NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Brewers50-29-W5
Cubs44-387.5L1
Cardinals42-378.0L3
Pirates41-4110.5L1
Reds38-4212.5W1

NL EAST STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Braves49-31-W1
Phillies46-364.0W4
Marlins43-397.0W3
Nationals41-429.5L4
Mets34-4816.0L7

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

DateOppH/AResult
Jun 26MIAHomeL 0-4
Jun 24ARIHomeL 4-9
Jun 23ARIHomeL 3-4
Jun 22ARIHomeW 3-2
Jun 21KCAwayW 12-10
Jun 19KCAwayL 5-6
Jun 18KCAwayL 6-14
Jun 17SDHomeL 1-6
Jun 16SDHomeW 3-2
Jun 15SDHomeW 3-0

STARTING PITCHERS

Andre Pallante (R, STL): 2026 to date -- 9-4, 3.59 ERA, 82.2 IP, 64 K, 25 BB, 1.19 WHIP across 15 GS. 2025 baseline: 162.2 IP, 15.5% K, 8.7% BB, 1.79 K/BB. Extreme 2025 ground-ball profile (61.2% GB on 515 BIP).

Ryan Gusto (R, MIA): 2026 to date -- 0-2, 6.00 ERA, 18.0 IP, 16 K, 7 BB, 1.61 WHIP across 4 GS. 2025 baseline: 101.2 IP, 21.4% K, 7.9% BB, 2.69 K/BB. 2025 home/road split was stark: 3.34 ERA away across 35.0 IP, 6.48 at home across 66.2 IP -- tonight he is on the road in St. Louis.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-06-26)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
1Wetherholt2BL.304.860
2HerreraDHR.203.705
3Burleson1BL.341.901
4WalkerRFR.301.959
5NootbaarLFL.100.569
6WinnSSR.197.572
7CrooksCL.3331.052
8Gorman3BL----
9ChurchCFL.257.586

Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).

Marlins (Projected from 2026-06-26)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
NoneNavarretoCR.000.000
NoneRuizRFR.188.701
NoneConineLFL.111.717
NoneHernándezLFR.239.743
NoneMarseeCFL.265.798
NoneSanoja3BR.263.651
NoneMackCL.280.653
NoneStowersLFL.190.605
NoneJiménez3BR.000.133
NoneLopezSSR.299.640
NoneCaissieRFL.304.866
NoneEdwards2BS.296.832

Handedness: 6 RHB (Navarreto, Ruiz, Hernández, Sanoja, Jiménez, Lopez), 5 LHB (Conine, Marsee, Mack, Stowers, Caissie), 1 SHB (Edwards).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster-move data is available for today.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

No data available for this section.

No career BvP rows between any Cardinals batter and Ryan Gusto -- this is a clean first look on both sides. With Gusto holding only 101.2 IP through 2025 and 18.0 IP in 2026 to date, the entire Cardinals lineup is facing him without a history hook.

Bench note: No bench BvP history vs Gusto in the career sample.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Xavier Edwards660.000.000.000001
Heriberto Hernández663.500.500.500001
Jakob Marsee331.333.333.333001
Javier Sanoja330.000.000.000000
Otto Lopez330.000.000.000000

Small sample: Xavier Edwards (6 PA), Heriberto Hernández (6 PA), Jakob Marsee (3 PA), Javier Sanoja (3 PA), Otto Lopez (3 PA).

Five Marlins carry career rows against Pallante and all five are small-sample (3-6 PA). Hernández is 3-for-6 (.500) and Marsee is 1-for-3 (.333) -- eye-catching but below the 10-PA bar for a danger flag. Edwards, Sanoja, and Lopez are a combined 0-for-12. The bulk of the order is essentially facing Pallante blind.

Bench note: No additional bench BvP rows vs Pallante outside the five shown.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Alec Burleson L419.296.353.478153259
Lars Nootbaar L403.249.340.394104772
Masyn Winn R374.251.309.36872371
Iván Herrera R328.268.343.399102466
Jordan Walker R289.200.263.29142194
Nathan Church L51.114.216.1821314
Jimmy Crooks L38.108.132.1620015

Tonight's lineup is six left-handed bats (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church) and three right-handed bats (Herrera, Walker, Winn) -- all face the right-handed Gusto. Burleson L is the cleanest 2025 vs RHP line at .296 / .353 / .478 in 419 PA. Walker R has the roughest 2025 vs RHP line at .200 / .263 / .291 in 289 PA with 94 K. Church L and Crooks L have small 2025 vs RHP samples (51 and 38 PA) and both AVG under .115.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Xavier Edwards B421.306.368.39133557
Otto Lopez R403.270.333.413123252
Kyle Stowers L356.297.377.5972439106
Javier Sanoja R209.249.288.39931222
Heriberto Hernández R170.270.347.43961641
Jakob Marsee L153.274.359.43721630
Griffin Conine L63.224.286.3792519
Owen Caissie L27.192.222.3461111
Leo Jiménez R11.000.000.000002
Brian Navarreto R8.286.250.429002
Esteury Ruiz R5.250.400.250011

The Marlins carry six right-handed bats, five lefties, and Edwards as a switch hitter -- all face the right-handed Pallante. Stowers L is the slug profile at .297 / .377 / .597 vs RHP in 2025 with 24 HR in 356 PA -- by far the loudest bat in the room. Edwards S is .306 / .368 / .391 vs RHP in 421 PA. Caissie L (27 PA) and Jiménez R (11 PA) are 2025-sample minnows.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

PitchervsPAAVGOBPSLGOPSHRK
Ryan Gustovs LHB239.321.391.580.9711452
Ryan Gustovs RHB214.236.290.333.623345
Andre Pallantevs LHB347.266.329.434.7631060
Andre Pallantevs RHB368.275.345.429.7741151

Gusto is the platoon story tonight. 2025 vs LHB: .321 / .391 / .580 / .971 OPS, 14 HR in 239 PA. 2025 vs RHB: .236 / .290 / .333 / .623 OPS, 3 HR in 214 PA. The Cardinals' six left-handed bats walk into the larger end of that split. Pallante's 2025 vs L/R lines are essentially flat (.763 vs LHB, .774 vs RHB) -- no platoon edge for the Marlins' lefty bats to lean on.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

PitcherSplitBFIPERAKBBHR
Ryan GustoAway14935.03.3433123
Ryan GustoHome30466.26.48642414
Andre PallanteAway37584.24.89673511
Andre PallanteHome34078.05.42442710

Tonight's game is at Busch Stadium. Gusto is pitching away from loanDepot: his 2025 away ERA was 3.34 across 35.0 IP, versus 6.48 at home in 66.2 IP -- nearly two runs of separation, road clearly his stronger context. Pallante's home/road lines are closer: 5.42 at home, 4.89 away in 2025 -- a mild home penalty he is wearing tonight.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PitcherTTOPAAVGSLGOPSHRKBB
Ryan GustoTTO1221.260.393.72354718
Ryan GustoTTO2171.305.565.930104014
Ryan GustoTTO361.281.421.7492104
Andre PallanteTTO1279.266.393.72063521
Andre PallanteTTO2270.309.487.86884627
Andre PallanteTTO3166.217.408.69173014

Both starters carry a 2025 second-pass-through-the-order spike. Gusto's second pass (TTO2): .305 / .565 / .930 OPS, 10 HR in 171 PA. Pallante's second pass (TTO2): .309 / .487 / .868 OPS, 8 HR in 270 PA. Innings 4-6 are the structural risk on both sides. Notably, Pallante's third pass through the order (TTO3) AVG drops to .217 -- if he survives the fourth-through-sixth window, the late-inning profile holds up.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

RelieverIRScoredStrand%
Kyle Leahy291162.1%
JoJo Romero26388.5%
Matt Svanson261350.0%
Gordon Graceffo11554.5%
Riley O'Brien10370.0%
Michael McGreevy30100.0%

League average IR strand rate is approximately 68.8%. JoJo Romero (L) is the trust arm at 88.5% strand on 26 inherited runners (3 scored) -- elite work. McGreevy is 100% strand on a 3-runner sample (small). Matt Svanson is 50.0% strand on 26 IR (13 scored) and Gordon Graceffo is 54.5% on 11 IR -- both below league average. Leahy at 62.1% strand also sits under league average. The Romero/Svanson fork is the bullpen call to watch in the middle innings.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

PitcherBIPGB%FB%LD%
Ryan Gusto29838.6%36.9%24.2%
Andre Pallante51561.2%18.3%19.6%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- MIA

HitterGB AVGLD AVGFB AVG
Owen Caissie.000.500.250
Griffin Conine.192.750.100
Xavier Edwards.290.560.126
Heriberto Hernández.325.725.077
Leo Jiménez.100.000.000
Otto Lopez.227.542.079
Jakob Marsee.278.683.186
Brian Navarreto.286--.333
Esteury Ruiz.429.000.000
Javier Sanoja.287.443.045
Kyle Stowers.271.696.178

Pallante is an extreme ground-ball pitcher: 61.2% GB profile on 515 BIP. The Marlins' GB profiles cluster mid-pack -- Lopez 50.4%, Edwards 47.9%, Sanoja 47.3%, Stowers 43.0%. The structural worry is the line-drive bucket: Stowers's career LD AVG is .696, Hernández .725, Marsee .683. When Pallante misses spots, those are the bats that turn a borderline pitch into damage. Gusto's 38.6% GB profile is more fly-ball / line-drive prone -- which lines up poorly against Burleson (24.6% 2025 LD%) and Winn (26.3%).

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

CatcherGIPERAAVGOBPSLG
Pedro Pagés1576.14.60.257----
Yohel Pozo837.26.93.303----
Jimmy Crooks523.14.24.258----
Iván Herrera523.24.56.271----

Tonight's scheduled Cardinals catcher per the projected lineup is Jimmy Crooks (batting 7). Crooks and the active staff have 5 games and 23.1 IP together at a 4.24 ERA and .258 AVG allowed -- a working pairing, not a primary one. Pages (15 G, 76.1 IP, 4.60 ERA) is the staff's most-used 2026-to-date catcher but is not in tonight's lineup. Pozo (8 G, 6.93 ERA) is not on the active roster carried in this report. The Crooks-Pallante pairing is fresh enough to be its own scouting angle, especially against the Marlins' running game.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

The Marlins are the running team tonight. Xavier Edwards leads with 27 SB / 7 CS at 79.4% success in 2025. Otto Lopez is 15 SB / 6 CS (71.4%). Jakob Marsee is 14 SB / 6 CS (70.0%). Kyle Stowers is a quieter threat at 5 SB / 1 CS (83.3%). Esteury Ruiz is 4-for-4 on the year (100%). With Crooks behind the plate in what is a fresh-ish battery with Pallante, the running game is a live variable any time Edwards or Lopez reaches.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

PlayerPOSGDPEFld%
Masyn WinnSS1296430.994
Jordan WalkerRF108240.981
Lars NootbaarLF107001.000
Alec Burleson1B502740.990
Alec BurlesonLF41001.000
Alec BurlesonRF34110.983
Lars NootbaarRF23001.000
Nathan ChurchCF18001.000
Jimmy CrooksC14001.000
Iván HerreraC14010.989
Lars NootbaarCF12010.967
Nathan ChurchRF7010.833
Nathan ChurchLF5001.000
Iván HerreraLF4001.000
Alec BurlesonP100--

Tonight's projected Cardinals defensive alignment: Winn at SS, Walker in RF, Nootbaar in LF, Burleson at 1B, Wetherholt at 2B, Gorman at 3B, Church in CF, Crooks behind the plate. Winn's 2026-to-date fielding is the headliner: 129 G at SS, 64 DP, 3 E, .994 Fld%. Walker has 4 E in 108 RF starts (.981). Burleson is .990 at first across 50 games. The available 2026 fielding sample does not carry rows for Wetherholt at 2B, Gorman at 3B, or Crooks at C as a primary -- those are tonight's positions per the lineup card, but the fielding context for those spots is thin in the current sample.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Cardinals vs Marlins last four seasons: 2025 split 3-3, 2024 split 3-3, 2023 Cardinals 4-3, 2022 Cardinals 4-2 -- a near-even rivalry. Busch Stadium has historically played as a roughly neutral venue; the available 2K data does not carry a numeric park factor for tonight, so treat the venue as neutral context.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Lars Nootbaar58311920.4%6411.0%
Alec Burleson5447914.5%397.2%
Masyn Winn53710219.0%346.3%
Iván Herrera4508418.7%439.6%
Jordan Walker39612631.8%297.3%
Nathan Church651827.7%34.6%
Jimmy Crooks461737.0%00.0%

Walker and Crooks are the 2025 K% red flags. Walker's 2025 K% is 31.8% in 396 PA. Crooks's 2025 K% is 37.0% in a 46-PA sample and his 2025 BB% is 0.0%. Church's 2025 K% is 27.7% in 65 PA. Burleson's 2025 line is the cleanest contact profile: 14.5% K, 7.2% BB across 544 PA. Nootbaar's 2025 BB% is 11.0% -- the best discipline number in the lineup.

Marlins

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Xavier Edwards6198814.2%497.9%
Otto Lopez5948213.8%447.4%
Kyle Stowers45712527.4%4810.5%
Javier Sanoja3424112.0%195.6%
Heriberto Hernández2947726.2%3110.5%
Jakob Marsee2344820.5%229.4%
Griffin Conine862529.1%78.1%
Leo Jiménez32825.0%26.3%
Owen Caissie271140.7%13.7%
Esteury Ruiz23834.8%28.7%
Brian Navarreto15320.0%00.0%

Marlins 2025 K% extremes: Caissie 40.7% and Ruiz 34.8% (both small samples), Conine 29.1%, Stowers 27.4%, Hernández 26.2%. The contact bat in the lineup is Sanoja at 12.0% 2025 K% across 342 PA. Among 2025 BB% leaders: Stowers and Hernández tie at 10.5%, Marsee 9.4%, Conine 8.1% -- the on-base discipline lives mostly at the top of the heart of the order.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Alec Burleson39842.0%33.4%24.6%
Masyn Winn37639.6%34.0%26.3%
Lars Nootbaar37639.1%35.4%25.5%
Iván Herrera28552.6%21.8%25.6%
Jordan Walker23148.9%29.4%21.6%
Nathan Church3767.6%21.6%10.8%
Jimmy Crooks2737.0%44.4%18.5%

Church's 2025 GB% is 67.6% on a 37-BIP sample -- by far the most ground-ball-prone bat in the lineup, into Pallante's 61.2% GB profile. Herrera (52.6% 2025 GB) and Walker (48.9%) are also GB-leaning. Crooks's 2025 FB% is 44.4% on 27 BIP -- the lone loft bat in the lineup. Burleson and Nootbaar carry the heaviest 2025 LD% (24.6% and 25.5%) -- those are the bats most likely to turn a Gusto mistake into damage.

Marlins

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Xavier Edwards45347.9%24.5%27.6%
Otto Lopez44650.4%25.6%24.0%
Javier Sanoja25847.3%25.6%27.1%
Kyle Stowers24943.0%29.3%27.7%
Heriberto Hernández16945.6%30.8%23.7%
Jakob Marsee15646.2%27.6%26.3%
Griffin Conine5250.0%19.2%30.8%
Leo Jiménez2050.0%30.0%20.0%
Owen Caissie1428.6%28.6%42.9%
Esteury Ruiz1163.6%27.3%9.1%
Brian Navarreto1070.0%30.0%0.0%

The Marlins' 2025 GB%/FB%/LD% lines cluster mid-pack. Ruiz 63.6% GB and Navarreto 70.0% GB are extreme but tiny samples (11 and 10 BIP). Caissie's 2025 LD% is 42.9% on 14 BIP -- small but loud. Conine's 2025 LD% is 30.8% on 52 BIP and Stowers's 2025 LD% is 27.7% on 249 BIP. Most of the lineup will be hitting Pallante's worm-killer to the infield; the danger is when Stowers or Caissie squares one into the line-drive bucket.

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

PitcherIPKK%BBBB%K/BB
Andre Pallante162.211115.5%628.7%1.79
Ryan Gusto101.29721.4%367.9%2.69

Gusto's 2025 K/BB ratio is 2.69 (21.4% K, 7.9% BB across 453 BFP). Pallante's 2025 K/BB ratio is 1.79 (15.5% K, 8.7% BB across 715 BFP). Gusto generates more whiffs per appearance; Pallante leans on contact management and the ground ball. 2026 to date, Pallante is at 3.59 ERA across 82.2 IP; Gusto is at 6.00 ERA across 18.0 IP. The 2025 baseline says Gusto has more strikeout stuff -- the question tonight is whether that stuff plays against a lefty-heavy lineup given his 2025 .971 OPS vs LHB.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Cardinals' top of the order vs Gusto. Wetherholt L, Herrera R, Burleson L, Walker R, Nootbaar L -- five different swings against the same right-hander whose 2025 vs LHB OPS is .971. Burleson (.296 / .353 / .478 vs RHP in 2025) and Nootbaar (.249 / .340 / .394 vs RHP, 11.0% 2025 BB%) are the upside bats in that pocket.

Stowers vs Pallante. Stowers's 2025 vs RHP slug is .597 with 24 HR in 356 PA. Pallante is a worm-killer (61.2% GB profile), but his 2025 TTO2 OPS (second pass through the order) is .868. If Stowers gets a Pallante mistake the second time through, this is where the Marlins' damage comes from.

Edwards on the bases. Edwards's 2025 SB success rate is 79.4% on 34 attempts (27 SB, 7 CS). With Crooks behind the plate in a 5-game battery with the staff so far (23.1 IP together), the running game is a live variable on every Edwards walk or single.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Alec Burleson performed against Ryan Gusto in their career?

2. How has Andre Pallante fared against Kyle Stowers in their career?

3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Xavier Edwards in their career?

4. What are Andre Pallante's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Kyle Stowers's splits vs RHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?

700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025