Player	Pos	Bats
Bohm	3B	R
Marsh	LF	L
Cruz	RF	R
Harper	1B	L
Stott	2B	L
Hill	CF	R
Sosa	LF	R
Stubbs	C	L
Realmuto	C	R
Crawford	CF	L
Schwarber	DH	L
Arraez	2B	L
Turner	SS	R

Handedness: 6 RHB (Bohm, Cruz, Hill, Sosa, Realmuto, Turner), 7 LHB (Marsh, Harper, Stott, Stubbs, Crawford, Schwarber, Arraez).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Phillies

Garrett Stubbs -- 2026-07-28: Philadelphia Phillies activated C Garrett Stubbs from the 10-day injured list.

No Cardinals injuries or IL activity in the past 14 days. Nootbaar and Gorman appear in the projected lineup (based on 2026-08-09 source) but are not in the active roster pool used to populate season statistics; their slash lines and RISP figures show as unavailable in the lineup table above.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

No data available for this section.

Andrew Painter carries no retro ID in the historical database, so no career batting-versus-pitcher data is available for Cardinals hitters against him. Tonight's approach is driven by Painter's 2026 season profile — a 6.48 ERA, a first-pass-through-the-order OPS of .976 against (127 BF), and a vs-LHB line of .847 OPS in 212 BF — rather than by any career matchup pattern.

Bench note: No bench batting-versus-pitcher history against Painter in the 2025 sample.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

No data available for this section.

Hunter Dobbins has 5 major-league starts in 2026. No career batting-versus-pitcher data for Phillies hitters against Dobbins is available in the 2025 sample. Both lineups enter tonight without historical BvP grounding — profile and split data drive the matchup analysis throughout.

Bench note: No bench batting-versus-pitcher history against Dobbins in the 2025 sample.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). The 2026 column never leads in this section -- 2025 vs-hand always leads, regardless of 2026 sample size.

Andrew Painter is a right-hander, so all Cardinals splits shown are vs RHP. Alec Burleson leads the Cardinals' RHP matchup: his 2025 vs-RHP line is .296/.353/.478 (419 PA). His 2026 companion shows .326 AVG and .969 OPS (345 PA), confirming improvement year-over-year on the right-handed side. Iván Herrera posted .268/.343/.399 vs RHP in 2025 (328 PA); his 2026 companion is .245/.722 OPS (362 PA). Jordan Walker's 2025 vs-RHP baseline was .200/.263/.291 (289 PA) — a weak historical mark — with a 2026 companion of .281 AVG and .803 OPS (361 PA), showing meaningful improvement.

With 6 left-handed batters in tonight's projected lineup facing a right-hander who has allowed .847 OPS to left-handed hitters in 2026 (212 BF), the Cardinals' LHB side carries the most favorable split context. Nathan Church (51 PA in 2025 vs RHP) and Jimmy Crooks (38 PA) have thin 2025 baselines; their 2026 companions lead on volume but remain thin samples in context.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

2026 companion columns: sample floor is 60 PA vs this hand (below floor renders SSS in the table above). The 2026 column never leads in this section -- 2025 vs-hand always leads, regardless of 2026 sample size.

Dobbins throws right-handed, so all Phillies splits shown are vs RHP. Luis Arraez leads the table in contact: .304/.341/.410 vs RHP in 2025 (471 PA), with a 2026 companion of .325 AVG and .810 OPS (347 PA). Brandon Marsh's .300 AVG vs RHP (337 PA) makes him the second contact threat in this group. Kyle Schwarber brings .541 SLG against right-handers in 2025 (448 PA) despite a 27.2% K rate — power even when the contact is intermittent. Trea Turner's 2025 vs-RHP line is .295/.346/.455 (434 PA), a steady production profile.

Dobbins' 2025 vs-LHB OPS was .746 (124 PA) vs .683 vs RHB (132 PA) — left-handed batters were historically the harder matchup. The 2026 companion columns reverse this: .623 OPS vs LHB (91 BF, above floor) and .853 vs RHB (78 BF, above floor). The 2025 data leads for section context per the platoon rules, suggesting the left-handed side of the Phillies order (Arraez, Schwarber, Stott, Harper, Marsh) poses the larger challenge historically.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Dobbins' 2025 platoon split shows a modest left-handed-batter edge: .746 OPS vs LHB (124 PA) versus .683 vs RHB (132 PA). The 2026 companion columns reverse this pattern — .623 OPS vs LHB (91 BF, above the 60-BF floor) and .853 vs RHB (78 BF, above floor). The 2025 data leads for prose context per section rules, and it suggests left-handed batters have historically been the harder matchup for Dobbins. The directional shift in 2026 warrants attention: if the early-2026 pattern holds, the Phillies' seven left-handed batters (Arraez, Schwarber, Stott, Harper, Marsh, Stubbs, Crawford) are now the easier side for Dobbins to manage. Both years together point to an evolving split worth watching tonight.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Tonight is a home start for Dobbins at Busch Stadium. His 2025 home ERA was 2.61 (38.0 IP, 158 BF) — a substantial advantage over his 2025 road ERA of 4.70 (23.0 IP, 98 BF). The 2026 away ERA is 3.43 (21.0 IP, above the 20-IP floor shown in the table). His 2026 home ERA does not yet meet the 20-IP floor (19.0 IP, reads SSS in the table), so the 2025 home ERA of 2.61 is the primary signal. Tonight's home environment is Dobbins' historically dominant context by a wide margin.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Dobbins' 2025 times-through-the-order profile shows clear escalation in opponent success: .578 OPS in the first pass (116 PA), rising to .813 in the second (105 PA), and .855 in the third (35 PA). The first pass is his dominant context — .208 average against, 21 strikeouts in 116 PA, and a .302 slugging percentage. The second and third passes show meaningful vulnerability: opponents slugged .480 in the second pass and .484 in the third, with OPS figures that approach those of a hitter-friendly environment. All three 2026 TTO buckets are below the 60-BF floor (45, 45, and 21 BF across his 5 starts), so the 2025 pattern is the operative reference.

The opponent contrast sharpens the picture: Andrew Painter's 2026 TTO pattern runs opposite to Dobbins. Painter's first pass results (.976 OPS, 127 BF) are his worst; his numbers improve through the second pass (.873 OPS, 121 BF) and third (.653 OPS, 48 BF). When both starters reach the second pass through the order tonight, Dobbins becomes harder to manage as Painter becomes easier — a mid-game fork that shapes innings 4 through 6.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

League average strand rate (2025): approximately 68.8%. Riley O'Brien is the only arm in this section above that threshold: 70.0% (10 IR entries, 3 scored). Kyle Leahy's 2025 strand rate is 62.1% (29 IR entries, 11 scored) — below average despite a strong 2026 season (3.45 ERA, 112.1 IP, 1.34 WHIP). Gordon Graceffo's 54.5% (11 entries, 5 scored) is the most exposed inherited-runner profile in this group. His 2026 numbers are appealing (3.04 ERA, 56.1 IP, 1.10 WHIP), but the 2025 strand rate is a risk signal when entering with runners already on base. Michael McGreevy's 100.0% strand mark (3 IR entries) is too small a sample to anchor analysis; the 2026 season IP and ERA (126.0 IP, 3.64 ERA) reflect his primary starter role.

Lead with 2026 season lines when evaluating season performance; the strand-rate column reflects 2025 inherited-runner data and is labeled accordingly.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)

Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- PHI

Dobbins' 2025 GB rate of 50.0% (186 BIP) meets a Phillies lineup that tilts ground-ball in 2025: Alec Bohm (52.0% GB, 371 BIP), Trea Turner (50.1%, 467 BIP), Edmundo Sosa (48.0%, 175 BIP), Bryce Harper (47.0%, 351 BIP), and Derek Hill (47.5%, 80 BIP) are all ground-ball-oriented hitters. Dobbins generates the type of contact these batters produce — early-count grounders and double-play opportunities.

The line-drive exceptions are the primary risk: Luis Arraez (.582 LD AVG in 2025, 586 BIP), Brandon Marsh (.636 LD AVG, 257 BIP), and Kyle Schwarber (.644 LD AVG, 351 BIP) convert line drives at a high rate and can hurt Dobbins when they square a pitch up. Schwarber's 35.3% fly-ball rate means his damage can also arrive in the air. Fly-ball production from most of this lineup is low: Arraez (.066 FB AVG), Bohm (.091), Hill (.000) — Dobbins can allow fly balls without significant damage from these hitters.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

The battery data reflects Dobbins' prior professional pairings: Carlos Narváez (11 G, 47.0 IP, 3.45 ERA together) and Connor Wong (3 G, 13.2 IP, 3.29 ERA together). Neither catcher is on the Cardinals' 2026 active roster — these samples represent Dobbins' work with previous team catchers. Tonight's catcher is Jimmy Crooks, who has 0 career innings paired with Dobbins in this dataset. The battery is a fresh pairing, and both pitcher and catcher are operating without a shared baseline.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Phillies Base-Stealers (2026, season to date)

Cardinals Catcher Throwing (2026)

The Phillies carry one of the more active running games in the NL. Trea Turner leads with 36 stolen bases at 83.7% (36 SB, 7 CS). Bryson Stott has 24 SB at 82.8% (24 SB, 5 CS). Bryce Harper adds 12 SB at 85.7% (12 SB, 2 CS). The combination of Turner, Stott, and Harper represents three independent running threats who each operate at above-average efficiency. The rest of the roster (Arraez 73.3%, Schwarber 83.3%, Marsh 87.5%) adds volume.

Tonight's Cardinals catcher is Jimmy Crooks. His caught-stealing rate is not published (13 total attempts, under the minimum threshold). Pedro Pagés — who has caught 32.7% of attempting base-stealers this season (52 total attempts) — is on the active roster but not in tonight's projected lineup. The contrast in catcher experience matters most when Turner or Stott reaches base.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Tonight's defensive assignments come from the projected lineup, not from position totals in this table. Masyn Winn starts at shortstop — .994 fielding percentage over 129 games with 64 double plays, the strongest defensive profile on this roster. Jordan Walker plays right field (.981 Fld%, 108 G). Alec Burleson covers first base (.990, 50 G at 1B). Nathan Church starts in center field (18 G at CF, 1.000 Fld%). Jimmy Crooks catches (14 G at C, 1.000 Fld%).

Note: Iván Herrera appears in this table at catcher (14 G, .989 Fld%) because he has caught games this season, but tonight he is in the DH role per the lineup card. The defense table reflects 2025 season position data; tonight's defensive positions are governed by the projected lineup above.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Head-to-head (Cardinals vs Phillies, recent seasons): STL went 4-2 against Philadelphia in 2025, 2-4 in 2024, 1-5 in 2023, and 3-4 in 2022. Philadelphia has held the overall edge in this matchup across recent seasons, with 2025 the clear exception. This is Game 1 of a 3-game series at Busch Stadium.

Ballpark: Busch Stadium. No numeric park factor is available through the head-to-head or park-context sample. Qualitative context applies; no specific run inflation or suppression signal is present in the available data.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Alec Burleson leads St. Louis in contact rate: 14.5% K% in 2025 (544 PA), with a 2026 companion of 16.1% K% and 8.7% BB% (496 PA). Iván Herrera's 2025 K% is 18.7% (450 PA), improved to 17.5% in 2026 (521 PA), with walk rate rising from 9.6% to 10.2% year-over-year. Jordan Walker's 2025 K% of 31.8% (396 PA) has improved to 24.4% in 2026 (488 PA) — still the highest on this list but trending in the right direction. Jimmy Crooks' 2025 strikeout rate was 37.0% (46 PA, very thin sample); his 2026 figures (31.6% K%, 6.1% BB%, 114 PA) show improvement in both rate and walk frequency, though the 2026 sample is still developing.

Phillies

The Phillies carry extreme plate-approach contrast. Luis Arraez has a 3.1% K% in 2025 (675 PA) — the lowest contact-out rate in this table by a wide margin — with a 2026 companion of 4.7% (493 PA). Kyle Schwarber is the opposite extreme: 27.2% K% and 14.9% BB% in 2025 (724 PA), rising to 34.4% K% and 15.1% BB% in 2026 (503 PA). Bryce Harper's BB% in 2025 was 12.1% (580 PA), rising to 15.4% in 2026 (505 PA) — alongside Schwarber, the best walk discipline in the lineup. Derek Hill's K% is 32.2% in 2025 (149 PA) and 34.7% in 2026 (170 PA), the highest strikeout rate among regulars.

For Dobbins, who generated a 17.6% K rate in 2025 (below the league average of approximately 22.1%), Arraez's contact-first approach is a direct foil. Dobbins cannot work through Arraez with swing-and-miss the way he might with Schwarber or Hill — Arraez will put the ball in play, and Dobbins needs his defense to produce outs.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Among Cardinals with 2025 context, Iván Herrera has the highest ground-ball rate: 52.6% (285 BIP). Nathan Church leans heavily toward grounders at 67.6% (37 BIP, small sample). Jimmy Crooks shows a fly-ball lean at 44.4% FB (27 BIP, small sample). Alec Burleson's balanced profile (42.0% GB, 33.4% FB, 24.6% LD) makes him a contact threat in multiple directions against any pitcher.

Phillies

Dobbins' 50.0% GB rate (186 BIP, 2025) meets a Phillies lineup that tilts ground-ball: Alec Bohm (52.0% GB, 371 BIP), Trea Turner (50.1%, 467 BIP), Edmundo Sosa (48.0%, 175 BIP), Bryce Harper (47.0%, 351 BIP), and Derek Hill (47.5%, 80 BIP). These batters produce the type of contact Dobbins is built to handle — early-count grounders and potential double-play situations on his 50.0%-GB sinker-based approach.

The line-drive threats require different management: Luis Arraez's 29.0% LD rate (586 BIP) and .582 LD AVG, Brandon Marsh's 30.0% LD rate and .636 LD AVG, and Kyle Schwarber's .644 LD AVG are the batters who hurt Dobbins most when they square a pitch. Derek Hill's 35.0% LD rate (80 BIP) is the highest on this side; he is a quality-contact hitter when he makes contact. Fly-ball production from most of this lineup is suppressed: Arraez (.066 FB AVG), Bohm (.091), Hill (.000) — fly balls against this group typically do not become extra-base hits.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

Dobbins' 2025 K%/BB% profile (256 BFP, 61.0 IP): 17.6% K rate, 6.6% BB rate, 2.65 K/BB. His 2026 season data through 5 starts (40.0 IP) shows similar direction: the 2025 figures reflect his established control profile. His K% is below the 2025 league average of approximately 22.1%, meaning he relies on groundballs, defense, and pitch-to-contact execution rather than swing-and-miss to work through lineups. The 2.65 K/BB ratio indicates solid control — he limits free passes — but he cannot strike his way out of trouble when the defense misses.

Against Luis Arraez's 3.1% K% profile, Dobbins needs clean contact management on every Arraez at-bat. Against Bryce Harper (15.4% BB% in 2026), he faces a hitter who will take pitches and draw walks if the strike zone isn't attacked. These two represent the Phillies' patient-bat core — the hitters who extend pitch counts and generate traffic for the base-stealers behind them.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Key Matchups

Cardinals offense vs Painter's first pass through the order. Andrew Painter's 2026 first-time-through-the-order OPS of .976 (127 BF) is the Cardinals' clearest offensive window tonight. Alec Burleson (.326 AVG vs RHP in 2026, 345 PA), Jordan Walker (.281 vs RHP, 361 PA), Iván Herrera (.245 vs RHP, 362 PA), and JJ Wetherholt (.249/.353/.387, 2026 slash) are all in the lineup with enough 2026 context to read. Painter's vs-LHB OPS is .847 (212 BF) and vs-RHB is .886 (127 BF), meaning both sides of tonight's projected lineup can reach him. The scoring window narrows as the game progresses and Painter's numbers improve, and it closes further once the Phillies' relief unit — Jhoan Duran (1.74 ERA), Jonathan Bowlan (2.81 ERA), Brooks Raley (2.23 ERA) — takes over.

Bryce Harper vs Hunter Dobbins. Harper's 2025 vs-RHP line is .253/.370/.493 (351 PA), with a 2026 vs-RHP OPS of 1.005 (314 PA). Dobbins' 2025 vs-LHB OPS was .746 (124 PA) — the historically harder platoon side for him. Harper's 15.4% BB% in 2026 means he reaches base without requiring a well-struck ball, and with 12 stolen bases at 85.7% this season, any Harper on-base situation adds a baserunning dimension beyond the plate appearance itself.

Trea Turner's running game and the Cardinals battery. Turner has 36 SB at 83.7% (36 SB, 7 CS) and Bryson Stott has 24 SB at 82.8% (24 SB, 5 CS). Both run in high-leverage situations, and Dobbins' 2025 road walk data (8 BB in 23.0 IP) suggests he gives free passes — every walk with Turner or Stott at the top of the batting order becomes a potential stolen-base sequence. Tonight's Cardinals catcher is Jimmy Crooks; Pedro Pagés (32.7% CS rate, 52 att) is not in the projected lineup.

Watchlist

-- First-inning Cardinals scoring. Painter's first-pass OPS of .976 is real and actionable — 127 batters faced. Whether the Cardinals convert in innings 1 through 3 sets the game's tone before the Phillies' bullpen becomes the structure. A Cardinals lead by the 4th inning changes the leverage calculus for both starting pitchers.

-- Turner on base. Each time Trea Turner reaches, watch the pitch sequence on the next at-bat. His 83.7% stolen-base success rate makes any delayed read costly. With Crooks behind the plate in his first extended season catching, the Phillies will find the answer early and exploit it if available.

-- Dobbins' second pass through the Philadelphia order. His 2025 second-pass-through-the-order OPS was .813 — well above his first-pass figure of .578. The Phillies' patient hitters (Arraez 3.1% K% in 2025, Harper 15.4% BB% in 2026) improve their position the deeper they get into the order. The fourth and fifth innings are where tonight's game shape becomes clear.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Alec Burleson performed against right-handed starting pitchers in his career?

2. How has Bryce Harper fared against right-handed relievers in his career?

3. How has Trea Turner performed against Cardinals pitchers in his career?

4. What are Hunter Dobbins' second-time-through-the-order results by pitch type in 2025?

5. What is Bryce Harper's career slash line vs RHP in high-leverage situations?

6. How often does Riley O'Brien strand inherited runners compared to the league average?

7. What is the run park factor at Busch Stadium relative to the NL average in 2025?