NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Brewers59-36-L2
Cubs53-426.0W1
Cardinals50-448.5W2
Pirates49-4710.5W2
Reds43-5115.5L1

NL EAST STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Braves54-40-L2
Phillies53-432.0W1
Marlins52-443.0L2
Nationals48-487.0L2
Mets40-5615.0L2

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

DateOppH/AResult
Jul 11ATLHomeW 4-1
Jul 10ATLHomeW 2-1
Jul 9MILHomeL 4-8
Jul 8MILHomeW 5-1
Jul 7MILHomeL 3-4
Jul 7MILHomeL 2-10
Jul 6MILHomeL 3-4
Jul 5CHCAwayL 4-6
Jul 4CHCAwayW 3-0
Jul 3CHCAwayW 17-1

STARTING PITCHERS

Dustin May (R) -- STL

2026 to date: 5-6, 4.55 ERA, 89.0 IP, 85 K, 24 BB, 1.25 WHIP, 23.0% K%, 6.5% BB%, 48.5% GB% (17 GS). 2025 baseline: 21.1% K%, 9.6% BB%, 2.20 K/BB across 132.1 IP -- the 2026 walk rate is a real step forward on command, and the K rate has ticked up as well.

JR Ritchie (R) -- ATL

2026 to date: 1-2, 4.60 ERA, 45.0 IP, 42 K, 28 BB, 1.47 WHIP, 21.0% K%, 14.0% BB%, 47.7% GB% (7 GS). No 2025 baseline is carried in the historical sample -- Ritchie was not in the majors last year, so the current-season profile carries the entire read. The 14.0% walk rate is the flag: well above the ~9% league benchmark.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-07-11)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
1Wetherholt2BL.310.880
2HerreraDHR.216.700
3Burleson1BL.340.906
4WalkerRFR.3301.089
5NootbaarLFL.167.711
6WinnSSR.227.647
7CrooksCL.3331.052
8Gorman3BL----
9ChurchCFL.262.726

Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).

Braves (Projected from 2026-07-11)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
NoneRiley3BR.253.772
NoneSmithDHL.302.853
NoneBaldwinCL.302.837
NoneWhiteRFR.241.703
NoneJarvisSSL.167.334
NoneBartCR.160.494
NoneMateoSSR.250.573
NoneFarmerDHR.200.567
NoneOlson1BL.193.687
NoneDubónLFR.359.975
NoneHarrisCFL.317.786
NoneYastrzemskiLFL----
NoneAlbies2BS.333.869

Handedness: 6 RHB (Riley, White, Bart, Mateo, Farmer, Dubón), 6 LHB (Smith, Baldwin, Jarvis, Olson, Harris, Yastrzemski), 1 SHB (Albies).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster-move notes available for today. The Cardinals lineup is projected from 2026-07-11; both active-roster catchers (Pagés, Crooks) remain available, with Crooks slotted as today's projected starter. The Braves projection is also a prior-day carryover and mirrors last night's active-roster pool.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

No data available for this section.

No career BvP rows for any Cardinals batter against Ritchie -- he is a first-year starter with no 2025 sample carried in the historical database. This is a profile matchup on the STL side; the platoon and K/BB reads carry the load.

Bench note: No career BvP history for the bench (Pagés, Fermín, Jordan, Torres, Velázquez) against Ritchie either. The starting nine and the bench alike are seeing him without prior history.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Matt Olson1080.000.200.000025
Ozzie Albies980.000.111.000014
Austin Riley772.286.2861.143203
Michael Harris551.200.200.200001
Joey Bart441.250.250.500002
Drake Baldwin430.000.250.000010
Kyle Farmer331.333.333.667000
Dominic Smith531.333.6001.333120
Mauricio Dubón330.000.000.000001
Eli White330.000.000.000003
Jorge Mateo110.000.000.000000

Small sample: Ozzie Albies (9 PA), Austin Riley (7 PA), Michael Harris (5 PA), Joey Bart (4 PA), Drake Baldwin (4 PA), Kyle Farmer (3 PA), Dominic Smith (5 PA), Mauricio Dubón (3 PA), Eli White (3 PA), Jorge Mateo (1 PA).

Two loud rows in a table full of small samples. Austin Riley is 2-for-7 with both hits leaving the yard (.286/.286/1.143, 2 HR) -- the clearest career power flag against May. Dominic Smith is 1-for-3 with an HR and 2 BB (.333/.600/1.333 in 5 PA), the second BvP power flag. On the other side, May has largely managed Matt Olson (0-for-8 with 5 K in 10 PA) and Ozzie Albies (0-for-8 with 4 K in 9 PA) in the small career sample. Farmer's 1-for-3 is the only other row with an average above .250; Bart's HR-in-4-PA (.500 SLG) is a distant third power note.

Bench note: Baldwin (0-for-3, 1 BB in 4 PA), Bart (1-for-4 in 4 PA), and Dubón (0-for-3 in 3 PA) round out the small-sample bench rows -- none actionable. No career BvP rows for Jarvis or Yastrzemski against May.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Alec Burleson L419.296.353.478153259
Lars Nootbaar L403.249.340.394104772
Masyn Winn R374.251.309.36872371
Iván Herrera R328.268.343.399102466
Jordan Walker R289.200.263.29142194
Nathan Church L51.114.216.1821314
Jimmy Crooks L38.108.132.1620015

Burleson anchors the LHB stack at .296/.353/.478 in 419 PA vs RHP (2025). Nootbaar (.340 OBP) and Iván Herrera (.343 OBP) fill in credibly. The soft spots repeat from yesterday: Walker's .200 average in 289 PA with a 31.8% 2025 K% is the swing-and-miss cleanup risk, and Crooks (.108/.132/.162 in 38 PA) and Church (.114/.216/.182 in 51 PA) are thin 2025 samples that skew heavily red. Wetherholt and Gorman carry no 2025 vs-RHP rows -- profile bets, not history bets.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Matt Olson L509.268.379.4942375117
Ozzie Albies B481.225.310.345124976
Michael Harris L458.252.270.420171189
Drake Baldwin L351.267.336.472153153
Austin Riley R346.259.312.4311222106
Mauricio Dubón R283.221.267.33561731
Joey Bart R246.230.333.29612667
Dominic Smith L198.296.343.43651438
Kyle Farmer R177.211.249.3132641
Eli White R175.229.259.3865546
Jorge Mateo R44.150.227.2501417

Olson leads at .268/.379/.494 in 509 PA vs RHP (2025) -- steady damage but managed by May in the career BvP sample. Dominic Smith .296/.343/.436 in 198 PA is the second LHB threat and matches the 2B BvP power flag. Baldwin .267/.336/.472 in 351 PA and Harris .252/.270/.420 in 458 PA round out the LHB threats against a RHP. On the RHB side, Riley (.259/.312/.431 in 346 PA) is the anchor and Bart (.230/.333/.296 in 246 PA) has the on-base skill. Mateo (.150/.227/.250 in 44 PA) is the weakest bat on the card.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

PitchervsPAAVGOBPSLGOPSHRK
Dustin Mayvs LHB334.261.357.495.8521582
Dustin Mayvs RHB250.256.325.386.711641

May carries a real LHB vulnerability -- .261/.357/.495/.852 OPS in 334 PA vs LHB with 15 HR, against a steadier .256/.325/.386/.711 in 250 PA vs RHB. The Braves' projected lineup fields 6 LHB (Smith, Baldwin, Jarvis, Olson, Harris, Yastrzemski) plus switch-hitter Albies (batting L against May) -- functionally seven LHB in the order, exactly the split where May has surrendered his power damage historically.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

PitcherSplitBFIPERAKBBHR
Dustin MayAway25857.16.28502612
Dustin MayHome32675.03.2473309

Today's game is at Busch -- decisively May's better context. 3.24 ERA at home in 75.0 IP against 6.28 on the road in 57.1 IP is one of the widest home/road splits on the pitching staff. Home May is the ceiling case; road May is the floor. Given the LHB-heavy Braves order and the home-park cushion, the split works in the Cardinals' favor.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PitcherTTOPAAVGSLGOPSHRKBB
Dustin MayTTO1227.226.347.65255623
Dustin MayTTO2220.290.508.87894417
Dustin MayTTO3137.263.517.88272316

May's cliff arrives on the second pass through the order. TTO1 (first pass): .226/.305/.347/.652 OPS in 227 PA -- his clean-work window. TTO2 (second pass): .290/.370/.508/.878 OPS with 9 HR in 220 PA -- a pronounced middle-innings jump. TTO3 (third pass): .263/.365/.517/.882 OPS in 137 PA -- damage stays elevated rather than reverting. The leverage window is innings 4-6, and the case for pulling May at the top of a lineup on the third pass is strong.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

RelieverIRScoredStrand%
Kyle Leahy291162.1%
JoJo Romero26388.5%
Matt Svanson261350.0%
Gordon Graceffo11554.5%
Riley O'Brien10370.0%
Michael McGreevy30100.0%

League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero (88.5% in 26 IR) is the elite bridge and the arm to spend in a tied middle inning. O'Brien (70.0% in 10 IR) is stable at league average. Svanson (50.0% in 26 IR) and Graceffo (54.5% in 11 IR) are the volatile arms -- damage-likelier than average when they enter with runners on. Leahy (62.1% in 29 IR) sits just below league average. McGreevy's 100% is a 3-runner sample and reads as noise until it fills out.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

PitcherBIPGB%FB%LD%
Dustin May37244.1%28.2%26.6%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- ATL

HitterGB AVGLD AVGFB AVG
Ozzie Albies.236.598.076
Drake Baldwin.201.641.118
Joey Bart.280.745.098
Mauricio Dubón.222.597.099
Kyle Farmer.169.576.109
Michael Harris.230.593.101
Jorge Mateo.261.500.176
Matt Olson.261.682.154
Austin Riley.310.684.094
Dominic Smith.343.571.111
Eli White.286.455.089

May's career profile (44.1% GB, 28.2% FB, 26.6% LD) is ground-ball leaning without being extreme. Braves hitters who punish ground contact: Riley .310 career GB AVG, Smith .343, White .286 -- ground contact against May's tendency that still yields hits. Olson (.682 career LD AVG) and Baldwin (.641) punish line drives -- the drive-and-miss window when May leaves a pitch elevated. Ritchie's batted-ball profile is not in the historical sample, so Cardinals hitters walk into a first-year read on that side of the matchup.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

CatcherGIPERAAVGOBPSLG
Will Smith1156.04.98.255----
Dalton Rushing634.23.89.227----
Carlos Narváez421.04.71.299----
Austin Barnes212.14.38.250----
Connor Wong25.16.75.348----

The catchers above reflect May's Dodgers and Red Sox tenure -- Will Smith (11 G, 56.0 IP), Dalton Rushing (6 G, 34.2 IP), and Austin Barnes are Dodgers pairings; Carlos Narváez and Connor Wong are Red Sox pairings. None of the five is on the Cardinals active roster. Today's scheduled Cardinals catcher per the projected card is Jimmy Crooks (batting 7th) -- 0 career IP with May in the sample above. That is a fresh battery: unfamiliar pop-time calibration, first-time signal sequencing. In a game with a live running lineup on deck (see 2I), the pairing itself is a middle-innings scouting angle.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

The Braves carry the running-game read against a rookie catcher today. Career SB leaders on the ATL card:

-- Michael Harris: 20 SB, 6 CS, 76.9% success rate. The most-active runner and a live threat once he reaches.

-- Jorge Mateo: 15 SB, 2 CS, 88.2%. Elite success rate; primary bench-speed weapon.

-- Ozzie Albies: 14 SB, 3 CS, 82.4%. Middle-of-order speed that turns singles into second.

-- Eli White: 10 SB, 1 CS, 90.9%. Cleanest success rate on the card.

Complementary threats: Dubón (3-for-3, 100%), Smith (2-for-2, 100%), Olson (1-for-1, 100%), Riley (2-for-3, 66.7%), Bart (1-for-2, 50.0%). With Crooks catching and no prior May-Crooks reps in the historical sample, expect first-move green lights for Harris and Mateo.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

PlayerPOSGDPEFld%
Masyn WinnSS1296430.994
Jordan WalkerRF108240.981
Lars NootbaarLF107001.000
Alec Burleson1B502740.990
Alec BurlesonLF41001.000
Alec BurlesonRF34110.983
Lars NootbaarRF23001.000
Nathan ChurchCF18001.000
Jimmy CrooksC14001.000
Iván HerreraC14010.989
Lars NootbaarCF12010.967
Nathan ChurchRF7010.833
Nathan ChurchLF5001.000
Iván HerreraLF4001.000
Alec BurlesonP100--

Winn is the defensive anchor -- 129 G at SS, .994 Fld%, 64 DP turned. Walker's 4 E in 108 G at RF is the outfield-right-side flag. Nootbaar has been perfect (0 E) across 107 G in LF and 23 in RF; today's projected card has him in LF. Wetherholt starts at 2B but has no 2025 fielding sample carried in the table -- treat as an unknown quantity defensively. Gorman at 3B is also without a 2025 fielding row here. Crooks (14 G at C, .000 E, 1.000 Fld%) is behind the plate; Church at CF (18 G career sample, 0 E) matches his better defensive slot.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Busch Stadium hosts. Cardinals' head-to-head against the Braves the past four seasons: 2025 2-4, 2024 4-2, 2023 2-4, 2022 3-4 -- an 11-14 aggregate. Wins in Games 1 and 2 of this series put STL up 2-0 with a chance to complete the sweep this afternoon. The available head-to-head data does not carry a numeric park factor, so treat Busch as its usual neutral-to-slightly-pitcher-leaning venue historically.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Lars Nootbaar58311920.4%6411.0%
Alec Burleson5447914.5%397.2%
Masyn Winn53710219.0%346.3%
Iván Herrera4508418.7%439.6%
Jordan Walker39612631.8%297.3%
Nathan Church651827.7%34.6%
Jimmy Crooks461737.0%00.0%

Nootbaar is the plate-discipline anchor at 11.0% 2025 BB%. Burleson and Iván Herrera are steady mid-teens on K% with league-adjacent walk rates. The whiff risk sits at the bottom of the order: Walker at 31.8% 2025 K%, Church at 27.7%, and Crooks with a 37.0% 2025 K% and 0.0% 2025 BB% in a small sample -- rookie-catcher plate-approach caveats apply. Ritchie's 14.0% 2026 BB% invites patience from Nootbaar and Burleson especially.

Braves

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Matt Olson72417624.3%9112.6%
Ozzie Albies6679414.1%558.2%
Michael Harris64112820.0%162.5%
Austin Riley44712828.6%276.0%
Drake Baldwin4466815.2%388.5%
Mauricio Dubón3984210.6%246.0%
Joey Bart3329328.0%4012.0%
Kyle Farmer3006622.0%175.7%
Eli White2717025.8%114.1%
Dominic Smith2254218.7%156.7%
Jorge Mateo833036.1%44.8%

Two-track lineup on plate approach against May. High-contact bats (2025 K%): Dubón 10.6%, Albies 14.1%, Baldwin 15.2%, Smith 18.7% -- these force May into deeper counts. Whiff-prone bats (2025 K%): Mateo 36.1%, Riley 28.6%, Bart 28.0%, White 25.8% -- the strikeout paths run through the RHB group. Walk-rate leaders (2025 BB%): Olson 12.6%, Bart 12.0%. Harris's 2.5% 2025 BB% is the aggressive extreme -- attack the zone against him.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Alec Burleson39842.0%33.4%24.6%
Masyn Winn37639.6%34.0%26.3%
Lars Nootbaar37639.1%35.4%25.5%
Iván Herrera28552.6%21.8%25.6%
Jordan Walker23148.9%29.4%21.6%
Nathan Church3767.6%21.6%10.8%
Jimmy Crooks2737.0%44.4%18.5%

Cardinals hitters against Ritchie's 47.7% 2026 GB profile skew mixed: Iván Herrera 52.6% 2025 GB% and Walker 48.9% both feed the pitcher's ground tendency. Church's 67.6% 2025 GB% is the extreme case -- expect early-count grounders in his at-bat. Nootbaar, Winn, and Burleson are more balanced. Crooks' 44.4% 2025 FB% is the outlier the other way -- fly-ball tendency in a still-tiny sample.

Braves

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Ozzie Albies49338.7%37.5%23.7%
Michael Harris46052.8%23.7%23.5%
Matt Olson42042.9%31.0%26.2%
Drake Baldwin31851.6%23.9%24.5%
Mauricio Dubón31343.1%35.5%21.4%
Austin Riley27236.8%35.3%27.9%
Kyle Farmer20343.8%27.1%29.1%
Joey Bart18853.2%21.8%25.0%
Eli White17348.6%26.0%25.4%
Dominic Smith15744.6%28.7%26.8%
Jorge Mateo4847.9%35.4%16.7%

Braves ground-ball tendencies (2025 GB%): Bart 53.2%, Harris 52.8%, Baldwin 51.6%, White 48.6% -- ground contact into May's 44.1% career GB profile is a mostly-neutral fit. Riley's 27.9% 2025 LD% is the highest line-drive rate on the card and matches his .684 career LD AVG -- the swing profile most likely to produce sustained damage today. Albies (38.7% 2025 GB%, 37.5% 2025 FB%) is balanced; Olson at 42.9% 2025 GB% pairs with his .682 career LD AVG when he catches the barrel.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

PitcherIPKK%BBBB%K/BB
Dustin May132.112321.1%569.6%2.20

May -- 2026 to date: 23.0% K%, 6.5% BB%. 2025 baseline: 21.1% K%, 9.6% BB%, 2.20 K/BB across 132.1 IP. The 2026 walk rate is a real improvement over the 2025 baseline; the strikeout rate has also ticked up. Ritchie -- 2026 to date: 21.0% K%, 14.0% BB%. No 2025 baseline is in the historical sample, so the current-season profile carries the entire read; the 14.0% walk rate is the profile flag, well above the ~9% league benchmark.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Top 3 Batter-Pitcher Matchups

Austin Riley vs May. 2-for-7 career against May with both hits over the fence (.286/.286/1.143, 2 HR) -- the biggest single-batter power flag on today's card. 2025 line vs RHP (.259/.312/.431 in 346 PA) is steady damage; the BvP loudness is a small sample, but power patterns cluster and Riley's 27.9% 2025 LD% and .684 career LD AVG (2G) triangulate on the same at-bat.

Dominic Smith vs May. 1-for-3 with an HR and 2 BB (.333/.600/1.333 in 5 PA) career vs May -- the second BvP power flag. 2025 line vs RHP (.296/.343/.436 in 198 PA) is real. Career GB AVG .343 is the highest on the card, and cross-referenced with May's 44.1% career GB profile, ground contact could slip through.

Alec Burleson vs Ritchie. Burleson leads STL's LHB stack at .296/.353/.478 in 419 PA vs RHP (2025). No career BvP with Ritchie -- profile-and-platoon read. Ritchie's 14.0% 2026 BB% invites patience, and Burleson's 14.5% 2025 K% with 7.2% 2025 BB% is disciplined-enough contact to punish the mistake.

Situational edge: LHB-heavy Braves order (6 LHB plus Albies from the left side) into May's uneven career platoon (.852 OPS vs LHB in 334 PA vs .711 vs RHB in 250 PA). The platoon math is against the pitcher; the home-park cushion (3.24 vs 6.28 home/road career ERA) and May's career BvP-suppression on Olson (0-for-8, 5 K) and Albies (0-for-8, 4 K) are the counterweights.

X-factor: The May-Crooks battery is a fresh pairing -- 0 shared career IP in the historical sample. Combined with the Braves' running game (four career SB threats above 76% success), the middle innings are where a rookie catcher's pop time meets aggressive baserunning. If Harris or Mateo reaches, they run.

Watchlist

-- May TTO2/TTO3 cliff (220 PA / 137 PA). Second pass through the order jumps to .290/.370/.508/.878; third pass sits at .263/.365/.517/.882. Innings 4-6 are the leverage stretch.

-- May-Crooks battery (fresh pairing). May's battery history is Dodgers/Red Sox era -- Will Smith, Rushing, Narváez, Barnes, Wong. Today's catcher per the projected card is Jimmy Crooks with 0 shared career IP. Look for early mistake-call sequences in the first pass.

-- Braves speed on Crooks. Harris 76.9%, Mateo 88.2%, Albies 82.4%, White 90.9% (career success rates) -- a live running game against a rookie catcher.

-- Braves plate contact split. Contact-heavy 2025 K% bats: Dubón 10.6%, Albies 14.1%, Baldwin 15.2%. Whiff-prone 2025 K% bats: Mateo 36.1%, Riley 28.6%, Bart 28.0%. Sequence the middle third around the low-K bats.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Austin Riley performed against Dustin May in their career?

2. How has Alec Burleson fared against JR Ritchie in their career?

3. How has Dominic Smith performed against JoJo Romero in their career?

4. What are Dustin May's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Matt Olson's splits vs RHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?

700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025