NL CENTRAL STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Brewers48-29-W3
Cardinals42-356.0L1
Cubs41-377.5W1
Pirates39-4010.0L1
Reds37-4111.5L2

NL WEST STANDINGS

TeamW-LGBStrk
Dodgers51-29-W2
Padres41-379.0W2
D-backs40-3910.5W1
Giants32-4618.0W1
Rockies31-4920.0L1

RECENT RESULTS (LAST 10)

DateOppH/AResult
Jun 23ARIHomeL 3-4
Jun 22ARIHomeW 3-2
Jun 21KCAwayW 12-10
Jun 19KCAwayL 5-6
Jun 18KCAwayL 6-14
Jun 17SDHomeL 1-6
Jun 16SDHomeW 3-2
Jun 15SDHomeW 3-0
Jun 14MINAwayL 4-5
Jun 13MINAwayW 9-6

STARTING PITCHERS

Matthew Liberatore (L) -- Cardinals

2026 to date: 3-4, 5.23 ERA, 1.56 WHIP across 72.1 IP. 67 K, 27 BB, 15 HR allowed -- a 20.9% K%, 8.4% BB%, 41.4% GB% line that has trended hittable in spurts.

2025 baseline (Section 2N): 18.8% K%, 6.2% BB%, 3.05 K/BB ratio over 151.2 IP. Stronger at home (3.69 ERA, 75.2 IP) than on the road (4.03 ERA). Tonight is a home start.

Mitch Bratt -- Diamondbacks

No 2026 season line available and no career data on file. The available scouting context is the throwing hand listed as blank in the matchup feed; the Cardinals will be working off live looks rather than book.

EXPECTED LINEUPS

Cardinals (Projected from 2026-06-23)

#PlayerPosBats2026 RISP AVG2026 RISP OPS
1Wetherholt2BL.309.875
2HerreraDHR.206.715
3Burleson1BL.345.911
4WalkerRFR.304.969
5NootbaarLFL.111.594
6WinnSSR.200.580
7CrooksCL.3331.052
8Gorman3BL----
9ChurchCFL.265.603

Handedness: 3 RHB (Herrera, Walker, Winn), 6 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church).

Diamondbacks (From active roster)

13 players listed from active roster pool. Actual game lineup will be 9 from this group.

PlayerPosBats
CastilloDHL
CarrollRFL
MorenoCR
PerdomoSSS
Vargas1BS
BarrosaCFS
Marte2BS
GurrielLFR
Groover1BR
Arenado3BR
SmithDHL
TawaLFR
TroyLFR

Handedness: 6 RHB (Moreno, Gurriel, Groover, Arenado, Tawa, Troy), 3 LHB (Castillo, Carroll, Smith).

INJURIES & ROSTER NOTES

No injury or roster-move data is available for today's report. The Cardinals lineup is a projection rolled forward from 2026-06-23; the Diamondbacks card is built from the active roster pool, not a confirmed lineup. Both teams are mid-series at Busch.

2A: BVP -- CARDINALS BATTERS VS OPPONENT STARTER

No data available for this section.

No career BvP rows exist for any Cardinals batter against Mitch Bratt. The starter is a true unknown: the matchup is a profile bet, not a history bet, and the entire lineup is in the same data vacuum.

Bench note: No bench BvP history vs Bratt either -- not Velazquez, Fermin, Jordan, Pages, or Torres has a recorded plate appearance.

2B: BVP -- OPPONENT BATTERS VS CARDINALS STARTER

PlayerPAABHAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Lourdes Gurriel332.667.667.667000
Geraldo Perdomo332.667.667.667000
Gabriel Moreno330.000.000.000000
Tim Tawa330.000.000.000002
Ketel Marte321.500.6671.000000

Small sample: Lourdes Gurriel (3 PA), Geraldo Perdomo (3 PA), Gabriel Moreno (3 PA), Tim Tawa (3 PA), Ketel Marte (3 PA).

Every row above is a 3-PA sample, so none of this is decisive -- but three of the five hot lines belong to hitters Liberatore will almost certainly see again: Gurriel (2-for-3), Perdomo (2-for-3), and Marte (1-for-2). The threads of familiarity favor Arizona's top of the order, which lines up with the 2025 platoon profile in Section 2C.

Bench note: No bench BvP history of note vs Liberatore in the available sample (Castillo, Vargas, Smith, Barrosa, Arenado, Groover, Troy -- no rows).

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- CARDINALS

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Alec Burleson L419.296.353.478153259
Lars Nootbaar L403.249.340.394104772
Masyn Winn R374.251.309.36872371
Iván Herrera R328.268.343.399102466
Jordan Walker R289.200.263.29142194
Nathan Church L51.114.216.1821314
Jimmy Crooks L38.108.132.1620015

Bratt's handedness is not listed, so this table is most useful as a Cardinals self-scouting lens. Against RHP in 2025, Burleson (.296/.353/.478) is the clear lead -- the only lefty in the order with a .800+ OPS sample. Herrera (.268/.343/.399) carries the RHB side. The bottom of the order has serious sample-and-skill problems: Walker .200 with 94 K in 289 PA, Church and Crooks both under .120 in small 2025 samples. If Bratt throws right-handed, the 1-2-3-4 stretch carries the offensive load.

2C: PLATOON SPLITS -- OPPONENT

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGHRBBK
Geraldo Perdomo B219.341.416.48662615
Corbin Carroll L201.246.323.48681844
Ketel Marte B185.281.378.52592125
Lourdes Gurriel R156.296.353.43051312
Nolan Arenado R112.294.339.402287
Tim Tawa R82.253.293.3331524
Gabriel Moreno R77.279.351.3971811
Ildemaro Vargas B52.260.288.380216
Jorge Barrosa B44.154.205.2821211
Pavin Smith L24.167.375.167069

Liberatore throws left; Arizona is well-stocked for the matchup. Perdomo (.341/.416/.486 vs LHP in 2025) is the toughest at-bat in either lineup tonight. Marte (.281/.378/.525), Gurriel (.296/.353/.430), and Arenado (.294/.339/.402) all sit at or above an .800 OPS vs LHP. Of the ten rows, only Barrosa and Smith carry meaningfully below-water vs-LHP lines, and both are at the bottom of the active-roster pool, not locked into the order.

2D: PITCHER PLATOON SPLITS

PitchervsPAAVGOBPSLGOPSHRK
Matthew Liberatorevs RHB515.265.304.426.7301693
Matthew Liberatorevs LHB133.274.348.410.758329

Liberatore's platoon profile is essentially neutral: .730 OPS vs RHB, .758 vs LHB. The HR damage is heavily RHB-side (16 HR in 515 PA vs 3 in 133), and Arizona's projected lineup is 6 RHB + 4 switch-hitters (Perdomo, Vargas, Marte, Barrosa) -- effectively a right-handed-leaning matchup. The switch-hitters will take their at-bats from the right side, which puts Liberatore in his higher-HR context for most of the night.

2D-HA: PITCHER HOME/AWAY SPLITS

PitcherSplitBFIPERAKBBHR
Matthew LiberatoreAway33476.04.03592611
Matthew LiberatoreHome31475.23.6963148

Tonight's game is at Busch Stadium -- Liberatore at home. His home/away gap is real and consistent: 3.69 ERA / 14 BB at home vs 4.03 ERA / 26 BB on the road, on nearly identical innings totals. The walk gap (14 vs 26 in similar BF) is the most repeatable line in this split, and it lines up neatly with an Arizona lineup that does not walk much.

2E: TTO SPLITS (TIMES THROUGH ORDER)

PitcherTTOPAAVGSLGOPSHRKBB
Matthew LiberatoreTTO1264.237.376.65785615
Matthew LiberatoreTTO2252.310.511.87194017
Matthew LiberatoreTTO3132.244.353.6412268

The cliff is between the first and second pass through the order: .657 OPS on TTO1 jumps to .871 on TTO2 in 2025 -- a steep .310 AVG and .511 SLG once hitters get a second look. By the third pass (TTO3), the line resets (.244 AVG, .641 OPS) but the data thins (132 PA). The actionable window is innings 4-6: that is where Arizona's top-of-the-order bats get their cleanest swings against him.

2F: INHERITED RUNNERS PROFILE

RelieverIRScoredStrand%
Kyle Leahy291162.1%
JoJo Romero26388.5%
Matt Svanson261350.0%
Gordon Graceffo11554.5%
Riley O'Brien10370.0%
Michael McGreevy30100.0%

League-average inherited-runner strand rate sits around 68-72%. Romero (88.5%) is the elite arm for runners-on situations; McGreevy's 100% is real but rests on only 3 inherited runners. The danger arms are Svanson (50.0%, with last night's 0.1 IP / 4 R collapse fresh on the ledger) and Graceffo (54.5%) -- both well below league average. Leahy (62.1%) is a tick below average and started yesterday's game, so today he is presumably unavailable.

2G: BATTED BALL MATCHUP

Pitcher Batted Ball Profiles (Career)

PitcherBIPGB%FB%LD%
Matthew Liberatore46339.1%31.3%27.6%

Hitter Batted Ball Results (Career) -- ARI

HitterGB AVGLD AVGFB AVG
Nolan Arenado.223.560.089
Jorge Barrosa.182.333.067
Corbin Carroll.250.681.101
Lourdes Gurriel.253.570.022
Ketel Marte.206.702.124
Gabriel Moreno.326.587.063
Geraldo Perdomo.209.684.103
Pavin Smith.308.690.162
Tim Tawa.235.500.114
Ildemaro Vargas.241.786.125

Liberatore's career GB profile is mild (39.1% GB%, 27.6% LD%) -- not a ground-ball specialist, with above-average exposure to line drives. That is a problem against this lineup: Marte (.702 LD AVG), Vargas (.786), Smith (.690), Perdomo (.684), Carroll (.681), and Moreno (.587 / .326 GB AVG) all punish line drives or pull good numbers on grounders. The line-drive band is where Arizona's hardest contact tends to land, and Liberatore lives in it more than most.

2H: BATTERY PAIRING

CatcherGIPERAAVGOBPSLG
Pedro Pagés1575.23.93.279----
Yohel Pozo1263.24.10.259----
Jimmy Crooks211.02.45.225----

Tonight's scheduled catcher is Jimmy Crooks (lineup spot 7). The battery table has only 2 G / 11.0 IP of Crooks-Liberatore work on file -- a fresh battery by any reasonable standard. Pedro Pagés (15 G, 3.93 ERA) is on the active roster as the alternative; Yohel Pozo (12 G, 4.10 ERA) is not on the active roster and so will not catch tonight. The Crooks sample's 2.45 ERA in 11 IP is too small to trust as a tendency, but the lack of pop-time / signal-sequencing reps with Liberatore is the live concern -- watch for early-count mistake calls, especially against Arizona's aggressive top of the order.

2I: BASERUNNING MATCHUP

Carroll (32 SB / 6 CS, 84.2% success) -- the live threat. With a fresh battery behind the plate, expect him to test pop times early.

Perdomo (27 SB / 6 CS, 81.8%) -- consistent runner; if he reaches as a switch-hitter against Liberatore, he is going.

Gurriel (10 SB / 4 CS, 71.4%) -- selective runner; threat in specific counts.

Tawa (8 SB / 2 CS, 80.0%) -- secondary runner if he is in the order.

Marte (4 SB / 2 CS, 66.7%), Arenado (3 SB / 0 CS, 100%), Smith (2/2, 50%), Moreno (2/2, 50%) -- low-volume runners; situational at best.

2J: DEFENSIVE CONTEXT

PlayerPOSGDPEFld%
Masyn WinnSS1296430.994
Jordan WalkerRF108240.981
Lars NootbaarLF107001.000
Alec Burleson1B502740.990
Alec BurlesonLF41001.000
Alec BurlesonRF34110.983
Lars NootbaarRF23001.000
Nathan ChurchCF18001.000
Jimmy CrooksC14001.000
Iván HerreraC14010.989
Lars NootbaarCF12010.967
Nathan ChurchRF7010.833
Nathan ChurchLF5001.000
Iván HerreraLF4001.000
Alec BurlesonP100--

Tonight's defensive alignment, per the projected lineup: Winn at SS (.994 fld%, 64 DP -- the steady infield anchor), Burleson at 1B (.990 fld% in 50 G), Wetherholt at 2B and Gorman at 3B (no fielding sample on file -- either projection or a position change from the season's primary lookup), Nootbaar in LF (1.000 in 107 G), Church in CF (1.000 in 18 G -- limited reps), and Walker in RF (.981 with 4 E in 108 G -- the weak spot in the outfield). Crooks at C (1.000 in 14 G). Carroll's 84.2% SB success rate (Section 2I) plus an unfamiliar Crooks-Liberatore battery raises the ceiling on stolen-base attempts tonight.

2K: BALLPARK CONTEXT & HEAD-TO-HEAD

Tonight's game is at Busch Stadium, which historically plays as a neutral-to-pitcher-leaning venue. The available head-to-head data does not carry a numeric park factor, so treat this as a neutral context for the matchup. The series sits at 1-1 with two games left, mirroring the recent annual splits.

Head-to-head by season: 2025 (3-3), 2024 (3-3), 2023 (3-3), 2022 (5-2 STL). Four consecutive even-or-better STL seasons, with no meaningful trend either way over the last three years.

2L: BATTER K%/BB% PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Lars Nootbaar58311920.4%6411.0%
Alec Burleson5447914.5%397.2%
Masyn Winn53710219.0%346.3%
Iván Herrera4508418.7%439.6%
Jordan Walker39612631.8%297.3%
Nathan Church651827.7%34.6%
Jimmy Crooks461737.0%00.0%

Walker (31.8% 2025 K%) and Crooks (37.0% in a 46-PA sample with zero walks) are the swing-and-miss outliers. Burleson (14.5%) is the contact anchor; Nootbaar (11.0% BB%) is the only above-average walker. Half the lineup carries small 2025 samples, so use Section 2M and the 2026 RISP table together for context.

Diamondbacks

PlayerPAKK%BBBB%
Geraldo Perdomo7208311.5%9413.1%
Corbin Carroll64215323.8%6710.4%
Ketel Marte5568314.9%6411.5%
Lourdes Gurriel5467613.9%315.7%
Nolan Arenado4364911.2%286.4%
Gabriel Moreno3095317.2%299.4%
Pavin Smith2879232.1%4114.3%
Tim Tawa2256428.4%208.9%
Ildemaro Vargas1211512.4%21.7%
Jorge Barrosa772228.6%22.6%

The top of Arizona's lineup is brutally hard to strike out: Perdomo 11.5%, Arenado 11.2%, Vargas 12.4%, Gurriel 13.9%, Marte 14.9% -- all well under the 22.1% league average. Liberatore's 18.8% 2025 K% will not generate the easy outs against the top six. Walks are the other side of the same picture: Vargas (1.7%), Barrosa (2.6%), Gurriel (5.7%), Arenado (6.4%) refuse to take free passes, which neutralizes Liberatore's improved 6.2% home BB%. Smith (32.1% K%) and Tawa (28.4%) are the bottom-of-pool strikeout candidates if either enters.

2M: BATTER BATTED BALL PROFILE

Cardinals

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Alec Burleson39842.0%33.4%24.6%
Masyn Winn37639.6%34.0%26.3%
Lars Nootbaar37639.1%35.4%25.5%
Iván Herrera28552.6%21.8%25.6%
Jordan Walker23148.9%29.4%21.6%
Nathan Church3767.6%21.6%10.8%
Jimmy Crooks2737.0%44.4%18.5%

Herrera (52.6% 2025 GB%) and Walker (48.9%) skew ground-ball; that matches against any RHP who lives at the knees. Nootbaar and Winn are balanced. Church's 67.6% GB% in 37 BIP is the most extreme but the smallest sample; treat it cautiously. Crooks's 44.4% FB% is the only outlier on the fly-ball side -- which fits the 2L profile of a high-K, no-BB, all-or-nothing 2025 sample.

Diamondbacks

PlayerBIPGB%FB%LD%
Geraldo Perdomo48440.5%32.0%27.5%
Lourdes Gurriel40540.0%33.6%26.4%
Corbin Carroll38038.9%36.3%24.7%
Ketel Marte37044.6%32.7%22.7%
Nolan Arenado34038.2%39.7%22.1%
Gabriel Moreno21541.4%29.3%29.3%
Pavin Smith14445.1%25.7%29.2%
Tim Tawa12753.5%27.6%18.9%
Ildemaro Vargas9660.4%25.0%14.6%
Jorge Barrosa4647.8%32.6%19.6%

Perdomo (27.5% 2025 LD%), Moreno (29.3%), Smith (29.2%), Gurriel (26.4%), and Marte (22.7%) all pair well with Liberatore's 27.6% career line-drive rate -- that is where Arizona's contact damage tends to live, and it is the band Liberatore lets up the most. Vargas (60.4% GB%) and Tawa (53.5%) are the ground-ball-heavy bats; Arenado is the most fly-ball-tilted (39.7%).

2N: PITCHER K%/BB% PROFILE

PitcherIPKK%BBBB%K/BB
Matthew Liberatore151.212218.8%406.2%3.05

2026 to date: 67 K, 27 BB, 20.9% K%, 8.4% BB% in 72.1 IP. 2025 baseline: 18.8% K%, 6.2% BB%, 3.05 K/BB ratio. The K rate is up modestly this year; the walk rate has crept up more sharply. Against an Arizona lineup that does not strike out and does not walk, the K/BB profile that built the 3.05 ratio in 2025 needs to hold. If walks creep in early, Liberatore is pitching toward the TTO2 cliff with traffic on.

KEY MATCHUPS & WATCHLIST

Liberatore vs Perdomo. Perdomo's .341/.416/.486 vs LHP in 2025 (Section 2C) is the strongest at-bat in either lineup tonight, his 11.5% K% (Section 2L) is the lineup's lowest, and he is 2-for-3 in the small career BvP sample (Section 2B). The bat-control profile (.684 LD AVG, Section 2G) means even outs are not free.

Liberatore vs Marte. Switch-hitter with .525 SLG vs LHP and 9 HR in the 2025 sample (Section 2C). Career BvP is 1-for-2 (Section 2B). The .702 LD AVG (Section 2G) is the highest in either lineup; he is the most likely source of the night's biggest hit.

Cardinals 1-2-3-4 vs Bratt. No career data exists for Bratt anywhere in the report -- the bench note in 2A confirms it. The top-of-the-order sequence (Wetherholt - Herrera - Burleson - Walker) is the most reliable run-production stretch in the projected lineup; Burleson's .296/.353/.478 vs RHP (Section 2C) is the clearest edge if Bratt is right-handed. The first time through is the only "clean look" the lineup is guaranteed.

Bullpen fork: Romero (88.5%) vs Svanson (50.0%). Section 2F's spread. Romero is the runners-on weapon; Svanson is the one Cardinals fans cannot watch through their fingers tonight given his 0.1 IP / 4 R line yesterday. If a tied middle inning comes down to a bullpen decision, the team's win probability hinges on which arm enters.

Crooks battery. Fresh battery (2 G / 11.0 IP with Liberatore, Section 2H). Pop-time calibration matters because Carroll (84.2% SB success, Section 2I) and Perdomo (81.8%) will probe it. First-inning steal attempt would not be a surprise.

QUICK REFERENCE -- IN-GAME QUERIES

1. How has Geraldo Perdomo performed against Matthew Liberatore in their career?

2. How has Matthew Liberatore fared against Ketel Marte in their career?

3. How has Corbin Carroll performed against JoJo Romero in their career?

4. What are Matthew Liberatore's third-time-through-the-order splits in 2025?

5. What are Geraldo Perdomo's splits vs LHP in 2025?

6. How often does JoJo Romero strand inherited runners in 2025?

7. What is the home run park factor at Busch Stadium in 2025?

700 CLARK -- POWERED BY BASES.CHAT | HISTORICAL DATA THROUGH 2025