NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

Team	W-L	GB	Strk
Brewers	58-34	-	L1
Cubs	52-40	6.0	W3
Cardinals	48-43	9.5	W1
Pirates	47-46	11.5	L1
Reds	42-49	15.5	W1

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

Date	Opp	H/A	Result
Jul 8	MIL	Home	W 5-1
Jul 7	MIL	Home	L 3-4
Jul 7	MIL	Home	L 2-10
Jul 6	MIL	Home	L 3-4
Jul 5	CHC	Away	L 4-6
Jul 4	CHC	Away	W 3-0
Jul 3	CHC	Away	W 17-1
Jul 2	ATL	Away	W 11-5
Jul 1	ATL	Away	L 1-5
Jun 30	ATL	Away	W 5-3

STARTING PITCHERS

Andre Pallante (R) -- Cardinals

2026 to date: 10-5, 3.60 ERA in 95.0 IP, 70 K / 27 BB, 1.22 WHIP, 60.2% GB rate across 17 starts. He is the club's most durable groundball workload and his 2026 season line is well ahead of his career norm. 2025 baseline: 15.5% K%, 8.7% BB%, 1.79 K/BB in 162.2 IP. Signature profile is heavy contact-and-ground -- 61.2% GB in the career sample -- which puts pressure on the infield defense to convert.

Logan Henderson -- Brewers

2026 to date: 2-1, 2.74 ERA in 23.0 IP, 30 K / 6 BB, 1.04 WHIP across 5 starts. Very short profile overall -- 25.1 IP in the 2025 sample too. That 2025 line: 33.3% K%, 8.1% BB%, 4.13 K/BB. Extreme air-ball tendency (21.8% GB, 47.3% FB career), meaning fewer worm-burners than Pallante and more decisions in the outfield.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-07-08)

#	Player	Pos	Bats	2026 RISP AVG	2026 RISP OPS
1	Wetherholt	2B	L	.316	.887
2	Herrera	DH	R	.222	.717
3	Burleson	1B	L	.350	.931
4	Walker	RF	R	.327	1.075
5	Nootbaar	LF	L	.115	.558
6	Winn	SS	R	.227	.647
7	Crooks	C	L	.333	1.052
8	Gorman	3B	L	--	--
9	Church	CF	L	.275	.762

Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).

Brewers (Projected from 2026-07-08)

#	Player	Pos	Bats	2026 RISP AVG	2026 RISP OPS
None	Vaughn	1B	R	.265	.747
None	Perkins	CF	S	--	--
None	Turang	2B	L	.325	1.013
None	Yelich	DH	L	.286	.777
None	Pratt	SS	R	.111	.349
None	Hamilton	3B	L	--	--
None	Mitchell	CF	L	.319	.954
None	Sánchez	C	R	.262	.992
None	Chourio	LF	R	.254	.691
None	Bauers	1B	L	.300	1.066
None	Ortiz	SS	R	.218	.652
None	Frelick	RF	L	.227	.545
None	Contreras	C	R	.281	.812

Handedness: 6 RHB (Vaughn, Pratt, Sánchez, Chourio, Ortiz, Contreras), 6 LHB (Turang, Yelich, Hamilton, Mitchell, Bauers, Frelick), 1 SHB (Perkins).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

Both lineup cards are projected from the prior day's game. No injury or roster-move data is available for tonight; play what actually posts closer to first pitch.

Series context: Milwaukee leads the 5-game set 3-1. Tonight is the finale at Busch.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

No data available for this section.

No Cardinals batter has ever faced Logan Henderson in the career BvP sample -- Henderson has only 25.1 IP on record, so the empty sheet is expected, not a data gap. The scouting angle has to come from his 2025 splits (Section 2D, 2E) rather than history.

Bench note: No bench BvP history against Henderson either. Fermin, Jordan, Velazquez, Pages, and Torres are all first looks.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

Player	PA	AB	H	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
Brice Turang	13	13	5	.385	.385	.462	0	0	1
Christian Yelich	12	12	2	.167	.167	.417	1	0	3
William Contreras	13	12	3	.250	.308	.583	1	1	1
Sal Frelick	11	9	1	.111	.273	.222	0	2	0
Jackson Chourio	11	5	3	.600	.727	1.000	0	5	1
Garrett Mitchell	6	5	2	.400	.500	.400	0	1	1
Joey Ortiz	6	4	1	.250	.250	.250	0	0	0
Jake Bauers	5	3	1	.333	.600	.667	0	2	2
Gary Sánchez	2	2	1	.500	.500	.500	0	0	0

Small sample: Garrett Mitchell (6 PA), Joey Ortiz (6 PA), Jake Bauers (5 PA), Gary Sánchez (2 PA).

Chourio has done everything but hit a homer against Pallante: 3-for-5 with 5 walks in 11 career PA (.727 OBP, 1.000 SLG). That is the one at-bat to circle every time he stands in. Turang (5-for-13, .385) is the other real threat -- also with essentially no swing-and-miss (1 K). Yelich and Contreras each own a career HR off Pallante in double-digit PA, which is why the .167 and .250 averages still look scary in the SLG column.

Bench note: Bauers (5 PA, .333/.600/.667) and Mitchell (6 PA, .400/.500/.400) both have promising small samples if they enter late. Ortiz (.250) and Sanchez (2 PA) are neutral.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
Alec Burleson L	419	.296	.353	.478	15	32	59
Lars Nootbaar L	403	.249	.340	.394	10	47	72
Masyn Winn R	374	.251	.309	.368	7	23	71
Iván Herrera R	328	.268	.343	.399	10	24	66
Jordan Walker R	289	.200	.263	.291	4	21	94
Nathan Church L	51	.114	.216	.182	1	3	14
Jimmy Crooks L	38	.108	.132	.162	0	0	15

Henderson is right-handed, so the 2025 vs-RHP sample is what applies. Burleson leads the group at .296/.353/.478 in 419 PA -- the deepest and cleanest lefty profile Cardinals have. Nootbaar's OBP (.340) plays even when the average dips. Walker is the RHB most exposed, .200 in 289 PA vs RHP. Wetherholt and Gorman have no 2025 vs-RHP sample yet, and both start tonight -- they are profile bets, not history bets.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	BB	K
William Contreras R	502	.263	.349	.409	14	59	92
Brice Turang L	489	.274	.352	.447	16	53	117
Jackson Chourio R	464	.249	.283	.435	16	20	91
Christian Yelich L	461	.271	.356	.493	25	51	114
Sal Frelick L	442	.278	.342	.421	12	38	59
Joey Ortiz R	380	.203	.261	.272	5	26	57
Andrew Vaughn R	335	.227	.272	.385	12	19	64
Jake Bauers L	214	.244	.360	.428	8	31	56
Gary Sánchez R	59	.245	.322	.491	4	2	16
Garrett Mitchell L	54	.208	.278	.333	0	5	21

Pallante is right-handed. Milwaukee's 2025 vs-RHP profiles read heavy at the top -- Contreras .263/.349/.409, Turang .274/.352/.447, Yelich .271/.356/.493 with 25 HR. Chourio has the loudest slug (.435) in 464 PA. Ortiz (.203) and Mitchell (.208) are the two soft spots in the split. Perkins and Hamilton have no 2025 vs-RHP sample.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

Pitcher	vs	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	K
Logan Henderson	vs LHB	60	.167	.250	.352	.602	3	18
Logan Henderson	vs RHB	39	.216	.256	.216	.472	0	15
Andre Pallante	vs LHB	347	.266	.329	.434	.763	10	60
Andre Pallante	vs RHB	368	.275	.345	.429	.774	11	51

Henderson runs a small but strong platoon profile: .167 AVG / .602 OPS vs LHB in 60 PA, with 3 HR allowed being the only worry point, and .216 / .472 OPS vs RHB in 39 PA. The Cardinals stack 6 LHB tonight -- historically Henderson's stronger side by average, but also the side where his 3 HR have landed. Pallante is essentially neutral (.774 vs RHB, .763 vs LHB), which fits his heavy-contact ground-ball profile.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Pitcher	Split	BF	IP	ERA	K	BB	HR
Logan Henderson	Away	59	14.1	2.51	17	5	2
Logan Henderson	Home	40	11.0	0.82	16	3	1
Andre Pallante	Away	375	84.2	4.89	67	35	11
Andre Pallante	Home	340	78.0	5.42	44	27	10

Tonight's game is at Busch Stadium. Henderson pitching away (2.51 ERA in 14.1 IP road career), Pallante pitching at home (5.42 ERA in 78.0 IP career). Pallante's split is the outlier here: he has actually been meaningfully worse at home than on the road across the career sample, and the K/9 tells the same story (44 K in 78 home IP vs 67 K in 84.2 road IP).

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

Pitcher	TTO	PA	AVG	SLG	OPS	HR	K	BB
Logan Henderson	TTO1	45	.143	.214	.414	1	17	3
Logan Henderson	TTO2	45	.268	.439	.772	2	11	4
Logan Henderson	TTO3	9	.000	.000	.111	0	5	1
Andre Pallante	TTO1	279	.266	.393	.720	6	35	21
Andre Pallante	TTO2	270	.309	.487	.868	8	46	27
Andre Pallante	TTO3	166	.217	.408	.691	7	30	14

Both starters share a second-pass problem in 2025. Henderson: .143 AVG on the first pass through the order, .268 AVG on the second pass -- and the third-pass sample (9 PA) is basically nonexistent because he has not been asked to work that deep. Pallante's second-pass line is worse -- .309 / .868 OPS -- and his third-pass numbers actually rebound (.217 AVG). Both games likely turn in innings 4-6.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

Reliever	IR	Scored	Strand%
Kyle Leahy	29	11	62.1%
JoJo Romero	26	3	88.5%
Matt Svanson	26	13	50.0%
Gordon Graceffo	11	5	54.5%
Riley O'Brien	10	3	70.0%
Michael McGreevy	3	0	100.0%

Romero (88.5%) sits well above league average (~68-72% strand rate). Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) are the two arms most likely to concede an inherited run. The decision point tonight is who Marmol reaches for if Pallante puts runners on in the fifth or sixth -- Romero is the answer that keeps damage contained; the other two open the door.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

Pitcher	BIP	GB%	FB%	LD%
Logan Henderson	55	21.8%	47.3%	29.1%
Andre Pallante	515	61.2%	18.3%	19.6%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- MIL

Hitter	GB AVG	LD AVG	FB AVG
Jake Bauers	.188	.765	.070
Jackson Chourio	.307	.581	.101
William Contreras	.241	.651	.067
Sal Frelick	.269	.682	.076
Garrett Mitchell	.200	.636	.182
Joey Ortiz	.281	.449	.087
Gary Sánchez	.222	1.000	.000
Brice Turang	.327	.609	.077
Andrew Vaughn	.197	.659	.059
Christian Yelich	.245	.632	.125

Pallante's 61.2% career GB rate collides with a Milwaukee lineup led by ground-ball hitters. Yelich hits the ball on the ground more than most (62.3% GB in 2025) and gets very little out of his fly balls (.125 career on FB). That is a Pallante-friendly profile. The exception is Chourio, whose GB average (.307 career) is the highest in the group -- a groundball off Pallante is not a certain out from his bat. Turang's .327 GB AVG is the same problem. On the Cardinals side, Henderson's 47.3% career FB rate meets a lineup with modest fly-ball tendencies (Nootbaar 35.4%, Burleson 33.4% in 2025) -- more flies means more park factor exposure.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

Catcher	G	IP	ERA	AVG	OBP	SLG
Pedro Pagés	15	76.1	4.60	.257	--	--
Yohel Pozo	8	37.2	6.93	.303	--	--
Jimmy Crooks	5	23.1	4.24	.258	--	--
Iván Herrera	5	23.2	4.56	.271	--	--

Tonight's scheduled catcher is Jimmy Crooks. Yohel Pozo appears in the pairing data (8 G, 37.2 IP) but is not on the current active roster; his line reflects earlier-season work. Among catchers still on the roster, Crooks has the lowest ERA with Pallante (4.24 in 5 games) and Herrera (4.56) is close behind. Pages carries the largest sample (15 G, 4.60 ERA). Small samples throughout -- this is a call-sequencing story more than an ERA story, and Crooks is the reader to trust with his 2025 pairing.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Milwaukee is the running team in this matchup. 2025 SB leaders in the lineup:

-- Brice Turang: 24 SB, 8 CS, 75.0% success rate. The lineup's top volume threat.

-- Jackson Chourio: 21 SB, 7 CS, 75.0% success rate. Danger-bat and danger-runner in one.

-- Sal Frelick: 19 SB, 6 CS, 76.0% success rate.

-- Christian Yelich: 16 SB, 6 CS, 72.7% success rate.

-- Joey Ortiz: 14 SB, 3 CS, 82.4% success rate.

-- Jake Bauers: 8 SB, 1 CS, 88.9% success rate.

-- William Contreras: 6 SB, 4 CS, 60.0% success rate.

-- Garrett Mitchell: 3 SB, 0 CS, 100% success rate.

Cardinals catcher is Crooks, and Pallante's 60.2% GB rate this year has kept opposing runners in check by design -- fewer strikes on the ground means fewer stealing situations. The tension tonight is whether the Brewers cash in the running-game leverage on any early walk or single.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

Player	POS	G	DP	E	Fld%
Masyn Winn	SS	129	64	3	0.994
Jordan Walker	RF	108	2	4	0.981
Lars Nootbaar	LF	107	0	0	1.000
Alec Burleson	1B	50	27	4	0.990
Alec Burleson	LF	41	0	0	1.000
Alec Burleson	RF	34	1	1	0.983
Lars Nootbaar	RF	23	0	0	1.000
Nathan Church	CF	18	0	0	1.000
Jimmy Crooks	C	14	0	0	1.000
Iván Herrera	C	14	0	1	0.989
Lars Nootbaar	CF	12	0	1	0.967
Nathan Church	RF	7	0	1	0.833
Nathan Church	LF	5	0	0	1.000
Iván Herrera	LF	4	0	0	1.000
Alec Burleson	P	1	0	0	--

Tonight's Cardinals alignment (per the projected card): Winn at SS, Walker at RF, Nootbaar at LF, Burleson at 1B, Church in CF, Crooks behind the plate. With Pallante on the mound and a 60.2% GB rate this year, the infield does the heaviest lifting -- Winn's 129 games at short with 64 DP and just 3 E (.994 Fld%) is the anchor. Burleson at 1B (50 G, .990) is the other big groundball converter. Church in CF has a clean 18-game sample. Herrera is at DH tonight, not behind the plate.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Busch Stadium plays historically as a pitcher-leaning venue. The available data does not carry a numeric park factor, so treat it qualitatively -- neither a home-run haven nor a bat-suppressing extreme. Recent head-to-head against Milwaukee: 6-7 in 2025, 5-8 in 2024, 5-8 in 2023, 10-9 in 2022. The Brewers have won each of the last three season series. Tonight's 5-game set is set to fall to Milwaukee 3-2 or 4-1 depending on the result.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

Player	PA	K	K%	BB	BB%
Lars Nootbaar	583	119	20.4%	64	11.0%
Alec Burleson	544	79	14.5%	39	7.2%
Masyn Winn	537	102	19.0%	34	6.3%
Iván Herrera	450	84	18.7%	43	9.6%
Jordan Walker	396	126	31.8%	29	7.3%
Nathan Church	65	18	27.7%	3	4.6%
Jimmy Crooks	46	17	37.0%	0	0.0%

Two 2025 K% flags on the Cardinals side: Crooks (37.0%) and Walker (31.8%) both above the 25% high-K threshold. Nootbaar (11.0% BB%) is the walk anchor. Crooks' 0.0% BB% in 46 PA is a small-sample outlier to note against a strike-thrower like Henderson.

Brewers

Player	PA	K	K%	BB	BB%
Brice Turang	659	150	22.8%	66	10.0%
William Contreras	659	120	18.2%	84	12.7%
Christian Yelich	644	167	25.9%	64	9.9%
Sal Frelick	590	80	13.6%	47	8.0%
Jackson Chourio	589	121	20.5%	30	5.1%
Joey Ortiz	506	74	14.6%	27	5.3%
Andrew Vaughn	447	80	17.9%	31	6.9%
Jake Bauers	218	59	27.1%	32	14.7%
Gary Sánchez	101	27	26.7%	4	4.0%
Garrett Mitchell	78	25	32.1%	7	9.0%

Milwaukee 2025 K% flags: Mitchell (32.1%), Bauers (27.1%), Sanchez (26.7%), Yelich (25.9%) all above 25%. Contreras (12.7% BB%) and Bauers (14.7%) are the walk anchors -- Bauers' combination of 27.1% K% and 14.7% BB% is a true three-true-outcomes profile. Chourio's 5.1% BB% is the surprise given his walk pattern against Pallante specifically.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

Player	BIP	GB%	FB%	LD%
Alec Burleson	398	42.0%	33.4%	24.6%
Masyn Winn	376	39.6%	34.0%	26.3%
Lars Nootbaar	376	39.1%	35.4%	25.5%
Iván Herrera	285	52.6%	21.8%	25.6%
Jordan Walker	231	48.9%	29.4%	21.6%
Nathan Church	37	67.6%	21.6%	10.8%
Jimmy Crooks	27	37.0%	44.4%	18.5%

Against Henderson's fly-heavy 2025 profile, the Cardinals lineup skews groundball. Church (67.6% GB in a 37-BIP sample) and Herrera (52.6%) are the top ground-ball bats -- worst matchup fit against a pitcher whose damage is on the ground (21.8% career GB, but grounders go for a .188+ AVG against him). Crooks' 44.4% FB rate is the Cardinals' biggest fly-ball profile -- more park-factor exposure but also more slug upside if Henderson hangs one.

Brewers

Player	BIP	GB%	FB%	LD%
Sal Frelick	458	47.8%	28.8%	23.4%
William Contreras	454	53.1%	22.9%	24.0%
Jackson Chourio	426	45.1%	30.3%	24.6%
Brice Turang	424	48.3%	24.5%	27.1%
Christian Yelich	400	62.3%	14.0%	23.8%
Joey Ortiz	400	46.3%	31.5%	22.3%
Andrew Vaughn	334	44.0%	30.5%	25.4%
Jake Bauers	125	38.4%	34.4%	27.2%
Gary Sánchez	59	45.8%	37.3%	16.9%
Garrett Mitchell	42	47.6%	26.2%	26.2%

Milwaukee's 2025 profile is groundball-heavy -- Yelich (62.3%) and Contreras (53.1%) at the top -- which pairs unfavorably against Pallante's 60.2% 2026 GB rate. This is a Pallante-friendly matchup structurally. Bauers has the most air-heavy profile (34.4% FB, 27.2% LD in 2025) and is the profile that can turn on Pallante's rare mistakes. Chourio and Turang are more balanced but their line-drive rates (24.6% and 27.1%) are the reason both have shown up in the BvP threat window.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

Pitcher	IP	K	K%	BB	BB%	K/BB
Andre Pallante	162.2	111	15.5%	62	8.7%	1.79
Logan Henderson	25.1	33	33.3%	8	8.1%	4.13

Very different profiles. Pallante 2026 to date: 17.6% K%, 6.8% BB%. Pallante 2025 baseline: 15.5% K%, 8.7% BB%, 1.79 K/BB -- contact-and-ground, not a strikeout arm. Henderson's 2025 baseline is the opposite -- 33.3% K% and a 4.13 K/BB ratio -- but on only 25.1 IP, so the ratio is not yet load-bearing. His 2026 line so far (30 K, 6 BB in 23.0 IP) tracks the same story on an even smaller sample.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Chourio vs Pallante (Section 2B). 11 career PA, .600 AVG, 5 walks -- the highest-leverage matchup in the game. Pair with Section 2E: Pallante's .868 second-pass OPS in 2025 amplifies the danger on Chourio's second look.

Turang vs Pallante (Section 2B). 5-for-13 (.385) with no walks and one strikeout in the career sample. Section 2I baserunning: Turang's 24 SB in 2025 turn even a single into a run-scoring position.

Burleson vs Henderson (Section 2C, 2L). Burleson's 2025 vs-RHP line (.296/.353/.478 in 419 PA, 14.5% K%) is the LHB profile most likely to handle Henderson's strikeout rate. He is the Cardinals' clearest edge against the opposing starter.

Situational edges. Cardinals' Romero (88.5% strand, Section 2F) is the leverage arm against Milwaukee's traffic-heavy lineup. Defensively (Section 2J), Winn at SS anchors the groundball conversion behind a Pallante start.

X-factor. Second pass through the order (Section 2E). Both starters have their 2025 vulnerability in the same window: Henderson's .268 AVG on the second pass, Pallante's .868 OPS on the second pass. Whichever offense cashes in the innings 4-6 leverage first likely takes the series finale.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Jackson Chourio performed against Andre Pallante in their career?

2. How has Andre Pallante fared against Brice Turang in their career?

3. How has Alec Burleson performed against Logan Henderson in their career?

4. What are Andre Pallante's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Alec Burleson's splits vs RHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?