NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Brewers59-34-W1
Cubs52-417.0L1
Cardinals48-4410.5L1
Pirates47-4712.5L2
Reds42-5016.5L1

NL EAST STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Braves54-38-W2
Phillies52-423.0W1
Marlins52-423.0W6
Nationals48-467.0W1
Mets40-5415.0W2

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

DateOppH/AResult
Jul 9MILHomeL 4-8
Jul 8MILHomeW 5-1
Jul 7MILHomeL 3-4
Jul 7MILHomeL 2-10
Jul 6MILHomeL 3-4
Jul 5CHCAwayL 4-6
Jul 4CHCAwayW 3-0
Jul 3CHCAwayW 17-1
Jul 2ATLAwayW 11-5
Jul 1ATLAwayL 1-5

STARTING PITCHERS

Kyle Leahy (R) -- Cardinals

2026 to date: 7-4, 3.86 ERA in 86.1 IP, 73 K / 33 BB, 1.45 WHIP, 50.6% GB rate across 17 starts. 2025 baseline: 22.0% K%, 7.7% BB%, 2.86 K/BB in 88.0 IP. Tonight's home context is his uglier one -- his home ERA is 4.47 in 44.1 IP compared to 2.68 in 43.2 IP away. His platoon skew runs the other way from most righties: 2025 vs LHB .252 AVG / .701 OPS with 3 HR in 163 PA -- worse than his .238 / .589 vs RHB.

Chris Sale (L) -- Braves

2026 to date: 9-6, 2.27 ERA in 95.0 IP, 112 K / 24 BB, 1.12 WHIP, 50.3% GB rate across 16 starts. 2025 baseline: 32.4% K%, 6.3% BB%, 5.16 K/BB in 125.2 IP -- elite strikeout-and-command profile. His 2025 vs-LHB line (.163 / .552 OPS, 32 K in 98 PA) is his signature shutdown lane; vs RHB he is more human at .233 / .644 in 412 PA. On the road tonight -- 2.18 ERA in 66.0 IP away -- his stronger context.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-07-09)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
1Wetherholt2BL.316.887
2HerreraDHR.219.708
3Burleson1BL.343.914
4WalkerRFR.3241.081
5NootbaarLFL.143.586
6WinnSSR.227.647
7CrooksCL.3331.052
8Gorman3BL----
9ChurchCFL.268.744

Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).

Braves (From active roster)

13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

PlayerPosBats
Riley3BR
SmithDHL
BaldwinCL
WhiteRFR
JarvisSSL
BartCR
MateoSSR
FarmerDHR
Olson1BL
DubónLFR
HarrisCFL
YastrzemskiLFL
Albies2BS

Handedness: 6 RHB (Riley, White, Bart, Mateo, Farmer, Dubón), 6 LHB (Smith, Baldwin, Jarvis, Olson, Harris, Yastrzemski), 1 SHB (Albies).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Cardinals lineup is projected from the 2026-07-09 card; Braves lineup is drawn from the active roster pool (no batting order set yet). No injury or roster-move data is available for tonight; play what actually posts closer to first pitch.

Series context: Game 1 of a 3-game set at Busch. Atlanta enters on a 2-game winning streak; St. Louis on a 1-game skid after losing 4-of-5 to Milwaukee.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Lars Nootbaar330.000.000.000001

Small sample: Lars Nootbaar (3 PA).

Only Nootbaar has faced Sale in the career BvP sample, and it is 3 PA with a strikeout -- essentially no history to lean on. Wetherholt, Herrera, Burleson, Walker, Winn, Crooks, Gorman, and Church all come in blind. The scouting angle has to come from Sale's 2025 vs-LHB profile (Section 2D) and Herrera's 2025 vs-LHP line (Section 2C) rather than head-to-head history.

Bench note: No bench BvP history against Sale in the career sample. Fermin, Jordan, Torres, Velazquez, and Pages are all first looks.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Austin Riley442.500.500.750001
Joey Bart331.333.333.333001
Matt Olson330.000.000.000001
Dominic Smith221.500.500.500000
Ozzie Albies220.000.000.000000
Mauricio Dubón220.000.000.000000
Mike Yastrzemski110.000.000.000000
Drake Baldwin110.000.000.000000

Small sample: Austin Riley (4 PA), Joey Bart (3 PA), Matt Olson (3 PA), Dominic Smith (2 PA), Ozzie Albies (2 PA), Mauricio Dubón (2 PA), Mike Yastrzemski (1 PA), Drake Baldwin (1 PA).

Riley (2-for-4) and Bart (1-for-3) are the two Braves with hits in the small career BvP sample against Leahy. Smith is 1-for-2. Every sample here is under 5 PA, so BvP tells only a directional story -- Riley's line pairs with his 2025 vs-RHP .259/.312/.431 (346 PA, 12 HR) and is the loudest scouting angle. Olson (0-for-3, 1 K) has no BvP hits but his 2025 vs-RHP .268/.379/.494 with 23 HR (509 PA) carries the leverage.

Bench note: Farmer, White, Jarvis, Mateo, and Harris II have no career BvP history against Leahy. All are first looks off tonight's roster pool.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Lars Nootbaar L180.201.291.28931747
Masyn Winn R163.255.313.34921131
Alec Burleson L127.271.310.3983720
Iván Herrera R124.330.455.66091918
Jordan Walker R107.255.318.3472832
Nathan Church L14.417.417.500004
Jimmy Crooks L8.250.250.625102

Sale is left-handed, so the 2025 vs-LHP sample applies. Herrera is the standout at .330/.455/.660 with 9 HR in 124 PA -- the deepest and most productive RHB profile the Cardinals carry against lefties. Winn and Walker are the two other RHB starters with usable samples (.255 and .255 AVG, respectively). Among the LHB starters, Burleson (.271/.310/.398 in 127 PA) is the exception -- everyone else struggles: Nootbaar's .201 AVG is the group's soft spot, Crooks has 8 PA, and Wetherholt and Gorman have no 2025 vs-LHP sample. Church has just 14 PA (.417) -- promising but sample-fragile.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Matt Olson L509.268.379.4942375117
Ozzie Albies B481.225.310.345124976
Michael Harris L458.252.270.420171189
Mike Yastrzemski L454.256.362.446156586
Drake Baldwin L351.267.336.472153153
Austin Riley R346.259.312.4311222106
Mauricio Dubón R283.221.267.33561731
Joey Bart R246.230.333.29612667
Dominic Smith L198.296.343.43651438
Kyle Farmer R177.211.249.3132641
Eli White R175.229.259.3865546
Jorge Mateo R44.150.227.2501417

Leahy is right-handed, so the 2025 vs-RHP sample applies. Olson leads the group at .268/.379/.494 with 23 HR (509 PA) -- the deepest LHB profile Atlanta carries against righties. Yastrzemski (.256/.362/.446, 15 HR) and Baldwin (.267/.336/.472, 15 HR) are the other two LHB with major-sample power vs RHP. On the right side, Riley (.259/.312/.431, 12 HR in 346 PA) is the anchor. Smith's 198 PA .296 line and 24-run RISP context (see roster situational) make him the pinch/DH threat with real teeth. Mateo (.150 in 44 PA) and Dubon (.221) are the soft spots against RHP.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

PitchervsPAAVGOBPSLGOPSHRK
Kyle Leahyvs LHB163.252.337.364.701337
Kyle Leahyvs RHB200.238.270.319.589243
Chris Salevs RHB412.233.294.350.6449133
Chris Salevs LHB98.163.250.302.552232

Sale's 2025 vs-LHB line (.163 AVG, .552 OPS, 32 K in 98 PA) is one of the deeper platoon suppressors in the league. Six Cardinals LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church) will be facing that lane. Sale is more human vs RHB (.233 AVG, .644 OPS in 412 PA) -- Herrera, Walker, and Winn are the three exposures on the friendly side. Leahy's platoon skews the opposite way: he is actually better vs RHB (.238 AVG, .589 OPS in 200 PA, 43 K) than vs LHB (.252, .701, 3 HR in 163 PA). Atlanta's 6-LHB pool (Smith, Baldwin, Jarvis, Olson, Harris, Yastrzemski) leans right into Leahy's weaker side.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

PitcherSplitBFIPERAKBBHR
Kyle LeahyAway17343.22.6846132
Kyle LeahyHome19044.14.4734153
Chris SaleAway26366.02.1886165
Chris SaleHome24759.22.7279166

Tonight's game is at Busch Stadium. Leahy pitching at home (4.47 ERA in 44.1 IP career), Sale pitching away (2.18 ERA in 66.0 IP career). Both start in their less flattering / more flattering context tonight -- Leahy in his uglier home context (K/9 tells the same story: 34 K in 44.1 home IP vs 46 K in 43.2 away IP), Sale in his strongest road context. The venue split argues against Leahy on the margin.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PitcherTTOPAAVGSLGOPSHRKBB
Kyle LeahyTTO1355.247.341.64557628
Kyle LeahyTTO28.125.250.375040
Chris SaleTTO1191.215.311.58346111
Chris SaleTTO2187.213.356.62346510
Chris SaleTTO3132.241.366.69733911

Leahy's 2025 sample is almost entirely the first pass through the order (355 PA, .247 AVG, .645 OPS); the second-pass sample is only 8 PA, which is not enough to lean on. In practice, Leahy has been used almost exclusively for first-pass work -- if he goes deep tonight, the second pass through the order is essentially uncharted 2025 territory. Sale's 2025 profile grinds up on each pass: .583 OPS on the first pass, .623 on the second, and .697 on the third pass through the order. He is not vulnerable early -- if the Cardinals get him to a third look in innings 7+, that is the offensive window.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

RelieverIRScoredStrand%
Kyle Leahy291162.1%
JoJo Romero26388.5%
Matt Svanson261350.0%
Gordon Graceffo11554.5%
Riley O'Brien10370.0%
Michael McGreevy30100.0%

Romero (88.5%) sits well above league average (~68-72% strand rate). Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) are the two arms most likely to concede an inherited run. Leahy himself has a 62.1% mark in 29 IR -- below the league mean, which matters if he leaves runners on when handing off. The high-leverage question tonight: if a Leahy jam develops in the fifth or sixth against Atlanta's lefty stack, is Romero available for the inherited-runner call, or does Svanson/Graceffo take the ball?

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

PitcherBIPGB%FB%LD%
Kyle Leahy24944.2%26.9%27.7%
Chris Sale29140.9%33.7%24.7%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- ATL

HitterGB AVGLD AVGFB AVG
Ozzie Albies.236.598.076
Drake Baldwin.201.641.118
Joey Bart.280.745.098
Mauricio Dubón.222.597.099
Kyle Farmer.169.576.109
Michael Harris.230.593.101
Jorge Mateo.261.500.176
Matt Olson.261.682.154
Austin Riley.310.684.094
Dominic Smith.343.571.111
Eli White.286.455.089
Mike Yastrzemski.202.589.092

Leahy's career career profile is balanced (44.2% GB, 26.9% FB, 27.7% LD in 249 BIP) -- not the extreme groundballer the Cardinals ran out yesterday. Atlanta hitters generally profile as ground-ball performers with strong LD conversion: Riley .310 on grounders (career), Smith .343, and Bart .280 all beat the average when they put the ball on the ground, which is where Leahy tends to live. The fly-ball column is where Atlanta's damage stacks -- Olson (.154 FB), Mateo (.176), and Baldwin (.118) are the biggest airborne threats, and Leahy's home FB rate is exactly the pitch he cannot afford to hang in this ballpark. Sale's 40.9% career GB rate meets a Cardinals lineup led by Herrera (52.6% GB in 2025) and Walker (48.9% GB) -- more grounders means more chances for Sale's infield to convert.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

CatcherGIPERAAVGOBPSLG
Pedro Pagés4362.03.05.225----
Yohel Pozo1316.02.25.259----
Jimmy Crooks46.18.53.346----
Iván Herrera43.06.00.308----

Tonight's scheduled catcher is Jimmy Crooks. Yohel Pozo appears in the pairing data (13 G, 16.0 IP) but is not on the current active roster; his line reflects earlier-season work. Among catchers still on the roster, Pages carries the largest sample and cleanest ERA with Leahy (43 G, 62.0 IP, 3.05 ERA, .225 AVG allowed). Crooks' 4-game / 6.1 IP pairing with Leahy has struggled -- 8.53 ERA and a .346 AVG allowed -- and Herrera's own 3.0 IP with Leahy carries a 6.00 mark. That is a fresh-battery signal against Atlanta's speed-heavy roster: fewer reps together mean pop-time calibration and signal sequencing are new territory tonight.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Atlanta is the deeper running threat in this matchup. 2025 SB leaders on the roster:

-- Michael Harris: 20 SB, 6 CS, 76.9% success rate. The team's top volume threat.

-- Jorge Mateo: 15 SB, 2 CS, 88.2% success rate. Highest efficiency among the double-digit crowd.

-- Ozzie Albies: 14 SB, 3 CS, 82.4% success rate.

-- Eli White: 10 SB, 1 CS, 90.9% success rate.

-- Mike Yastrzemski: 7 SB, 2 CS, 77.8% success rate.

-- Mauricio Dubón: 3 SB, 0 CS, 100% success rate.

-- Austin Riley: 2 SB, 1 CS, 66.7% success rate.

-- Dominic Smith: 2 SB, 0 CS, 100% success rate.

-- Matt Olson: 1 SB, 0 CS, 100% success rate.

-- Joey Bart: 1 SB, 1 CS, 50% success rate.

Cardinals catcher tonight is Crooks (4 G paired with Leahy in 2025). Given the fresh-battery context and Atlanta's four double-digit base stealers, expect one or more first-move tests early.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

PlayerPOSGDPEFld%
Masyn WinnSS1296430.994
Jordan WalkerRF108240.981
Lars NootbaarLF107001.000
Alec Burleson1B502740.990
Alec BurlesonLF41001.000
Alec BurlesonRF34110.983
Lars NootbaarRF23001.000
Nathan ChurchCF18001.000
Jimmy CrooksC14001.000
Iván HerreraC14010.989
Lars NootbaarCF12010.967
Nathan ChurchRF7010.833
Nathan ChurchLF5001.000
Iván HerreraLF4001.000
Alec BurlesonP100--

Tonight's Cardinals alignment (per the projected card): Winn at SS, Walker at RF, Nootbaar at LF, Burleson at 1B, Church in CF, Crooks behind the plate, Herrera at DH. Winn's 129 games at short with 64 DP and 3 errors (.994 Fld%) is the up-the-middle anchor. Burleson at 1B (50 G, .990) handles the corner conversions. Herrera is at DH tonight, not behind the plate -- Crooks catches. Third base (Gorman) does not appear in the fielding sample, which is worth noting against Atlanta's righty stack that hits the ball on the ground.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Busch Stadium plays historically as a pitcher-leaning venue. The available data does not carry a numeric park factor, so treat it qualitatively -- neither a home-run haven nor a bat-suppressing extreme. Recent head-to-head against Atlanta: 2-4 in 2025, 4-2 in 2024, 2-4 in 2023, 3-4 in 2022. The two clubs have alternated recent season series with Atlanta owning three of the last four. The Cardinals just won the road series in Atlanta last week (2-1, June 30 to July 2) -- the momentum from that set now shifts home for this three-game rematch.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Lars Nootbaar58311920.4%6411.0%
Alec Burleson5447914.5%397.2%
Masyn Winn53710219.0%346.3%
Iván Herrera4508418.7%439.6%
Jordan Walker39612631.8%297.3%
Nathan Church651827.7%34.6%
Jimmy Crooks461737.0%00.0%

Two 2025 K% flags on the Cardinals side against a 32.4% K%-rate lefty: Crooks (37.0%) and Walker (31.8%). Both are above the 25% high-K threshold, and Sale's strikeout stuff is where they are most exposed. Church (27.7%) is a third exposure. Herrera's 18.7% K% is the low-strikeout profile most likely to hold up in the strikeout column; Burleson's 14.5% is the anchor. Nootbaar (11.0% BB%) is the walk-anchor on the LHB side.

Braves

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Matt Olson72417624.3%9112.6%
Ozzie Albies6679414.1%558.2%
Michael Harris64112820.0%162.5%
Mike Yastrzemski55810819.4%7212.9%
Austin Riley44712828.6%276.0%
Drake Baldwin4466815.2%388.5%
Mauricio Dubón3984210.6%246.0%
Joey Bart3329328.0%4012.0%
Kyle Farmer3006622.0%175.7%
Eli White2717025.8%114.1%
Dominic Smith2254218.7%156.7%
Jorge Mateo833036.1%44.8%

Atlanta 2025 K% flags: Mateo (36.1%), Riley (28.6%), Bart (28.0%), White (25.8%) all above the 25% high-K threshold. Under a walk-rate framing the anchors are Yastrzemski (12.9% BB%), Olson (12.6%), and Bart (12.0%) -- the on-base skill Leahy needs to respect early in counts. Harris' 2.5% BB% is the low-walk profile Leahy can attack in the zone; Mateo (4.8%) and White (4.1%) join him. Dubon's 10.6% K% is the contact-first profile that most complicates Leahy's swing-and-miss game.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Alec Burleson39842.0%33.4%24.6%
Masyn Winn37639.6%34.0%26.3%
Lars Nootbaar37639.1%35.4%25.5%
Iván Herrera28552.6%21.8%25.6%
Jordan Walker23148.9%29.4%21.6%
Nathan Church3767.6%21.6%10.8%
Jimmy Crooks2737.0%44.4%18.5%

Against Sale's 2025 40.9% GB profile, the Cardinals lineup skews ground-heavy in spots -- Church (67.6% GB in a 37-BIP sample), Herrera (52.6%), and Walker (48.9%) put the ball on the ground more than most. Crooks (44.4% FB in 27 BIP) is the Cardinals' biggest fly-ball profile -- more park-factor exposure but also more slug upside if Sale hangs one. Burleson (33.4% FB) and Nootbaar (35.4% FB) are the balanced LHB profiles most likely to fit the middle of Sale's contact profile.

Braves

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Ozzie Albies49338.7%37.5%23.7%
Michael Harris46052.8%23.7%23.5%
Matt Olson42042.9%31.0%26.2%
Mike Yastrzemski34533.0%40.9%26.1%
Drake Baldwin31851.6%23.9%24.5%
Mauricio Dubón31343.1%35.5%21.4%
Austin Riley27236.8%35.3%27.9%
Kyle Farmer20343.8%27.1%29.1%
Joey Bart18853.2%21.8%25.0%
Eli White17348.6%26.0%25.4%
Dominic Smith15744.6%28.7%26.8%
Jorge Mateo4847.9%35.4%16.7%

Atlanta's 2025 profile against Leahy's 44.2% career GB rate: Yastrzemski runs the highest FB rate in the group (40.9% in 345 BIP) -- exactly the profile that eats up Leahy's home starts if he leaves one in the middle third. Albies (37.5% FB), Dubon (35.5%), and Mateo (35.4%) round out the fly-heavy tendencies. On the ground-heavy side, Harris (52.8% GB), Bart (53.2%), and Baldwin (51.6%) fit Leahy's contact-forward profile more favorably. Riley's 27.9% LD rate is the line-drive threat -- when he squares one up, damage follows.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

PitcherIPKK%BBBB%K/BB
Chris Sale125.216532.4%326.3%5.16
Kyle Leahy88.08022.0%287.7%2.86

Two very different profiles. Sale 2026 to date: 28.6% K%, 6.1% BB% (112 K / 24 BB in 95.0 IP). Sale 2025 baseline: 32.4% K%, 6.3% BB%, 5.16 K/BB ratio in 125.2 IP -- elite command-and-miss. Leahy 2026 to date: 19.3% K%, 8.7% BB% (73 K / 33 BB in 86.1 IP). Leahy 2025 baseline: 22.0% K%, 7.7% BB%, 2.86 K/BB ratio in 88.0 IP -- solid but nowhere near Sale's tier. The K/BB gap (5.16 vs 2.86 in 2025) is the shape of the mismatch: Sale forces damage-or-nothing at-bats far more consistently than Leahy does.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Herrera vs Sale (Section 2C). Herrera's 2025 vs-LHP line (.330/.455/.660, 9 HR in 124 PA) is the clearest Cardinals edge in this game. Sale's vs-LHB line (.163 AVG in 98 PA, Section 2D) is a shutdown lane, but Herrera profiles as the exception -- an 18 K / 19 BB split in 124 PA vs lefties says he does not chase the two-strike weapons that make Sale.

Austin Riley vs Leahy (Section 2B). 2-for-4 in the career BvP sample against Leahy with 1 K. Pair with Section 2C: Riley's 2025 vs-RHP is .259/.312/.431 with 12 HR (346 PA). His 27.9% LD rate (Section 2M) is the danger-mode.

Olson & Yastrzemski vs Leahy (Section 2C). The top of Atlanta's LHB stack against Leahy's weaker platoon side (2025 vs LHB: .252 AVG, .701 OPS, 3 HR in 163 PA). Olson's .268/.379/.494 vs RHP with 23 HR in 509 PA is the deepest LHB profile in the group; Yastrzemski's 40.9% FB rate is the biggest Busch fly-ball concern.

Situational edges. Cardinals' Romero (88.5% strand, Section 2F) is the leverage arm against Atlanta's traffic-heavy lineup. Defensively (Section 2J), Winn at SS anchors the groundball conversion behind a Leahy start.

X-factor. Third pass through the order (Section 2E). Sale's 2025 line degrades on each pass -- .583 OPS on the first, .623 on the second, .697 on the third pass through the order. If the Cardinals get him to a third look in innings 7+, that is the offensive window. Leahy's own 2025 second-pass sample is only 8 PA, so tonight's second-pass work is uncharted for him this season.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Ivan Herrera performed against Chris Sale in their career?

2. How has Kyle Leahy fared against Austin Riley in their career?

3. How has Matt Olson performed against Kyle Leahy in their career?

4. What are Chris Sale's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Ivan Herrera's splits vs LHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?

700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025