NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Brewers50-30-L1
Cubs45-386.5W1
Cardinals42-388.0L4
Pirates41-4210.5L2
Reds39-4211.5W2

NL EAST STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Braves49-32-L1
Phillies46-374.0L1
Marlins44-396.0W4
Nationals42-428.5W1
Mets35-4815.0W1

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

DateOppH/AResult
Jun 27MIAHomeL 1-5
Jun 26MIAHomeL 0-4
Jun 24ARIHomeL 4-9
Jun 23ARIHomeL 3-4
Jun 22ARIHomeW 3-2
Jun 21KCAwayW 12-10
Jun 19KCAwayL 5-6
Jun 18KCAwayL 6-14
Jun 17SDHomeL 1-6
Jun 16SDHomeW 3-2

STARTING PITCHERS

Kyle Leahy (R, STL): 2026 to date -- 5-4, 4.24 ERA, 76.1 IP, 62 K, 28 BB, 1.51 WHIP across 15 GS. 2025 baseline: 88.0 IP, 22.0% K, 7.7% BB, 2.86 K/BB. 2025 vs LHB OPS .701, vs RHB OPS .589 -- the right-handed contact bats are the easier outs. 2025 home/away split is stark: 4.47 ERA at home across 44.1 IP, 2.68 ERA on the road -- pitching at Busch today.

Tyler Phillips (R, MIA): 2026 to date -- 1-2, 3.09 ERA, 58.1 IP, 49 K, 30 BB, 1.37 WHIP across 5 GS. 2025 baseline: 77.2 IP, 16.6% K, 7.7% BB, 2.17 K/BB. Walk rate has spiked in 2026 (11.9% BB% vs 7.7% in 2025). 2025 vs LHB line .195 / .291 / .316 / .607 OPS in 151 PA -- six left-handed Cardinals bats this afternoon. 2025 away ERA 2.27 across 39.2 IP -- on the road in St. Louis today.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-06-27)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
1Wetherholt2BL.304.860
2HerreraDHR.203.705
3Burleson1BL.341.907
4WalkerRFR.298.949
5NootbaarLFL.100.569
6WinnSSR.209.592
7CrooksCL.3331.052
8Gorman3BL----
9ChurchCFL.257.586

Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).

Marlins (Projected from 2026-06-27)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
NoneNavarretoCR.000.000
NoneRuizRFR.188.701
NoneConineLFL.100.650
NoneHernándezLFR.234.728
NoneMarseeCFL.265.798
NoneSanoja3BR.276.674
NoneMackCL.280.653
NoneStowersLFL.215.654
NoneJiménez3BR.000.133
NoneLopezSSR.300.642
NoneCaissieRFL.298.852
NoneEdwards2BS.301.837

Handedness: 6 RHB (Navarreto, Ruiz, Hernández, Sanoja, Jiménez, Lopez), 5 LHB (Conine, Marsee, Mack, Stowers, Caissie), 1 SHB (Edwards).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster-move data is available for today.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Alec Burleson1111.0001.0001.000000
Jordan Walker110.000.000.000001
Iván Herrera110.000.000.000001

Small sample: Alec Burleson (1 PA), Jordan Walker (1 PA), Iván Herrera (1 PA).

Only three Cardinals carry any career row against Phillips, and every row is a single PA. Burleson 1-for-1 with a hit, Walker 0-for-1 with a strikeout, Herrera 0-for-1 with a strikeout -- cosmetic. The Cardinals are essentially facing Phillips blind, so the matchup is decided by Phillips' 2025 vs LHB profile (.195 / .291 / .316) rather than any history hook.

Bench note: Wetherholt, Nootbaar, Winn, Crooks, Gorman, Church -- no career rows vs Phillips. No bench BvP history either (Pagés, Fermín, Velázquez, Torres, Jordan -- no rows).

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Otto Lopez220.000.000.000001

Small sample: Otto Lopez (2 PA).

One career row: Lopez 0-for-2 with a strikeout. The rest of the Marlins' projected pool (Edwards, Stowers, Sanoja, Hernández, Marsee, Conine, Caissie, Mack, Navarreto, Jiménez, Ruiz) is facing Leahy without a history hook. With no leverage on history, the matchup leans on Leahy's 2025 vs LHB / vs RHB profile (.252 / .337 / .364 vs LHB; .238 / .270 / .319 vs RHB).

Bench note: No additional bench BvP rows vs Leahy outside Lopez.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Alec Burleson L419.296.353.478153259
Lars Nootbaar L403.249.340.394104772
Masyn Winn R374.251.309.36872371
Iván Herrera R328.268.343.399102466
Jordan Walker R289.200.263.29142194
Nathan Church L51.114.216.1821314
Jimmy Crooks L38.108.132.1620015

Six left-handed bats (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church) and three right-handed bats (Herrera, Walker, Winn) -- all face the right-handed Phillips. Burleson L is the cleanest 2025 vs RHP line at .296 / .353 / .478 in 419 PA. Nootbaar L brings .249 / .340 with 47 BB in 403 PA -- the patience profile is the secondary path. Walker R is the roughest 2025 vs RHP line at .200 / .263 / .291 with 94 K in 289 PA. Church L and Crooks L are tiny 2025 vs RHP samples (51 and 38 PA) and both AVG under .115 -- Wetherholt has no 2025 vs RHP sample in this dataset.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Xavier Edwards B421.306.368.39133557
Otto Lopez R403.270.333.413123252
Kyle Stowers L356.297.377.5972439106
Javier Sanoja R209.249.288.39931222
Heriberto Hernández R170.270.347.43961641
Jakob Marsee L153.274.359.43721630
Griffin Conine L63.224.286.3792519
Owen Caissie L27.192.222.3461111
Leo Jiménez R11.000.000.000002
Brian Navarreto R8.286.250.429002
Esteury Ruiz R5.250.400.250011

The Marlins' projected pool has six right-handed bats, five lefties, and Edwards as a switch hitter -- all face the right-handed Leahy. Stowers L is the slug profile at .297 / .377 / .597 vs RHP in 2025 with 24 HR in 356 PA -- by far the loudest bat in the room and the angle that produced 2 RBI off Pallante yesterday. Edwards S is .306 / .368 / .391 vs RHP in 421 PA -- the contact engine. Lopez R is .270 / .333 / .413 with 12 HR. Caissie L (27 PA) and Jiménez R (11 PA) are tiny 2025 samples; Mack has no 2025 vs RHP sample on file.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

PitchervsPAAVGOBPSLGOPSHRK
Kyle Leahyvs LHB163.252.337.364.701337
Kyle Leahyvs RHB200.238.270.319.589243
Tyler Phillipsvs LHB151.195.291.316.607324
Tyler Phillipsvs RHB162.253.290.383.673528

Both pitchers are right-handers whose 2025 splits run the conventional direction -- stronger vs same-handed bats. Leahy in 2025 was tighter vs RHB (.238 / .270 / .319 / .589 OPS in 200 PA) and slightly more permissive vs LHB (.252 / .337 / .364 / .701 OPS, 19 BB in 163 PA). The Marlins' 5 LHB + 1 SHB pool tilts the at-bats toward Leahy's weaker side. Phillips' 2025 vs LHB line is the standout: .195 / .291 / .316 / .607 OPS, but with 18 BB in 151 PA -- the suppression is real, the walks are real. STL's 6 LHB walk into both halves of that profile.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

PitcherSplitBFIPERAKBBHR
Kyle LeahyAway17343.22.6846132
Kyle LeahyHome19044.14.4734153
Tyler PhillipsAway16239.22.2730173
Tyler PhillipsHome15138.03.322275

Today's game is at Busch Stadium -- Leahy pitching home, Phillips pitching away. Both are in opposite halves of their 2025 ERA splits. Leahy's 2025 home ERA was 4.47 (44.1 IP) vs 2.68 on the road; he is in his weaker context. Phillips' 2025 away ERA was 2.27 (39.2 IP) vs 3.32 at home; he is in his stronger context. Structurally, the venue tilts the matchup toward Phillips.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PitcherTTOPAAVGSLGOPSHRKBB
Kyle LeahyTTO1355.247.341.64557628
Kyle LeahyTTO28.125.250.375040
Tyler PhillipsTTO1298.230.350.64275022
Tyler PhillipsTTO215.154.385.652122

Both starters' 2025 first pass through the order is the meaningful sample -- Leahy 355 PA (.247 / .645 OPS), Phillips 298 PA (.230 / .642 OPS). Nearly identical first-pass profiles. The TTO2 rows are tiny in both cases (Leahy 8 PA, Phillips 15 PA) -- they are 2025 bullpen-only appearances rather than meaningful starter samples, and neither line should drive an editorial call today. The decision point is whether either starter gets through the second pass cleanly at all -- both are predominantly first-pass arms in this 2025 dataset.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

RelieverIRScoredStrand%
Kyle Leahy291162.1%
JoJo Romero26388.5%
Matt Svanson261350.0%
Gordon Graceffo11554.5%
Riley O'Brien10370.0%
Michael McGreevy30100.0%

League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero is the elite arm in this group at 88.5% (26 IR, 3 scored) -- the leverage call if a STL starter exits with men on. McGreevy is 3-for-3 on a tiny sample. Svanson 50.0% (13 of 26 scored) and Graceffo 54.5% (5 of 11) are the danger arms -- well below league average. O'Brien sits at 70.0% (10 IR, 3 scored), close to league average. Leahy's 62.1% (29 IR, 11 scored) is his bullpen-mode sample and not relevant to today's start.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (2025)

PitcherBIPGB%FB%LD%
Kyle Leahy24944.2%26.9%27.7%
Tyler Phillips22757.3%23.3%18.9%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (2025) -- MIA

HitterGB AVGLD AVGFB AVG
Owen Caissie.000.500.250
Griffin Conine.192.750.100
Xavier Edwards.290.560.126
Heriberto Hernández.325.725.077
Leo Jiménez.100.000.000
Otto Lopez.227.542.079
Jakob Marsee.278.683.186
Brian Navarreto.286--.333
Esteury Ruiz.429.000.000
Javier Sanoja.287.443.045
Kyle Stowers.271.696.178

Phillips runs a heavy 2025 GB profile (57.3% on 227 BIP) -- well above the league benchmark of 47.0% GB%. Leahy is closer to neutral at 44.2% GB on 249 BIP. The Marlins' projected pool is the GB-leaning side: Lopez (50.4% GB 2025), Edwards (47.9% GB 2025), Sanoja (47.3% GB 2025), and Conine (50.0% GB 2025) are all in the high-grounder pocket -- those at-bats end softly into a Leahy GB profile that is near league average. The Cardinals' side leans the other way: Nootbaar (39.1% GB 2025), Winn (39.6% GB 2025), and Burleson (42.0% GB 2025) hit fewer grounders, and Phillips' 57.3% GB profile is the structural counterweight -- expect a lot of one-hop contact early.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

CatcherGIPERAAVGOBPSLG
Pedro Pagés4362.03.05.225----
Yohel Pozo1316.02.25.259----
Jimmy Crooks46.18.53.346----
Iván Herrera43.06.00.308----

Tonight's scheduled catcher per the Cardinals lineup card is Jimmy Crooks (position C, order 7). Pagés (43 G / 62.0 IP / 3.05 ERA) is the high-IP, low-ERA pairing with Leahy in the 2025 sample. Pozo (13 G / 16.0 IP / 2.25 ERA) is NOT on the current Cardinals active roster -- those innings are reference context only. The Crooks-Leahy 2025 sample is just 6.1 IP at 8.53 ERA and a .346 opponent AVG -- the smallest pairing in the dataset and the loudest negative line. A thin-pairing battery is its own scouting angle: unfamiliar pop-time calibration and signal sequencing, particularly in the first pass through the order against an Edwards-Lopez top of the order that runs aggressively.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Xavier Edwards: 27 SB / 7 CS (79.4% success). MIA's primary running threat at the top of the order.

Otto Lopez: 15 SB / 6 CS (71.4% success). Second runner in the top half.

Jakob Marsee: 14 SB / 6 CS (70.0% success). Speed in the middle of the order.

Javier Sanoja: 6 SB / 5 CS (54.5% success). Stole two yesterday off Pallante / Crooks -- but the career success rate is a coin flip.

Kyle Stowers: 5 SB / 1 CS (83.3% success). Power bat with a small but efficient running sample.

Esteury Ruiz: 4 SB / 0 CS (100.0% success). Pinch-run candidate.

Heriberto Hernández: 1 SB / 1 CS (50.0% success). Token threat.

Crooks-Leahy is a thin battery in the 2025 sample (6.1 IP) -- the running game is the live variable any time Edwards, Lopez, Marsee, or Stowers reaches.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

PlayerPOSGDPEFld%
Masyn WinnSS1296430.994
Jordan WalkerRF108240.981
Lars NootbaarLF107001.000
Alec Burleson1B502740.990
Alec BurlesonLF41001.000
Alec BurlesonRF34110.983
Lars NootbaarRF23001.000
Nathan ChurchCF18001.000
Jimmy CrooksC14001.000
Iván HerreraC14010.989
Lars NootbaarCF12010.967
Nathan ChurchRF7010.833
Nathan ChurchLF5001.000
Iván HerreraLF4001.000
Alec BurlesonP100--

Tonight's defensive alignment per the Cardinals lineup card: Wetherholt at 2B, Burleson at 1B, Gorman at 3B, Winn at SS, Nootbaar in LF, Church in CF, Walker in RF, Crooks behind the plate, Herrera DH. Winn's primary 2026 fielding sample is the standout (129 G at SS, .994 Fld%, 64 DP). Walker has logged 108 G at RF (.981 Fld%, 4 E) -- the deepest sample at his position tonight. Wetherholt's 2B and Gorman's 3B do not appear in the 2026 fielding sample shown (utility rotation through earlier in the season). The Phillips GB profile (57.3% in 2025) puts a lot of one-hops on the left side -- Winn's range is the structural backstop.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Busch Stadium has played as a roughly neutral venue historically -- park-factor numerics are not in the available 2K data; treat as neutral context until the head-to-head sample builds out.

Recent head-to-head (Cardinals W-L vs MIA): 2025 3-3, 2024 3-3, 2023 4-3, 2022 4-2. A dead-even rivalry in 2024 and 2025. The current series sits at MIA leading 2-0 with today's matchup deciding the sweep.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Lars Nootbaar58311920.4%6411.0%
Alec Burleson5447914.5%397.2%
Masyn Winn53710219.0%346.3%
Iván Herrera4508418.7%439.6%
Jordan Walker39612631.8%297.3%
Nathan Church651827.7%34.6%
Jimmy Crooks461737.0%00.0%

2025 strikeout rates: Crooks (37.0%) and Walker (31.8%) are the high-K bats. Church (27.7%) is also above the league benchmark of 22.1% K%. Nootbaar (20.4%), Winn (19.0%), Herrera (18.7%), and Burleson (14.5%) are at or under the benchmark. The bottom third of the order -- Crooks, Gorman, Church -- is where Phillips' elevated 2026 K% (19.4% vs 16.6% baseline) is most likely to land.

Marlins

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Xavier Edwards6198814.2%497.9%
Otto Lopez5948213.8%447.4%
Kyle Stowers45712527.4%4810.5%
Javier Sanoja3424112.0%195.6%
Heriberto Hernández2947726.2%3110.5%
Jakob Marsee2344820.5%229.4%
Griffin Conine862529.1%78.1%
Leo Jiménez32825.0%26.3%
Owen Caissie271140.7%13.7%
Esteury Ruiz23834.8%28.7%
Brian Navarreto15320.0%00.0%

2025 strikeout rates: Caissie (40.7%, 27 PA) and Ruiz (34.8%, 23 PA) are the highest, but on small samples. Among the meaningful samples Conine (29.1%), Stowers (27.4%), and Hernández (26.2%) are above the league 22.1% K%. Sanoja's 12.0% K% in 342 PA is the contact anchor in the middle. Edwards (14.2%) and Lopez (13.8%) are the high-contact 1-2 -- Leahy will not pile up easy K's against the top of the order. Stowers's combination of slug (.597 vs RHP) and elevated K% (27.4%) is the danger-bat profile: he punishes mistakes, but the punch-out path exists.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Alec Burleson39842.0%33.4%24.6%
Masyn Winn37639.6%34.0%26.3%
Lars Nootbaar37639.1%35.4%25.5%
Iván Herrera28552.6%21.8%25.6%
Jordan Walker23148.9%29.4%21.6%
Nathan Church3767.6%21.6%10.8%
Jimmy Crooks2737.0%44.4%18.5%

2025 contact mix: Burleson, Winn, and Nootbaar all live in the 39-42% GB / 33-35% FB pocket -- they put the ball in the air enough to use Phillips' 57.3% GB-leaning profile against the grain. Crooks's 44.4% FB% (small sample, 27 BIP) is the outlier in the lineup. Church's 67.6% GB% in a 37-BIP sample is the extreme -- against a GB-heavy starter, that compounds into ground-out traffic.

Marlins

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Xavier Edwards45347.9%24.5%27.6%
Otto Lopez44650.4%25.6%24.0%
Javier Sanoja25847.3%25.6%27.1%
Kyle Stowers24943.0%29.3%27.7%
Heriberto Hernández16945.6%30.8%23.7%
Jakob Marsee15646.2%27.6%26.3%
Griffin Conine5250.0%19.2%30.8%
Leo Jiménez2050.0%30.0%20.0%
Owen Caissie1428.6%28.6%42.9%
Esteury Ruiz1163.6%27.3%9.1%
Brian Navarreto1070.0%30.0%0.0%

2025 contact mix: Lopez (50.4% GB) and Sanoja (47.3% GB) feed grounders into Leahy's 44.2% GB profile -- those at-bats end softly to the Winn-Wetherholt-Burleson infield. Edwards (47.9% GB, 27.6% LD) is the line-drive engine at the top of the order. Stowers's 43.0% GB / 27.7% LD mix is the most balanced contact profile in the room -- combined with his .597 SLG vs RHP, that line-drive rate is the elevated extra-base risk.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

PitcherIPKK%BBBB%K/BB
Kyle Leahy88.08022.0%287.7%2.86
Tyler Phillips77.25216.6%247.7%2.17

2025 baselines: Leahy 22.0% K% / 7.7% BB% / 2.86 K/BB. Phillips 16.6% K% / 7.7% BB% / 2.17 K/BB. Identical walk rates in 2025; Leahy holds the K-rate edge. The 2026 to-date pictures: Leahy 18.3% K% / 8.3% BB% across 76.1 IP -- slightly diminished from the 2025 baseline but in the same shape. Phillips 19.4% K% / 11.9% BB% across 58.1 IP -- the K rate has climbed, but the walk rate has jumped considerably above the 2025 baseline. Phillips' walks are the structural seam to attack today.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Burleson vs Phillips. Burleson L is .296 / .353 / .478 vs RHP in 2025 across 419 PA with 15 HR (Section 2C). Phillips' 2025 vs LHB line is .195 / .291 / .316 (Section 2D), and his 2026 BB% has spiked to 11.9% (Section 2N) -- this is the cleanest 1-vs-1 mismatch in the matchup card. Burleson is also 1-for-1 against Phillips in their career (Section 2A), but the 1-PA sample is cosmetic.

Stowers vs Leahy. Stowers L is .297 / .377 / .597 vs RHP in 2025 with 24 HR (Section 2C). Leahy's 2025 vs LHB line is .252 / .337 / .364 / .701 OPS (Section 2D) -- workable, but Stowers's 27.4% K% (Section 2L) is the one path to a quiet AB. Stowers drove in 2 of yesterday's 5 MIA runs off Pallante; Leahy is also right-handed.

Edwards on the bases vs the Crooks-Leahy battery. Edwards is 27-for-34 SB in 2025 (79.4% success, Section 2I). The Crooks-Leahy pairing is just 6.1 IP together in the 2025 sample at 8.53 ERA (Section 2H). Any time Edwards reaches against Leahy, the running game is the live variable -- and Marsee (14 SB), Lopez (15 SB), and Stowers (5 SB, 83.3%) are all live behind him.

X-factor: Phillips' first pass through the order. Phillips' 2025 first-pass OPS is .642 in 298 PA (Section 2E) -- the meaningful sample. The Cardinals have not solved him in the first time through, so the front-half innings are where the run-scoring structure stays low. If Burleson and Nootbaar do not find traffic in their first PA off him, Phillips can run his 57.3% GB profile (Section 2G) through quietly.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Alec Burleson performed against Tyler Phillips in their career?

2. How has Kyle Leahy fared against Kyle Stowers in their career?

3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Xavier Edwards in their career?

4. What are Kyle Leahy's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Kyle Stowers's splits vs RHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?

700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025