NL CENTRAL STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 49-29 | - | W4 |
| Cubs | 44-37 | 6.5 | W4 |
| Cardinals | 42-36 | 7.0 | L2 |
| Pirates | 41-40 | 9.5 | W2 |
| Reds | 37-42 | 12.5 | L3 |
NL EAST STANDINGS
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 48-31 | - | L4 |
| Phillies | 45-36 | 4.0 | W3 |
| Marlins | 42-39 | 7.0 | W2 |
| Nationals | 41-41 | 8.5 | L3 |
| Mets | 34-47 | 15.0 | L6 |
RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)
| Date | Opp | H/A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24 | ARI | Home | L 4-9 |
| Jun 23 | ARI | Home | L 3-4 |
| Jun 22 | ARI | Home | W 3-2 |
| Jun 21 | KC | Away | W 12-10 |
| Jun 19 | KC | Away | L 5-6 |
| Jun 18 | KC | Away | L 6-14 |
| Jun 17 | SD | Home | L 1-6 |
| Jun 16 | SD | Home | W 3-2 |
| Jun 15 | SD | Home | W 3-0 |
| Jun 14 | MIN | Away | L 4-5 |
STARTING PITCHERS
Michael McGreevy (R) -- 3-6, 3.35 ERA, 83.1 IP, 53 K, 20 BB, 1.15 WHIP. 12 HR allowed across 15 starts. 2025 batted-ball baseline runs ground-heavy (49.2% GB) with a vulnerable LHB platoon line (.318 / .368 / .543 / .911 OPS over 190 PA, 9 HR allowed). Home/road is the headline split: 5.22 ERA at Busch (50.0 IP) versus 3.55 on the road (45.2 IP).
Max Meyer (R) -- 8-0, 2.80 ERA, 90.0 IP, 102 K, 34 BB, 1.16 WHIP. A 27.1% K rate carries the season-to-date line, but supporting splits flag two cracks. 2025 vs LHB is his strength (.237 / .287 / .389 / .676 OPS, 143 PA); 2025 vs RHB is the exposure (.315 / .373 / .531 / .904 OPS, 7 HR in 142 PA). On the road, 5.54 ERA over 26.0 IP; at home, 3.72 over 38.2 IP. He has not lost yet, but the warning lights are on.
EXPECTED LINEUPS
Cardinals (Projected from 2026-06-25)
| # | Player | Pos | Bats | 2026 RISP AVG | 2026 RISP OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wetherholt | 2B | L | .309 | .875 |
| 2 | Herrera | DH | R | .206 | .715 |
| 3 | Burleson | 1B | L | .341 | .901 |
| 4 | Walker | RF | R | .304 | .969 |
| 5 | Nootbaar | LF | L | .100 | .540 |
| 6 | Winn | SS | R | .200 | .580 |
| 7 | Crooks | C | L | .333 | 1.052 |
| 8 | Gorman | 3B | L | -- | -- |
| 9 | Church | CF | L | .265 | .603 |
Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).
Marlins (From active roster)
12 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.
| Player | Pos | Bats |
|---|---|---|
| Navarreto | C | R |
| Ruiz | RF | R |
| Conine | LF | L |
| Hernández | LF | R |
| Marsee | CF | L |
| Sanoja | 3B | R |
| Mack | C | L |
| Stowers | LF | L |
| Jiménez | 3B | R |
| Lopez | SS | R |
| Caissie | RF | L |
| Edwards | 2B | S |
Handedness: 6 RHB (Navarreto, Ruiz, Hernández, Sanoja, Jiménez, Lopez), 5 LHB (Conine, Marsee, Mack, Stowers, Caissie), 1 SHB (Edwards).
INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES
No injury or roster-move updates available for tonight.
2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iván Herrera | 3 | 3 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Walker | 2 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .500 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alec Burleson | 2 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Masyn Winn | 2 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .500 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Small sample: Iván Herrera (3 PA), Jordan Walker (2 PA), Alec Burleson (2 PA), Masyn Winn (2 PA).
All four samples are tiny (2-3 PA). The only positive note is Walker (1-for-2 with extra bases), which is a single swing and not a signal. Herrera 0-for-3, Burleson 0-for-2, Winn with a BB. The Cardinals are essentially facing Meyer blind.
Bench note: No bench BvP history vs Meyer in the career sample -- Wetherholt, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, and Church each enter with no prior at-bats against him.
2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER
| Player | PA | AB | H | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Otto Lopez | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jakob Marsee | 3 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .333 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Heriberto Hernández | 3 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .333 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Small sample: Xavier Edwards (3 PA), Otto Lopez (3 PA), Jakob Marsee (3 PA), Heriberto Hernández (3 PA).
Edwards, Lopez, and Marsee each carry 1-for-3 against McGreevy, with Marsee's hit going for extra bases (.333 / .333 / 1.000). Hernández is 0-for-2 with a K. Every line is a sub-10 PA sample -- noise, not signal -- but Marsee's slug line is the lone power hint.
Bench note: No bench BvP rows in the career sample for Navarreto, Ruiz, Conine, Sanoja, Mack, Stowers, Jiménez, or Caissie against McGreevy.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 | 32 | 59 |
| Lars Nootbaar L | 403 | .249 | .340 | .394 | 10 | 47 | 72 |
| Masyn Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 | 23 | 71 |
| Iván Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 | 24 | 66 |
| Jordan Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 | 21 | 94 |
| Nathan Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| Jimmy Crooks L | 38 | .108 | .132 | .162 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
Six LHB in the projected lineup (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church) all face a RHP in Meyer. Burleson is the headline 2025 vs RHP bat (.296 / .353 / .478 in 419 PA, 15 HR); Nootbaar pairs an on-base profile with modest slug (.249 / .340 / .394 in 403 PA). The three RHB -- Herrera, Walker, Winn -- carry the platoon edge tonight, with Walker the slowest of the three to date (.200 / .263 / .291 in 289 PA).
Crooks (.108 in 38 PA vs RHP in 2025) and Church (.114 in 51 PA) carry the smallest and weakest profiles -- the bottom of the order against a high-K starter is the trap inning to track.
2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards B | 421 | .306 | .368 | .391 | 3 | 35 | 57 |
| Otto Lopez R | 403 | .270 | .333 | .413 | 12 | 32 | 52 |
| Kyle Stowers L | 356 | .297 | .377 | .597 | 24 | 39 | 106 |
| Javier Sanoja R | 209 | .249 | .288 | .399 | 3 | 12 | 22 |
| Heriberto Hernández R | 170 | .270 | .347 | .439 | 6 | 16 | 41 |
| Jakob Marsee L | 153 | .274 | .359 | .437 | 2 | 16 | 30 |
| Griffin Conine L | 63 | .224 | .286 | .379 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| Owen Caissie L | 27 | .192 | .222 | .346 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| Leo Jiménez R | 11 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Brian Navarreto R | 8 | .286 | .250 | .429 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Esteury Ruiz R | 5 | .250 | .400 | .250 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
McGreevy's 2025 vs LHB line (.318 / .368 / .543) is the matchup story. Five LHB in the active pool: Conine, Marsee, Mack, Stowers, Caissie. Stowers is the danger bat (.297 / .377 / .597 with 24 HR in 356 PA vs RHP) -- a slash line superior to any 2025 platoon row the Cardinals carry. Marsee (.274 / .359 / .437 in 153 PA) and Conine (.224 / .286 / .379 in 63 PA) round out the LHB threat.
Edwards is a switch-hitter listed at .306 / .368 / .391 vs RHP in 421 PA -- the leadoff on-base profile if he hits leadoff tonight. The six RHB in the pool are uneven: Lopez (.270 / .333 / .413) and Sanoja (.249 / .288 / .399) carry real samples; Jiménez (0-for-10 in 11 PA) and Navarreto (8 PA) are the smallest-sample edges.
2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS
| Pitcher | vs | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McGreevy | vs LHB | 190 | .318 | .368 | .543 | .911 | 9 | 27 |
| Michael McGreevy | vs RHB | 210 | .225 | .255 | .325 | .580 | 3 | 31 |
| Max Meyer | vs LHB | 143 | .237 | .287 | .389 | .676 | 5 | 38 |
| Max Meyer | vs RHB | 142 | .315 | .373 | .531 | .904 | 7 | 30 |
Both starters split sharply along handedness, and both splits matter tonight. McGreevy 2025 vs LHB: .911 OPS in 190 PA, 9 HR allowed; vs RHB: .580 OPS, 3 HR allowed. Meyer 2025 vs LHB: .676 OPS in 143 PA; vs RHB: .904 OPS, 7 HR allowed.
Map to the lineups: McGreevy faces a Marlins pool with 5 LHB (his weakness) and 6 RHB. The Cardinals run 6 LHB (Meyer's strength) versus 3 RHB (Meyer's exposure). The platoon mismatch is symmetric -- each starter's hard side hits the lineup he is facing.
2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McGreevy | Away | 188 | 45.2 | 3.55 | 24 | 9 | 6 |
| Michael McGreevy | Home | 212 | 50.0 | 5.22 | 34 | 11 | 6 |
| Max Meyer | Away | 121 | 26.0 | 5.54 | 23 | 13 | 3 |
| Max Meyer | Home | 164 | 38.2 | 3.72 | 45 | 7 | 9 |
Tonight is at Busch Stadium. McGreevy pitching at home -- his weaker context this year (5.22 ERA over 50.0 IP versus 3.55 on the road over 45.2 IP). Meyer pitching away -- also his weaker context (5.54 ERA over 26.0 IP versus 3.72 at home over 38.2 IP). Both starters carry the home/road label that has been the rougher half of their season.
2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS | HR | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McGreevy | TTO1 | 154 | .282 | .465 | .792 | 5 | 22 | 8 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO2 | 152 | .271 | .417 | .715 | 4 | 14 | 6 |
| Michael McGreevy | TTO3 | 94 | .241 | .379 | .677 | 3 | 22 | 6 |
| Max Meyer | TTO1 | 108 | .222 | .505 | .792 | 8 | 35 | 8 |
| Max Meyer | TTO2 | 108 | .267 | .386 | .692 | 2 | 24 | 6 |
| Max Meyer | TTO3 | 69 | .377 | .508 | .943 | 2 | 9 | 6 |
Meyer's 2025 third pass through the order is the deepest crack: 69 PA, .377 / .435 / .508 / .943 OPS. The first pass is power-allowed (8 HR in 108 PA, .505 SLG) but contact-suppressed (35 K, .222 AVG); the second pass is the calmest (.692 OPS). If the Cardinals push him into innings 7+, that is the inning window to attack.
McGreevy's 2025 TTO line moves the opposite direction: .792 OPS first pass, .715 OPS second pass, .677 OPS third pass. The early innings are the swing window against McGreevy, not the late innings.
2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| JoJo Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| Matt Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| Gordon Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Riley O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Michael McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
Romero is the elite IR arm (88.5% strand over 26 inherited runners, 17 entries). Leahy carries the most volume (29 IR over 21 entries) at a 62.1% strand. The danger sleeves are Svanson (50.0% strand, 13 of 26 scored) and Graceffo (54.5%) -- both well below the league benchmark (~68.8%). Which reliever inherits traffic tonight matters disproportionately.
2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP
Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McGreevy | 307 | 49.2% | 25.7% | 24.4% |
| Max Meyer | 183 | 52.5% | 24.6% | 21.9% |
Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- MIA
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Caissie | .000 | .500 | .250 |
| Griffin Conine | .192 | .750 | .100 |
| Xavier Edwards | .290 | .560 | .126 |
| Heriberto Hernández | .325 | .725 | .077 |
| Leo Jiménez | .100 | .000 | .000 |
| Otto Lopez | .227 | .542 | .079 |
| Jakob Marsee | .278 | .683 | .186 |
| Brian Navarreto | .286 | -- | .333 |
| Esteury Ruiz | .429 | .000 | .000 |
| Javier Sanoja | .287 | .443 | .045 |
| Kyle Stowers | .271 | .696 | .178 |
McGreevy's career profile is ground-heavy (49.2% GB); Meyer's career profile is even more so (52.5% GB). The Marlins career batted-ball table flags Hernández (.325 GB AVG), Edwards (.290 GB AVG), and Sanoja (.287 GB AVG) as hitters who do real damage on grounders -- a ground-ball pitcher facing a ground-ball-active lineup creates a high-traffic infield script.
The line-drive column is where the slug lives: Stowers (.696 LD AVG), Marsee (.683 LD AVG), Conine (.750 LD AVG -- only 16 LD AB) are the career line-drive bats. When McGreevy misses the worm-burner, those are the bats squaring it up.
2H: BATTERY PAIRING
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pagés | 14 | 80.2 | 4.24 | .266 | -- | -- |
| Jimmy Crooks | 2 | 8.2 | 9.35 | .385 | -- | -- |
| Yohel Pozo | 1 | 5.2 | 0.00 | .056 | -- | -- |
McGreevy's season battery work is anchored by Pagés (14 G, 80.2 IP, 4.24 ERA, .266 AVG against). Tonight's projected lineup carries Jimmy Crooks behind the plate -- a much smaller sample (2 G, 8.2 IP, 9.35 ERA, .385 AVG against) and the secondary pairing of McGreevy's season. The Yohel Pozo line (1 G, 5.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, .056 AVG against) is too small to lean on, and Pozo is not on the active roster tonight.
A fresh-leaning McGreevy/Crooks battery against the most active running group in the Marlins pool (Edwards 27 SB, Lopez 15 SB, Marsee 14 SB in 2025) is its own scouting angle. Pop-time calibration, signal sequencing, and pitch-call rhythm in the first pass through the order are the early signals to track.
2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP
Marlins running game leaders (2025):
- Xavier Edwards: 27 SB, 7 CS, 79.4% success
- Otto Lopez: 15 SB, 6 CS, 71.4% success
- Jakob Marsee: 14 SB, 6 CS, 70.0% success
- Javier Sanoja: 6 SB, 5 CS, 54.5% success
- Kyle Stowers: 5 SB, 1 CS, 83.3% success
- Esteury Ruiz: 4 SB, 0 CS, 100% success
- Heriberto Hernández: 1 SB, 1 CS, 50% success
The Marlins active pool carries three 70%+ base-stealers above 10 SB. Against a fresh-battery look and a ground-ball-heavy pitcher in McGreevy, the running game is a live story.
2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT
| Player | POS | G | DP | E | Fld% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn | SS | 129 | 64 | 3 | 0.994 |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 108 | 2 | 4 | 0.981 |
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 107 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 50 | 27 | 4 | 0.990 |
| Alec Burleson | LF | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | RF | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.983 |
| Lars Nootbaar | RF | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Nathan Church | CF | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Jimmy Crooks | C | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | C | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0.989 |
| Lars Nootbaar | CF | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0.967 |
| Nathan Church | RF | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.833 |
| Nathan Church | LF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Iván Herrera | LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alec Burleson | P | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Tonight's lineup writes the alignment, not the season-sample columns. Winn at SS is the anchor (129 G, 64 DP, 0.994 Fld%). Walker carries the most outfield error volume (4 E in 108 RF games, 0.981 Fld%); against a ground-ball-heavy starter in McGreevy, RF is a lower-touch spot. Nootbaar's LF line is clean (107 G, 0 E, 1.000 Fld%). Crooks, the projected starter behind the plate, has logged a clean Fld% across 14 catching games this season.
The season fielding table lists multi-position rows for Burleson (1B, LF, RF), Nootbaar (LF, RF, CF), and Church (CF, RF, LF) -- the projected lineup pegs each at a single spot for tonight.
2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Recent head-to-head is dead even: 2025 split 3-3, 2024 split 3-3, 2023 went 4-3 to the Cardinals, 2022 went 4-2 to the Cardinals. The Marlins have not taken the season series in the available career sample. Tonight kicks off the first of three at Busch.
Busch Stadium plays as a neutral-to-pitcher-leaning venue historically. The available 2K reference does not carry a numeric park factor for tonight's matchup -- treat this as a neutral venue context.
2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar | 583 | 119 | 20.4% | 64 | 11.0% |
| Alec Burleson | 544 | 79 | 14.5% | 39 | 7.2% |
| Masyn Winn | 537 | 102 | 19.0% | 34 | 6.3% |
| Iván Herrera | 450 | 84 | 18.7% | 43 | 9.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 396 | 126 | 31.8% | 29 | 7.3% |
| Nathan Church | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | 3 | 4.6% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 46 | 17 | 37.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
In 2025 K%: Walker (31.8%) and Crooks (37.0%) are the swing-and-miss outliers; Burleson (14.5%) is the contact anchor. In 2025 BB%: Nootbaar (11.0%) is the discipline lead; Crooks (0.0% in 46 PA) is the smallest patience floor.
Marlins
| Player | PA | K | K% | BB | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards | 619 | 88 | 14.2% | 49 | 7.9% |
| Otto Lopez | 594 | 82 | 13.8% | 44 | 7.4% |
| Kyle Stowers | 457 | 125 | 27.4% | 48 | 10.5% |
| Javier Sanoja | 342 | 41 | 12.0% | 19 | 5.6% |
| Heriberto Hernández | 294 | 77 | 26.2% | 31 | 10.5% |
| Jakob Marsee | 234 | 48 | 20.5% | 22 | 9.4% |
| Griffin Conine | 86 | 25 | 29.1% | 7 | 8.1% |
| Leo Jiménez | 32 | 8 | 25.0% | 2 | 6.3% |
| Owen Caissie | 27 | 11 | 40.7% | 1 | 3.7% |
| Esteury Ruiz | 23 | 8 | 34.8% | 2 | 8.7% |
| Brian Navarreto | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Contact-versus-swing-and-miss profiles in 2025 K%: Sanoja (12.0%) and Lopez (13.8%) are the contact anchors of the Marlins pool, with Edwards (14.2%) close behind. Stowers (27.4%), Hernández (26.2%), Conine (29.1%), Caissie (40.7% in 27 PA), and Ruiz (34.8% in 23 PA) are the swing-and-miss profiles. The Cardinals' best K-bait targets sit in the bottom of the order; the contact bats start at the top.
2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE
Cardinals
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 398 | 42.0% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Masyn Winn | 376 | 39.6% | 34.0% | 26.3% |
| Lars Nootbaar | 376 | 39.1% | 35.4% | 25.5% |
| Iván Herrera | 285 | 52.6% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| Jordan Walker | 231 | 48.9% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Nathan Church | 37 | 67.6% | 21.6% | 10.8% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 27 | 37.0% | 44.4% | 18.5% |
In 2025 batted-ball profiles: Herrera (52.6% GB) and Walker (48.9% GB) are the ground-heavy bats; Crooks (44.4% FB) is the fly-ball outlier. Burleson, Winn, and Nootbaar each carry a balanced LD profile around 25%.
Marlins
| Player | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards | 453 | 47.9% | 24.5% | 27.6% |
| Otto Lopez | 446 | 50.4% | 25.6% | 24.0% |
| Javier Sanoja | 258 | 47.3% | 25.6% | 27.1% |
| Kyle Stowers | 249 | 43.0% | 29.3% | 27.7% |
| Heriberto Hernández | 169 | 45.6% | 30.8% | 23.7% |
| Jakob Marsee | 156 | 46.2% | 27.6% | 26.3% |
| Griffin Conine | 52 | 50.0% | 19.2% | 30.8% |
| Leo Jiménez | 20 | 50.0% | 30.0% | 20.0% |
| Owen Caissie | 14 | 28.6% | 28.6% | 42.9% |
| Esteury Ruiz | 11 | 63.6% | 27.3% | 9.1% |
| Brian Navarreto | 10 | 70.0% | 30.0% | 0.0% |
In 2025 batted-ball profiles: Lopez (50.4% GB), Sanoja (47.3% GB), and Hernández (45.6% GB) carry the ground-leaning profiles that meet McGreevy's 49.2% GB rate -- a heavy infield script. Stowers (43.0% GB / 27.7% LD), Conine (50.0% GB / 30.8% LD), and Marsee (46.2% GB / 26.3% LD) are the line-drive contributors. Caissie's 14-BIP sample (28.6% GB, 42.9% LD) is too small to lean on.
2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE
| Pitcher | IP | K | K% | BB | BB% | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McGreevy | 95.2 | 58 | 14.5% | 20 | 5.0% | 2.90 |
| Max Meyer | 64.2 | 68 | 23.9% | 20 | 7.0% | 3.40 |
Meyer's 2025 K/BB ratio is 3.40 (23.9% K, 7.0% BB) -- a quality strikeout starter who walks more than McGreevy. McGreevy's 2025 K/BB ratio is 2.90 (14.5% K, 5.0% BB) -- a pitch-to-contact profile that depends on the defense behind him. Meyer's miss-bat advantage is one inning shaper; McGreevy's command and ground-ball rate are his.
KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST
1. Kyle Stowers vs McGreevy. Stowers' 2025 vs RHP line is .297 / .377 / .597 with 24 HR in 356 PA; McGreevy's 2025 vs LHB exposure is .318 / .368 / .543 / .911 OPS with 9 HR allowed in 190 PA. Highest-leverage single matchup in the lineup pool.
2. Jordan Walker vs Meyer. Walker is the cleanest RHB power bat in the projected lineup. Meyer's 2025 vs RHB line is .315 / .373 / .531 / .904 OPS with 7 HR in 142 PA. Walker's career 2 PA vs Meyer is 1-for-2 with extra bases (.500 / .500 / 1.000) -- meaningless sample, tilted matchup class.
3. Alec Burleson vs Meyer. Burleson is the Cardinals' top 2025 vs RHP bat (.296 / .353 / .478 in 419 PA), but he is a LHB and Meyer's vs-LHB profile is his strength (.237 / .287 / .389 / .676 OPS in 143 PA). The 1B's at-bats are the discipline test for the LHB-heavy lineup.
Watchlist:
-- Meyer's third pass through the order: 2025 TTO3 line .377 / .435 / .508 / .943 OPS over 69 PA. Innings 7+ are the window to push.
-- Fresh McGreevy/Crooks battery: Pagés has caught McGreevy in 14 of his starts (80.2 IP, 4.24 ERA). Crooks: 2 G, 8.2 IP, 9.35 ERA, .385 AVG against. Marlins running game: Edwards 27 SB, Lopez 15, Marsee 14.
-- Bullpen strand fork: Romero 88.5%, Svanson 50.0%, Graceffo 54.5%. Which arm inherits traffic decides middle innings.
-- McGreevy home/road gap: 5.22 ERA at Busch versus 3.55 on the road. Tonight is the home context.
QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES
1. How has Kyle Stowers performed against Michael McGreevy in their career?
2. How has Michael McGreevy fared against Jakob Marsee in their career?
3. How has JoJo Romero performed against Owen Caissie in their career?
4. What are Max Meyer's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?
5. What are Jordan Walker's splits vs RHP in 2025?
6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?
7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?
700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025