Player	Pos	Bats
Myers	CF	R
Cruz	SS	S
Suárez	DH	R
Rodríguez	RF	L
Bleday	LF	L
Trevino	C	R
Hayes	3B	R
McLain	2B	R
Toglia	1B	S
Marte	RF	R
Stewart	1B	R
Friedl	CF	L
Stephenson	C	R

Handedness: 8 RHB (Myers, Suárez, Trevino, Hayes, McLain, Marte, Stewart, Stephenson), 3 LHB (Rodríguez, Bleday, Friedl), 2 SHB (Cruz, Toglia).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Reds

Hunter Greene -- 2026-08-02: Cincinnati Reds placed RHP Hunter Greene on the 15-day injured list retroactive to August 2, 2026. Right elbow soreness.

Blake Dunn -- 2026-08-06: Cincinnati Reds transferred CF Blake Dunn from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Right elbow sprain.

Hunter Greene -- 2026-08-11: Cincinnati Reds transferred RHP Hunter Greene from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Right elbow soreness.

Nick Lodolo -- 2026-08-11: Cincinnati Reds activated LHP Nick Lodolo from the 15-day injured list.

Cardinals

No IL transactions in this report.

With Hunter Greene on the 60-day IL and Nick Lodolo recently activated, the Reds' rotation is in flux. Lowder draws the nightcap start.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

Small sample: Jordan Walker (2 PA), Alec Burleson (2 PA).

Two-PA samples for both Walker and Burleson carry no analytical signal. The BvP table is a flag for awareness only: 0-for-2 at this sample size tells us nothing about either hitter's actual matchup profile against Lowder. Lowder's 2026 splits by handedness are the more reliable read here, built on 270 batters faced by left-handers and 153 by right-handers.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

No data available for this section.

Cardinals starter is TBD. No BvP data is available for any Reds batter. Until the starter is confirmed, the Reds' platoon splits against left-handers are the closest available proxy.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). The 2026 column never leads in this section -- 2025 vs-hand always leads, regardless of 2026 sample size.

Burleson (L) is the Cardinals' most dangerous left-handed bat against right-handed pitching: .296/.353/.478 across 419 career PA vs. RHP, with a 2026 companion of .329 AVG and .992 OPS over 362 PA. He bats third tonight and is the primary left-handed threat against Lowder. Lowder allows left-handers a .837 OPS in 270 BF this year — Burleson's career profile falls directly in that zone.

Walker's career row (.200, 289 PA vs. RHP) requires context: his 2026 companion shows .282 AVG and .810 OPS over 377 PA this year. The career figure reflects a prior version of the hitter. The 2025 base column leads per section convention, but the 2026 companion tells the truer current-year story. His season-to-season OPS transformation (+0.255 vs. 2025, p99+ of 16,975 tracked pairs) is the primary angle for tonight.

Church (L) and Crooks (L) show the two weakest career vs-RHP profiles in the lineup: .114 AVG (51 PA) and .108 AVG (38 PA). Both are small-to-moderate samples. Their 2026 companions — Church .234/.637 OPS (272 PA), Crooks .190/.581 OPS (111 PA) — are modestly stronger but still below the league norm.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). The 2026 column never leads in this section -- 2025 vs-hand always leads, regardless of 2026 sample size.

The Cardinals' TBD left-handed starter will face a Reds lineup where career splits vs. LHP are mixed. Bleday (L) shows a .324/.370/.500 career line vs. LHP (73 PA), though his 2026 companion (.200 AVG, .696 OPS, 98 PA) suggests regression from that career figure. Stewart (R) has a career sample of only 7 PA vs. LHP (.286) — too small to lead analytically — but his 2026 overall line (.283 AVG, .887 OPS in 124 PA) provides real-world context the career split cannot.

Suárez (R) is historically weak vs. left-handed pitching: .164 career AVG in 184 PA, with his .453 SLG indicating power potential on contact. His 2026 companion: .186 AVG, .688 OPS (80 PA). Myers (R) at .286 career vs. LHP (117 PA) is the most reliable right-handed profile in this group. Stephenson (R) at .246/.378 OBP (74 PA) reflects a patient approach against left-handers; his 2026 companion (.179 AVG, .593 OPS, 72 PA) is weaker.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

No data available for this section.

No pitcher platoon data in this report's dedicated section. Lowder's 2026 splits by batter handedness: vs. LHB .266/.361/.476 (.837 OPS, 270 BF); vs. RHB .266/.309/.343 (.652 OPS, 153 BF). Cardinals starter TBD; no Cardinals-side platoon data available.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

No data available for this section.

No pitcher home/away data in this report's dedicated section. Lowder's 2026 home (3.06 ERA, 198 BF) and away (7.23 ERA, 225 BF) splits are from in-season data. The home/away gap is the most significant pitching context for tonight.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

No data available for this section.

No TTO data for the Cardinals' TBD starter. Lowder's 2026 TTO splits:

TTO1 (first pass): .247/.325/.432, .757 OPS (163 BF) — TTO2 (second pass): .285/.369/.431, .800 OPS (150 BF) — TTO3 (third pass): .297/.333/.432, .765 OPS (78 BF).

Lowder's OPS allowed rises from TTO1 to TTO2 (+.043) and stays elevated but stable into TTO3 (-.035 from TTO2). He does not dramatically deteriorate as lineups see him repeatedly. The TTO2 window (second pass through the order) is his most vulnerable, though the difference vs. TTO3 is small at this sample size.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

League-average inherited runner strand rate: 68.8%. O'Brien (70.0%, 10 IR) is the only Cardinals reliever above that threshold. Leahy (62.1%, 29 IR) is the highest-volume arm and sits below league average — a relevant variable given the TBD starter scenario, which may call on him early. Graceffo (54.5%, 11 IR) is the largest downside outlier in the group. McGreevy's 100.0% strand rate on 3 IR is too small a sample to weight.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)

No data available for this section.

Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- CIN

Pitcher batted ball data is unavailable for both starters. Among Reds hitters, the highest line-drive averages belong to Stephenson (.733, 170 BIP), Marte (.704, 240 BIP), and Myers (.702, 222 BIP) — all three convert line drives into hits at a very high rate relative to this group. McLain (.306 GB AVG, 325 BIP) and Stewart (.286 GB AVG, 35 BIP) are the most productive groundball hitters in the projected pool. Toglia (.172 GB AVG, 163 BIP) is the least productive on grounders, while Myers (.016 FB AVG) and Stewart (.000 FB AVG) essentially never convert fly balls into hits.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

No data available for this section.

No battery-pairing data available. Cardinals starter is TBD. Tonight's Cardinals battery: TBD starter (L) with Jimmy Crooks (C). Reds' catcher options from active roster: Tyler Stephenson (100 attempts, 18 CS, 18.0% CS rate — publishable) and Jose Trevino (27 attempts, 5 CS, 18.5% CS rate — publishable).

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

The Reds carry significant stolen-base volume across their projected lineup. McLain (18 SB, 2 CS, 90.0%) and Myers (18 SB, 5 CS, 78.3%) lead the group; both operate at the top of Cincinnati's order and represent meaningful first-inning concerns. Friedl (12 SB, 80.0%) and Hayes (12 SB, 80.0%) add secondary running depth; Marte (10 SB, 76.9%) rounds out the five most active base-stealers. Toglia's 100.0% rate is based on 3 attempts — small-sample noise.

Jimmy Crooks catches tonight. His 2026 season totals: 13 attempts, 1 CS — below the 20-attempt minimum required to publish a caught-stealing rate in this report. Rate withheld; raw counts provided for context. Pedro Pagés holds a published 31.5% CS rate (54 attempts) for comparison, but he is not starting tonight. The Reds' top runners enter this game having been caught at rates ranging from 10.0% (McLain) to 23.1% (Myers) against all catchers this year.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Masyn Winn is the anchor of tonight's defensive profile: .994 Fld% at shortstop across 129 games with 64 double plays turned — his DP total is notable context for a Reds lineup with significant groundball-heavy hitters (Hayes 49.5% GB, Marte 48.8% GB). Alec Burleson at first base (50G, 27 DP, .990 Fld%) is a reliable infield partner. Nathan Church (1.000 Fld%, 18G in CF) and Jimmy Crooks (1.000 Fld%, 14G at C) show clean records in limited samples. Burleson's three-position defensive footprint (1B, LF, RF) reflects roster flexibility; his primary position tonight is first base. Church has 7 games in right field with a 0.833 fielding percentage, a different role from the one he holds now.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Head-to-Head: STL vs. CIN (Recent Seasons)

2025: 7-6 (STL)  |  2024: 6-7 (CIN)  |  2023: 7-6 (STL)  |  2022: 12-7 (STL). St. Louis has won the season series in three of the past four years in this dataset; the 2022 result (12-7 STL) is the most decisive in either direction over that span. The teams split the 2024 series in Cincinnati's favor.

Tonight's game is the nightcap of a split doubleheader and Game 2 of a five-game series at Great American Ball Park. Rhett Lowder's 2026 home ERA (3.06, 198 BF) is from in-season pitcher data, not a dedicated ballpark-effects dataset.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

League-average K%: 22.1%. League-average BB%: 8.9%. Walker's 2025 base K% (31.8%, 396 PA) has improved to 24.0% in 2026 (512 PA). Burleson remains the most contact-consistent bat in tonight's lineup (14.5% K%, 7.2% BB% in 2025 base; 16.3%/8.6% in 2026). Crooks's 2025 K% (37.0%, 46 PA) is a small sample; his 2026 figure (31.5%, 127 PA) still leads the lineup in strikeout rate and represents the most contact-vulnerable spot in the order.

Reds

Toglia (39.2% K%, 337 PA) and Suárez (29.8% K%, 657 PA) carry the highest historical strikeout rates among the Reds' projected pool — both profiles favor a Cardinals pitcher willing to work in the zone and miss bats. Suárez's 2026 K% (35.7%, 367 PA) is even higher than his career figure. Bleday is the most patient bat in the Reds' order: 14.3% BB% in 398 2026 PA — a significant walk rate that a Cardinals starter (TBD) will need to manage early. Trevino (12.9% K%, 302 PA in 2025 base) is the most contact-oriented hitter on the roster list; the 2025 figure leads here because his 2026 sample is 99 PA. Stewart's career column (58 PA) is a small sample; his 2026 line (532 PA, 22.0% K%, 10.0% BB%) provides the more actionable context.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Cardinals batted ball data is 2025. Iván Herrera (52.6% GB, 285 BIP) and Nathan Church (67.6% GB, 37 BIP — small sample) are the most groundball-dependent hitters in the lineup. Jimmy Crooks (44.4% FB, 27 BIP) has the highest fly-ball rate in this group; his sample is small (27 BIP). Against Lowder, whose LHB OPS-against is .837 (270 BF), left-handed hitters have more room — Crooks's fly-ball contact profile is worth watching in that specific matchup.

Reds

Reds batted ball data is 2025. Suárez (41.4% FB, 343 BIP) and Bleday (41.1% FB, 202 BIP) are the most fly-ball-reliant hitters in the projected pool. Cross-referenced with Section 2G, both show low fly-ball averages (.077 and .084 FB AVG respectively), meaning their fly-ball contact tends to become outs — their BIP profile favors the defense on that contact type. Hayes (49.5% GB, 410 BIP), Marte (48.8% GB, 240 BIP), and Trevino (48.3% GB, 236 BIP) are the most groundball-dependent hitters — relevant context for Masyn Winn's high double-play total (64 DP, 129G at SS).

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

No data available for this section.

No pitcher K%/BB% data available. Cardinals starter is TBD. Lowder has 77 strikeouts and 40 walks across 94.1 IP in 2026; per-nine rates are not available for this split.

KEY MATCHUPS

Burleson and the Left-Handed Block vs. Lowder's Handedness Split

Lowder's most significant 2026 vulnerability is against left-handed batters. He has allowed a .266/.361/.476 line (.837 OPS) against LHB across 270 BF this year. Against right-handed batters, that compresses to .266/.309/.343 (.652 OPS, 153 BF) — a controlled, productive matchup for him. The Cardinals send four left-handed bats against him tonight: Wetherholt (1), Burleson (3), Church (6), and Crooks (8).

Burleson is the primary threat. His career vs-RHP line shows .296/.353/.478 (419 PA), and his 2026 companion registers .329 AVG and .992 OPS over 362 PA against right-handed pitching. He bats third and entered yesterday's game hitting .288/.355/.494 with 21 HR and 90 RBI. His RISP numbers — .353 AVG, .946 OPS in 154 PA — make him the most complete bat in the high-leverage spots.

Wetherholt leads off and brings a patient left-handed approach (.243/.350/.376, 535 PA in 2026). Church bats sixth while in a prolonged slump (0.477 OPS since July 4, 121 PA). Crooks hits eighth; his career vs-RHP data (.108, 38 PA) and 2026 companion (.190, 111 PA) reflect genuine vulnerability at the plate, even as Lowder is theoretically more hittable on the left side.

Reds' Running Game vs. Crooks and the TBD Starter

Cincinnati carries the most active base-stealing operation in tonight's matchup. McLain (18 SB, 2 CS, 90.0% in 2026) and Myers (18 SB, 5 CS, 78.3%) operate at or near the top of the Reds' order and will look for opportunities against a catcher whose arm has limited recorded data this year. Friedl (12 SB, 80.0%), Hayes (12 SB, 80.0%), and Marte (10 SB, 76.9%) add secondary running depth.

Jimmy Crooks catches tonight with 13 attempts and 1 CS on the season — below the 20-attempt minimum for a publishable CS rate in this report. For context: the Cardinals' other regular catcher, Pedro Pagés, holds a 31.5% rate in 54 attempts (publishable). The matchup places Cincinnati's most aggressive runners against a catcher whose 2026 arm record is too thin to quantify. The Cardinals' TBD starter will also be a variable — pitchers with slower deliveries or who work out of the stretch often facilitate stolen-base attempts.

WATCHLIST

Nathan Church's Extended Slump and Tonight's Opportunity

Church bats sixth tonight and enters with an OPS of 0.477 across 121 PA since July 4 — down from 0.726 in the period before that cutoff. He went 0-for-4 yesterday afternoon (1 BB). His 2026 lineup table entry shows .233/.278/.355 overall, a below-average line for a starting center fielder.

The one contextual offset: Lowder allows left-handed batters a .837 OPS in 270 BF this year. Church is left-handed. If he makes contact against Lowder and stays out of double-play groundballs (Church is a 67.6% GB hitter in 37 BIP, small sample), the matchup is theoretically favorable. Whether he can take advantage of it is the variable. His walk-base approach (0-for-4, 1 BB yesterday) at least keeps him out of productive-out territory.

TBD Cardinals Starter and Bullpen Depth

St. Louis has not named a starter for tonight's nightcap. Whichever arm takes the mound, the Cardinals' bullpen will carry meaningful load in a game that follows a day game just hours earlier. Available arms from the data:

Riley O'Brien (3.08 ERA, 49.2 IP, 70.0% inherited runner strand rate, 10 IR) — the bullpen's cleanest recent ERA and the only arm above the 68.8% league-average strand rate. Gordon Graceffo (3.26 ERA, 60.2 IP, 54.5% strand rate, 11 IR) — below average on inherited runners. Kyle Leahy (3.38 ERA, 117.1 IP — 1.47 ERA over his last 9 starts since June 23) — the rotation's most encouraging recent arm; if pitching the nightcap, this is the most favorable bullpen outcome. Michael McGreevy (3.48 season ERA, 132.0 IP — 11.68 ERA over his last 4 starts since July 28) — season ERA conceals a difficult recent stretch. Availability for all arms depends in part on Game 1 usage.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

Cardinals starter: TBD (L). Starter not named as of this report.
Reds starter: Rhett Lowder (R) — 4-8, 5.15 ERA, 94.1 IP, 77 K, 40 BB, 1.48 WHIP, 18 GS (2026).
Lowder home ERA (2026): 3.06 (198 BF). Away ERA: 7.23 (225 BF).
Lowder vs. LHB (2026): .266/.361/.476, .837 OPS (270 BF).
Lowder vs. RHB (2026): .266/.309/.343, .652 OPS (153 BF).
Lowder TTO1 (first pass): .247/.325/.432, .757 OPS (163 BF).
Lowder TTO2 (second pass): .285/.369/.431, .800 OPS (150 BF).
Lowder TTO3 (third pass): .297/.333/.432, .765 OPS (78 BF).
Cardinals catcher (tonight): Jimmy Crooks — 13 attempts, 1 CS (rate withheld, below 20-attempt minimum).
Reds catchers: Tyler Stephenson: 100 att, 18 CS, 18.0% (publishable). Jose Trevino: 27 att, 5 CS, 18.5% (publishable).
Cardinals record: 63-61, W2 streak, WC Rank 6, 3.5 WC GB.
Reds record: 59-64, L2 streak, Div Rank 5.
Jordan Walker 2026: .284/.344/.495, 512 PA, 24 HR, 88 RBI. RISP: .326 AVG, 1.034 OPS (154 PA).
Alec Burleson 2026: .288/.355/.494, 521 PA, 21 HR, 90 RBI. RISP: .353 AVG, .946 OPS (154 PA).
Walker OPS trend: 0.584 (2025 full season) → 0.838 (2026 through 124 team games), +0.255 delta, p99+ of 16,975 season pairs.
Head-to-head (recent): 2025: 7-6 STL  |  2024: 6-7 CIN  |  2023: 7-6 STL  |  2022: 12-7 STL.
Doubleheader: Nightcap of today's split doubleheader (Game 2).