NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Brewers58-33-W4
Cubs51-407.0W2
Cardinals47-4310.5L4
Pirates47-4511.5W3
Reds41-4916.5L1

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

DateOppH/AResult
Jul 7MILHomeL 3-4
Jul 7MILHomeL 2-10
Jul 6MILHomeL 3-4
Jul 5CHCAwayL 4-6
Jul 4CHCAwayW 3-0
Jul 3CHCAwayW 17-1
Jul 2ATLAwayW 11-5
Jul 1ATLAwayL 1-5
Jun 30ATLAwayW 5-3
Jun 28MIAHomeW 2-1

STARTING PITCHERS

Michael McGreevy (R, 3.12 ERA). 95.1 IP across 17 starts. 60 K, 22 BB, 1.11 WHIP, 84 H, 13 HR. Ground-ball leaning (52.1% GB) with modest whiff rates (15.9% K%) and sharp control (5.8% BB%). Contact management first, misses second.

Kyle Harrison (L, 2.82 ERA). 79.2 IP across 16 starts. 99 K, 20 BB, 1.08 WHIP, 66 H, 9 HR. Elite strikeouts (30.6% K%) with a manageable 6.2% BB%. Fly-ball leaning at 40.0% GB -- an unusual high-K / non-GB profile.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-07-07)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
1Wetherholt2BL.316.887
2HerreraDHR.225.726
3Burleson1BL.337.871
4WalkerRFR.3201.057
5NootbaarLFL.115.558
6WinnSSR.227.647
7CrooksCL.3331.052
8Gorman3BL----
9ChurchCFL.275.762

Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).

Brewers (Projected from 2026-07-07)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
NoneVaughn1BR.271.762
NonePerkinsCFS----
NoneTurang2BL.3251.013
NoneYelichDHL.286.777
NonePrattSSR.111.357
NoneHamilton3BL----
NoneMitchellCFL.310.940
NoneSánchezCR.262.992
NoneChourioLFR.254.691
NoneBauers1BL.3001.066
NoneOrtizSSR.218.652
NoneFrelickRFL.230.552
NoneContrerasCR.284.820

Handedness: 6 RHB (Vaughn, Pratt, Sánchez, Chourio, Ortiz, Contreras), 6 LHB (Turang, Yelich, Hamilton, Mitchell, Bauers, Frelick), 1 SHB (Perkins).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster-move information is available for today.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

No data available for this section.

Every projected Cardinals starter faces Harrison without a career BvP sample -- a first look for the full lineup. Tonight is a profile-first read: Harrison's 2025 K% at 24.4% and his vs-LHB HR history (3 HR in 47 PA in 2025) shape the read, not history.

Bench note: No career BvP sample against Harrison for any bench batter (Torres, Fermín, Jordan, Velázquez, Pagés).

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

No data available for this section.

Milwaukee's projected lineup has no career BvP sample against McGreevy either. The matchup runs blind on both sides, which puts the profile numbers -- McGreevy's 2025 vs-LHB .911 OPS allowed, Harrison's 2025 K%/BB% mix -- at the center of the scouting read.

Bench note: No career BvP sample against McGreevy for any Brewers batter (bench options include Perkins, Sánchez, Lara, Jones, and depth pieces).

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Lars Nootbaar L180.201.291.28931747
Masyn Winn R163.255.313.34921131
Alec Burleson L127.271.310.3983720
Iván Herrera R124.330.455.66091918
Jordan Walker R107.255.318.3472832
Nathan Church L14.417.417.500004
Jimmy Crooks L8.250.250.625102

Against Harrison (L) tonight, the 2025 vs-LHP sample flips the lineup's leverage toward the 3 RHB. Herrera (.330/.455/.660 with 9 HR in 124 PA) is the game-changing RHB in this matchup -- an extreme platoon edge. Winn (.255/.313/.349) and Walker (.255/.318/.347) round out the RHB with useful, unspectacular numbers. Nootbaar's 180 PA vs LHP at .201/.291/.289 is the lineup's clearest platoon liability; Church's 14 PA at .417 is too thin to lean on. Six LHB face a LHP -- the platoon math is against Cardinals depth.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
William Contreras R502.263.349.409145992
Brice Turang L489.274.352.4471653117
Jackson Chourio R464.249.283.435162091
Christian Yelich L461.271.356.4932551114
Sal Frelick L442.278.342.421123859
Joey Ortiz R380.203.261.27252657
Andrew Vaughn R335.227.272.385121964
Jake Bauers L214.244.360.42883156
Gary Sánchez R59.245.322.4914216
Garrett Mitchell L54.208.278.3330521

Against McGreevy (R) tonight, Milwaukee's 2025 vs-RHP sample is deep and dangerous. Contreras (.263/.349/.409 in 502 PA), Turang (.274/.352/.447 with 16 HR), Yelich (.271/.356/.493 with 25 HR), and Frelick (.278/.342/.421) all carry above-average lines. Bauers (.244/.360/.428) adds a walk-heavy secondary threat. Ortiz (.203/.261/.272) and Mitchell (.208/.278/.333) are the discount matchups -- attack for outs. The 6 RHB in the projected lineup are where McGreevy's platoon strength lives.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

PitchervsPAAVGOBPSLGOPSHRK
Kyle Harrisonvs RHB109.255.358.362.720128
Kyle Harrisonvs LHB47.234.234.489.723310
Michael McGreevyvs LHB190.318.368.543.911927
Michael McGreevyvs RHB210.225.255.325.580331

Harrison's 2025 platoon splits show a rare LHP quirk: his vs-RHB sample (.255/.358/.362) leaks on-base without much slugging, while his vs-LHB sample (.234/.234/.489) allows almost no walks but 3 HR in 47 PA. The Cardinals' 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn) will look to work counts; the 6 LHB need to keep the ball off the barrel.

McGreevy's 2025 vs-LHB line (.318/.368/.543, .911 OPS) is the collision -- Milwaukee's 6 LHB include Yelich (25 HR vs RHP in 2025), Bauers (8 HR), and Turang (16 HR). His vs-RHB line (.225/.255/.325, .580 OPS) is elite by comparison, keeping the 6 RHB in the projected MIL lineup as the more manageable half.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

PitcherSplitBFIPERAKBBHR
Kyle HarrisonAway10526.02.0827103
Kyle HarrisonHome519.28.381141
Michael McGreevyAway18845.23.552496
Michael McGreevyHome21250.05.2234116

Tonight's game is at Busch Stadium -- McGreevy pitching at home (5.22 ERA in 50.0 IP), Harrison pitching away (2.08 ERA in 26.0 IP). Both directions favor the more meaningful side of each pitcher's split: Harrison's road number is his ceiling, McGreevy's home number is his floor. That framing sits at the center of the matchup before a single pitch.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PitcherTTOPAAVGSLGOPSHRKBB
Kyle HarrisonTTO184.222.403.73622512
Kyle HarrisonTTO257.218.291.5371101
Kyle HarrisonTTO315.500.8571.390131
Michael McGreevyTTO1154.282.465.7925228
Michael McGreevyTTO2152.271.417.7154146
Michael McGreevyTTO394.241.379.6773226

Harrison's 2025 second pass through the order is his lockdown zone (.218/.246/.291, .537 OPS in 57 PA). His third pass through the order at .500/.533/.857 is a 15 PA sample -- thin -- but flags a cliff on the third pass. If the Cardinals reach a third pass through the order (innings 7+), that is the exploit window. Harrison's first pass through the order at .222/.333/.403 is above average; his early-game control is where the walks show up (12 BB in 84 PA).

McGreevy's 2025 TTO progression is unusually flat: .792 OPS (first pass), .715 (second pass), .677 (third pass). His third pass through the order is his best window -- an anti-typical profile. Milwaukee should target the first pass rather than wait for a fade that does not arrive.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

RelieverIRScoredStrand%
Kyle Leahy291162.1%
JoJo Romero26388.5%
Matt Svanson261350.0%
Gordon Graceffo11554.5%
Riley O'Brien10370.0%
Michael McGreevy30100.0%

Romero (88.5% strand in 26 IR chances) and O'Brien (70.0% in 10) are the clean bullpen leverage arms in 2025. Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) are the danger side -- inherited-runner situations they enter tend to score. League average strand rate: ~68-72%. If McGreevy's home ERA holds and he leaves runners on, the choice of relief arm decides the game.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

PitcherBIPGB%FB%LD%
Kyle Harrison9938.4%29.3%29.3%
Michael McGreevy30749.2%25.7%24.4%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- MIL

HitterGB AVGLD AVGFB AVG
Jake Bauers.188.765.070
Jackson Chourio.307.581.101
William Contreras.241.651.067
Sal Frelick.269.682.076
Garrett Mitchell.200.636.182
Joey Ortiz.281.449.087
Gary Sánchez.2221.000.000
Brice Turang.327.609.077
Andrew Vaughn.197.659.059
Christian Yelich.245.632.125

McGreevy's career 49.2% GB profile meets a Brewers lineup with genuine GB tendency at the top: Yelich (62.3% 2025 GB), Contreras (53.1%), Turang (48.3%). That is a GB-on-GB collision that has hurt Yelich in career grounders (.245 career GB AVG). On Harrison's side, the fly-ball tendency and 38.4% career GB rate suggest RHB in the Cardinals lineup (Walker's 2025 48.9% GB, Herrera 52.6%) will hit into a more balanced batted-ball pattern than a strict FB-pitcher matchup.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

CatcherGIPERAAVGOBPSLG
Pedro Pagés1480.24.24.266----
Jimmy Crooks28.29.35.385----
Yohel Pozo15.20.00.056----

McGreevy's 2025 catcher pairings are dominated by Pedro Pagés (14 games, 80.2 IP, 4.24 ERA), his primary battery. Tonight's projected catcher is Jimmy Crooks (2 games, 8.2 IP together, 9.35 ERA) -- a small paired sample. Yohel Pozo is not on the current active roster, so his 5.2 IP row is context only, not tonight's option.

A still-forming battery is its own signal. Expect early-count sequencing wobbles from Crooks and McGreevy, and expect Milwaukee's runners to test the arm. The 8.2 IP paired workload is the smallest of McGreevy's active-roster catcher options.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Milwaukee brings a fleet of 2025 SB threats to Busch tonight:

-- Brice Turang: 24 SB / 8 CS / 75.0% success

-- Jackson Chourio: 21 SB / 7 CS / 75.0%

-- Sal Frelick: 19 SB / 6 CS / 76.0%

-- Christian Yelich: 16 SB / 6 CS / 72.7%

-- Joey Ortiz: 14 SB / 3 CS / 82.4%

-- Jake Bauers: 8 SB / 1 CS / 88.9% (elite conversion)

-- William Contreras: 6 SB / 4 CS / 60.0%

-- Garrett Mitchell: 3 SB / 0 CS / 100.0%

Read: With Crooks-McGreevy at only 8.2 IP shared workload, the running game should be on the game plan. Turang and Chourio at the top of the projected order set the tone.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

PlayerPOSGDPEFld%
Masyn WinnSS1296430.994
Jordan WalkerRF108240.981
Lars NootbaarLF107001.000
Alec Burleson1B502740.990
Alec BurlesonLF41001.000
Alec BurlesonRF34110.983
Lars NootbaarRF23001.000
Nathan ChurchCF18001.000
Jimmy CrooksC14001.000
Iván HerreraC14010.989
Lars NootbaarCF12010.967
Nathan ChurchRF7010.833
Nathan ChurchLF5001.000
Iván HerreraLF4001.000
Alec BurlesonP100--

Winn's 129 games at SS (.994 fielding, 3 E) anchors the infield tonight. Walker starts in RF (108 G, .981). Nootbaar in LF (107 G, 1.000 fielding) is a plus-defender assignment against a Brewers lineup that runs a lot to left. Burleson takes 1B (50 G, .990). Crooks catches (14 G, 1.000) tonight; Herrera moves to DH. Church starts in CF, where his 18 G at 1.000 fielding is a positive tick against Milwaukee's line-drive-prone hitters (Contreras .651 LD AVG, Frelick .682).

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Busch Stadium plays as a pitcher-leaning venue historically. Recent head-to-head has trended against St. Louis: 6-7 in 2025, 5-8 in 2024, 5-8 in 2023, though closer at 10-9 in 2022. The 2026 slide continues -- Milwaukee has taken the first three games of this five-game set. The venue read favors pitching; the recent-sample read favors Milwaukee.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Lars Nootbaar58311920.4%6411.0%
Alec Burleson5447914.5%397.2%
Masyn Winn53710219.0%346.3%
Iván Herrera4508418.7%439.6%
Jordan Walker39612631.8%297.3%
Nathan Church651827.7%34.6%
Jimmy Crooks461737.0%00.0%

Facing Harrison's 24.4% 2025 K%, the whiff risks stack up. Walker (31.8% 2025 K%), Church (27.7%), and Crooks (37.0%) headline the strikeout risk. Nootbaar's 11.0% 2025 BB% is the lineup's disciplined mark and the best chance to force Harrison into deeper counts.

Brewers

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Brice Turang65915022.8%6610.0%
William Contreras65912018.2%8412.7%
Christian Yelich64416725.9%649.9%
Sal Frelick5908013.6%478.0%
Jackson Chourio58912120.5%305.1%
Joey Ortiz5067414.6%275.3%
Andrew Vaughn4478017.9%316.9%
Jake Bauers2185927.1%3214.7%
Gary Sánchez1012726.7%44.0%
Garrett Mitchell782532.1%79.0%

Milwaukee's plate approach in 2025 splits by role. Contreras (12.7% BB%) and Bauers (14.7%) lead in walk rate; Chourio (5.1%) and Ortiz (5.3%) are the low-walk chasers -- attack the zone against them. On strikeouts, Mitchell (32.1% 2025 K%), Bauers (27.1%), Sánchez (26.7%), and Yelich (25.9%) are the whiff-prone group; McGreevy's low K% profile still finds outs against them via contact. Frelick (13.6% K%, 8.0% BB%) is the contact anchor -- he seldom gives away at-bats.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Alec Burleson39842.0%33.4%24.6%
Masyn Winn37639.6%34.0%26.3%
Lars Nootbaar37639.1%35.4%25.5%
Iván Herrera28552.6%21.8%25.6%
Jordan Walker23148.9%29.4%21.6%
Nathan Church3767.6%21.6%10.8%
Jimmy Crooks2737.0%44.4%18.5%

Church's 2025 67.6% GB rate is the lineup's most extreme; against Harrison's fly-ball leaning profile the ball should stay on the ground for him. Crooks' 44.4% FB rate is the outlier -- the only fly-ball leaner in a lineup otherwise packed with GB or balanced hitters. Herrera's 52.6% GB rate meets McGreevy's ground-ball identity later in the game.

Brewers

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Sal Frelick45847.8%28.8%23.4%
William Contreras45453.1%22.9%24.0%
Jackson Chourio42645.1%30.3%24.6%
Brice Turang42448.3%24.5%27.1%
Christian Yelich40062.3%14.0%23.8%
Joey Ortiz40046.3%31.5%22.3%
Andrew Vaughn33444.0%30.5%25.4%
Jake Bauers12538.4%34.4%27.2%
Gary Sánchez5945.8%37.3%16.9%
Garrett Mitchell4247.6%26.2%26.2%

Yelich's 62.3% 2025 GB rate is the Brewers' most extreme grounder profile, which fits well into McGreevy's GB identity but also into Yelich's own weak career GB AVG (.245). Contreras (53.1%) and Frelick (47.8%) round out the GB-leaning middle. Bauers (34.4% FB), Chourio (30.3%), and Ortiz (31.5%) are the FB threats against McGreevy's home HR history (6 HR allowed in 50.0 IP at Busch in 2025).

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

PitcherIPKK%BBBB%K/BB
Michael McGreevy95.25814.5%205.0%2.90
Kyle Harrison35.23824.4%149.0%2.71

Harrison's 2025 K/BB ratio is 2.71 (24.4% K%, 9.0% BB%) -- elite whiff volume with acceptable walks. McGreevy's 2025 K/BB ratio is 2.90 (14.5% K%, 5.0% BB%) -- a low-walk, low-whiff contact profile.

2026 to date: McGreevy is at 3.12 ERA, 60 K, 22 BB in 95.1 IP. 2025 baseline: 14.5% K%, 5.0% BB%. The season-to-date profile tracks the 2025 sample. Harrison in 2026: 2.82 ERA, 99 K, 20 BB in 79.2 IP -- a step forward on K rate from the 2025 baseline.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Iván Herrera vs Harrison. Herrera's 2025 vs-LHP baseline is .330/.455/.660 in 124 PA with 9 HR -- the lineup's most concentrated LHP threat. Harrison's 2025 vs-LHB sample (47 PA) allowed 3 HR against 10 K with 0 BB -- low-walk, HR-prone platoon slot. Approach: force strikes, then attack for damage.

McGreevy vs Yelich. McGreevy's 2025 vs-LHB line is .318/.368/.543 (.911 OPS) with 9 HR across 190 PA. Yelich's 2025 vs-RHP: .271/.356/.493 in 461 PA with 25 HR. He is on a 3-for-5 heater from Tuesday. This is the game's biggest platoon collision.

Walker vs Harrison. Walker's 2025 vs-LHP: .255/.318/.347 in 107 PA. Cleanup RHB against a LHP with a leaky vs-RHB OBP profile (.358 OBP allowed in 2025). If Walker works the count, the LHP-vs-RHB math tilts to him.

X-factor: Harrison's third pass through the order. 15 PA is thin -- but the 2025 third-pass line is .500/.533/.857. If the Cardinals reach a third pass through the order (innings 7+), that is the exploit window.

Watchlist: Brewers running game. Turang, Chourio, Frelick, Yelich, and Ortiz all have 14+ SB in 2025. Crooks and McGreevy paired only 8.2 IP together -- a fresh battery invites tests.

Watchlist: bullpen leverage. Romero at 88.5% strand in 26 IR chances vs Svanson at 50.0% in 26 IR chances. Whichever arm inherits runners tonight bends the middle innings.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Iván Herrera performed against Kyle Harrison in their career?

2. How has Michael McGreevy fared against Christian Yelich in their career?

3. How has Jordan Walker performed against Kyle Harrison in their career?

4. What are Kyle Harrison's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Iván Herrera's splits vs LHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?

700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025