NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Brewers59-37-L3
Cubs54-425.0W2
Cardinals50-458.5L1
Pirates50-479.5W3
Reds43-5215.5L2

NL WEST STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Dodgers61-36-L3
D-backs49-4711.5W4
Padres48-4812.5W2
Giants41-5519.5W2
Rockies39-5922.5L2

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

DateOppH/AResult
Jul 12ATLHomeL 3-4
Jul 11ATLHomeW 4-1
Jul 10ATLHomeW 2-1
Jul 9MILHomeL 4-8
Jul 8MILHomeW 5-1
Jul 7MILHomeL 3-4
Jul 7MILHomeL 2-10
Jul 6MILHomeL 3-4
Jul 5CHCAwayL 4-6
Jul 4CHCAwayW 3-0

STARTING PITCHERS

Cardinals: TBD

The Cardinals starter is unannounced at publish. Header line will populate when the club sets the arm.

Diamondbacks: Merrill Kelly (R)

2026 to date: 7-8, 5.38 ERA, 93.2 IP, 59 K, 38 BB, 1.51 WHIP, 20 HR allowed across 16 starts. K% has slipped to 14.4% and BB% climbed to 9.2%, both well off his 2025 baselines. Ground-ball rate 46.2%.

2025 baseline: 184.0 IP, 167 K, 48 BB, 22.3% K, 6.4% BB, 3.48 K/BB ratio, .222 AVG allowed to LHB with 17 HR in 399 PA, .229 AVG to RHB with 6 HR in 349 PA. Home/away nearly identical: 3.40 ERA at Chase Field, 3.45 on the road. The 2025 arm is a different animal than the 2026 one.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-07-12)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
1Wetherholt2BL.310.880
2HerreraDHR.216.700
3Burleson1BL.346.925
4WalkerRFR.3301.089
5NootbaarLFL.167.730
6WinnSSR.234.655
7CrooksCL.308.972
8Gorman3BL----
9ChurchCFL.262.726

Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).

Diamondbacks (From active roster)

12 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

PlayerPosBats
CarrollRFL
MorenoCR
PerdomoSSS
Vargas1BS
McCannCR
BarrosaCFS
Marte2BS
GurrielLFR
KeplerLFL
Arenado3BR
WaldschmidtCFR
TawaLFR

Handedness: 6 RHB (Moreno, McCann, Gurriel, Arenado, Waldschmidt, Tawa), 2 LHB (Carroll, Kepler), 4 SHB (Perdomo, Vargas, Barrosa, Marte).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster-move data is available for today. Cardinals lineup is a projection from 2026-07-12; the Cardinals starter is listed TBD. Arizona's lineup is drawn from the active roster pool; the batting order will firm up closer to first pitch.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Lars Nootbaar1192.222.364.556122
Alec Burleson981.125.222.125010
Jordan Walker971.143.333.286023
Masyn Winn661.167.167.167002
Iván Herrera662.333.333.333001

Small sample: Alec Burleson (9 PA), Jordan Walker (9 PA), Masyn Winn (6 PA), Iván Herrera (6 PA).

Nootbaar has the deepest career look at Kelly (11 PA) and the only home run in the sample, plus 2 walks -- a live L-vs-R data point. Iván Herrera's 6 PA / .333 AVG is best-in-column but under the small-sample line. Burleson (.125 in 9 PA) and Walker (.143 with 3 K in 9 PA) have been quiet in the career look; the season-level RHP splits in 2C tell a friendlier story for both.

Bench note: Wetherholt, Crooks, Gorman, Church, and the bench (Blaze Jordan, Bryan Torres, José Fermín, Nelson Velázquez, Pedro Pagés) have no career BvP rows against Kelly. First-look at-bats against a starter now on his 16th start of the season.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

No data available for this section.

The Cardinals starter is TBD, so no BvP lookup was possible. This section will remain empty until the club announces the arm; when it does, Perdomo, Marte, and Arenado are the career-BvP names to watch given their volume vs the STL rotation over recent seasons.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Alec Burleson L419.296.353.478153259
Lars Nootbaar L403.249.340.394104772
Masyn Winn R374.251.309.36872371
Iván Herrera R328.268.343.399102466
Jordan Walker R289.200.263.29142194
Nathan Church L51.114.216.1821314
Jimmy Crooks L38.108.132.1620015

Kelly is a RHP, so this table is the day's primary Cardinals batter lens. Burleson (.296 / .353 / .478 in 419 PA vs RHP in 2025) is the clear positive outlier. Nootbaar's 2025 vs RHP line (.249 / .340 / .394 with 47 BB in 403 PA) fits his walk-inclined profile. Winn and Iván Herrera pair reasonable OBPs (.309, .343) with modest slugging. Walker's .200 / .263 / .291 vs RHP in 2025 with 94 K is a real signal in an otherwise stable middle-of-order role. Church and Crooks carry sub-.200 slugging vs RHP but are small-sample rows (51 and 38 PA respectively) -- treat as directional.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Geraldo Perdomo B219.341.416.48662615
Corbin Carroll L201.246.323.48681844
Ketel Marte B185.281.378.52592125
Lourdes Gurriel R156.296.353.43051312
Nolan Arenado R112.294.339.402287
Tim Tawa R82.253.293.3331524
Max Kepler L79.214.291.3432817
Gabriel Moreno R77.279.351.3971811
Ildemaro Vargas B52.260.288.380216
James McCann R50.279.367.4191410
Jorge Barrosa B44.154.205.2821211

This table is the ARI-vs-LHP look in 2025 and applies most cleanly if the Cardinals go with a LHP starter. Perdomo (.341 / .416 / .486 in 219 PA, 15 K in 219 PA) is the standout on-base bat -- an elite discipline profile from the switch side. Marte (.281 / .378 / .525) is the power co-headliner. Gurriel and Arenado both sit in the .294-.296 AVG range with meaningful slugging in the 112-156 PA slice. Carroll's .246 vs LHP with 8 HR in 201 PA is the L-vs-L danger tell -- power in a matchup that usually blunts him. Barrosa's .154 in 44 PA is the visible negative.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

PitchervsPAAVGOBPSLGOPSHRK
Merrill Kellyvs LHB399.222.281.428.7091781
Merrill Kellyvs RHB349.229.273.333.606686

Kelly's 2025 splits show near-identical batting-average results (.222 vs L, .229 vs R) but a decisive slugging gap: .428 to LHB with 17 HR in 399 PA vs .333 to RHB with 6 HR in 349 PA. The Cardinals project 6 LHB in the lineup tonight -- that's the power lane. RHB Herrera, Walker, and Winn face the tougher slugging matchup, though Kelly's K count is nearly balanced (81 vs L, 86 vs R).

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

PitcherSplitBFIPERAKBBHR
Merrill KellyAway33886.03.45721610
Merrill KellyHome41098.03.40953213

Tonight's game is at Chase Field, so the Home column is the operative context. Kelly's 2025 home line -- 3.40 ERA, 95 K, 32 BB in 98.0 IP -- is a near-mirror of his away work in ERA terms, with somewhat more strikeouts and more walks. Home/away has not been the driver of his 2025 performance; his lane-defining split remains the LHB/RHB one and the third-pass cliff.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PitcherTTOPAAVGSLGOPSHRKBB
Merrill KellyTTO1289.200.358.621107721
Merrill KellyTTO2288.208.342.60076018
Merrill KellyTTO3171.296.494.8276309

Kelly's 2025 TTO splits show a sharp third-pass cliff. First pass through the order: .200 / .358 SLG / .621 OPS in 289 PA. Second pass: .208 / .342 / .600 in 288 PA. Third pass: .296 / .494 / .827 in 171 PA -- more than 200 points of OPS separate his third pass from his first two. The Cardinals' path against Kelly is to survive innings 1-6 without giving up early runs and force him into a third pass through the order in the 7th, where his contact profile has historically decayed.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

RelieverIRScoredStrand%
Kyle Leahy291162.1%
JoJo Romero26388.5%
Matt Svanson261350.0%
Gordon Graceffo11554.5%
Riley O'Brien10370.0%
Michael McGreevy30100.0%

Romero (88.5% strand on 26 inherited runners) and McGreevy (100.0% on 3) are the Cardinals' clean cleanup arms. Svanson (50.0% on 26 IR) and Graceffo (54.5% on 11) sit well under the ~68-72% league average. If the Cardinals starter leaves runners on, who the club calls next materially changes the run-expectancy math. Leahy at 62.1% on 29 IR is the middle case -- volume without dominance.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

PitcherBIPGB%FB%LD%
Merrill Kelly50844.9%31.5%22.8%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- ARI

HitterGB AVGLD AVGFB AVG
Nolan Arenado.223.560.089
Jorge Barrosa.182.333.067
Corbin Carroll.250.681.101
Lourdes Gurriel.253.570.022
Max Kepler.198.592.042
Ketel Marte.206.702.124
James McCann.250.600.190
Gabriel Moreno.326.587.063
Geraldo Perdomo.209.684.103
Tim Tawa.235.500.114
Ildemaro Vargas.241.786.125

Kelly's 2025 batted-ball profile is close to neutral: 44.9% GB, 31.5% FB, 22.8% LD across 508 balls in play. Not a heavy grounder pitcher and not a fly-ball extreme. The ARI lineup's career line-drive averages are uniformly elite (Marte .702, Vargas .786, Perdomo .684, Carroll .681, McCann .600) -- when they square Kelly up, damage is likely; the game is whether they square him up in the first place given his 22.3% K rate. Moreno's .326 on grounders is the standout for a batter who could take advantage of any 2G contact leaks.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

No data available for this section.

Battery pairing data returned zero rows. Tonight's Cardinals catcher per the projected lineup is Jimmy Crooks (batting 7th) -- his fielding sample at C so far in 2025 is 14 games with 0 errors and a 1.000 fielding percentage, but there is no career battery data with the (still TBD) Cardinals starter. This is a fresh-battery signal by default: any signal-sequencing or pop-time calibration is untested at the pairing level in the available data.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Corbin Carroll: 32 SB / 6 CS in 2025 for an 84.2% success rate. The season's top speed threat in this game; forces the battery's attention on every reach.

Geraldo Perdomo: 27 SB / 6 CS (81.8%). Combines with Carroll to give Arizona two 80%+ base-stealers in the top third of the order.

Lourdes Gurriel: 10 SB / 4 CS (71.4%). Occasional runner; will pick spots.

Tim Tawa: 8 SB / 2 CS (80.0%). Bench speed if used.

Ketel Marte: 4 SB / 2 CS (66.7%). Not a primary runner.

Nolan Arenado: 3 SB / 0 CS (100.0%). Rare; picks his spots.

Max Kepler: 3 SB / 0 CS (100.0%). Rare; picks his spots.

Gabriel Moreno: 2 SB / 2 CS (50.0%). Not a base-stealing threat.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

PlayerPOSGDPEFld%
Masyn WinnSS1296430.994
Jordan WalkerRF108240.981
Lars NootbaarLF107001.000
Alec Burleson1B502740.990
Alec BurlesonLF41001.000
Alec BurlesonRF34110.983
Lars NootbaarRF23001.000
Nathan ChurchCF18001.000
Jimmy CrooksC14001.000
Iván HerreraC14010.989
Lars NootbaarCF12010.967
Nathan ChurchRF7010.833
Nathan ChurchLF5001.000
Iván HerreraLF4001.000
Alec BurlesonP100--

Tonight's projected alignment leans on Winn at SS (0.994 Fld%, 64 DP in 129 games -- an elite double-play partner behind an infield ground-ball look) and Nootbaar in LF (1.000 in 107 games at the position). Walker in RF (0.981 in 108 games, 4 E) is the biggest error signal in the everyday lineup. Church makes his start in CF (1.000 in 18 games); a Chase Field flyball night pushes his range into play. Crooks starts at C tonight -- clean 1.000 on 14 games of catching in 2025.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Chase Field plays as a fair-hitter-friendly venue with a retractable roof; the available head-to-head sample does not carry a numeric park factor. Season-by-season head-to-head is even in three straight years: 2025 (3-3), 2024 (3-3), 2023 (3-3), with a 5-2 Cardinals edge in 2022. Tonight opens a three-game set; Arizona enters on a W4 streak and the Cardinals arrive on an L1.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Lars Nootbaar58311920.4%6411.0%
Alec Burleson5447914.5%397.2%
Masyn Winn53710219.0%346.3%
Iván Herrera4508418.7%439.6%
Jordan Walker39612631.8%297.3%
Nathan Church651827.7%34.6%
Jimmy Crooks461737.0%00.0%

Walker's 2025 31.8% K% and Crooks's 2025 37.0% K% are the biggest whiff signals in the lineup and both sit well above the league 22.1% K% mark. Nootbaar's 2025 11.0% BB% is the top on-base tell; Burleson, Winn, and Iván Herrera all sit in the 14-20% K% range for reliable contact. Church and Crooks carry low walk rates on small 2025 samples.

Diamondbacks

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Geraldo Perdomo7208311.5%9413.1%
Corbin Carroll64215323.8%6710.4%
Ketel Marte5568314.9%6411.5%
Lourdes Gurriel5467613.9%315.7%
Max Kepler4749319.6%4810.1%
Nolan Arenado4364911.2%286.4%
Gabriel Moreno3095317.2%299.4%
Tim Tawa2256428.4%208.9%
James McCann1373324.1%85.8%
Ildemaro Vargas1211512.4%21.7%
Jorge Barrosa772228.6%22.6%

Perdomo (2025 BB% 13.1, 2025 K% 11.5) and Arenado (2025 BB% 6.4, 2025 K% 11.2) are the elite contact-and-discipline anchors of the ARI lineup. Marte's 2025 BB% 11.5 with 2025 K% 14.9 is another walk-leaning bat. Tawa (2025 K% 28.4) and Barrosa (2025 K% 28.6) are the whiff spots. Vargas's 2025 BB% 1.7 is the lowest patience mark in either lineup -- swings early.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Alec Burleson39842.0%33.4%24.6%
Masyn Winn37639.6%34.0%26.3%
Lars Nootbaar37639.1%35.4%25.5%
Iván Herrera28552.6%21.8%25.6%
Jordan Walker23148.9%29.4%21.6%
Nathan Church3767.6%21.6%10.8%
Jimmy Crooks2737.0%44.4%18.5%

Kelly's 2025 44.9% GB% meets a Cardinals side with three regulars over 44% GB% -- Iván Herrera (2025 GB% 52.6), Walker (2025 GB% 48.9), and Church on a small 2025 sample (67.6%). Nootbaar (2025 LD% 25.5) and Winn (2025 LD% 26.3) are the top line-drive rates in the group. Crooks's 2025 44.4% FB% on 27 BIP is the visible fly-ball outlier but on a small sample.

Diamondbacks

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Geraldo Perdomo48440.5%32.0%27.5%
Lourdes Gurriel40540.0%33.6%26.4%
Corbin Carroll38038.9%36.3%24.7%
Ketel Marte37044.6%32.7%22.7%
Nolan Arenado34038.2%39.7%22.1%
Max Kepler31638.3%37.7%24.1%
Gabriel Moreno21541.4%29.3%29.3%
Tim Tawa12753.5%27.6%18.9%
Ildemaro Vargas9660.4%25.0%14.6%
James McCann8551.8%24.7%23.5%
Jorge Barrosa4647.8%32.6%19.6%

Perdomo (2025 LD% 27.5) and Moreno (2025 LD% 29.3) are the top line-drive rates in the Arizona group -- both bats have already shown huge career line-drive AVGs in Section 2G. Arenado and Kepler carry the highest 2025 FB% marks (39.7% and 37.7%) -- fly-ball bats in a domed neutral-hitter venue. Vargas (2025 GB% 60.4) and Tawa (2025 GB% 53.5) are the ground-ball outliers.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

PitcherIPKK%BBBB%K/BB
Merrill Kelly184.016722.3%486.4%3.48

2026 to date: 14.4% K%, 9.2% BB% in 93.2 IP -- both marks are meaningful drift from his 2025 baseline. 2025 baseline: 22.3% K%, 6.4% BB%, 3.48 K/BB ratio in 184.0 IP. If the 2026 version shows up tonight, the Cardinals should be able to draw walks; if the 2025 version does, the Cardinals need to hunt in the zone against a sub-7% BB pitcher.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Nootbaar (L) vs Kelly (R). Deepest career look at Kelly in this lineup: 11 PA / .222 / .364 OBP / .556 SLG with a HR and 2 BB. Season vs RHP in 2025: .249 / .340 / .394 with 47 BB in 403 PA. Best all-around at-bat quality on the Cardinals side against a Kelly LHB profile that gave up 17 HR in 2025 (Section 2D).

Burleson (L) vs Kelly (R). 9 PA career at .125 / .222 / .125 -- quiet in the sample. But the 2025 vs RHP line is .296 / .353 / .478 (Section 2C) with 15 HR in 419 PA, and Burleson leads the projected lineup at .346 with RISP in 2026. The high-leverage swings project favorably.

Perdomo (S) vs Cardinals LHP (if used). 2025 vs LHP: .341 / .416 / .486 in 219 PA with just 15 K. Section 2C's standout row -- an on-base engine at the top of Arizona's order that punishes lefties. If the Cardinals starter is a LHP, plan around him.

Arenado (R) vs Cardinals LHP (if used). 2025 vs LHP: .294 / .339 / .402 in 112 PA (7 K only). Career line-drive AVG .560 (Section 2G). Fewer whiffs than any Cardinals batter in tonight's lineup and enough slugging to make a mistake pitch a two-run mistake.

Walker (R) vs Kelly (R). Career: 9 PA / .143 / .333 / .286 with 3 K. Season vs RHP in 2025: .200 / .263 / .291 with 94 K in 289 PA (Section 2C) and a 2025 K% of 31.8 (Section 2L). Kelly's 2025 K% is 22.3, but the matchup slants toward whiffs on Walker's side.

Cardinals bullpen fork. Romero (88.5% strand on 26 IR, Section 2F) is the cleanup arm; Svanson (50.0% on 26 IR) is the leak. Which arm the Cardinals bring in with runners on decides whether an early Kelly wobble becomes a scored run.

Carroll's speed. 32 SB / 6 CS (84.2%) in 2025 (Section 2I). With Cardinals starter TBD, whichever arm gets the ball has to hold Carroll if he reaches early.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Lars Nootbaar performed against Merrill Kelly in their career?

2. How has Alec Burleson performed against Merrill Kelly in their career?

3. How has JoJo Romero fared against Corbin Carroll in their career?

4. What are Merrill Kelly's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Geraldo Perdomo's splits vs LHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Chase Field in 2025?

700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025