NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 56-33 | - | W2 |
| Cubs | 50-40 | 6.5 | W1 |
| Cardinals | 47-41 | 8.5 | L2 |
| Pirates | 46-45 | 11.0 | W2 |
| Reds | 41-48 | 15.0 | W1 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 6 | MIL | Home | L 3-4 |
| Jul 5 | CHC | Away | L 4-6 |
| Jul 4 | CHC | Away | W 3-0 |
| Jul 3 | CHC | Away | W 17-1 |
| Jul 2 | ATL | Away | W 11-5 |
| Jul 1 | ATL | Away | L 1-5 |
| Jun 30 | ATL | Away | W 5-3 |
| Jun 28 | MIA | Home | W 2-1 |
| Jun 27 | MIA | Home | L 1-5 |
| Jun 26 | MIA | Home | L 0-4 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Cardinals starter -- TBD. No named starter listed for the nightcap. The Cardinals staff behind the projected order includes Dustin May, Andre Pallante, Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, and Kyle Leahy on the active roster; without a confirmed name, all pitch-plan analysis below defaults to the lineup pool rather than a specific pitcher matchup.
Brewers starter -- TBD. No named starter listed. The Brewers' rostered starters/multi-inning arms include Aaron Ashby, Brandon Sproat, Chad Patrick, Jacob Misiorowski, Kyle Harrison, and Shane Drohan (yesterday's Game 1 starter). Handedness matters: if the Brewers open with a righty, the Cardinals' 6-LHB projection is the primary edge; if a lefty, Chourio, Contreras, and Vaughn are the middle-of-the-order threats.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-07-06)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .316 | .887 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .225 | .726 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .343 | .888 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .314 | 1.018 |
| 5 | Nootbaar | LF | L | .115 | .558 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .227 | .647 |
| 7 | Crooks | C | L | .333 | 1.052 |
| 8 | Gorman | 3B | L | -- | -- |
| 9 | Church | CF | L | .275 | .762 |
Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).
Brewers (Projected from 2026-07-06)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | Vaughn | 1B | R | .267 | .768 |
| None | Perkins | CF | S | .154 | .598 |
| None | Turang | 2B | L | .338 | 1.044 |
| None | Yelich | DH | L | .281 | .771 |
| None | Pratt | SS | R | .067 | .234 |
| None | Hamilton | 3B | L | .255 | .700 |
| None | Mitchell | CF | L | .290 | .912 |
| None | Sánchez | C | R | .250 | .992 |
| None | Chourio | LF | R | .259 | .717 |
| None | Bauers | 1B | L | .300 | 1.061 |
| None | Ortiz | SS | R | .212 | .650 |
| None | Frelick | RF | L | .236 | .567 |
| None | Contreras | C | R | .290 | .831 |
Handedness: 6 RHB (Vaughn, Pratt, Sánchez, Chourio, Ortiz, Contreras), 6 LHB (Turang, Yelich, Hamilton, Mitchell, Bauers, Frelick), 1 SHB (Perkins).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury or roster-move data is available for today's report. The Brewers' expected pool was carried over from the 2026-07-06 projection and lists 13 position players without batting-order numbers -- the actual 9-man alignment is unknown until first pitch. Both starters are TBD, so no starter-side news was pulled for the nightcap.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
No data available for this section.
The Brewers starter is TBD, so no batter-versus-pitcher history was pulled. Once the Brewers name a starter, the career BvP tape for that arm becomes the first place to check.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history is available -- the query returned 0 rows against an unnamed starter.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
No data available for this section.
The Cardinals starter is TBD, so no career BvP tape was pulled for the Brewers' projected pool against tonight's arm. Chourio (.338 vs LHP in 2025) and Contreras (.361 OBP vs LHP in 2025) are the two bats that most influence the pitch plan regardless of the specific starter's identity.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Lars Nootbaar L | 403 | .249 | .340 | .394 | 10 | 47 | 72 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Iván Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Nathan Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| Jimmy Crooks L | 38 | .108 | .132 | .162 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
These are 2025 lines vs RHP. Alec Burleson is the class of the group: .296 AVG / .353 OBP / .478 SLG on 419 PA with 15 HR -- a legitimate middle-of-the-order profile against right-handed pitching. Lars Nootbaar's .340 OBP on 403 PA is the on-base backbone. Iván Herrera and Masyn Winn's slash lines are professional if unspectacular. Jordan Walker's .200 AVG in 289 PA vs RHP in 2025 is the exposure -- the RHB cleanup slot works only if the pitcher's arm-side stuff misses. Nathan Church (51 PA) and Jimmy Crooks (38 PA) are small 2025 samples and both under .120 vs RHP.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich L | 221 | .235 | .308 | .330 | 4 | 18 | 62 |
| Brice Turang L | 207 | .286 | .340 | .370 | 3 | 15 | 47 |
| William Contreras R | 194 | .247 | .361 | .383 | 5 | 28 | 35 |
| Sal Frelick L | 186 | .287 | .344 | .329 | 0 | 11 | 26 |
| Jackson Chourio R | 160 | .338 | .381 | .568 | 7 | 11 | 39 |
| Joey Ortiz R | 149 | .279 | .308 | .400 | 2 | 4 | 21 |
| Andrew Vaughn R | 142 | .301 | .383 | .472 | 4 | 16 | 18 |
| Blake Perkins B | 59 | .269 | .356 | .423 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| Gary Sánchez R | 42 | .211 | .262 | .316 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| Garrett Mitchell L | 24 | .200 | .304 | .200 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| David Hamilton L | 20 | .158 | .200 | .158 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Jake Bauers L | 18 | .188 | .278 | .250 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
These are 2025 lines vs LHP. Jackson Chourio (.338/.381/.568 with 7 HR in 160 PA vs LHP in 2025) is the profile-breaker: an RHB who does not need a fastball to feast on lefties. Andrew Vaughn (.301/.383/.472 on 142 PA) and William Contreras (.361 OBP / .383 SLG on 194 PA vs LHP) round out the right-handed threats. On the other side of the platoon, Brice Turang (.286 in 207 PA vs LHP) and Sal Frelick (.287 in 186 PA) are the two LHB who actually handle same-side pitching. The three small-sample LHB (Mitchell 24 PA, Hamilton 20 PA, Bauers 18 PA) are the platoon holes if the Cardinals go lefty.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
No data available for this section.
Both starters are TBD, so no pitcher platoon splits were pulled. Skip until a starter is named.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
No data available for this section.
Tonight's game is at Busch Stadium -- the Cardinals starter would be pitching at home, the Brewers starter on the road. Both starters are TBD, so no home/away splits are on file.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
No data available for this section.
Both starters are TBD, so no TTO splits were pulled. The first pass through the order (TTO1), second pass (TTO2), and third pass (TTO3) analysis unlocks only after a starter is named.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Ryan Fernandez | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League-average strand rate reference: ~68-72%. The Cardinals have one elite arm with runners on (JoJo Romero, 88.5% on 26 IR) and one clean-slate specialist (Michael McGreevy, 3/3). Kyle Leahy (62.1% on 29 IR) is the biggest workload but sits below league mean. The three sub-55% strand rates -- Matt Svanson 50.0%, Ryan Fernandez 50.0%, and Gordon Graceffo 54.5% -- are the leverage-avoidance list tonight. Yesterday's meltdown was Fernandez charged with 3 R on 2 H without recording an out; the pattern is fresh.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)
No data available for this section.
Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- MIL
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers | .188 | .765 | .070 |
| Jackson Chourio | .307 | .581 | .101 |
| William Contreras | .241 | .651 | .067 |
| Sal Frelick | .269 | .682 | .076 |
| David Hamilton | .226 | .444 | .049 |
| Garrett Mitchell | .200 | .636 | .182 |
| Joey Ortiz | .281 | .449 | .087 |
| Blake Perkins | .273 | .696 | .097 |
| Gary Sánchez | .222 | 1.000 | .000 |
| Brice Turang | .327 | .609 | .077 |
| Andrew Vaughn | .197 | .659 | .059 |
| Christian Yelich | .245 | .632 | .125 |
The Brewers pool converts line drives at an extreme rate -- Bauers .765, Frelick .682, Chourio .581, Contreras .651. That is the shared trait of a lineup built to slap the ball into the outfield alleys. Ground-ball AVG stays modest across the pool (mostly .200-.307), so the pitch plan is fastballs down and hard stuff at the top of the zone rather than pitching to a specific ground-ball outcome. Gary Sanchez's 1.000 line-drive AVG comes off a tiny sample and can be ignored.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
No data available for this section.
Tonight's projected Cardinals catcher is Jimmy Crooks (LHB, batting seventh). The Cardinals starter is TBD, so no pitcher-catcher IP history was queried. Crooks is the primary receiver on the projection card; Pedro Pagés and Iván Herrera (DH tonight) are the alternate options on the active roster.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Brice Turang -- 24 SB, 8 CS, 75.0% success in the career SB leaders sample. The Brewers' leadoff-caliber runner and the highest single-season steals threat on the visitors' pool.
David Hamilton -- 22 SB, 6 CS, 78.6% success. The second speed threat; his two-run seventh-inning double yesterday shows the total offensive package.
Jackson Chourio -- 21 SB, 7 CS, 75.0% success. A power-plus-speed profile behind a .338 AVG vs LHP.
Sal Frelick -- 19 SB, 6 CS, 76.0% success. Reliable green-light runner on the visitors' bench.
Christian Yelich -- 16 SB, 6 CS, 72.7% success. A veteran who still runs.
Joey Ortiz -- 14 SB, 3 CS, 82.4% success -- the highest success rate on the visitors' regular players.
Jake Bauers -- 8 SB, 1 CS, 88.9% success -- small volume but the top efficiency mark.
Blake Perkins -- 7 SB, 2 CS, 77.8% success.
William Contreras -- 6 SB, 4 CS, 60.0% success. The lowest success rate in the group; teams have him on notice.
Garrett Mitchell -- 3 SB, 0 CS, 100.0% success on tiny volume.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 107 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Lars Nootbaar | RF | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Jimmy Crooks | C | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Lars Nootbaar | CF | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.967 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Tonight's projected defensive alignment: Winn at SS, Wetherholt at 2B, Burleson at 1B, Gorman at 3B, Nootbaar in LF, Church in CF, Walker in RF, Crooks behind the plate. Masyn Winn anchors the infield with a .994 fielding percentage across 129 SS games and 64 double plays turned. Lars Nootbaar's 107 games in LF at 1.000 is clean corner defense. Jordan Walker's 4 errors in 108 RF games (.981) is the one exposure -- deep-corner reads. Nathan Church in center is a small 18-game sample at 1.000 fielding but very limited volume compared with the corners.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Recent head-to-head vs Milwaukee: 6-7 in 2025, 5-8 in 2024, 5-8 in 2023, 10-9 in 2022 -- the Brewers have owned the season series three of the last four years. Busch Stadium plays as a neutral-to-pitcher-leaning venue historically; the available head-to-head data does not carry a numeric park factor for this matchup, so treat the venue context as neutral until a specific starter's home/road profile provides more.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar | 583 | 119 | 20.4% | 64 | 11.0% |
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 46 | 17 | 37.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
These are 2025 K%/BB% rates. Lars Nootbaar's 11.0% 2025 BB% is the on-base engine at the top of the order. Alec Burleson (14.5% K% in 2025) is the contact anchor. Jordan Walker's 31.8% 2025 K% is the swing-and-miss risk in the cleanup spot -- a red-flag rate against any starter with average or better stuff. Jimmy Crooks's 37.0% 2025 K% and 0.0% 2025 BB% (on 46 PA) is a small-sample warning worth noting.
Brewers
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang | 659 | 150 | 22.8% | 66 | 10.0% |
| William Contreras | 659 | 120 | 18.2% | 84 | 12.7% |
| Christian Yelich | 644 | 167 | 25.9% | 64 | 9.9% |
| Sal Frelick | 590 | 80 | 13.6% | 47 | 8.0% |
| Jackson Chourio | 589 | 121 | 20.5% | 30 | 5.1% |
| Joey Ortiz | 506 | 74 | 14.6% | 27 | 5.3% |
| Andrew Vaughn | 447 | 80 | 17.9% | 31 | 6.9% |
| Jake Bauers | 218 | 59 | 27.1% | 32 | 14.7% |
| David Hamilton | 194 | 47 | 24.2% | 13 | 6.7% |
| Blake Perkins | 171 | 47 | 27.5% | 15 | 8.8% |
| Gary Sánchez | 101 | 27 | 26.7% | 4 | 4.0% |
| Garrett Mitchell | 78 | 25 | 32.1% | 7 | 9.0% |
These are 2025 K%/BB% rates. William Contreras's 12.7% 2025 BB% and Jake Bauers's 14.7% 2025 BB% are the two grinding at-bats near the top of the visitors' pool. On the strikeout side, Garrett Mitchell (32.1% 2025 K%), Blake Perkins (27.5%), Jake Bauers (27.1%), and Gary Sanchez (26.7%) all sit above the 25% high-K threshold -- those are the leverage-strikeout targets. Chourio and Ortiz both carry sub-6% 2025 BB% -- aggressive early-count swingers who reward a pitcher who fills up the zone.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Lars Nootbaar | 376 | 39.1% | 35.4% | 25.5% |
| Iván Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 27 | 37.0% | 44.4% | 18.5% |
These are 2025 batted-ball rates. Nathan Church's 67.6% 2025 GB% (on 37 BIP) is by far the most extreme ground-ball profile on the projected order. Iván Herrera's 52.6% 2025 GB% and Jordan Walker's 48.9% 2025 GB% skew ground-ball as well. Nootbaar and Winn have the balanced pull-side line-drive profiles that trend toward extra-base hits.
Brewers
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sal Frelick | 458 | 47.8% | 28.8% | 23.4% |
| William Contreras | 454 | 53.1% | 22.9% | 24.0% |
| Jackson Chourio | 426 | 45.1% | 30.3% | 24.6% |
| Brice Turang | 424 | 48.3% | 24.5% | 27.1% |
| Christian Yelich | 400 | 62.3% | 14.0% | 23.8% |
| Joey Ortiz | 400 | 46.3% | 31.5% | 22.3% |
| Andrew Vaughn | 334 | 44.0% | 30.5% | 25.4% |
| Jake Bauers | 125 | 38.4% | 34.4% | 27.2% |
| David Hamilton | 121 | 43.8% | 33.9% | 22.3% |
| Blake Perkins | 109 | 50.5% | 28.4% | 21.1% |
| Gary Sánchez | 59 | 45.8% | 37.3% | 16.9% |
| Garrett Mitchell | 42 | 47.6% | 26.2% | 26.2% |
These are 2025 batted-ball rates. Christian Yelich's 62.3% 2025 GB% is extreme -- his profile is now almost exclusively a ground-ball hitter (only 14.0% 2025 FB%). William Contreras's 53.1% 2025 GB% is also ground-heavy. Brice Turang's 27.1% 2025 LD% and Jake Bauers's 27.2% 2025 LD% are the two line-drive rates that most reliably turn into base hits, which matches the extreme line-drive AVGs on the career hitter-batted-ball table above. Ground-heavy contact profiles play into a Cardinals infield anchored by Winn (0.994 fielding at SS).
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
No data available for this section.
Both starters are TBD, so no pitcher K%/BB% rates were pulled. Reliever K%/BB% is not in the 2N table on file.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Jackson Chourio vs LHP. .338/.381/.568 with 7 HR in 160 PA vs LHP in 2025 (Section 2C). The single biggest at-bat swing on the visitors' side of the platoon board. Any Cardinals lefty pitching to him around the middle of the zone is playing with fire.
Alec Burleson vs RHP. .296/.353/.478 with 15 HR in 419 PA vs RHP in 2025 (Section 2C). The Cardinals' most reliable middle-of-the-order bat against a right-handed profile; his 14.5% 2025 K% is the second-lowest on the projected order (Section 2L).
Brice Turang vs LHP. .286/.340/.370 in 207 PA vs LHP in 2025 (Section 2C) plus a 24-SB baserunning line (Section 2I, 75.0% success). A rare left-handed bat that handles same-side arms and converts every walk into a scoring threat.
X-factor -- the Cardinals bullpen fork. Romero (88.5% IR strand) vs Svanson (50.0%), Fernandez (50.0%), Graceffo (54.5%) -- which arm gets the fifth or sixth with runners on decides the middle innings (Section 2F). Yesterday's seventh (Fernandez 3 R without an out) is fresh evidence.
Watchlist -- Brewers speed. Turang 24, Hamilton 22, Chourio 21, Frelick 19, Yelich 16 SB in the 2025 SB sample (Section 2I). Crooks (LHB catcher) draws the projected start; the Brewers can turn a first-inning walk into a run before an out is recorded.
Watchlist -- lineup uncertainty. Both lineups are projected from 2026-07-06 and both starters are TBD. The Brewers list carries 13 players in a projection pool with no batting-order numbers, so every matchup call above is directional until the actual 9-man alignment posts.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Alec Burleson performed against Milwaukee's projected right-handed starters in their career?
2. How has Jackson Chourio fared against St. Louis's left-handed relievers in their career?
3. How has Brice Turang performed against JoJo Romero in their career?
4. What are the projected Cardinals starter's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Jackson Chourio's splits vs LHP in 2025?
6. How often does Matt Svanson strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025