Player	Pos	Bats
Bregman	3B	R
Kelly	C	R
Swanson	SS	R
Happ	LF	S
Triantos	2B	R
Busch	1B	L
Conforto	DH	L
Amaya	C	R
Hoerner	2B	R
Ramírez	2B	S
Crow-Armstrong	CF	L
Suzuki	RF	R
Taylor	LF	R

Handedness: 8 RHB (Bregman, Kelly, Swanson, Triantos, Amaya, Hoerner, Suzuki, Taylor), 3 LHB (Busch, Conforto, Crow-Armstrong), 2 SHB (Happ, Ramírez).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Cubs

Gavin Hollowell -- 2026-07-31: Chicago Cubs placed RHP Gavin Hollowell on the 15-day injured list. Right shoulder inflammation.

Clay Holmes -- 2026-08-03: Chicago Cubs placed RHP Clay Holmes on the 60-day injured list.

Ben Brown -- 2026-08-03: Chicago Cubs transferred RHP Ben Brown from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Neck strain.

Clay Holmes -- 2026-08-08: Chicago Cubs activated RHP Clay Holmes from the 60-day injured list.

Cardinals

No Cardinals players appear on the injured list in today's pre-game report.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

Small sample: Alec Burleson (6 PA), Jordan Walker (4 PA), Masyn Winn (3 PA).

Three Cardinals starters have career plate appearances against Holmes — all small samples. Masyn Winn leads with a .667 average in 3 PA. Alec Burleson is 2-for-6 (.333 AVG). Jordan Walker has gone 0-for-4 with 2 strikeouts. The remaining six starters — JJ Wetherholt, Iván Herrera, Lars Nootbaar, Jimmy Crooks, Nolan Gorman, Nathan Church — have no career plate appearances against Holmes in the historical sample.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Small sample: Nico Hoerner (9 PA), Pete Crow-Armstrong (8 PA), Carson Kelly (6 PA), Tyrone Taylor (7 PA), Michael Busch (5 PA), Michael Conforto (4 PA), Miguel Amaya (1 PA).

Among Cubs regulars with a meaningful career sample, Nico Hoerner owns the clearest edge: .375/.444/.500 in 9 PA against Liberatore, with zero strikeouts. Ian Happ has walked 4 times in 10 plate appearances (.500 OBP) while posting a .667 slugging mark (1 HR); his on-base ability is the threat regardless of batting average. Michael Busch is 2-for-5 with a home run (.400 AVG, 1.200 SLG). Pete Crow-Armstrong is .286 with a .571 SLG in 8 PA. Dansby Swanson (.200 AVG, 11 PA) and Seiya Suzuki (.111 AVG, 10 PA) have each struggled in the career matchup. Miguel Amaya (1 PA) is too thin to interpret.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). The 2026 column never leads in this section -- 2025 vs-hand always leads, regardless of 2026 sample size.

Holmes's ability to hold left-handed batters to a .681 OPS (376 PA, 2025) frames the Cardinals' structural challenge: six of today's nine starters bat left. Alec Burleson is the most reliable left-handed bat against right-handed pitching in this group — .296/.353/.478 across 419 PA in 2025, with a 2026 OPS of .976 in 354 PA. Nathan Church (.114 AVG, .182 SLG in 51 PA vs. RHP in 2025) and Jimmy Crooks (.108 AVG, .132 OBP in 38 PA; .542 OPS in 107 PA in 2026) are the most concerning entries at the bottom of the order.

Note: JJ Wetherholt, Lars Nootbaar, and Nolan Gorman do not appear in this table — no qualifying historical sample vs. right-handed pitching in the dataset. Their absence reflects the available data, not a roster oversight.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). The 2026 column never leads in this section -- 2025 vs-hand always leads, regardless of 2026 sample size.

Nico Hoerner is the most punishing right-handed bat against left-handed pitching in this group: .369/.396/.539 across 149 PA in 2025. Alex Bregman is .319/.421/.434 (133 PA). Pete Crow-Armstrong presents a split worth noting: his career vs-LHP line is .188 AVG (188 PA) but his 2026 mark is .306/.934 in 175 PA — the current-year number is the operative figure for today. Seiya Suzuki brings a .317 AVG and 1.002 OPS in 122 PA this season against left-handers.

Michael Conforto's 2026 vs-LHP sample is 7 PA (SSS; below the 60-PA floor). His historical 78-PA line (.246/.372/.385) provides context, but treat it as reference only. Michael Busch at .207 AVG historically against LHP is a favorable matchup for Liberatore among Chicago's left-handed bats.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Holmes carries nearly identical platoon splits in 2025: .681 OPS vs. left-handers (376 PA), .671 OPS vs. right-handers (332 PA). The 2026 data sharpens the gap somewhat — .683 OPS for LHB, .497 OPS for RHB — but both figures remain well controlled. The Cardinals' three right-handed starters (Iván Herrera, Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn) hold a marginal platoon edge that the historical data does not strongly support.

Liberatore's primary exposure is against right-handed batters: .730 OPS in 515 PA (2025), .806 in 379 BF in 2026. Chicago's roster is predominantly right-handed. His vs-LHB numbers are softer historically (.758 OPS, 133 PA) but his 2026 LHB line (.926 OPS, 121 BF) is elevated — both splits are above league average against him.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Liberatore is the road arm at Wrigley this afternoon. His 2025 away ERA was 4.03 (76.0 IP); in 2026 that figure stands at 5.13 across 54.1 innings away from Busch Stadium. His home and away splits have converged this year (5.13 vs. 5.16 ERA), indicating a pitcher struggling on both sides of the ledger. Holmes shows negligible split between home (2.78 ERA in 2026) and away (2.91 ERA in 2026).

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Holmes runs in the opposite direction: his TTO profile shows a modestly elevated TTO2 (.748 OPS, 2025) that falls back in TTO3 (.611 OPS). The Cardinals are unlikely to reach a third time through given Holmes's inning totals (56.2 IP in 10 GS). His 2026 TTO3 (53 BF) is below the 60-BF floor and is published as SSS; the 2025 baseline is the operative figure.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

The Cardinals bullpen's inherited-runner profile matters this afternoon if Liberatore exits with men on base. Riley O'Brien leads the listed group with a 70.0% strand rate (10 IR, 3 scored) — just above the 68.8% league average. Kyle Leahy has stranded 62.1% of 29 inherited runners, below league average on the most exposure. Gordon Graceffo is the most concerning entry: 54.5% strand rate across 11 inherited runners. Michael McGreevy's 100.0% mark is over only 3 inherited runners — too few to draw conclusions from.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)

Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- CHC

Holmes generates ground balls at 56.7% — well above the league average of 47.0%. That profile suppresses extra-base contact and plays to his advantage against a Cardinals lineup not top-heavy with power. Liberatore is the inverse: a 39.1% GB rate and 31.3% FB rate in 2025, giving the Cubs' fly-ball capable hitters more air to work with. Among Chicago's regulars, Pete Crow-Armstrong produces fly balls at a 40.7% rate (2M table, 398 BIP) and Seiya Suzuki at 38.4% (375 BIP) — both elevated, both right-handed bats facing a left-handed pitcher at Wrigley Field this afternoon.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

Jimmy Crooks is behind the plate for Liberatore this afternoon — only the third start in this pairing (2G, 11.0 IP, 2.45 ERA, .225 AVG allowed). The partnership is still new. Pedro Pagés, who has caught Liberatore in 15 games (75.2 IP, 3.93 ERA) — the primary pairing by volume — is not in today's projected lineup. Yohel Pozo (12G, 63.2 IP, 4.10 ERA) is a prior-team reference; Pozo is not on the current Cardinals active roster.

Crooks's caught-stealing rate is withheld: he has 13 attempts in 2026, below the 20-attempt minimum required to publish a rate. Chicago fields three high-volume base stealers who will test that gap this afternoon.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Cubs 2026 Stolen Base Activity

Catcher Caught Stealing (2026)

The Cubs running game is the active threat on the basepaths this afternoon. Pete Crow-Armstrong leads with 35 stolen bases (8 CS, 81.4% success). Nico Hoerner has 29 SB (6 CS, 82.9%). Dansby Swanson is 20-for-23 (87.0%). Tyrone Taylor adds 12 SB (2 CS, 85.7%). All four operate above an 80% success threshold. With Jimmy Crooks catching and his caught-stealing rate unpublished (13 attempts, below the 20-attempt minimum), the Cubs will have tactical incentive to run aggressively.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

The Cardinals' infield defense is reliable at the key positions. Masyn Winn at shortstop has played 129 games with a .994 fielding percentage (3 errors, 64 double plays — that DP total is directly relevant given Holmes's 56.7% ground-ball rate; grounders through Winn's zone have a productive history). Alec Burleson at first base is .990 across 50 games (27 DP, 4 errors). Nathan Church in center field has been errorless in 18 games (1.000). Jimmy Crooks has made no errors in 14 games behind the plate.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Wrigley Field is a hitter-friendly environment — open air, historically favorable wind conditions in the summer months, and shorter power alleys that reward fly-ball contact. Liberatore's batted-ball profile (39.1% GB rate, 31.3% FB rate in 2025) makes the park alignment a live factor; a pitcher who allows more fly balls than ground balls pitches into the wind's favor when it blows out.

Series History (STL vs. CHC)

St. Louis and Chicago have split the last four full seasons 2-2 in series outcome. The Cubs took 2025 (8-5) and 2023 (8-5); the Cardinals won 2024 (7-6) and dominated 2022 (13-6). This three-game set opens the 2026 chapter of the rivalry with Chicago 10 games above .500 and St. Louis 13.5 behind the division-leading Brewers.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Note: JJ Wetherholt, Lars Nootbaar, and Nolan Gorman are not shown -- historical K%/BB% sample unavailable. Jimmy Crooks (37.0% K rate, 0.0% BB rate in 46 PA vs. RHP, 2025) and Jordan Walker (31.8% K rate) are the highest-strikeout entries in the Cardinals lineup today.

Cubs

Against Holmes (18.2% K rate, 9.3% BB rate in 2025), the Cardinals' most favorable discipline matchups are Alec Burleson (14.5% K, 7.2% BB historically) and Iván Herrera (18.7% K, 9.6% BB). Jimmy Crooks presents the sharpest mismatch at the bottom of the order: a 37.0% K rate with a 0.0% BB rate against right-handed pitching in 2025, and a 32.0% K rate in 122 PA in 2026. Jordan Walker has cut his K rate from 31.8% to 24.4% in 2026 — improvement worth noting, though he remains a high-strikeout bat.

On the Chicago side, Nico Hoerner is the contact anchor: a 7.6% K rate across 649 PA (2025), 8.8% in 2026 — both well below the 22.1% league average. He will put the ball in play against Liberatore. Pete Crow-Armstrong's walk rate (4.5% historically, 12.0% in 2026) shows meaningful growth in 2026; his increased patience at the plate changes his profile relative to the 2025 baseline.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Note: JJ Wetherholt, Lars Nootbaar, and Nolan Gorman are not shown -- batted ball profile sample unavailable. Jimmy Crooks's fly-ball rate (44.4%, 27 BIP) is an outlier in the Cardinals lineup; most of the group runs in the 30-40% FB range.

Cubs

Holmes generates ground balls at 56.7%. Among Cardinal hitters today, Iván Herrera (52.6% GB rate, 285 BIP) and Jordan Walker (48.9% GB, 231 BIP) profile as the most ground-ball-prone; that tendency works against them facing a ground-ball pitcher with Masyn Winn playing behind him at short (64 DP in 129 games). Alec Burleson at 42.0% GB and 33.4% FB is better balanced. Jimmy Crooks's fly-ball rate (44.4%, 27 BIP) is elevated but the sample is small.

Liberatore's 39.1% GB rate gives the Cubs' fly-ball capable hitters more air. Pete Crow-Armstrong (40.7% FB, 398 BIP) and Seiya Suzuki (38.4% FB, 375 BIP) are best positioned to capitalize. Hoerner's 28.4% FB rate and 45.9% GB rate mean his batted-ball profile points toward ground contact — consistent with his career 0-strikeout line against Liberatore.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

Liberatore's 3.05 K/BB ratio (2025) reflects genuine command — he competes in the zone and rarely walks hitters (6.2% BB rate, well below the 8.9% league average). Holmes's 1.95 K/BB ratio (66 BB in 165.2 IP) is less efficient; his higher walk rate (9.3%) is the gap in his profile. Both pitchers post K rates (18.2% and 18.8%) below the 22.1% league average, meaning both rely on contact management rather than swing-and-miss. For Liberatore, efficient contact management worked in TTO1; the TTO2 breakdown shows what happens when the lineup adjusts.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Primary angle — the second time through the order: Liberatore's TTO2 split (.871 OPS in 2025, .785 in 2026 across 202 BF) is the game's central swing factor. The fourth inning is the inflection point. If the Cubs can maintain plate discipline into their second look, the order flip is where this game gets made. If Liberatore navigates TTO2 and reaches the sixth, the game looks substantially different. The bullpen's inherited-runner profile (Leahy at 62.1% strand rate, Graceffo at 54.5%) means any men-on-base exit carries real cost.

Hoerner vs. Liberatore: Nico Hoerner is the Cubs' most dangerous hitter in this matchup on a per-at-bat basis. He is 3-for-8 with a walk against Liberatore, has never struck out against him in 9 career plate appearances, and owns a 7.6% K rate league-wide (2025). His ground-ball profile (45.9% GB rate) is consistent with his contact-heavy approach. He will put the ball in play and he will see Liberatore twice.

Happ's patience against Liberatore: Ian Happ has drawn 4 walks in 10 career plate appearances against Liberatore (.500 OBP) and hit a home run. His on-base ability is the threat; his switch-hit profile gives him a left-handed stance against a lefty. His walk rate above league average (13.1% BB in 2025) plays well against a pitcher who lives in the zone.

Burleson vs. Holmes: The Cardinals' clearest career edge. Burleson is 2-for-6 career (.333) and brings a 2026 OPS of .976 against right-handed pitching (354 PA). He is the Cardinals' most reliable structural matchup against Holmes today, even with the small BvP sample. His 14.5% K rate (2025) is favorable against a pitcher who strikes out 18.2% of opponents.

Crow-Armstrong on the bases: 35 stolen bases (81.4% success) and a catching situation where the rate is unpublished (Crooks, 13 attempts). That mismatch is a live tactical factor throughout the game. Hoerner (29 SB, 82.9%) and Swanson (20 SB, 87.0%) add volume to the threat.

Holmes vs. a left-heavy lineup: Six of St. Louis's nine projected starters bat left-handed. Holmes held left-handers to a .681 OPS in 376 PA (2025) — a favorable platoon alignment. The Cardinals' three right-handed bats (Herrera, Walker, Winn) are the structural openings in this matchup; Walker's 2026 OPS of .803 against right-handed pitching (369 PA) is the most promising of the three given his improvement this season.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

Who's catching? Jimmy Crooks (C, bats L). Pedro Pagés is not in today's projected lineup.

CS rates today: Crooks (STL, starting): 13 attempts — rate withheld (below 20-attempt minimum). Pagés (STL, not starting): 31.5% CS (54 att, publishable). Kelly (CHC): 23.3% (60 att). Amaya (CHC): 31.0% (29 att).

Liberatore's danger window: TTO2 — .871 OPS allowed in 2025 (252 PA), .785 in 2026 (202 BF). Watch the fourth inning.

Holmes vs. left-handers: .681 OPS in 376 PA (2025). Six Cardinals starters bat left-handed today.

Cubs to watch on bases: Crow-Armstrong (35 SB, 81.4%), Hoerner (29 SB, 82.9%), Swanson (20 SB, 87.0%), Taylor (12 SB, 85.7%).

BvP leaders: Hoerner vs. Lib: .375/.444/.500 (9 PA, 0 K). Happ vs. Lib: .500 OBP (4 BB in 10 PA, 1 HR). Busch vs. Lib: .400/.400/1.200 (5 PA, 1 HR). Burleson vs. Holmes: .333 (6 PA). Winn vs. Holmes: .667 (3 PA).

Park context: Wrigley Field. Liberatore is the road arm with a 5.13 ERA away in 2026 (54.1 IP). His 39.1% GB rate (2025) is below average in a fly-ball-favorable environment.

Trend flags: Cardinals have won 3 of their last 3 series (Aug 3–12). Soriano has blown 3 saves in his last 5 appearances (Aug 2–11). Pagés not starting; .441 OPS over last 98 PA since May 3.