NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 51-31 | - | W1 |
| Cubs | 47-38 | 5.5 | W3 |
| Cardinals | 43-38 | 7.5 | W1 |
| Pirates | 43-42 | 9.5 | W2 |
| Reds | 39-44 | 12.5 | L2 |
NL EAST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 49-33 | - | L2 |
| Phillies | 47-38 | 3.5 | L1 |
| Marlins | 45-40 | 5.5 | W1 |
| Nationals | 43-43 | 8.0 | L1 |
| Mets | 35-50 | 15.5 | L2 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28 | MIA | Home | W 2-1 |
| Jun 27 | MIA | Home | L 1-5 |
| Jun 26 | MIA | Home | L 0-4 |
| Jun 24 | ARI | Home | L 4-9 |
| Jun 23 | ARI | Home | L 3-4 |
| Jun 22 | ARI | Home | W 3-2 |
| Jun 21 | KC | Away | W 12-10 |
| Jun 19 | KC | Away | L 5-6 |
| Jun 18 | KC | Away | L 6-14 |
| Jun 17 | SD | Home | L 1-6 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Matthew Liberatore (L, STL): 2026 to date -- 3-5, 5.56 ERA, 77.2 IP, 70 K, 29 BB, 17 HR, 1.58 WHIP across 16 GS. 2025 baseline: 151.2 IP, 18.8% K%, 6.2% BB%, 3.05 K/BB. 2025 vs LHB OPS .758, vs RHB OPS .730 -- the platoon table runs the wrong direction for a left-hander. 2025 home/away split: 3.69 ERA at home (75.2 IP) vs 4.03 on the road (76.0 IP) -- pitching away tonight at Truist Park. The 17 HR in 77.2 IP and 1.58 WHIP are the headline trouble signs in his 2026 line.
Martín Pérez (L, ATL): 2026 to date -- 6-4, 3.00 ERA, 72.0 IP, 60 K, 27 BB, 7 HR, 1.13 WHIP across 12 GS. 2025 baseline: 56.0 IP, 19.3% K%, 9.6% BB%, 2.00 K/BB. 2025 vs LHB line: .145 / .175 / .255 / .430 OPS in 57 PA -- elite suppression with 14 K and only 2 BB. 2025 vs RHB: .218 / .316 / .381 / .697 OPS in 171 PA. 2025 home ERA 2.35 (30.2 IP) vs 4.62 away -- pitching at home tonight (stronger context).
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-06-28)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .304 | .860 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .200 | .695 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .337 | .898 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .298 | .949 |
| 5 | Nootbaar | LF | L | .095 | .545 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .209 | .592 |
| 7 | Crooks | C | L | .333 | 1.052 |
| 8 | Gorman | 3B | L | -- | -- |
| 9 | Church | CF | L | .257 | .586 |
Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).
Braves (From active roster)
13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Riley | 3B | R |
| Smith | DH | L |
| Baldwin | C | L |
| White | RF | R |
| Kim | SS | R |
| Bart | C | R |
| Mateo | SS | R |
| Olson | 1B | L |
| Dubón | SS | R |
| Harris | CF | L |
| Yastrzemski | LF | L |
| Albies | 2B | S |
| Tellez | 1B | L |
Handedness: 6 RHB (Riley, White, Kim, Bart, Mateo, Dubón), 6 LHB (Smith, Baldwin, Olson, Harris, Yastrzemski, Tellez), 1 SHB (Albies).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury or roster-move data is available for today.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | 6 | 5 | 2 | .400 | .500 | .400 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alec Burleson | 6 | 5 | 1 | .200 | .333 | .200 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Walker | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Small sample: Masyn Winn (6 PA), Alec Burleson (6 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA), Lars Nootbaar (2 PA).
Four Cardinals carry any career row against Pérez, and every sample is tiny. Winn is 2-for-5 with a walk -- the best line, but six total PA is cosmetic. Burleson is 1-for-5 with a walk, Nootbaar 1-for-2, Walker 0-for-2 with no strikeout. None of the four reach the 10-PA threshold. With no leverage on history, the matchup leans on Pérez's 2025 platoon profile: brutal vs LHB (.145 / .175), workable vs RHB (.218 / .316).
Bench note: Herrera, Crooks, Gorman, Church, Wetherholt -- no career rows vs Pérez. No bench BvP history either (Pagés, Fermín, Velázquez, Torres, Jordan -- no rows in the career BvP sample).
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | 6 | 6 | 1 | .167 | .167 | .167 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Joey Bart | 6 | 6 | 1 | .167 | .167 | .667 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Michael Harris | 5 | 5 | 1 | .200 | .200 | .400 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 4 | 4 | 2 | .500 | .500 | 1.250 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Riley | 6 | 4 | 1 | .250 | .500 | .250 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Ozzie Albies | 5 | 4 | 0 | .000 | .200 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Drake Baldwin | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Small sample: Matt Olson (6 PA), Joey Bart (6 PA), Michael Harris (5 PA), Rowdy Tellez (4 PA), Austin Riley (6 PA), Ozzie Albies (5 PA), Drake Baldwin (2 PA), Ha-Seong Kim (1 PA).
Eight Braves carry career rows vs Liberatore, but every sample is tiny. The headline line is Tellez: 2-for-4 with a HR (1.250 SLG) -- 4 PA is cosmetic but the swing has worked. Bart is 1-for-6 with a HR, 3 K. Baldwin is 2-for-2 with no strikeout. Olson 1-for-6 with 2 K is the loudest swing-and-miss line. Riley has drawn 2 BB in 6 PA. None of the eight clears the 10-PA threshold, so no entry triggers a danger callout under the report's 0.400 / 10 PA gate. The matchup leans on Liberatore's 2025 vs LHB profile (.274 / .348 / .410 / .758 OPS) and vs RHB (.265 / .304 / .426 / .730 OPS).
Bench note: Smith, Mateo, Dubón, Yastrzemski, White -- no career rows vs Liberatore. No additional bench BvP history.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar L | 180 | .201 | .291 | .289 | 3 | 17 | 47 |
| Masyn Winn R | 163 | .255 | .313 | .349 | 2 | 11 | 31 |
| Alec Burleson L | 127 | .271 | .310 | .398 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| Iván Herrera R | 124 | .330 | .455 | .660 | 9 | 19 | 18 |
| Jordan Walker R | 107 | .255 | .318 | .347 | 2 | 8 | 32 |
| Nathan Church L | 14 | .417 | .417 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Jimmy Crooks L | 8 | .250 | .250 | .625 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Three right-handed bats (Herrera, Walker, Winn) and six left-handed bats (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church) all face the left-handed Pérez. Herrera R is the loudest 2025 vs LHP line in any uniform tonight -- .330 / .455 / .660 in 124 PA with 9 HR. Walker R (.255 / .318 / .347) and Winn R (.255 / .313 / .349) are pedestrian but workable. On the left side, Burleson L (.271 / .310 / .398 in 127 PA) is the only meaningful sample with a respectable line. Nootbaar L is at .201 in 180 PA -- the structural weak point in a LHB-heavy lineup against a LHP. Church L (.417 in 14 PA) and Crooks L (.250 in 8 PA) are tiny samples; Wetherholt and Gorman have no 2025 vs LHP sample on file.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson L | 216 | .281 | .333 | .459 | 6 | 16 | 60 |
| Ozzie Albies B | 186 | .277 | .296 | .412 | 4 | 6 | 18 |
| Michael Harris L | 183 | .240 | .265 | .380 | 3 | 5 | 39 |
| Mauricio Dubón R | 115 | .292 | .342 | .406 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| Mike Yastrzemski L | 104 | .138 | .204 | .223 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| Austin Riley R | 101 | .260 | .297 | .417 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| Eli White R | 96 | .244 | .292 | .444 | 5 | 6 | 24 |
| Drake Baldwin L | 95 | .299 | .358 | .460 | 4 | 7 | 15 |
| Joey Bart R | 86 | .306 | .419 | .472 | 3 | 14 | 26 |
| Ha-Seong Kim R | 60 | .286 | .333 | .375 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| Jorge Mateo R | 39 | .205 | .205 | .282 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| Dominic Smith L | 27 | .200 | .259 | .280 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Rowdy Tellez L | 24 | .050 | .208 | .050 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
The Braves' active pool brings 6 RHB, 6 LHB, and Albies as a switch hitter -- all face the left-handed Liberatore. The platoon table runs in the Braves' favor: Olson L is .281 / .333 / .459 vs LHP in 2025 across 216 PA with 6 HR -- the loudest left-handed bat in either lineup vs LHP. Baldwin L .299 / .358 / .460 in 95 PA is the other punishing left-handed sample. On the right side, Dubón R .292 / .342 / .406 (115 PA), Bart R .306 / .419 / .472 (86 PA), and Riley R .260 / .297 / .417 (101 PA) all carry workable-to-strong 2025 vs LHP lines. Albies S is .277 / .296 / .412 in 186 PA. The structural weak points: Yastrzemski L (.138 in 104 PA) and Tellez L (.050 in 24 PA, tiny). Smith L (.200 in 27 PA) and Mateo R (.205 in 39 PA) are the other below-line bats.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | vs RHB | 515 | .265 | .304 | .426 | .730 | 16 | 93 |
| Matthew Liberatore | vs LHB | 133 | .274 | .348 | .410 | .758 | 3 | 29 |
| Martín Pérez | vs RHB | 171 | .218 | .316 | .381 | .697 | 5 | 30 |
| Martín Pérez | vs LHB | 57 | .145 | .175 | .255 | .430 | 1 | 14 |
Both starters throw left-handed, but the 2025 platoon tables read in opposite directions. Liberatore's lines run nearly even -- vs RHB (515 PA, .265 / .304 / .426 / .730 OPS) is actually the larger and slightly more permissive sample than vs LHB (133 PA, .274 / .348 / .410 / .758 OPS). The .758 OPS to LHB is unusual for a left-hander and explains why Olson, Baldwin, and Harris are real threats tonight. Pérez is the conventional shape and then some: .218 / .316 / .381 / .697 OPS vs RHB across 171 PA, but the vs LHB line is .145 / .175 / .255 / .430 OPS in 57 PA, 14 K, 2 BB -- elite suppression. The Cardinals' 6 LHB walk into a sample-sized but loud wipeout profile.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | Away | 334 | 76.0 | 4.03 | 59 | 26 | 11 |
| Matthew Liberatore | Home | 314 | 75.2 | 3.69 | 63 | 14 | 8 |
| Martín Pérez | Away | 105 | 25.1 | 4.62 | 12 | 9 | 4 |
| Martín Pérez | Home | 123 | 30.2 | 2.35 | 32 | 13 | 2 |
Tonight's game is at Truist Park -- Liberatore pitching away, Pérez pitching home. Both are in opposite halves of their 2025 ERA splits. Liberatore's 2025 away ERA was 4.03 (76.0 IP) vs 3.69 at home; the away context is his weaker (and the Cardinals are also seeing his 17-HR / 1.58-WHIP 2026 line). Pérez's 2025 home ERA was 2.35 (30.2 IP) vs 4.62 away; he is in his stronger context. Structurally, the venue tilts the matchup toward Pérez.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | TTO1 | 264 | .237 | .376 | .657 | 8 | 56 | 15 |
| Matthew Liberatore | TTO2 | 252 | .310 | .511 | .871 | 9 | 40 | 17 |
| Matthew Liberatore | TTO3 | 132 | .244 | .353 | .641 | 2 | 26 | 8 |
| Martín Pérez | TTO1 | 102 | .187 | .308 | .573 | 3 | 19 | 9 |
| Martín Pérez | TTO2 | 93 | .229 | .410 | .711 | 2 | 18 | 8 |
| Martín Pérez | TTO3 | 33 | .143 | .286 | .559 | 1 | 7 | 5 |
Liberatore's 2025 second pass through the order is the structural seam: 252 PA at .310 / .511 / .871 OPS with 9 HR -- the slug-heavy spike from a .657 OPS first pass into a .871 OPS second pass is the cliff to circle. The third pass actually recovers to .641 OPS in 132 PA, but that 132-PA bucket presumes he is still in the game after the second-pass damage. Pérez's first pass is his strength: .187 / .308 / .573 OPS in 102 PA. The second pass climbs to .229 / .410 / .711 OPS in 93 PA -- a smaller cliff than Liberatore's, but still real, and a window the Cardinals need to find before Pérez gets through it.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero is the elite arm in this group at 88.5% (26 IR, 3 scored) -- the leverage call if Liberatore exits with men on. McGreevy is 3-for-3 on a tiny sample. Svanson 50.0% (13 of 26 scored) and Graceffo 54.5% (5 of 11) are well below league average -- the danger arms when traffic is on. O'Brien sits at 70.0% (10 IR, 3 scored), close to league average. Leahy's 62.1% (29 IR, 11 scored) is a 2025 bullpen-mode sample; he has moved into the rotation this year.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | 463 | 39.1% | 31.3% | 27.6% |
| Martín Pérez | 154 | 40.3% | 39.0% | 20.1% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- ATL
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ozzie Albies | .236 | .598 | .076 |
| Drake Baldwin | .201 | .641 | .118 |
| Joey Bart | .280 | .745 | .098 |
| Mauricio Dubón | .222 | .597 | .099 |
| Michael Harris | .230 | .593 | .101 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | .265 | .647 | .000 |
| Jorge Mateo | .261 | .500 | .176 |
| Matt Olson | .261 | .682 | .154 |
| Austin Riley | .310 | .684 | .094 |
| Dominic Smith | .343 | .571 | .111 |
| Rowdy Tellez | .235 | .558 | .092 |
| Eli White | .286 | .455 | .089 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | .202 | .589 | .092 |
Liberatore's 2025 profile is roughly neutral (39.1% GB / 31.3% FB / 27.6% LD on 463 BIP) -- below the 47.0% GB benchmark, with a relatively high line-drive rate. The Braves' 2025 batted-ball profile is heavily LD-driven on the AVG-by-type table: Albies .598 on line drives, Baldwin .641, Bart .745, Olson .682, Riley .684 -- nearly the whole pool turns line drives into hits at premium rates. Combined with Liberatore's 27.6% LD% allowed, the structural concern is the line-drive lane. Pérez 2025 is a slight grounder (40.3% GB / 39.0% FB / 20.1% LD) -- the lower LD% allowed (20.1%) is the path through the Cardinals' 6 LHB tonight.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 15 | 75.2 | 3.93 | .279 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 12 | 63.2 | 4.10 | .259 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 2 | 11.0 | 2.45 | .225 | -- | -- |
Tonight's scheduled catcher per the Cardinals lineup card is Jimmy Crooks (position C, order 7). Pagés (15 G / 75.2 IP / 3.93 ERA) is the high-IP pairing with Liberatore in the 2025 sample. Pozo (12 G / 63.2 IP / 4.10 ERA) is NOT on the current Cardinals active roster -- those innings are reference context only. The Crooks-Liberatore pairing is just 2 G / 11.0 IP at 2.45 ERA and .225 opponent AVG -- the smallest pairing in the dataset, but also the cleanest ERA. A thin-pairing battery is its own scouting angle: pop-time calibration and signal sequencing are still being built, particularly against a Braves running game (Harris 20 SB, Mateo 15 SB, Albies 14 SB, White 10 SB in 2025) that has multiple live threats up and down the order.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Michael Harris: 20 SB / 6 CS (76.9% success). The Braves' top running threat in center field.
Jorge Mateo: 15 SB / 2 CS (88.2% success). Efficient runner off the bench/middle infield rotation.
Ozzie Albies: 14 SB / 3 CS (82.4% success). The second baseman runs with discipline.
Eli White: 10 SB / 1 CS (90.9% success). High-rate runner with limited volume.
Mike Yastrzemski: 7 SB / 2 CS (77.8% success). Veteran with situational green light.
Ha-Seong Kim: 6 SB / 2 CS (75.0% success). Middle-of-the-pack threat.
Mauricio Dubón: 3 SB / 0 CS (100.0% success). Efficient on a small sample.
Dominic Smith: 2 SB / 0 CS (100.0% success). Token runner.
Austin Riley: 2 SB / 1 CS (66.7% success). Power profile; runs rarely.
Rowdy Tellez: 1 SB / 0 CS (100.0% success). Cosmetic.
Matt Olson: 1 SB / 0 CS (100.0% success). Cosmetic.
Joey Bart: 1 SB / 1 CS (50.0% success). Cosmetic.
The Crooks-Liberatore pairing is thin (2 G / 11.0 IP in the 2025 sample). The running game is the live variable any time Harris, Mateo, Albies, or White reaches.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 107 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Lars Nootbaar | RF | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Jimmy Crooks | C | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Lars Nootbaar | CF | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.967 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Tonight's defensive alignment per the Cardinals lineup card: Wetherholt at 2B, Burleson at 1B, Gorman at 3B, Winn at SS, Nootbaar in LF, Church in CF, Walker in RF, Crooks behind the plate, Herrera DH. Winn's primary 2026 fielding sample is the standout (129 G at SS, .994 Fld%, 64 DP) -- the structural backstop on the left side. Walker has 108 G at RF (.981 Fld%, 4 E) -- the deepest sample at his position tonight. Burleson at 1B brings 50 G with 27 DP and a .990 Fld%. Wetherholt's 2B and Gorman's 3B do not appear in the 2026 fielding sample shown (utility rotation through earlier in the season). With a Braves lineup that turns line drives into hits at high rates (Bart .745 LD, Albies .598, Olson .682), the outfield's reads and route efficiency are the variable.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Truist Park has played as a moderately hitter-leaning venue historically -- park-factor numerics are not in the available 2K data; treat as a hitter-friendly context until the head-to-head sample builds out.
Recent head-to-head (Cardinals W-L vs ATL): 2025 2-4, 2024 4-2, 2023 2-4, 2022 3-4. A losing record in three of the last four seasons. The Cardinals open Game 1 of a 3-game series at Truist Park tonight.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar | 583 | 119 | 20.4% | 64 | 11.0% |
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 46 | 17 | 37.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
2025 strikeout rates: Crooks (37.0%) and Walker (31.8%) are the high-K bats. Church (27.7%) is also above the league benchmark of 22.1% K%. Nootbaar (20.4%), Winn (19.0%), Herrera (18.7%), and Burleson (14.5%) are at or under the benchmark. Pérez's 2025 vs LHB K rate is the structural concern (14 K in 57 PA); the bottom-third lefties (Crooks, Gorman, Church) are where Pérez piles up easy outs tonight.
Braves
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | 724 | 176 | 24.3% | 91 | 12.6% |
| Ozzie Albies | 667 | 94 | 14.1% | 55 | 8.2% |
| Michael Harris | 641 | 128 | 20.0% | 16 | 2.5% |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 558 | 108 | 19.4% | 72 | 12.9% |
| Austin Riley | 447 | 128 | 28.6% | 27 | 6.0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 446 | 68 | 15.2% | 38 | 8.5% |
| Mauricio Dubón | 398 | 42 | 10.6% | 24 | 6.0% |
| Joey Bart | 332 | 93 | 28.0% | 40 | 12.0% |
| Rowdy Tellez | 312 | 83 | 26.6% | 17 | 5.4% |
| Eli White | 271 | 70 | 25.8% | 11 | 4.1% |
| Dominic Smith | 225 | 42 | 18.7% | 15 | 6.7% |
| Ha-Seong Kim | 191 | 39 | 20.4% | 16 | 8.4% |
| Jorge Mateo | 83 | 30 | 36.1% | 4 | 4.8% |
2025 strikeout rates: Mateo (36.1%), Bart (28.0%), Riley (28.6%), Tellez (26.6%), White (25.8%) are all above the league 22.1% K%. Dubón (10.6%) and Albies (14.1%) are the contact anchors. The standout discipline profile is Olson (12.6% BB%) -- combined with 24.3% K%, he is the patient slugger Liberatore has to navigate. Yastrzemski (12.9% BB%) and Bart (12.0% BB%) are the other strong walk-rate bats. Harris's 2.5% BB% is the most aggressive plate approach in the pool -- attack him with strikes.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Lars Nootbaar | 376 | 39.1% | 35.4% | 25.5% |
| Iván Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 27 | 37.0% | 44.4% | 18.5% |
2025 contact mix: Burleson, Winn, and Nootbaar all live in the 39-42% GB / 33-35% FB pocket -- they put the ball in the air at roughly average rates. Herrera 52.6% GB and Walker 48.9% GB lean toward grounders. Church's 67.6% GB in a 37-BIP sample is the extreme -- vs Pérez's 40.3% GB profile, the grounder pile-up is likely. Crooks' 44.4% FB% (27 BIP, tiny) is the outlier in the lineup.
Braves
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ozzie Albies | 493 | 38.7% | 37.5% | 23.7% |
| Michael Harris | 460 | 52.8% | 23.7% | 23.5% |
| Matt Olson | 420 | 42.9% | 31.0% | 26.2% |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 345 | 33.0% | 40.9% | 26.1% |
| Drake Baldwin | 318 | 51.6% | 23.9% | 24.5% |
| Mauricio Dubón | 313 | 43.1% | 35.5% | 21.4% |
| Austin Riley | 272 | 36.8% | 35.3% | 27.9% |
| Rowdy Tellez | 189 | 42.9% | 34.4% | 22.8% |
| Joey Bart | 188 | 53.2% | 21.8% | 25.0% |
| Eli White | 173 | 48.6% | 26.0% | 25.4% |
| Dominic Smith | 157 | 44.6% | 28.7% | 26.8% |
| Ha-Seong Kim | 126 | 38.9% | 34.1% | 27.0% |
| Jorge Mateo | 48 | 47.9% | 35.4% | 16.7% |
2025 contact mix: Yastrzemski (40.9% FB) and Albies (37.5% FB) are the fly-ball-leaning bats in the pool. Liberatore's 31.3% FB profile and 17 HR in 77.2 IP in 2026 is the structural concern -- balls in the air are leaving the yard. Harris (52.8% GB), Bart (53.2% GB), Baldwin (51.6% GB) are the GB-leaning Braves; Riley and Albies are the most balanced contact profiles. The LD% across the room (Riley 27.9%, Smith 26.8%, Kim 27.0%, Olson 26.2%, Yastrzemski 26.1%) is uniformly elevated -- Liberatore's 27.6% LD% allowed in 2025 is the matching figure that has to come down for him to escape.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | 151.2 | 122 | 18.8% | 40 | 6.2% | 3.05 |
| Martín Pérez | 56.0 | 44 | 19.3% | 22 | 9.6% | 2.00 |
2025 baselines: Liberatore 18.8% K% / 6.2% BB% / 3.05 K/BB across 151.2 IP. Pérez 19.3% K% / 9.6% BB% / 2.00 K/BB across 56.0 IP. 2026 to date: Liberatore has slipped to a 5.56 ERA / 1.58 WHIP / 17 HR line across 77.2 IP -- the strikeouts (70 K) are intact but the contact damage is structural. Pérez has tightened to 3.00 ERA / 1.13 WHIP across 72.0 IP -- his 27 BB in 72.0 IP suggests the walk rate is still elevated, but his hits allowed (54 in 72.0 IP) is the suppression headline.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
Herrera vs Pérez. Herrera R is .330 / .455 / .660 vs LHP in 2025 across 124 PA with 9 HR (Section 2C). Pérez's 2025 vs RHB line is .218 / .316 / .381 / .697 OPS (Section 2D). Herrera has no career row vs Pérez in the BvP sample (Section 2A) -- a profile bet, not a history bet. The platoon mismatch is the cleanest 1-vs-1 in the matchup card.
Olson vs Liberatore. Olson L is .281 / .333 / .459 vs LHP in 2025 with 6 HR in 216 PA (Section 2C). Liberatore's 2025 vs LHB line is .274 / .348 / .410 / .758 OPS (Section 2D) -- the platoon table runs the wrong direction for the lefty. Olson is also 1-for-6 in their career BvP (Section 2B) -- cosmetic. Liberatore's 2026 HR rate (17 in 77.2 IP) is the structural risk against the loudest left-handed bat in the pool.
Baldwin vs Liberatore. Baldwin L is .299 / .358 / .460 vs LHP in 2025 with 4 HR in 95 PA (Section 2C). He is also 2-for-2 in their career BvP (Section 2B). The combination of a strong platoon line, a 12.0% BB% reasonable contact profile, and a cosmetic but undefeated history hook makes Baldwin the under-the-radar danger.
Harris on the bases vs the Crooks-Liberatore battery. Harris L 20 SB / 6 CS in 2025 (76.9% success, Section 2I). The Crooks-Liberatore pairing is 2 G / 11.0 IP at 2.45 ERA (Section 2H) -- a thin sample. With Mateo (88.2%), Albies (82.4%), and White (90.9%) all live behind him, the running game tilts the middle innings any time the top of the order reaches.
X-factor: Liberatore's second pass through the order. 2025 TTO2 line: 252 PA at .310 / .511 / .871 OPS with 9 HR (Section 2E). The jump from a .657 OPS first pass to a .871 OPS second pass is the structural cliff. If the Cardinals do not push Liberatore through the order quickly with the right-handed bats in the first time through (Herrera, Walker, Winn), the Braves get their best swings in innings 4-6.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Iván Herrera performed against Martín Pérez in their career?
2. How has Matthew Liberatore fared against Matt Olson in their career?
3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Michael Harris II in their career?
4. What are Matthew Liberatore's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Matt Olson's splits vs LHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Truist Park in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025