NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 52-31 | - | W2 |
| Cubs | 48-38 | 5.5 | W4 |
| Cardinals | 44-38 | 7.5 | W2 |
| Pirates | 43-43 | 10.5 | L1 |
| Reds | 39-45 | 13.5 | L3 |
NL EAST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 49-34 | - | L3 |
| Phillies | 48-38 | 2.5 | W1 |
| Marlins | 46-40 | 4.5 | W2 |
| Nationals | 44-43 | 7.0 | W1 |
| Mets | 36-50 | 14.5 | W1 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30 | ATL | Away | W 5-3 |
| Jun 28 | MIA | Home | W 2-1 |
| Jun 27 | MIA | Home | L 1-5 |
| Jun 26 | MIA | Home | L 0-4 |
| Jun 24 | ARI | Home | L 4-9 |
| Jun 23 | ARI | Home | L 3-4 |
| Jun 22 | ARI | Home | W 3-2 |
| Jun 21 | KC | Away | W 12-10 |
| Jun 19 | KC | Away | L 5-6 |
| Jun 18 | KC | Away | L 6-14 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Michael McGreevy (R) -- STL
3-6, 3.12 ERA, 89.1 IP, 1.14 WHIP across 16 starts. 2026 to date: 57 K, 21 BB, 12 HR allowed. Ground-ball tilted profile (52.6% GB%, 16.1% K%, 5.9% BB%) that leans on contact management and low walk rates. His 2025 platoon numbers flag the vulnerability: .911 OPS to LHB in 190 PA vs .580 OPS to RHB in 210 PA.
Reynaldo Lopez (R) -- ATL
3-1, 3.47 ERA, 46.2 IP, 1.37 WHIP across 6 starts. 2026 to date: 40 K, 21 BB, 6 HR allowed. Lopez has missed most of the season -- his 2025 sample is only 5.0 IP / 25 BF, so all downstream 2025 splits (platoon, TTO, batted ball) are extreme small samples worth flagging rather than trusting.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-06-30)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .304 | .860 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .200 | .695 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .337 | .898 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .298 | .949 |
| 5 | Nootbaar | LF | L | .091 | .523 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .209 | .592 |
| 7 | Crooks | C | L | .333 | 1.052 |
| 8 | Gorman | 3B | L | -- | -- |
| 9 | Church | CF | L | .278 | .707 |
Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).
Braves (Projected from 2026-06-30)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | Riley | 3B | R | .224 | .704 |
| None | Smith | DH | L | .304 | .849 |
| None | Baldwin | C | L | .302 | .793 |
| None | White | RF | R | .250 | .706 |
| None | Kim | SS | R | .200 | .568 |
| None | Bart | C | R | .158 | .348 |
| None | Mateo | SS | R | .240 | .536 |
| None | Olson | 1B | L | .211 | .710 |
| None | Dubón | SS | R | .338 | .972 |
| None | Harris | CF | L | .275 | .720 |
| None | Yastrzemski | LF | L | .260 | .679 |
| None | Albies | 2B | S | .354 | .919 |
| None | Tellez | 1B | L | .200 | .533 |
Handedness: 6 RHB (Riley, White, Kim, Bart, Mateo, Dubón), 6 LHB (Smith, Baldwin, Olson, Harris, Yastrzemski, Tellez), 1 SHB (Albies).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury or roster-move data is available for today's report.
Note: Braves lineup is a prior-day projection (2026-06-30) rendered as an unordered pool of 13 available position players -- the actual batting order will be confirmed at first pitch.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 3 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Masyn Winn | 3 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .333 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Iván Herrera | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Small sample: Alec Burleson (3 PA), Masyn Winn (3 PA), Iván Herrera (1 PA).
Effectively no career BvP history against Lopez. Three players have a combined 7 PA, all hitless. Winn's walk in 3 PA is the lone positive touch. The Cardinals are facing Lopez blind -- profile bets, not history bets, drive tonight.
Bench note: No significant bench BvP history vs Lopez in the career sample. Wetherholt, Walker, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, and Church -- no rows.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Bart | 4 | 4 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Dominic Smith | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .667 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Joey Bart (4 PA), Dominic Smith (3 PA), Mike Yastrzemski (2 PA).
Bart's 4 PA / 3 K vs McGreevy is a directional signal that McGreevy has the fastball-command angle to work him -- Bart's 2025 K% is 28.0%, so the pattern tracks. Smith is 1-for-3 with a hit worth double the AVG, but 3 PA is not a sample. Yastrzemski's 2 PA / 0-for-2 is noise. All three players carry season lines that matter more than the BvP rows.
Bench note: No career BvP rows vs McGreevy for the remaining ATL starters (Riley, Baldwin, White, Kim, Mateo, Olson, Dubon, Harris, Albies, Tellez). Profile-driven matchup for most of the lineup.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Lars Nootbaar L | 403 | .249 | .340 | .394 | 10 | 47 | 72 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Iván Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Nathan Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| Jimmy Crooks L | 38 | .108 | .132 | .162 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
Lopez is a RHP, so the 2025 vs RHP splits are the relevant view. Burleson's .296 / .353 / .478 line is the strongest platoon match on the roster -- he is the profile lean tonight. Nootbaar (.340 OBP) is patient enough to work counts against a starter with 8.0% BB%. Walker's .200 / .263 / .291 vs RHP is the weak-side lever the Braves will attack. Church (51 PA, .114) and Crooks (38 PA, .108) are the two smallest samples in the group and their 2025 vs RHP numbers are ugly -- keep expectations modest at the bottom of the order.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson L | 509 | .268 | .379 | .494 | 23 | 75 | 117 |
| Ozzie Albies B | 481 | .225 | .310 | .345 | 12 | 49 | 76 |
| Michael Harris L | 458 | .252 | .270 | .420 | 17 | 11 | 89 |
| Mike Yastrzemski L | 454 | .256 | .362 | .446 | 15 | 65 | 86 |
| Drake Baldwin L | 351 | .267 | .336 | .472 | 15 | 31 | 53 |
| Austin Riley R | 346 | .259 | .312 | .431 | 12 | 22 | 106 |
| Rowdy Tellez L | 288 | .242 | .281 | .472 | 17 | 14 | 73 |
| Mauricio Dubón R | 283 | .221 | .267 | .335 | 6 | 17 | 31 |
| Joey Bart R | 246 | .230 | .333 | .296 | 1 | 26 | 67 |
| Dominic Smith L | 198 | .296 | .343 | .436 | 5 | 14 | 38 |
| Eli White R | 175 | .229 | .259 | .386 | 5 | 5 | 46 |
| Ha-Seong Kim R | 131 | .209 | .290 | .330 | 4 | 12 | 30 |
| Jorge Mateo R | 44 | .150 | .227 | .250 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
McGreevy is a RHP -- these are the relevant 2025 vs RHP splits for the Braves lineup. The heavy hitters are all left-handed: Olson .494 SLG, Yastrzemski .446 SLG, Baldwin .472 SLG, Tellez .472 SLG. Olson's .379 OBP is the discipline standout. Harris carries power (.420 SLG, 17 HR) with a .270 OBP -- an aggressive profile. Right-handed Riley (.431 SLG) is the exception in the top-half. Six left-handed hitters project into the lineup -- this is the collision point with McGreevy's 2025 .911 OPS to LHB.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reynaldo López | vs LHB | 14 | .417 | .500 | .417 | .917 | 0 | 0 |
| Reynaldo López | vs RHB | 11 | .364 | .364 | .727 | 1.091 | 1 | 1 |
| Michael McGreevy | vs LHB | 190 | .318 | .368 | .543 | .911 | 9 | 27 |
| Michael McGreevy | vs RHB | 210 | .225 | .255 | .325 | .580 | 3 | 31 |
The most useful entries here are McGreevy's 2025 splits (190/210 PA -- meaningful samples). The gap is stark: .911 OPS to LHB, .580 OPS to RHB -- a full lineup-flipping platoon issue. Atlanta projects six LHB plus switch-hitter Albies, which is close to the maximum exposure McGreevy can be handed. Lopez's 2025 splits (14/11 PA) are far too small to inform anything -- flagged for transparency, not for game-planning.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reynaldo López | Away | 25 | 5.0 | 5.40 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Michael McGreevy | Away | 188 | 45.2 | 3.55 | 24 | 9 | 6 |
| Michael McGreevy | Home | 212 | 50.0 | 5.22 | 34 | 11 | 6 |
Tonight's game is at Truist Park -- McGreevy pitching away. That's his better context: 3.55 ERA on the road (188 BF) vs 5.22 at home (212 BF) -- a substantial road/home gap, road clearly his stronger environment. Lopez has no meaningful home split in the 2025 sample; the away line (25 BF, 5.40 ERA) is too small to lean on.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reynaldo López | TTO1 | 9 | .556 | .889 | 1.445 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Reynaldo López | TTO2 | 9 | .375 | .500 | .944 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Reynaldo López | TTO3 | 7 | .167 | .167 | .453 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO1 | 154 | .282 | .465 | .792 | 5 | 22 | 8 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO2 | 152 | .271 | .417 | .715 | 4 | 14 | 6 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO3 | 94 | .241 | .379 | .677 | 3 | 22 | 6 |
McGreevy's 2025 TTO profile inverts the usual pattern -- his OPS improves each time through (first pass .792, second pass .715, third pass .677). He is at his most vulnerable the first pass through the order, then tightens. That is a mild insurance policy against a rocky opening. Lopez's TTO buckets are tiny (9/9/7 PA) -- the .889 SLG in TTO1 and 1.445 OPS are eye-catching but unreliable at 9 PA. The directional pattern -- if it means anything at all -- suggests Lopez has to survive the first pass through the order and then coasts.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Ryan Fernandez | 8 | 4 | 50.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero's 88.5% is elite; McGreevy's 100.0% is on a 3-runner sample, so hold the trophy. The middle-innings danger zone: Svanson (50.0%), Graceffo (54.5%), and Fernandez (50.0%) all sit well below league average. If McGreevy exits with runners on, which arm follows him decides whether inherited traffic scores.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reynaldo López | 21 | 42.9% | 23.8% | 33.3% |
| Michael McGreevy | 307 | 49.2% | 25.7% | 24.4% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- ATL
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ozzie Albies | .236 | .598 | .076 |
| Drake Baldwin | .201 | .641 | .118 |
| Joey Bart | .280 | .745 | .098 |
| Mauricio Dubón | .222 | .597 | .099 |
| Michael Harris | .230 | .593 | .101 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | .265 | .647 | .000 |
| Jorge Mateo | .261 | .500 | .176 |
| Matt Olson | .261 | .682 | .154 |
| Austin Riley | .310 | .684 | .094 |
| Dominic Smith | .343 | .571 | .111 |
| Rowdy Tellez | .235 | .558 | .092 |
| Eli White | .286 | .455 | .089 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | .202 | .589 | .092 |
McGreevy is a ground-ball pitcher (49.2% GB% career, 52.6% GB% in 2026). That plays into most of the ATL lineup's ground-ball weakness -- Baldwin .201 GB AVG, Yastrzemski .202, Harris .230, Albies .236, Tellez .235. The problem: three ATL bats hit for meaningful AVG on grounders -- Smith .343, Riley .310, White .286. And every ATL hitter here posts a scary line-drive AVG (.455-.745). The playbook: keep the ball on the ground to Baldwin/Yastrzemski/Harris/Olson; avoid line-drive contact against anyone.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 14 | 80.2 | 4.24 | .266 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 2 | 8.2 | 9.35 | .385 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 1 | 5.2 | 0.00 | .056 | -- | -- |
Yohel Pozo is not on the Cardinals' current active roster -- that 5.2 IP / 0.00 ERA row is a prior-context sample, not a live pairing option tonight. Tonight's catcher per the lineup is Jimmy Crooks. Crooks has caught McGreevy for 8.2 IP across 2 games with a 9.35 ERA and .385 opponent AVG -- a tiny, ugly sample. Pages carries the bulk of McGreevy's caught innings (80.2 IP, 4.24 ERA) but sits tonight. A relatively fresh battery matters here: signal sequencing and pop-time calibration are still building.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
-- Michael Harris. 20 SB / 6 CS, 76.9% success in the 2025 sample. Primary running threat in the ATL lineup.
-- Jorge Mateo. 15 SB / 2 CS, 88.2% success. High-efficiency runner off the bench or in the lineup.
-- Ozzie Albies. 14 SB / 3 CS, 82.4% success. Volume threat in the middle of the order.
-- Eli White. 10 SB / 1 CS, 90.9% success. Highest raw success rate of the top-volume runners.
-- Mike Yastrzemski. 7 SB / 2 CS, 77.8%.
-- Ha-Seong Kim. 6 SB / 2 CS, 75.0%.
-- Mauricio Dubon. 3 SB / 0 CS, 100.0% (small sample).
-- Dominic Smith. 2 SB / 0 CS, 100.0% (small sample).
-- Austin Riley. 2 SB / 1 CS, 66.7%.
-- Rowdy Tellez. 1 SB / 0 CS, 100.0% (small sample).
-- Matt Olson. 1 SB / 0 CS, 100.0% (small sample).
-- Joey Bart. 1 SB / 1 CS, 50.0%.
Combined threat: three double-digit stolen-base runners (Harris, Mateo, Albies) and one more just below (White) -- an above-average speed team. Fresh Crooks-McGreevy battery makes running an obvious first-look angle.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 107 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Lars Nootbaar | RF | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Jimmy Crooks | C | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Lars Nootbaar | CF | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.967 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Winn's .994 fielding percentage at SS is elite -- a critical anchor behind McGreevy's ground-ball approach. Burleson at 1B (27 DP, .990) closes out the infield well; Nootbaar in LF (.1000) is pristine. The question mark is CF: Church starts there tonight and carries only 18 games and a perfect .1000 fielding line at the position -- clean but a small sample of major-league reps. Walker's 4 errors and .981 in RF is the one exposure spot in the outfield.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
The Cardinals have split recent seasons vs Atlanta -- 2025: 2-4; 2024: 4-2; 2023: 2-4; 2022: 3-4. STL leads the current series 1-0 after last night's 5-3 road win. Truist Park plays as a hitter-leaning venue historically; the specific park factor is not in the available 2K data, so treat this as directional context rather than a precise multiplier.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar | 583 | 119 | 20.4% | 64 | 11.0% |
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 46 | 17 | 37.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Walker (31.8%) and Crooks (37.0%) are the two 2025 K%-flagged bats -- both above the 25% high threshold. Nootbaar (11.0% BB%) is the walk-rate standout in the top-half of the order.
Braves
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | 724 | 176 | 24.3% | 91 | 12.6% |
| Ozzie Albies | 667 | 94 | 14.1% | 55 | 8.2% |
| Michael Harris | 641 | 128 | 20.0% | 16 | 2.5% |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 558 | 108 | 19.4% | 72 | 12.9% |
| Austin Riley | 447 | 128 | 28.6% | 27 | 6.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 446 | 68 | 15.2% | 38 | 8.5% |
| Mauricio Dubón | 398 | 42 | 10.6% | 24 | 6.0% |
| Joey Bart | 332 | 93 | 28.0% | 40 | 12.0% |
| Rowdy Tellez | 312 | 83 | 26.6% | 17 | 5.4% |
| Eli White | 271 | 70 | 25.8% | 11 | 4.1% |
| Dominic Smith | 225 | 42 | 18.7% | 15 | 6.7% |
| Ha-Seong Kim | 191 | 39 | 20.4% | 16 | 8.4% |
| Jorge Mateo | 83 | 30 | 36.1% | 4 | 4.8% |
Five ATL bats are above the 25% high-K% threshold: Riley 28.6%, Bart 28.0%, Tellez 26.6%, White 25.8%, Mateo 36.1%. Harris's 2.5% BB rate is extreme -- an aggressive out-hunter McGreevy can attack early. On the other side, Olson (12.6% BB%), Yastrzemski (12.9% BB%), and Bart (12.0% BB%) are the most patient bats -- McGreevy's 5.9% BB% is his defense against them.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Lars Nootbaar | 376 | 39.1% | 35.4% | 25.5% |
| Iván Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 27 | 37.0% | 44.4% | 18.5% |
Nootbaar (35.4% FB%) and Crooks (44.4% FB%) carry the most air-focused STL profiles -- but Crooks's 27 BIP is a very small sample. Church's 67.6% GB% is extreme -- he plays into Lopez's 42.9% GB career profile.
Braves
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ozzie Albies | 493 | 38.7% | 37.5% | 23.7% |
| Michael Harris | 460 | 52.8% | 23.7% | 23.5% |
| Matt Olson | 420 | 42.9% | 31.0% | 26.2% |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 345 | 33.0% | 40.9% | 26.1% |
| Drake Baldwin | 318 | 51.6% | 23.9% | 24.5% |
| Mauricio Dubón | 313 | 43.1% | 35.5% | 21.4% |
| Austin Riley | 272 | 36.8% | 35.3% | 27.9% |
| Rowdy Tellez | 189 | 42.9% | 34.4% | 22.8% |
| Joey Bart | 188 | 53.2% | 21.8% | 25.0% |
| Eli White | 173 | 48.6% | 26.0% | 25.4% |
| Dominic Smith | 157 | 44.6% | 28.7% | 26.8% |
| Ha-Seong Kim | 126 | 38.9% | 34.1% | 27.0% |
| Jorge Mateo | 48 | 47.9% | 35.4% | 16.7% |
Yastrzemski's 40.9% FB% is the standout -- and against McGreevy's 25.7% career FB%, he is the fly-ball archetype most likely to punish an elevated mistake. Bart (53.2% GB%), Baldwin (51.6% GB%), and Harris (52.8% GB%) all match McGreevy's 2025 GB% profile (52.6%) -- expect grounder-heavy at-bats. Riley's 27.9% LD% is the top line-drive rate in the sample; his batted-ball quality is where the danger sits.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McGreevy | 95.2 | 58 | 14.5% | 20 | 5.0% | 2.90 |
| Reynaldo López | 5.0 | 1 | 4.0% | 2 | 8.0% | 0.50 |
2026 to date: McGreevy 3-6, 3.12 ERA, 16.1% K%, 5.9% BB%. 2025 baseline: 2025 K/BB ratio 2.90, 5.0% BB%, 14.5% K% -- both seasons paint the same picture: a low-strikeout, low-walk contact manager who leans on the defense and ground-ball rate. Lopez's 2025 sample (5.0 IP, 4.0% K%, 8.0% BB%, 0.50 K/BB) is too small to use as a baseline; his 2026 to date season line (3-1, 3.47 ERA) is a more useful anchor.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Matt Olson vs McGreevy. Olson's 2025 vs RHP line: .268 / .379 / .494 in 509 PA, with a 12.6% BB rate. McGreevy's 2025 vs LHB: .318 AVG / .543 SLG / .911 OPS in 190 PA (9 HR allowed). No career BvP sample between the two, so this is a profile bet -- and the profile points to Olson. Olson reaches base 2+ times.
Cardinals lefties vs Lopez. Six left-handed bats in the STL lineup. Lopez's 2025 sample vs LHB is 14 PA, .417 AVG, no HR, no strikeouts. Burleson (.296 vs RHP) and Nootbaar (.340 OBP) are the two most likely to punish mistake pitches; Wetherholt's 2026 .304 RISP AVG makes him the tone-setter at the top of the order.
Austin Riley vs McGreevy TTO1. Riley's 2025 K% is 28.6% (128 K in 447 PA vs RHP) and McGreevy's 2025 TTO1 sample carries most of his strikeouts (22 K in 154 PA). Riley strikes out 2+ times.
X-factor -- the fresh Crooks-McGreevy battery. The 8.2 IP together carries a 9.35 ERA and .385 opponent AVG -- signal calibration between pitcher and catcher is still building. In a road game against a lineup with three double-digit stolen-base runners (Harris, Mateo, Albies), the running game may be the first place ATL tests the pairing.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Alec Burleson performed against Reynaldo Lopez in their career?
2. How has Michael McGreevy fared against Matt Olson in their career?
3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Austin Riley in their career?
4. What are Michael McGreevy's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Matt Olson's splits vs RHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Truist Park in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025