer than 50 PA render as their PA count, never as a decimal; 2026 companion columns carry their own 60 BF floor (below floor renders SSS).

Tanner Gordon has pitched into a third pass in 6 of 8 starts this season. In the 6 starts he was kept in long enough to face the lineup a third time, hitters posted a 1.018 OPS in the second pass on 54 PA -- a signal that the lineup was already tracking him before Gordon reached the inning where he tends to be pulled. His 2026 first pass (72 BF, .956 OPS) and second pass (71 BF, .948 OPS) run close together; last season the gap was wider, with a .982 OPS in the first pass (135 PA) easing to .883 in the second (135 PA) before dropping sharply to .645 in the third (67 PA). The 2026 third-pass sample across his 6 deep starts covers 36 batters faced -- too small to report split rates reliably.

Kyle Leahy has pitched into a third pass in 21 of 26 starts. In those 21 starts -- the only ones that can supply a third-pass number -- the second-pass figure reads .789 OPS on 188 PA; once hitters reached a third pass in those same starts, the OPS rose to 1.017 on 92 PA -- the order-cycle where Leahy is most exposed. His 2026 first pass (236 BF) carries a .580 OPS and his second pass (217 BF) a .765 OPS; the third pass is his weakest this season at 1.016 OPS allowed. Last season's first-pass historical line (355 PA, .645 OPS) shows a similar shape, though the 2025 second-pass sample was only 8 PA -- too small to report split rates reliably.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

Riley O'Brien has stranded 70.0% of his 10 inherited runners in 2025, sitting closest to the league baseline among the four relievers shown. Kyle Leahy has inherited the heaviest load -- 29 runners across 21 entries -- and stranded 62.1% of them. Gordon Graceffo's 54.5% strand rate on 11 inherited runners is the lowest in this group. Michael McGreevy has yet to allow a single inherited runner to score, going 3-for-3 on strands, though his sample is three runners. 2025's league average strand rate was 68.8%, a historical baseline from a proxy measure rather than a live in-season figure.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- COL

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

Kyle Leahy generated ground balls on 44.2% of balls in play last season, well above Tanner Gordon's 36.4% mark from the same year. Against Leahy's ground-ball tendency, the Colorado lineup shows split results: Jordan Beck (.287 GB AVG), Hunter Goodman (.333 GB AVG), and Connor Norby (.218 GB AVG) each have publishable ground-ball figures, while Ezequiel Tovar checks in at .225. Beck and Goodman in particular have done their best damage on line drives -- Beck at .670 LD AVG and Goodman at .674 -- contact shapes that Leahy has historically suppressed with a 27.7% 2025 line-drive rate allowed.

Tanner Gordon ran a higher fly-ball rate (32.6%) and lower ground-ball rate (36.4%) than Leahy last season, setting up a different contact environment for the Cardinals' bats. Adael Amador and Troy Johnston each have fewer than 50 balls in play on file across all batted-ball types, so no rates apply for either; Amador had 30 ground-ball at-bats and 31 fly-ball at-bats, and Johnston had 31 ground-ball at-bats and 22 fly-ball at-bats. Jake McCarthy's ground-ball sample clears the floor (.119 GB AVG over 84 at-bats), while his fly-ball (42 AB) and line-drive (28 AB) samples do not. Norby (.157 FB AVG) and Tovar (.154 FB AVG) both have publishable fly-ball figures against a starter who has allowed fly balls on nearly one in three balls in play.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

Leo Bernal, tonight's scheduled catcher, has no innings on file with Kyle Leahy -- this is a fresh battery pairing. Among catchers with 2025 history alongside Leahy, Pedro Pagés worked the largest sample: 43 games, 62.0 innings, a 3.05 ERA and .225 average against. Yohel Pozo's 13-game, 16.0-inning sample carried the best ERA at 2.25. Iván Herrera logged 3.0 innings with a 6.00 ERA and .308 average against in four appearances but starts at DH tonight rather than behind the plate.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Colorado baserunners. Jake McCarthy leads the Rockies' running game in 2026 with 29 stolen bases against 5 caught stealing (85.3% success rate). Connor Norby has 8 steals and 3 caught stealing this year (72.7%). Ezequiel Tovar has 7 steals and 1 caught stealing in 2026, but his 8 attempts fall below the floor for a publishable rate. Jordan Beck has 2 steals and 1 caught stealing in 2026 -- also below the floor. Troy Johnston has 4 steals and 5 caught stealing this year, below the floor. Hunter Goodman has 5 steals and 4 caught stealing in 2026, below the floor.

Cardinals catcher. Leo Bernal starts tonight. Bernal has allowed 6 stolen bases with 0 caught stealing across 6 attempts in 2026 -- a sample too small to report a caught-stealing rate. Pedro Pagés, the Cardinals' primary catcher this season, has caught 17 of 55 attempts (30.9%) across 498.1 innings in 73 games.

Cardinals baserunners. No Cardinals baserunner in tonight's lineup appears in the 2026 stolen-base table.

Colorado catcher. Hunter Goodman starts tonight at catcher. Goodman has allowed 65 stolen bases against 13 caught stealing across 78 attempts this season, a 16.7% caught-stealing rate over 725.1 innings in 87 games. Brett Sullivan, the Rockies' backup catcher, has allowed 43 stolen bases against 9 caught stealing across 52 attempts (17.3%) over 437.2 innings.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

The table covers 2025 fielding only. Jordan Walker starts in right field tonight with a 2025 line of 108 games, 4 errors, and a .981 fielding percentage at that position. Alec Burleson starts at first base tonight; his 2025 first-base record shows 50 games, 27 double plays, 4 errors, and a .990 fielding percentage. Nolan Gorman draws third base tonight; across 54 games at third in 2025 he posted a .950 fielding percentage with 6 errors and 11 double plays. Thomas Saggese starts at shortstop tonight; his 2025 shortstop record runs 33 games, 7 double plays, 1 error, and a .988 fielding percentage. Nathan Church starts in center field tonight; his 2025 center-field record shows 18 games, no errors, and a 1.000 fielding percentage. Iván Herrera is in the lineup tonight as designated hitter; his 2025 catching record (14 games, 1 error, .989 fielding percentage) does not apply to tonight's role. Joshua Báez starts in left field tonight; no 2025 fielding record for Báez appears in the table, so no defensive figures apply to his start tonight. Bryan Torres starts at second base tonight; no 2025 fielding record for Torres appears in the table, so no defensive figures apply to his start tonight. Leo Bernal starts at catcher tonight; no 2025 fielding record for Bernal appears in the table, so no defensive figures apply to his start tonight.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Over the 2022-2025 stretch, the Cardinals and Colorado Rockies have split the series record unevenly by year: 4-2 in 2022, 3-3 in 2023, 4-3 in 2024, and 2-4 in 2025. The current series at Coors Field enters its finale tied 1-1, with each club having claimed one of the first two games.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Alec Burleson and Iván Herrera are the lineup's most reliable contact bats. Burleson's 2026 K% of 17.2% is below the league average of 22.1%, and Herrera's 2026 K% of 18.2% also sits below that mark. Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker carry the table's heaviest strikeout loads -- Gorman at 33.1% and Walker at 25.2% in 2026 -- though Walker's 2025 figure of 31.8% across 396 PA shows meaningful improvement. Thomas Saggese (2026: 27.8% K%) and Nathan Church (2026: 17.7% K%) round out the group; Church's 2025 sample of 65 PA is too small to anchor a trend, and his 2026 figure is the better read at 401 PA. Tanner Gordon's 2026 strikeout rate of 18.8% is below the league average of 22.1%, which reduces the contact risk for the Cardinals' higher-K hitters tonight.

Rockies

Three Rockies carry K% figures well above the league average of 22.1%: Hunter Goodman at 32.7% in 2026 (507 PA), Connor Norby at 29.0% (321 PA), and Jordan Beck at 30.4% across a 148-PA 2026 sample. Ezequiel Tovar is at 25.5% in 2026 across 455 PA. Jake McCarthy is the lineup's clearest contact bat, at 16.3% in 2026 (510 PA), below the league average of 22.1%. Troy Johnston has lowered his strikeout rate to 17.0% across 412 PA in 2026. Adael Amador's 2026 sample of 30 PA is too small to report split rates reliably; his 2025 figure of 21.1% across 128 PA is on file. On the walk side, most of the Rockies lineup posts BB% figures below the league average of 8.9% -- Goodman at 8.3%, Norby at 10.9%, McCarthy at 5.5%, Tovar at 5.9%, Beck at 6.8%, Johnston at 8.7%. Kyle Leahy's 2026 walk rate of 7.0% is below the league average of 8.9%, limiting free-pass exposure against a lineup that earns walks at a modest rate.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Tanner Gordon generated a 36.4% ground-ball rate against 239 balls in play in 2025, leaving him on the fly-ball side of the ledger. That tendency aligns with Nolan Gorman's profile most directly: Gorman posted a 41.7% fly-ball rate across 199 BIP, the highest in this Cardinals group, against a 30.2% ground-ball rate. Iván Herrera and Jordan Walker run in the opposite direction, each pulling ground-ball rates near or above 49% across sizable samples. Nathan Church's 37 balls in play fall below the floor; no split rates are reported for him tonight.

Rockies

Sample floor is 50 balls in play (PROVISIONAL): below floor renders "--" in the table above -- cite the raw BIP/AB count instead of the rate.

Kyle Leahy generated a 44.2% ground-ball rate against 249 balls in play in 2025, and his 2026 ground-ball rate sits at 52.8% -- above the league average of 47.0%. That tendency fits best against the Rockies' ground-ball hitters: Jake McCarthy ran a 54.5% ground-ball rate across 154 BIP, and Iván Herrera's counterpart on this side, Ezequiel Tovar, posted a 35.3% ground-ball rate across 252 BIP with the lineup's highest line-drive rate at 33.7%. Troy Johnston's 34.6% line-drive rate across 81 BIP stands out similarly. Adael Amador's 82 BIP clear the 50-ball floor; his rates (36.6% GB, 37.8% FB, 25.6% LD) are shown in the table above. TJ Rumfield and Cole Carrigg have no batted-ball data on file, so no split rates are reported for them tonight.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

The 2025 figures in the table reflect Kyle Leahy’s profile as a control-first starter who limits free passes without generating high strikeout volume. Leahy’s 2025 K% of 22.0% and BB% of 7.7% produced a K/BB of 2.86 across 88.0 innings. His 2026 K% sits at 21.7%, ranking 52nd of 108 NL pitchers with at least 60 innings — an average mark against a league figure of 21.9%. His 2026 BB% of 7.0% ranks 33rd of 108, clearing the above-average cutoff of 7.3%; he controls the strike zone more precisely than most NL arms this season.

Tanner Gordon’s 2025 line shows 18.4% K% and a 5.0% BB%, yielding a K/BB of 3.65 across 75.1 innings — a ratio that outpaces Leahy’s despite the lower strikeout rate, driven entirely by Gordon’s exceptional walk suppression. His 2026 K% of 18.8% ranks 72nd of 108 NL pitchers with at least 60 innings, a below-average figure against the league’s 21.9%. The tradeoff is a ground-ball and contact-heavy profile rather than a swing-and-miss one; Gordon gets through lineups by inducing contact, not avoiding it.

KEY MATCHUPS

Kyle Leahy's third-pass cliff. Leahy has pitched into a third pass in 21 of 26 starts this season. When he does, the lineup sees a 1.016 OPS allowed -- up from .580 on the first pass and .765 on the second. Colorado's lineup can plan on facing him a third time, and that is when his numbers say the damage gets done.

Tanner Gordon at home. Gordon's 2026 home ERA is 7.26 -- 183rd of 185 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched at home -- compared with 2.68 on the road, where he ranks 33rd of 173. He is stronger on the road this season (.717 OPS allowed vs. .978 at home), and tonight he pitches at Coors Field, his home park, squarely on his weaker side.

Kyle Leahy vs. the Colorado lineup. Leahy is stronger against right-handed batters this season (.595 OPS allowed, compared with .847 against left-handed batters). Colorado's lineup carries three left-handed hitters (McCarthy, Rumfield, Johnston), four right-handed hitters, and two switch-hitters. The three left-handed bats land on his weaker side. Two of them have hit right-handed pitching well this season: McCarthy at a .789 OPS vs RHP and Johnston at .816, both above the .731 NL average. The four right-handed bats face his stronger side.

Tanner Gordon vs. the St. Louis lineup. Gordon is stronger against right-handed batters this season. The four left-handed hitters St. Louis starts -- Torres, Burleson, Gorman, and Church -- all land on his weaker side. The edge is only as good as the bats carrying it: Burleson has hit right-handed pitching at a .924 OPS this season (though he has faded badly since late August), but Torres (.763), Church (.671), and Gorman (.601) have not, so the platoon advantage runs through the No. 3 spot more than the bottom of the order.

WATCHLIST

-- Kyle Leahy. If Leahy reaches a third pass through Colorado's order, watch for Oliver Marmol to move quickly to the bullpen. The third pass is where Leahy's 2026 numbers turn against him, and those numbers come only from the starts he was left in long enough to face the lineup a third time; the trigger to watch is McCarthy leading off against him for the third time.

-- Jake McCarthy. If Jake McCarthy reaches base, watch for a steal attempt. McCarthy has gone 29-for-34 this season (85.3% success rate), well above the 72.0% break-even threshold. Tonight's Cardinals catcher Leo Bernal has allowed 6 stolen bases in 6 attempts with no caught stealings across 4 games, a sample too small to yield a reliable caught-stealing rate (minimum 20 attempts).

-- Tanner Gordon. Gordon has pitched into a third pass in 6 of 8 starts this season, but the damage against him has come early: his 2026 first-pass OPS-against is .956 across 72 batters faced, his weakest stretch of any start, and his second pass (.948 across 71 batters faced) runs nearly as high. Watch Torres, Herrera, and Burleson in the first two innings -- the top of the order gets Gordon in the passes where he has been most hittable, and Torres and Burleson meet him from the left side, where he has allowed more.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Jordan Walker performed against Tanner Gordon in their career?

2. How has Nolan Gorman performed against Kyle Leahy in their career?

3. How has Hunter Goodman performed against Kyle Leahy in their career?

4. What were Kyle Leahy's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What were Jordan Walker's splits against left-handed and right-handed pitching in 2025?

6. What was Riley O'Brien's inherited-runner strand rate in 2025?

7. What are the park factors at Coors Field in 2025?