NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 85-53 | - | L2 |
| Cubs | 78-60 | 7.0 | W1 |
| Cardinals | 68-70 | 17.0 | L2 |
| Pirates | 67-71 | 18.0 | W2 |
| Reds | 65-73 | 20.0 | L1 |
NL WEST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 82-55 | - | W1 |
| Padres | 73-65 | 9.5 | W1 |
| D-backs | 73-66 | 10.0 | L2 |
| Giants | 57-81 | 25.5 | W2 |
| Rockies | 52-86 | 30.5 | L5 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30 | PIT | Home | L 4-5 |
| Aug 29 | PIT | Home | L 2-6 |
| Aug 28 | PIT | Home | W 4-1 |
| Aug 27 | BAL | Home | W 7-5 |
| Aug 26 | BAL | Home | L 7-8 |
| Aug 25 | BAL | Home | L 1-13 |
| Aug 23 | PHI | Away | L 4-6 |
| Aug 22 | PHI | Away | L 3-12 |
| Aug 21 | PHI | Away | L 6-7 (10) |
| Aug 20 | CIN | Away | W 10-9 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Michael McGreevy (R), Cardinals: McGreevy carries a 5-9 record, 3.86 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 98 strikeouts against 38 walks across 142.1 innings in 26 starts. The surface record undersells a workload story -- he has taken the ball deep into games consistently, reaching a third pass in 24 of 26 starts. The conditional TTO picture (survivorship-adjusted) shows batters posting a .306 OBP/.416 SLG in the second pass during those starts he finished into a third, then a .322 OBP/.441 SLG in the third pass itself -- a within-game delta of roughly flat, suggesting he does not sharply decline as the order cycles. The 51.8% ground-ball rate provides a floor for contact management, and his 6.5% walk rate keeps the running game from expanding his damage. He has pitched into a third pass in 24 of 26 starts.
Eric Lauer (L), Dodgers: Lauer is 8-6 with a 4.78 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 70 strikeouts, and 34 walks across 105.1 innings in 17 starts. The 24 home runs allowed in that span point to a fly-ball profile -- his 35.0% ground-ball rate is well below league norms, and opponents making consistent hard contact in the air explains most of the ERA gap between home (4.29) and away (5.24) settings. The conditional TTO read: in the 16 of 17 starts he reached a third pass, the second pass played to a .292 OBP/.421 SLG (144 PA), then the third pass came in at .297 OBP/.403 SLG (74 PA) -- a slight tightening rather than escalation, with the within-game delta running modestly negative. He has pitched into a third pass in 16 of 17 starts.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (From active roster)
12 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Burleson | 1B | L |
| Torres | LF | L |
| Prieto | 3B | L |
| Herrera | DH | R |
| Walker | RF | R |
| Fermín | LF | R |
| Báez | LF | R |
| Church | CF | L |
| Gorman | 3B | L |
| Pagés | C | R |
| Urías | 3B | R |
| Saggese | LF | R |
Handedness: 7 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Fermín, Báez, Pagés, Urías, Saggese), 5 LHB (Burleson, Torres, Prieto, Church, Gorman).
Dodgers (From active roster)
12 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas | CF | L |
| Call | LF | R |
| Rortvedt | C | L |
| Hernández | 1B | R |
| Freeman | 1B | L |
| Feduccia | C | L |
| Tucker | RF | L |
| Muncy | 3B | L |
| Rojas | 2B | R |
| Betts | SS | R |
| Hernández | LF | R |
| Edman | 2B | S |
Handedness: 5 RHB (Call, Hernández, Rojas, Betts, Hernández), 6 LHB (Thomas, Rortvedt, Freeman, Feduccia, Tucker, Muncy), 1 SHB (Edman).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
Cardinals
Andre Pallante -- 2026-08-18: St. Louis Cardinals placed RHP Andre Pallante on the 15-day injured list retroactive to August 18, 2026. Right elbow inflammation.
Hunter Dobbins -- 2026-08-22: St. Louis Cardinals placed RHP Hunter Dobbins on the 15-day injured list. Right forearm tightness.
Everson Pereira -- 2026-08-23: St. Louis Cardinals placed RF Everson Pereira on the 10-day injured list. Left hand contusion.
Ramón Urías -- 2026-08-23: St. Louis Cardinals activated 3B Ramón Urías from the 60-day injured list.
Peter Strzelecki -- 2026-08-26: St. Louis Cardinals placed RHP Peter Strzelecki on the 15-day injured list retroactive to August 26, 2026. Right forearm extensor inflammation.
Blaze Jordan -- 2026-08-28: St. Louis Cardinals placed 3B Blaze Jordan on the 10-day injured list. Left ankle sprain.
JJ Wetherholt -- 2026-08-30: St. Louis Cardinals placed 2B JJ Wetherholt on the 10-day injured list. Right wrist tendinitis.
Dodgers
Edwin Díaz -- 2026-08-18: Los Angeles Dodgers placed RHP Edwin Díaz on the 15-day injured list. Neck inflammation.
Brock Stewart -- 2026-08-19: Los Angeles Dodgers activated RHP Brock Stewart from the 15-day injured list.
Andy Pages -- 2026-08-22: Los Angeles Dodgers placed CF Andy Pages on the 10-day injured list. Left hand fracture.
Tyler Glasnow -- 2026-08-25: Los Angeles Dodgers activated RHP Tyler Glasnow from the 60-day injured list.
Roki Sasaki -- 2026-08-27: Los Angeles Dodgers placed RHP Roki Sasaki on the 15-day injured list. Right middle finger blister.
On the Cardinals side, the bullpen has taken the heaviest toll: Pallante (elbow), Dobbins (forearm), and Strzelecki (forearm extensor) are all sidelined, thinning the right-handed relief depth heading into this series. Wetherholt's right wrist tendinitis removes him from the middle-infield mix, and Jordan's ankle sprain costs St. Louis a corner-infield bat. Pereira's absence from the outfield corner further compresses the Cardinals' positional options. The one counterweight: Ramón Urías cleared his 60-day rehabilitation and is back on the active roster, giving the staff a versatile infielder who can move across the diamond.
For Los Angeles, the relief picture has also shifted. Edwin Díaz remains on the shelf with neck inflammation, leaving the Dodgers without their primary closer. Roki Sasaki's finger blister adds a rotation question the Dodgers have had to navigate, though Tyler Glasnow's activation off the 60-day IL restores a frontline arm. Brock Stewart is back from his own IL stint and available in the bullpen. Andy Pages is out with a hand fracture, altering the center-field situation for the Dodgers.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramón Urías | 4 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .250 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nolan Gorman | 4 | 4 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Alec Burleson | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Walker | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | 2.000 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Iván Herrera | 2 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .500 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Small sample: Ramón Urías (4 PA), Nolan Gorman (4 PA), Alec Burleson (2 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA), Iván Herrera (2 PA).
Every Cardinals batter in this table has fewer than 10 career PA against Eric Lauer, so nothing here rises above noise. The largest samples belong to Ramón Urías and Nolan Gorman at 4 PA each -- Urías went 1-for-4 (.250/.250/.250) while Gorman is 0-for-4 with two strikeouts (.000/.000/.000). Alec Burleson (2 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA), and Iván Herrera (2 PA) each have a single plate appearance more than a coin flip's worth of data. Walker's 2-PA line shows a home run and a .500/.500/2.000 slash, but one AB is not a tendency. No batter meets both danger thresholds -- none has reached 10 PA against Lauer.
No significant bench BvP history. With the career record this thin across the board, the more informative lens coming in is Lauer's 2026 platoon work against left-handed batters, who make up five of the Cardinals' roster spots today.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker | 8 | 8 | 3 | .375 | .375 | .375 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mookie Betts | 3 | 3 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Freddie Freeman | 3 | 3 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tommy Edman | 3 | 3 | 2 | .667 | .667 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Teoscar Hernández | 3 | 3 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Kyle Tucker (8 PA), Mookie Betts (3 PA), Freddie Freeman (3 PA), Tommy Edman (3 PA), Teoscar Hernández (3 PA).
Career BvP against McGreevy is thin across the board -- all five charted Dodgers have seen him in three or eight plate appearances -- but the direction varies. Kyle Tucker is the standout at .375/.375/.375 in 8 PA (3-for-8, no walks, no strikeouts), the only batter with enough looks to carry even modest weight. Tommy Edman went 2-for-3 with a strikeout, posting .667/.667/1.000 in 3 PA -- a single extra-base hit inflating a three-PA line. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are each 0-for-3 with a strikeout, and Teoscar Hernández is 0-for-3 with no strikeout. At samples this small, the history signals McGreevy has faced this lineup, not that any batter owns or struggles against him; Tucker's eight-PA line is the only figure worth monitoring as a soft lean.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K | 2026 PA | 2026 AVG | 2026 OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 127 | .271 | .310 | .398 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 179 | .220 | .567 |
| Iván Herrera R | 124 | .330 | .455 | .660 | 9 | 19 | 18 | 193 | .237 | .774 |
| Ramón Urías R | 118 | .262 | .322 | .421 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 28 | SSS | SSS |
| Pedro Pagés R | 113 | .243 | .292 | .359 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 87 | .188 | .478 |
| Jordan Walker R | 107 | .255 | .318 | .347 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 155 | .287 | .911 |
| Nolan Gorman L | 93 | .220 | .301 | .439 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 40 | SSS | SSS |
| Thomas Saggese R | 68 | .273 | .279 | .348 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 29 | SSS | SSS |
| Nathan Church L | 14 | .417 | .417 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 78 | .214 | .587 |
| José Fermín R | 11 | .300 | .364 | .400 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 138 | .273 | .796 |
2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.
Eric Lauer is a lefty, which puts St. Louis's five left-handed bats on the exposed side of his platoon splits. Among those LHBs with enough 2026 sample to lead the read, Alec Burleson has hit .220/.567 OPS across 179 PA vs LHP this season, below his 2025 mark (.271/.310/.398, 127 PA). Nathan Church shows similar pressure: 2026 vs LHP is .214 AVG, .587 OPS across 78 PA, against a 2025 figure that carried too few plate appearances (14) to anchor much. Nolan Gorman and the other LHBs below the sample floor (40 PA or fewer vs LHP in 2026) show SSS in the companion columns; Gorman's 2025 baseline was .220/.301/.439 across 93 PA vs LHP.
The Cardinals' seven right-handed bats sit on the more favorable side. Iván Herrera leads the group: 2026 vs LHP is .237 AVG, .774 OPS across 193 PA, and while that trails his gaudy 2025 mark (.330/.455/.660, 124 PA), it remains a productive line against a lefty. Jordan Walker has been the breakout story on this split — 2026 vs LHP: .287 AVG, .911 OPS across 155 PA, well above his 2025 baseline (.255/.318/.347, 107 PA). José Fermín also clears the floor: 2026 vs LHP is .273 AVG, .796 OPS across 138 PA, against a 2025 line of .300/.364/.400 on just 11 PA. Pedro Pagés trails the group — 2026 vs LHP: .188 AVG, .478 OPS across 87 PA, below his 2025 baseline (.243/.292/.359, 113 PA). Ramón Urías and Thomas Saggese are below the 2026 sample floor (28 and 29 PA, respectively); their 2025 figures — Urías at .262/.322/.421 across 118 PA and Saggese at .273/.279/.348 across 68 PA — give some footing but without 2026 confirmation.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K | 2026 PA | 2026 AVG | 2026 OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mookie Betts R | 476 | .257 | .326 | .399 | 13 | 44 | 49 | 288 | .244 | .719 |
| Freddie Freeman L | 452 | .299 | .374 | .500 | 16 | 46 | 86 | 386 | .318 | .891 |
| Teoscar Hernández R | 420 | .246 | .284 | .450 | 19 | 21 | 112 | 278 | .239 | .668 |
| Kyle Tucker L | 404 | .264 | .383 | .465 | 14 | 64 | 57 | 371 | .219 | .662 |
| Alek Thomas L | 381 | .252 | .296 | .377 | 7 | 19 | 102 | 102 | .177 | .541 |
| Tommy Edman B | 255 | .230 | .283 | .352 | 6 | 15 | 39 | 156 | .277 | .735 |
| Alex Call R | 203 | .255 | .380 | .345 | 1 | 28 | 33 | 100 | .226 | .602 |
| Miguel Rojas R | 182 | .238 | .285 | .310 | 1 | 11 | 29 | 73 | .210 | .496 |
| Max Muncy R | 176 | .217 | .256 | .404 | 8 | 6 | 54 | 366 | .254 | .853 |
| Enrique Hernández R | 148 | .203 | .245 | .333 | 4 | 8 | 44 | 15 | SSS | SSS |
| Ben Rortvedt L | 104 | .130 | .223 | .196 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 15 | SSS | SSS |
| Hunter Feduccia L | 84 | .179 | .321 | .239 | 0 | 15 | 18 | 175 | .260 | .725 |
2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). Above that floor the 2026 vs-hand figure leads the read, with 2025 as the historical anchor; below it, 2025 leads.
The Dodgers send six left-handed batters and one switch-hitter (Edman) against McGreevy, giving their lineup a structural edge against a right-hander who has allowed a .755 OPS to left-handed batters across 370 BF this season. Freddie Freeman is the sharpest threat: 2026 vs RHP, .318/.891 across 386 PA, pulling well above his already-capable 2025 mark (.299/.374/.500, 452 PA). Kyle Tucker offers a contrasting look -- 2026 vs RHP: .219/.662 across 371 PA, noticeably softer than his 2025 baseline (.264/.383/.465, 404 PA). Alek Thomas stands out as the most suppressed left-handed bat in the group: 2026 vs RHP, .177/.541 across 102 PA, well below his 2025 baseline (.252/.296/.377, 381 PA).
Among right-handed batters, Max Muncy is the standout: 2026 vs RHP, .254/.853 across 366 PA -- a substantial climb from his 2025 figure (.217/.256/.404, 176 PA). Mookie Betts holds steady; 2026 vs RHP: .244/.719 across 288 PA, close to his 2025 line (.257/.326/.399, 476 PA). Teoscar Hernandez shows modest erosion: 2026 vs RHP, .239/.668 across 278 PA, trailing his 2025 mark (.246/.284/.450, 420 PA). Tommy Edman (switch-hitter) carries a 2026 figure of .277/.735 across 156 PA, ahead of his 2025 baseline (.230/.283/.352, 255 PA).
Three players sit below the 60 PA floor in 2026. Enrique Hernandez has just 15 PA vs RHP this year; his 2025 baseline (.203/.245/.333, 148 PA) is the operative reference. Ben Rortvedt likewise shows 15 PA in 2026; his 2025 line (.130/.223/.196, 104 PA) reflects significant suppression against right-handed pitching. Hunter Feduccia clears the floor at 175 PA: 2026 vs RHP, .260/.725, meaningfully above his 2025 baseline (.179/.321/.239, 84 PA).
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K | 2026 BF | 2026 AVG | 2026 OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Lauer | vs RHB | 296 | .224 | .281 | .419 | .700 | 12 | 75 | 342 | .241 | .755 |
| Eric Lauer | vs LHB | 130 | .234 | .269 | .379 | .648 | 3 | 27 | 106 | .261 | .852 |
| Michael McGreevy | vs LHB | 190 | .318 | .368 | .543 | .911 | 9 | 27 | 370 | .263 | .755 |
| Michael McGreevy | vs RHB | 210 | .225 | .255 | .325 | .580 | 3 | 31 | 216 | .249 | .700 |
Eric Lauer (LHP) vs. the Cardinals' 7-right, 5-left roster: 2026 vs RHB: .241/.295/.460 across 342 BF, already showing more pop than his 2025 baseline (.224/.281/.419, 296 PA) -- the slugging gap is the sharpest shift. The Cardinals' right-side-heavy mix (Herrera, Walker, Fermín, Báez, Pagés, Urías, Saggese) lands in the heavier-contact split, not the softer one. 2026 vs LHB: .261/.352/.500 across 106 BF, worse in every column than his 2025 mark (.234/.269/.379, 130 PA) -- the OBP and SLG jumps are both meaningful. Burleson, Torres, Prieto, Church, and Gorman represent the five left-handed bats Lauer has handled worse in 2026 than he did in 2025.
Michael McGreevy (RHP) vs. the Dodgers' 6-left, 5-right, 1-switch roster: 2026 vs LHB: .263/.316/.439 across 370 BF, a substantial improvement over his 2025 line (.318/.368/.543, 190 PA) -- the AVG is down 55 points and the SLG is down 104 points. The Dodgers' left-handed core (Thomas, Rortvedt, Freeman, Feduccia, Tucker, Muncy) is the side McGreevy has tightened most. 2026 vs RHB: .249/.287/.413 across 216 BF, also improved from his 2025 baseline (.225/.255/.325, 210 PA) -- the OBP and SLG figures have risen but from a low floor, and the right-side mix (Call, Hernández, Rojas, Betts, Teoscar Hernández) registers similar or slightly softer contact. Edman switches and fits either count.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | 2026 IP | 2026 ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Lauer | Away | 256 | 61.0 | 3.10 | 57 | 17 | 9 | 55.0 | 5.24 |
| Eric Lauer | Home | 170 | 43.2 | 2.27 | 45 | 9 | 6 | 50.1 | 4.29 |
| Michael McGreevy | Away | 188 | 45.2 | 3.55 | 24 | 9 | 6 | 71.1 | 3.66 |
| Michael McGreevy | Home | 212 | 50.0 | 5.22 | 34 | 11 | 6 | 71.0 | 4.06 |
Tonight's game is at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, which puts Eric Lauer at home and Michael McGreevy on the road -- a split alignment that favors both pitchers relative to their career norms.
Lauer carries a sharp home/away gap. His 2026 home ERA sits at 4.29 across 50.1 IP, an improvement over his road mark of 5.24 across 55.0 IP. The 2025 baseline reinforces the pattern: a 2.27 ERA at home (170 BF) versus a 3.10 ERA away (256 BF), with the home walk rate (9 BB) less than half the road total (17 BB). Tonight he works the favorable side of that split.
McGreevy's numbers run the other direction. His 2026 away ERA is 3.66 across 71.1 IP, meaningfully better than his 4.06 at home across 71.0 IP. The 2025 picture is starker: a 3.55 away ERA (188 BF) versus a 5.22 home ERA (212 BF, the red-flagged cell in the table). Pitching on the road tonight, McGreevy is on the right side of his own split -- his road profile is the version Cardinals fans prefer to see.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB | 2026 BF | 2026 AVG | 2026 OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Lauer | TTO1 | 226 | .212 | .387 | .648 | 8 | 60 | 14 | 153 | .285 | .906 |
| Eric Lauer | TTO2 | 151 | .210 | .377 | .650 | 5 | 36 | 10 | 147 | .237 | .708 |
| Eric Lauer | TTO3 | 49 | -- | -- | 49 PA | 2 | 6 | 2 | 74 | .239 | .700 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO1 | 154 | .282 | .465 | .792 | 5 | 22 | 8 | 234 | .248 | .692 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO2 | 152 | .271 | .417 | .715 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 231 | .262 | .763 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO3 | 94 | .241 | .379 | .677 | 3 | 22 | 6 | 121 | .270 | .763 |
Eric Lauer has pitched into a third pass in 16 of 17 starts. In the 16 starts he pitched into a third pass, hitters posted a .713 OPS on the second pass -- 144 PA. From the third pass on in those same starts: .700 OPS -- 74 PA. Early hooks: 1 start, 3 PA. Michael McGreevy has pitched into a third pass in 24 of 26 starts. In the 24 starts he pitched into a third pass, hitters posted a .722 OPS on the second pass -- 216 PA. From the third pass on in those same starts: .764 OPS -- 121 PA. Early hooks: 2 starts, 15 PA. Per-pass rate stats resting on fewer than 50 PA render as their PA count, never as a decimal; 2026 companion columns carry their own 60 BF floor (below floor renders SSS).
Eric Lauer has pitched into a third pass in 16 of his 17 starts. The sharpest story in his cycle is first-pass vulnerability: 2026 hitters posted a .906 OPS against him in the first pass (153 BF), dropping to .708 in the second pass (147 BF) and .700 in the third (74 BF). The survival-conditioned read of those deeper passes reinforces the same picture -- in the 16 starts where he was left in for a third pass, second-pass hitters posted a .713 OPS across 144 PA, and third-pass hitters a .700 OPS across 74 PA. His 2025 baseline showed consistent mildness across the cycle: .648 OPS over the first pass (226 PA), .650 over the second (151 PA); the third pass rested on 49 PA, below the rate-stat floor. The 2026 evidence sharpens what 2025 only hinted -- Lauer's biggest exposure window is the lineup's first look, not its third.
Michael McGreevy has pitched into a third pass in 24 of his 26 starts. His cycle profile is notably flat: 2026 hitters posted a .692 OPS in the first pass (234 BF), .763 in the second (231 BF), and .763 in the third (121 BF). Survival-conditioned, the second-pass OPS in the 24 starts he reached a third pass was .722 across 216 PA; third-pass hitters matched that at .764 across 121 PA. His 2025 baseline traced a gentle downward arc -- .792 OPS over the first pass (154 PA), .715 over the second (152 PA), .677 over the third (94 PA) -- yet the 2026 figures show no corresponding fade. McGreevy's workload risk builds volume, not velocity: the exposure is cumulative innings rather than a single vulnerable turn through the order.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% | 2026 IP | 2026 ERA | 2026 WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% | 129.1 | 3.13 | 1.31 |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% | 68.1 | 2.90 | 1.05 |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% | 54.2 | 3.95 | 1.23 |
| Ryan Fernandez | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 20.1 | 3.98 | 1.33 |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% | 142.1 | 3.86 | 1.25 |
League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Among Cardinals relievers who have carried inherited traffic this season, results split sharply. Riley O'Brien leads the group with a 70.0% strand rate (10 IR, 2025), sitting at the lower edge of league average, and his 2026 line of 54.2 IP, 3.95 ERA, 1.23 WHIP reflects steady but hittable work. Kyle Leahy has handled the heaviest inherited load -- 29 runners in 2025 -- stranding 62.1% of them, a tick below league average; his 2026 campaign (129.1 IP, 3.13 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) is the most substantial body of current work in this group. Gordon Graceffo's 2025 strand rate of 54.5% on 11 IR is the second-lowest here, though his 2026 line (68.1 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) is the sharpest ERA/WHIP combination in the table and suggests his run-prevention in open innings has been strong. Ryan Fernandez has allowed 4 of 8 inherited runners to score (50.0% strand rate, 2025), the lowest mark in the group; at 20.1 IP in 2026 his sample is the thinnest. Michael McGreevy has stranded all 3 inherited runners he faced in 2025 (100.0%), though the sample is small; his 2026 workload of 142.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1.25 WHIP is the largest here and reflects a starter's volume.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Lauer | 281 | 30.2% | 40.9% | 27.8% |
| Michael McGreevy | 307 | 49.2% | 25.7% | 24.4% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- LAD
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mookie Betts | .218 | .543 | .096 |
| Alex Call | .229 | .698 | .131 |
| Tommy Edman | .176 | .551 | .056 |
| Hunter Feduccia | .250 | .286 | .118 |
| Freddie Freeman | .289 | .679 | .122 |
| Teoscar Hernández | .214 | .640 | .097 |
| Enrique Hernández | .215 | .657 | .000 |
| Max Muncy | .190 | .586 | .143 |
| Miguel Rojas | .248 | .603 | .058 |
| Ben Rortvedt | .098 | .667 | .125 |
| Alek Thomas | .247 | .762 | .137 |
| Kyle Tucker | .193 | .617 | .126 |
The two starters present opposite contact shapes, and the Dodger lineup's line-drive tendencies make that contrast consequential. Lauer's 2025 profile across 281 BIP ran heavily elevated -- 40.9% fly balls, only 30.2% grounders -- while McGreevy's 307-BIP profile flipped that picture: 49.2% grounders, just 25.7% fly balls. Against a lineup that converts line drives at an exceptionally high rate regardless of who is hitting, the ground-ball orientation McGreevy brings carries real value.
Every Dodger in the table posted a 2025 line-drive average above .540, with Alek Thomas (.762), Alex Call (.698), Freddie Freeman (.679), and Enrique Hernandez (.657) sitting at the extreme end. Fly-ball averages for this group are uniformly suppressed -- Thomas (.137), Freeman (.122), Betts (.096), Edman (.056), Rojas (.058), Enrique Hernandez (.000) -- meaning elevated contact is where Dodger bats go quiet. McGreevy's grounder-heavy profile limits the line-drive opportunities this lineup craves and keeps fly balls scarce, where the damage floor is lowest. Lauer's fly-ball lean works in the opposite direction: it feeds the contact type where the Cardinals' bats do the most harm, while his grounders will be fewer and his elevated balls more numerous against a lineup that punishes anything in between a worm-burner and a laser.
Ground-ball averages for this group cluster in a moderate band -- Freeman leads at .289, with Rojas (.248), Thomas (.247), and Feduccia (.250) behind him -- so McGreevy's grounder profile does not eliminate damage entirely, but it keeps the ball away from the batted-ball type (.540-plus LD AVG across the board) where nearly every Dodger bat becomes dangerous. The matchup shapes as McGreevy pitching to his profile's strength; Lauer pitching into it.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 14 | 80.2 | 4.24 | .266 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 2 | 8.2 | 9.35 | .385 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 1 | 5.2 | 0.00 | .056 | -- | -- |
Jimmy Crooks and Yohel Pozo appear in the 2025 pairing history but are not on the Cardinals' current active roster. Pedro Pagés, tonight's catcher, was McGreevy's primary 2025 partner by a wide margin.
In 2025, McGreevy posted a 4.24 ERA across 80.2 innings with Pagés behind the plate -- 14 games that cover the bulk of his tracked sample. That pairing carries into tonight as the established baseline. The two catchers outside the current roster contributed a combined 14.1 innings in 2025: Crooks in 2 games (8.2 IP, 9.35 ERA, .385 AVG against) and Pozo in 1 game (5.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, .056 AVG against), neither sample large enough to carry a trend. The actionable read is the Pagés pairing, where a 4.24 ERA and .266 opponent AVG over 80.2 innings gives a settled 2025 reference as the battery works through tonight's Los Angeles order.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Dodgers baserunning (2026): Kyle Tucker leads the active roster with 9 steals on 9 attempts (100%). Freddie Freeman has matched that perfect rate on 6 attempts. Tommy Edman adds 5 steals in 7 attempts (71.4%). Alek Thomas is 4-for-4 (100%), and Max Muncy has 2 steals without a caught stealing. Teoscar Hernández is 2-for-3 (66.7%), Alex Call 1-for-2 (50.0%), and Mookie Betts 1-for-3 (33.3%). 2025 baseline: Tucker posted an 89.3% success rate on 28 attempts; Thomas ran at 63.6% on 11 attempts; Betts at 80.0% on 10.
Cardinals catcher -- Pedro Pagés: Pagés has thrown out 17 of 55 baserunners in 2026, a 30.9% caught-stealing rate across 72 games (56 starts).
Dodgers catchers: Hunter Feduccia has allowed 52 steals against 13 caught stealings on 65 attempts in 2026, a 20.0% CS rate over 79 games (66 starts). Ben Rortvedt has 3 caught stealings against 9 steals allowed on 12 attempts across 15 games (9 starts) -- too few attempts for a publishable rate; Feduccia is the contrast point with a full sample on hand.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | C | 110 | 6 | 5 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Ramón Urías | 3B | 78 | 20 | 4 | 0.979 |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 54 | 11 | 6 | 0.950 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 2B | 35 | 24 | 4 | 0.973 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Thomas Saggese | SS | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0.988 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | 28 | 9 | 1 | 0.990 |
| Ramón Urías | 2B | 26 | 7 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Thomas Saggese | 3B | 18 | 0 | 2 | 0.939 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | 2B | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nolan Gorman | 1B | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | 3B | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| José Fermín | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Ramón Urías | 1B | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 1B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
| César Prieto | 2B | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| José Fermín | RF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Pedro Pagés | 2B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
Pedro Pagés anchors the Cardinals backstop, posting a .994 fielding percentage across 110 games at catcher in 2025. Jordan Walker has logged 108 games in right field at .981, and tonight the lineup card places him in RF again. Alec Burleson's 2025 sample shows versatility across three positions — 50 games at first base (.990), 41 in left field (1.000), and 34 in right field (.983) — and tonight he slides to 1B per the lineup card. Nathan Church, slotted at CF tonight, was flawless across 18 games at center in 2025 (1.000 Fld%).
At the corners, Nolan Gorman (3B tonight per the lineup card) carries a .950 mark in 54 games at third in 2025, with 6 errors in that sample. Ramón Urías has covered third base in 78 games at .979 with 20 double plays, though the lineup card does not have him starting at third tonight. Thomas Saggese's 2025 work at second base spans 35 games with 24 double plays at .973; he does not appear on tonight's lineup card. César Prieto, listed at 3B on the lineup card, appeared in just 2 games at second base in 2025 with a .500 fielding percentage on 1 error — his 2025 fielding sample at third is not in the table.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Against the Dodgers from 2022-2025, the Cardinals went 11-15, winning the most recent matchup 4-2 in 2025 after dropping three of the four prior seasons. Tonight opens a three-game set at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% | 2026 PA | 2026 K% | 2026 BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% | 578 | 16.6% | 8.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% | 612 | 18.1% | 10.9% |
| Nolan Gorman | 402 | 136 | 33.8% | 47 | 11.7% | 248 | 32.3% | 10.5% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% | 572 | 24.3% | 7.5% |
| Ramón Urías | 391 | 88 | 22.5% | 27 | 6.9% | 86 | 17.4% | 9.3% |
| Pedro Pagés | 389 | 107 | 27.5% | 19 | 4.9% | 196 | 26.5% | 5.6% |
| Thomas Saggese | 295 | 83 | 28.1% | 16 | 5.4% | 87 | 31.0% | 6.9% |
| José Fermín | 70 | 10 | 14.3% | 8 | 11.4% | 308 | 13.3% | 8.4% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% | 383 | 18.3% | 5.5% |
| César Prieto | 6 | 5 | 83.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 31 | SSS | SSS |
Two Cardinals carry strikeout rates above 25% with meaningful 2026 samples. Nolan Gorman's 2025 K% stood at 33.8% across 402 PA; 2026 to date: 32.3% across 248 PA -- the elevated contact risk has carried over. Jordan Walker's 2025 K% was 31.8% across 396 PA; 2026 to date: 24.3% across 572 PA, a notable step in the right direction but still above the flagged threshold. Pedro Pagés pairs a 2025 K% of 27.5% with a 2025 BB% of 4.9% across 389 PA; 2026 to date: 26.5% K% and 5.6% BB% across 196 PA -- both metrics remain in the flagged range on each side. Thomas Saggese shows a similar profile: 2025 K% of 28.1% and BB% of 5.4% across 295 PA; 2026 to date: 31.0% K% and 6.9% BB% across 87 PA. Nathan Church posted a 2025 K% of 27.7% and BB% of 4.6% across 65 PA; 2026 to date: 18.3% K% and 5.5% BB% across 383 PA -- the strikeout rate has dropped substantially in a much larger current-season sample, though walk rate remains below 6%.
Dodgers
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% | 2026 PA | 2026 K% | 2026 BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mookie Betts | 663 | 68 | 10.3% | 61 | 9.2% | 423 | 11.1% | 7.3% |
| Freddie Freeman | 627 | 128 | 20.4% | 60 | 9.6% | 572 | 16.3% | 10.5% |
| Kyle Tucker | 595 | 88 | 14.8% | 87 | 14.6% | 528 | 18.0% | 12.3% |
| Teoscar Hernández | 545 | 134 | 24.6% | 26 | 4.8% | 391 | 28.1% | 7.9% |
| Alek Thomas | 469 | 122 | 26.0% | 21 | 4.5% | 120 | 22.5% | 3.3% |
| Tommy Edman | 377 | 61 | 16.2% | 19 | 5.0% | 231 | 20.8% | 6.5% |
| Alex Call | 322 | 55 | 17.1% | 36 | 11.2% | 163 | 17.8% | 11.7% |
| Miguel Rojas | 317 | 46 | 14.5% | 24 | 7.6% | 207 | 10.1% | 6.3% |
| Enrique Hernández | 256 | 68 | 26.6% | 18 | 7.0% | 47 | SSS | SSS |
| Max Muncy | 220 | 68 | 30.9% | 10 | 4.5% | 473 | 24.9% | 12.1% |
| Ben Rortvedt | 128 | 23 | 18.0% | 11 | 8.6% | 28 | SSS | SSS |
| Hunter Feduccia | 105 | 29 | 27.6% | 15 | 14.3% | 209 | 24.4% | 9.6% |
The Dodgers present a split picture. Kyle Tucker leads the roster in patience: his 2025 BB% was 14.6% across 595 PA; 2026 to date: 12.3% across 528 PA -- both figures rank among the highest in either lineup. Mookie Betts makes contact at the best rate in either lineup: 2025 K% of 10.3% across 663 PA; 2026 to date: 11.1% across 423 PA. On the other side, Teoscar Hernandez posted a 2025 BB% of 4.8% across 545 PA; 2026 to date: 7.9% across 391 PA -- the walk rate has recovered in 2026 but the 2025 figure was the lowest among Dodgers regulars. Alek Thomas pairs a 2025 K% of 26.0% with a 2025 BB% of 4.5% across 469 PA; 2026 to date: 22.5% K% and 3.3% BB% across 120 PA -- the walk rate has moved lower in the current season. Max Muncy's 2025 K% was 30.9% across 220 PA; 2026 to date: 24.9% across 473 PA -- the strikeout rate has improved with a much larger sample this season. Hunter Feduccia pairs a 2025 K% of 27.6% with a 2025 BB% of 14.3% across 105 PA; 2026 to date: 24.4% K% and 9.6% BB% across 209 PA -- the walk rate has pulled back from an elevated 2025 mark.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Iván Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Ramón Urías | 253 | 45.1% | 29.2% | 25.7% |
| Pedro Pagés | 243 | 44.9% | 30.9% | 24.3% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nolan Gorman | 199 | 30.2% | 41.7% | 28.1% |
| Thomas Saggese | 189 | 41.8% | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| José Fermín | 46 | 37.0% | 32.6% | 30.4% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
| César Prieto | 1 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Cardinals hitters see Lauer tonight, and his 2025 profile leans fly ball: a 40.9% FB rate against a 30.2% GB rate across 281 BIP. Gorman fits that matchup best on the St. Louis side. His 41.7% FB rate across 199 BIP in 2025 makes him the lineup's premier fly-ball hitter, the contact a fly-ball pitcher gives up most. The grounder-heavy bats fit less well. Herrera (52.6% GB across 285 BIP in 2025), Walker (48.9% GB, 231 BIP), and Pagés (44.9% GB, 243 BIP) put the ball on the ground too often to take full advantage.
Dodgers
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mookie Betts | 501 | 34.7% | 37.3% | 27.9% |
| Freddie Freeman | 404 | 44.6% | 28.5% | 27.0% |
| Kyle Tucker | 390 | 35.9% | 36.7% | 27.4% |
| Teoscar Hernández | 352 | 49.1% | 26.4% | 24.4% |
| Alek Thomas | 302 | 55.0% | 24.2% | 20.9% |
| Tommy Edman | 271 | 48.3% | 26.2% | 25.5% |
| Miguel Rojas | 232 | 45.3% | 29.7% | 25.0% |
| Alex Call | 210 | 45.7% | 29.0% | 25.2% |
| Enrique Hernández | 154 | 42.2% | 35.1% | 22.7% |
| Max Muncy | 127 | 49.6% | 27.6% | 22.8% |
| Ben Rortvedt | 85 | 48.2% | 37.6% | 14.1% |
| Hunter Feduccia | 59 | 47.5% | 28.8% | 23.7% |
Dodgers hitters see McGreevy tonight, and his 2025 profile leans ground ball: a 49.2% GB rate across 307 BIP. The Dodgers best equipped to beat that sink are the ones who lift the ball anyway. Betts led Dodgers qualifiers with a 37.3% FB rate across 501 BIP in 2025, Rortvedt was at 37.6% across 85 BIP, and Tucker at 36.7% across 390 BIP. The ground-ball side of the lineup plays into McGreevy's strength. Thomas (55.0% GB, 302 BIP), Edman (48.3% GB, 271 BIP), and Teoscar Hernández (49.1% GB, 352 BIP) put their contact right where his sinker works.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Lauer | 104.2 | 102 | 23.9% | 26 | 6.1% | 3.92 |
| Michael McGreevy | 95.2 | 58 | 14.5% | 20 | 5.0% | 2.90 |
Lauer's 2025 K%/BB% profile (23.9% K, 6.1% BB, 3.92 K/BB across 104.2 IP) reflects a pitcher who misses bats while limiting free passes -- a profile that has not carried over cleanly into 2026, where his season line stands at 15.6% K and 7.6% BB through 105.1 IP. McGreevy posted a 2025 K/BB of 2.90 on a 14.5% K rate and 5.0% BB rate across 95.2 IP -- control-first work with modest swing-and-miss. His 2026 K% (16.7%) ticks up slightly while his BB% (6.5%) remains manageable, suggesting the profile is largely intact even as his workload has grown to 142.1 IP this season.
KEY MATCHUPS
McGreevy vs. Dodger LHBs. McGreevy's 2026 split against left-handed batters sits at .263/.316/.439 (.755 OPS) across 370 batters faced -- his weaker side by a meaningful margin compared to his .700 OPS against right-handers. Six Dodger left-handed bats cycle through that exposure all night. Freeman is hitting .318 with an .891 OPS against right-handers across 386 PA in 2026. Tucker's 2026 mark against them is thinner: a .219 average and a .662 OPS over 371 PA. Freeman is the centerpiece threat against a right-hander with a soft split against left-handed batters.
Lauer vs. Cardinals RHBs. Lauer's 2026 split against right-handed batters is .241/.295/.460 (.755 OPS) over 342 batters faced -- better than the .852 OPS left-handers have posted against him, but seven Cardinals right-handers give St. Louis the volume to pressure that line. Ivan Herrera posted a .330 average against left-handed pitching over 124 PA in 2025, making him the Cardinals' most dangerous platoon bat in the matchup. The park works against St. Louis, though: the game is at Dodger Stadium, and Lauer's 2026 home ERA is 4.29 against 5.24 on the road. Tonight he pitches his better side, which narrows the Cardinals' window.
Jordan Walker vs. Lauer (career BvP). Walker has 1 hit in 2 career at-bats against Lauer, and that hit was a home run -- the only Cardinals batter with a power result in this BvP sample. The sample is too small to weight heavily, but in a lineup without many established BvP advantages against Lauer, Walker is the one name with a hard result on record.
Kyle Tucker vs. McGreevy (career BvP). Tucker is 3-for-8 (.375) in career plate appearances against McGreevy with zero strikeouts -- the Dodgers' most dangerous BvP entry against tonight's Cardinals starter. Tucker has not struck out in any of those 8 trips, which puts additional pressure on McGreevy to execute because Tucker is making contact against him consistently in a small but clean sample.
WATCHLIST
-- McGreevy TTO3 exposure. McGreevy has pitched into a third pass in 24 of 26 starts this season. If he reaches that stretch tonight, the Dodgers' lefty-heavy lineup faces a 2026 third-pass mark of .763 OPS-against across 121 batters faced -- nearly identical to his second-pass figure (.763), meaning the order does not get easier as the night wears on.
-- Lauer first-inning danger. If the Cardinals attack early, watch Lauer's first-pass numbers: he has posted a .906 OPS-against in TTO1 this season across 153 batters faced, driven by a .562 slugging mark and 10 home runs surrendered in that stretch alone. He settles considerably in the second pass (.708), so St. Louis's best window is the opening lineup turn.
-- Kyle Tucker stolen base threat. If Tucker reaches base, watch the running game: he is 9-for-9 stealing in 2026, a perfect mark, while Cardinals catcher Pagés has thrown out 30.9% of baserunners this season on 55 attempts -- a workable rate but one that has not slowed aggressive runners.
-- Cardinals 6-9 lineup production. If the Cardinals trail late, watch whether the bottom of the order can generate a comeback: those slots have posted a .624 OPS since May 2, last in MLB. Against a left-hander the Cardinals cannot easily stack matchups around, the bottom third of the batting order is where the margin disappears.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Nolan Gorman performed against Eric Lauer in their career?
2. How has Freddie Freeman performed against Michael McGreevy in their career?
3. How has Kyle Tucker performed against Michael McGreevy in their career?
4. What are Michael McGreevy's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Alec Burleson's splits against left-handed pitchers in 2025?
6. What is Kyle Leahy's inherited-runner strand rate in 2025?
7. What are the park factors at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025