NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

STARTING PITCHERS

Kyle Leahy (R): 7-4, 3.59 ERA, 95.1 IP, 79 K, 33 BB, 1.35 WHIP, 10 HR allowed, 19 GS. 2026 to date: Leahy has been a reliable mid-rotation arm with a strong road-game profile. His 2025 ground-ball baseline (44.2% GB%) is the structural matchup factor against Cincinnati's ground-ball-prone lineup. Home/away split is a defining feature of his profile -- see Section 2D-HA for the full split. His 2025 K/BB ratio of 2.86 reflects consistent strike-throwing without elite strikeout stuff.

Andrew Abbott (L): 5-6, 3.89 ERA, 111.0 IP, 90 K, 50 BB, 1.40 WHIP, 16 HR allowed, 21 GS. 2026 to date: Abbott pitches today away from Cincinnati; his 2025 away ERA is 3.32 vs a 2.19 home ERA. His 41.7% FB% profile creates elevated fly-ball contact and home run exposure. Abbott averages roughly 5.3 innings per start, making a third pass through the Cardinals lineup a conditional event -- he must work deep to reach TTO3.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-07-25)

Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).

Reds (Projected from 2026-07-25)

Handedness: 8 RHB (Myers, Suárez, Trevino, Hayes, Marte, Stewart, Steer, Stephenson), 3 LHB (Bleday, Lowe, Friedl), 2 SHB (Arroyo, Cruz).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster-move data is available from today's data payload for either team. Both lineups are projected from the July 25 game. Confirm active rosters for any late scratches before the 1:15 PM CT first pitch.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

Small sample: Iván Herrera (9 PA), Nathan Church (4 PA).

The BvP table is dominated by negative or near-zero history for most of the Cardinals lineup. Masyn Winn (2-for-17, .118), Jordan Walker (0-for-12, .000, 6 K), Alec Burleson (2-for-12, .167), and Lars Nootbaar (1-for-12, .083, 7 K) have all built enough career PA against Abbott to show a consistent pattern: this group has historically struggled against him. Walker's 0-for-12 is the starkest signal -- he has drawn 3 walks, but the hitless track record over 12 AB is meaningful. Nootbaar's 7 K in 12 AB reflect Abbott's ability to miss bats against the Cardinals' left-handed hitters.

Iván Herrera (4-for-8, .500/.556 OBP) is the lone bright spot, though his 9 PA places him just below the 10-PA meaningful-threshold. The sample is encouraging, not definitive. Wetherholt, Gorman, and Crooks have no career BvP data against Abbott.

Bench note: No bench BvP history vs Abbott in our career sample (Fermín, Velázquez, Pagés, Jordan -- no rows).

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Small sample: Spencer Steer (6 PA), Tyler Stephenson (4 PA), Eugenio Suárez (4 PA), Noelvi Marte (3 PA), Nathaniel Lowe (3 PA), Jose Trevino (2 PA), Ke'Bryan Hayes (2 PA), TJ Friedl (3 PA), Sal Stewart (1 PA).

The entire Reds BvP sample against Leahy is micro -- the largest sample is Spencer Steer at 6 PA. Multiple Reds bats show green numbers: TJ Friedl (1 HR in 3 PA, SLG 2.000), Ke'Bryan Hayes (1-for-2, .500 AVG), Eugenio Suárez (1-for-3, .333/.500 OBP), Nathaniel Lowe (1-for-3, .333). None of these samples cross the 10-PA threshold for meaningful predictive weight. Myers, Arroyo, De La Cruz, Bleday, and Marte have no career BvP data against Leahy in our sample.

No formal danger-bat callout is triggered: no Reds batter has both AVG >= .400 and PA >= 10 against Leahy. TJ Friedl's HR in a 3-PA sample is a qualitative flag but not statistically actionable.

Bench note: No meaningful bench BvP data against Leahy in our career sample for available Reds bench arms (Burke, Ferguson, Moll, Antone -- no rows).

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

Abbott is left-handed, giving the Cardinals' 3 RHB (Iván Herrera, Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn) the platoon advantage today. Herrera's 2025 split vs LHP is the standout in this table: .330/.455/.660 in 124 PA. That is a large-sample, significant-performance line against southpaws. Walker's 2025 split vs LHP (.255/.318/.347) is his better platoon context -- but his 0-for-12 career BvP history against Abbott specifically overrides the generic platoon advantage as the primary signal.

The Cardinals' 6 LHB face Abbott's stronger LHB-suppression arm (.279 OBP, .335 SLG allowed vs LHB in 2025). Lars Nootbaar's .201 AVG vs LHP in 2025 (180 PA) and 1-for-12 career BvP against Abbott make him the most at-risk slot against this starter. Nathan Church's 14-PA vs LHP sample shows .417 AVG but is too small for projection. Jimmy Crooks (8 PA vs LHP) similarly cannot be extrapolated from.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

Leahy throws right-handed. The Reds' 3 left-handed batters (TJ Friedl, Nathaniel Lowe, JJ Bleday) get the platoon advantage today. TJ Friedl's 2025 line vs RHP -- .268/.378/.394 in 487 PA -- is the most substantial sample in this group; his .378 OBP represents strong plate discipline when facing a right-hander. Lowe's .252/.333/.429 vs RHP in 438 PA is solid production across a large sample. Bleday's .180 AVG vs RHP is low, but his 11 HR and .377 SLG show power upside in the platoon-advantage context.

Among the Reds' right-handed bats (arm-side against Leahy), Noelvi Marte's 2025 SLG of .516 vs RHP (13 HR, 256 PA) and Eugenio Suárez's .552 SLG (36 HR, 473 PA) represent the most dangerous power outcomes despite the disadvantaged platoon context. Jose Trevino's .255 AVG vs RHP in 223 PA is the Reds' most reliable contact option in this matchup type. Dane Myers' .208 AVG vs RHP (216 PA) is the group's weakest hitting line.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Abbott's 2025 platoon splits are nearly flat. Against RHB: .234/.287/.387 OPS .674 (510 PA). Against LHB: .236/.279/.335 OPS .614 (174 PA). He is modestly more effective at suppressing left-handed bats, but the gap is not large. The Cardinals' 6 LHB face the .614 OPS allowed vs LHB -- slightly favorable for Abbott. The RHB trio (Iván Herrera, Walker, Winn) faces the .674 OPS context, which is marginally easier to hit in. Abbott is not a severe platoon pitcher; the BvP records and home/away split carry more differentiation than the platoon data alone.

Leahy's 2025 platoon splits show a more meaningful gap: .238/.270/.319 OPS .589 vs RHB (200 PA) vs .252/.337/.364 OPS .701 vs LHB (163 PA). The Reds' 8 RHB in today's projected pool face his best suppression context. The LHB trio (Friedl, Lowe, Bleday) faces the .701 OPS arm -- where today's Reds offensive threat concentrates.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Today's game is at Busch Stadium -- Abbott pitching away, Leahy pitching at home. The split cuts in opposite directions for both starters.

Abbott's 2025 home ERA is 2.19 in 90.1 IP (377 BF); his away ERA is 3.32 in 76.0 IP (307 BF). He is a materially better pitcher at home. Away from Cincinnati today, the Cardinals face a less dominant version of Abbott. Note also that Abbott's away walk total is only 13 BB in 76.0 IP -- he commands the zone even on the road -- but his run-prevention is weaker away.

Leahy's 2025 home ERA is 4.47 in 44.1 IP (190 BF); his road ERA is 2.68 in 43.2 IP (173 BF). At Busch Stadium today, he is in his demonstrably weaker pitching environment. The Cardinals will need his ground-ball tendency and the infield defense to mitigate the home-context ERA differential.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Abbott's 2025 TTO pattern shows consistent first-pass and second-pass suppression -- .229 AVG/.627 OPS in the first pass through the order (TTO1, 262 PA), .235 AVG/.627 OPS in the second pass (TTO2, 261 PA) -- followed by a meaningful power spike in the third pass (TTO3, 161 PA): .243 AVG/.474 SLG/.760 OPS with 10 HR. The third-pass home-run rate is the key signal: Abbott allows significantly more power contact when facing the order a third time. If he works deep into today's game, the Cardinals' third look at him is where that power window opens. The AVG uptick from first to third pass is modest (.229 to .243); the SLG jump (.339 to .474) is substantial.

Leahy's 2025 TTO data is sample-limited. His first-pass-through-the-order line (TTO1, 355 PA) is his full-season baseline: .247/.304/.341 OPS .645. His second-pass data (TTO2) consists of only 8 PA -- not enough to draw any analytical conclusion. The 8-PA TTO2 line (.125 AVG, .375 OPS) is not actionable; treat Leahy's first-pass profile as the operative baseline for today's projection.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

League average strand rate: ~68.8% (2025 Neon proxy). Among the Cardinals arms with meaningful inherited-runner data, Riley O'Brien (70.0%, 10 IR) is the only pitcher comfortably above the league benchmark. Michael McGreevy shows 100.0% in a 3-IR sample -- too small for projection but worth noting as the cleanest small-sample result in the group.

Leahy himself at 62.1% (29 IR, 11 scored) is below league average. When he exits with runners on base, those runners score at a above-average clip. Matt Svanson (50.0%, 26 IR, 13 scored) and Gordon Graceffo (54.5%, 11 IR, 5 scored) are the two arms most at risk when inheriting traffic. If Leahy exits mid-inning and either Svanson or Graceffo enters with runners on, the Reds' baserunners have historically scored at a higher-than-average rate. O'Brien's 70.0% strand rate makes him the preferred high-leverage IR arm by this data.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- CIN

Abbott is a fly-ball pitcher: 41.7% FB% in his career BIP sample (470 BIP). Leahy is the ground-ball arm: 44.2% GB% (249 BIP). The two pitchers represent near-opposite batted-ball styles in today's series-deciding matchup.

Leahy's 2025 GB% of 44.2% against a Reds lineup with several heavy ground-ball hitters creates a matchup that should produce consistent infield contact. Ke'Bryan Hayes (49.5% GB% in 2025), Noelvi Marte (48.8%), Jose Trevino (48.3%), Nathaniel Lowe (46.6%), and Dane Myers (45.9%) all pull ground balls at above-league-average rates. When Leahy generates his preferred contact type against these hitters, the infield -- anchored by Masyn Winn at short and Alec Burleson at first -- is positioned to convert those ground balls into outs.

The standout danger signal in the hitter batted ball table is Noelvi Marte's line-drive contact: .704 LD AVG. When Marte squares up a ball in the air and on a line, it is nearly always a hit. Abbott's fly-ball tendency is less directly relevant here since Leahy is the Cardinals' starter, but it is worth noting: Abbott induces fly-ball contact, and the Reds' line-drive hitters (Marte .704, Dane Myers .702, Tyler Stephenson .733) can punish any mistake pitch that catches the middle of the zone.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

The battery table above reflects Leahy's career game action across all catcher pairings. Yohel Pozo (13G, 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA) does not appear on the current Cardinals active roster -- his games with Leahy predate the current roster configuration. Pedro Pagés (43G, 62.0 IP, 3.05 ERA) remains on the active roster but is not in today's projected lineup. Iván Herrera (4G, 3.0 IP, 6.00 ERA) is in today's lineup as the DH, not behind the plate.

Today's catcher is Jimmy Crooks, confirmed via the projected Cardinals lineup (batting 7th, position C). Crooks has 4 games of data with Leahy in this sample, producing a 6.1 IP window with an 8.53 ERA. The sample size makes that ERA number unreliable, but it represents Leahy's least productive pairing on record. This is a developing battery: Crooks is in his early career games receiving Leahy. Pitch-sequencing calibration and pop-time timing on the Reds' running threats (Myers, Friedl, Hayes) are live reads to monitor early in the game.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Reds baserunning threats (2025 stolen base data):

Dane Myers -- 18 SB, 5 CS, 78.3% success rate. Most active base thief in the Reds' current sample. Projects as a first-pitch-read threat if he reaches base today.

TJ Friedl -- 12 SB, 3 CS, 80.0% success rate. Left-handed bat with above-average speed and the platoon advantage against Leahy. Gets on base often (.378 OBP vs RHP in 2025) and runs when he does.

Ke'Bryan Hayes -- 12 SB, 3 CS, 80.0% success rate. Power-contact profile with meaningful speed on the bases.

Noelvi Marte -- 10 SB, 3 CS, 76.9% success rate. Active on the bases despite a below-average success rate by green-light standards.

Spencer Steer -- 7 SB, 1 CS, 87.5% success rate. The most efficient base stealer in today's Reds sample -- nearly automatic when he attempts.

Eugenio Suárez -- 4 SB, 1 CS, 80.0% success rate.

Nathaniel Lowe -- 1 SB, 0 CS, 100.0% success rate (1 attempt).

JJ Bleday -- 1 SB, 2 CS, 33.3% success rate. The Reds' least efficient base-running option in this sample; not a running threat.

With Jimmy Crooks behind the plate in only his 4th game receiving Leahy, the Reds' top speedsters (Myers 78.3%, Friedl 80.0%, Hayes 80.0%) represent a live early-game read on this battery's timing and throw mechanics.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Today's Cardinals defensive alignment per the projected lineup: Wetherholt at 2B, Iván Herrera at DH (not in the field), Burleson at 1B, Walker at RF, Nootbaar at LF, Winn at SS, Crooks at C, Gorman at 3B, Church at CF. The defense table above reflects career fielding samples and may include multiple positions for multi-position players; use the lineup card for today's actual alignments.

Masyn Winn (SS, 129G, .994 Fld%, 64 DP) is the defensive anchor of today's infield. His double-play volume is directly relevant to Leahy's ground-ball profile (44.2% GB%): Winn's range and reliability at short converts Leahy's grounder contact into outs at a high rate. Alec Burleson at 1B (50G, .990 Fld%, 27 DP) is the reliable receiving end of that infield chain. Nathan Church at CF (18G, 1.000 Fld%) provides a clean sample at the primary flyball-coverage position.

JJ Wetherholt does not appear in the defense table -- his 2B sample is below threshold. He starts at 2B today per the projected lineup. Jimmy Crooks at C (14G, 1.000 Fld%) has a clean fielding record in his limited catching sample.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

The Cardinals and Reds have split their recent head-to-head record closely in NL Central play: Cardinals went 7-6 vs Cincinnati in 2025, 6-7 in 2024, 7-6 in 2023, and 12-7 in 2022. The 2022 series was the only recent year with a significant Cardinals advantage; 2023-2025 have been evenly contested.

Busch Stadium plays as a neutral-to-pitcher-leaning venue. No numeric park factor is available in today's data payload; the qualitative context is that Abbott's road ERA (3.32) is meaningfully higher than his home ERA (2.19), suggesting Busch does not amplify his fly-ball style into a hitter-friendly environment. Leahy's home ERA (4.47) is higher than his road ERA (2.68), which points toward a neutral or mildly hitter-favorable read at Busch for today's Cardinals-specific split.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Jordan Walker's 2025 K% of 31.8% (396 PA) is the highest among Cardinals regulars and is the primary strikeout liability against a pitcher like Abbott. Jimmy Crooks (37.0%, 46 PA) and Nathan Church (27.7%, 65 PA) are elevated, though both are small-sample. Alec Burleson remains the Cardinals' best contact option (14.5% K%, 544 PA) -- well below the league average K% of 22.2%. Iván Herrera (18.7%) and Masyn Winn (19.0%) are also below league average. Against Abbott, whose 2025 K% is 21.8%, the Cardinals' primary vulnerability is the Walker/Crooks/Church slots at the high end of the K% range.

Reds

Tyler Stephenson's 2025 K% of 33.9% (342 PA) is the Reds' highest-strikeout bat in today's projected pool, followed by Eugenio Suárez at 29.8% (657 PA). Suárez's high K% is offset by significant power (36 HR vs RHP in 2025 -- Section 2C). Jose Trevino (12.9% K%, 302 PA) is the Reds' best contact bat against Leahy -- substantially below the 2025 league average K% of 22.2%. TJ Friedl (16.8%, 685 PA) and Ke'Bryan Hayes (19.5%, 570 PA) are also below league average in strikeout rate and represent the Reds' contact-capable bats that will put the ball in play against Leahy's ground-ball profile.

Noelvi Marte's 2025 BB% of 4.4% (360 PA) is notably below the league average BB% of 8.9%. He is an aggressive swinger who walks rarely -- Leahy's path to retiring him runs through early-count contact management rather than nibbling.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Nathan Church leads the Cardinals' 2025 batted-ball profile with a 67.6% GB% (37 BIP) -- an extreme groundball tendency that produces heavy infield contact against Abbott's fly-ball pitching style (41.7% FB%). The tendencies work in opposite directions: Abbott induces fly-ball contact, Church hits the ball down. Iván Herrera (52.6% GB%) and Jordan Walker (48.9% GB%) give the middle of the Cardinals order a ground-ball lean as well. Jimmy Crooks (44.4% FB%) is the Cardinals' most fly-ball-oriented bat -- he could generate the air contact that Abbott prefers to allow, making him the best stylistic fit for Abbott's approach.

Reds

Ke'Bryan Hayes (49.5% GB%, 2025) and Jose Trevino (48.3% GB%) are the Reds' most ground-ball-heavy hitters. Their tendency to put the ball on the ground aligns directly with Leahy's 2025 GB% of 44.2% -- at-bats between Leahy and these two should produce infield-contact-dominated outcomes, channeling the ball toward Winn and Burleson. Nathaniel Lowe (46.6%), Noelvi Marte (48.8%), and Dane Myers (45.9%) are similarly ground-ball-prone.

Eugenio Suárez (41.4% FB%, 2025) and JJ Bleday (41.1% FB%) are the Reds' fly-ball-tilt hitters -- the opposite of Leahy's ground-ball ideal. Their at-bats carry higher power-outcome risk. Noelvi Marte's .704 career LD AVG (Section 2G) remains the single most dangerous individual contact outcome in this matchup regardless of his overall batted-ball profile.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

2026 to date: Abbott is 5-6, 3.89 ERA in 21 GS and 111.0 IP. 2025 baseline: Abbott's K/BB ratio is 3.47 (149 K, 43 BB in 166.1 IP) with 21.8% K% and 6.3% BB% -- an efficient strikeout-to-walk pitcher who commands the zone. His BB% of 6.3% is below the league baseline, meaning he limits his own damage through zone control even when he gives up hard contact.

2026 to date: Leahy is 7-4, 3.59 ERA in 19 GS and 95.1 IP. 2025 baseline: Leahy's K/BB ratio is 2.86 (80 K, 28 BB in 88.0 IP) with 22.0% K% and 7.7% BB%. Both starters carry similar K% profiles in 2025 -- 21.8% for Abbott, 22.0% for Leahy -- with Abbott showing the better BB% (6.3% vs 7.7%) producing a K/BB advantage of 3.47 to 2.86. Leahy's zone-control is solid but not quite at Abbott's 2025 efficiency level.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Iván Herrera vs Andrew Abbott. The Cardinals' clearest offensive weapon this afternoon. Herrera is 4-for-8 (.500/.556 OBP) career vs Abbott and posts a .330/.455/.660 line vs LHP in 2025 in 124 PA. Batting second, he projects for 3-4 looks at Abbott. This is the most reliable positive BvP signal in today's Cardinals lineup and the matchup most likely to drive early-game scoring.

Jordan Walker vs Andrew Abbott. Walker is 0-for-12 career with 6 K against Abbott -- a meaningful accumulation in the wrong direction. His 2025 K% of 31.8% is the Cardinals' highest among regular starters, and Abbott's profile targets exactly that swing-and-miss tendency. Walker batting cleanup creates the Cardinals' biggest BvP liability today. Watch whether he draws on his 3-walk career total against Abbott (OBP .200) rather than hunting contact.

Kyle Leahy vs TJ Friedl and the Reds' left-handed trio. Leahy's 2025 split vs LHB is .252/.337/.364 OPS .701 -- weaker than his .589 OPS vs RHB. TJ Friedl (.268/.378/.394 vs RHP in 2025, 487 PA) is the most productive of the three left-handed Reds bats in this platoon-advantage context. Friedl has a career HR off Leahy in 3 PA -- small sample, but a live flag in a series-deciding game. Nathaniel Lowe (.252/.333/.429 vs RHP, 438 PA) is the steadiest of the LHB trio.

Abbott's home/away split at Busch. Abbott pitches today away from Cincinnati -- his 2025 away ERA is 3.32 vs a 2.19 home ERA. The Cardinals catch him in his demonstrably weaker road context. Combined with his TTO3 power-spike pattern (.760 OPS, 10 HR in 161 PA in the third pass through the order), if Abbott is left in to face the Cardinals a third time, the middle of the order gets the most dangerous version of that vulnerability.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Iván Herrera performed against Andrew Abbott in their career?

2. How has Kyle Leahy fared against Eugenio Suárez in their career?

3. How has TJ Friedl performed against Kyle Leahy in their career?

4. What are Andrew Abbott's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Jordan Walker's splits vs LHP in 2025?

6. How often does Riley O'Brien strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?