NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Brewers59-34-W1
Cubs52-427.5L2
Cardinals49-4410.0W1
Pirates47-4712.5L2
Reds43-5016.0W1

NL EAST STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Braves54-39-L1
Phillies52-433.0L1
Marlins52-433.0L1
Nationals48-477.0L1
Mets40-5515.0L1

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

DateOppH/AResult
Jul 10ATLHomeW 2-1
Jul 9MILHomeL 4-8
Jul 8MILHomeW 5-1
Jul 7MILHomeL 3-4
Jul 7MILHomeL 2-10
Jul 6MILHomeL 3-4
Jul 5CHCAwayL 4-6
Jul 4CHCAwayW 3-0
Jul 3CHCAwayW 17-1
Jul 2ATLAwayW 11-5

STARTING PITCHERS

Matthew Liberatore (L) -- STL

2026 to date: 4-6, 5.34 ERA, 87.2 IP, 82 K, 35 BB, 1.53 WHIP, 21.0% K%, 9.0% BB%, 39.4% GB% (18 GS). 2025 baseline (career sample in this report): 18.8% K%, 6.2% BB%, 3.05 K/BB across 151.2 IP -- a step up from tonight's current-season line, and the case for expecting some regression toward that steadier profile as the second half develops.

Reynaldo López (R) -- ATL

2026 to date: 4-1, 3.18 ERA, 56.2 IP, 51 K, 24 BB, 1.27 WHIP, 21.3% K%, 10.0% BB%, 42.1% GB% (8 GS). The 2025 baseline in this report is only 5.0 IP (4.0% K%, 8.0% BB%), so the current-season ERA carries almost all the read -- tonight is one of López's steadier stretches after limited 2025 work.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-07-10)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
1Wetherholt2BL.316.894
2HerreraDHR.216.700
3Burleson1BL.340.906
4WalkerRFR.3301.089
5NootbaarLFL.138.567
6WinnSSR.227.647
7CrooksCL.3331.052
8Gorman3BL----
9ChurchCFL.268.744

Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).

Braves (Projected from 2026-07-10)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
NoneRiley3BR.253.772
NoneSmithDHL.302.842
NoneBaldwinCL.311.862
NoneWhiteRFR.241.703
NoneJarvisSSL.200.400
NoneBartCR.174.535
NoneMateoSSR.250.573
NoneFarmerDHR.200.567
NoneOlson1BL.195.695
NoneDubónLFR.359.975
NoneHarrisCFL.317.786
NoneYastrzemskiLFL.278.762
NoneAlbies2BS.333.869

Handedness: 6 RHB (Riley, White, Bart, Mateo, Farmer, Dubón), 6 LHB (Smith, Baldwin, Jarvis, Olson, Harris, Yastrzemski), 1 SHB (Albies).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster-move notes available for today. The Cardinals lineup is projected from 2026-07-10; both catchers on last night's card (Pagés, Crooks) remain on the active roster, with Crooks slotted as tonight's projected starter.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Masyn Winn320.000.333.000011
Alec Burleson320.000.000.000000
Iván Herrera110.000.000.000001

Small sample: Masyn Winn (3 PA), Alec Burleson (3 PA), Iván Herrera (1 PA).

Effectively no read: three Cardinals bats with a combined 7 PA against López in the career sample and no hits between them. Wetherholt, Walker, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, and Church have no career BvP rows -- this is a profile matchup, not a history matchup. The Cardinals lean on their platoon and TTO reads for tonight.

Bench note: No career BvP history for the bench (Pagés, Fermín, Velázquez, Jordan, Torres) against López. The starting nine carry the read.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Matt Olson661.167.167.167002
Joey Bart661.167.167.667103
Michael Harris551.200.200.400000
Ozzie Albies540.000.200.000011
Austin Riley641.250.500.250021
Kyle Farmer440.000.000.000000
Drake Baldwin2221.0001.0001.000000

Small sample: Matt Olson (6 PA), Joey Bart (6 PA), Michael Harris (5 PA), Ozzie Albies (5 PA), Austin Riley (6 PA), Kyle Farmer (4 PA), Drake Baldwin (2 PA).

Small samples across the board, but two rows stand out: Drake Baldwin is 2-for-2 with 0 K, and Joey Bart has an HR in 6 PA (.667 SLG). Austin Riley's .500 OBP is walk-driven (2 BB in 6 PA) rather than contact-driven and lines up with Liberatore's 6.2% career BB% -- a plate-discipline flag more than a BvP power flag. Olson (2 K in 6 PA) and Albies (1 K, 1 BB in 5 PA) have been managed reasonably by Lib in the tiny historical look.

Bench note: No career BvP rows for the Braves bench against Liberatore in the sample above; Yastrzemski, Dubón, Smith, Jarvis, Mateo, and White carry no history rows against him.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Alec Burleson L419.296.353.478153259
Lars Nootbaar L403.249.340.394104772
Masyn Winn R374.251.309.36872371
Iván Herrera R328.268.343.399102466
Jordan Walker R289.200.263.29142194
Nathan Church L51.114.216.1821314
Jimmy Crooks L38.108.132.1620015

Burleson is the anchor of the LHB stack at .296/.353/.478 in 419 PA vs RHP (2025). Nootbaar and Iván Herrera fill in credibly (.340 and .343 OBP respectively). The soft spots are the bottom of the order: Walker's .200 average is a sample-size warning against RHP, and Crooks (.108/.132/.162) and Church (.114/.216/.182) have thin 2025 samples that skew heavily red. Wetherholt has no 2025 vs RHP sample -- profile bet, not a history bet.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Matt Olson L216.281.333.45961660
Ozzie Albies B186.277.296.4124618
Michael Harris L183.240.265.3803539
Kyle Farmer R123.252.325.44161125
Mauricio Dubón R115.292.342.4061711
Mike Yastrzemski L104.138.204.2232722
Austin Riley R101.260.297.4174522
Eli White R96.244.292.4445624
Drake Baldwin L95.299.358.4604715
Joey Bart R86.306.419.47231426
Jorge Mateo R39.205.205.2820013
Dominic Smith L27.200.259.280014

A left-leaning Braves lineup vs Liberatore, but the biggest 2025 vs-LHP threat is a right-handed catcher: Joey Bart at .306/.419/.472 in 86 PA. Baldwin (.299/.358/.460 in 95 PA) is the biggest LHB threat and matches the BvP flag from 2B. Olson still hits LHP (.281/.333/.459 in 216 PA), so the platoon call is not automatic power-suppression. The soft spot is Yastrzemski (.138/.204/.223 in 104 PA vs LHP) -- the clearest matchup edge for Liberatore.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

PitchervsPAAVGOBPSLGOPSHRK
Matthew Liberatorevs RHB515.265.304.426.7301693
Matthew Liberatorevs LHB133.274.348.410.758329
Reynaldo Lópezvs LHB14.417.500.417.91700
Reynaldo Lópezvs RHB11.364.364.7271.09111

Liberatore has been effectively neutral by handedness in the career sample -- .730 OPS vs RHB (515 PA) and .758 vs LHB (133 PA). Against a Braves lineup fielding 6 LHB, 6 RHB, and Albies (S), the platoon lever is minimal on the pitcher's side. López's career sample is only 25 PA total across LHB and RHB, so the split noise there is high; the 2026-to-date profile (21.3% K%, 10.0% BB%, 3.18 ERA) carries the read.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

PitcherSplitBFIPERAKBBHR
Matthew LiberatoreAway33476.04.03592611
Matthew LiberatoreHome31475.23.6963148
Reynaldo LópezAway255.05.40121

Tonight's game is at Busch -- Liberatore's steadier context. 3.69 ERA at home, 4.03 on the road in the career sample, with a striking BB gap (14 at home vs 26 away in nearly identical IP). López pitches on the road tonight; the career away sample is only 5.0 IP and carries a 5.40 ERA, but the tiny denominator makes the current-season 3.18 ERA the more useful read.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PitcherTTOPAAVGSLGOPSHRKBB
Matthew LiberatoreTTO1264.237.376.65785615
Matthew LiberatoreTTO2252.310.511.87194017
Matthew LiberatoreTTO3132.244.353.6412268
Reynaldo LópezTTO19.556.8891.445100
Reynaldo LópezTTO29.375.500.944011
Reynaldo LópezTTO37.167.167.453001

Liberatore's classic vulnerable window is the second pass through the order: TTO2 OPS climbs to .871 with 9 HR in 252 PA -- innings 4-6 are the leverage stretch. TTO1 (.657 OPS) is his cleanest work, and TTO3 (.641) actually settles back down, which is the argument for letting him navigate one more time when possible. López's TTO splits are tiny samples -- 9/9/7 PA across the three passes -- so the pattern read is unreliable.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

RelieverIRScoredStrand%
Kyle Leahy291162.1%
JoJo Romero26388.5%
Matt Svanson261350.0%
Gordon Graceffo11554.5%
Riley O'Brien10370.0%
Michael McGreevy30100.0%

League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero (88.5%) is the elite bridge and the arm to spend in a tied 6th or 7th; O'Brien (70.0%) is stable. Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) are the volatile spots -- if either enters with runners on, damage is likelier than average. Leahy sits at 62.1%, slightly below league average. McGreevy's 100% is a 3-runner sample and reads as noise.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

PitcherBIPGB%FB%LD%
Matthew Liberatore46339.1%31.3%27.6%
Reynaldo López2142.9%23.8%33.3%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- ATL

HitterGB AVGLD AVGFB AVG
Ozzie Albies.236.598.076
Drake Baldwin.201.641.118
Joey Bart.280.745.098
Mauricio Dubón.222.597.099
Kyle Farmer.169.576.109
Michael Harris.230.593.101
Jorge Mateo.261.500.176
Matt Olson.261.682.154
Austin Riley.310.684.094
Dominic Smith.343.571.111
Eli White.286.455.089
Mike Yastrzemski.202.589.092

Liberatore's career profile (39.1% GB, 31.3% FB, 27.6% LD) is close to balanced -- neither extreme worm-burner nor fly-ball. Braves hitters who punish grounders and drives are the concern: Riley (.310 on GB, .684 on LD) and Smith (.343 on GB) are the two whose contact type on the ground still yields hits. Yastrzemski (.202 GB, .092 FB) is the batted-ball soft spot -- his production is line-drive dependent, which fits his .138 vs LHP line. López's 21-BIP career sample is too small to build a read from.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

CatcherGIPERAAVGOBPSLG
Pedro Pagés1575.23.93.279----
Yohel Pozo1263.24.10.259----
Jimmy Crooks211.02.45.225----

Tonight's scheduled catcher per the projected card is Jimmy Crooks (batting 7th) -- the smallest sample in the battery table (2 G, 11.0 IP, 2.45 ERA). Pedro Pagés has been Liberatore's primary pairing this stretch (15 G, 75.2 IP, 3.93 ERA), and Yohel Pozo -- carried on the historical battery table but not on tonight's active roster -- rounds out the Lib workload sample. The Crooks-Liberatore battery is functionally a fresh pairing at the big-league sample level: worth watching in the first pass for signal-sequence timing, especially with a running lineup on deck.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

The Braves lead the running-game read tonight against a rookie-catcher battery. Career SB leaders on the ATL card:

-- Michael Harris: 20 SB, 6 CS, 76.9% success rate. The most-active runner and a live threat once he reaches.

-- Jorge Mateo: 15 SB, 2 CS, 88.2%. Elite success rate; primary bench-speed weapon.

-- Ozzie Albies: 14 SB, 3 CS, 82.4%. Runs from the two-hole and turns singles into second base.

-- Eli White: 10 SB, 1 CS, 90.9%. Cleanest success rate on the card.

-- Mike Yastrzemski: 7 SB, 2 CS, 77.8%. Situational, not first-move.

Complementary threats: Dubón (3-for-3), Smith (2-for-2), Olson (1-for-1), Riley (2-for-3), Bart (1-for-2). With Crooks catching, the Braves have both volume and success-rate to force the run game -- expect first-move green lights for Harris and Mateo.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

PlayerPOSGDPEFld%
Masyn WinnSS1296430.994
Jordan WalkerRF108240.981
Lars NootbaarLF107001.000
Alec Burleson1B502740.990
Alec BurlesonLF41001.000
Alec BurlesonRF34110.983
Lars NootbaarRF23001.000
Nathan ChurchCF18001.000
Jimmy CrooksC14001.000
Iván HerreraC14010.989
Lars NootbaarCF12010.967
Nathan ChurchRF7010.833
Nathan ChurchLF5001.000
Iván HerreraLF4001.000
Alec BurlesonP100--

Winn is the anchor -- 129 G at SS, .994 Fld%, 64 DP turned. Walker's 4 E in 108 G at RF is the flag on the outfield right side. Nootbaar has been perfect (.000 E) across 107 G in LF and 23 in RF; tonight's projected card has him in LF. Wetherholt starts at 2B tonight but has no 2025 fielding sample in the table -- treat him as an unknown quantity defensively. Church is projected at CF (18 G career sample there, no errors) rather than his LF sample, which is the smaller one; the projected alignment matches Church's better defensive slot.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Busch Stadium hosts. Cardinals' head-to-head against the Braves the past four seasons: 2025 2-4, 2024 4-2, 2023 2-4, 2022 3-4 -- an 11-14 aggregate. No numeric park factor is carried in the available head-to-head data, so treat Busch as its usual neutral-to-slightly-pitcher-leaning venue historically. Last night's 2-1 Cardinals win at Busch fits that context.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Lars Nootbaar58311920.4%6411.0%
Alec Burleson5447914.5%397.2%
Masyn Winn53710219.0%346.3%
Iván Herrera4508418.7%439.6%
Jordan Walker39612631.8%297.3%
Nathan Church651827.7%34.6%
Jimmy Crooks461737.0%00.0%

Nootbaar is the plate-discipline anchor (11.0% 2025 BB%). Burleson and Iván Herrera are steady in the mid-teens on K% with league-adjacent walk rates. The whiff risk concentrates at the bottom of the order: Walker at 31.8% 2025 K%, Church at 27.7%, and Crooks with an eye-catching 37.0% K% and 0.0% BB% in a small 2025 sample -- rookie-catcher plate-approach caveats apply.

Braves

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Matt Olson72417624.3%9112.6%
Ozzie Albies6679414.1%558.2%
Michael Harris64112820.0%162.5%
Mike Yastrzemski55810819.4%7212.9%
Austin Riley44712828.6%276.0%
Drake Baldwin4466815.2%388.5%
Mauricio Dubón3984210.6%246.0%
Joey Bart3329328.0%4012.0%
Kyle Farmer3006622.0%175.7%
Eli White2717025.8%114.1%
Dominic Smith2254218.7%156.7%
Jorge Mateo833036.1%44.8%

Two-track lineup on plate approach. High-contact bats (2025 K%): Dubón at 10.6%, Albies at 14.1%, Baldwin at 15.2%, Smith at 18.7% -- Liberatore has to work hard for whiffs against the middle third. Whiff-prone bats (2025 K%): Mateo at 36.1%, Riley at 28.6%, Bart at 28.0%, White at 25.8% -- the strikeout paths run through the RHB group. Walk-rate leaders (2025 BB%): Yastrzemski 12.9%, Olson 12.6%, Bart 12.0%. Harris's 2.5% 2025 BB% is the aggressive extreme -- attack the zone against him.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Alec Burleson39842.0%33.4%24.6%
Masyn Winn37639.6%34.0%26.3%
Lars Nootbaar37639.1%35.4%25.5%
Iván Herrera28552.6%21.8%25.6%
Jordan Walker23148.9%29.4%21.6%
Nathan Church3767.6%21.6%10.8%
Jimmy Crooks2737.0%44.4%18.5%

Cardinals hitters against López's 42.9% career GB% profile skew ground-heavy: Iván Herrera at 52.6% 2025 GB% and Walker at 48.9% both feed the pitcher's tendency. Church's 67.6% 2025 GB% is the extreme case -- expect early-count grounders in that at-bat. Nootbaar and Winn are more balanced. Crooks' 44.4% 2025 FB% is the outlier the other way -- fly-ball tendency in a still-tiny sample.

Braves

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Ozzie Albies49338.7%37.5%23.7%
Michael Harris46052.8%23.7%23.5%
Matt Olson42042.9%31.0%26.2%
Mike Yastrzemski34533.0%40.9%26.1%
Drake Baldwin31851.6%23.9%24.5%
Mauricio Dubón31343.1%35.5%21.4%
Austin Riley27236.8%35.3%27.9%
Kyle Farmer20343.8%27.1%29.1%
Joey Bart18853.2%21.8%25.0%
Eli White17348.6%26.0%25.4%
Dominic Smith15744.6%28.7%26.8%
Jorge Mateo4847.9%35.4%16.7%

Braves ground-ball tendencies (2025 GB%): Bart 53.2%, Harris 52.8%, Baldwin 51.6%, White 48.6% -- the RHB pocket plays into Liberatore's 39.1% career GB profile in a mostly-neutral way. Yastrzemski (33.0% 2025 GB%, 40.9% 2025 FB%) is the biggest fly-ball tilt and cross-references with his .092 career FB AVG from 2G -- his air-ball outcomes have not translated. Riley's 27.9% 2025 LD% is the highest line-drive rate on the card, matching his .684 career LD AVG -- the swing pattern that makes him tonight's most-consistent damage risk.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

PitcherIPKK%BBBB%K/BB
Matthew Liberatore151.212218.8%406.2%3.05
Reynaldo López5.014.0%28.0%0.50

Liberatore -- 2026 to date: 21.0% K%, 9.0% BB%. 2025 baseline: 18.8% K%, 6.2% BB%, 3.05 K/BB across 151.2 IP. The 2026 walk rate is elevated relative to the 2025 baseline -- a control regression that lines up with the current-season 5.34 ERA. López -- 2026 to date: 21.3% K%, 10.0% BB%. 2025 baseline is only 5.0 IP so the 4.0% K% / 8.0% BB% / 0.50 K/BB carries almost no signal; the current-season line is the read.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Top 3 Batter-Pitcher Matchups

Drake Baldwin vs Liberatore. 2-for-2 career vs Lib with 0 K, and .299/.358/.460 in 95 PA vs LHP (2025). Cross-referenced with a .641 career LD AVG, Baldwin's line-drive contact against LHP is the most persistent threat. The 2B BvP flag matches his 2C platoon and 2G contact profile -- three independent reads pointing at the same at-bat.

Alec Burleson vs López. Burleson's 419-PA line vs RHP (.296/.353/.478, 2025) is the LHB stack's anchor. BvP is 3 PA with no hits, so this is a profile-and-platoon read. López's 21.3% K% (2026 to date) is close to Burleson's 14.5% 2025 K%, and Burleson's 42.0% 2025 GB% pairs cleanly against López's 42.9% career GB profile -- a middle-of-the-plate at-bat.

Jordan Walker vs López. The Walker-vs-RHP line (.200/.263/.291 in 289 PA, 2025) with a 31.8% 2025 K% is the swing-and-miss risk of the cleanup slot. Against a starter with López's small-sample K% history (4.0% in 5.0 IP career, 21.3% in 2026 to date), a mistake in the middle-third of the plate is still the pitch Walker damages -- but the base case is a strikeout path.

Situational edge: LHB-heavy Cardinals order (6 LHB) into López's uneven career platoon (.917 OPS vs LHB in 14 PA, but tiny). The read is the platoon lever, not the BvP.

X-factor: The Crooks-Liberatore battery. A rookie catcher paired with Lib for only 11.0 IP in the historical sample walks into a Braves lineup with 5+ live SB threats (Harris, Mateo, Albies, White, Yastrzemski). If the running game is on, the middle innings tilt.

Watchlist

-- Liberatore TTO2 window (252 PA). Second pass through the order jumps to .310/.360/.511/.871. Innings 4-6 are the leverage stretch.

-- Crooks-Liberatore battery (2 G, 11.0 IP together). Tonight's catcher per the projected card is Jimmy Crooks -- smallest sample in 2H. Look for early mistake-call sequences in the first pass.

-- Braves speed on Crooks. Harris 76.9%, Mateo 88.2%, Albies 82.4%, White 90.9% (career success rates) -- a live running game against a rookie catcher.

-- Braves plate contact split. Contact-heavy 2025 K% bats: Dubón 10.6%, Albies 14.1%, Baldwin 15.2%. Whiff-prone 2025 K% bats: Mateo 36.1%, Riley 28.6%, Bart 28.0%. Sequence the middle third around the low-K bats.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Drake Baldwin performed against Matthew Liberatore in their career?

2. How has Alec Burleson fared against Reynaldo López in their career?

3. How has Austin Riley performed against JoJo Romero in their career?

4. What are Matthew Liberatore's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Joey Bart's splits vs LHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?

700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025